“Brisbane will grow faster than any other `mature` world city over the
Transcription
“Brisbane will grow faster than any other `mature` world city over the
CLIENT RELEASE: MAY 2014 “Brisbane will grow faster than any other 'mature' world city over the next eight years…” Apartments in Brisbane for investment Citylife International Realty is proud to offer a few carefully selected projects each year to our clients which we consider to be excellent opportunities for investment. We are careful when doing our OWN research to try to ensure that our clients have access to investments which protect their downside as much as possible, with plenty of scope for upside over the medium to long term. We have found over the years many clients simply attend an exhibition and buy a property, without any research. They then end up disappointed, and say “Australian property is no good.” The facts are that in every market there are good investments and poor ones: Australia is no different! Research helps protect against bad decisions. There is a reason the Citylife Group has a huge repeat buyer rate. Some of the criteria we look for when researching projects to recommend include: The property must be either in an area of high population growth, or have restricted supply of land for apartments, and also be a high employment area, ideally with higher income earners. The property must be in walking distance to cafe’s shops & transport. (we like to see a high “Walk Score” ) It should be brand new, or fully renovated, to allow for maximum depreciation & therefore the biggest tax savings. It must be high quality in terms of design, materials and construction & also should have reasonable Body Corporate fees. The property must be located in an area which has a sound and long term rental growth and occupancy history. There must be a reliable, experienced and trustworthy Developer behind the project, with a good track record and great credentials. In addition to the above points, we then apply our own independent Citylife Investment Criteria. If it then stacks up, we will recommend it to our clients. “Brisbane on track to be one of the World’s most prosperous cities…” The following charts should help explain why we are now strongly recommending Brisbane as an investment location ahead of most other locations in Australia. Some of our previous recommendations include: “Run, don’t walk, into the Perth market” (2004) “Sydney is the sleeping giant of Australian property. When it awakens, which will be soon, watch out!” (2009) If you have followed the Australian market, you will know both the above markets have moved rapidly in the years following, making Sydney and Perth now Australia’s most expensive markets. 1. All projects must be located in a city with occupancy rates of 95% or higher in the current market, and, over the past 5 years ideally to show a strong trend. This generally indicates rising rentals and strong tenant demand. We have used the major cities compared to the Melbourne and Sydney CBD’s for this test. So it can be clearly seen that Australia’s cities are currently enjoying very high rental occupancy rates. (The Melbourne CBD being an exception due to a large number of small inner city apartments completed there in recent years) meaning the vacancy rate there is not ideal for investors. Occupancy Rate - Feb 2014 Source: SQM Should be 94% -95% or higher, otherwise somevacancy and decreasing rents 100.00 99.00 98.00 97.00 96.00 95.00 94.00 93.00 92.00 91.00 90.00 Melbourne CBD Brisbane Adelaide Perth Sydney CBD 2. Population growth fuels property demand. Given the relative populations of Brisbane and Perth, the growth in these cities is phenomenal even when comparing to the much larger cities of Melbourne and Sydney. Interestingly, a little known fact is that Brisbane’s population is similar or larger (and growing faster) than many of the world’s major cities, including Paris, Rome, San Francisco, Milan, Munich, Dubai, Kuala Lumpur and Zurich amongst others. Of course, these figures depend upon the local authorities’ geographical definition of the city boundaries, however, it is food for thought as some people still think of Brisbane as a small backwater. Clearly this is no longer the case! Population growth, especially if wealthy, skilled and affluent, is a major source of property price growth, especially if combined with scarcity. Brisbane will grow faster than any other 'mature' world city over the next eight years, according to an international study compiled by market analysts Jones Lang LaSalle. JLL research and consulting director Leigh Warner said it was not surprising the Queensland capital had come out on top, primarily due to the strength of the state's resources sector. As mentioned above, greater Brisbane’s population is bigger than many great cities including Paris, Rome, San Francisco, and Kuala Lumpur. The study, A New World of Cities: Redefining the Real Estate Investment Map, ranked Brisbane number one for expected gross domestic product growth from 2012 to 2020. The Brisbane Lord Mayor Graham Quir said the report showed Brisbane was on track to be one of the world's most prosperous cities. "I'm delighted that we have been identified as number one of the 20 fastest growing mature cities ahead of Singapore, Austin and Hong Kong," Cr Quirk said. 3. Prices are also very important. Brisbane offers the best per sq metre rate in Australia, excluding Adelaide, which doesn’t have the same population growth. This is a compelling argument, and in fact puts Brisbane amongst the lowest of all the major world cities, not just Australian cities. WORLD CITIES COMPARISON: 4. We try to find projects in areas which also have a low “Mortgage Stress Indicator”, to ensure that the property is affordable within that location. Mortgage stress occurs when over 1/3 of household income goes to the mortgage payments, causing households to have less disposable income left over, thus causing “stress caused by the mortgage payments “ or Mortgage Stress for short. Comparing the major cities, it’s clear that Australia overall is in a very good position, except for the major CBD areas of Melbourne and Sydney. Again, another positive indicator for Brisbane: Mortgage Stress - Mar 2014 Source: SQM, adjusted for new. 