Dilma

Transcription

Dilma

Special Edition
Brasília,
Enviado exclusivamente para Thiago Aragão (Arko Advice)
November 2010
Political
Scenarios
Nº 155 - Brasília - DF
With 55.5 million votes,
for the first time a woman
is elected President.............. 3
Why did Dilma win?............. 4
Lula’s role after
the election.......................... 7
Challenges: political and
economic agendas and pending topics............................ 8
The PSDB after
the election........................ 10
Regional performance in the
presidential election.......... 11
Dilma will have majority
By Murillo de Aragão and Cristiano Noronha
Lula elects Dilma and
hands the PSDB their
third consecutive defeat
Photo: globo.com
Presidential
Election.................... 2
in Congress......................... 13
Elections for
Governor................. 22
PSDB elects largest
number of governors.......... 23
Performance analysis
by party.............................. 30
C
onfirming the expectations of Advice
Arko, Dilma Rousseff
was elected the first woman
president. She got 56.05%
of the votes against 43.95%
of her adversary José Serra
(PSDB). It is the third con-
Opposition elects 10 governors
Control of almost
60% of the GDP
by the opposition will be
an additional
obstacle to tax
reform.
page 10
At the state level, Dilma’s
allies will govern 17 states,
while the opposition has the
other 10. In partisan terms,
the PSDB was the big winner
with 8 governors. The PSB is
in second with 6. The PT and
PMDB each got 5. The DEM
won in two states and the
PMN in one.
secutive defeat of the PSDB
(2002, 2006 and 2010). A
combination of social, political and economic circumstances always gave Dilma a precondition for her favoritism in
the race for the Presidential
Palace, which never ceased
to exist throughout the campaign.
Dilma got more votes than Serra in
16 states. The major advantages of
the PT candidate over the toucan, in
terms of percentage was recorded
in Amazonas: 80.58% vs. 19.43%.
José Serra had more votes than
the candidate of President Lula in
11 states. The biggest advantage
of the former governor over Dilma
was in Acre: a difference of 39.38
points.
In the 10 states where the DEM
and PSDB won the race for governor, José Serra got more votes in
five: Goiás, Paraná, Roraima, Santa
Catarina and São Paulo.
Lula will continue to be very influential after the end of his term.
To preserve his legacy and keep
the established coalition intact to
secure the victory of “Lulism” in
the 2010 elections.
“
In the short term, we will not count
on the strength of the developed
economies to boost our growth.
Therefore, our own policies become
more important, our own market, our
own savings and our own economic
decisions.
Dilma Rousseff - speech page 5
“
In This
Edition
Elections 2010
Presidential Election
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 3
Exclusively for Arko clients
Special edition
With 55.5 million votes, for the
first time a woman is elected President
DILMA ROUSSEFF (pt)
46.89%
# of votes: 47,599,863
DILMA
56.05%
# of votes: 55,752,529
DILMA
SERRA
JOSÉ SERRA (PSDB)
DILMA
1st round
DILMA
BRANCO
32.62%
# of votes: 33,111,707
DILMA
SERRA
SERRA
2nd round
43.95%
# of votes:
43,711,388
BRANCO
SERRA
NULO
BRANCO
SERRA
ABSTENÇÃO
NULO
BLANK
BRANCO
# of votes: 3,478,142
2.30%
18.12%
5.51%
3.13%
# of votes: 2,452,597
C
NULO
BRANCO
NULL
NULO
# of votes: 6,117,382
4.40%
ABSTENÇÃO
# of votes: 4,689,428
ABSTENÇÃO
NULO onfirming the expectations
ABSTENÇÃO
of Arko Advice, Dilma Rous-
seff was elected the first female president of Brazil. She
received 56.05% of valid votes against 43.95% of her adversary, José Serra (PSDB). Dilma’s victory confirms at least four
ABSTENÇÃO
traditions in Brazilian presidential elections.
First: when the president’s popularity is around 40%, he tends
to elect his successor. Lula has an approval rating of around 80%.
Second: whoever leads the polls in August, when the radio
and TV campaigns begin, wins the race. It has been this way since
1989, the first direct election after the return to democracy.
Third: whoever is ahead in the first round, wins the second. In
1989 Collor got 30.57% of valid votes against Lula’s 17.18%. He
won in the second with 53% against 47% of his opponent.
In 2002, Lula had 46.47% in the first round against 23.19%
for Serra. He was elected in the second round with 61.28%. In
2006, vying for reelection, the president had 48.61% in the first
Abstention
# of votes: 24,580,962
# of votes: 29,197,152
21.50%
round against 41.64% for Geraldo Alckmin. He was reelected with
60.83%.
Lastly, whoever wins in Minas Gerais wins the presidential
election. In 1989, Collor got 36.1% in Minas (30.5% in the country)
against 23.1% (17.2%) for Lula; in 1994, Fernando Henrique got
64.8% in Minas (54.3% nationally) against 21.9% for Lula (27%); in
1998 FHC got 55.7% in Minas (53.1% nationally) against 28.1% for
Lula (31.7%). In 2002, Lula won with 53% (46.4% nationally) and
Serra got 22.9% (23.2%). This year, Dilma got 58.45% (56.01%)
against 41.55% for Serra (43.99%).
Dilma got more votes than Serra in 16 states. Her biggest advantage was in Amazonas: 80.58% x 19.43%. José Serra got more
votes than Dilma in 11 states. His biggest advantage was in Acre:
a difference of 39.38 points. In the 10 states where the PSDB and
DEM won the gubernatorial race, Serra got more votes than Dilma
in five: Goiás, Paraná, Roraima, Santa Catarina and São Paulo.
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 4
Special edition
Foto: globo.com
Why did Dilma win?
A
combination of social, political, and economic aspects
always gave Dilma Rousseff (PT) the condition of favorite
in the race for presidency.
The confirmation of this trend was due to the obvious reason that she was the candidate of the most popular president in
Brazil’s history. And also, for the simple fact that there was no new
fact that occurred during the campaign that was able to change
the trend of Dilma’s victory.
Socially, Dilma’s election represented the consecration of a
political project that benefited low income population. Economically, Dilma represented the flip side of rising incomes and consumption: companies selling more, larger volume of bank lending
and economic growth. Politically, Dilma represented the “Lulism”
that is - as a political force - a coalition of interests above parties
and ideologies.
The combination of these three vectors resulted in an agenda
that brought together opposite sides and that has not been duly
considered. In particular, by the mainstream media. Politically, the
result of the economic and social changes in Brazil is what politi-
cal scientist Cesar Romero identifies as “a chain of interest.” This
chain united unlikely allies around common interests: economic
development and income distribution, regardless of party or ideology.
Who were the supporters of the agenda? Big business, which
produces and sells. Those who supply material to the large infrastructure works. The financial system that finances and transacts
money. The commerce, which distributes and sells. The consumer
who buys now what he never bought before. The worker, who is
employed and consuming. In other words, it’s a wheel of fortune
driven by the current circumstances and that the majority wants
that to continue.
Clearly, the choice of the agenda of continuity prevailed over
all others. Even when the media and the candidates have offered
alternative agendas. The media tried to sell the agenda of fairness
and democracy. Serra tried to sell the agenda of bigger and better
experience and Marina tried to sell the agenda of the politically
and environmentally correct. It did not work nor should it, on account of factors typical of Brazil.
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 5
Special edition
Victory Speech
“My dear friends from all over Brazil,
It is my great joy to be here. Today I received from millions of
Brazilians the most important mission of my life. This fact is a demonstration of democratic progress for our country: a woman presides over Brazil for the first time. I record here my first appointment
after the election: to honor the Brazilian women, so that this fact, so
far unheard of, becomes a natural event. And it can be repeated and
expanded in businesses, civic institutions, agencies, representative
of our whole society.
Equal opportunities for men and women is an essential principle
of democracy. I would love that fathers and mothers of girls today
would look in their eyes, and tell them: Yes, women can!
My joy is even greater because the presence of a woman president of the Republic came through the sacred way of voting, the
democratic decisions of the voters, the exercise of citizenship. So
here’s another commitment to my country:
Promote democracy in all its dimensions, from the right of opinion and expression to the essential rights of food, employment and
income, decent housing and social peace.
I will ensure unrestricted freedom of press.
I will ensure the widest possible freedom of religion and worship.
I will ensure the continuous and careful observation of human
rights as clearly enshrined in our constitution.
I will safeguard our Constitution, the most important duty of the
Presidency of the Republic.
On this long journey that brought me here I could talk with and
visit all our regions. What gives me hope is the immense capacity
of our people to grab an opportunity, however simple it may be,
and with it build a better world for his family. Our people have an
amazing ability to create and engage. So here I strengthen my core
commitment: to eradicate poverty and create opportunities for all
Brazilians.
