Planning for the Future: - Raymore

Visualizing Success
Planning for the Future:
What is Happening Here!
May 24, 2012
Discussion Points
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Introduction of RSP & Associates
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Enrollment Model Discussion (Part 1)
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Development Discussion (Part 2)
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Where it has been
Where it will be
Context of planning area and development
Enrollment Projections Discussion (Part 3)
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Sophisticated Forecast Model
Planning Areas
Model Components
Issues and Assumptions
Past Enrollment
Baseline Data
District
Elementary School
Intermediate School
Middle School
High School
Next Steps(Part 4)
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About RSP – Visualizing Success
Founded in 2003
Professional planning and educational firm
Robert Schwarz
CEO, AICP, REFP
Expertise in multiple disciplines
Over 20 years of planning experience
Justin Hawley
Andy Henry
KGISD
Over 80 years of education experience
Over 20 years of GIS experience
Mark Porter
Ed.D
Matthew Wendt
Ed.D
Clients in Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, and
Missouri
Projection accuracy of 97% or greater
Susan Swift
Ph.D.
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Assembling The Information
School District
-Administration
County/City/Others
-MODOT
-Cass County
-City of Belton
-City of Lake Winnebago
-City of Lee’s Summit
-City of Peculiar
-City of Raymore
-Census Bureau
-ESRI
Part 1:
Enrollment and
Demographics
Discussion
General Conclusions
• The district will increase between 20 and 100 more students each year
• The district 2014/15 midpoint enrollment should exceed 6,000 student enrollment
• 2016/17 Elementary and High School enrollment is expected to be greater than it is in
2011/12
• Elementary and Intermediate transfers happen and need to be closely monitored to be
sure capacity is not impacted at any of the facilities
• New residential development will occur at a much slower rate impacting enrollment yield
rates
• Future residential development will likely continue in subdivisions that have already been
platted and infrastructure is readily available
• Midpoint projections indicate no capacity issues at elementary or high school
• Midpoint projections indicate Raymore Peculiar East Middle School will be close to its
building capacity, exceeding it in 2012/13
District Map
•
Five Cities in district boundary
(Belton, Lake Winnebago, Lee’s
Summit, Peculiar, and Raymore)
•
Cities in some cases in more than
one school district
Elementary Map
•
•
•
•
•
•
Creekmoor
Peculiar
Raymore
Shull
Stonegate
Timber Creek
Planning Areas Created
•
Natural Features
- Creeks/Rivers
- Watersheds
•
Manmade Features
- Rail roads
- Roads
•
Land Use
- Residential
- Nonresidential
•
Type of Residential Development
- Single Family
- Mobile Homes
- Duplex / Condo
- Apartments
- Nonresidential
•
Existing Attendance Boundaries
Past School Enrollment
Year
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
K
304
325
367
385
415
400
450
396
448
408
425
437
1st
293
338
341
401
393
434
459
468
416
453
408
426
2nd
300
329
352
366
431
402
457
449
474
403
458
423
3rd
355
326
339
372
395
452
428
493
448
475
400
480
4th
321
362
340
357
380
392
470
442
514
461
476
406
5th
327
347
378
364
384
413
403
467
447
513
475
490
6th
374
360
369
401
382
401
432
418
478
453
518
476
7th
316
380
365
403
437
399
416
464
425
481
472
520
8th
339
335
387
382
417
444
423
418
471
426
501
462
9th
357
363
336
401
412
441
470
446
434
477
420
500
10th
339
361
358
349
411
416
450
460
440
451
475
424
11th
294
338
352
370
355
420
412
438
448
429
426
446
12th
267
280
327
334
357
354
392
362
386
400
394
377
Source: Raymore-Peculiar School District (2000/01 to 2011/12)
Pig in the Snake Effect
Largest class in 2011/12 – 7th grade (506)
Smallest class in 2011/12 – 12th grade (377)
