Namoi Catchment Action Plan 2010–2020
Transcription
Namoi Catchment Action Plan 2010–2020
Supplementary Document 1 Namoi Catchment Action Plan 2010–2020 The first step – preliminary resilience assessment of the Namoi Catchment Namoi Catchment Action Plan 2010–2020 Supplementary document 1 The first step – preliminary resilience assessment of the Namoi Catchment 2013 Update NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Acknowledgements Many people from the Catchment Community, Local Government, Government Agencies, Research Institutions, Industry Organisations, Namoi CMA Board and Namoi CMA staff have contributed time and effort in helping to develop and subsequently update the Namoi Catchment Action Plan (CAP). Their ongoing contribution is not only appreciated but essential to the successful development, implementation and adaptive management of the Namoi CAP. Namoi CMA would like to acknowledge and thank the following people in particular for their assistance in developing this resilience assessment through their participation in the initial 2010 series of workshops, which initiated the process of developing the Namoi CAP. Thinking about resilience thinking Brian Walker Bruce Brown Graham Marshall Jeffrey Bell Mary-Denese Holmes Paul Ryan Sally Egan Thinking about resilience in biodiversity Anna Cronin Bronwyn Cameron Corie Taylor David Ward Francesca Andreoni James Hutchinson-Smith Julian Wall Nathan Penny Peter Christie Peter Dawson Robert Taylor Sally Egan Tony Townsend Warren Martin Thinking about resilience in land Thinking about resilience in water Thinking about resilience in people Adam Downey Angela Baker Bronwyn Cameron Dennis Boschma Francesca Andreoni George Truman Glenn Bailey Greg Chapman Ian Daniels Jeffrey Bell Lester Thearle Pam Welsh Sally Egan Scott Stanton Shane Adams Simon Turpin Andrew Falkenmire Andrew Scott Bronwyn Cameron Bruce Brown Cate Barrett David Ward Francesca Andreoni Jane McFarlane Jim McDonald Ken Crawford Michael Healy Nathan Penny Nick Cooke Peter Christmas Sally Egan Stephanie McCaffrey Tony Townsend Warwick Marwhinney Anne Ferguson Bronwyn Cameron Colin Easton Corie Taylor David Thompson Don Tydd Francesca Andreoni Gina Davis Helen Andreoni Judith McNeill Mary-Denese Holmes Pam Welsh Peter Dawson Richard Staynor Rob Harrison Sally Egan Shannon Taylor Simon Taylor Namoi Catchment Action Plan (2010-2020) Supplementary document 1 Version 3.2 September 2013 2 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020 Contents Acknowledgements .................................................... 2 4.5 Water asset – surface water availability – environment . ...................................................76 4.6 Water asset – surface water available to people76 4.7 Water asset – floodplain flows . ........................77 4.9 Water asset – local flows . ................................79 4.10 Water asset – hydrological connectivity . .........79 4.11 Water asset – river geomorphology ................. 81 4.12 Water asset – aquatic species .........................83 . 4.13 Water asset – riparian buffers .........................84 4.14 Water asset – riparian vegetation ....................85 4.15 Water asset – optimal level of surface water quality ...................................................86 4.16 Climate change as a driver ............................. 88 4.17 What does all this mean? ............................... 88 4.18 References ......................................................89 1 Introduction . .......................................................... 5 1.1 Resilience in a nutshell......................................5 1.2 Key principles of resilience thinking ..................6 1.3 Critical thresholds identified for the Namoi Catchment . ......................................7 . 1.4 Integrated analysis of catchment-scale thresholds .........................................................8 2 Biodiversity . ..........................................................10 2.1 Biodiversity asset – local-scale connectivity ... 11 2.2 Biodiversity asset – regional landscape connectivity .................................................... 17 2.3 Biodiversity asset – total native woody vegetation cover............................................. 20 2.4 Biodiversity asset – species populations . ........26 2.5 Biodiversity asset – large areas of conserved habitat . ..........................................29 2.6 Biodiversity asset – intact native vegetation communities . ..................................................29 2.7 Biodiversity asset – waterways . ......................39 2.8 Biodiversity asset – groundwater-dependent ecosystems . ....................................................42 2.9 Climate change as a driver ..............................45 2.10 What does all this mean?................................45 2.11 References ......................................................46 5 People ....................................................................96 5.1 People asset – human capital. .........................97 5.2 People asset – social capital ......................... 101 5.3 People asset – manufactured capital ............104 5.4 People asset – financial capital ..................... 107 5.5 People asset – relationship to natural resources ..........................................109 5.6 What does all this mean? . ..............................111 5.7 Sub-regional resilience assessment .............. 112 5.8 General resilience – socio-economic analysis 116 5.9 References .................................................... 116 Appendices ..............................................................120 Appendix A: Introduction – critical thresholds identified in the 2010 resilience assessment of the Namoi Catchment ...........................................120 Appendix B: Biodiversity – background information on the species and ecological communities of the Namoi Catchment .....................................................120 Appendix C: Biodiversity – background information on threatening processes in the Namoi Catchment ... 126 Appendix D: Biodiversity – further reading . .............. 149 Appendix E: Biodiversity – results from 2010 expert workshops ................................................................163 Appendix F: Land – results from 2010 expert workshops .....................................................168 Appendix G: Land – description of Namoi Catchment LMUs ........................................... 177 Appendix H: Land – further reading . ..........................182 Appendix I: Water – further reading . ..........................183 Appendix J: Water – results from 2010 expert workshops ..................................................... 192 Appendix K: People – results from 2010 expert workshops . ....................................................198 Appendix L: People – further reading .........................204 3 Land........................................................................54 3.1 Soils asset – Liverpool Plains Red Earths ........55 3.2 Soils asset – Duri Hills ....................................56 3.3 Soils asset – Recent Western Floodplains .......56 3.4 Soils asset – High Western Floodplains . ..........57 3.5 Soils asset – Central Black Earth Floodplains ..58 3.6 Soils asset – Colluvial Black Earths .................58 3.7 Soils asset – Central Mixed Soil Floodplains ... 59 3.8 Soils asset – Flat Pilliga Outwash . ...................59 3.9 Soils asset – Sedimentary hilltops and slopes .60 3.10 Soils asset – Peel Floodplain . .......................... 61 3.11 Soils asset – Riparian Corridor......................... 61 3.12 Soils asset – Upland bogs and swamps . .......... 61 3.13 Soils asset – Basaltic Slopes and Hills . ...........62 3.14 Soils asset – Steep Basaltic Hills . ....................62 3.15 Soils asset – Other soils, general .....................63 3.16 Climate change as a driver ..............................63 3.17 What does all this mean? ................................64 3.18 References ......................................................65 4 Water ...................................................................... 67 4.1 Water asset – groundwater availability ............68 4.2 Water asset – groundwater recharge . ..............72 4.3 Water asset – optimal level of groundwater quality . .......................................73 4.4 Water asset – surface water quantity . .............74 List of figures . ........................................................ 210 List of Tables ............................................................ 212 3 1. Introduction NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 1. Introduction This resilience assessment was initially completed in 2010 as a requirement of the Catchment Action Plan (CAP) Review pilot process instigated by the New South Wales (NSW) Natural Resources Commission (NRC). The NRC had set an objective for CAPs to focus on building resilience to future change. The NRC took this position on the grounds that recent experiences with prolonged droughts, declining water availability and extreme weather events, in association with the uncertainty around future climate, demonstrated that we were (and indeed still are) in a time of rapid change and high uncertainty. The resilience thinking conceptual framework is considered an appropriate tool for managing systems in the face of high uncertainty, because it assumes that the context for the system will be constantly changing. Some revisions have also been made to this catchmentwide assessment of specified resilience, and these are noted throughout the document. Also, some additional sections have been added to include some of the work undertaken to assess resilience at the finer sub-regional scale, building on the catchment-scale preliminary assessment that was undertaken initially. 1.1 Resilience in a nutshell Resilience is defined as the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and still retain its basic function and structure. Resilience thinking has arisen because current approaches to sustainable natural resource management (NRM) are failing to deliver on expectations, because they rely on modelling of average conditions and ignore the impacts of major disturbances; they fail to recognise secondary effects and feedbacks that affect the bigger system; and they fail to recognise that the world as a whole is changing and we need to be in a position to work with change, rather than being vulnerable to it. Namoi Catchment Management Authority (CMA) presented the initial resilience assessment in 2010 as the first step in the process of understanding the complexity and resilience of our systems. The time available for this process was very short; thus, Namoi CMA was unable to delve too deeply into the function and controlling variables for much of the catchment. This assessment was developed to inform the strategic directions of the CAP as far as possible, given the available time. At the time, we acknowledged that some of the thresholds we had identified in this document and the resulting CAP might prove to be incorrect. However, we noted that – provided we acknowledged the ‘unknowns’ and had an adaptive management process in place to review system trends, changes, drivers, thresholds and intervention activity – the resilience thinking approach should put us in a place where we understand what is critical to the catchment’s function and exactly where we are in relation to relevant thresholds. This resilience assessment underpinned the development of the Namoi Catchment Action Plan (2010 – 2020). Resilience thinking identifies social-ecological systems. It assumes that we all live and operate in social systems that are acting on and underpinned by ecological systems; that is, it assumes that people, wherever they live, are dependent on ecosystems. Social-ecological systems are complex adaptive systems that change in ways that may not be predictable, linear or incremental. These systems can also change state in response to either a shock or a slow pattern of change. The point at which a system will change into a different state is called a threshold. The attribute of resilience, therefore, refers to the capacity of a social-ecological system to absorb shocks and disturbances without crossing a threshold. Social-ecological systems are complex and are controlled by multiple variables; however, it is usually only a handful of variables that are the critical drivers of change in a system. Within each of these variables there could be a threshold that, if crossed, means that the system will behave in a different way; once a threshold has been crossed, it is usually very difficult to get back to the previous state. When managing for resilience, it can be considered that we are attempting to create or maintain distance between where the system is now and where the thresholds might be. As part of ongoing adaptive management, this document is an update of the resilience assessment that reflects 2 years of further analysis, review and evidence; similarly, there has been an update of the Namoi CAP that is based on this assessment. Two additional resilience assessments have also been undertaken: • one looking at specified resilience of the socialecological systems (the Tablelands, Slopes and Plains sub-regions) of the Namoi Catchment, with particular emphasis on socio-economics • one taking an initial look at general resilience of the Namoi Catchment, based on socio-economic variables. 5 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 1. Inroduction 1.2 Key principles of resilience thinking Resilience thinking looks at two different parts of resilience. The first is specified resilience, which is the system’s resilience to specific changes are known about and can be measured. The second is general resilience, which looks at how resilient the system might be to changes and shocks that cannot be predicted. What does resilience mean? The capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganise so as to retain essentially the same function, structure and feedbacks1 – to have the same identity. Attributes that contribute to general resilience include diversity, ecological variability, modularity (i.e. not everything is connected to everything else), acknowledgement of slow variables, tight feedbacks, social capital, innovation, overlapping governance, and an acknowledgement and appropriate pricing of ecosystem services. Resilience thinking accepts People are a part of the natural system and are underpinned by natural resources. Therefore, social-ecological systems are defined, rather than just ecological systems. A better understanding of general resilience has also now been developed, as part of the 2013 update to the Namoi CAP, based on research and analysis completed as part of the update, together with previous work completed by Namoi CMA and other organisations that includes scenario planning, regional economic development strategies, and social and economic data. Resilience thinking accepts Things are changing (and always have). Therefore, rivers of change and potential shocks are identified. Resilience thinking accepts Trying to hold natural systems in place or return them to previous states may not be possible. Therefore, trends, drivers, variables and conceptual models of how the system works are needed. Resilience thinking tells us We must know what we need to do to establish the resilience of natural assets so that we can continue to rely on them despite changes and shocks. Therefore, implications of continued trends and shocks on the asset are identified. Resilience thinking accepts There are often limits to how far a system can be pushed before it changes to a different and undesirable state. Therefore, possible undesirable states should be identified. Resilience thinking relies on A focus on thresholds (‘tipping points’) between alternative states (or ‘regimes’) of a system. Therefore, thresholds are identified where possible. 1 Walker & Salt 2006 6 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 1.3 Critical thresholds identified for the Namoi Catchment 1. Inroduction strongly suspected or possible) has been drawn from the information documented in this resilience assessment. A general indication of the confidence rating (high, medium or low) is also provided, based on the strength of evidence for the threshold identified through research completed to date and documented in the Namoi CMA CAP evidence library. Where relevant, notes have been added to give context to the confidence rating. Table 1 provides an updated list of the critical thresholds for the Namoi Catchment based on the 2013 revisions undertaken as part of the adaptive management process. There has been a change to one threshold in the water theme, and the rephrasing of another in the biodiversity theme. The original set of critical thresholds identified for the Namoi Catchment, based on the first iteration of this resilience assessment, are given in Appendix A. Further detail for each asset is available in the relevant chapter in this report. This is a first step, and it is intended to produce a detailed rating of the strength of each individual item of evidence underpinning the Namoi CAP and the associated thresholds (documented in the Namoi CAP evidence library) in the future. Table 1 also provides an assessment of the strength of evidence and a confidence rating for each threshold. The evidence for each threshold resulting from the resilience assessment (resilience assessment outcome: known, Table 1 Critical thresholds identified for the Namoi Catchment Theme Threshold Biodiversity Woody vegetation cover (% remaining of original extent) – 30%. Woody vegetation cover (% remaining of original extent) – 70%. Regional vegetation communities maintain over 30% extent.2 Population size of individual species (generic – not specified for each species currently). Habitat area for individual species or populations (generic – not specified for each species currently). Area of endangered or vulnerable community (generic – not specified for each species currently). Presence of individual invasive species (i.e. Presence/absence is the threshold). Population extent of individual invasive species. Groundcover is at least 70%. Surface water flow quantity is at 66% of natural (pre-development) condition, with a sensitivity to natural frequency and duration. River geomorphic condition is good (against benchmark condition). Recruitment of riparian vegetation is higher than attrition of individual trees. Agricultural and urban supply aquifers do not cross into lower levels of beneficial use. Alluvial aquifers are not drawn down below historical maximum drawdown levels. Groundwater levels do not drop below the rooting depth of groundwater-dependent vegetation ecosystems.8 Wetlands are not drained, dammed or otherwise physically modified. No overarching thresholds identified at this stage. Instead a general focus on the key areas of wellbeing and adaptive capacity. Land Water People 2 Resilience assessment outcome Strongly suspected Strongly suspected Strongly suspected Strongly suspected Overall Confidence rating High High High Medium3 Strongly suspected Medium4 Strongly suspected Medium5 Strongly suspected High Strongly suspected Strongly suspected Strongly suspected Medium6 Medium7 High Strongly suspected Strongly suspected High High Strongly suspected High Strongly suspected High Strongly suspected Medium9 Strongly suspected N/A High Medium10 The wording of this threshold has, for clarity, been changed as part of the 2013 update. The threshold is not specific to any one individual species. Further work is required to understand the specific thresholds pertaining to individual species. 4 The threshold is not specific to any one individual species. Further work is required to understand the specific thresholds pertaining to individual species – as per CAP Action No. 16 5 The threshold is not specific to any one endangered or vulnerable ecological community. Further work is required to understand the specific thresholds pertaining to individual species – as per CAP Action No. 16. 6 The threshold is not specific to any one individual invasive species. Further work is required to understand the specific thresholds in relation to emerging invasive species in the Namoi Catchment. 7 It is considered likely that a higher threshold may be appropriate in the eastern parts of the sub-catchment. Further analysis and investigation is required to ascertain if this is the case. 8 This threshold has been changed as part of the 2013 update. Namoi CMA Board has made this change to the threshold following analysis and review, based on the variability in groundwater-dependent ecosystems throughout the Namoi Catchment and their water access requirements. One threshold based on one fixed depth to the water table is considered overly simplistic, and the available information is indicative based on other regions and not definitive. More localised and up-to-date information is required, and will be sought as part of ongoing adaptive management. 9 This is generic, and further work is required to ascertain the specific depth required for each individual regional vegetation community in the catchment that is groundwater-dependent. Further investigation and analysis is required. 10 Evidence is emerging that there may be some stronger evidence for thresholds around wellbeing. Further investigation and analysis is required. 