WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT BOARD
Transcription
WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT BOARD
SIMCOE MUSKOKA WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT BOARD 2012 LOCAL LABOUR MARKET PLAN Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 1 Simcoe Muskoka Workforce Development Board An Architect for Innovation Simcoe Muskoka Workforce Development Board (SMWDB) functions as a catalyst for engaging communities and community partners in innovative workforce solutions. SMWDB is now responsible for communities in Simcoe County and the District of Muskoka. Our neutral position within the community enables us to act as a mechanism to bring together divergent labour market partners (labour, business, service providers, education, training, economic development, and equity groups) to develop local solutions for local workforce development issues. In operation since 1997, SMWDB is an autonomous, community directed, non-profit corporation engaging in Simcoe County and the District of Muskoka in ensuring that we are prepared to meet the demands of a changing economy by identifying the skills, training needs and workforce issues in our own communities. SMWDB is led by a volunteer Board of Directors who work throughout our geographical coverage area, and therefore understand the importance of a robust and responsive local labour market. Additionally, we are a member of Workforce Planning Ontario, a network of workforce planning boards funded by the Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities. Sourcing and compiling data and disseminating information across various vehicles for the convenience of our stakeholders is one of the key responsibilities of SMWDB. This report is the primary medium in which we fulfill that responsibility. The action plan reflects back on past initiatives and looks forward to future opportunities. Material contained in this report has been prepared by SMWDB and is drawn from a variety of sources considered to be reliable. We thank all who have contributed through consultations, conversations, and/or data sharing as well as our sponsor Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities. We make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. In providing this material, SMWDB does not assume any responsibility or liability. This Employment Ontario project is funded by the Ontario Government. Ce projet Emploi Ontario est financé par le gouvernement de l'Ontario. The views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect those of Employment Ontario. Les points de vue exprimés dans le présent document ne reflètent pas nécessairement ceux d’Emploi Ontario. This publication was prepared by Susan Laycock, cfre, cae, cavr Executive Director, Simcoe Muskoka Workforce Development Board Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 2 Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 3 Table of Contents Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………….………..…… 3 Vision, Goal, Mandate…………………………………………………………………….……………………… 7 Board of Directors……………………………………………………………………………….……..…………. 8 Executive Summary………………………………………………………………………………………..…….. 9 Local Labour Market Analysis………………………………………………………………………..………. 10 - 11 Census Population Percentage Change……………………………………………………...…... 12 - 13 Migration Trend………………………………………………………………………………………………. 14 Change in Number of Employers By Employee Size Range…………………………….. 15 -21 Change of Number of Employers By Industry and Firm Size……………………..….…. 21 - 23 Change in SME Employment by Industry Sector…………………………………………….. 24 - 25 Top 10 Industry Sub-Sectors with Increase/Decrease in SME Employment……. 26 - 30 Special Topic: Review of South Georgian Bay Labour Market Study 31 Demographic Overview…………………………………………………………………………………. 31 -32 Employer Survey 32 - 37 Action Plan Update 2011 – 2012……………………….……………….…………………………………. 39 - 40 Other Activities……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 41 Action Plan 2012 - 2013 ……………………………………………….……..…………………….………… 42 - 44 Participants in Consultations……………………………………………………………………....………… 45 Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 4 Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 5 Simcoe Muskoka Workforce Development Board Our Vision SMWDB is a catalyst for community planning while ensuring equity and addressing employment training needs and marketable skills for a changing economy Our Goal SMWDB will achieve our vision by promoting a coherent and co-ordinated system of labour force development training that is open, accessible and equitable. Our Mandate SMWDB will facilitate training and adjustment activities that will equip people with skills for new and/or changing employment that is in demand by employers in their own local community. Specifically • Provide up-to-date information on programs and services that lead to employment • Communicate with stakeholders about trends, opportunities and priorities in local employment and economic fluctuations • Facilitate community partnerships throughout Simcoe County and the District of Muskoka to discuss and identify training needs and support the development of local solutions • Promote and support local equity in sectorial employment and training opportunities • Promote life-long learning Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 6 Board Directors and Staff The Directors of the Board are representative of diverse constituency groups within Simcoe County and the District of Muskoka. They ensure the needs of their communities and specific groups are considered in all aspects of employment and training. Under the direction of the Labour Co-Chair Patty Coates and Business Co-Chair Luke Sternberg, SMWDB will continue to bring partners of all the communities of Simcoe County and the district of Muskoka together to address employment and training needs of their communities. Working together with our community partners, SMWDB will provide a local voice in government decision-making and ensure the needs of our community are heard and met. Business Co-Chair Labour Co-Chair Business Labour Luke Sternberg Patty Coates Peggy Crane John Smith Terry Heittola Andrew MacPhee Silvanna Petersen Educator/Training Francophone Visible Minorities MTCU Advisors ODSP Advisor Ontario Works Advisor Executive Director Project Coordinator Executive Assistant Charlotte Parliament Malcolm Greaves Pierre Casault Gyslain Gamache Carl Persaud Deb Crawford Joanne Gallacher Lynda Porteous Kelly Scott Susan Laycock Brandie Black CherieAnne Young Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 7 Executive Summary Workforce Development Trends “The looming exodus of baby boomers, growth of a multi-cultural and multi-generational workforce, and demand for a higher skilled and educated workforce are several of the key workforce trends facing individuals, companies and communities. As we look ahead to 2012 and begin planning workforce development activities it’s helpful to look at recent and upcoming trends identified by thought leaders and futurists in the workforce development arena.” Millier Dickinson Blais, Leading edge expertise in core economic development. Over the last fiscal year the Simcoe Muskoka Workforce Development Board has conducted Community Consultations with our own local thought leaders to compare local indicators gleaned through research released over the past year with real community issues. The conversations at those events, in combination with feedback from our surveys and meetings attended, informs this report. Survey questions asked of our community included: 1 What is the state of the local economy? 2 What key sectors are growing or experiencing problems? 3 What challenges are you/employers facing? For example, recruitment, training, retention. 4 What areas in your local community are you paying particular attention to? For example, resources, new development, upcoming events, areas of interest. Front of mind for our communities were lack of HR expertise, shortage or retention of skilled workers in Tourism, Health Care, Manufacturing, Skilled Trades and Customer Service due in part to the aging population and workers lacking job training and/or required skill sets. In response to these challenges the SMWDB has developed six projects for 2012 – 2013: Skilled Trades Expo Communications Strategy Immigration Resource Guide for Immigrants to Simcoe County County of Simcoe Ontario Works Department Labour Market Analysis Resource Guide Focusing on Hiring Practices for Persons with Disabilities Workforce One-Stop Lunch and Learn focusing on Topical Issues in Todays’ Workforce Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 8 The overarching theme of these projects is enhancing skill sets within a diverse workforce, which includes better integration of the multi-generational and multi-cultural workers, and persons with disabilities. The recently released Drummond Report http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/reformcommission/ spoke to the value of Workforce Development Boards in our communities and stated “The boards can also serve as a vehicle to encourage greater support for workplace-based training among employers. Various studies show that, compared to international competitors, Canadian employers invest less in training on a per capita basis and that Canadian workers have a lower participation rate in training. According to a recent Conference Board of Canada report, Canada’s capacity for innovation is decreasing. One of the key drivers for this decline might be the relatively low priority placed on learning and development within Canadian organizations. From 2006 to 2010, Canadian organizations spent on average only 64 cents for every dollar spent by American organizations on these types of initiatives. The boards play a role in improving these fortunes.” SMWDB will continue