Graduating senior class smaller than the next year incoming Kindergarten class
Enrollment provided by the district – student data is last school day count
Does not include Early Childhood, Home School, Private School, or Parochial School
Total
4,186
4,444
4,611
4,885
5,169
5,368
5,662
5,721
5,829
5,830
5,848
5,867
Past School Enrollment Change
From
To
2000/01 2001/02
2001/02 2002/03
2002/03 2003/04
2003/04 2004/05
2004/05 2005/06
2005/06 2006/07
2006/07 2007/08
2007/08 2008/09
2008/09 2009/10
2009/10 2010/11
2010/11 2011/12
3-Yr Avg
3-Yr Weighted Avg
K
21
42
18
30
-15
50
-54
52
-40
17
12
-3.7
5.0
K
1st
34
16
34
8
19
59
18
20
5
0
1
2.0
1.3
1st
2nd
36
14
25
30
9
23
-10
6
-13
5
15
2.3
7.0
2nd
3rd
26
10
20
29
21
26
36
-1
1
-3
22
6.7
10.2
3rd
4th
7
14
18
8
-3
18
14
21
13
1
6
6.7
5.5
4th
5th
26
16
24
27
33
11
-3
5
-1
14
14
9.0
11.5
5th
6th
33
22
23
18
17
19
15
11
6
5
1
4.0
3.2
6th
7th
6
5
34
36
17
15
32
7
3
19
2
8.0
7.8
7th
8th
19
7
17
14
7
24
2
7
1
20
-10
3.7
1.8
8th
9th
24
1
14
30
24
26
23
16
6
-6
-1
-0.3
-1.5
9th
10th
4
-5
13
10
4
9
-10
-6
17
-2
4
6.3
4.2
10th
11th
-1
-9
12
6
9
-4
-12
-12
-11
-25
-29
-21.7
-24.7
Source: Raymore-Peculiar School District (2000/01 to 2011/12)
Largest average class increase – 4th to 5th grade (9.0)
Largest average class decrease – 11th to 12th grade (-44.0)
Propensity to have cohort increase students from year to year in most grades
Enrollment provided by the district – student data is last school day count
Does not include Early Childhood, Home School, Private School, or Parochial School
11th
12th
-14
-11
-18
-13
-1
-28
-50
-52
-48
-35
-49
-44.0
-44.2
In-Migration Map
•
2011/12 students who are in 1st
through 12th grade that were not
attending the district in 2010/11 as
kindergarten through 11th grade
•
Who is new to the District that was
not attending the previous year
•
Are there any clusters?
•
Is it related to a particular type of
Development (SF, MF, Dup)?
•
Is it related to changes in the
community?
•
Is it related to perceptions of a
school building?
•
Student data is last school day
count for 2010/11 and 2011/12
Out-Migration
•
students attending the district in
2010/11 who were in kindergarten
through 11th grade that are not
attending in 2011/12 as 1st
through 12th grade
•
Who was in the District that is not
attending the current year
•
Are there any clusters?
•
Is it related to a particular type of
Development (SF, MF, Dup)?
•
Is it related to changes in the
community?
•
Is it related to perceptions of a
school building?
•
Student data is last school day
count for 2010/11 and 2011/12
Census 0-4 Ages in 2016
•
Depicted by Census Blocks with
2016 estimates
•
Density weighted by Census Block
•
Children age 0-4
•
Red areas greatest density
•
Blue areas least density
•
Census data likely not yet factoring
in the change that is taken place in
the latest residential
developments
Census Female Population in 2016
•
Depicted by Census Blocks with
2016 estimates
•
Density weighted by Census Block
•
Females 15-59
•
Red areas greatest density
•
Blue areas least density
•
Census data likely not yet factoring
in the change that is taken place in
the latest residential
developments
Population Change
2011 Total Population 0-4
Raymore-Peculiar School
District
6.6%
2011 Total Population 5-9
7.6%
7.4%
2011 Total Population 10-14
8.0%
7.8%
Age of Population in Years
Cass County, MO
6.7%
2011 Total Population 15-19
6.9%
7.0%
2011 Total Population 20-64
56.8%
57.4%
2011 Total Population 65-84
12.1%
12.1%
2.0%
1.6%
2011 Total Population 85+
100.0%
100.0%
2016 Total Population 0-4
Total
6.7%
6.7%
2016 Total Population 5-9
7.5%
7.3%
2016 Total Population 10-14
8.0%
7.7%
2016 Total Population 15-19
6.4%
6.5%
2016 Total Population 20-64
55.6%
56.2%
2016 Total Population 65-84
13.8%
13.8%
2016 Total Population 85+
Total
2.2%
1.7%
100.0%
100.0%
Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online
The Raymore Peculiar School District closely mirrors the Cass County breakdown by
cohort group – likely because the district is located where the most change is happening
in Cass County.