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Melbourne CBD Brisbane Adelaide Perth Sydney CBD Mortgage Repayments as a % of Household Income should be below 33%. The lower the better, meaning properties are easily affordable, likely to result in increasing demand and prices rises. Source: SQM “Brisbane to be number one for expected gross domestic product growth from 2012 to 2020 ” Rental yield Brisbane currently offers investors some of the highest rental returns of all the major cities in Australia. Rental Yield Apartments as at Mar 2014 Source: SQM 6.00% 4.00% Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Sydney As can be clearly seen from the above data, Brisbane offers superb real estate prospects for long term investors, and many market indicators show now is a perfect time to enter the market at the right price in the right location. PROPERTY CYCLE AND TIPS Specifically, the Brisbane property cycle appears to have now stated its upward trend, which new research shows is expected to last for up to the next 14 years. This creates a wonderful opportunity to invest now and reap the long term benefits. Again, like all investments, the correct selection of the location and property is critical. For information and to see the graphs on the property cycle visit: www.Citylifepropertygraphs.com WALK SCORE. Walk Score is available for any address in the United States, Canada, and Australia. Real estate experts say “walkability” helps increase rentals, occupancy and resale values. Walkscore.com has ranked the largest 3,000 cities and over 10,000 neighbourhoods so people can find a walkable home or apartment. Walk Score measures walkability based on distances to nearby restaurants, grocery stores and other amenities, plus other analysis of pedestrian friendliness. The two scores for your preferred location you should look at are: Walker’s Paradise Daily errands do not require a car Very Walkable 70–89 Most errands can be accomplished on foot 90–100 A high Walk Score can mean better investment upside. West end Brisbane: 93 Wooloongabba Brisbane: 82 PRICE. Many apartment projects proposed around Brisbane are now priced around $8,000 per sq. metre upwards across Brisbane. Look for well-located quality projects UNDER $8,000 per sq. metre. TIMING. The property clock shows Sales volumes are starting to increase; local rents have been rising & vacancies remain tight. Now is the time to act, as the Brisbane market has entered an upturn. New cyclical research shows that Brisbane is likely to entering a 14 year property upturn. For more information on this new cycle just beginning please go to www.citylifepropertygraphs.com DEMOGRAPHICS. Always look for well-appointed apartments, designed to suit future “owner occupiers” rather than JUST investors, such as currently are occurring in the Melbourne CBD, which means higher potential capital growth. UPSIDE. A large & growing local resale market; high median values; well-off local demographic & urban revival equates to great potential upside. HIGH RENTAL YIELDS. Based on recently completed projects by Citylife that are now rented, investors in Brisbane can anticipate full occupancy plus high rental returns of up to 6%, significantly higher than most other major cities in Australia. Low per square metre rates makes Brisbane some of the most desirable apartments in Australia. URBAN REDEVELOPMENT. Several areas are supported and /or have been selected by the Queensland Government for urban regeneration. Early buyers usually benefit the most in these situations. Often height limits around these areas ensure the all-important “scarcity” factor will remain, irrespective of the number of new projects approved. In fact, at the early stage of the regeneration, it is important to see a fairly large number approved to ‘kick things off.’ Probably the most exciting of these areas is Woolloongabba, located just one kilometre from Brisbane’s CBD. It is in the preliminary stages of one of the most significant redevelopment programs ever seen within Brisbane’s inner city. Woolloongabba Over the past decade Woolloongabba has seen massive investment in transport infrastructure which has resulted in the area becoming one of the most accessible inner city suburbs in Brisbane. Woolloongabba was declared by the State Government as one of only 4 priority Development Areas in Brisbane. The population is expected to triple by 2036, creating demand for more than 4,500 new dwellings by 2036. “the most significant redevelopment programs ever seen within Brisbane’s inner city” Woolloongabba Rental Levels The rental market across Woolloongabba is one of Brisbane’s stand out performers, with rent increases in both one and two bedroom apartments outperforming growth across most of Brisbane’s other suburbs. Woolloongabba is currently recording a rental yield of 5.8%, which is one of the highest gross rental yields being recorded across all of Australia’s major cities, and in fact, is amongst the highest being recorded amongst most World cities. Local employment/tenant demand Woolloongabba is located adjacent to the CBD, Southbank, and the Princess Alexandra hospital. The Mater Health Precinct is situated in the heart of Woolloongabba, and is one of Brisbane’s largest health precincts. The new $15 billion Lady Cilento Children’s hospital will open in late 2014 to become the single specialist children’s hospital for Queensland. Combined with the high level of transport infrastructure and the new proposed underground rail line, Woolloongabba enjoys strong rental demand from more the 350,000 workers and students. This massive work force, until now UNABLE to secure rental accommodation nearby work, and the restaurants and cafes nearby, will provide a ready source of quality tenants for years to come. Price rises will surely follow. These people will need to live somewhere. You may as well be the one to supply their housing. “Ranked as Brisbane’s 4th Most Affordable Location” Brisbane performance against Melbourne Finally, we have compared the average Capital Growth of a Brisbane apartment against Melbourne, over the past 10 years to December 2012, as we have not yet got final figures for 2013, to see that Brisbane has in fact out performed Melbourne. “15,000 new residents move to Brisbane each year, 25% move into the inner city” “Inner Brisbane is undersupplied by about 40% - 2,650 new dwellings needed each year yet just 1,600 supplied” As can been seen from the data and research above, we believe Brisbane offers an excellent investment opportunity to take advantage of the forthcoming upturn and enjoy a great long term investment. LIMIT OF LIABILITY, DISCLAIMER AND LEGAL NOTICES: In compiling this publication, the Publisher relies upon information supplied by a number of external sources. The publication is supplied on the basis that, while the Publisher believes all the information in it will be correct at the time of publication, it does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever. The data and projections should be used as a guide only and should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. The data is provided from sources deemed extremely reliable, but markets and statistics can change quickly, so is not guaranteed. All properties can go up in value or down, there are no guarantees and you recognise that any business endeavour has inherent risk for loss of capital. SOURCES: Data and statistics are sourced various bodies including The Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Real Estate Institute of Australia, Residex, RP Data, Matusik, SQ M research and Australian Property Monitors amongst others.