3 7 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 1.4 Integrated analysis of catchment-scale thresholds bution of critical thresholds identified at the catchment scale to catchment function as a whole across all four CAP themes. This matrix demonstrates the relationships and contri CAP threshold 1. Inroduction Threshold contribution across all four CAP themes Biodiversity Water High High Critical biodiversity Important for threshold hydrological balance Regional vegetation community 30% extent High Critical biodiversity threshold Low Some water quality and hydrology impact Land Low Some contribution to soil health from woody vegetation Low Some groundcover impacts Threatened species thresholds (grouped) Medium Apart from loss of individual species – flowon effects variable High Major impact on biodiversity High Major role in biodiversity Nil No evidence of reliance Nil No evidence of reliance Medium If impacting groundcover or aquatic species High Major role in water quality and quantity High Critical water threshold Medium If impacting on soil health High Critical land threshold Woody vegetation extent (30% and 70%) Invasive species thresholds (grouped) Groundcover (70%) Surface water flow (66% natural flow) High Major role in aquatic and floodplain biodiversity Geomorphic condition (high) High Major impact on aquatic biodiversity, floodplain function and groundwater recharge High Major impact on biodiversity Medium Potential to impact on groundwater-dependent vegetation High Critical water threshold Medium Potential to impact on groundwater-dependent vegetation High Potential to impact on groundwater-dependent vegetation High Major impact on aquatic biodiversity Medium Indirect link to more tolerance for biodiversity conservation and maintain governance to support delivery Medium Able to adjust to shocks and change and modify practices High Critical water threshold Riparian vegetation recruitment (more than rate of attrition) Aquifer quality (no drop in beneficial use) Aquifer drawdown (does not exceed historical maximum) Groundwater for groundwaterdependent ecosystems Wetlands (not dammed or removed) Social wellbeing11 Adaptive capacity12 Medium Apart from erosion context and floodplain soil health Nil No evidence of reliance except immediate erosion implications People High Important for groundwater tables and biodiversity Low Impact on landscape diversity and sense of place and wellbeing Low Some impacts from loss of iconic species Medium If impacting on productivity or health High Major productivity implications High Availability of surface flow for domestic and commercial use High Due to critical impact on groundwater recharge High Water-quality impacts Nil No evidence of reliance Nil No evidence of reliance High Critical water threshold High Highly dependent on good-quality groundwater Medium Critical water threshold Medium Potential to impact on soil health if poorquality water is used for irrigation purposes Low Some impacts from changed land use if water availability lessens Nil No evidence of reliance High Critical water threshold Nil No evidence of reliance Low No evidence of reliance Medium Better able to manage water sources sustainably and support governance to deliver Medium Better able to manage land for groundcover retention and support governance to deliver High Critical element of people system Medium Able to adjust to shocks and change and modify practices Medium Able to adjust to shocks and change and modify practices High Critical element of people system 11 High Highly dependent on good-quality groundwater Nil No evidence of reliance The relationships between social wellbeing and the land, water and biodiversity thresholds as a contribution to critical catchment function have been reviewed in light of analysis completed in 2012–2013. The contribution of these two factors to biodiversity, land and water has as a result been changed from the original ‘low’ to ‘medium’. Further information is available in Chapter 5. 12 The relationships between social wellbeing and the land, water and biodiversity thresholds as a contribution to critical catchment function have been reviewed in light of analysis completed in 2012–2013. The contribution of these two factors to biodiversity, land and water has as a result been changed from the original ‘low’ to ‘medium’. Further information is available in Chapter 5. 8 2. Biodiversity NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 2. Biodiversity Biodiversity is defined as the ‘variety of all life forms: different plants, animals, the genes they contain and the ecosystems in which they live’. In this document, ‘biodiversity’ refers to ‘terrestrial biodiversity’. connected waterways and regional landscape connectivity. Further monitoring, evidence and analysis have been undertaken since 2010, when this assessment was first completed. The 2013 update includes the results of further literature reviews, consultation with experts and the catchment community, and research specifically commissioned to inform this assessment as prioritised in the Namoi CAP, or as part of ongoing monitoring and evaluation undertaken. A series of two expert workshops were run in 2010 with a range of biodiversity experts, to identify assets within the biodiversity theme, any known thresholds, and the drivers considered relevant from a resilience perspective. A conceptual model was drafted by the authors as a starting point for discussion around the critical assets underpinning biodiversity in the Namoi Catchment. This model suggested that total woody vegetation cover and intact native vegetation communities are the most critical assets, followed by large areas of conserved habitat, Figure 1: Conceptual model of how biodiversity assets interact to provide ‘biodiversity’ in the catchment.; an ‘arrow to’ represents a contribution from an ‘arrow from’ asset 10 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 2.1 Biodiversity asset – local-scale connectivity 2. Biodiversity be limited due to stresses associated with fragmentation (loss of connectivity). The influence of trees and small remnants on soil service properties at a site scale is also significant. Definition Drivers and threats Local-scale connectivity has been defined as the connectivity provided by small remnants and paddock trees. Current estimates for the rate of tree decline range from 1% to 5% per annum. Overall impacts of clearing and removal of vegetation, and thus loss of connectivity, are greatest in those landscapes with highly productive soil types. Trend in condition Declining. Notes on trend Conceptual model Paddock trees are dying. Many small remnants are not viable in the long term without intervention due to impacts such as edge effects, patch size and climate change trends. A range of conceptual models available in the literature are presented below. These models illustrate both the role and the ecological function of isolated trees and small remnants, as well as some of the processes underlying their current decline in the catchment. (See Figures 2–12) Thresholds known or suspected Impacts of continuing trend Small remnants and paddock trees provide important habitat connectivity for a range of native species. Some of the key tree species affected in the Namoi Valley include poplar box (Eucalyptus populnea), river red gum (E. camaldulensis), yellow box (E. melliodora) and roughbarked apple (Angophora floribunda). More recently, there has also been concern about dieback of river oak (Casuarina cunninghamiana) in parts of the Namoi Catchment. Known Nil. Strongly suspected 1) Mortality among established trees kept below 0.5% per year, recruitment of new trees at a rate higher than the number of existing trees, and recruit new trees at a frequency in years equivalent to around 15% of the maximum life expectancy of the tree species in question. 2) A minimum of 400–500 mature trees required to maintain genetic diversity of a patch in Eucalypt woodlands. 3) Fertiliser application. These small remnants and paddock trees are also often the last bastion in terms of seed banks and regenerative capacity for ecosystem types with high levels of modification and removal due to clearing and development associated with agriculture, urban expansion and extractive industries. Regenerative capacity can, however, Figure 2: Conceptual model describing the process of tree loss Source: Namoi CMA Expert Workshops 2010 11 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 2. Biodiversity Figure 3: Ecological function of scattered trees Precise thresholds regarding particular stresses such as defoliation levels, damage by livestock, impacts from cropping practices, lack of regeneration and water stress specifically relating to rates of tree decline were not identifiable for the catchment. The general threshold for these effects is however the point at which the individual tree is unable to recover. Controlling variables Rates of recruitment and rates of tree mortality are the most critical controlling variables for this asset. Previous research suggests that the loss of scattered mature trees is most sensitive to tree mortality, stand age, number of recruits and frequency of recruitment. Source: Extract from Manning et al (2006) Figure 4: Conceptual model of the processes underlying rural dieback Source: Landsberg (1995) 12 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 5: Conceptual model of the development of rural dieback Key: Blacked-in pathways are based on the results of research. Uncoloured pathways are more speculative. Broken lines indicate positive feedback pathways Source: Landsberg (1995) Figure 6: Effect of drought water stress on trees Extract from Reid et al (2007) 13 2. Biodiversity NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 7: Effect of falling water-table water stress on trees Extract from Reid et al (2007) Figure 8: Effect of lack of river flooding water stress on trees Extract from Reid et al (2007) 14 2. Biodiversity NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 9: Effect of prolonged inundation water stress on trees Extract from Reid et al (2007) Figure 10: Effect of dryland salinity on trees Extract from Reid et al (2007) 15 2. Biodiversity NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 11: Effect of insect damage (New England type dieback) on trees Extract from Reid et al (2007) Figure 12: Effect of insect attack and noisy miner dominance on trees Extract from Reid et al (2007) 16 2. Biodiversity NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 2.2 Biodiversity asset – regional landscape connectivity 2. Biodiversity are presented below from a number of sources. They illustrate evolutionary processes that operate at this catchment or bioregion scale, and illustrate the effects of fragmentation at a range of scales. (See Figures 13–18) Definition Thresholds known or suspected Regional landscape connectivity refers to how connectivity occurs across the Namoi Catchment itself, and across into neighbouring catchments Known Nil. Trend in condition Strongly suspected Declining. 1) Mortality among established trees kept below 0.5% per year, recruitment of new trees at a rate higher than the number of existing trees, and recruitment of new trees at a frequency in years equivalent to around 15% of the maximum life expectancy of the tree species in question. 2) A minimum of 400–500 trees required to maintain genetic diversity of a patch in eucalypt woodlands. 3) Gaps more than 106 m – many species will not cross. 4) Patches more than 1100 m apart – reduces species dispersal. 5) Corridors more than 350 m wide. 6) Gap distance less than 75 m where gliding marsupials occur. Notes on trend In some parts of the catchment, regional landscape connectivity is very poor and continuing to decline, and in other areas it is stable. Impacts of continuing trend There is a high possibility of species loss and local or global extinctions due to the ongoing loss of regional landscape connectivity. Also, loss of connectivity reduces the viability of those remnant patches that do remain. Total vegetation cover can be impacted by reduced connectivity. Drivers and threats Current estimates for the rate of tree decline range from 1% to 5% per annum. The impacts are biased towards those landscapes with highly productive soil types. Controlling variables Rates of recruitment, rates of patch decline and net loss of native vegetation overall are the controlling variables for this asset. Conceptual model A range of conceptual models available in the literature Figure 13: Significant ecological and evolutionary processes in relation to geographical and temporal scale Source: Mackay et al (2010) 17 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 14: Relationship between habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and habitat quality within an area Source: Franklin et al (2002) Figure 15: Flow diagram differentiating between landscapes experiencing habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and changes in habitat quality Source: Franklin et al (2002) Figure 16: Schematic representation of changes in the extent of fragmentation over time (typical pattern for inland catchments of NSW, including the Namoi) Source: Franklin et al (2002) 18 2. Biodiversity NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 17: Generalised model of the relationship between microclimate and the distance from the edge of a forest 2. Biodiversity Figure 19: Detail of the Western Woodlands Way proposal showing options for connectivity maintenance and restoration across and beyond the Namoi Catchment Source: Lovett and Price (2007) Figure 18: Role of functional connectivity Source: Fuller et al (2011) Figure 20: Detail of the Namoi Catchment Biodiversity Conservation Plan showing options for connectivity maintenance and restoration within and beyond the Namoi Catchment Source: Hodgson et al (2009) Source: Taylor et al (2012) 19 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 2.3 Biodiversity asset – total native woody vegetation cover 2. Biodiversity • remoteness from water (grazing impacts) – more or less than 5% of area is more than 3 km from a water point • fragility of land system – vulnerable or not to invasive species (now or in the future) • rareness and irreplaceability – found in only one place within the region or not • size of land system (total area) – more or less than 20 km2 in area • isolation of land system – nearest similar land system or habitat more or less than 30 km away Definition Total woody vegetation cover is expressed as a percentage of the catchment or sub-catchments that have woody vegetation cover. Trend in condition Declining. Notes on trend For terrestrial biodiversity conservation to be most effective in landscapes with 30–70% native vegetation cover, the following thresholds are suggested (see Figure 25): In some parts of the catchment, total native woody vegetation is very poor and continuing to decline, whereas in other areas it is stable. An updated analysis of woody vegetation cover for the Namoi Catchment completed in 2012 has resulted in a revision of the vegetation extent from 50% to 45% remaining. • water tables – threatened by rising water tables or not • amount of clearing – less than 30%, 30–70%, or more than 70% • rareness and irreplaceability – found in only one place within the region or not • total extent of vegetation community or species range (area) – more or less than 20 km2 in area • fragility of land system to degradation – vulnerable to invasive species or not (now or in the future). Impacts of continuing trend There is a very high possibility of species loss and local or global extinctions. Land degradation will continue and possibly accelerate, particularly in relation to salinity and erosion. Water quality will continue to degrade. Productivity of existing agricultural systems will continue to decline. Scenic amenity will be reduced and the ecosystem services of seed production, honey production, timber production, climate regulation, supporting hydrological equilibrium and supporting air quality will be negatively affected. For terrestrial biodiversity conservation to be most effective in landscapes with 10–30% native vegetation cover, the following thresholds are suggested (see Figures 26–30): Drivers and threats • water tables – threatened by rising water tables or not • amount of clearing – less than 30%, 30–70%, or more than 70% • rareness and irreplaceability – found in only one place within the region or not • total extent of vegetation community or species range (area) – more or less than 20 km2 in area • fragility of land system to degradation – vulnerable to invasive species or not (now or in the future) • degree of isolation – more or less than 10 km to the nearest identical land system. Utility clearing, mining and development, agricultural practices, disturbance events (e.g. flood, fire and drought), approved clearing, natural attrition, illegal clearing, climate change. Estimates for rate of net loss of cover in the catchment range from 1% to 5% per annum. Impacts are biased towards those landscapes with highly productive soil types. Vegetation is one of the critical aspects to the management and maintenance of soils. Greater vegetation cover results in reduced run-off erosion. Conceptual model Figure 29 shows priority sub-catchments based on proximity to thresholds, based on 2012 mapping undertaken for the purpose of catchment and sub-catchmentscale planning. The relationship between species and habitat area, and in particular woody vegetation as habitat, has been well established both internationally and within the Australian environment (particularly within temperate woodland environments such as those found in the Namoi Catchment). According to the species-area curve, the extent of habitat is a dominant influence on the occurrence of single species or the richness of assemblages defined by habitat type. (See Figures 21–23) Dark green represents a priority for maintenance and restoration because the sub-catchment is close to the 30% extent remaining threshold (i.e. 25–35% original extent of woody vegetation, or tree cover, remaining), and light green represents a priority for maintenance because the sub-catchment is above the 70% extent remaining threshold. The other areas either have less than 25% original woody vegetation extent remaining, or have between 36% and 64% original woody vegetation extent remaining. For terrestrial biodiversity conservation to be most effective in landscapes with over 70% native vegetation cover (i.e. relatively intact), the following thresholds are suggested (see Figure 24): 20 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 The woody vegetation extent data underlying the priorities outlined in Figure 29 are presented below in Table 2. 2. Biodiversity Figure 21: Woodland bird richness as it relates to tree cover Thresholds known or suspected Known Nil. Strongly suspected 1) 30% woody vegetation cover loss and 70% woody vegetation cover loss. 2) 30–35% minimum of native vegetation cover. 3) Less than 10% habitat cover at the landscape scale leads to a sharp decline in species richness. 