to advocate for on-going education for workers in our region. As well, we will be actively working towards a much enhanced system of information sharing to help ensure that employers and employees are aware of existing and new opportunities, such as training and funding. As SMWDB enters its 15th year of service to our communities, we are happy to report that our Community Partners have expressed high optimism for our local economy and see increased expansion in employment in the next three years. The Bank of Canada’s January report mirrors that by projecting that the national economy will ‘return to full capacity by the third quarter of 2013’. SMWDB would like to thank all the employers, community partners and organizations who gave their time and provided input towards the preparation of this report. Additionally, we would like to thank Tom Zizys for his work in analysing data and developing tables for this report. Tom has worked for 20 years as a policy researcher and project consultant in the community sector, focusing on labour market analysis. He works regularly with the various training boards across Ontario and frequently makes presentations to organizations and policymakers regarding labour market trends. Tom has held a number of senior positions in the Government of Ontario, including Director of Policy, Premier’s Office. We trust this compiled, local information is a valuable tool for your organization, and welcome questions and comments regarding the local labour market. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 9 Local Labour Market Analysis The purpose of this report is to use local labour market information derived from a variety of sources, including data from the 2006 Census, Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Patterns, and consultations with local businesses, government organizations, educators and service providers. This data helps to provide “evidence-based” information regarding the challenges facing the local labour market. This report presents a strategic framework, putting a spotlight on identifying trends in the local labour market and identifying actions that will address these concerns. SMWDB looks at the areas surrounding and including Huntsville, Bracebridge, Gravenhurst, Orillia, Barrie, Midland, Penetanguishene, Collingwood, Alliston and Innisfil. The rate of population growth in Simcoe County slowed during the last census period (2006 to 2011) compared to the previous census (2001 to 2006), but still matched the provincial average, with growth rates varying across its major municipalities, from a high of 16.7% for Wasaga Beach to a low of 0.2% for Oro-Medonte. Growth slowed considerably in Muskoka District to almost zero (0.8%), although some municipalities still grew at 4-5% (Gravenhurst and Huntsville). Simcoe, having a larger population, experiences higher rates of migration. The largest net migration occurs among 25-44 year olds, a significant part of the core working age cohort. Simcoe also experiences net positive migration among all other age groups except in the category of youth (18-24 year olds), who are either seeking education or jobs outside the area. Muskoka has smaller net migration numbers and the largest net increase occurs among 45-64 year olds. Like Simcoe, it has experienced a net loss among its youth, but unlike Simcoe it also registers a (miniscule) loss among those aged 65 years and older. More than half of the enterprises in both Simcoe and Muskoka have no employees, and 98% of all firms have 49 or fewer employees, a proportion similar to that for Ontario as a whole. The industry sector with the largest number of firms in both Simcoe and Muskoka is Construction, and in Muskoka it makes up a particularly large proportion of firms (23%). The Professional, Scientific and Technical Services sector makes up a smaller share of firms in both regions compared to the provincial average of 15% (in Simcoe at 11%, in Muskoka at 9%). Among large firms, industries with the most employers in both areas are Retail Trade, Manufacturing and Health Care & Social Services. Between December 2008 and June 2011, both Simcoe and Muskoka had similar outcomes when measuring changes among firms by the number of employees: a slight increase among firms with “0” employees; firms with 1-19 employees showing the largest increase; firms with 20-99 employees Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 10 showing almost no change (minus 1% for Simcoe, plus 1% for Muskoka); and a decline in the number of firms with 100 or more employees (with Muskoka showing a larger proportionate drop). There are similar trends between the two regions when focusing on changes in the number of firms by industry between June 2010 and June 2011: both Manufacturing and Wholesale Trade have seen notable declines in the number of employers (more pronounced in Simcoe), and small declines in Educational Services. Both regions have seen mainly increases in: Construction; Retail Trade; Real Estate and Rental & Leasing; and Health Care & Social Assistance. But in all these categories, Simcoe has experienced slight declines among larger firms; Muskoka has fewer large firms, but it did experience a decline in the Construction industry. When estimating changes in employment among small and medium-sized firms between December 2008 and June 2011, both Simcoe and Muskoka experienced large decreases in Manufacturing and in Administrative Support, and large increases in Health Care & Social Assistance and Real Estate. Several industries exhibited contradictory trends between the two areas: Wholesale Trade: Simcoe, a large loss, Muskoka, a large increase; Construction: Simcoe, almost no change; Muskoka, a large increase; Accommodation & Food: Simcoe, a minor drop; Muskoka, a huge drop. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 11 The Status of the Labour Market in the County of Simcoe and the District of Muskoka Population Every five years Statistics Canada carries out a full Census, establishing the precise population count for every community in the country. Tables 1A and 1B offer the census population for the municipalities in Simcoe County and the District of Muskoka for 2006 and 2011, together with comparisons between the current rate of population growth with that of the previous census. TABLE 1A – SIMCOE CENSUS POPULATION AND PERCENTAGE CHANGE ONTARIO 2011 2006 % change 2006-2011 446,063 422,204 5.7% 12.0% 135,711 19,241 18,505 33,079 16,572 30,234 30,586 20,078 18,223 17,537 128,430 17,290 16,901 31,175 16,330 27,701 30,259 20,031 17,456 15,029 5.7% 11.3% 9.5% 6.1% 1.5% 9.1% 1.1% 0.2% 4.4% 16.7% 23.8% 7.8% 0.6% 8.8% 0.5% 6.0% 3.9% 9.4% 8.4% 21.0% 12,851,821 12,160,282 5.7% 6.6% SIMCOE COUNTY Barrie Collingwood Essa Innisfil Midland New Tecumseth Orillia Oro-Medonte Springwater Wasaga Beach ONTARIO % change 2001-2006 Statistics Canada, 2006 and 2011 Census Profiles Simcoe County experienced population growth between 2006 and 2011 at exactly the same rate as Ontario as a whole. For Simcoe County and in many of its larger municipalities, that rate of growth was lower than that which occurred between 2001 and 2006. Several municipalities increased their rate of growth, such as Essa, Collingwood and New Tecumseth. Even though its rate of growth slowed, Wasaga Beach continued to experience significant growth, at 16.7%. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 12 TABLE 1B – MUSKOKA CENSUS POPULATION AND PERCENTAGE CHANGE ONTARIO 2011 2006 % change 2006-2011 58,047 57,563 0.8% 8.4% 15,409 11,640 19,056 15,652 11,046 18,280 -1.6% 5.4% 4.2% 13.8% 1.3% 5.4% 12,160,282 12,851,821 5.7% 6.6% DISTRICT OF MUSKOKA Bracebridge Gravenhurst Huntsville ONTARIO % change 2001-2006 Statistics Canada, 2006 and 2011 Census Profiles Overall, growth in Muskoka slowed considerably, from a rate of 8.4% between 2001 and 2006 to almost no growth (0.8%) between 2006 and 2011. Among its major municipalities, Bracebridge’s numbers reflected a considerable reversal, from a very high 13.8% growth between 2001 and 2006 to a population loss of 1.6% between 2006 and 2011. Gravenhurst, meanwhile, upped its numbers, while Huntsville’s growth changed only a little. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 13 Migration Among the population dynamics that affect an area’s labour market are the patterns of in- and out-migration. Chart 1 provides the net average migration figures for Simcoe and Muskoka for the last five years. For all age categories there has been a consistent pattern across the years. Simcoe, having a larger population, experiences higher rates of migration. The largest net migration occurs among 25-44 year olds, a significant part of the core working age cohort. Simcoe also experiences net positive migration among all other age groups except in the category of youth (1824 year olds), who are either seeking education or jobs outside the area. Muskoka has smaller net migration numbers and the largest net increase occurs among 45-64 year olds. Like Simcoe, it has experienced a net loss among its youth, but unlike Simcoe it also registers a (miniscule) loss among those aged 65 years and older. Chart 1: Average net migration figures for Simcoe and Muskoka, 2005-06 to 2009-101 1 Statistics Canada, Annual Migration Estimates by Census Division (from tax filer administrative data). Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 14 Number of Employers by Employee Size Range Tables 2A and 2B offer the number of employers present in Simcoe and Muskoka in June 2011, and break down the figures by industry and by employee size ranges. TABLE 2A – SIMCOE NUMBER OF EMPLOYERS BY EMPLOYEE SIZE RANGE JUNE 2011 % RANK 794 200 64 32 16 4 2 1112 4 11 16 15 5 16 4 1 0 57 0 18 11 6 6 5 6 0 1 35 0 19 2781 1195 372 174 87 12 7 4628 17 1 451 235 136 80 58 33 43 1036 4 13 528 303 142 94 53 16 2 1138 4 10 1060 675 572 322 158 63 44 2894 11 3 841 263 82 34 27 14 8 1269 5 9 161 60 23 9 15 6 5 279 1 17 845 237 62 68 73 2 0 1287 5 8 2305 305 77 32 27 2 1 2749 10 4 1993 846 160 76 32 6 3 3116 11 2 720 68 12 6 6 4 0 816 3 14 797 373 162 60 42 9 10 1453 5 7 181 65 32 22 5 0 4 309 1 16 363 589 290 155 65 9 30 1501 5 6 274 76 40 37 25 13 5 470 2 15 288 212 185 176 153 42 24 1080 4 12 997 851 257 93 37 3 4 2242 8 5 7 1 0 1 2 6 17 34 0 20 15413 6575 2679 1492 891 245 210 27505 56% 24% 10% 5% 3% 1% 1% 100 56% 80% 90% 95% 98% 99% 100% 56% ONTARIO percentage of all employers Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Patterns 24% 9% 5% 4% 1% 1% INDUSTRY SECTOR 2-DIGIT NAICS 11 Agriculture 21 Mining 22 Utilities 23 Construction 31-33 Manufacturing 41 Wholesale Trade 44-45 Retail Trade 48-49 Transportation/Warehousing 51 Information and Cultural 52 Finance and Insurance 53 Real Estate 54 Professional Scientific Tech 55 Management of Companies 56 Administrative Support 61 Educational Services 62Health Care & Social Assist 71 Arts, Entertainment & Rec 72 Accommodation & Food 81 Other Services 91 Public Administration TOTAL Percentage of all employers Cumulative percentage 0 1-4 5-9 10-19 20-49 50-99 100+ TOTAL Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 15 The table highlights a number of features regarding employers in Simcoe. Number of small firms: Businesses are by far made up of small establishments. 56% of the firms in Simcoe have no employees, and another 24% have 1-4 employees. Cumulatively (the second to last row on the table), 90% of all firms in Simcoe have nine or fewer employees, and 98% have 49 or fewer employees. This distribution is not unusual: the last row provides the Ontario percentage distribution of employers by size of firm, and the Simcoe figures almost exactly match those numbers. Highest numbers of firms by industry: The second to last column provides the percentage distribution of all firms by industry. Construction accounts for the largest proportion of employers, and at 17% is considerably higher than the provincial average of 11%. Professional, Scientific and Technical Services comes in second at 11%, somewhat smaller than the provincial average of 15%. This category is made up of many professionals and consultants. Highest number of firms by size and industry: The three largest industries by each employee size category have also been highlighted. The table demonstrates how the large number of firms in the smaller size categories drives the total numbers (for example, in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services and in Real Estate). In the mid-size ranges, Construction, Retail Trade and Accommodation & Food Services are the prominent industries. Among large firms (100+ employees), Retail Trade, Manufacturing and Health Care & Social Assistance have by far the biggest numbers. __________ 1. This actually undercounts the number of self-employed individuals. The Statistics Canada’s Canadian Business Patterns database does not include unincorporated businesses that are owner-operated (have no payroll employees) and that earn less than $30,000 in a given year Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 16 TABLE 2B – MUSKOKA June 2011 NUMBER OF EMPLOYERS BY EMPLOYEE SIZE RANGE 21 Mining 22 Utilities 23 Construction 31-33 Manufacturing 41 Wholesale Trade 44-45 Retail Trade 48-49 Transportation/Warehousing 51 Information and Cultural 52 Finance and Insurance 53 Real Estate 54 Professional Scientific Tech 55 Management of Companies 56 Administrative Support 61 Educational Services 62Health Care & Social Assist 71 Arts, Entertainment & Rec 72 Accommodation & Food 81 Other Services 91 Public Administration TOTAL Percentage of all employers Cumulative percentage ONTARIO percentage of all employers RANK 11 Agriculture % INDUSTRY SECTOR 2-DIGIT NAICS 44 14 6 2 3 0 0 69 1 15 4 5 3 5 0 0 0 17 0 18 0 1 2 2 1 0 0 6 0 20 685 381 154 54 29 2 0 1305 23 1 100 59 18 19 10 3 6 215 4 10 77 49 22 9 8 1 0 166 3 12 196 163 141 77 37 10 8 632 11 2 118 43 9 4 3 1 4 182 3 11 35 15 8 2 2 0 0 62 1 16 179 50 10 13 13 0 0 265 5 8 498 63 21 12 4 2 0 600 11 3 321 137 38 13 2 0 0 511 9 4 131 15 5 1 2 0 0 154 3 13 157 83 29 13 9 2 2 295 5 7 31 4 3 5 1 0 0 44 1 17 48 108 41 37 6 2 7 249 4 9 59 21 16 14 14 1 3 128 2 14 100 60 45 40 36 11 5 297 5 6 191 151 43 10 2 0 1 398 7 5 1 0 0 1 1 1 5 9 0 19 2975 1422 614 333 183 36 41 5604 53% 25% 11% 6% 3% 1% 1% 100 53% 78% 89% 95% 98% 99% 100% 56% 24% 9% 5% 4% 1% 1% 0 1-4 5-9 10-19 20-49 50-99 100+ TOTAL Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Patterns . Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 17 The table highlights a number of features regarding employers in Muskoka. Number of small firms: Businesses are by far made up of small establishments. 53% of the firms in Muskoka have no employees, and another 25% have 1-4 employees. Cumulatively (the second to last row on the table), 89% of all firms in Muskoka have nine or fewer employees, and 98% have 49 or fewer employees. This distribution is not unusual: the last row provides the Ontario percentage distribution of employers by size of firm, and the Muskoka figures closely match the provincial numbers. Highest numbers of firms by industry: The second to last column provides the percentage distribution of all firms by industry. Construction accounts for the largest proportion of employers and at 23% is considerably higher than the provincial average of 11%. Retail Trade accounts for the next largest category, at 11%. Muskoka has a smaller proportion of firms in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services category; while nevertheless the fourth largest employer category, at 9% the proportion is considerably lower than the provincial average of 15%. Highest number of firms by size and industry: The three largest industries by each employee size category have also been highlighted. In Muskoka, the three industries that largely dominate the top three ranking in each employee size category are Construction, Retail Trade and Accommodation & Food Services. Muskoka has few employers with 100 or more employees, and this category is dominated by Health Care & Social Assistance, Retail Trade and Manufacturing (with Accommodation & Food Services and Public Administration, tied at fourth, also figuring prominently). Change in the number of employers by size of firm One indicator of local economic activity and employment trends is the number of employers, including the size of their firms, present in the local community. Table 2 provides for numbers of employers aggregated by several size categories for Simcoe and Muskoka for four reporting periods: “0” Zero employees (in most instances, self- employed employers, or no employees) 1-19 Small firms 20-99 Medium-sized firms 100+ Large firms ____________ 2 This actually undercounts the number of self-employed individuals. The Statistics Canada’s Canadian Business Patterns database does not include unincorporated businesses that are owner-operated (have no payroll employees) and that earn less than $30,000 in a given year. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 18 Table 3: Number of firms by employee size, December 2008 to June 2011, Simcoe and Muskoka 0 1-19 20-99 100+ SIMCOE December 2008 15318 10387 1151 219 June 2010 14878 10561 1109 220 December 2010 15566 10741 1148 219 June 2011 15413 10746 1136 210 MUSKOKA December 2008 2871 2235 217 46 June 2010 2898 2354 228 42 December 2010 3010 2366 225 45 June 2011 2975 2369 219 41 Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Patterns, December 2008, June 2010, December 2010 and June 2011 Charts 2 and 3 provide a graphic illustration of the trends by assigning a value of 100 to the December 2008 numbers and showing the corresponding changes over time. Chart 2: Number of firms by employee size, December 2008 to June 2011, Simcoe Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 19 Chart 3: Number of firms by employee size, December 2008 to June 2011, Muskoka Despite different ups and downs, the changes from December 2008 result in roughly similar outcomes by June 2011 for both Simcoe and Muskoka: a slight increase among firms with “0” employees; firms with 1-19 employees showing the largest increase; firms with 20-99 employees showing almost no change (minus 1% for Simcoe, plus 1% for Muskoka); and a decline in the number of firms with 100 or more employees (with Muskoka showing a larger proportionate drop). In large measure, these trends are fairly close to what was experienced in Ontario as a whole during this same period (Chart 4). Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 20 Chart 4: Number of firms by employee size, December 2008 to June 2011, Ontario Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Patterns, December 2008, June 2010, December 2010 and June 2011 Change in the number of firms by industry, June 2010 to June 2011 Changes in the number of employers are experienced differently across the various industries. Tables 3 and 4 highlight the changes in the number of firms between June 2010 and June 2011, for Simcoe and Muskoka. The tables also list the total number of firms in each industry in June 2011 in each area, to provide a context. There are similar trends between the two regions: both Manufacturing and Wholesale Trade have seen notable declines in the number of employers (more pronounced in Simcoe), and small declines in Educational Services. Both regions have seen mainly increases in Construction; Retail Trade; Real Estate and Rental and Leasing; Health Care and Social Assistance; but in all these categories, Simcoe has experienced slight declines among larger firms (Muskoka has fewer large firms, and it did experience a decline in Construction). Some other trends: Simcoe experienced increases in Transportation and Warehousing; Information and Cultural Industries; Finance and Insurance; Professional, Technical and Scientific Services; and Other Services. Muskoka’s numbers showed fewer industry-wide trends, with the exception of Accommodation and Food Services, which saw notable losses among small and medium sized employers. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 21 TABLE 4A: SIMCOE CHANGE IN THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYERS, BY INDUSTRY AND BY FIRM SIZE, JUNE 2010 TO JUNE 2011 Firm size (number of employees) INDUSTRY Agriculture, forestry, fishing and farming Mining and oil and gas extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information and cultural industries Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific and technical services Management of companies and enterprises Administrative and support Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services Public administration 0 1-19 20-99 100+ 32 -2 -1 143 -6 -8 22 -5 13 21 261 22 -5 0 2 67 7 -24 -5 1 6 8 0 32 -11 -14 18 15 -1 -1 17 47 -2 1 -4 34 -9 26 23 0 0 0 -1 9 0 -5 16 2 1 3 4 0 1 0 -3 -2 0 -1 1 2 0 0 0 -2 -8 -1 -1 0 2 0 -1 1 0 1 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 Total number of firms June-11 1112 57 35 4628 1036 1138 2894 1269 279 1287 2749 3116 816 1453 309 1501 470 1080 2242 34 Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Patterns, June 2010 and June 2011 Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 22 TABLE 4B: MUSKOKA CHANGE IN THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYERS, BY INDUSTRY AND BY FIRM SIZE, JUNE 2010 TO JUNE 2011 Firm size (number of employees) 0 INDUSTRY Agriculture, forestry, fishing and farming Mining and oil and gas extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information and cultural industries Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific and technical services Management of companies and enterprises Administrative and support Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services Public administration -1 -1 0 27 -5 -13 -8 -2 1 1 46 3 -8 10 7 13 2 5 0 0 1-19 1 2 -3 33 1 2 6 1 1 -4 5 0 -1 -7 -2 -9 0 -14 3 0 20-99 1 -3 1 3 -5 -1 1 -1 0 0 1 -1 0 -3 0 2 3 -7 0 0 100+ 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -1 0 1 0 Total number of firms June-11 69 17 6 1305 215 166 632 182 62 265 600 511 154 295 44 249 128 297 398 9 Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Patterns, June 2010 and June 2011 __________ 3 The Canadian Business Pattern data can be used to make estimates about employment trends. For each industry and for each size of firm, there is a provincial employment average. The reliability of the average goes down as the size of firm increases, as there are fewer firms in the large employer category. As a consequence, the employment estimate is more likely accurate for small and medium sized firms (less than 100 employees). These changes in employment numbers among small and medium-sized firms likely indicate the health of that industry as a whole (although it is possible that in some cases employment might drop among smaller firms yet increase among larger firms, or vice versa). However, this approach is less helpful for those industry subsectors where larger firms made up a significant proportion of employment, for example, among Educational Services (where schools, colleges and universities are major employers), Hospitals, and Public Administration (where federal, provincial and municipal workplaces are larger operations and there are few small establishments). Nevertheless, even with these caveats, highlighting employment trends among SMEs offer another insight into the dynamics of the local labour market. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 23 Estimated change in employment among small and medium size firms The following tables provide the estimated change in employment among SMEs in Simcoe and Muskoka by industry, between December 2008 (the start of the recession) and June 2011.3 TABLE 5A – SIMCOE CHANGE IN SME EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR DECEMBER 2008 TO JUNE 2010 INDUSTRY SECTOR 2-DIGIT NAICS TOTAL TOTAL ABSOLUTE EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT CHANGE 2008 2011 11 Agriculture 21 Mining 22 Utilities 23 Construction 31-33 Manufacturing 41 Wholesale Trade 44-45 Retail Trade 48-49 Transportation/Warehousing 51 Information and Cultural 52 Finance and Insurance 53 Real Estate 54 Professional Scientific Tech 55 Management of Companies 56 Administrative Support 61 Educational Services 62 Health Care & Social Assistance 71 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 72 Accommodation & Food 62Health Care & Social Assist 81 Other Services 91 Public Administration TOTAL 2,693 457 343 13,565 8,259 7,140 18,654 4,114 1,269 4,677 4,403 6,847 1,613 5,863 1,088 7,334 3,145 12,013 6,383 585 110,445 2,802 492 304 13,480 7,026 5,999 19,436 4,095 1,392 4,833 4,762 6,923 1,445 5,267 973 8,157 2,852 11,839 6,797 489 109,364 109 35 -39 -85 -1,233 -1,141 782 -19 123 156 360 75 -167 -596 -116 823 -292 -174 414 -96 -1,081 PERCENT CHANGE 4% 8% -11% -1% -15% -16% 4% 0% 10% 3% 8% 1% -10% -10% -11% 11% -9% -1% 6% -16% -1% Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Patterns By this calculation, large employment losses were experienced in Simcoe in Wholesale Trade (-1,141 jobs, a drop of 16%), Manufacturing (-1,233 jobs, a decline of 15%) and Administrative Support (-596 jobs, a drop of 10%) (this industry includes businesses that support other businesses, such as: financing, billing and record-keeping; janitorial and security services; and employment placement agencies. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 24 TABLE 5A – MUSKOKA CHANGE IN SME EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR DECEMBER 2008 TO JUNE 2010 INDUSTRY SECTOR 2-DIGIT NAICS TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 2008 269 115 56 3,847 1,324 631 4,278 494 264 912 989 994 236 1,345 179 1,281 776 3,509 980 119 22,600 11 Agriculture 21 Mining 22 Utilities 23 Construction 31-33 Manufacturing 41 Wholesale Trade 44-45 Retail Trade 48-49 Transportation/Warehousing 51 Information and Cultural 52 Finance and Insurance 53 Real Estate 54 Professional Scientific Technical 55 Management of Companies 56 Administrative Support 61 Educational Services 62 Health Care & Social Assistance 71 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 62Health Care & Social Assist 72 Accommodation & Food 81 Other Services 91 Public Administration TOTAL TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 2011 225 105 71 4,227 1,130 749 4,289 463 202 883 1,172 1,048 263 1,088 156 1,357 896 2,908 963 118 22,314 ABSOLUTE CHANGE PERCENT CHANGE -44 -11 15 380 -194 118 11 -30 -62 -29 182 54 27 -257 -23 76 120 -601 -18 -1 -287 -16% -9% 27% 10% -15% 19% 0% -6% -23% -3% 18% 5% 11% -19% -13% 6% 15% -17% -2% -1% -1% Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Patterns Muskoka experiences some similar trends, but also different ones. Manufacturing (-194 jobs, a loss of 15%) and Administrative Support (-257 jobs, a decline of 19%) also experienced losses, but the biggest loss was among Accommodation & Food Services (-257 jobs, a decline of 17%). The biggest gain was in Construction (+380 jobs, an increase of 10%, which experienced a small loss in Simcoe) and in Real Estate (+182 jobs, an increase of 18%). Drilling down further, the next four tables look at sub-categories of industries, what are known as threedigit industry sub-sectors (so-called because of their numerical designation in the North American Industry Classification System). For each of Simcoe and Muskoka, the top ten industries showing the largest increases and largest decreases in estimated employment among SMEs are highlighted. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 25 TABLE 5B – SIMCOE TOP 10 INDUSTRY SUB-SECTORS WITH INCREASE IN SME EMPLOYMENT DECEMBER 2008 TO JUNE 2011 INDUSTRY SUB-SECTOR 3-DIGIT NAICS 623 - Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 531 - Real Estate 813 - Religious, Grant-Making, Civic, & Professional Organizations 238 - Specialty Trade Contractors 453 - Miscellaneous Store Retailers 443 - Electronics and Appliance Stores 446 - Health and Personal Care Stores 523 – Securities and Other Financial Investment Activities 445 - Food and Beverage Stores 621 - Ambulatory Health Care Services TOTAL TOTAL EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT 2008 2011 ABSOLUTE CHANGE PERCENT CHANGE 1,378 2,139 760 55% 3,518 3,967 449 13% 1,921 2,251 330 17% 8,560 8,871 311 4% 1,420 1,725 305 21% 631 845 213 34% 1,830 2,019 189 10% 1,231 1,418 187 15% 3,717 3,900 183 5% 4,408 4,591 183 4% Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Patterns Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 26 TABLE 5C – SIMCOE TOP 10 INDUSTRY SUB-SECTORS WITH DECREASE IN SME EMPLOYMENT DECEMBER 2008 TO JUNE 2011 INDUSTRY SUB-SECTOR 3-DIGIT NAICS 561 - Administrative and Support Services 336 - Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 236 - Construction of Buildings 418 - Miscellaneous WholesalerDistributors 417 - Machinery, Equipment and Supplies Wholesaler-Dist. 713 - Amusement, Gambling and Recreation Industries 441 - Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 484 - Truck Transportation 551 - Management of Companies and Enterprises 413 - Food, Beverage and Tobacco Wholesaler-Dist. TOTAL TOTAL EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT 2008 2011 ABSOLUTE CHANGE PERCENT CHANGE 5,411 4,819 -592 -11% 793 399 -394 -50% 3,772 3,448 -324 -9% 970 681 -289 -30% 1,540 1,253 -287 -19% 2,595 2,351 -244 -9% 2,520 2,302 -218 -9% 2,379 2,211 -168 -7% 1,613 1,445 -167 -10% 1,238 1,081 -157 -13% Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Patterns When examined in greater detail, it is apparent that in a number of instances, changes in employment for an industry as a whole are often accounted for by large changes within one subsector of that industry. For example, the increase in employment in the Health Care & Social Assistance is largely due to an over 50% increase in employment in the Nursing & Residential Care Facilities subsector. Similarly, the entire loss in the Administrative Support industry is as a result of losses in Administrative and Support Services, with almost no losses in Waste Management and Remediation Services. There can also be contrary trends within an industry: in Construction, Specialty Trade Contractors show an increase of 311 jobs, while Construction of Buildings shows a decrease of 324 jobs. In Retail Trade several subsectors show increase, while Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers experiences a decrease. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 27 TABLE 5B – MUSKOKA TOP 10 INDUSTRY SUB-SECTORS WITH INCREASE IN SME EMPLOYMENT DECEMBER 2008 TO JUNE 2011 INDUSTRY SUB-SECTOR 3-DIGIT NAICS 238 - Specialty Trade Contractors TOTAL TOTAL EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT 2008 2011 PERCENT CHANGE 1,972 2,152 180 9% 790 953 163 21% 528 660 132 25% 705 823 118 17% 1,606 1,706 100 6% 269 369 100 37% 146 239 93 64% 327 392 64 20% 994 1,048 54 5% 254 290 36 14% 531 - Real Estate 444 - Building Material & Garden Stores 713 - Amusement, Gambling and Recreation Industry 236 - Construction of Buildings ABSOLUTE CHANGE 237 - Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 416 - Building Material and Supplies Whole.-Dist. 623 - Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 541 - Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 453 - Miscellaneous Store Retailers Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Patterns Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 28 TABLE 5C – MUSKOKA TOP 10 INDUSTRY SUB-SECTORS WITH DECREASE IN SME EMPLOYMENT DECEMBER 2008 TO JUNE 2011 INDUSTRY SUB-SECTOR 3-DIGIT NAICS 721 - Accommodation Services 561 - Administrative and Support Services 722 - Food Services and Drinking Places 332 - Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 446 - Health and Personal Care Stores 511 - Publishing Industries (except Internet) 327 - Non-Metallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 323 - Printing and Related Support Activities 441 - Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 321 - Wood Product Manufacturing TOTAL TOTAL EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT 2008 2011 ABSOLUTE CHANGE PERCENT CHANGE 1,437 1,085 -352 -25% 1,220 958 -262 -21% 2,072 1,824 -248 -12% 183 81 -102 -56% 312 236 -75 -24% 152 81 -71 -47% 201 135 -66 -33% 94 28 -66 -70% 781 722 -58 -7% 155 114 -42 -27% Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Business Patterns Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 29 In Muskoka, the Construction sector exhibited strength across all three subsectors, with employment increases among Specialty Trade Contractors (+180 jobs, an increase of 9%), Construction of Buildings (+100 jobs, up 6%) and Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction (+100 jobs, a big 37% increase). On the other hand, outcomes in the tourism industry were mixed, with the Amusement, Gambling & Recreation Industry showing an increase (+118 jobs, up 17%), but Accommodation Services (-352 jobs, down 25%) and Food Services & Drinking Places (-248 jobs, down 12%) showing very large decreases. The Retail Trade sector was also mixed, with increases among Building Material & Garden Stores (+132 jobs, up 25%) and Miscellaneous Store Retailers (+36 jobs, up 14%), but decreases in Health & Personal Care Stores (-75 jobs, a drop of 24%) and Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers (-58 jobs, a decrease of 7%). The increase among Building Material & Supplies Wholesalers and Distributers (+93 jobs, up 64%) may be related to the increase seen in Building Material & Garden Stores. The increase in Nursing & Residential Care Facilities (+64 jobs) while significant, was not nearly as pronounced as that experienced in Simcoe (+20% versus +55% in Simcoe). Administrative & Support also had a significant decline in Muskoka as in Simcoe, and Muskoka saw three manufacturing subsectors among the top ten employment declines. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 30 SPECIAL TOPIC: REVIEW OF SOUTH GEORGIAN BAY LABOUR MARKET STUDY Among the activities which SMWDB supported last year was a labour market study undertaken for the South Georgian Bay area, encompassing the municipalities of Clearview, Collingwood, The Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach. This section will provide an overview of the results of that study, both because it is of interest to the western part of our area but also because the results of an employer survey and the report’s recommendations have broader relevance. Demographic overview Generally, the demographics of this area reflects a slightly older population, with a greater proportion of older adults (45 to 64 years old) and seniors (65 years and older), reflecting the extent to which The Blue Mountains, Wasaga Beach and, to a slightly lesser degree, Collingwood are home to a significant retirement population. From a labour market perspective, all four communities have a smaller proportion of residents aged 25 to 54 years old, the prime working age, compared to Ontario as a whole, or compared to Barrie or Toronto. Industries that have a higher concentration in this area are: • Agriculture (forestry, fishing and hunting can be dropped as a descriptor for this area) • Construction • Real estate and rental and leasing • Arts, entertainment and recreation • Accommodation and food services These latter four industries reflect the importance of tourism and retirement living in the area. To this list of industries should also be added those industries that encompass an important proportion of the total jobs, namely: • Manufacturing • Retail trade • Professional, scientific and technical services • Educational services • Health care and social assistance In terms of occupations that residents are employed in: the male occupation profile for The Blue Mountains residents is slightly different from that of the other three communities, with notably higher concentrations of senior managers, business professionals and professional and technical occupations in art, culture and recreation. Blue Mountains shares with Clearview a higher proportion of workers in agriculture and with all local communities a high concentration of workers in the construction trades. _______ 1 The Blue Mountains does not fall within the catchment area of SMWDB, but these four municipalities have a history of collaborating and they have close labour market connections. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 31 The other three communities have higher proportions of male residents across the trades, transport and equipment operator occupations. Clearview and Collingwood have higher proportions of manufacturing assemblers. Collingwood also has higher proportion of machine operators and has more males working in retail and food & accommodation occupations (as managers, sales clerks and chefs and cooks) and other sales and service occupations. Wasaga Beach has a notably higher proportion of residents working in protective services (police officers, firefighters, security guards, armed forces personnel other than commissioned officers). Occupations for females resident in The Blue Mountains also reflect higher end jobs (such as finance and insurance occupations, lawyers, social workers, teachers and real estate agents) as well as contractors and in construction trades. The Blue Mountains and Collingwood have more women working as managers in retail and food & accommodation services, and Collingwood similarly has a higher proportion of female real estate agents. The Blue Mountains shares with Clearview a higher concentration of women working in agriculture. Otherwise, Clearview, Collingwood and Wasaga Beach have a larger proportion of female residents working in the assisting occupations in health (most likely personal support workers, but this also includes dental assistants). Collingwood has a higher proportion of food and beverage servers, and workers in travel, accommodation, recreation and sport; Wasaga Beach has a high number of women working as cashiers, and Clearview has a high proportion of manufacturing assemblers. Employer survey An employer survey was carried out between July 6 and August 9, 2011, generating 99 completions. The respondents were well distributed by industry, by geography and by employee size, so that while not a scientific sample, the survey responses do represent a good cross-section of employers in the local area. For that reason, these responses may also have relevance for other communities. Employers were asked to identify their workforce in terms of work status (full-time or part-time, permanent or non-permanent), as well as by skill level. Table 6 lists the responses for work status. ALL Services Knowledge Manufacturing Health & Social Other Table 6: Percentage of employees by work status and by industry Full-time (30 hrs+) Part-time (<30 hrs) 66% 34% 56% 44% 73% 27% 96% 4% 53% 47% 75% 25% Permanent Non-permanent 51% 49% 27% 73% 83% 17% 96% 4% 78% 22% 94% 6% Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 32 Services includes: Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Knowledge includes: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Education; Public Administration Other includes: Agriculture; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate and Rental & Leasing; Other Services The proportion of both part-time and non-permanent employment is particularly pronounced in the Service sector, as is part-time employment in the Health & Social Assistance sector (which also has the second highest proportion of non-permanent employment). Employers were asked to provide a breakdown of their staffing numbers by the following categories: • Entry level (jobs that usually require no more than a high school education, could be performed by low skilled and/or inexperienced staff; can include clerical, sales & customer service, labourer jobs); • Intermediate level (semi-skilled or skilled, typically filled by employees with 2 years or more job experience, or someone with specific training; entry-level manager); • Senior level (experienced management, professionals, highly specialized skilled worker). As Chart 7 illustrates, the Service sector stands out with its high proportion of entry-level jobs, while at the opposite end of the spectrum, the Knowledge sector stands out for its very low proportion of entrylevel jobs. The Knowledge, Health & Social Assistance and Other sectors have high proportions of Senior and Intermediate occupations, while Manufacturing has a balance, with half of its jobs defined as entrylevel and the other half a mix of Intermediate and Senior positions. Chart 7: Percentage of employees by skill category and by industry sector Not surprisingly, the prerequisite educational qualifications for a job varied by skill level, increasing as one moved up the skills ladder. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 33 Entry Level Intermediate Senior 27% 7% 7% 58% 34% 24% 5% 21% 14% 13% 12% 49% 50% 36% 38% Master’s Degree or Higher Bachelor’s Degree College Diploma Specialized Training Trades Certificate High School Diploma No Certificate Table 8: Educational qualifications for jobs by skill category 2% 15% 2% 1% 20% 41% Answers do not add up to 100% because respondents were allowed to choose more than one answer. Bolded cells highlight larger concentrations of responses. In a similar fashion, employers distinguished the experience requirements for different skill levels. Table 9: Experience qualifications for jobs by skill category Entry Level Intermediate Senior 5 or More Years Experience No Experience 2-4 years Experience 67% 36% 9% 6& 83% 6% 18% 19% 83% Bolded cells highlight larger concentrations of responses. Employers were asked whether they expected a higher number of workers than usual retiring in the next five years. Slightly over a quarter (27%) did, however the differences by sector were substantial (see Chart 10). Among Manufacturing employers, almost half (46%) expect retirements to increase, while among employers of establishments that rely completely on tourism, none did. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 34 Chart 10: Percentage of employers who expect a higher number of workers retiring in the next five years, by industry sector Employers were asked to rate the degree of difficulty in finding qualified job candidates for the three job skill levels, Entry-level, Intermediate and Senior positions. Table 11: Degree of difficulty in finding qualified job candidates by skill level Entry-level Intermediate Senior Not challenging Somewhat challenging Very challenging 32% 9% 6% 41% 46% 25% 27% 45% 69% Overall, the higher one moves up the skill ladder, the harder employers say it is to find qualified employees. Fully two-thirds of employers (69%) said it was very challenging finding qualified people for senior level positions. That being said, a quarter of employers also said they found it very challenging to find entry-level workers. Employers were further asked an open-ended question regarding their greatest challenge in recruiting new employees. Their responses tended to be similar when catalogued by industry, as the following table illustrates. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 35 Table 12: Greatest challenge when recruiting a new employee Knowledge Definitely education and skills, but typically also cite experience, and/or some other generic skill, such as problem-solving, customer service, public relations. Manufacturing Mention a particular certificate (tradesperson, engineer), experience; “fit” or commitment to longer-term. Services Motivated, committed/dependable, people who want to work, dealing with seasonality and/or flexible schedules; acknowledge that wages are low. Health Care & Social Cite specific experience/skill (e.g. caring for elderly), problem finding people with relevant college/university education. Other Finding people who are committed to the job; skilled trades or specific skill/certificate. While almost no employers expect the level of training to decrease over the next three years, most expect it to stay the same, except for employers in the manufacturing sector, where a considerable majority expect the level of training to increase. ALL Services Knowledge Manufacturing Health & Social Other Will decrease Will stay the same Will increase Relying completely on tourism Table 13: Investment in training three years from now 2% 56% 3% 67% 0% 55% 0% 27% 11% 57% 0% 62% 0% 67% 41% 30% 45% 73% 33% 38% 33% Employers were asked to choose from a list of employee recruitment strategies and to indicate which ones they used and how often, as well as rate their level of satisfaction with each strategy. To compare the responses, a numerical value was attached to each possible answer, as follows: Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 36 “Frequency of use” answers were assigned the following values: Always =4 Sometimes =2 Rarely =1 Never =0 “Satisfaction of use” answers were assigned the following values: Very satisfied = 2 Satisfied =1 Not satisfied: = -1 Tabulates the average value for all the responses. Table 14: Employment recruitment strategies – frequency of use and level of satisfaction Frequency of use Satisfaction Most frequent strategies Highest satisfaction Word of mouth Electronic postings Employee recommendations 2.60 2.30 2.15 Internal postings 2.04 Newspaper advertisements Walk-ins or inquiries 2.02 1.85 Electronic postings Social media 0.76 0.67 1.05 0.98 Walk-ins or inquiries Non-profit community agencies Newspaper advertisements 0.58 0.56 0.34 Less frequent strategies Non-profit community agencies Private recruitment or temp agencies Least frequent strategies Social media Job fairs Word of mouth Employee recommendations Internal postings 1.24 1.20 1.03 Less satisfied Least satisfied 0.58 0.44 Private recruitment or temp agencies Job fairs 0.05 -0.25 There is a broad co-relation between the frequency of use and satisfaction level with a particular strategy. It is striking that word-of-mouth still remains the mechanism employers most often use and are most satisfied with. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 37 Recommendations The study recommendations, while particular to the South Georgian Bay area, may also have relevance for other communities with similar labour market issues. The recommendations divide into two categories: firstly, over-arching themes, and secondly, specific initiatives. The two over-arching themes are: (1) to focus on middle category jobs, those jobs that require a skill typically acquired through a college degree and/or through extended on-the-job training and experience; and (2) to promote networks to tackle various labour market challenges. The specific initiatives include: • More efforts to support local manufacturing, by: formalizing a local manufacturers’ network; by having the manufacturers’ network focus on common recruitment, hiring and training challenges; and to undertake more outreach to high school students to familiarize them with career opportunities in manufacturing; • To support the local tourism sector though: promoting employee engagement strategies among employers; publicizing career opportunities among prospective and current employees; and working with employers to establish clear career ladder opportunities for employees; • To explore with the area’s local health integration network the feasibility of establishing a career ladder program in the health care field; • To explore alternative programs to enhance transportation options for local residents who need to commute to employment; • To develop a formal trailing spouse program, to enhance the ability of local employers to recruit senior level staff; • To engage further with Georgian College as a key partner in local workforce development; • To engage with Simcoe County Ontario Works and their employment services to develop labour market projects that respond to employer needs and that can offer training and employment opportunities to marginalized residents seeking jobs; • To explore options for a shared incubator space for knowledge sector start-ups; • To create a small, local venture capital fund for knowledge sector start-ups; • To find a way for the various resources that currently are available for entrepreneurial support to collaborate and offer a one-window approach for accessing their array of services and resources. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 38 2011- 2012 Action Plan Update 1. Apprenticeship Evenings – Simcoe & Muskoka Specialty Trade Contractors and Construction of Buildings remain in the top five employers in both Simcoe and Muskoka. Ongoing infrastructure building will create hundreds of construction jobs through employment of local trades and construction related suppliers. Additionally, ongoing population growth in Simcoe Muskoka will place pressure on the demand for skilled trades. Two dinner events were held, one in Simcoe and one in Muskoka, to honour apprentices who have become certified over the past two years. These events also recognized and honoured employers who have made a significant contribution to promoting and supporting the skilled trades. These events promoted awareness of skilled trades in the community and the job opportunities that are available. 