I emphasize, however, that this ambitious goal will not be held
by the government. It is a call to the nation, entrepreneurs, churches,
civil entities, universities, the press, mayors and all good people.
We can not rest while there are hungry Brazilians, while there
are families living on the streets, while poor children are abandoned to their fate. The eradication of poverty in the coming years is
therefore a goal that I have, but for which I humbly ask the support
of everyone who can help the country work to overcome the chasm
that still separates us from developed nations.
Brazil is a generous land that always returns double every seed
that is planted with loving hands looking to the future.
My conviction to take the goal of eradicating poverty is not a
theoretical certainty, but the living experience of our government,
in which immense social mobility took place, making possible today
a dream that always seemed impossible.
I recognize that we have a hard job to qualify our economic
development. This new era of prosperity created by the genius of
President Lula and the strength of our people and entrepreneurs
find its moment of greatest potential in a time where the economy
of the great nations is shaken.
In the short term, we cannot count on the strength of the economies of developed regions to fuel our growth. So, our own policies
become even more important, our own market, our own savings and
our own economic decisions.
I am far from saying, however, that we want to close the country to the world.
Quite the contrary, we will continue advocating for the broad
opening of trade relations and the end of protectionism in rich
countries, which prevents poor countries from fully realizing their
potential.
But we must recognize that we have great responsibilities in a
world that still faces the effects of a financial crisis of major proportions and that it makes use of mechanisms, not always appropriate
or balanced, to resume growth.
It is necessary, multilaterally, to establish clearer and more cautious rules for the resumption of funding markets, limiting leverage
and excessive speculation, which increase the volatility of capital
and currencies. We will act firmly in international forums for this
purpose.
We’ll take care of our economy with all responsibility. The Brazilian people will not accept more inflation as a solution for any
imbalances. The Brazilian people do not accept that the government
spend above what is sustainable.
Therefore, we will make every effort to improve the quality of public spending by simplifying and easing the taxes and the
qualification of public services. But we refuse the visions of settings
that apply to social programs, essential services to the population
and the necessary investments.
Yes, we will seek long term development, elevated rates that
are socially and environmentally sustainable. To ensure public savings.
We will ensure meritocracy in civil and public service. I will ensure the improvement of all the mechanisms that release the entrepreneurial capacity of our business and our people. Valuing the
Individual Micro Entrepreneur, to formalize millions of individual or
family businesses, expand the boundaries of modern Supersimples
and build mechanisms for economic perfection, as our government
did in civil construction, electrical sector, recovery law firms, among
others.
Regulatory agencies will have support to act with autonomy and
determination, aimed at promoting innovation, healthy competition
and effectiveness of regulated industries.
We will always clearly present out government plans. We will
always treat with transparency our goals, our results, and our difficulties.
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 6
But above all I want to reaffirm our commitment to economic
stability and economic rules, signed contracts and established achivements.
We will treat our wealth always thinking long term. So I will
work in Congress to approve the Social Fund of the Pre-Salt. Through it we want to accomplish many of our social goals.
We refuse ephemeral spending that leaves for future generations just debts and despair.
The Social Fund is a mechanism of long-term savings to support
current and future generations. It is the most important outcome of
the new model we have proposed for the operation of the pre-salt,
which reserves to the nation and the people the most important
portion of these resources.
We will definitely not sell our wealth, leaving the people only
crumbs. I committed in this campaign with the qualification of Education and Health Services and also with improving public safety, as
well as with the drug issue that ruin our families.
I reaffirm these commitments. I will appoint ministers and teams of top quality to achieve these goals. But I also will personally
accompany these crucial areas for the development of our people.
The modern view of economic development is one that values
the worker and his family, the citizen and his community, providing
access to education and quality health care. It is one that coexists
with the environment without damaging it and without creating
risks greater than the gains of development itself.
I do not wish to prolong myself in this first address to the country, but I want to reaffirm that all the commitments I assumed, I will
pursue with dedication and love. I said during the campaign that
the most needy, children, youth, people with disabilities, the unemployed worker, the elderly would have all my attention. I reaffirm
that commitment here.
I was elected with a coalition of ten parties and with the support of leaders of several other parties. I join them to build a government where the professional capacity, leadership and willingness
to serve the country will be the key criterion.
I’ll value the professional staff of public administration, regardless of party affiliation.
I also turn to opposition parties and sectors of society who
were not with us in this journey. I extend my hand to them. From my
part there will be no discrimination, privileges or cronyism.
I will be president of all Brazilians, respecting differences of
opinion, beliefs and political orientation. Our country must also improve the quality and conduct of politics. I commit myself, together
with all parties, to political reform that elevates the republican values, advancing with our young democracy.
At the same time, I say clearly that I will value a transparent
government. There will be no compromise with error, misuse and
misguidance. I will be rigid in the public interest at all levels of my
government. The organs of control and supervision will work with
my support, without ever chasing opponents or protecting friends.
I left my thanks to this final part, because I want to highlight
them. First, the people that have given me their support. I am forever grateful for the opportunity to serve my country in its highest
office. I promise to return all the love I received in double.
Special edition
But also respectfully thank those who voted in the first and second round for other candidates. They also are part of democracy’s
celebration.
I thank the party leaders who supported me and commanded
this journey, my advisors, my team and the work of those dedicated
to this hard work. Thanks to Brazilian and foreign press that operates here and every one of its crew of the electoral process.
I do not deny that some information that was divulged made
me sad. But who, like me, fought for democracy and for freedom of
opinion, and many others who are no longer among us, we dedicated all our youth to free speech, we are naturally lovers of freedom.
So I do not bear any grudge.
I said and I repeat that I prefer the noise of the free press to the
silence of dictatorships. Free journalism always helped the country
and is essential to democratic governments, pointing out errors and
providing the necessary reflexion.
I especially thank President Lula. Having the honor of his support, the privilege of working with him, having learned from his
great wisdom, are things that I will keep for all my life. Working all
these years with him gave me the exact dimension of fair ruler and
the passionate leader of his country and its people. The joy I feel for
my victory is mixed with the emotion of his farewell.
I know that a leader like Lula is never far from his people and
every one of us. I will knock on his door many times I’m sure that
I will always find it open. I know the distance of an office has no
significance for a man of such greatness and generosity. The task
to succeed him is difficult and challenging. But I will know how to
honor his legacy. I will know how to consolidate and advance his
work.
I learned from him that when one governs thinking of public
interest and the needy, an immense strength stems from our people. A force that takes the country forward and helps overcome the
biggest challenges.
After the election it is time to work. After the debates, now is
the time of unity. Unity for education, for developing, unity in the
country. Joining me there are newly elected governors, congressmen, senators. Congratulating them, I invite them independent of
color or party, for a determinate action for the future of our country.
With the conviction that the Brazilian nation will be exactly the
size of what, together, we work for together.
Thank you.
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 7
Special edition
The role of the president after the elections
Foto: globo.com
government, seek to give space to govern and consolidate Dilma
as president.
His role should be to counsel in the case of any problem or crisis. He should take the opportunity to travel and enjoy his prestige
abroad, considering, where appropriate, some temporary missions
in the context of international relations.
The third phase should be determined by the initial progress of
the Dilma administration and also by their expectations regarding
the future. Three possibilities, at least, open up: to act to strengthen Dilma in order to get four more years of government, working
to return in 2014, or even engage in the construction of a new
coalition using the municipal elections of 2012 as a test.
In general, the performance of Lula should not follow the lines
adopted by Putin or Kirchner.
“
“
T
his was one of the bigger questions addressed to analysts
at Arko Advice in recent months, especially outside of
Brazil.
From the outside, some questions were formulated with the
former Russian president Vladimir Putin as a paradigm. Others remitted to Nestor Kirchner as an example of action. Neither figure
seems appropriate for Lula after December 31, 2010.
The election of Dilma Rousseff should open a process that
will initially have three periods for Lula: the post‐election and the
commencement of the government; and after.
In the post‐election – from November to Dilma’s swearing in
(01/01/2011) Lula will be completely devoted to farewells, the
conclusion of the issues most relevant to its management and the
assembly of the new government. As responsible for building the
coalition of 11 parties that elected Dilma, he will be the arbiter
of the partisan claims around the ministries. Another mission will
be active participation in the choice of who will join the ministerial elite, namely the Civil House, Institutional Relations, Finance, Planning, Central Bank and Foreign Affairs. The second phase
corresponds to six months after taking office. During this period,
it is expected that Lula may even accompany the progress of the
Dilma will not be a candidate
for Lula’s return in 2014. This
does not exist. If Dilma is
elected, she will have an
extraordinary government
and will be a candidate for
reelection.
President Lula
Interview to IstoÉ - August 2010
Putin is very active in the management of Russia, and Kirchner
was the most powerful political figure in his country in recent times. Lula will continue to be very influential after the end of his
mandate. He will engage to preserve his legacy and keep the established coalition reasonably intact to secure the victory of “Lulism” in the 2010 elections. He will act to give Dilma’s coalition
governance conditions. However, he is not likely to act in a routine
to interfere in the affairs of government. Lula will leave the role
of the executive to take over the “board” of the government, a
fictional but weighty position.