4) A maximum threshold of 30% intensive land use on properties, a minimum of 30% woodland cover, 10% of a property to be managed for wildlife, 30–40% maximum bare ground, 60–70% minimum tussock grass dominance, and 5–10 ha minimum size of woodland patches. Extract from Radford et al (2005) illustrati Figure 22: Key interactions between ecological and hydrological processes Controlling variables Percentage native woody vegetation cover. Extract from Ludwig et al (2005) 21 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 2. Biodiversity Figure 23: Decision tree for assigning priorities to each biodiversity attribute for landscapes with more than 70% native vegetation cover Figure 24: Decision tree for assigning priorities to each biodiversity attribute for landscapes with 30–70% native vegetation cover Source: James and Saunders (2001) Source: James and Saunders (2001) 22 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 2. Biodiversity Figure 25: Decision tree for assigning priorities to each biodiversity attribute for landscapes with 10–30% native vegetation cover Source: James and Saunders (2001) Figure 26: Diagnosis of landscapes as classified in the framework outlined in Figures 23–25 Source: James and Saunders (2001) 23 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 27: Conceptual illustration of the relationship between extinction of species and native vegetation cover 2. Biodiversity Figure 29: Percentage of remaining woody native vegetation by grid cells Source: Taylor et al (2012) Figure 30: Priority sub-catchments for woody vegetation extent maintenance or improvement Source: James and Saunders (2001) Figure 28: A series of species-area curves in relation to per cent native vegetation remaining Source: Gibbons (2009) 24 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 2. Biodiversity Table 2 Data showing per cent remaining for woody vegetation extent by sub-catchment Sub-catchment name Pre-European woody vegetation extent (ha) Current woody vegetation extent (ha) % Original extent cleared % Original extent remaining Bluevale 124275.9481 22663.815 81.8 18.2 Upper Macdonald 84687.75826 16334.10305 80.7 19.3 Upper Pian 102664.4297 20607.44937 79.9 20.1 Keepit 60460.90749 13143.29282 78.3 21.7 Goonoo Goonoo 66509.06894 14839.61131 77.7 22.3 Bugilbone 219249.9465 49809.296 77.3 22.7 Lower Peel 160085.3197 36908.71081 76.9 23.1 Carroll 18683.44225 4316.291855 76.9 23.1 Mooki 50563.75052 12347.98451 75.6 24.4 Rangira 32058.63134 8125.364253 74.7 25.3 Gunidgera 95783.05974 25368.84586 73.5 26.5 Cox’s Creek 126614.4125 33903.78895 73.2 26.8 Bobbiwaa 44507.17861 13129.79889 70.5 29.5 Warrah 130014.3625 38654.12483 70.3 29.7 Spring Creek 26021.58611 8083.529008 68.9 31.1 Lower Pian 221470.1402 72580.23433 67.2 32.8 Box Creek 168485.391 55753.51537 66.9 33.1 141170.29 47596.84283 66.3 33.7 Bundock 54711.27496 18692.62231 65.8 34.2 Werris Creek 91730.49326 33509.91756 63.5 36.5 Chaffey 42156.13223 15580.23531 63.0 37.0 Mid Macdonald 91538.57612 36421.26092 60.2 39.8 Quirindi 81275.52143 32655.18386 59.8 40.2 Split Rock 25437.04949 10341.32078 59.3 40.7 Bundella Creek 235275.1009 95921.3194 59.2 40.8 Phillips 45662.41395 18775.1653 58.9 41.1 Lower Manilla 43022.549 18126.53912 57.9 42.1 Upper Manilla 138841.9553 60263.57596 56.6 43.4 Eulah Creek 156940.3214 72822.36278 53.6 46.4 Upper Peel River 85938.76494 42594.07726 50.4 49.6 Brigalow 32331.61946 16659.0069 48.5 51.5 Cockburn River 113016.6229 60888.95054 46.1 53.9 130696.7056 72160.52979 44.8 55.2 Maules 115067.6202 66074.90646 42.6 57.4 Baradine 177966.5819 127783.6497 28.2 71.8 Talluba 68639.64847 49405.34229 28.0 72.0 Etoo 102122.1989 81345.63843 20.3 79.7 Bohena 83140.10176 70133.31512 15.6 84.4 Borah 139523.1948 123913.5308 11.2 88.8 Coghill 79202.09668 75585.83598 4.6 95.4 Lake Goran Upper Namoi 25 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 2.4 Biodiversity asset – species populations 2. Biodiversity Controlling variables Definition Critical controlling variables include the habitat area available, population size and recruitment rates. These will vary, however, according to the species or community in question. Trend in condition Figure 31: Vulnerability of various sectors in Australia to climate change (note the high level of vulnerability of natural ecosystems) Declining or at high risk from system changes (e.g. climate change). Declining or stable, but high risk. Notes on trend Trend in threatened species – declining (i.e. there is an ever-growing list of threatened species, versus a very small number of species populations or ecological communities being recovered and coming off the threatened species list). Some species are on the increase, because they take advantage of modifications to the landscape that they are well suited to; however, these are in the minority. Key threatening processes to biodiversity are continuing to increase, and most are yet to be successfully abated. Overall, biodiversity is in decline and predicted climate change impacts are expected to exacerbate this trend. (See Figures 31–37) Impacts of continuing trend Source: Steffen et al (2009) High possibility of local or global species extinctions. Secondary wave of extinction possible due to complexity of poorly understood inter-species interactions. Flow-on effects will include potential loss of face of the community in regard to biodiversity conservation, reduced funding and investment in catchment-wide NRM, public sadness and reduced connection with place and landscape. Species loss is particularly significant to Aboriginal communities, which value each species intrinsically. Figure 32: Traits of species that will be more or less resilient to climate change impacts Drivers and threats Habitat disturbance, habitat loss, feral animals, invasive weeds, climate change. Conceptual model (See Figures 35–39) Source: Steffen et al (2009) Thresholds known or suspected Figure 33: Outline of priority threatened species for investment in site management Known Nil. Strongly suspected 1) Population size. 2) Habitat area available. Further background information on the species and ecological communities is provided in this document, in Appendix B. Information on threatened species and key threatening processes in the Namoi Catchment is also provided, in Appendix C. For further details on biodiversity, threatened species, and appropriate fire regime thresholds for different vegetation communities, please refer to the Namoi Catchment Conservation Strategy. Source: Taylor et al (2012) 26 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 34: Map of priority threatened species for investment in site management 2. Biodiversity Figure 36: Effects of climate change and how individuals and communities may respond Source: Taylor et al (2012) Figure 35: Conceptual illustrations of extinction thresholds for species in relation to habitat amount and of the ‘threshold zone’ for ecological function where a non-linear relationship exists Source: Steffen et al (2009) Figure 37: Relationship between species richness and ecosystem function, highlighting the significance of the greater loss of biodiversity from richer and more productive soil types and ecosystems where the greatest levels of development and modification have occurred Source: Sala et al (1996) Source: Hugget (2005) 27 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 38: A range of thresholds identified for percentage decline in distribution of species or communities 2. Biodiversity Figure 39: A range of thresholds identified in relation to area of occupancy and extent of occurrence Source: Nicholson et al (2009) Source: Nicholson et al (2009) 28 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 2. Biodiversity 2.5 Biodiversity asset – large areas of conserved habitat 2.6 Biodiversity asset – intact native vegetation communities Definition Definition Trend in condition Trend in condition Notes on trend Notes on trend Large areas of conserved habitat includes wilderness, national park, reserves and other areas managed for conservation. Defined as the condition and arrangement of vegetation and habitat, and is based on the variety of regional vegetation communities (RVCs) occurring in the catchment. Stable, and possibly increasing in area. Declining or very poor and stable. The overall area of land reserved in public protected areas has increased. (See Figures 40 and 41) As this asset is increasing, no action is required. The Namoi CMA has undertaken mapping and assessment of all RVCs for the Namoi Catchment, outlining current extent, former extent, percentage reserved, drivers of change, potential climate change vulnerability and management recommendations for each RVC occurring in the catchment. The table shown in Figure 44 provides the information that was used in the development of the Namoi Conservation Strategy and informed analysis in 2010. Figure 40: Map of NSW showing the percentage of each bioregion protected in reserves The RVC mapping has since been updated, and the updated figures are provided in Figure 42 below. The table in Figure 42 provides the results of the latest mapping and analysis of RVCs in the Namoi Catchment, based on work completed in 2013. In several instances, the original RVC mapping overestimated the amount remaining, because the mapping was based on various datasets and remotesensed images that did not take into account more recent clearing events. Thus, the updated mapping provides more accurate figures and in some cases has resulted in a downward revision of the extent remaining for RVCs across the Namoi Catchment. The previous RVC statistics, as provided in the 2008 Namoi Conservation Strategy, are presented in Figure 44, for comparison. Source: DECCW (2009) Figure 41: Percentage reservation of each of the NSW bioregions Based on the revised classification and mapping of RVCs for the Namoi, there are now 70 true RVCs, and three derived RVCs listed as occurring across the Namoi Catchment. The derived RVCs are three types of modified woodlands communities that are now grasslands (resulting from the tree and shrub cover being removed, such that a modified grassland community remains). The total area of ‘true’ RVCs covers just over 40% of the catchment. The other 60% consists of derived native grasslands (thus, a modified native vegetation community with the tree and shrub cover removed), or has been cleared of native vegetation. For further details please refer to the RVC fact sheets available on the Namoi CMA website13. Latest figures broken down by sub-catchment are also available from Namoi CMA on request. 13 Source: DECCW (2009) 29 www.namoi.cma.nsw.gov.au NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Impacts of continuing trend 2. Biodiversity below in Figure 47. These weeds are targeted where they are affecting an important biodiversity asset, and where control measures are feasible. High possibility of local or global species and ecosystem extinctions. Secondary wave of extinction possible due to complexity of poorly understood interspecies interactions. Flow-on effects will include potential loss of face of the community in regard to biodiversity conservation, reduced funding and investment into catchment-wide NRM, public sadness and reduced connection with place and landscape. Species loss is particularly significant to Aboriginal communities, which value each species intrinsically. Priority established invasive animal species in the Namoi Catchment are presented in Figure 48. Conceptual model (See Figures 51 and 52) Thresholds known or suspected Known Drivers and threats Nil Habitat disturbance, invasive species (weeds and vertebrates), fragmentation. Strongly suspected 1) While specific thresholds have not been identified, the critical threshold for intact vegetation communities (both in terms of condition and arrangement) is regenerative potential. 2) Presence or absence of introduced grazing species. 3) Presence or absence of introduced weed species. (See Figure 53) Investigations of invasive species threats in the Namoi Catchment were completed in 2012. Priority weed species for exclusion from the Namoi Catchment are outlined in Figure 44. Priority invasive animal species for exclusion from the Namoi Catchment are outlined in Figure 45. Controlling variables Priority emerging weed species in the Namoi Catchment are outlined in the table presented in Figure 46 below. High-priority widespread weeds in the Namoi Catchment and their status under the NSW legislation are outlined Degree of fragmentation, patch size, condition score, frequency and intensity of grazing or cropping, nutrient cycle status. 30 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 42: Status and extent of regional vegetation communities 31 2. Biodiversity NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 32 2. Biodiversity NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Source: 2013 updated regional vegetation community mapping 33 2. Biodiversity NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 43: Status and extent of regional vegetation communities 34 2. Biodiversity NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 35 2. Biodiversity NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Source: Namoi Conservation Strategy 36 2. Biodiversity NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 44: Priority invasive plant species for exclusion from the Namoi Catchment 2. Biodiversity Figure 45: Priority invasive animal species for exclusion from the Namoi Catchment Source: ELA (2012) Figure 46: Priority emerging invasive plant species in the Namoi Catchment Source: ELA (2012) Source: ELA (2012) 37 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 47: Priority widespread invasive plant species in the Namoi Catchment 2. Biodiversity Figure 49: Priorities for investment in conservation and improvement of extant vegetation Source: Taylor et al (2012) Figure 50: Priorities for investment in native vegetation according to state-wide native vegetation management priorities Source: ELA (2012) Figure 48: Priority widespread invasive animal species in the Namoi Catchment Source: OEH (2012) Figure 51: Conceptual model of the thresholds that can be applied to intact or degraded vegetation communities Source: King and Hobbs (2007) 38 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 2. Biodiversity Impacts of continuing trend Figure 52: Threshold effect regarding weed invasion Water-quality trend is downwards and continues to worsen, with species loss including iconic fish species such as eel-tailed catfish, loss of aquatic habitat, impacts on terrestrial species due to declining drought refugia, reduced recreation possibility, declining access to clean drinking water, rising costs in water filtration, breakdown of biodiversity function at a landscape scale, economic downturn as a result of reduced fresh water, failure of infrastructure, and changed wetting and drying regimes as a result of river incision. Drivers and threats Climate change, water regulation, grazing, vegetation removal, weeds, introduced fish species, intensification of agriculture and urban development. Source: NSW DPI and OEH (2011) Figure 53: A range of thresholds associated with intact woodland communities (including coolibah – black box woodland, which is an important vegetation type in the Namoi Catchment) Conceptual model (See Figures 54–57) Thresholds known or suspected Known Nil. Strongly suspected 1) Research to date suggests that, to maintain a river in a healthy state, the flow regime must be at least two thirds of the natural level. Controlling variables Geomorphology and surface-water quantity. Figure 54: Key environmental components of a river ecosystem Source: Nicholson et al (2009) 2.7 Biodiversity asset – waterways 2.7.1 Waterways – connected Definition Expressed as percentage intact rivers and streams and connected wetlands, lakes. Trend in condition Declining or stable but poor. Notes on trend Refer to water assets section for more information on trends associated with connected waterways. Source: MDBC (2008) 39 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 55: Components of a best practice framework for managing resilience in river ecosystems 2. Biodiversity Figure 57: River condition across Australia, 2001 Source: Parsons et al (2009) Figure 56: Role of riparian vegetation as a habitat network and potential movement corridor Source: Norris et al (2001) 2.7.2 Waterways – unconnected Definition Expressed as percentage intact of swamps, bogs, nonfloodplain wetlands and other less connected systems. Trend in condition Declining. Notes on trend The condition of these unconnected or less connected waterways, such as perched wetlands for example, is poor. Impacts of continuing trend Water-quality trend is downwards and continues to worsen, species loss, loss of aquatic habitat, impacts on terrestrial species due to declining drought refugia. Drivers and threats Climate change, draining, grazing, vegetation removal, weeds, intensification of agriculture and urban development. Source: Lovett and Price (2007) Conceptual model (See Figure 58) Thresholds known or suspected Known Nil. 40 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Strongly suspected 1) Physical integrity of wetlands remains (intact geomorphology). 2) Draining. 3) Cropping (species loss and changes in species composition as well as changed morphology and water regime). Controlling variables Land-use regime (draining, cropping and grazing), geomorphology, local flows and surface-water quantity. Figure 58: Interactions between living and non-living parts of a wetland ecosystem Soure: Water and Rivers Commission (2001) 41 2. Biodiversity NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 2.8 Biodiversity asset – groundwater-dependent ecosystems 2. Biodiversity is expected that, in parts of the catchment, the decline will continue due to ongoing depletion of groundwater systems. Where groundwater remains available to groundwater-dependent vegetation communities, these are expected to show greater resilience to climate change impacts because they are not solely reliant on surfacewater availability. Definition Expressed as percentage intact of ecosystems that are dependent on groundwater. Drivers and threats Climate change, groundwater extraction rates, decline in groundwater quality, grazing, vegetation removal, weeds, intensification of agriculture and urban development. Trend in condition Unknown or declining. Notes on trend Conceptual model The condition of groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) is thought to be poor in many parts of the catchment. (See Figures 59–64) Rooting depth of Australian vegetation species (See Figure 65) Of the seven types of GDEs listed within Serov et al. 2012 there are six types identified within the Namoi CMA area. These include (and are listed in order of occurrence and an estimated percentage): Work currently underway by the NSW Office of Water (in prep) has found that groundwater within 1–8 m for groundwater-dependent woody ecosystems identifies highly likely GDEs where there is a depth to groundwater in the range of 0–8 m, and a frequency of use of 9–10 years out of 10. • Phreatophytes – groundwater-dependent terrestrial ecosystems supporting terrestrial vegetation and associated terrestrial vertebrates and invertebrate (Common, >50%); • Subsurface phreatic aquifer ecosystems supporting stygofauna (Common, >50%); • Base-flow streams (surface water ecosystems) supporting aquatic vertebrate and macroinvertebrates) (Sparse, 10–20%); • Base-flow stream (hyporheic or subsurface water ecosystems) supporting hyporheic fauna, stygofauna and riparian vegetation (Sparse, <10%); • Groundwater-dependent wetlands supporting surface aquatic vegetation, aquatic vertebrates and invertebrates (Rare, <5%); • Karst and caves supporting both aquatic stygofauna and terrestrial Troglofauna (Rare, <1%). Recent analysis undertaken by Serov (2013) has shown that a 10 m depth to groundwater threshold is more appropriate for the Namoi Catchment’s woody groundwater-dependent ecosystems, based on rooting depths of plants and mapping of vegetation communities. This builds on a literature review (Environmental Evidence Australia 2012) and a range of discussions with local experts and communities, which also suggested that the range of rooting depths of plant communities in the Namoi Catchment meant that a 30 m depth to groundwater threshold for GDEs as initially proposed in 2010 was not appropriate for the catchment. Thresholds known or suspected Extract from Serov 2013. Known Groundwater levels do not fall below the level that can be reached based on rooting depth of plants and capillary action in the soil. The most important GDEs for the Namoi as a functioning social-ecological system, based on the conceptual model of system function and the predominance of GDE type, are therefore the woody vegetation phreatophytes. Strongly suspected 1) Groundwater levels do not drop below the rooting depth of groundwater-dependent vegetation ecosystems. 2) Groundwater within 10 m of soil surface where terrestrial groundwater-dependent woody vegetation communities occur (i.e. within rooting depth of the critical species such as red gum and coolibah). 3) Groundwater within 1 m of soil surface where wetland groundwater dependent ecosystems occur (based on rooting depth of wetland plant species). Recent work underway by the NSW Office of Water (in prep) confirms that 1–8 m depth to groundwater is the most important threshold for woody groundwaterdependent ecosystems. Further details are given below. Impacts of continuing trend Possibility of species and ecosystem extinctions. Secondary wave of extinctions possible due to complexity of interspecies interactions being poorly understood. It 42 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 4) Groundwater within 3 m of groundwater-dependent riparian vegetation communities (i.e. within the rooting depth of critical riparian species such as casuarina). 5) Value of 0–8 m the highest priority range for depth to groundwater for groundwater-dependent woody vegetation communities 2. Biodiversity Figure 61: Conceptual model of lower River Murray deep-soil water-recharge mechanisms that are important for floodplain vegetation Controlling variables Groundwater extraction, groundwater recharge rates, changes to the hydrology, groundwater quality. Figure 59: Illustration of how subsurface groundwaterdependent ecosystems (SCDEs) are linked through ecotones (seen as the shaded areas) to other ecosystems Source: Holland et al (2006) Figure 62: Common river base-flow system in a typical catchment Source: Tomlinson and Boulton (2008) Source: Boulton and Hancock (2006) Figure 60: Groundwater-dependent ecosystems in a hypothetical region Source: Murray et al (2006) 43 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 63: Relationship between vegetation and groundwater 2. Biodiversity Figure 64: Rooting depth of Australian vegetation species Source: Serov (2013) Figure 65: Conceptual model from showing the factors influencing the biotic composition of subsurface groundwater-dependent ecosystems Source: Tomlinson and Boulton (2008) Source: Hatton and Evans (1998) 44 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 2.9 Climate change as a driver 2. Biodiversity Further work is currently underway to review the latest data and modelling with regard to predicted impacts of climate change, along with potential mitigation and adaptation options to inform the next iteration of natural resource plans for the region. The NSW Government Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water has recently compiled more detailed projections of the impacts and hazards of climate change on a regional basis. 