Enrollment Conclusions
• Midpoint data indicates enrollment will continue to increase
• Some elementary and intermediate school students have elected to
take advantage of district school choice options (Transfers)
• Raymore Peculiar East Middle School will be the only facility
exceeding building capacity at the midpoint projection and only in
2012/13
• Enrollment tends to increase Kdg to 10th
• The largest increase from grade to grade is elementary grades
• Enrollment increases have occurred in many of the older developed
areas of the community
• The district should continue to annually monitor enrollment
• Hottest new residential projects will be on the north side of district
Part 2:
Development
Discussion
Assumptions For Future
• The recession will likely begin to show signs of recovery in 2012
• Mortgage interest rates have reached a historic low and likely will remain below 6%
• Subprime loans will continue to impact new development potential
• The rate of foreclosures should continue to decline over the next five years
• Recirculation of existing homes will remain stable
• Final Platted developments will be the location of most development – less potential
for creating new developments that have not been through the development process
• Unemployment rates will remain below 10%
• Nonresidential developments continue to be built to meet employment demand and
need
• Fuel prices will remain near $4.00
• Private and Parochial school enrollment remains stable
If more of these variables track toward being positive for the district – likely will start
moving toward the high projections – the converse can also occur – midpoint projection is
what the district should use for planning purposes.
Development Trends
2000
Change From Previous Year
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
2000 to
2001
2001 to
2002
2002 to
2003
2003 to
2004
2004 to
2005
2005 to
2006
2006 to
2007
2007 to
2008
2008 to
2009
2009 to
2010
2010 to
2011
Building Trend
386
518
416
636
749
663
435
165
90
76
109
Population Change
866
1,034
1,388
1,115
1,704
1,657
1,577
1,166
442
241
237
Enrollment Change
258
167
274
284
199
294
59
108
1
18
19
Source: Census Estimates, Raymore Peculiar School District Enrollment and RSP SFM & Demographic Models
The above numbers reflect census population change, District enrollment change,
and Certificate of Occupancies issued each year. – student data is last school day count
Where will growth be?
•
Is development changing?
•
Will this impact enrollment?
•
Will this impact the use of
facilities?
Plan for the Future
•
Will land uses change?
•
What type of land uses are being planned?
•
Red areas nonresidential
•
•
Yellow and orange areas residential
Much of the future growth areas are nonresidential
Unique Situation
•
Will the development continue as
initially planned?
•
Will households be able to afford
the types of housing stock being
built?
•
What housing products will be built
(SF, MF, smaller or larger)?
•
Is residential development
happening at the anticipated rate?
•
Is the economy a positive or
negative outlook for the
community?
Planning Area Change Map (Density)
•
Depicts student movement at each
planning area from 2007/08 to
2011/12 (last school day count)
•
Planning areas enrollment
associated by density of each
planning area (Square mile) to
normalize the geographic size of
each planning area
•
Green areas experienced a
decrease
•
Orange areas experienced an
increase
•
(Is it related to a particular type of
Development (SF, MF, Dup)?
•
Is it related to changes in the
community?
•
Is it related to perceptions of a
school building?
•
Some older areas of the
community “regreening”
Part 3:
Enrollment
Projections
Discussion
Past, Current & Future Enrollment
8,000
K-4
9-12
5-8
Mid K-4
Mid 5-8
Mid 9-12
Total
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,186
4,000
1,257
4,444
1,342
4,611
1,373
4,885
1,454
3,000
1,631
1,620
1,657
5,867
5,894
5,928
6,027
6,051
6,127
5,662
5,721
1,708
1,757
1,715
1,747
1,774
1,858
1,943
1,953
1,926
1,724
1,706
1,674
1,767
1,821
1,873
1,966
1,948
1,909
1,888
1,867
1,843
1,909
1,422
1,499
1,739
1,881
2,014
2,080
2,248
2,300
1,680
2,264
2,200
2,167
2,172
2,211
2,182
2,217
2,255
2,291
1,573
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
1,000
1,535
5,368
5,830
5,848
2000/01
2,000
1,550
5,169
5,829
1,356
0
Source: Raymore-Peculiar School District Official Count and RSP SFM & Demographic Models
The above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment Count
Student data is last school day count for 2000/01 to 2011/12
Future Numbers are the Midpoint Projection
Elementary Enrollment Projections
School
Creekmoor Elementary
Capacity 550
Grades K-4
Peculiar Elementary
Capacity 515
Grades K-4
Raymore Elementary
Capacity 570
Grades K-4