Especially in the general direction of the country’s future and
the arbitration of disputes and conflicts.
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 8
Special edition
Challenges: economic and political agendas and pending issues
The new president will have to focus on an intense political and
economic agenda at the beginning of the government in 2011.
Even during the transition period, some themes can be defined
by Lula along with the President-elect, such as:
Purchase of new fighters for the Air Force (FX2). The government
wants the French Rafale fighter. The Air Force prefers the Swedish Gripen;
Extradition of Cesare Battisti, convicted in Italy for terrorism and
approved by the Supreme Court, pending final decision by the
government;
National Program for Human Rights, whose final text has caused
much controversy and may have its scope reduced. The most
contentious issue is the installation of the Truth Commission to
aprove crimes against human rights during the military regime;
Choose the 11th minister of the Supreme Court, with the vacancy left by STF Eros Grau. Cesar Asfor from STJ is a favorite;
Adoption of 19 provisional meausures that are pending vote in
Congress, and pending projects like the Union Budget for 2011
and completion of the vote on the pre-salt.
Besides these pressing issues, there are short and medium term
isssues to consider:
Political Challenges
Form a political base modeled after the coalition govern-
ment;
Reconcile the 11 parties of the allied base, with the PT and
the PMDB as protagonists;
Develop and prepare a legislative agenda for 2011 that includes topics such as the new regulatory framework for the mining
and fertilizer areas, renewal of concessions in the electricity sector,
pension reform, tax reform, among others.
Construct the election of the presidency of the Congress;
Appease the defeated and try to establish a minimal relationship
with the opposition.
Macro-Economic Challenges:
Mount a credible economic team;
Clarify the tax issue with regard to the intention of maintaining
the current status or extending the primary surplus, or even se-
eking a nominal surplus;
Tackle the currency issue in order to attempt to reconcile the
devaluation of the real with the maintenance of high reserves;
Expand exports with the Eximbank;
Set the Welfare Reform for entrants into the labor market; Signalize positive expectations about the current growth momentum.
The medium-term economic challenges should be divided into
macro and micro.
Economic Challenges (Micro)
Deal with pending issues on the legislative-regulatory areas (mining, credit cards, competition, regulatory agencies, communication and internet, pre-salt, etc.);
Resume investment programs in infrastructure aimed at 2014
FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games;
Other themes can also be considered with priority:
Addressing the shortage of manpower;
Stimulating innovation programs;
Reduce cost of banking spread.
As seen, the new government will face a considerable amount of
challenges. However, the biggest challenge of all will be to govern
without the popular support that Lula had. Particularly, the second
term.
More than a popular president, Lula managed to gather around
him an extraordinary alliance that included most of the population
who supported his government, and significant sectors of the business, financial system, and also workers and social movements.
Without a charismatic president such as Lula, the new government will have a huge challenge in maintaining the social and political unity of its coalition. To do this, it will have to work har well to
meet the expectations of its allies, strengthen itself to destabilize
the opposition and also maintain high popularity.
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 9
Special edition
Voting by state
States
Acre
DILMA ROUSSEFF
1st round 2nd round
23.92%
30.32%
JOSÉ SERRA
1st round 2nd round
52.13%
69.68%
50.92%
53.64%
36.46%
46.36%
47.38%
62.66%
21.36%
37.34%
Amazonas
64.98%
80.57%
8.47%
19.43%
Bahia
62.61%
70.85%
20.98%
29.15%
Ceará
66.30%
77.35%
16.36%
22.65%
Distrito Federal
31.74%
52.81%
24.30%
47.19%
Espírito Santo
37.25%
49.17%
35.44%
50.83%
Goiás
42.23%
49.25%
39.48%
50.75%
Maranhão
70.65%
79.09%
15.09%
20.91%
Mato Grosso
42.94%
48.89%
44.16%
51.11%
Mato Grosso do Sul
39.86%
44.87%
42.35%
55.13%
Minas Gerais
46.98%
58.45%
30.76%
41.55%
Pará
47.93%
53.20%
37.69%
46.80%
Paraíba
53.21%
61.55%
28.43%
38.45%
Paraná
38.94%
44.56%
43.94%
55.44%
61.74%
75.65%
17.37%
24.35%
67.09%
69.98%
20.93%
30.02%
43.76%
60.48%
22.53%
39.52%
51.76%
59.54%
28.14%
40.46%
46.95%
49.06%
40.59%
50.94%
40.73%
47.37%
45.40%
52.63%
28.72%
33.44%
51.03%
66.56%
38.71%
43.39%
45.77%
56.61%
37.31%
45.95%
40.66%
54.05%
47.67%
53.56%
38.05%
46.44%
50.98%
58.88%
27.99%
41.12%
Alagoas
Amapá
Pernambuco
Piauí
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Rondônia
Roraima
Santa Catarina
São Paulo
Sergipe
Tocantins
Where Dilma beat Serra
1st ROUND
Dilma got more votes
than Serra in 19 states
2nd ROUND
Dilma got more votes
than Serra in 16 states
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 10
Special edition
Foto: globo.com
The PSDB after the elections
J
osé Serra lost the Presidential race for the second time and the
PSDB was defeated in the third consecutive presidential election for the Workers Party - PT (2002, 2006 and 2010).
The great nemesis of toucans (PSDB) is president Lula, who defeated Serra (2002) and Geraldo Alckmin (2006), and was largely
responsible for building the candidacy of Dilma Rousseff (PT).
However, the toucans also had gains in the elections this year.
While the group elected for the House of Representatives has decreased from 65 (2006) to 53 (2010) and in the Senate the number has
remained the same from 2006, the party did well in state disputes.
With the victories of Marconi Perillo (Goias), Anchieta Júnior
(Roraima), Teotônio Vilela Filho (Alagoas), Simão Jatene (Pará), Geraldo Alckmin (Sao Paulo), Antônio Anastasia (Minas Gerais), Beto
Richa (Parana) and Siqueira Campos (Tocantins), the PSDB has doubled the number of governors elected in 2006.
The victory in eight states, besides making the PSDB the party
with most elected governors, will give PSDB rule over 47.47% of the
national electorate. Moreover, the party has a natural candidate for
2014: the former governor of Minas Gerais and Senator-elect Aécio
Neves. However, there are many challenges ahead: since the arrival of President Lula to power in 2002, the PSDB did not have
an effective role as opposition party.
By not taking a clear political strategy, as the PT had during
the FHC’s government, the PSDB lost their way and came to
depend on the emergence of scandals to wear down the government.
In addition to seeking a political message for the next four
years, Aécio has to face the command of the party in São Paulo.
Despite the wear with the defeats of Serra and Alckmin in the
last three elections, the command of the party machine will not
be easily delivered.
Thus, Aécio Neves needs to assert his great ability to articulate, while making the PSDB’s São Paulo wing work in his favor
in 2014, already thinking about building majority that allows it
to take control of the party
For his moderate and unifying profile, the trend is that Aécio does not assume a posture of vehement opposition to the
government. He should opt for rapprochement with parliamentarians of the PSB, PDT, and PP (parties that are allied base) in
the Senate, seeking the presidential succession in 2014.
Apparently, the strategy of Aécio is to bring to his side
parties that were under the Lula government in recent years,
especially after 2012, in order to weaken Dilma’s base.
Opposition will control
nearly 60% of GDP
Dilma Rousseff (PT) has chosen the tax reform as one
of the priority topics for her future government. However,
since the PSDB and DEM will rule ten states, there may be
additional obstacles ahead that will require even more capacity of political articulation.
PSDB will rule Goiás, Roraima, Alagoas, Pará, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Tocantins, Paraná, and the Democrats,
Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Norte.
Together, these states have 59.41% of the national
GDP, which can be an impediment to reform.
Besides a historical opposition from governors to the
tax changes the fact that major part of GDP is in the hands
of opposition may be a complicating factor.
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 11
Special edition
Where Dilma won by the highest margin, which can be explained by the strength of the federal government’s social programs
(Bolsa Familia, Luz para Todos, etc.) in the region. She got 66.8%
of valid votes against 33.19% for Serra (PSDB). In the first round,
Dilma got 59% and Serra 24.6%. As in the North, whoever wins
the Northeast also wins in the country - Collor (1989), FHC (1994
and 1998) and Lula (2002 and 2006).