2. Health and Safety Forum The majority of employers in Simcoe and Muskoka are small and medium size employers. The number of employers employing 1 to 99 employees in both regions increased from 2008 to 2010. Small employers do not have the resources to hire experts in health and safety in order to comply with Ministry regulations. LLMP Consultations indicate that there is a great deal of misconception regarding regulations of the Occupational Health and Safety Act. A forum, in partnership with Chambers of Commerce in Simcoe and Muskoka as well as local HR groups, was held for employers to increase knowledge about Ministry regulations and setting up a health and safety program for the workplace. Information and awareness of the requirements of the Occupational Health and Safety Act was provided and a keynote speaker with expertise in health and safety was featured. Access to and awareness of the SMWDB Health and Safety Guide was provided. Local businesses now have easy access to health and safety information and will be able to develop health and safety programs with greater efficiency and at less cost. Employers will save time and expense that can be better used to grow their business. 3. Accessibility Made Simple According to the June 2010 Canadian Business Patterns Data, the largest number of employers is in Small and Medium Enterprises with under 100 employees. This represents 99% of employers in the area. Information obtained at LLMP Consultations with local business owners indicates concern regarding the Accessible Customer Service Standard under the Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act that became effective January 1, 2012. This Act requires that customers with disabilities be provided appropriate, respectful and equitable access to goods and services. Enterprises find it a challenge to stay current with government regulations and find reputable, regulated facilitators to provide training. This year a forum was held in conjunction with the Canadian Hearing Society, local HR groups, Simcoe Community Services and the Greater Barrie Business Enterprise Centre to identify gaps and to provide employers with accurate, reliable information on the new Act. Employers are now better able to locate the necessary information and training to comply with regulations. Training will be provided to staff so that Persons with Disabilities will be better served. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 39 4. Literacy Skills – Plain and Simple A recent survey by Statistics Canada found that about one out of every three adults in Ontario would benefit from literacy education. LLMP consultations reveal that employers are concerned about literacy skills of their current workforce including oral communication, reading text and writing. In order for employers, service providers and job seekers to have a better understanding of options available to upgrade educational requirements we partnered with the Simcoe Muskoka Literacy Network in the distribution of an information brochure. The difference between program credentials and options was outlined and simplified for ease of use. The Adult Education Options brochures developed by Quill Learning Network and Four County labour Market Planning Board were printed and distributed to Employment Ontario Service Providers, one version for employers and one for students. 5. Employer Business Forum – What’s In It For Me? According to Statistics Canada, the population in the 60 -64 years age range is higher than the provincial average by .29% in Simcoe and by 2.06% in Muskoka. LLMP consultations reported that 45% of employers surveyed in Simcoe and 51% in Muskoka were expecting employees to retire in the next year. Almost all reported that they would be replacing these positions. For example, tourism and health care are major employers in the area and will be looking to hire additional staff. Employers need to be made aware of incentives available through government initiatives to hire employees. A series of Employer Forums in conjunction with Employment Service Providers, Ontario Disability Support Program, Georgian College, Simcoe/Muskoka Literacy Network, The Career Connection, Ontario Works, Service Canada and YMCA Newcomers Group were held in different areas featuring a panel of service providers to provide information to employers about services available to them. 6. Tourism Workforce Study According to Statistics Canada and Canadian Business Patterns for June 2010, the top employer group in Simcoe and Muskoka in Small and Medium Enterprise, is Food Services and Drinking Places. Accommodation Services ranks as the 4th largest employer in Muskoka. The percentage of residents employed in tourism is 9.4% in Simcoe and 12.9% in Muskoka compared with 7.5% of Ontario residents. Tourism in Simcoe Muskoka is essentially a seasonal industry. Statistics from the census are from a snapshot captured in the month of May. This does not show an accurate prediction of the workforce employed in the tourism industry year-round. A more accurate description will facilitate effective future economic planning and hiring of international workers. In partnership with the Regional Tourism Offices and the local Tourism Industry a study will be conducted to collect relevant statistics on workforce development in the tourism industry. This information will provide employers in the tourism industry and Regional Tourism Offices with much needed labour market information. Focus groups are being held to determine the necessary information required and a presentation with the findings will be provided. Integrated local labour market information will be available for development of workforce strategies in the tourism industry. This will aid in job development and projected growth in the industry. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 40 Other Activities Passport to Prosperity SMWDB delivers the Passport to Prosperity campaign. The program is a province-wide program funded by the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities. Passport to Prosperity is designed to increase employer awareness and participation in work opportunity experiences for high school students. The campaign is an employer-led recruitment effort to help students explore career options and develop workplace skills and experiences. Some of the initiatives that the Passport to Prosperity campaign have been part of include: • An Employer Breakfast in Midland providing information to employers regarding employer’s supports and wage incentives, skilled trades and employer training, co-op, and apprenticeships. • Co-op Employer Appreciation Breakfasts to bring together the business community that supports experiential learning and to thank all the supporters who have provided students with cooperative placements throughout the school year. • Midland Youth Conference was a way to learn and explore different career options for grade 10 students across North Simcoe. This event took place in May and featured workshops, tours and demonstrations at a number of on-site locations so students could get hands on experience of various opportunities. The half day focused on a number of exciting careers. Skills Work! For Women® Skills Canada–Ontario spearheads the “Skills Work!® for Women” Networking Dinners, an award-winning program designed to introduce young women in high school, interested in skilled trades and technologies, to female mentors who are currently working, studying or teaching in a related career field. A “Skills Work!® for Women” Networking Dinner was held November 15th at Fendley Hall in Barrie. This year the event benefited from the support of the Simcoe Muskoka Workforce Development Board. There were 81 attendees - 42 students, 12 mentors, and 27 guests. The 42 young women that participated were from Simcoe County District School Board and Simcoe Muskoka Catholic District School Board and came from Barrie, Bradford, Collingwood, Elmvale, Midland, Orillia and Stayner. Of the 12 mentors, the following skilled trade and technology backgrounds were represented: electrical, landscape design, carpentry/cabinet making, precision skills, highway road inspection, welding, marine technology, hairstyling, developmental services, web animation and design, and goldsmithing. The event ran smoothly and received positive feedback from students, mentors, educators and guests. Simcoe County Youth Directory An updated version of the Youth Directory was printed and distributed this year. It was first produced in 1999 and was reproduced in 2003. This Directory has proven to be extremely valuable particularly to social service agencies, police, school boards, schools and young people. There has been a consistent community demand and requests for an updated version. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 41 Strategic Priorities and Actions 1. Skilled Trades Expo With new structures in place, it is important for employers and job seekers to have updated information regarding the quality of education that trades students receive. There is still a need in the community for employers to take on apprenticeships and misconceptions by job seekers regarding entering the trade skills sector as a career. “With the emergence of our knowledge economy, the proportion of the labour force requiring some form of education or training beyond high school will increase dramatically. Using a variety of Canadian and U. S. estimates, it is concluded that by 2031 we will need 77% of our workforce to have postsecondary credentials (apprenticeship, university, college, industry, professional). Overall, we now stand at about 60%, with our younger population (25 to 34 years of age) at just over 66%.” Miner Management Consultants for Ontario’s Workforce Shortage Coalition. Students are still not seeing trades as a viable career option. Employers are reluctant to take on apprentices due to economy uncertainty. To provide Simcoe Muskoka employers increased awareness of trades, demonstrate the variety of advanced learning and engage with students, in their own region, SMWDB will be hosting an Employer Luncheon on May 16th and 17th, 2012 at the Georgian College, Midland Campus Skilled Trades Expo. 2. Resource Guide Focusing on Hiring Practices for Persons with Disabilities Small and Medium Enterprises don’t always have the resources or the expertise to understand or implement specialized HR practices and diversity planning. Additionally, SMWDB frequently fields requests from Social Services organizations for this type of information to be disseminated. Specifically, some employers have chronic employee shortages but don’t understand how to recruit, interview, orientate, train, integrate and maintain persons with disabilities. “While some progress has been made in the areas of race and gender, people with disabilities continue to be significantly underrepresented in our workplaces. Their numbers are growing steadily in the population and it is becoming increasingly important to include this community in corporate Canada. We need to address the business case, the benefits and the challenges to doing so. We have to give people with disabilities a voice at the table and full access to the workforce.” Integrating People With Disabilities (PWD) Into the Workplace White paper, Summary of Deloitte’s Dialogue on diversity roundtables, July 2010, Setting the Stage SMWDB in partnership with HR specialists, employers and persons with disabilities will develop a committee to determine what and how specialized data should be presented in the resource guide. The resource will provide information on how to identify barriers and provide appropriate accommodations, ensuring all potential employees receive equal opportunity. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 42 3. Communications Strategy SMWDB understands that creating and maintaining enhanced awareness of our agency by employers and other community stakeholders will facilitate securing and implementing more impactful projects and an enhanced image. According to 13 Mind-Bending Social Media Marketing Statistics by Inbound Internet Marketing Blog: There are more than 3.5 billion pieces of content (web links, news stories, blog posts, etc.) shared each week on Facebook. (http://econsultancy.com/us/reports/social-media-statistics) 43 percent of all online consumers are social media fans or followers (http://harpsocial.com/2011/04/social-medias-shocking-statistics/) 6. 35 hours of video footage is uploaded to YouTube every minute. (http://www.reelseo.com/youtube-statistics/) Every day, 2,300 new Wikipedia articles are created, adding to its 17 million articles, with contributions from 91,000 active contributors. (http://www.ecademy.com/node.php?id=166989) The primary objectives of the SMWDB Board of Directors and staff will be to address our communities’ lack of awareness of some labour market issues via creation of social media engagement opportunities, enhancement of our non-interactive website, development of a newsletter/blog, updated branding of our marketing materials, creation of better office signage and increased media attention (owned, earned and paid). 4. County of Simcoe Ontario Works Department Labour Market Analysis The object of this project is to promote the creation of broad industry/community partnerships necessary to address labour market issues; assist local communities with the development of innovative strategies to prepare for future skills requirements and prevent skills shortages within new and emerging industries and organizations; plan for effective utilization of local human resources; and to develop and promote labour market intelligence and its use in labour market development. Currently there is no up to date labour market analysis available to Simcoe County stakeholders. Our region requires both a full analysis of the current state of each dimension, an understanding of future needs, and a plan that will bridge the gap that exists between both elements. Our last market survey was the 2008 Trends and Issues in Simcoe County prepared by Tom Zizys. The ongoing key labour issue that needs to be addressed is the harmonization between supply and demand components of the labour market as well as the identification of Alternate Employment and Economic Strategies. SMWDB is supporting the County of Simcoe Ontario Works Department lead project through a $25,000 in-kind contribution to this initiative through assisting in compiling statistical information, coordinating focus groups and managing resources over a two year period to bring employers together. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 43 5. Workforce One-Stop Lunch and Learn focusing on Topical Issues in Todays’ Workforce. Currently, employers are unable to fill positions, however, on the other hand, job seekers with job placement challenges find it difficult to secure employment due to a lack of understanding of their unique value. Lone Parents, Recent Immigrants, Aboriginal People and People with Disabilities SMWDB plans to alleviate challenges in attracting, retaining and enhancing local talent by accessing diverse groups by the business community so they can expand their labour pool by offering a half-day workforce ‘Lunch and Learn’ in the fall of Source: Data for lone parents, recent immigrants and Aboriginal people, 2012, including several local diversity specialists to educate attendees followed HRSCD calculations based on Statistics Canada. Census 2006 data (not by a tradeshow to facilitate networking and published); and for people with disabilities, Statistics Canada. Education, information sharing. Employment and Income of Adults With and Without Disabilities – Tables. Ottawa: Statistic s Canada, 2009 (Cat No. 89-587-XIE). The focus will be on: • • • 6. How to do more to prepare workers for rapidly changing workplaces and marketplaces. Dealing with skills gaps and generation wars between workers. Learning how to access diverse sources of skilled labour, such as immigrants, people with disabilities, those with criminal records and Aboriginal peoples. Immigration Resource Guide for Immigrants to Simcoe County The County of Simcoe is poised for exceptional growth over the next several years, and is projected to grow to 667,000 by 2031 (Places to Grow, Province of Ontario, Schedule 7). Recent immigrants are almost twice as likely as their Canadian born counterparts to move into rural and small town areas. (Rural and Small Town Analysis Bulletin, Vol.8, No. 2, p.15). We can extrapolate from this that the projected increased population will be comprised of recent immigrants at a ratio of 2:1. Some sectors of the economy are already experiencing labour force shortages (health), which will need to rely heavily on foreign trained professionals to meet their needs. The County of Simcoe needs to support newcomers in settling and integrating in order to meet the labour force needs of employers. Despite the increasing statistical evidence of a growing immigrant population, the County of Simcoe is limited in the resources available to support newcomers. Should newcomers choose to relocate due to lack of support, the County would lose an important part of the labour market which they require to meet the needs of this growing community. The Local Immigration Partnership’s (LIP) Welcoming Communities Sub Council (including libraries and 211) will work to develop the content for the resource guide. The SMWDB will fund the printing and layout of the Resource Guide. Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 44 Thank You to Our Partners Adult Learning Centres of Simcoe County Amygdalus Health & Safety Services Apprenticeship Office – Barrie Barrie Career Centre Bracebridge Employment Resource Centre Business Enterprise Resource Network Canadian Business Health Trainers Career Centre Careers for Inclusion Chamber of Commerce – Barrie Chamber of Commerce – Orillia City of Barrie City of Orillia College Boreal Construction Workforce Safety Training County of Simcoe Effective Accessibility Employment North Excellence in Manufacturing FCS Fire Consulting Service Focus Development Corporation Georgian College Georgian College – Bracebridge Georgian College – Orillia Industrial Safety Trainers Job Connect, Georgian College – Barrie Lakehead University Ministry of Education Ministry of Tourism MTCU – Barrie Northern Lights North Simcoe Development Corp. Nottawasaga Economic Development Corporation Occupational Safety Group Ontario Non-Profit Network Ontario Works Orillia Community Development Corp. Orillia Manufacturers Association Orillia & District Construction Association Red Cross Regional Tourism Organization Muskoka Regional Tourism Organization Simcoe Service Canada – Barrie Service Canada – Lakeland Service Canada – Midland Simcoe County District School Board Simcoe Muskoka Catholic District School Board Simcoe Muskoka Literacy Network Skills Canada Tourism Barrie Town of Bracebridge Town of Gravenhurst Township of Oro-Medonte Economic Development Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 45 Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 46 Simcoe Muskoka Workforce Development Board 18 Alliance Boulevard, Unit 22, Barrie, Ontario L4M 5A5 tel 705-725-1011 1-800-337-4598 fax 705-725-1687 [email protected] www.labourtrends.ca This Employment Ontario project is funded by the Ontario Government. Ce projet Emploi Ontario est financé par le gouvernement de l'Ontario. The views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect those of Employment Ontario. Les points de vue exprimés dans le présent document ne reflètent pas nécessairement ceux d’Emploi Ontario. Thank you to the Simcoe Muskoka District Health unit for usage of their map on our cover Simcoe and Muskoka’s Trends, Priorities and Opportunities 47