2.10 What does all this mean? Projections for impacts on biodiversity assets are sobering. Generally, it can be expected that higher altitude forests such as those found at Mt Kaputar and on the Liverpool Ranges are likely to contract significantly. Climate change will increase the pressure on species and ecosystems that are already stressed due to fragmentation. Heat and dryness will impact on species and lead to structure and species changes in ecosystems. Increased fire frequencies will also lead to changes in the structure and species found in ecosystems. Biodiversity plays a critical function within the catchment, providing the productivity that agriculture depends on, clean air, clean water, tourism opportunity and an important sense of place and wellbeing to people. Some asset types are able to be assessed to determine status, thresholds and trends, whereas others are more difficult to assess, because information is not readily available. On the basis of the resilience assessment undertaken, it would appear that total woody vegetation cover and intact native vegetation communities are the most critical assets for biodiversity, followed by large areas of conserved habitat, connected waterways and regional landscape connectivity, as shown by the conceptual model presented in Figure 1. The highly fragmented grasslands and grassy woodlands on the western slopes are considered to be particularly vulnerable to increased degradation due to changed rainfall patterns and increases in temperature. Many species will disappear from these ecosystems, leaving them much simplified. Evidence strongly suggests that preventing a trajectory in woody vegetation loss from crossing the 70% cleared threshold as critical to maintaining biodiversity assets in the catchment. Species loss occurs as the vegetation cover is reduced from 100% to 30%, but the rate of loss increases exponentially after woody vegetation cover reduces below the 70% and 30% thresholds. Thus, a threshold that maintains 30% of woody vegetation cover is important for more cleared areas in order to avoid further loss of biodiversity. A threshold that maintains those areas that retain 70% or more of their woody vegetation cover is also considered important, because these areas are likely to maintain most of their biodiversity. As previously mentioned, higher altitude forests are likely to be particularly sensitive to increases in temperature and the associated changes in available moisture. A radical change in the species composition of these areas is probably causing a marked reduction in the range limits of the original ecosystem. Wetlands are also likely to be heavily affected by increased temperature, increased fire frequency and changes in water regimes. Fauna species such as koalas, flying foxes and cave-dwelling bats are likely to be affected by high temperature extremes, resulting in heat stress and deaths of individual animals and in some cases whole colonies. A third critical threshold has been defined as a percentage of ecosystem types at or above 30% of their original extent. This threshold is an attempt to capture the diversity of ecosystem type rather than just the amount of woody vegetation. No information was available in the scientific literature that helped to establish the number or percentage of ecosystems that need to remain intact for overall maintenance of biodiversity. Therefore, a preliminary figure of 61% of ecosystem types at 30% original extent was carried forward into the Namoi CAP. This is because, based on the 2010 mapping, 61% of RVCs found in the Namoi have not yet crossed below the 30% extent remaining threshold. RVCs include both woody and nonwoody vegetation types (e.g. grasslands and wetlands). As part of the 2013 update of the Namoi CAP, this threshold has been retained, but for clarity re-expressed as ‘regional vegetation communities maintain over 30% extent remaining’. In the western parts of the catchment, the combination of increased temperatures, greater extremes, improved conditions for pests and weeds, and large wildfires are expected to affect ecosystems to the point where some species are likely to be lost from the region altogether. Species likely to face increased extinction risks include bats and koalas, due to their vulnerability to heat stress and death over long hot spells. A dramatic decline is likely in some places. GDEs are considered to be critical for biodiversity, because vegetation communities with access to groundwater are considered to be more resilient in the face of climate change impacts. This also has implications for ongoing vegetation management and restoration, for both biodiversity conservation and for climate change mitigation through bio-sequestration activities. Native vegetation extent, condition and configuration are all important in relation to maintaining biodiversity. Based on the resilience assessment undertaken, and 45 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 the available research, extent has by far the greatest influence, with condition and configuration reliant on having native vegetation present in the landscape in the first place. Thus, the critical threshold of extent is carried forward as a target in the CAP. Condition is also seen as important in relation to biodiversity, and is thus identified as part of the actions involving maintenance of all RVCs under several targets. 2. Biodiversity Beeton R.J.S., Buckley K.I., Jones G.J., Morgan D., Reichelt R.E. and Trewin D. (2006). Australian State of the Environment Committee (2006). Independent report to the Australian Government Minister for the Environment and Heritage, Canberra. Available at <http://www. environment.gov.au/soe/index.html>. Bennett A.F., Radford J.Q. and Haslem A. (2006). Properties of land mosaics: Implications for nature conservation in agricultural environments. Biological Conservation, 133, 250–264. Thresholds for threatened species, populations and communities will need to be identified for each individual entity, and will most probably relate to the population size or extent of a species, population or community, and the habitat area for a species or population. Botanical Gardens NSW (2009). Ecosystem Characteristics – Liverpool Plains Grasslands. Report prepared for Namoi Catchment Management Authority. Botanical Gardens NSW, Sydney Invasive species are an important driver of change to biodiversity assets, and thresholds have been identified that relate to the presence of individual invasive species and population extent of invasive species. Thus, the priorities in the CAP are based on preventing incursions of new species into the Namoi Catchment, and eradicating newly established or emerging invasive species before they become established. These are the key priorities in relation to invasive species. Targeting established or widespread invasive species is only considered a priority where they are the critical threat to an important biodiversity asset (e.g. a threatened species or endangered ecological community) and control is feasible. Boulton A.J. and Hancock P.J. (2006). Rivers as groundwater dependent ecosystems: a review of degrees of dependency, riverine processes and management implications. Australian Journal of Botany, 54, 133–144. Brownlow M.D., Sparrow A.D. and Ganf G.G. (1994). Classification of water regime in systems of fluctuating water level. Australian Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research, 45, 1375–1385. Burgess S., Pate J.S., Adams M.A. and Dawson T.E. (2000). Seasonal water acquisition and redistribution in the Australian woody phreatophyte, Banksia prionotes. Annals of Botany, 85, 215–224. Burrows G.E. (2000). 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Biodiversity Wilson B.R., Growns I. and Lemon J. (2007). Scattered native trees and soil patterns in grazing lands of the Northern Tablelands of NSW, Australia. Australian Journal of Soil Research, 45(3), 199–205. Yates C. and Hobbs R. (1997). Temperate eucalypt woodlands: a review of their status, processes threatening their persistence and techniques for restoration. Australian Journal of Botany, 45, 949–973. Xu G.-Q. and Li Y. (2008). Rooting depth and leaf hydraulic conductance in the xeric tree Haloxyolon ammodendron growing at sites of contrasting soil texture. Functional Plant Biology, 35, 1234–1242. Zencich S.J., Froend R.H., Turner J.T. and Gailitis V. (2002). Influence of groundwater depth on the seasonal sources of water accessed by Banksia tree species on a shallow, sandy coastal aquifer. Oecologia, 131, 8–19. 52 3. Land NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 3. Land Land is defined as ‘healthy soils and functional landscapes that are managed in a way that maintains optimal choices for future generations’. Figure 66: Functions of healthy soils An expert workshop was run in 2010 with a mixture of soils science, biodiversity, salinity and agricultural expertise. It was decided that land management units (LMUs; based on soils, topography and some hydrogeology) were an appropriate scale and asset for consideration in a resilience assessment, as LMUs allow the application of appropriate management options at both property and landscape scales to deliver catchment outcomes. Given there is no conceptual model that can meaningfully consider (without going to geological time scales) how LMUs interact with one another, the conceptual models presented here show the underpinning nature of soils in the catchment and how the interactions of soil functions contribute to healthy soils, which are considered the overall asset in this theme. Nutrient & food availability for plants and fauna Source: DPI Victoria http://www.dpi.vic.gov/dpi/vro/vrosite.nsf/ pages/soilhealth_what_is Figure 67: Conceptual model – contribution of soil elements to overall health; an arrow means that the ‘arrow from’ asset contributes to the ‘arrow to’ asset Soil organic matter absorbs moisture Water holding capacity Allows water infiltration Plants & micro-fauna activity Organic matter Decreases bulk density & increases aggregate stability Ability to produce biomass Biological processes require water Nutrients released Increases soil organic matter Porosity & Aggregate stability Clays & Soil organic matter Biological function Availability of air & water Soil structure Soil type Nutrient cycling Structure for storage & basis of carbon Improved plant Improves growth increases structure soil organic matter Stability for porosity Nutrient availability Structure for storage & ability to create soil organic matter Ability to develop & maintain porosity Increases soil organic matter Increased availability of water & air Decomposition releases significant nutrients Carbon storage Increase air & water enhances plant growth Permeability 54 Increases plant growth & soil organic matter Increases nutrient availability Porosity, water & root infiltration increase Structure & nutrient Increased plant availabiltiy growth increases soil organic matter Disperson & slaking properties Increases plant Growth & cycling of nutrients Increases water infiltration NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 3. Land change and, consequently, thresholds. These soils are important contributors to the functions of the catchment by providing the ecosystem services as illustrated in Figure 67. For full detailed descriptions of each LMU see Appendix G. Figure 68: Median groundcover levels across the Namoi Catchment in 2011 Figure 68 above presents the median results of the catchment and sub-catchment-scale monitoring of groundcover levels across the Namoi Catchment over the course of a full year. This shows the median groundcover levels across the catchment, based on data gathered remotely for each season of the year and aggregated into an annual figure. It should be noted that 2011 was a particularly wet year, so the groundcover levels were higher than had been observed during previous, drier, years as a result Further monitoring, evidence and analysis has been undertaken since 2010, when this assessment was first completed. The 2013 update includes the results of further literature review, consultation with experts, and research specifically to inform this assessment, as prioritised in the Namoi CAP or as part of ongoing monitoring and evaluation undertaken. A detailed breakdown of groundcover percentages by LMU and by sub-catchment for 2011 is available from Namoi CMA on request. 3.1 Soils asset – Liverpool Plains Red Earths This conceptual model, presented in Figure 67 above, has been drafted by the authors, and as such should not be considered a position of certainty. It is intended to start the debate about how healthy soils ‘work’ in the catchment. This model suggests that soil type, soil structure and organic matter are the key contributors to soil health. As soil type is a given in most instances, soil structure and organic matter are the key underpinning functions that are subject to intervention. It should be noted that thinking about critical function leads to a slightly different focus than the commonly held views about soil value to agriculture, which focus on soil type, depth and water-holding capacity. Thus, retaining and managing groundcover is a critical issue for sustaining soils and landscapes given the impact groundcover has on soil organic matter, soil carbon, soil structure, soil water-holding capacity, soil permeability and nutrient cycling. Definition This asset was defined by the expert workshops as Liverpool Plains Red Earths, and consists of red and brown kandosols, chromosols and dermosols. A more thorough description is available from the Namoi CMA description of LMUs (Appendix G). This description is as follows: Sedimentary Footslopes (C) – Sedimentary slopes and colluvial fans of generally 2–8% occur as the transition zone from the hills to the floodplain. This LMU has a land capability classification of 4–6, and land use is predominantly pasture or improved pasture with up to 15% of the unit still used for dryland cropping. Forestry and nature reserves occupy a large amount of this LMU. The soils are predominantly deep red earths, red-brown earths and solodic soils. They are generally of moderate fertility, low to moderate water-holding capacity, and moderately to highly erodible. Shallow water tables (>5m) can occur, particularly in the Liverpool Plains, but have also been recorded in the Maules Creek, Narrabri and Upper Manilla districts. Salinity varies with location. The first part of this assessment relies on information from the chapter on soil condition generated by the Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, in the draft NSW State of the Catchment Report. This approach was agreed to by the expert workshop participants in 2010. Trend in condition Current state is good, with a slight loss of soil function. Trend is stable in relation to sheet erosion, declining in organic carbon and structure. Those LMUs not covered by the DECCW Soil Condition Monitoring Process have less concise information regarding trends, drivers and thresholds. For this reason, those that have a particular importance from a functional perspective have been identified and discussed in brief. The remainder have been clumped together as a category termed ‘Other soils, general’. This is not intended to disregard the importance of these soil types, but is an indication of the paucity of empirical evidence that can be given regarding trends in conditions and drivers of Notes on trend Erosion trend has stopped due to changed land management practice. Much of the land has returned to grazing rather than cropping, as it proved less productive than the adjacent black soils. These shifts in land management occurred during the 1960s. 55 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Impacts of continuing trend 3. Land Notes on trend Not relevant – trend is mostly stable. Trend information from the State of the Catchment Report is more positive about current condition than the description in Namoi CMA LMU descriptions. Drivers and threats Historical sheet erosion – significant loss of soils function – considerable deterioration against reference condition. Highest current pressure is organic carbon and structural decline. A lot of area grazed beyond its current capability. Primary threat remains as sheet erosion. Impacts of continuing trend Not relevant if trend is stable. Drivers and threats Sheet erosion primary threat. Conceptual model Conceptual model Nil relevant at this scale. Nil relevant to this scale. Thresholds known or suspected Thresholds known or suspected Known Known Nil. Nil. Strongly suspected Strongly suspected 1) 70% groundcover. 2) Rainfall intensity exceeds soil infiltration capacity. 3) Rainfall amount exceeds soil storage capacity. 1) 70% groundcover. 2) Rainfall intensity exceeds soil infiltration capacity. 3) Rainfall amount exceeds soil storage capacity. Controlling variables Controlling variables Percentage groundcover, rainfall, run-off amount and velocity. Percentage groundcover, rainfall, run-off amount and velocity. 3.2 Soils asset – Duri Hills 3.3 Soils asset – Recent Western Floodplains Definition Defined by the expert workshop as consisting of red chromosols, cropping and grazing. Defined by Namoi CMA LMUs thus: Definition Defined by the expert workshop as Doreen Plain, consistent with information presented in the Soil Condition section of the Draft State of the Catchments Report (DECCW in prep), and consisting of brown and grey vertosols. Described by Namoi CMA Land Management Unit Descriptions thus: Duri Hills (M) – The Duri Hills form the generally low undulating hills between the New England Tablelands and the Liverpool Plains sections of the Namoi Catchment. Soil type is generally red-brown earths or non-calcic brown soils, with minor euchrozems and solodic soils. This LMU is thought to have been stripped of soil several times during its formation and, as such, soil depth is generally less than 1.5 m. The limitation of soil depth and soil type has resulted in a low capacity for moisture storage within the soils for cropping. Land capability within this LMU is generally 4–6. The area is dominated by a mosaic of winter cereal cropping and grazing on both native and improved pastures. The northern parts of this LMU have been cropped intensively in the past and are characterised by extensive sheet, rill and gully erosion, with minor wind erosion. The exposed subsoils that are common in the northern parts of this LMU are often mildly to moderately sodic, and difficult to reestablish pastures on. Recent Western Floodplains (E1) – This LMU includes the recent floodplains along the current course of the Namoi River and Pian Creek within the Darling Riverine Plains section of the catchment west of Narrabri. The LMU consists of modern inset meander plains and backplains and is generally dominated by very deep grey clays and minor black earths, with relatively low stored salt content. These soils represent the most productive soils for agriculture in the Darling Riverine Plains section of the Namoi Catchment. High quality groundwater is common under this landscape in deep gravels. Land use includes grazing on native or improved pastures within the high flood areas, but is dominated by broad acre dryland and irrigated cropping systems. Flooding is a common feature of this LMU, and the low elevation areas of the unit are limited for agriculture by frequency of inundation. Land capability ranges from 2–5, depending on flood frequency. Trend in condition Condition is reported as good, with a slight loss of soil function, and stable. 56 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 This LMU is highly productive in its association with high quality water resources for irrigation, and is likely to be a key contributor to economic function in the catchment. 3. Land brown clays. Subsoil salt contents are relatively high, which can cause problems when crops forage into the subsoil. Dryland and irrigated cropping are the main land uses of this LMU, although there is a higher proportion of grazing than with LMU E1. Groundwater access is less frequent in this LMU and, as a result, opportunities have been lower to develop groundwater for irrigation, although surface water is available in proximity to the Namoi River and Pian Creek. Trend in condition Condition is reported in the Draft State of the Catchments Report as good, with only a slight loss in soil function. The trend is reportedly up, with soil condition improving. Notes on trend Trend in condition It should be noted that there was a low level of confidence in trend results. Not relevant, as trending upwards. Condition is reported in the State of the Catchments Report (NSW Gov 2010) as good, with only a slight loss of soil function. The trend is reportedly up, with soil condition improving or stable. Drivers and threats Notes on trend Impacts of continuing trend Major continuing threat is that of wind erosion. It should be noted that there is a low level of confidence in trend information. Conceptual model Impacts of continuing trend None relevant at this scale. Not relevant, as trend is reported as upwards or stable. Thresholds known or suspected Drivers and threats Known Wind erosion is considered an ongoing threat to the Cryon Plain. Threats to the Come-by-Chance Plain are organic carbon decline and soil structural decline. Nil. Strongly suspected Conceptual model 1) 70% groundcover. 2) Soil particle size <0.9mm. None relevant at this scale. Controlling variables Thresholds known or suspected Percentage groundcover, wind. Known 3.4 Soils asset – High Western Floodplains Nil. Strongly suspected 1) 70% groundcover. 2) Soil particle size <0.9mm. 3) Organic carbon 0.6% or better. At 0.6% the lack of carbon begins to limit the function of soils aggregate stability (structure), buffering capacity and waterholding capacity. 4) Bulk density thresholds depend on texture, but 1.4t/ m3 is considered an average value that is acceptable. 