1ST ROUND
1989
1994
1998
2002
2006
Collor:
50.5%
Lula:
18.7%
Collor:
70.5%
Lula:
29.5%
FHC:
58.9%
Lula:
25.5%
FHC:
57.6%
Lula:
26.5%
-
-
-
-
Lula:
44.4%
Serra:
22.7%
Lula:
58.2%
Serra:
41.8%
Lula:
56.1%
Alckmin:
36.4%
Lula:
65.6%
Alckmin:
34.4%
2010
Dilma:
Serra:
41.9%
2ND ROUND
1ST ROUND
2ND ROUND
Northeast
1ST ROUND
The winner was Dilma Roussef (PT). She got 52.34% of valid votes against 47.65% for José Serra (PSDB). In the first round, Lula’s
candidate also beat Serra (41.9% x 34.8%). Just as every election
since Brazil’s return to democracy, the North follows the national
trend. In 1989 Collor won the region in the first and second rounds.
In 1994 and 1998, FHC won and in 2002 and 2006, Lula won.
2ND ROUND
North
2ND ROUND
1ST ROUND
Regional evaluation of the presidential election
Dilma:
52.34%
1989
Collor:
38.6%
Lula:
22.8%
Collor:
55.7%
Lula:
44.3%
Marina:
34.8%
Serra:
47.65%
1994
FHC:
57.6%
Lula:
30.3%
1998
FHC:
47.7%
Lula:
31.6%
-
-
-
-
Dilma:
59%
Dilma:
66.80%
20.7%
2010
Serra:
24.6%
2002
Lula:
45.9%
Serra:
19.8%
Lula:
61.5%
Serra:
38.5%
2006
Lula:
66.8%
Alckmin:
26.1%
Lula:
77.1%
Alckmin:
22.9%
Marina:
10.9%
Serra:
33.19%
Political Scenarios
José Serra (PSDB) won 51.04% of the votes and surpassed Dilma Rousseff (PT), who won 48.95%. In the first round, Dilma had
39.1% and 37.5% went to Serra. With the exception of the second
round this year and first of 2006, when Lula beat Alckmin, in all
other elections the candidate who won the race for president was
also victorious in the region.
2ND ROUND
Special edition
1989
Collor:
25,8%
Lula:
17,8%
Collor:
50,5%
Lula:
49,5%
1ST ROUND
1994
1998
2002
2006
FHC:
56,1%
Lula:
25,6%
FHC:
55,3%
Lula:
31,2%
-
-
-
-
Lula:
46,5%
Serra:
22,7%
Lula:
63,0%
Serra:
37,0%
Lula:
43,3%
Alckmin:
45,2%
Lula:
56,9%
Alckmin:
43,1%
2010
Dilma:
Serra:
41.2%
1989
Collor:
23.4%
Lula: 8.1%
Collor:
48.3%
Lula:
51.7%
Marina:
32.2%
Dilma:
53.51%
24.9%
Serra:
46.48%
1994
1998
2002
2006
FHC:
41.3%
Lula:
28.2%
FHC:
49.2%
Lula:
38.8%
-
-
-
-
Lula:
49.4%
Serra:
28.5%
Lula:
58.8%
Serra:
41.2%
Lula:
34.9%
Alckmin:
54.9%
Lula:
46.5%
Alckmin:
53.5%
2010
Dilma:
Serra:
41.5%
2ND ROUND
1ST ROUND
2ND ROUND
MIDWEST
1ST ROUND
Only region that José Serra (PSDB) surpassed Dilma Rousseff
(PT) in the first (43.3% vs. 41.5%) and second round (54.33% vs.
45.67%). Serra beat Dilma in Paraná (55.44% vs. 44.56%), Santa
Catarina (56.61% vs. 43.39%) and Rio Grande do Sul (50.94% vs.
49.06%). In the region, in three of the six presidential elections,
the losing candidate won in the South (Lula in 1989, Alckmin and
Serra in 2006 and 2010). This can be explained by the region’s more
critical behavior in relation to the federal government.
2ND ROUND
SOUTH
2ND ROUND
1ST ROUND
The bet on the strength of the PSDB party in São Paulo and Aécio Neves in Minas Gerais to leverage José Serra’s campaign had no
effect. In the region, Dilma Rousseff (PT) won 53.51% of the votes
against 46.48% of José Serra (PSDB). In the first round, the PT won
41.2% against 32.2% of the toucans. Dilma won in Minas Gerais
(58.45% vs. 41.55%) and Rio de Janeiro (60.48% vs. 39.52%) and
Serra was victorious in São Paulo (54.05% vs. 45.95%). In this region, only in the first round of 2006, when Lula defeated Alckmin,
the victorious candidate in the presidential election did not win
the region.
1ST ROUND
SOUTHEAST
1ST ROUND
2ND ROUND
Nº 155 12
Marina:
43.3%
Dilma:
45.67%
13.7%
Serra:
54.33%
1989
1994
1998
2002
2006
Collor:
43.0%
Lula:
16.4%
Collor:
63.2%
Lula:
36.8%
FHC:
60.4%
Lula:
24.6%
FHC:
61.2%
Lula:
22.1%
-
-
-
-
Lula:
43.1%
Serra:
26.2%
Lula:
57.3%
Serra:
42.7%
Lula:
38.5%
Alckmin:
51.6%
Lula:
52.4%
Alckmin:
47.6%
Dilma:
39.1%
Dilma:
48.95%
2010
Serra:
37.5%
Marina:
21.9%
Serra:
51.04%
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 13
Special edition
Dilma will have majority in Congress
House
Current
Seats
Future
composition
PT
79
88
PMDB
90
79
PR
41
41
PP
40
41
PSB
27
34
PDT
23
28
PTB
22
20
PSC
16
17
PCdoB
12
15
PRB
7
8
Party
Opposition
PPS
15
12
PSDB
59
53
DEM
56
43
PSOL
3
3
Independents
PV
14
16
PMN
3
4
PT do B
1
3
PRTB
2
PRP
2
PHS
3
2
PTC
1
1
PSL
1
Independents
1
lie
d
61 Base
Al
Al
lie
d
37 Bas
1
e
Opp
ositi
on
111
31
DILMA’S SUPPORT
BASE IN THE SENATE
po
siti
19 on
Independents
Lula’s allied base in Congress is of 357 deputies and
50 senators. The president‐elect Dilma Rousseff will
have a more comfortable situation, especially in the Senate: 371 votes in the House and 61 in the Senate.
The opposition shrinks and therefore has less power
to create problems for Dilma. It goes from 133 to 111
deputies and 30 senators to 19. Under the current administration, for example, the PSDB and DEM were strong
enough to create any CPI in the Senate. After all, with
27 signatures it is possible to install a parliamentary
commission of inquiry. With only 19 representatives,
the opposition will need to have the support of defectors from the governing coalition.
Dilma will also have a more favorable situation
compared to President Lula to approve proposed constitutional amendments (PEC), in particular, in the Senate. To approve a PEC, 49 votes are required.
There are other ingredients involved in the Congress that merit consideration. It is the first time since
the democratization that the PMDB participates in a
winning ticket and has the post of vice president. This
new situation may increase the internal unity of the
party. Marked by division and even though it was fundamental to good governance for the administrations
of Itamar, FHC and Lula, the legislative support of the
PMDB has always been around 60%.
The fidelity of the parties may also be higher. That’s
because the Supreme Court and the Superior Electoral
Court understood that the term belongs to the party
and not the elected official. This means that if a party
wants to close a matter, the representative that disobeys and votes differently can lose their mandate. In
crucial votes, the party power will be fundamental. As
a consequence of party fidelity, the other benches (ruralist, for example) lose power.
It is worth noting that big parties in the House became smaller and smaller parties grew. The result was
that medium parties, that have between 6 and 51 representatives add up to 275, or 53.6% of the House.
It was the party group that grew the most. Today they
have 197 seats. This greater equilibrium will result in
participation of these parties in the Dilma government,
and as a result, smaller space for the PT.
In Lula’s first term, the PT was hegemonic. In the
second, a majority. Now the PT will have to give up
more space to allies.
Op
DILMA’S SUPPORT
BASE IN THE HOUSE
House
Current
Seats
Future
composition
PMDB
17
21
PT
8
14
PTB
7
6
PP
1
5
PDT
6
4
PR
4
4
PSB
2
3
PCdoB
1
2
PRB
2
1
PSC
1
1
Sem partido
1
0
Party
Opposition
PSDB
16
10
DEM
13
6
PSOL
1
2
PPS
0
1
Independents
PV
1
0
PMN
0
1
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 Exclusively for Arko clients
14
Special edition
Dilma’s possible ministers
ALDO REBELO
Reelected congressman. He was Minister of Political Coordination under President Lula and President of
the House of Representatives. His area of expertise is foreign affairs and national defense. He is a possibility for the Ministry of Defense. He was rapporteur of the proposed reform of the Forestry Code, and his
opinion favored entrepreneurs in agribusiness.
ALEXANDRE TOMBINI
Director of Standards and Financial System Organization of the Central Bank (CB). He is a carrier officer of
the institution and participated in the negotiations of the Brazilian programs with the IMF (International
Monetary Fund), besides having occupied the Boards of International Affairs and Special Studies. On some
occasions he substituted President Henrique Meirelles. Considered a strong name to preside the CB.