Shull Elementary
Capacity 315
Grades K-4
Stonegate Elementary
Capacity 500
Grades K-4
Timber Creek Elementary
Capacity 500
Grades K-4
Student
Location
Future Enrollment By Student Residence
Future Enrollment By Student Attendance
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Reside/Attend
Reside
Attend
372
421
414
393
437
415
443
466
455
Reside/Attend
Reside
Attend
Reside/Attend
Reside
Attend
Reside/Attend
Reside
Attend
Reside/Attend
Reside
Attend
Reside/Attend
Reside
Attend
319
351
345
381
440
444
223
255
254
335
369
375
327
364
368
308
329
330
399
438
436
232
254
264
339
362
372
322
347
350
287
307
303
422
451
439
247
265
267
325
335
350
337
348
358
Reside
Attend
2,200
2,200
2,167
2,167
2,172
2,172
485
479
485
491
510
470
464
471
476
495
315
316
319
330
331
313
313
317
328
329
454
444
453
456
458
445
435
445
447
449
269
256
255
261
263
274
260
259
266
268
332
313
309
320
324
345
326
322
333
338
357
376
396
397
405
364
384
404
404
412
2,211
2,182
2,217
2,255
2,291
2,211
2,182
2,217
2,255
2,291
ELEMENTARY TOTAL
Capacity 2,950
Grades K-4
Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - April 2012
Exceed District 2011/12 Capacity
Note 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student
Note 2: School Choice Options between Facilities are depicted in the Projections
Note 3: Early Childhood, Home School and Academy students are not in the enrollment projections
Note 4: Capacity of each facility provided by the Raymore Peculiar School District
Note 5: Reside is based on the student address assoicated with an attendance area
Note 6: Attend is based on which the facility a student attended that school year
Note 7: Reside/Attend is the number of students who resided and attended the facility the boundary assinged for that address
Projections are based on Student Residency
Student data is last school day count for 2009/10 to 2011/12
Secondary Enrollment Projections
School
Bridle Ridge Intermediate
Capacity 600
Grades 5-6
Eagle Glen Intermediate
Capacity 600
Grades 5-6
Student
Future Enrollment By Student Residence
Future Enrollment By Student Attendance
Location
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Reside/Attend
445
473
473
Reside
492
519
505
440
447
475
421
432
415
421
449
396
407
Attend
473
491
481
Reside/Attend
446
456
453
Reside
474
474
461
466
463
469
487
503
491
488
495
512
529
Attend
493
502
485
Raymore Peculiar East Middle School
Capacity 1,000
Grades 7-8
Reside
Attend
907
907
973
973
982
982
1,003
978
923
935
974
1,003
978
923
935
974
Reside
Attend
1,757
1,757
1,715
1,715
1,692
1,692
1,774
1,858
1,943
1,953
1,926
1,774
1,858
1,943
1,953
1,926
Reside
Attend
1,381
1,400
1,447
1,475
1,443
1,467
1,909
1,888
1,867
1,843
1,909
1,909
1,888
1,867
1,843
1,909
Reside
Attend
1,757
1,757
1,715
1,715
1,692
1,692
1,774
1,858
1,943
1,953
1,926
1,774
1,858
1,943
1,953
1,926
Raymore Peculiar High School
Capacity 2,240
Grades 9-12
MIDDLE TOTAL
Capacity 2,200
Grades 5-8
HIGH TOTAL
Capacity 2,240
Grades 9-12
Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - April 2012
Exceed District 2011/12 Capacity
Note 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student
Note 2: School Choice Options between Facilities are depicted in the Projections
Note 3: Early Childhood, Home School and Academy students are not in the enrollment projections
Note 4: Capacity of each facility provided by the Raymore Peculiar School District
Note 5: Reside is based on the student address assoicated with an attendance area
Note 6: Attend is based on which the facility a student attended that school year
Note 7: Reside/Attend is the number of students who resided and attended the facility the boundary assinged for that address
Projections are based on Student Residency
Student data is last school day count for 2009/10 to 2011/12
Key Considerations
• Review District transfer policy and procedures
• Analyze the retention of students at each grade
• Study the impact of future educational programming that will be
integrated into the schools
• Build a model to assist with validating staffing need for the
following school year
• Create a model specifically for understanding the relationship
between kindergarten roundup and actual kindergarten enrollment
• Study the likelihood for the housing inventory to continue
attracting a demographic that has student aged children
• Continue to monitor where residential housing projects will be
built and at what specific rates of absorption
Part 4:
Next Steps
Next Steps
• Finalize the Enrollment and Demographic Report
• Work with the BOE and administration to better integrate the
information into decision making that will support World Class
Education
•Communication to the community how changing demographics
will positively impact the educational planning of the district