5) Exchangeable sodium percentage at 3% means there is no limitation on soil health associated with sodicity. Above 3%, sodicity begins to affect plant growth and management. This is potentially a linear non-return change rather than a threshold, however. Definition Defined by the expert workshop as Cryon Plain and Come-by-Chance Plain, consistent with information presented in the Soil Condition section of the State of the Catchments Report (NSW Gov 2010). The Cryon Plain consists of crusty grey and brown vertosols, and the Come-by-Chance Plain of brown chromosols and yellow sodosols. Described by Namoi CMA Land Management Unit Descriptions thus: High Western Floodplains (E2) – This LMU is characterised by a much lower flood frequency than the Recent Western Floodplains (LUM E1) within the Darling Riverine Plains section of the Namoi Catchment west of Narrabri. The High Western Floodplains are generally dominated by backplains which are an admixture of older alluvium and modern alluvium from infrequent flooding. This LMU is dominated by grey clays, with minor occurrences of Controlling variables Percentage groundcover, wind, biomass per cent, soil carbon per cent, rainfall, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, run-off amount and velocity. 57 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 3.5 Soils asset – Central Black Earth Floodplains 3. Land Thresholds known or suspected Known Nil. Definition Defined by the expert workshop as Liverpool Black Plains, consistent with information presented in the Soil Condition section of the Draft State of the Catchments Report and consisting of self-mulching black vertosols. Described by Namoi CMA Land Management Unit Descriptions thus: Strongly suspected 1) ECe in soil at 4–8 dS/m moderately saline – at this level, crop production in sensitive species is affected and crop options may be reduced. Controlling variables Rainfall, soil moisture, evapotranspiration. Central Black Earth Floodplains (E) – Black Earth Floodplains exist in association with the major rivers and creeks in the central part of the catchment (Liverpool Plains to Narrabri). This land management unit (LMU E) has a land capability classification of 2, 7 or 8. Floodways are where a channel may leave the river, meander, and rejoin steams. The floodplain is that area with a slope of generally <2%, is dominated by very extensive backplains, with minor swamp and outwash areas. Soils include deep black earths, brown or grey clays and some earthy sands. Some floodways are farmed, others are managed as pasture and some retain native vegetation of grasses, understorey, River Red Gum, Myall and Grey, Yellow or Bimble Box. The floodplain is intensively farmed and largely cleared of vegetation. This LMU is a dynamic environment and subject to inundation and severe erosion. Shallow saline groundwaters can be locally extensive in this LMU, particularly in the Goran Basin and at the LMU’s upper reaches. Deep fresh irrigation aquifers are found beneath this LMU where the alluvium sits on a coarse gravel fill over basement material. Most of this LMU is used for cropping (with significant irrigation areas), with a minor portion used for grazing on native and improved pastures. 3.6 Soils asset – Colluvial Black Earths Definition Defined by the expert workshop as Liverpool Black Footslopes, consistent with information presented in the Soil Condition section of the Draft State of the Catchments Report, and consisting of black vertosols. Described by Namoi CMA Land Management Unit Descriptions thus: Colluvial Black Earths (G) – A dominant feature of the central part of the Namoi Catchment is the alluvial plains and slopes between 2–8% that have been predominantly derived from volcanic geological material. This land management unit (LMU G) has a land capability classification of 2–4 and the soils are predominantly black earths with >200cm depth and reducing in depth as the slope increases. There is a range of other alluvial soils present, depending on the parent material contributing to the outwash plains. Land use is mainly summer and winter annual cropping on land up to 5% slope with increasing grazing on lands above 5%. Some localised low slope areas are irrigated for cropping. The long slope areas in this LMU are subject to severe erosion by runoff from above. Shallow saline water tables occur on the lower slopes approaching the footslope plain junction, and in some areas where underlying rock benches push localised groundwater to the surface. This LMU is highly productive in its association with high quality water resources for irrigation, and likely to be a key contributor to economic function in the catchment. Trend in condition Condition is reported in the State of the Catchments Report as good, with only a slight loss of soil function. The trend is reportedly up, with soil condition improving. Trend in condition Notes on trend It should be noted that confidence in trend data is low. Condition is reported in the Draft State of the Catchments Report as good, with only a slight loss of soil function. The trend is reportedly up, with soil condition improving. Impacts of continuing trend Notes on trend Not relevant, as trend is reported as upwards. It should be noted that confidence in trend data is low. Drivers and threats Impacts of continuing trend Soil salinity from hyperwetting of soils under irrigation regimes and shallow saline groundwaters. Not relevant, as trend is reported as upwards. Drivers and threats Conceptual model Soil salinity from shallow saline groundwaters as stated in the Land Management Unit Description. Sheet erosion. None relevant at this scale. 58 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Conceptual model 3. Land This LMU is highly productive in its association with high quality water resources for irrigation and likely to be a key contributor to economic function in the catchment. None relevant at this scale. Thresholds known or suspected Trend in condition Known Condition of Burbagate Alluvials is reported in the Draft State of the Catchments Report as good, with only a slight loss of soil function. The trend is reportedly up, with soil condition improving. Nil. Strongly suspected 1) ECe in soil at 4–8 dS/m moderately saline – at this level crop production in sensitive species is affected and crop options may be reduced. 2) 70% groundcover. 3) Rainfall intensity exceeds soil infiltration capacity. 4) Rainfall amount exceeds soil storage capacity. Condition of the Maules Creek Valley Floor is reported as being only fair with a noticeable loss of soil function. The trend is considered to be stable. Notes on trend It should be noted that confidence in trend data is low. Controlling variables Rainfall, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, per cent groundcover, run-off amount and velocity. Impacts of continuing trend 3.7 Soils asset – Central Mixed Soil Floodplains Drivers and threats Definition Conceptual model Not relevant, as trend is reported as stable or upwards. Burbagate Alluvials – organic carbon decline; Maules Creek Valley Floor – sheet erosion. Defined by the expert workshop as Burbagate Alluvials and Maules Creek Valley Floor, consistent with information presented in the Soil Condition section of the Draft State of the Catchments Report. Burbagate Alluvials consist of brown vertosols and brown chromosols. It should be noted that the Burbagate Alluvials description also applies to part of the Central Black Earth Floodplains already discussed previously. The Maules Creek Valley Floor consists of tenosols, chromosols and sodosols. Described by Namoi CMA Land Management Unit Descriptions thus: None relevant at this scale. Thresholds known or suspected Known Nil. Strongly suspected 1) Organic carbon 0.6% or better. At 0.6%, the lack of carbon begins to limit the function of soils aggregate stability (structure), buffering capacity and waterholding capacity. 2) 70% groundcover. 3) Rainfall intensity exceeds soil infiltration capacity. 4) Rainfall amount exceeds soil storage capacity. Central Mixed Soil Floodplains (F) – There are also substantial plain areas of the central catchment (from the Liverpool Plains to Narrabri) that are of very low slope (0–2%), which are dominated by a mixture of alluvial soils. This LMU is dominated by very extensive meander plains (which are generally slightly higher in the plain landscape). This land management unit (LMU F) has a land capability classification range of 2–7 and the soils are highly variable with black earths, brown and grey clays, and red-brown earths with minor chernozems and hard-setting duplex soils, depending on the parent material contributing to the alluvium. Localised extensive shallow saline groundwater is generally not a feature of this LMU, however deep fresh irrigation aquifers are found beneath this LMU where the alluvium sits on a coarse gravel fill over basement material. Recharge is generally thought to be from surface streams that have gravel beds and are well connected to the underlying aquifers. Land use is a mosaic of cropping and grazing on native or improved pastures, which is largely determined by the fertility and tilth of the soil. Controlling variables Biomass percentage, groundcover, soil carbon percentage, rainfall, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, run-off amount and velocity. 3.8 Soils asset – Flat Pilliga Outwash Definition Defined by the expert workshop as Pilliga Outwash, consistent with information presented in the Soil Condition section of the Draft State of the Catchments Report, and consisting of sodosols. Described by Namoi CMA Land Management Unit Descriptions thus: 59 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 3. Land 3.9 Soils asset – Sedimentary hilltops and slopes Flat Pilliga Outwash (F2) – This LMU dominates the central and north western sections of the Pilliga Outwash. The area is dominated by deep solodic soils with sandy to loamy sand topsoils, earthy sands, and siliceous sands. Hard-setting, saline and often highly sodic clay soils (grey, brown and red clays) occur at the terminal northern end of the Pilliga Outwash, where it meets the Darling Riverine Plains. Red earths and redbrown earths are common along the western margin of this LMU. These northern areas tend to be prone to severe scalding and sheet erosion. Land capability is generally greater than 5, though some isolated areas with higher rainfall occur in the western margins of this unit where the land is Class 4. Land use is diverse, but is dominated by forestry and nature reserves, with grazing the most common use of cleared lands. Some winter cereal cropping occurs in the western portions of this LMU on the red earths. Definition Described by Namoi CMA Land Management Unit Descriptions thus: Sedimentary Hilltops and Slopes (A): These are generally sandstone or metamorphic rock based on, or in some cases with a thin capping of, basalt. This grouping includes some small areas of acid volcanics. This land management unit (LMU A) has a land capability classification of 4 or 5 on the hill tops and 6, 7 or 8 on slopes depending on steepness and soil depth. Sedimentary slopes of greater than 15% occur around the perimeter of the catchment and in the central parts. The soils are shallow lithosols and skeletal red-brown earths, plus some rocky outcrops or cliffs. The soils generally have high infiltration with low water holding capabilities, except for some better textured soils derived from the basalt occurrences. There are no watertable problems and salinity is only a problem where marine sediments occur within the bedrock. While the topography of the hilltops can be flat to gently undulating, physical access to these areas (through the steep slopes) and lack of water limit the grazing potential. Trend in condition Condition is reported in the Draft State of the Catchments Report as fair, with noticeable loss of soil function. The trend is reportedly stable. Notes on trend Expert workshop also believed the trend to be stable. Impacts of continuing trend Not relevant, as trend is reported as stable. With high infiltration and low water-holding capacity, this LMU may be important to groundwater recharge. Drivers and threats Trend in condition Soil structural decline. No trend noted. Conceptual model Notes on trend None relevant at this scale. Nil. Thresholds known or suspected Impacts of continuing trend Nil. Known Drivers and threats Nil. Nil. Strongly suspected Conceptual model 1) Bulk density thresholds depend on texture, but 1.4t/ m3 is considered an average value that is acceptable. 2) Exchangeable sodium percentage at 3% means there is no limitation on soil health associated with sodicity. Above 3%, sodicity begins to affect plant growth and management. It is potentially a linear non-return change, rather than a threshold, however. 3) Soil organic carbon at 0.6% or better is sufficient to ensure that soil structure is not affected. None relevant at this scale. Thresholds known or suspected Known Nil. Strongly suspected 1) Bulk density thresholds depend on texture, but 1.4t/ m3 is considered an average value that is acceptable. 2) Exchangeable sodium percentage at 3% means there is no limitation on soil health associated with sodicity. Above 3%, sodicity begins to affect plant growth and management. This is potentially a linear non-return change, rather than a threshold, however. 3) Soil organic carbon at 0.6% or better is sufficient to ensure that soil structure is not affected. Controlling variables Biomass per cent, groundcover, soil carbon per cent. 60 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 3. Land Strongly suspected These thresholds are those most likely to impact on soil permeability and water infiltration, therefore compromising the LMU’s potential function as a recharge area. Nil. Controlling variables Controlling variables Nil. Biomass per cent, groundcover, soil carbon per cent. 3.11 Soils asset – Riparian Corridor 3.10 Soils asset – Peel Floodplain Definition Definition Described by Namoi CMA Land Management Unit Descriptions thus: Described by Namoi CMA Land Management Unit Descriptions thus: The Riparian Corridor land management unit (LMU D) is generally defined as a 20 metres wide buffer from each stream bank and has a land capability classification of 7. This LMU transects most other LMUs depending on watercourse location and activity throughout the catchment. Soil types vary depending on the base geology of the area and local sedimentation to include brown or grey clays, black earths, red-brown earths and earthy sands. The Riparian Corridor is dynamic with many geomorphological zones, such as terraces and steep banks interacting with frequent flooding and water level changes. It can also be undulating, with unstable soils and a predominance of River Red Gum communities, many of which are mature, and some Belah communities. Stability of this region is important for water quality and biodiversity. In the upper areas of the catchment (and some lower areas), clearing of this LMU has occurred for cropping and improved pasture with most of the native pasture or forested streambanks being in steeper regions of sub-catchments. The Peel Floodplain forms the main drainage for the Duri Hills, in the eastern and central Tamworth Fold Belt section of the Namoi Catchment. This confined LMU is dominated by very high quality chernozems, which are highly utilised for cropping, intensive pasture production, and a range of horticultural and grazing enterprises, including dairying. High quality groundwater is common within this LMU, but the resource is thought to be highly stressed, owing to over allocation of the resource and the increasing demands placed on it by the city of Tamworth. Land Capability is generally Class 1 or 2, which makes this the highest value LMU within the Namoi Catchment. Although this is the highest value LMU within the catchment, it is only present in a confined area. It is likely to be an important economic contributor to the catchment with its association with high quality groundwater. It is also important from a social and economic perspective as it provides high quality feed to the Tamworth equine industry, which is currently being promoted as a source of economic and industry diversification within the Tamworth area. This LMU is important to water quality and biodiversity. Thresholds and condition information can be sourced in the water assets section. Trend in condition 3.12 Soils asset – Upland bogs and swamps No trend noted. Notes on trend Definition Nil. Described by Namoi CMA Land Management Unit Descriptions thus: Impacts of continuing trend Nil. This peaty LMU occurs generally as small valley fills in both the New England Tablelands and the Liverpool Range sections of the Namoi Catchment. Minor occurrences are also found in the higher parts of the Nandewar and Warrumbungle Ranges. The unit is much more extensive than could be represented on the catchment maps, mostly due to their confined and narrow, linear nature. These areas are highly significant in that they hold large amounts of water, and gradually release it into the upper reaches of streams and rivers of the catchment. Land use is generally light grazing or nature reserve, although many of the Tablelands swamps Drivers and threats Nil. Conceptual model None relevant at this scale. Thresholds known or suspected Known Nil. 61 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 3. Land Thresholds known or suspected have been drained for grazing purposes. Once drained, this LMU ceases to function as a long-term water supply to downstream drainage lines. Known Nil. Upland bogs and swamps are very significant to hydrological balance in the catchment due to their waterholding capacity and contribution to the base flow of rivers and streams. Strongly suspected 1) Bulk density thresholds depend on texture, but 1.4t/ m3 is considered an average value that is acceptable. 2) Exchangeable sodium percentage at 3% means there is no limitation on soil health associated with sodicity. Above 3%, sodicity begins to affect plant growth and management. It is potentially a linear non-return change, rather than a threshold, however. 3) Soil organic carbon at 0.6% or better is sufficient to ensure that soil structure is not affected. Thresholds and condition information can be sourced in the Water Assets section of this document, but it should be noted that two thresholds apply. 1) Drainage. 2) Cutting-out or eroding, so that water-holding capacity is destroyed. These thresholds are those most likely to impact on soil permeability and water infiltration, therefore compromising the LMUs function as a recharge area. 3.13 Soils asset – Basaltic Slopes and Hills Controlling variables Definition Biomass per cent, groundcover, soil carbon per cent. Described by Namoi CMA Land Management Unit Descriptions thus: 3.14 Soils asset – Steep Basaltic Hills Basalt Slopes (8–20%) occur flanking the southern edge of the Liverpool Plains Sub-Catchment with some occurrences associated with the Garrawilla, Warrumbungle and Nandewar basalts. This land management unit (LMU H) has a land capability classification of 4, 5 or 6. The soils range from black earths and prairie to brown clays, red-brown earths, with soil depth decreasing with increasing slope. Grazing is the dominant land use, but there are some areas of cropping on the lower slopes with deeper soils. This LMU is a major source of recharge into groundwater systems. Shallow water tables and salinity are a very minor problem, usually in association with basalt flow edges. Definition Described by Namoi CMA Land Management Unit Descriptions as Basalt Hills with slopes 20% occur flanking the southern edge of the Liverpool Plains Sub-Catchment with some occurrences associated with the Garrawilla, Warrumbungle and Nandewar basalts. This land management unit (LMU I) has a land capability classification of 6–8. The soils are usually shallow and range from black earths and prairie to brown clays, red-brown earths to lithosols on upper slopes and skeletal areas. There is some grazing on the lesser slopes with deeper soils in valleys or hilltops. This LMU is a source of recharge into groundwater systems. This LMU is very significant to hydrological balance in the catchment and a major source of recharge into groundwater systems. Trend in condition Basalt Hills are very significant to the hydrological balance in the catchment and a major source of recharge into groundwater systems. No trend noted. Notes on trend Trend in condition Nil. No trend noted. Impacts of continuing trend Notes on trend Nil. Nil. Drivers and threats Impacts of continuing trend Nil. Nil. Conceptual model Drivers and threats None relevant at this scale. Nil. 62 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Conceptual model 3. Land Strongly suspected None relevant at this scale. 1) Soils compaction threshold in red earths – compaction reaches a point where no water can infiltrate, which reduces opportunity for plant growth, which further exacerbates compaction. 2) Topsoil loss threshold – once topsoils are gone, so is any opportunity to return to the previous state, as seeds, eggs, spores etc. are also lost. Thresholds known or suspected Known Nil. Strongly suspected Controlling variables 1) Bulk density thresholds depend on texture, but 1.4 t/ m3 is considered an average value that is acceptable. 2) Exchangeable sodium percentage at 3% means there is no limitation on soil health associated with sodicity. Above 3%, sodicity begins to affect plant growth and management. It is potentially a linear non-return change, rather than a threshold, however. 3) Soil organic carbon at 0.6% or better is sufficient to ensure that soil structure is not affected. Biomass per cent, groundcover per cent, soil carbon per cent, bulk density, rainfall, run-off velocity and amount. 