ALOIZIO MERCADANTE
He was national vice president of the PT and International Relations Secretary of the party. He coordinated
the presidential campaigns of Lula in 1989 and 2002. Ran for vice president in 1994. He served two terms
as congressman. In 2002, he was elected senator with the most votes in the history of the country (more
than 10 million). He disputed the government of São Paulo in 2006 and 2010, coming in second on both
occasions. He is currently vice president of the Mercosur Parliament (Parlasur). He is a possibility for the
Ministry of Science and Technology or Planning.
Antonio Palocci
Was a city counselor and was mayor of Ribeirão Preto for two terms, and state and federal representative.
Presided the Workers’ Party (PT) in São Paulo. In 2002, he resigned as mayor of Ribeirão Preto to be a coordinator of the program of the government of candidate Lula. Palocci led the transition team that year and
was named finance minister. His name is considered for the Civil House. Some sections of the PT defend his
name to the Ministry of Health, even though Palocci himself does not like this idea.
CÂNDIDO VACCAREZZA
Was elected federal representative in the elections this year. He is the leader of the Lula government in the
House. Campaigns for presidency of the House of Representatives, but is also a possibility for the Ministry
of Health.
Political Scenarios
15
Special edition
CELSO AMORIM
Diplomat, is Minister of Foreign Relations for the second time. Was secretary general of Itamaraty in
the Itamar Franco administration. In the FHC government he was head of Brazil’s Permanent Mission to
the United Nations. Was also chief of the Brazilian mission to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Was
invited to be minister by President Lula when he was Brazilian ambassador in London. Wants to stay at
his current position.
EDISON LOBÃO
Was reelected senator for the third time. Was also governor of Maranhão and minister of Mines and Energy
for the Lula government. May return to his position, but is also rumored to be president of the Senate.
FERNANDO HADDAD
Was cabinet chief of the Municipal Secretariat of Finances and Economic Development of São Paulo, in the
Marta Suplicy administration, special advisor to the Ministry of Planning, Budget and Management and
executive secretary of the Ministry of Education. Took over the Ministry of Education after Tarso Genro left
to be president of the PT. May stay at current position.
FERNANDO PIMENTEL
Was Mayor of Belo Horizonte (2002-2008). Was municipal secretary of Government, Planning and General
Coordination, during Célio de Castro’s administration. Was also Municipal Secretary of Finance in the Patrus Ananias administration. Was one of the main articulators of the Participative Budget of Belo Horizonte. His administration as mayor of the capital of Minas had an approval rating above 80%. He is rumored
to be future Minister of Cities.
FRANKLIN MARTINS
Minister of Social Communication. As a journalist he worked at the Jornal do Brasil, Rede Globo, on Jornal
Nacional and Jornal da Globo. Later, he also worked for the Bandeirantes Network where he did political
commentary for the news programs. In the government, Franklin Martins has the function of press secretary, official spokesperson and of the project of a national public TV network. Rumored to be future Minister
of Communications.
GILBERTO CARVALHO
Head of Lula’s cabinet, considered his right hand man. Held posts in the municipal prefecture of Santo
André -SP. Has been rumored to be possible president of the Worker’s Party (PT). Can be general secretary
of the Presidency.
Political Scenarios
16
Special edition
GILES C. AZEVEDO
Geologist. Is a faithful assistant to Dilma Rousseff, was chief of her cabinet. Giles met Dilma in 1993, when
both participated in the government of Alceu Collares (PDT) in Rio Grande do Sul. Rumored to be Dilma’s
chief of staff.
GUIDO MANTEGA
Is the Minister of Finance of the Lula administration. Was an advisor to Paul Singer in the Municipal Secretariat of Planing of São Paulo during the Luiza Erudina administration (1989-1992). From 1993, worked as
Lula’s economic advisor. In 2002, was one of the coordinators of the economic program. When Lula took
office, took over the Ministry of Planning, Budget and Management, later transferred to President of the
BNDES, after Carlos Lessa resigned. Mantega wants to remain at the Ministry of Finance.
HENRIQUE MEIRELLES
President of the Central Bank during the Lula administration. One year before, in 2002, he was elected
federal representative for the PSDB in Goiás. Is currently affiliated with the PMDB. Presided over the Bank
of Boston. His administration at the Central Bank has been criticized for keeping basic interest rates that
are among the highest in the world, aside from allowing the increase in value of the real, which hinders
exporters. On the other hand, has been praised for keeping inflation under control. May remain at the CB,
but is also rumored for an infrastructure ministry (Transportation, Mines and Energy, for example).
IZABELLA TEIXEIRA
Minister of the Environment, Izabella was executive secretary of the ministry under Carlos Minc. Employee
of the Ibama since 1984, had the top post of the institute. Is a specialist in the evaluation of environmental
strategy. Was also subsecretary for the Environment of the Secretariat of Rio de Janeiro. May remain at
current post.
José Eduardo Cardozo
Second mandate as a federal representative and secretary-general of the Workers Party since 2008. Teacher of Administrative Law in PUC University. José Eduardo Cardozo has also held position as councilman in
São Paulo for two mandates, when he presided the Municipal Assembly. Possible Minister of Justice.
JOSÉ EDUARDO DUTRA
Presided over the Miners´ Union in Sergipe (Sindimina) and was national director of the Workers Union
(CUT). In 1994 was elected Senator in Sergipe. Presided over Petrobras between 2003 and 2005, and Petrobras Distribution between 2007 an 2009, position he left to become national president of PT. Will not
occupy a Ministry, but will work to keep the party unity around Dilma Rousseff.
Political Scenarios
17
Special edition
JOSÉ GOMES TEMPORÃO
Current Minister of Health, in the PMDB quota of the House. Wishes to stay at current position, but may
be replaced. Because he heads a ministry with a big budget, there may be a dispute between the PT and
PMDB for the position.
LUCIANO COUTINHO
Doctorate in Economy from the University of Cornell. Specialist in industrial and international economy.
Was Executive Secretary of the Ministry of Science and Technology in the Sarney government participating
in the ministry and the conception of policies for complex areas such as biotechnology, information technology, chemistry, precision mechanics and new materials. Until he took over as president of the BNDES he
was a partner at LCA Consultants. Rumored to be Minister of Finance. MIRIAM BELCHIOR
Executive secretary of the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) and acting head of the Civil House since
the fall of Erenice Guerra. Participated in the 2002 Transition Team. Miriam is also a friend of Gilberto
Carvalho, Lula’s chief of staff. The two worked as secretaries in Santo Andre in the ABC Paulista, in
the administration of Celso Daniel. He served as special adviser to the Presidency of the Republic be
called up in 2003 by the then chief of staff, Jose Dirceu, to join the ministry. Rumored for the Ministry
of Planning.
MOREIRA FRANCO
He was mayor of Niteroi, congressman and former governor of Rio de Janeiro. Was president of the Ulysses
Guimaraes Foundation. Is very close to the vice president-elect, Michel Temer (PMDB). He left the vice presidency of the Lotteries Fund and CEF to enter the Dilma campaign. Moreira Franco is seen as a wildcard,
and can occupy any position in the Dilma government. May be a minister.
NELSON BARBOSA
Secretary of Economic Monitoring of the Ministry of Finance. And Ph.D. in Economics from the New School
for Social Research (New York). He was also Deputy Secretary of Macroeconomic Policy and Situation
Analysis of the Ministry of Finance, Advisor to the Presidency of the BNDES and Deputy Chief Economic
Advisor of the Ministry of Planning, Budget and Management. Rumored for the presidency of BNDES.
PAULO BERNARDO
Congressman for three terms. He was also secretary of the Treasury of the State of Mato Grosso do Sul
and Secretary of Finance of the municipality of Londrina. Is currently the Minister of Planning and Budget
of the Lula government. Although there is not a defined ministry, he is practically a certainty for the next
government.
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 18
Special edition
RODRIGO ROLLEMBERG
Was a district representative, district secretary of tourism, federal secretary of science and technology in
Lula’s government and congressman. Even though elected senator in the 2010’s election, he could become
a minister in Dilma’s future government.
WAGNER ROSSI
Minister of Agriculture. He has over 30 years dedicated to the agricultural sector. Held important positions
in state and federal government, most recently as president of the National Supply Company (Conab). He
has been secretary of several secretariats of the Government of São Paulo (Transportion, Infrastructure, Roads, Education, Sport and Tourism), and President of the Dock Company of São Paulo (Codesp). He belongs
to Michel Temer’s quota of ministers and should remain in the current post.