3.16 Climate change as a driver The Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water has recently compiled more detailed projections of the impacts and hazards of climate change on a regional basis. These thresholds are those most likely to impact on soil permeability and water infiltration, therefore compromising the LMU’s function as a recharge area. The projections for land assets are generally not good for the majority of the Namoi Catchment Area. Generally, it can be expected that the catchment will experience reduced vegetation cover caused by poorer growing conditions (drier soils), thus significantly exacerbating erosion risk. This risk is likely to be worsened by an increase in heavy sporadic rainfall typified by intense storm activity. Particularly vulnerable areas include the slopes and plains. The New England Tablelands may be an exception in this instance, as increased plant growth in summer is likely to alleviate the problem in some areas. Controlling variables Biomass per cent, groundcover, soil carbon per cent. 3.15 Soils asset – Other soils, general Definition Described by the expert workshops as the remainder of the LMUs not described and discussed so far. Descriptions of these LMUs are available in Appendix G: Land Management Units in the Namoi Catchment. Sodic soils are considered to be of particular concern, as they are already subject to an increased erosion risk because of their sodic nature. Sodic soils require vegetation cover to maintain and develop soils structure, and as soils dry, vegetation cover will be more difficult to maintain. Sodicity will also be exacerbated by increases in summer rainfall and the intensity of storms. Trend in condition Considered poor and trending down. Notes on trend Gully erosion is also projected to increase on the slopes and plains because of the increase in incidence of heavy downpours. Gully erosion may be less active in parts of the New England Tablelands due to reduced through-flow, seepage flow and deep drainage in winter. Expert opinion. Impacts of continuing trend Impacts on productivity and profitability of agriculture, negative impact on biodiversity, water quality and quantity. Wind erosion is likely to increase on the plains. Drivers and threats Salinity is likely to remain an issue, with projections suggesting that wetter summers and drier winters will more likely than not increase the risk of dryland salinity. Summer rainfall events will have the potential to mobilise salts, and dry winter conditions will concentrate salts. The actual effect will depend on the characteristics of particular locations. Wetting and drying cycles changing due to climate change, inappropriate land use and invasive species. Conceptual model None relevant at this scale. Thresholds known or suspected Acidification is likely to be reduced where it is a result of leaching. Land management will remain the key determinate in soil acidification. Known Nil. 63 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Further work is currently underway to review latest data and modelling with regard to predicted impacts of climate change, along with potential mitigation and adaptation options to inform the next iteration of natural resource plans for the region. 3. Land The specifics of how climate change is likely to play out across the catchment suggest the improvement and maintenance of groundcover is even more important, but may be more difficult to establish or maintain. Significant buffering established now may be critical to the future function of the catchment; therefore a focus on establishing and improving 70% or better groundcover across the entirety of the catchment is most probably the issue of overwhelming importance to the landscape function of the catchment. See also Figure 68, above. Figure 69: Priority land management units based on soil sodicity in light of climate change impacts It is possible to increase or decrease groundcover and organic matter in soils readily most of the time. A wide range of land management practices and ensuring that land is being managed within its capability can influence this. Any decrease in groundcover means that it is more likely that a threshold will be crossed that can impact on soil sodicity, soil structure, permeability or water-holding capacity. This may mean that a return to the previous state becomes impossible due to the effects on plant growth and soil biological function. For this reason, the threshold of groundcover at, or better than, 70% will be carried forward into the Catchment Area Plan, and interventions will be focused on maintenance or improvement at this level, including bringing as much of the catchment area up to at least this level. 3.17 What does all this mean? Soils play a critical role in the function of landscapes, and they underpin social activity (places to live), economic activity (providing a resource base) and environmental services such as water quantity and quality, nutrient cycling, storage of organic matter and in particular carbon, and a physical substrate for plant growth. There is no asset in the Namoi Catchment that can be considered to be independent of the benefits of healthy soils. Groundcover levels across all seasons were assessed in 2011. The research shows that based on the median groundcover levels through a whole year, for non-crop areas the total median groundcover was above 80%; for crop areas it was between 73% and 78%. It should be noted that 2011 was a particularly good season, so groundcover levels overall were relatively high as a result. There was significant seasonal and site scale variation, with the lowest levels occurring during winter on cropped country. Detailed information on soil type, condition and thresholds seems to support the conceptual model result in Figure 67, in that it is soil structure and organic matter that play a critical role in underpinning soil health in the catchment. Overwhelming evidence seems to point to maintenance or improvement of groundcover as being an intervention that would have significant outputs in relation to soil organic matter, soil carbon, soil structure, soil water-holding capacity, soil permeability and nutrient cycling. Groundcover is taken to mean anything that covers the ground, not just living plants. Rocks, gravel, leaf litter, logs etc. can contribute many of the same functions as living plants in relation to soil health. The big sleeper in terms of issues that may rear their heads and act as a major shock to the system of the catchment, is how salinity plays out in the context of climate change. Projections on salinity are highly uncertain, and range from not needing to worry necessarily due to reductions in rainfall, to a worsening scenario due to increased movement and subsequent isolation of salt. For this reason, a key priority in the catchment is to maintain engagement and knowledge regarding soil salinity within vulnerable land systems. 64 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 3.18 References 3. Land Mapwell (2006). Salinity outbreak mapping. Prepared for Namoi Catchment Management Authority. Mapwell. CSIRO (2008). Why Soil Organic Matter Matters. Fact sheet. CSIRO. Available at <http://www.csiro.au/ resources/soil-organic-matter.html>. Namoi ROC (2008). Regional landscape resources map for the Namoi Catchment. Namoi ROC. Natural Resources Commission (2010). Progress towards healthy resilient landscapes. Implementing the standards, targets and catchment action plans. Natural Resources Commission, Sydney. Danaher T., Horn G., Burley H., Higgins D. and Sparke G. (2012). Namoi catchment ground cover assessment – determining groundcover at the catchment and subcatchment scale. Remote Sensing and Land Assessment Section, Officer of Environment and Heritage, Department of Premier and Cabinet. Resilience Alliance (2007). Assessing and managing resilience in social-ecological systems: A practitioner’s workbook. Version 1.0. Available at <http://www.resalliance.org/3871.php>. Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water (2008). Monitoring, evaluation and reporting of soil condition in New South Wales. Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, Sydney. Soil Futures (2008). Maps and reports of soils landscapes at 1:100 000, maps of Land management units and management recommendations. Prepared for Namoi Catchment Management Authority. Soil Futures. Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water (2009). Land management within capability – a NSW monitoring, evaluation and reporting project. Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, Sydney. State of the Environment 2011 Committee (2011). Australian state of the environment 2011. Independent report to the Australian Government Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Community. DSEWPaC, Canberra. Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water (2010). Considering climate change in the review of the CAP – presentation to Namoi CMA. Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, Sydney. Stocking M. (2007). A global systems approach for healthy soils. In: Bigas H., Gudbrandsson G.I., Montanarella L. and Arnalds A. (Eds), Paper to the Soils, Proceedings of the International Forum Celebrating the Centenary of Conservation and Restoration of Soil and Vegetation in Iceland. 31 August – 4 September 2007, Selfoss, Iceland. European Union, Italy. Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water (2010). NSW climate impact profile: the impacts of climate change on the biophysical environment of New South Wales. Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, Sydney. Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water (2010). State of the catchment report – soil condition in the Namoi region. Draft report available DECCW, Sydney NSW. Walker B.H., Abel N., Anderies J.M. and Ryan P. (2009). Resilience, adaptability and transformability in the Goulburn-Broken catchment, Australia. Ecology and Society, 14(1), 12. DECCW (in prep). Draft state of the catchment report – Namoi Catchment. Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, Sydney. Walker B. and Meyers J.A. (2004). Thresholds in ecological and social-ecological systems: a developing database. Ecology and Society, 9(2), 3. Department of Primary Industries Victoria (2010). What is soil health (website). Available at http://vro.dpi.vic.gov. au/dpi/vro/vrosite.nsf/pages/soilhealth_home. Wolfenden J., Evans M., Essaw D., Johnson F., Sanderson A., Starkey G. and Wilkinson B. (2007). Resilience management – a guide for irrigated regions, communities and enterprises. Cooperative Research Centre for Irrigation Futures. Available at <http://www.une.edu. au/aglaw/research/CRCIF-TR0107.pdf>. Eco logical Australia (2010). Namoi Catchment land use mapping project. Prepared for Namoi Catchment Management Authority. Eco logical Australia. Kirchhof G., (2002). Ed Proceedings Soil Health Seminar – keeping our soils alive. NSW Agriculture (Now Industry & Investment NSW), Sydney. 65 4. Water NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 4. Water Water is defined as surface water and groundwater systems that comprise the riverine zone (made up of stream bed and banks, wetlands and floodplains), together with aquifers, both confined and unconfined. It also includes riparian vegetation, aquatic biota and water quality, and covers access to water, both for people and environmental values. Further monitoring, evidence and analysis has been undertaken since 2010 when this assessment was first completed. The 2013 update includes the results of further literature review, consultation with experts, and research specifically to inform this assessment as prioritised in the Namoi CAP or as part of ongoing monitoring and evaluation undertaken. A series of two expert workshops were run in 2010 with a range of groundwater, surface water, riparian vegetation and biodiversity expertise to identify assets within the water theme and any known thresholds and drivers considered relevant from a resilience perspective. This conceptual model has been drafted by the authors as a starting point for discussion around the critical assets underpinning water in the Namoi Catchment. This model suggests that surface water quality and geomorphology are the most critical assets. Figure 70: Conceptual model – contribution of water assets to the water theme; an arrow means that the ‘arrow from’ asset contributes to the ‘arrow to’ asset Reduces river incision promoting bankfull flows Floodplain flows Hydrological connectivity Stable bed & banks increase connectivity Floodplan Management enhances Poor quality floodplain flows limit use Low sediment load promotes connectivity High sediment can reduce recharge Riparian vegetation Enhance Bed & bank stability Floodplan Management reduces damage Promotes healthy vegetation Groundwater recharge River geomorphology Crtical mass & recruitment Promotes stability through vegetation health Promotes naturalised flows Filtering & stability Increases Create mass recruitment events In-stream flows System flush Surface water quality Quantity to flush system Better quality water provides increased uses Promotes Poor quality potential instream flows Link with linkages limit use & local degrade aquifers Water for vegetation recruitment & growth Habitat & resources Groundwater availabiltiy Increase uses Riparian buffers Provides stable structure for habitat Reduces risk of saline aquifer intrusion Enhances functionality Species Local flows Groundwater quality 67 Habitat provided Filtering & stability Optimal level of surface water quality Sustainable usage Provides Environmental services Habitat & resource for aquatic & terrestrial species Water for the environment Reduces risk of saline aquifer intrusion Stable bed & banks increase quality Better quality water provides increased uses Increase Species use Increase use Water for the people NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 4.1 Water asset – groundwater availability 4. Water of the catchment is considered to be in transition or disconnected due to the large stresses and long-term decline occurring. Downstream of the confluence of Cox’s Creek (transition) and the Namoi River, there are few areas of connection. Major areas of disconnect are observable around Zone 3 and 8 of the Upper Namoi Alluvium and at depth north of the Namoi River from Narrabri to Wee Waa in the Lower Namoi Alluvium. Definition The amount of groundwater available to people and the environment. Trend in condition (Badenhope et al 2012, p. 23) Declining. Impacts of continuing trend Notes on trend There is some uncertainty as to whether monitoring locations are appropriate. Another issue is the impact of policy changes already made but yet to play out in full. Potential aquifer collapse and reduced availability of water (including due to management response). According to a recent study commissioned by Namoi CMA: Extraction levels, recharge rates, policy, climate change impacts. Drivers and threats Conceptual model [M]uch of the catchment is shown to be in either a state of transition or disconnection from significant recharge. The impact of higher rainfall in 2010 is seen in reduced pumping drawdown and stable or increasing recovery levels throughout most of the Upper and Lower Namoi. However, groundwater levels across much of the catchment still exhibit long-term decline. Groundwater levels have recovered or are stable in Zones 1, 6, 7, 9 and 10. Long-term decline evident in all of the other zones of the Upper Namoi has been arrested in recent years, with the exception of Zone 12. There is risk of compaction, loss of storage and further decline throughout Zones 2, 3, 4, 5 and 8 should pumping rates increase again during future dry periods. In the Lower Namoi, large drawdowns and areas of greatest recoverydecline are found between Narrabri and Burren Junction north of the Namoi River and Pian Creek. Decline has stabilised in most pipes in recent wet years with some recovery occurring in the west of the catchment. (See Figures 63 and 71–82) Summaries of hydrograph analysis presented by Timms et al (2010) for the Upper and Lower Namoi Alluvium indicate that most zones in the Upper Namoi show poor recovery, decline of water levels, increased drawdown and in some cases increased leakage, with a significant recharge event required. In the Lower Namoi, there are large drawdowns, with the areas of greatest decline between Narrabri and Wee Waa to the north of the Namoi River. Groundwater levels in most bores are in decline. Bore level monitoring data shows a decline of recovered levels indicating possible risk of consolidation (ranging from -10 m to -14m decline of recovered levels over two decades, or -20 m over three decades). Calf (1978) found that through tritium and radiocarbon studies, water in the upper aquifers (less than 25m) was relatively young, in the middle aquifers (50–75m) it is about 600 years old, and some water is ‘fossil’ water, older than 35,000 years. Mapping of maximum drawdowns across the catchment highlights drawdown hotspots in Zone 3 near Curlewis on the Breeza Plain and in Zone 2 on Cox’s Creek. Drawdowns in the Lower Namoi are greatest to the north-east and east of Wee Waa, far north of Wee Waa, with a hotspot between Burren Junction and Walgett. Significant work was completed during the Upper and Lower Namoi Groundwater Sources Water Sharing Plan process to establish recharge rates and, in concert with the Achieving Sustainable Groundwater Entitlements (ASGE) program, adjust groundwater use to align with potential recharge rates. Estimated recharge rates are available for each zone in the Water Sharing Plan area. Considerable variation is shown for possible recharge in a year. Recharge for allocation purposes has been set on the high side of the possible variation. Repeated requests were made by the Groundwater Task Force operating at the time to establish actual safe operating limits for alluvial aquifers. As far as could be established in 2010, most of this work remained to be done. Using the method of clustering, the Namoi alluvium was divided into 23 clusters. These were divided into areas of connected, transition and disconnected, based on decision matrices incorporating the parameters of maximum drawdowns, long-term decline and streamflow correlation. The major areas of connection are around the recharge zone at the top of the catchment, along the Peel River and between Gunnedah and Boggabri. Shallow groundwater is connected to recharge between Narrabri and Burren Junction in the Lower Namoi Alluvium. Much 68 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 4. Water Thresholds known or suspected Recent analysis completed in 2012 by Badenhope et al (2012) has shown that much of the catchment is in either a state of transition or disconnection from significant recharge. The impact of higher rainfall in 2010 resulted in reduced pumping drawdown and stable or increasing recovery levels throughout most of the Upper and Lower Namoi. Groundwater levels across much of the catchment are still showing long-term declines, however. Known Nil. Strongly suspected 1) Aquifer drawdown below greater than maximum historical drawdown levels will result in further aquifer compaction in alluvial aquifers. 2) Quality declines such that a water resource is nominated a lesser type of beneficial use (e.g. declines from good quality drinking water to only being suitable for salt-tolerant crops). 3) Groundwater levels do not drop below the rooting depth of groundwater-dependent vegetation ecosystems. 4) Groundwater within 10 metres of soil surface where woody vegetation-based GDEs occur. 5) Drawdown occurs faster than recharge can occur. Work currently underway by the NSW Office of Water (in prep) has found that groundwater within 1 to 8 m for groundwater-dependent woody ecosystems identifies highly likely GDEs where there is a depth to groundwater in the range 0–8 m, and a frequency of use of 9–10 years out of 10. Recent analysis undertaken by Serov (2013) has shown that a 10 m depth to groundwater threshold is more appropriate for the Namoi Catchment’s woody groundwater-dependent ecosystems based on rooting depths of plants and mapping of vegetation communities. Controlling variables Recharge rate (as affected by both rainfall and land use), although it is clear that recharge has multiple types and inter-relationships that are currently poorly understood. Extraction rates. This builds on a literature review (Environmental Evidence Australia 2012) and a range of discussions with local experts and communities that also suggested that the range of rooting depths of plant communities in the Namoi Catchment meant a 30 m depth to groundwater for groundwater-dependent ecosystems threshold as initially proposed in 2010 was not appropriate for the catchment. See also Figure 63, above. Figure 71: The water cycle Source: DLWC (1997) 69 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 72: Relationships between components of a groundwater system 4. Water Figure 74: Water-balance summary diagram for the Namoi River – regulated water management area 2004– 2005 Source: http://www.connectedwaters.unsw.edu.au/resources/ students/students_groundwater.html Figure 73: The hydrologic cycle, including its effect on a catchment Source: Sophocleous (2002), based on Freeze (1974) Source: Australian Water Resources (2005) Figure 75: Hudson footslope – recharge through weathered basalt hill slopes near the Liverpool Ranges Source: Timms et al (2006) 70 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 76: Flow chart of the hydrological sub-processes in the water-balance model. 