Staff
Murillo de Aragão
Editor and Publisher
Cristiano Noronha
Executive Editor
Murillo de Aragão, Thiago de Aragão,
Cristiano Noronha e Carlos Eduardo Bellini
Geraldo Moura e Carlos Eduardo Bellini
Assistant Editors
Editorial Board
Diagramming
Fernanda Dias
Responsable Journalist
Murillo de Aragão 8255-DF
Arko Advice’s Political Scenarios is a publication
edited by Arko Advice Co. since 1993.
SHIS – QI 26 – Chácara 18 – Lago Sul – 71670-740 – Brasília – DF
Phone: (61) 3248.4968 / Fax: (61) 3248.4399 / e-mail: [email protected] / www.arkoadvice.com.br
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 19
Special edition
PT and PMDB fighting for
presidencies of House and Senate
Traditionally, the party with
the largest number of members
in the House and the Senate
elects the president of each
House. This tradition cannot be
followed due to an agreement
between the parties of the base
or when there is no agreement
between the allies.
In 2006, for example, the
PMDB elected 89 representatives and the PT, 83. However,
the party gave up on fighting for
the presidency and supported
the election of Arlindo Chinaglia
(PT). The agreement was that in
the next term (2009-2010) the PT
would support Michel Temer, as
indeed occurred. Before, in 2005,
the climate was completely dete-
riorated and Severino Cavalcanti
(PP-PE) defeated Luiz Eduardo
Greenhalgh (PT-SP), handing President Lula one of the biggest po-
litical defeats of his government.
Involved in corruption scandals,
he was obligated to leave office
and was replaced by Aldo Rebelo
(PCdoB-SP).
This year, the PT elected the
largest bench in the House, 88
seats. Therefore, the party gives
itself the right to follow Michel
Temer’s post. The PMDB does
not want to give the position
up and wants Henrique Eduardo
Alves (RN). The PT has three alternatives: Candido Vaccarezza
(SP), Marco Maia (RS) and Arlindo Chinaglia (SP).
House of Representatives - Potential House Presidents
ARLINDO CHINAGLIA (PT-SP):
Reelected for a fifth term as a federal representative. From São Paulo and a doctor. Graduated in Medicine from
UnB, with a specialization in Public Health at USP. Worked at INAMPS São Paulo and the Public Servant State Hospital. During Marta Suplicy’s administration, held the post of Secretary of Implementation of Subprefectures in
the Government of the city of São Paulo, from 2001-2002. Was president of the House (2007-2008).
CÂNDIDO VACCAREZZA (PT-SP):
Reelected for second term as federal representative. Is leader of Lula government in the House. Wishes to be
president of the House in 2011-2012.
HENRIQUE EDUARDO ALVES (PMDB-RN):
Is in his tenth consecutive term as a federal representative. Is one of the main owners of the Cabugi Communication System, of Globo TV. He is the leader of the PMDB in the House and a strong candidate to follow Michel
Temer as president.
MARCO MAIA (PT-RS):
Reelected for his third term as federal representative. Was secretary of Administration for the Olivio Dutra (PT)
government in Rio Grande do Sul and president of Trensurb (Urban Train Company in Porto Alegre). Was also in
the CPI “Apagão Aéreo”. Is current vice-president of the House. His name is rumored to follow Michel Temer as
president.
Political Scenarios
20
Special edition
Federal Senate - Potential Senate Presidents
EDISON LOBÃO (PMDB-MA):
Was elected senator for the third time. He was also governor of Maranhão and Minister of Mines and Energy of
the Lula government. He is one of the names of the PMDB which could preside the Senate
EUNÍCIO OLIVEIRA (PMDB-CE):
He was Congressman for three terms. During Lula’s government, was communications minister and leader of the
PMDB in the House of Representatives. In elections this year, was elected senator. His name is also speculated to
preside the Senate.
GARIBALDI ALVES FILHO (PMDB-RN):
Reelected for a third term as senator. Was mayor of Natal and governor of Rio Grande do Norte. He was President
of the Senate and is one of the names mentioned to head the Senate
JORGE VIANA (PT-AC):
Was mayor of Rio Branco and governor of Acre for two terms. In this election he was elected senator. He is one of
the PT names to preside the Senate. He is also considered for the Ministry of Defense.
JOSÉ PIMENTEL (PT-CE):
He was Congressman for four consecutive terms and the welfare minister under Lula. He was elected senator in
the elections this year. His name is speculated to preside the Senate.
RENAN CALHEIROS (PMDB-AL):
Reelected for a third term as senator. He was also justice minister under FHC. Presided over the Senate during the
Lula government, having resigned. He is considered to return to the command of the Senate.
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 21
Special edition
Winners
LOSERS
LULA: The big winner. Leaves the Presidential Palace
with a positive rating above 80% and elected his successor
(Rousseff). He is largely responsible for the third consecutive
victory of the PT over the PSDB (2002, 2006 and 2010).
JOSE SERRA: Is obviously the biggest loser. It is the second time that he loses a presidential election (2002 and
2010).Went to the second round due more to Marina’s votes than his own merits. Lost the position of natural candidate for the PSDB in 2014 to Aécio Neves.
Dilma Rousseff: With the support of President Lula, won
the presidential election. Had never run for any elective office.
Enters history as the first woman elected to the presidency.
MICHEL TEMER: The future vice president of the republic
had a decisive role in the composition of the PT-PMDB alliance. Despite the historical division of the PMDB, he managed
to drive inside of the party since the end of the military regime. Now, in addition to keeping true to the PMDB in the
government’s agenda, he will be instrumental in choosing
the new ministry.
MARINA SILVA: The candidate’s votes were surprising in
the first round (19,600,000 votes) and therefore her support
has been hotly contested by the PT and PSDB. Preferred to
stay neutral. Dilma and Serra arranged to take on commitments with the environmental agenda. Validated as third
candidate for the presidential election of 2014.
AÉCIO NEVES: Beat Hélio Costa (PMDB) and Patrus Ananias (PT) for governor and vice that had the support of President Lula. Besides winning the race for the Senate, was instrumental in the election of former President Itamar Franco
(PPS), preventing the victory of Fernando Pimentel (PT). Will
be instrumental in rebuilding the PSDB and is the main name
of his party for 2014.
EDUARDO CAMPOS: The re-elected governor of Pernambuco won a landslide victory over Jarbas Vasconcellos
(PMDB) in his state. Previously, he was responsible for bringing the PSB to support Dilma, instead of betting on their
own candidate, Ciro Gomes.
CESAR MAIA: The former mayor of Rio de Janeiro was
not able to be elected senator and his leadership has done
little for Serra in his state. The candidacy for governor of
Fernando Gabeira (PV) also did not take off. For those who
have longed for the dispute for the Planalto Palace, Cesar
Maia does not have the same clout of years ago.
ARTHUR VIRGÍLIO: Strong opposition name in the Senate during the Lula government, failed to win reelection.
Lost space in the PSDB and national politics. Arthur Virgilio
is a possible name for mayor of Manaus in 2012.
MARCO MACIEL: Former vice- president for the eight
years of Cardoso’s government suffered an emblematic defeat. Maciel failed to be reelected senator, out of office
for the first time in recent decades. Another relevant DEM
leader who was defeated.
HÉLIO COSTA: One of the few candidates supported
by President Lula, who was defeated. Former Minister of
Communications again lost the race for the government of
Minas Gerais.
JARBAS VASCONCELLOS: Senator and former governor
of Pernambuco had one of the most humiliating defeats in
dispute by the government of Pernambuco. Doubly lost because he backed José Serra against the orientation of the
PMDB, which supported Dilma.
Elections 2010
ELECTION FOR GOVERNOR
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 23
Special edition
PSDB elects largest number of governors
Party
No. of current governors
Elected in the 1st
round
Elected in the 2st
round
TOTAL
PMDB
9
4
1
5
PSDB
6
4
4
8
DEM
0
2
-
2
PT
4
4
1
5
PDT
0
0
-
0
PSB
4
3
3
6
PP
2
0
-
0
PMN
1
1
-
1
PPS
1
0
-
0
PTB
PSC
0
0
0
0
-
0
0
Total
27
18
9
27
I
n the second round, 8 states and the Federal District elected their governors. The PSDB, who was in the
second round in 5 states, won
in 4. With this result it became
the party with the most wins
in state elections, electing 8
governors in all (Alagoas, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Pará, Paraná,
Roraima, São Paulo and Tocantins). Next comes the PSB who
won in three second round races (Amapá, Paraíba and Piauí)
and another three in the first
round (Ceará, Espírito Santo
and Pernambuco). The PT and
PMDB, who won only one race
in the second round, ended
up tied with five state governments each (PT - Acre, Bahia,
Federal District, Rio Grande do
Sul and Sergipe; PMDB - Mato
Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul,
Maranhão, Rio de Janeiro and
Rondônia).
The DEM elected two governors (in Santa Catarina and
Rio Grande do Norte), both in
the first round. The PMN elected the governor of Amazonas
in the first round.