4. Water Figure 78: Maximum historical drawdown pre 2011, maximum drawdown at each bore, Upper Namoi Alluvium Source: Badenhope et al (2012) Figure 79: Maximum historical drawdown pre 2011, maximum drawdown at each bore, Lower Namoi Alluvium Source: Bari & Smettem (2006) Figure 77: Maximum historical drawdown pre 2011, maximum drawdown at each bore, Namoi Alluvium Source: Badenhope et al (2012) Figure 80: Idealised drawdown for an aquifer system with multiple pumping bores Source: Badenhope et al (2012) Source: Kelly et al (in prep) 71 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 4. Water Impacts of continuing trend Figure 81: Histogram of change in groundwater levels in the Namoi Catchment between 1998 and 2008 If the trend is down, impacts will include aquifer collapse and reduced availability of water with a range of other unknown potential impacts, given that we do not currently understand the complexity of the system and its many interactions. Drivers and threats Land use, climate change (reduced water inputs), changed hydrology. Conceptual model (See Figures 83–87) Young et al (2002) posed that recharge in the Namoi was declining naturally due the formation of the modern clays of the Marra Creek Formation, reducing the infiltration possible from large floods. Only the sandy channels and palaeochannels provide opportunities for surface run-off to infiltrate. Source: Kelly et al (in prep) Figure 82: Median annual change in groundwater levels in Namoi Catchment 1978–2008 Thresholds known or suspected No thresholds are identifiable at this stage. Controlling variables Recharge rates (extraction and rainfall). Water levels within aquifers. Integrity of structural connections between aquifers and with recharge zones. Linkages and feedback to other themes Links to groundwater and surface water assets, but there is little information regarding how these connections operate. Source: Kelly et al (in prep) Figure 83: Illustration of the anatomy of an aquifer system 4.2 Water asset – groundwater recharge Definition The ability of water to infiltrate and move through the landscape and therefore recharge aquifers. Trend in condition Declining or stable. Notes on trend It remains challenging to assess exactly how much recharge is coming from various sources across the catchment, including slope, floodplain, and deep drainage recharge. Recent analysis completed in 2012 by Badenhope et al (2012) has shown that much of the catchment is in either a state of transition or disconnection from significant recharge. The impact of higher rainfall in 2010 resulted in reduced pumping drawdown and stable or increasing recovery levels throughout most of the Upper and Lower Namoi. Groundwater levels across much of the catchment are still showing long-term declines overall, however. Source: http://www.johnston-independent.com/groundwater_ recharge.html 72 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 84: Effects and manifestations of gravity-driven flow in a regionally unconfined drainage basin 4. Water Figure 87: Illustration of how water moves from groundwater, streams and soil to the atmosphere Source: Nevill (2009), originally from LWA (2007) 4.3 Water asset – optimal level of groundwater quality Definition Source: Sophocleous (2002), (adapted from Tóth 1999) The freshness and usability of aquifers for use by people and the environment. Figure 85: Illustration of confined, unconfined and perched aquifer systems Trend in condition Variable and down. Notes on trend There are not enough datasets to allow us to be conclusive regarding trends in relation to groundwater quality, but condition is variable across the catchment, and the trend is generally down, with Atrazine contamination picked up in some sources. Impacts of continuing trend Bores retired from production, drinking water, stock water and irrigation water supplies affected, GDEs adversely affected, soil degradation impacts from the use of poor quality water. Drivers and threats Extraction rates, recharge rates, climate change impacts, and bed and bank incision, resulting in reduced recharge, reduced water quality, and pollution from chemicals and salt. Source: http://www.johnston-independent.com/groundwater_ recharge.html Figure 86: Recharge from streambeds (a) with no hydraulic connection, and (b) with hydraulic connection Source: Sophocleous (2002) 73 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 4. Water 4.4 Water asset – surface water quantity Conceptual model (See Figures 88 and 89) Thresholds known or suspected Definition Known The amount of surface water in the catchment. 1) >1490 µS/cm – unacceptable for drinking water. 2) 5970 µS/cm – unsuitable for poultry. 3) 10450 µS/cm – unsuitable for dairy cattle or horses. 4) 14920 µS/cm – unsuitable for beef cattle. 5) 19400 µS/cm – unsuitable for sheep. 6) 1500 µS/cm – will impact on productivity of cotton. 7) 5500 µS/cm – unsuitable for sunflowers. 8) 6000 µS/cm – unsuitable for wheat. 9) 7700 µS/cm – unsuitable for cotton. 10) 8000uS/cm – unsuitable for barley. Trend in condition Poor, and declining. Notes on trend Predicted long-term trend is down – policy shocks and drying environment. Impacts of continuing trend Reduced water availability for use, increased pressure on groundwater systems, aquatic health declines, reduction to habitat quality, changes to geomorphology. Strongly suspected 1) Extraction reaches a level that causes drawdown of shallow salted aquifers. 2) Extraction reaches a level that causes lateral movement of salts from other parts of the aquifer. Drivers and threats Extraction (including population growth, industry and agriculture), climate change (reduced rainfall), changes in rainfall pattern, afforestation, land-use change, urbanisation (stormwater). Controlling variables Extraction rates, because these can draw salty or contaminated water from shallow aquifers into deeper ones. Distance from cropping activity, recharge rates, type of rock water is travelling through. Conceptual model (See Figures 73, 76 and 90–94) River reaches in red in Figure 92 are considered to be under the 66% natural flow threshold, based on available flow and extraction data. These areas therefore are a priority for future water planning. It is important to note, as outlined in the report that accompanied this mapping, that the hydrologic stress is underestimated, due to the available data and the way it is analysed. Linkages and feedback to other themes Links to riparian condition, water quality, water quantity and hydrological equilibrium. Figure 88: How contamination occurs within aquifers A drawback to this type of indicator is that if an ecologically important part of the hydrograph is highly impacted (e.g. zero flow periods are more frequent, or small freshes are lost), it may not be reflected in an annual flow metric. This is because annual flows maybe significantly larger than the volumes in the part of the hydrograph being altered. For example the annual indicator is much more likely to highlight impacts like the loss of large volumes from high flows, but not pick up on increases in the number of zero flow days, because the volumes of water extracted are smaller, yet the degree of impact on the ecology may be just as great (NOW 2012). Source: http://www.johnston-independent.com/groundwater_ recharge.html Figure 89: Illustration of how polluted groundwater affects a surface water stream It is for this reason that the mapping products used by the Namoi CMA to illustrate the 66% threshold appear to ‘underestimate’ hydrologic stress compared to the risk from extraction maps prepared by the Office of Water. Additionally, the 66% approach does not consider the instream ‘value’ of the reach under stress. Updated mapping of risk to in-stream values from extraction is presented below (See Figure 93) to provide this context. Source: DLWC (1997) 74 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Thresholds known or suspected 4. Water Figure 91: Monthly flow duration curve for the Namoi River at Narrabri Known Nil. Strongly suspected 1) Water entering the system is reduced to a level that changes in-stream flows from current regime. 2) 66% of the flow regime of the river remains natural (including frequency, duration and timing). 3) Human need, agricultural need and industry demand remain within one third of flow regime. Controlling variables Rainfall, extraction, losses. See also Figures 73 and 76, above. Source: DLWC (2000) Figure 90: Summer and winter river flows in the Namoi Figure 92: Stream valley interactions and impacts of modifications Source: Thoms et al (1999) Source: Poff et al (1997) 75 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 4. Water 4.5 Water asset – surface water availability – environment Figure 93: Surface water flow in the Namoi Catchment relative to threshold Definition The amount of surface water available to the environment. Trend in condition Stable, and possibly increasing given increases in environmental allocations. Notes on trend The trend may be improving because of environmental water allocations and purchases in recent years; however, it remains to be seen whether the flows allocated will provide enough water in time to offset the overall general drying of the environment and ongoing water use. Overall water availability in general is expected to be reduced by 5% by 2030 given climate change. Figure 94: Degree of risk to in-stream values for the Namoi Catchment No action required at this time. 4.6 Water asset – surface water available to people Definition The amount of surface water available to people. Trend in condition Declining. Notes on trend Decreasing due to the drying environment and policy decisions promoting higher level of priority to environmental watering. Overall water availability in general is expected to be reduced by 5% by 2030 given climate change. It should be noted that environmental water is available to people through the ecosystem services it promotes if not directly available for extraction. Figure 95: Relative level of water use for Murray-Darling Basin regions Source: CSIRO (2008) 76 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Impacts of continuing trend 4. Water Thresholds known or suspected Decreased drinking, stock and irrigation water, industry water, towns, recreation. Known Nil. Drivers and threats Strongly suspected Climate change, policy, declines in quality, changed land management, extraction rates. 1) Geomorphological threshold exists whereby river channels can be incised to the point that only major flooding events breach the boundaries of the rivers. 2) A density of 100–1000 cladocerans L-1 within three weeks of floodplain inundation – will meet prey requirements of larval fish, and can be used as a surrogate for ecological condition. 3) Flooding within 10–20 years – maintenance of viable egg and seed banks. 4) Flooded every 2–3 years – aquatic fauna breeding. Conceptual model Current work involves development of Integrated Quantity Quality Model (IQQM) models, and sustainable yield models such as those developed by CSIRO. Thresholds known or suspected Known Nil. Controlling variables Strongly suspected Extraction, rainfall, diversion, losses, river geomorphology. 1) Minimum flow for population size. 2) Minimum flow for sustainable agriculture. 3) Minimum flow to support an economy that meets the needs of catchment population. Linkages and feedback to other themes Links back to the intactness of vegetation communities and groundwater quantity and quality. Controlling variables Figure 96: River and floodplain interactions Rainfall, allocation, extraction limits – competition for use, price. 4.7 Water asset – floodplain flows Definition Subcomponent of surface water availability that has strong influences on things such as ground hydrology and wetland health, within river flows that break out and local overland flows. Trend in condition Declining. Notes on trend Source: Thoms et al (1999) Impacts of continuing trend Figure 97: Confined, partly confined and lateral unconfined valley settings and their impact on river morphology Incidence of flash flooding may increase. Incidence of riverine flooding is likely to increase. Reductions in groundwater recharge, floodplain wetlands condition and extent reduced, floodplain health overall reduced, health of floodplain vegetation communities reduced, and reductions in fish breeding events. Drivers and threats Extraction (including population growth, industry and agriculture), climate change (reduced rainfall), changes in rainfall pattern, afforestation, land-use change, urbanisation (stormwater), development of infrastructure, changes to river geomorphology. Source: Jain et al (2008) Conceptual model (See Figures 96–98) 77 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 4. Water Linkages and feedback to other themes Figure 98: Geomorphic and ecological functions at different flow levels Links back to the intactness of vegetation communities, groundwater, economics and people. See also Figure 55, above. Figure 99: Processes within upland rivers Source: Poff et al (1997) 4.8 Water asset – in-stream flows Definition Surface water flows that stay within bed and bank. Source: Thoms et al (1999) Trend in condition Figure 100: Conceptual models of large river ecosystem function Declining. Notes on trend This trend is based largely on reduction in water entering the system, particularly due to a drying environment and continued extraction. Impacts of continuing trend Continued water quality and quantity decline, degraded geomorphology, declining riparian vegetation, biodiversity loss. Drivers and threats Water extraction (including due to population growth, industry and agriculture), climate change effects (particularly through reduced rainfall), changes in rainfall patterns, afforestation, land-use change, urbanisation (stormwater). Conceptual model (See Figures 55 and 99–101) Thresholds known or suspected Known Nil. Strongly suspected 1) Water entering the system is reduced to a level that changes in-stream flows from current regime. 2) Two thirds of the flow regime of the river remains natural (including frequency, duration and timing). Controlling variables Source: Lovett & Price (2007) Magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, rate of change. 78 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 4. Water Thresholds known or suspected Figure 101: Relationship between flow regime and ecological integrity Known Nil. Strongly suspected Physical integrity of wetlands remains. Controlling variables Physical intactness, rainfall. Linkages and feedback to other themes Links back to the intactness of vegetation communities, groundwater, economics and people. 4.10 Water asset – hydrological connectivity Definition The degree to which surface and groundwater (and groundwater and groundwater sources) are connected. Trend in condition Variable for different areas, but probably overall downwards. Notes on trend Studies in the Maules Creek Catchment area in the Namoi have shown that groundwater extraction seems to cause long-term decreasing water levels in the aquifer. They have also found that groundwater extraction appears to enhance recharge from rivers and streams and that the location of exchange is largely controlled by variations in the geology and the location of extraction. Furthermore, it is concluded that changes in flow regimes from gaining to losing may have impacts on water quality and in turn on streambed ecology. Source: Poff et al (1997) 4.9 Water asset – local flows Definition Impacts of continuing trend Water independent of the floodplain and the river such as perched wetlands. Significant impacts on groundwater recharge, potential for streams to lose more to base flow, thus reducing surface water availability. Trend in condition Declining. Drivers and threats Notes on trend This is based largely on reduction in water entering the system, through both a drying environment and an increase in farm dams. Incision of streams, downwards trends in rainfall, changed flow regimes – quicker overland flows, aquifer drawdown resulting in disconnections with connected aquifers, extraction rates. Impacts of continuing trend Conceptual model (See Figures 59, 73, 86 and 102–111) Reductions in groundwater recharge, decline in aquatic biodiversity. Thresholds known or suspected Drivers and threats Known Draining, grazing, damming, extraction, drying environment. Nil. Conceptual model Nil available. 79 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Strongly suspected 4. Water Figure104: Gaining stream; high groundwater levels (winter) and/or low stream flow 1) Connection is maintained between surface and groundwater – once disconnection occurs it can take a long time for connection to be re-established, if ever. 2) Connection is maintained between groundwater and groundwater sources – it is possible to draw an aquifer down so that it is below a bench of impermeable bedrock – associated with aquifer compaction, the two aquifers may never reconnect, impacting on lateral flow of groundwater through the catchment. Controlling variables Permeability, amount of water. Source: Anderson (2008), based on Winter et al (1998) Linkages and feedback to other themes Links back to the intactness of vegetation communities, groundwater, economics and people. Figure 105: Groundwater extraction See also Figures 59, 73 and 86, above. Figure 102: Interactions between surface water and groundwater. Schematic illustration of the interaction between surface water and groundwater: (a) neutral reach, (b) disconnected reach, (c) losing reach and (d) gaining reach Source: Anderson (2008), based on Winter et al (1998) Figure 106: Losing stream; high stream flow due to flooding or dam releases Source: http://www.connectedwaters.unsw.edu.au/downloads/ CWI_Flagship_Project_1.pdf; modified from Winter et al (1998) Figure103: For a losing stream, flow is from the surface into the underlying sediments; the inset shows the pathways of heat transfer into the sediments by conduction (grey) and convection (black) Source: Anderson (2008), based on Winter et al (1998) Figure 107: Disconnected stream; potential implications for streamflow Source: Rau et al (2008) Source: Anderson (2008), based on Winter et al (1998) 80 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 108: Water availability in the Namoi 4. Water Figure 111: NSW river reaches and groundwater management areas Source: SKM (2006), from NSW Department of Land and Water Conservation data. Extract from Nevill (2009) Source: CSIRO (2007) 4.11 Water asset – river geomorphology Figure 109: Illustration of groundwater use and resultant impact on river over time Definition Stable and functioning geomorphology in the catchment. Trend in condition Declining. Notes on trend NSW Office of Water has mapped recovery potential and fragility. Impacts of continuing trend Incision of streams, turbidity and water quality declining, reduced aquifer recharge, reduced floodplain wetting, wetland health declines, in-stream habitat destruction, reduced recovery potential of the system. Source: CSIRO (2007) Figure 110: Illustration of surface-groundwater connectivity in the Namoi Drivers and threats Changed flow regime – both in regulated and unregulated systems, increase rate of run-off and floods, removal of instream structures, reduced riparian vegetation (cropping, clearing, grazing, tree death), gravel/sand extraction. Conceptual model (See Figures 112–114, Box 1 and Table 3) Known Nil. Strongly suspected 1) Stream bank slope >15–20% – plants unable to recruit. 2) Geomorphology good by reference to natural condition of each river style. (Good means close to natural condition.) 3) Presence of dams or weirs. 4) Recovery potential exists. Source: CSIRO (2007) 81 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 A river style is a length of river with a characteristic degree of valley confinement, a certain channel planiform and a particular suite of geomorphic units and be materials. 4. Water Box 1 NSW Office of Water Recovery potential and fragility mapping The following is an extract from the NSW Office of Water Briefing Note on Risk Assessment Methodology (no date), which outlines the way in which river reaches are assessed and risk is defined based on recovery potential based on condition and fragility based on riverstyles mapping. The channel cross-sectional areas below the weirs in the lower River Murray show three basic responses in river systems in terms of geomorphology: stabilising, eroding, or fluctuating. The definition of recovery potential is that it is a measure of the capacity of a reach to return to good condition or to a realistic rehabilitated condition, given the limiting controls of the reach. These controls are based on the physics of hydraulics and the ability of vegetation and sediment to facilitate geomorphic evolution. These principles are well documented within the current literature. For example, Petts & Gurnell (2005) states that fluvial geomorphology is responsible for maintaining the structural features essential for a healthy riverine ecosystem. Controlling variables Water quantity, flow rates and timing, presence of riparian vegetation, bank slope, bed and bank materials. Figure 112: Illustration of the relationships between degradation, connectivity and flow in rivers Therefore, recovery potential is a measure of threat and pressure as it uses observable features such as the condition, ecological processes (e.g. weed succession), water extraction (e.g. irrigation), land use (e.g. livestock grazing and trampling impacts) and infrastructure (e.g. dams and the rate/degree of physical pressures acting on these reaches over time and space which influence a streams recovery potential. The fragility classification was developed as part of the Hunter River Styles report and was based on the adjustment potential of three main characteristics of each river style. Source: Thoms et al (1999) Stream fragility was defined as the susceptibility/ sensitivity of certain geomorphic categories to physically adjust/change when subjected to degradation or certain threatening activities. Significant adjustment is sometimes seen in-stream types that have higher levels of fragility (i.e. streams that are not robust or have lower resilience). This significant adjustment can also result in certain geomorphic categories changing to another one when a certain threshold (level of disturbance) of a damaging impact is exceeded. Three categories were then derived based on this definition: Low fragility Resilient (‘unbreakable’). Minimal or no adjustment potential. Only minor changes occur such as bed form alteration and the category or sub-category never changes to another one regardless of the level of damaging impact. 