1998
2002
2006
2010
Reelection
19
15
19
20
Reelected
12
10
13
13
%
63.15
66.66
72.22
65
13 of 20 governors were reelected; 10 in the first round and 3 in the second
O
f the 20 governors that
ran for reelection, 13
won. Of these, 10 were
reelected in the first round.
In 2010, the reelection index
(65%) was the second lowest
since 1998 (first election where reelection in the Executive
was permitted), when this percentage was 63.1%.
The governors that were
reelected are Teotônio Vilela Filho (Alagoas), Omar Aziz
(Amazonas), Jaques Wagner
(Bahia), Cid Gomes (Ceará),
Roseana Sarney (Maranhão),
Silval Barbosa (Mato Grosso),
André Pucinelli (Mato Grosso
do Sul), Antonio Anastasia (Minas Gerais), Eduardo campos
(Pernambuco), Wilson Martins
(Piauí), Sérgio Cabral (Rio de
Janeiro), Anchieta Júnior (Roraima) and Marcelo Déda (Ser-
gipe). Those defeated were Pedro Paulo (Amapá), Ana Júlia
(Pará), José Maranhão (Paraíba), Iberê Ferreira (Rio Grande
do Norte), Yeda Crusius (Rio
Grande do Sul), João Cahulla
(Rondônia) and Carlos Gaguim
(Tocantins).
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 24
Special edition
The result in the state disputes
AMAPÁ
RORAIMA
PARÁ
Anchieta (PSDB)
Camilo Capiberibe (PSB)
Neudo Campos (PP)
Lucas Barreto (PTB)
53.77%
50.41%
Wilson Martins (PSB)
55.74%
58.93%
Ana Júlia (PT)
46.23%
49.59%
AMAZONAS
PIAUÍ
Simão Jatene (PSDB)
Silvio Mendes (PSDB)
44.26%
41.07%
Omar Aziz (PMN)
63.86%
CEARÁ
MARANHÃO
Cid Gomes (PSB)
Roseana (PMDB)
61.27%
50.08%
RIO GRANDE DO NORTE
Rosalba Ciarlini (DEM)
52.46%
ACRE
Tião Viana (PT)
50.44%
PARAÍBA
Ricardo Coutinho (PSB)
53.70%
José Maranhão (PMDB)
46.30%
PERNAMBUCO
Eduardo Campos (PSB)
RONDÔNIA
82.84%
Confúcio Moura (PMDB)
58.68%
ALAGOAS
João Calula (PPS)
41.32%
Teotônio Vilela (PSDB)
52.74%
MATO GROSSO
Sinval Barbosa (PMDB)
Ronaldo Lessa (PDT)
TOCANTINS
51.21%
47.26%
Siqueira Campos (PSDB)
50.52%
SERGIPE
Marcelo Déda (PT)
52.08%
MATO GROSSO DO SUL
André Puccinelli (PMDB)
BAHIA
56%
Jaques Wagner (PT)
63.83%
PARANÁ
Beto Richa (PSDB)
MINAS GERAIS
52.44%
Antonio Anastasia (PSDB)
62.72%
SANTA CATARINA
Raimundo Colombo (DEM)
ESPIRITO SANTO
52.72%
Renato Casagrande (PSB)
82.30%
GOIÁS
Marconi Perillo (PSDB) - 52.99%
Iris Rezende (PMDB) - 47.01%
RIO GRANDE DO SUL
Tarso Genro (PT)
54.35%
SÃO PAULO
RIO DE JANEIRO
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB)
Sérgio Cabral (PMDB)
50.63%
66.08%
DISTRITO FEDERAL
Agnelo Queiroz (PT) - 66.10%
Weslian Roriz (PSC) - 33.90%
1st round
2nd round
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 25
Special edition
Where Dilma’s allies won
RORAIMA
Anchieta Júnior (PSDB)
AMAPÁ
PARÁ
Simão Jatene (PSDB)
PIAUÍ
Wilson Martins (PSB)
AMAZONAS
Omar Aziz (PMN)
CEARÁ
Cid Gomes (PSB)
MARANHÃO
Roseana (PMDB)
RIO GRANDE DO NORTE
ACRE
Tião Viana (PT)
PARAÍBA
Ricardo Coutinho (PSB)
PERNAMBUCO
RONDÔNIA
Confúcio Moura (PMDB)
ALAGOAS
Teotônio Vilela (PSDB)
MATO GROSSO
Silval Barbosa (PMDB)
TOCANTINS
SERGIPE
Marcelo Déda (PT)
MATO GROSSO DO SUL
BAHIA
Jaques Wagner (PT)
PARANÁ
Beto Richa (PSDB)
MINAS GERAIS
SANTA CATARINA
GOIÁS
Marconi Perillo (PSDB)
ESPIRITO SANTO
RIO GRANDE DO SUL
Tarso Genro (PT)
SÃO PAULO
RIO DE JANEIRO
DISTRITO FEDERAL
Agnelo Queiroz (PT)
Dilma Rousseff (PT)
José Serra (PSDB)
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 26
Special edition
Who was elected in the first round
Midwest
SOUTH
SOUTHEAST
Northeast
North
Coalition
PRB-PP-PDT-PT-PTB-PTN-PR-PSDC-PHSPTC-PSB-PV-PRP-PSOL-PC do B
PRB-PP-PTB-PMDB-PTN-PSC-DEM-PRTBPHS-PMN-PTC-PRP-PC do B
PRB-PTB-PTN-PSC-PR-DEM-PRTB-PMNPTC-PV-PSDB-PTdoB
PRB-PP-PT-PTB-PMDB-PSL-PTN-PSC-PRDEM-PRTB-PMN-PV-PRP-PT do B
PT-PSB-PCdoB-PDT-PMDB-PTB-PHS.
PMN-PP-PRB-PRTB-PSC-PSL-PTdoB-PTN
AC
Tião Viana (PT)
AM
Omar Aziz (PMN)
TO
MA
Roseana (PMDB)
CE
Cid Gomes (PSB)
RN
PE
SE
Marcelo Deda (PT)
BA
Jaques Wagner (PT)
MG
ES
RJ
SP
PR
Beto Richa (PSDB)
SC
RS
Tarso Genro (PT)
PT-PR-PSB-PCdoB
MS
MT
Silval Barbosa (PMDB)
Elected/ Support in the
Reelected
Assembly
Elected
18 de 24 seats (75%)
Reelected
17 de 24 seats (70.83%)
Elected
10 de 24 seats (41.66%)
Reelected
28 de 42 seats (66.66%)
Reelected
33 de 46 seats (71.73%)
Elected
13 de 24 seats (54.16%)
Reelected
39 de 49 seats (79.59%)
Reelected
15 de 24 seats (62.50%)
Reelected
30 de 63 seats (47.61%)
Reelected
47 de 77 seats (61.03%)
Elected
18 de 30 seats (60%)
Reelected
46 de 70 seats (65.71%)
Elected
44 de 94 seats (46.80%)
Elected
26 de 54 seats (48.14%)
Elected
24 de 40 seats (60%)
Elected
18 de 55 seats (32.72%)
PRB-PTB-PMDB-PTN-PR-PPS-DEM-PRTBPHS-PMN-PTC-PSB-PSDB-PT do B
Reelected
17 de 24 seats (70.83%)
PMDB-PRB-PP-PT-PTN-PSC-PR-PHS-PTCPRP-PCdoB
Reelected
17 de 24 seats (70.83%)
PSL-PTN-PSC-DEM-PMN-PSDB
PRB-PP-PDT-PT-PTB-PSL-PSC-PR-PSDCPHS-PTC-PSB-PRP-PCdoB-PTdoB
PRB-PDT-PT-PMDB-PSL-PSC-PR-PTC-PSBPCdoB
PT-PP-PSB-PDT-PCdoB-PRB-PSL-PHS
PRB-PP-PDT-PTB-PSL-PSC-PR-PPS-DEMPSDC-PMN-PSB-PSDB
PRB-PP-PDT-PT-PMDB-PTN-PSC-PRPSDC-PHS-PTC-PSB-PV-PRP-PC do B-PT
do B
PP-PDT-PT-PTB-PMDB-PSL-PTN-PSCPSDC-PRTB-PHS-PMN-PTC-PSB-PRPPCdoB
PMDB-PSC-PPS-DEM-PHS-PMN-PSDB
PRB-PP-PTB-PSL-PTN-PPS-DEM-PSDCPHS-PMN-PTC-PSB-PRP-PSDB
PTB-PMDB-PSL-PSC-PPS-DEM-PTC-PRPPSDB
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 27
Special edition
Who was elected in the 2nd round
Midwest
Northeast
North
Coalition
Confúcio Moura (PMDB
PMDB-PDT-PCdoB
Elected/
Reelected
Support in the
Assembly
Elected
6 of 24 seats (25.00%)
Reelected
9 of 24 seats (37.50%)
Elected
9 of 41 seats (21.95%)
Elected
2 of 24 seats (8.33%)
RO
•
RR
• Anchieta Júnior (PSDB)
PA
• Simão Jatene (PSDB)
AP
• Camilo Capiberibe (PSB)
PT-PSB
PI
• Wilson Martins (PSB)
PRB-PT-PMDB-PTN-PR-PSBPRP-PCdoB
Reelected
17 of 30 seats (56.66%)
PB
• Ricardo Coutinho (PSB)
PDT-PTN-PPS-DEM-PTC-PSBPV-PRP-PSDB
Elected
16 of 36 seats (44.44%)
AL
• Teotônio Vilela Filho (PSDB)
PP-PSC-PPS-DEM-PSB-PSDB
Reelected
11 of 27 seats (40.74%)
GO
• Marconi Perillo (PSDB)
PSDB-DEM-PHS-PMN-PPSPRB-PRTB-PSL-PTB-PTCPTdoB
Elected
20 of 41 seats (48.78%)
DF
• Agnelo Queiroz (PT)
PRB-PDT-PT-PTB-PMDB-PPSPHS-PTC-PSB-PRP-PC do B
Elected
13 of 24 seats (54.16%)
PMDB-PTN-PR-PPS-DEMPSDB
PPS-DEM-PSDC-PRTB-PMNPRP-PSDB
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 28
Special edition
Turnarounds in the 2nd round
1990
Second
Rounds
16
Turn
arounds
5
1994
1998
17
Turnarounds
5
2002
13
4
Turnarounds
2006
14
3
Turnarounds
10
3
Turnarounds
Turnarounds
2010
Second
Rounds
Turn
arounds
I
n this election, there was the least number
of turnarounds between the first and second
round since 1990. In nine contests in the second round, only two candidates that came in second won the final round of voting. In seven other
states, the candidates who obtained the most votes
in the first phase of the election confirmed the victory in the second round.
This phenomenon occurred in two states of the
North. One was the Amapá, where Camilo Capiberibe was behind Lucas Barreto by a small difference
in votes (28.68% to 28.93%) in the first round. However, he finished the second round with 53.77%
against 46.23% of its opponent.
Another turn around occurred in Roraima. Governor José de Anchieta was reelected in the second
tur-in with 50.41% against 49.59% of Neudo Campos. In the first round, Anchieta obtained 45.62%,
while Neudo Campos reached 47.62%.
The analysis of the numbers since 1990 shows that this phenomenon is gradually reducing its
incidence. In the elections of 1990 and 1994 were
recorded from 5 turn arounds in both contests. In
1998, that number dropped to 4. In 2002 and 2006,
there were three turn arounds.
9
2
Turnarounds
Roraima
Anchieta (PSDB)
1st round
45.62%
X
Neudo Campos (PP)
1st round
47.62%
2 round
2 round
50.41%
49.59%
ND
ND
AMAPÁ
Lucas (PTB)
1st round
1st round
28.68%
X
28.93%
2 round
2 round
53.77%
46.23%
ND
ND
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 29
Special edition
Party evolution in state disputes
Party
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
PSDB
6
7
7
6
8
PSB
2
2
4
3
6
PMDB
9
6
5
7
5
PT
2
3
3
5
5
PFL-DEM
2
6
4
1
2
PMN
-
-
-
-
1
PPR-PPB-PP
3
2
-
1
-
PDT
2
1
1
2
-
PTB
1
-
-
-
-
PPS
-
-
2
2
-
PSL
-
-
1
-
-
PSDB has the best performance of its history in
governor disputes and PSB confirms rise
L
ooking at party evolution in the elections
from 1994 to 2010, we
see that the PSDB had the best
performance of its history,
despite the third consecutive
defeat in the presidential race.
The toucans elected 8 governors. Not even in 1994, year
in which FHC was elected president in a wave of optimism
stemming from the Real Plan,
were the results so positive.
That year, the PSDB elected 6
governors (seven in 1998 and
2002, six in 2006 and eight this
year). Another highlight in the
governor races was the PSB,
party that confirmed its rise.
Looking at 1994 compraed to
2010, the socialists jumped
from 2 to 6 governors.
The PT, despite keeping the
same number of governors in
2006, did not grow.
The PMDB, party that is
known for the strength of its
regional leaders, elected two
governors less than four years
ago.
The DEM, despite important defeats in these elections,
elected two governors.
The PMN elected one. PP,
PDT, PTB, PPS and PSL did not
elect any.
Political Scenarios
30
Special edition
Analysis of party performance
Leaves 2010 election greatly strengthened. Dilma Rousseff was elected president and PT won five state
governments (Federal District, Rio Grande do Sul, Bahia, Acre and Sergipe). Moreover, it elected most seats
of the House (88 members) and 14 senators. It was also the party that won the largest number of state representatives (149). For succession in 2014, it has two strong names (Lula and Dilma). The governors Tarso Genro
(Rio Grande do Sul) and Jaques Wagner (Bahia) can also be considered as alternatives.
Was also strengthened in the elections. The party was right to bet on an alliance with the PT, despite some
disagreements, and elected vice president, Michel Temer. It was also victorious in five states (Maranhão, Mato
Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Rio de Janeiro and Rondônia). Even if it lost the post of largest group in the House
of Representatives to the PT, managed to elect 79 congressmen (the second biggest party of the House). In the
Senate, elected 16 representatives and has the most seats. Also won 147 seats in legislative assemblies. For
2014, name of the elected governor of Rio de Janeiro, Sergio Cabral, could be considered.
Leaves the dispute defeated in presidential elections for the third consecutive time (2002, 2006 and 2010),
decreased its members in the House of Representatives from 65 to 53 deputies and the Senate kept the five
parliamentarians elected in 2006, although Arthur Virgílio (Amazonas) and Tasso Jereissatti (Ceará) have not
been reelected. However, it was the biggest winner in state disputes, electing eight governors (Alagoas, Goias,
Minas Gerais, Pará, Paraná, Roraima and Tocantins). It also elected 123 state representatives across the country. The PSDB has a strong name for 2014: the senator and former governor of Minas Gerais, Aécio Neves.
However, until then, has the challenge of building a new identity for the legend.
It was the opposition party most affected due to the favorable wave of candidates backed by President Lula.
Elected only two governors (Rio Grande do Norte and Santa Catarina), reduced the size of its group in the House
of Representatives from 65 to 43 members and Senators from 6 to 2. It had significant losses of leaders like
Marco Maciel (Pernambuco), Heráclito Fortes (Piauí) and Cesar Maia (Rio de Janeiro), all candidates for Senator.
In the legislative assembly, the party won only 76 seats. It has no direction for 2014.
With the result achieved in this year’s election, the party joined the group called the “great parties.” It
was victorious in governor disputes in six states (Ceará, Pernambuco, Espírito Santo, Amapá, Paraíba and
Piauí). Increased the group in the House of Representatives from 27 to 34 representatives and the Senate from
1 to 3 senators. In the legislative assembly, the party won 73 state representatives. The re-elected governor
of Pernambuco, Eduardo Campos, emerges as a great leader of the party, and may dream of flying higher in
2014. Some even speculate the possibility of a candidacy for president in four years.
The party gained more visibility with Marina Silva’s (PV) votes in the first round than with its own performance. It didn’t elect any governors. Fernando Gabeira (PV) the party’s biggest hope didn’t manage to be
elected. It raised its group in the House of Representatives from 13 to 16 and didn’t elect any senators. On
the state assemblies PV conquered 37 seats. Even though the party’s performance was not good, it managed
to project Marina Silva’s name for the dispute in 2014.
Political Scenarios
Nº 155 31
Special edition
Party performance in 2010 elections
Federal
State
PARTY
Presidency
Governors
Senators
PT
1
5
11
88
149
257
DEM
-
2
2
43
76
127
PMDB
-
5
16
79
147
252
PSDB
-
8
5
53
123
194
PP
-
-
4
41
48
94
PL-PR
-
-
3
41
53
98
PTB
-
-
1
20
47
73
PSB
-
6
3
43
73
125
PDT
-
-
2
28
76
108
PPS
-
-
1
12
36
49
PCdoB
-
-
1
15
18
35
PV
-
-
-
16
37
53
PMN
-
1
1
4
22
28
PSC
-
-
1
17
35
53
PSL
-
-
-
1
17
18
PHS
-
-
-
2
7
9
PTC
-
-
-
1
8
9
PSOL
-
-
2
3
4
9
PTdoB
-
-
-
3
20
23
PRB
-
-
1
8
18
27
PTR/PP
-
-
-
2
-
2
PRP
-
-
-
-
13
13
PRTB
-
-
-
-
10
10
PTN
-
-
-
-
14
14
PSDC
-
-
-
-
8
8
Representatives Representatives
Total

Dilma

Transcription

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