82 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 4. Water Figure 114: Geomorphic condition mapping across the Namoi Catchment (2010) Medium fragility Local adjustment potential. It may adjust over short sections within the vicinity of the threatening process. Major character changes can occur or the category or sub-category can change to another – but only when a high threshold of damaging impact is exceeded. For example, it may require a catastrophic flood, sediment slug or clearing of all vegetation from bed, banks and floodplain. High fragility Significant adjustment potential. Sensitive. It may alter / degrade dramatically and over long reaches. Major character changes can occur or the category or sub-category can change to another one when a low threshold of damaging impact is exceeded (e.g. clearing of bank toe vegetation alone). 4.12 Water asset – aquatic species In this approach, the likelihood (or resilience) is considered to be the vulnerability or susceptibility (stream fragility) to a threat (recovery potential). Thus, the method calculates the likelihood as: Definition Likelihood = fragility x recovery potential Trend in condition Native fish (number of species and number of each species), invertebrates, aquatic vegetation, aquatic vertebrate fauna (non-fish). Declining. Notes on trend Fish and macro-invertebrate condition is generally poor and continuing to decline (many fish stocks at 10% of natural population densities). Fish populations are declining in general across the Murray-Darling Basin. Some frog populations (such as the Booroolong Frog) have undergone severe declines. Table 3. River likelihood classifications as determined by the river styles framework. Impacts of continuing trend Species extinctions, especially fish (projected down to 5% in 40–50 years) as the pinnacle species in many aquatic systems, reduced genetic stock, knock-on effects to ecosystems. Drivers and threats Regulation, pollution, temperature changes, riparian degradation, erosion, de-snagging, introduced invasive species, barriers to species movements. Figure 113: Updated risk to in-stream value mapping for the Namoi Catchment (2013) Conceptual model (See Figure 54) Thresholds known or suspected Known Nil. 83 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Strongly suspected 4. Water Thresholds known or suspected 1) A threshold has been identified in research to date showing that a shift in riverine sites from good to moderate condition results in a marked difference in macrophyte and macro-invertebrate assemblages. Thus it would seem they are sensitive to this threshold (from good to moderate condition), but a shift in sites from moderate to poor condition results in little additional impact on biodiversity. 2) Cease to flow – a major threshold in how rivers function, but not necessarily a result of intervention by people. 3) Availability of refugia from natural disturbances (flood and drought for example). Refugia include perennial pools, cold-water refuges and flow velocity refuges. 4) Degree of lateral connectivity. 5) Degree of longitudinal connectivity. Known Nil. Strongly suspected 1) Vegetation present. 2) Width of buffer. 3) Recruitment rates exceed attrition rates. Research carried out on river red gum communities on the Lower Murrumbidgee Floodplain found that they require periodic inundation (3–5 years) for up to 64 days to be in moderate to good condition. Controlling variables Vegetation loss, vegetation recruitment, stream bank slope. Figure 115. Direct and diffuse inputs into waterways in areas of pasture, with and without riparian vegetation Water temperatures exceed tolerances of aquatic fauna. There are quality thresholds for native fish, temperature and biological oxygen demand (BOD) thresholds, salinity thresholds, breeding triggers, migration triggers, thresholds applicable to macro-invertebrate availability and fish larval stages; but these thresholds need to be explored at the species and population scale. Controlling variables Water availability, frequency and timing of flows, geomorphology and habitat variability, refugia, temperature, quality, connectivity. 4.13 Water asset – riparian buffers Definition Vegetation alongside waterways including grasslands etc. that filter and buffer water from land-use impacts. Trend in condition Poor overall, but better in cropping areas and probably stable. Notes on trend Nil. Source: Parkyn (2004) Impacts of continuing trend Decline in water quality, loss of biodiversity, erosion, decline in geomorphology. Drivers and threats Clearing, invasive species, degradation of geomorphology, change in hydrological regime (through drying climate), climate change. Conceptual model (See Figures 115 and 116) 84 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 4. Water Impacts of continuing trend Figure116: Illustration of the function of riparian buffer zones Further fragmentation of landscape corridors and connectivity, loss of native woody vegetation cover, reduction in water quality, loss of ecosystems and RVCs, fish species extinctions, river geomorphology further degraded. Drivers and threats Water regulation, age of vegetation, poor quality of vegetation, lack of recruitment, loss of geomorphological integrity. Conceptual model (See Figures 56, 117 and 118) Source: Parkyn (2004) Please refer to Section 2.1 (Biodiversity asset – local-scale connectivity) for models of vegetation response to water deprivation extracted from Reid et al (2007). 4.14 Water asset – riparian vegetation Thresholds known or suspected Definition Nil. Known Healthy, persistent riparian vegetation. Strongly suspected Trend in condition 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) Declining. Notes on trend Recent assessment and mapping completed by Eco Logical Australia for Namoi CMA and Cotton Catchment Communities Co-operative Research Centre (CRC) shows that most of the riparian area is in poor to moderate condition. Condition appeared to be better in cropping zones than it was in grazing zones. Vegetation present. Width of vegetation. Recruitment rates exceed attrition rates. Continuity of vegetation cover. Presence of invasive weeds – lippia. Presence of grazing livestock. Access to base flow maintained. Controlling variables Grazing level, clearing, flow, invasive species. Linkages and feedback to other themes Linked to geomorphology, buffering, biodiversity, vegetation communities. See also Figure 56, above. 85 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 4. Water Notes on trend Figure 117: Riparian vegetation While there have been some recent reductions in chemical contamination, salinity continues to fluctuate up and down (driven in particular by the climate). Turbidity is very poor, but stable. Impacts of continuing trend Continued water quality decline and subsequent available fresh water impacts. Drivers and threats Land-use change, agricultural practices leading to diffuse source pollution, point source pollution, in-stream erosion, salty landscapes. Source: Price and Lovett (2002) Conceptual model Figure 118: Conceptual diagram of the effect of riparian vegetation on discharge (See Figures 89, 119 and 120) Thresholds known or suspected Known 1) >1490 µS/cm – unacceptable for drinking water. 2) 5970 µS/cm – unsuitable for poultry. 3) 10450 µS/cm – unsuitable for dairy cattle or horses. 4) 14920 µS/cm – unsuitable for beef cattle. 5) 19400 µS/cm – unsuitable for sheep. 6) 1500 µS/cm – will impact on productivity of cotton. 7) 5500 µS/cm – unsuitable for sunflowers. 8) 6000 µS/cm – unsuitable for wheat. 9) 7700 µS/cm – unsuitable of cotton. 10) 8000 µS/cm – unsuitable for barley. Strongly suspected 1) Aquatic biota will be adversely affected as salinity exceeds 1000 mg L-1 (1500 EC). 2) Blue-green algal level of 15000 cells/mL is reached. 3) Flows reduced (increasing concentration of pollutants). Controlling variables Salt, turbidity, nitrogen, phosphorous, pesticide levels. See also Figure 89, above. Figure 119: Desirable and undesirable states in relation to rivers Source: Price and Lovett (2002) 4.15 Water asset – optimal level of surface water quality Definition As expected by natural conditions (according to benchmarked/reference sites). Trend in condition Declining. Source: DECC (2008) 86 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 4. Water Figure 120: Factors that drive water quality and what CMAs can do about them Source: DECC (2008) 87 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 4.16 Climate change as a driver 4. Water presence and absence of weed species, such as lippia; where lippia is present, it means that this threshold has been crossed. The Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water has recently compiled more detailed projections of the impacts and hazards of climate change on a regional basis. The threshold of surface water flow at two thirds of natural state was sourced from the literature, and has implications for most of the water assets identified. For this reason it has been carried forward into the CAP. Similarly, the threshold of geomorphic condition being good (in comparison to a benchmark condition) is also underpinning most assets and will be carried forward into the CAP. Projections for impacts on water assets are generally towards a hotter, drier climate with associated increases in evapotranspiration that will result in drier soil conditions. Substantial increases in run-off depths and the magnitude of high flows are very likely in summer months. Run-off depth and magnitude of high flows is likely to decrease in winter and spring. This will be due to increased variability, and there will be more intense storm events as a result. Thresholds regarding riparian vegetation will also be considered in the CAP due to the relationships between riparian vegetation, riparian buffering, water quality, geomorphic condition, water quality and aquatic species. Short-term hydrological droughts are projected to become more severe in the east of the catchment and remain the same in the west. Changes in flood behaviour are also expected, but models are not specific enough to make a comment on how that may play out. Groundwater thresholds were as difficult to find as surface water thresholds. An overriding threshold in relation to groundwater is whether an aquifer maintains its integrity, particularly where they are a critical resource to either people or agriculture. This threshold can be achieved in the Namoi alluvial aquifers by ensuring that they are not drawn down past their historical maximum drawdown. There are thresholds that relate to connectivity of groundwater to other groundwater resources and surface water, but these are poorly understood and no quantitative threshold can be proposed at this time. A second relevant threshold that will be carried forward for groundwater is that a water resource should become a lesser category of beneficial use. For example, an aquifer (or part thereof) should not move from being suitable for good quality drinking water to agricultural use only. Further work is currently underway to review latest data and modelling with regard to predicted impacts of climate change, along with potential mitigation and adaptation options to inform the next iteration of natural resource plans for the region. 4.17 What does all this mean? Water appears to be one of the most poorly understood biophysical assets in the Namoi Catchment, despite the fact that the catchment is one of those more studied and better understood across Australia. Water plays a critical role in the function of landscapes as they underpin social activity (recreation, human needs) and economic activity (provide resource base), and support biodiversity. Wetlands were not specifically identified as an asset in the water theme. However, wetlands could be considered in a similar light to threatened species in the biodiversity theme. That is, if all other water assets – local flows and floodplain flows in particular – are working as they should, then wetlands should continue to function and persist in the landscape. There is one threshold that needs to be mentioned for wetlands not connected to hydrological function at the catchment scale, however, and this is the threshold of physical disturbance, particularly damming or drainage. It was not possible to source detailed information that would clearly and unequivocally support the findings of the conceptual model relating to the critical functions of water. Thresholds were highly variable, and only very few of them were sourced from the literature; most have been developed by the authors thinking about drivers of change and asset function to propose assets. It should also be noted that many thresholds relating to water assets have been crossed already. For example, a threshold has been associated with a weir or dam being built on a river. The Namoi and Peel Rivers both have major dams and many weirs along their length. Another threshold is the Water is a point of vulnerability in the Namoi Catchment, with much of the economy and wellbeing of people directly related to the availability of water and continued access to it for irrigation and human needs. There is likely to be a series of shocks to the water system in the catchment. These include reductions in supply from policy change (e.g. the Murray-Darling Basin Plan), reductions in availability at times due to climate variability/ change (for example, extended hydrological droughts), land-use change (for example extractive industry use of water). This may be further exacerbated by a greater need for water for agriculture, industry and people due to It was a struggle to find conceptual models that helped to explain how the basics of water quantity and quality function for people and ecosystem outcomes. Thresholds were difficult to source, and most have been proposed by the authors. 88 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 increasing evapotranspiration rates brought about by a warmer climate. 4. Water Bond N.R., Lake P.S. and Arthington A.H. (2008). The impacts of drought on freshwater ecosystems: an Australian perspective. Hydrobiologia, 600, 3–16. Due to the reliance of the Namoi Catchment on its water resources, the exceeding of critical thresholds for water assets has the potential to cause significant changes right across the entire catchment. Unfortunately, solid and quantitative information regarding thresholds for water assets in the catchment proved difficult to source from the currently available information. A major focus for the future is to establish where the thresholds might lie in relation to using both ground and surface water such that these systems are not pushed into undesirable states. Boys C., Rourke M., Robinson W., Gilligan D and Thiebaud I. (2011). Status of freshwater catfish populations and their habitat within the Cockburn River. Report prepared for Namoi Catchment Management Authority. NSW DPI, Nelson Bay. Brookes J.D., Alridge K., Wallace T., Linden L. and Ganf G.G. (2005). Multiple interception pathways for resource utilisation and increased ecosystem resilience. Hydrobiologia, 652, 135–146. 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DSEWPaC, Canberra. 93 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Steffen W., Burbridge A.A., Hughes L., Kitching R., Lindenmayer D., Musgrave W., Smith M.S. and Werner P.A. (2009). Australia’s biodiversity and climate change. Summary for policy makers 2009. Summary of a report to the Natural Resouce Management Ministerial Council commissioned by the Australian Government, Canberra. 4. Water URS (2007). Scoping study – towards a peel river sharing plan. oportunities & constraints.Prepared by URS for Namoi CMA, Gunnedah. URS (2008). Securing Tamworths water supply – a scoping study. URS. Vaze J., Teng J., Post D., Chiew F., Perraud J-M. and Kirono D. (2008). Future climate and runoff projections (~2030) for New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory. NSW Department of Water and Energy, Sydney. Thoms M., Norris R., Harris J., Williams D. and Cottingham P. (1999). Environmental scan of the Namoi River Valley. 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Interconnectivity between surface and groundwater in Maules Creek. University of New South Wales. 94 5. People NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 5. People This theme relates particularly to for of those capitals: social, human, manufactured and financial, in the context of their relevance to natural resource management. People are defined as ‘the social and economic elements of the catchment in relation to how they are underpinned by natural resources, an asset for increasing resilience and a driver of system changes’. Human capital can be defined as the value of people’s knowledge, skills, motivations and health. Human capital attempts to capture the skills and assets that an individual can contribute to the catchment. An expert workshop was undertaken in 2010 with a mixture of economic, social and human perspectives to identify assets within the people theme that could potentially have thresholds and drivers relevant to a resilience perspective. Many and varied assets were defined, and are available in Appendix K: Results from expert workshops. Social capital is defined as the value of how people interact with one another, whether in a community sense or within the institutional arrangements and governance of the catchment. Further monitoring, evidence and analysis has been undertaken since 2010, when this assessment was first completed. The 2013 update includes the results of further literature review, consultation with experts, and research specifically to inform this assessment as prioritised in the Namoi CAP or as part of ongoing monitoring and evaluation undertaken. Manufactured capital refers to the infrastructure and built assets of the catchment including roads, buildings, and the infrastructure of cities, but less the people and their relationships. Financial capital refers to the money/economic functions of the catchment. It is important to note that it has no real value in itself, but is a driver and a reflection of human, social and manufactured capitals. Due to the variation and complexity of assets, the group discussed allocating each of the assets to one of the capitals as presented in the Five Capitals Model as produced by the Forum for the Future organisation14 (http://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/the-fivecapitals). There was some disagreement on this approach, so this analysis uses the Five Capitals Model to organise the assets defined by the expert workshop. Table 4 allocates assets as defined by the expert workshops into the four capitals used in this theme. Many of the assets defined by the expert workshops can be described as more than one capital, and a primary and secondary allocation has been made. Figure 121: The Five Capitals – a conceptual model of the five types of capital from which we derive the goods and services we need to improve the quality of our lives Source: Forum for the Future – www.forumforthefuture.org/project/ five-capitals/overview) 96 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 5.1 People asset – human capital Table 4: Assets defined by expert workshops, and how they may fit into ‘capitals’ Asset as defined by expert workshop Primary capital Secondary capitals Major centres Manufactured Social, financial Villages Social Manufactured Infrastructure Manufactured Soft infrastructure – services Manufacture Human, social Lifestyle amenity Manufactured Natural (underpinned by resources) Imported capital Financial Economic diversity Financial Industries Social Financial Distribution of wealth Financial Social Intellectual capital Human Experience Human Leadership Human Skills Human Capacity to imagine a different future Human Knowledge and data Human Cultural diversity Human Social Sense of belonging Human Social Self-knowledge Human Health Human Proximity to other places Social Shared purpose Social Shared history Social Complexity of communities Social Mixture of ages, sexes Social Human Social cohesion Social Human Equity Social Social networks Social Migration Social 5. People Definition Human capital has been defined by the Forum for the Future organisation as ‘consisting of people’s health, knowledge, skills and motivation’ (http://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/the-five-capitals). Assets defined by the expert workshop participants that fit into this category are: • Intellectual capital – a combination of ‘smartness’ and education level – not necessarily well represented by levels of tertiary education. The Namoi Catchment enjoys higher than state average levels of certificate level education, and lower than state average levels of tertiary education. • Experience – including experience of different events, circumstances and eras within the catchment, but also of other places, cultures and societies. It is important to note that experiences of the same event will be different, depending on the cultural and personal attributes of each person. Lifelong residents of the Namoi Catchment potentially hold a detailed specific knowledge of life in the catchment, while there are many residents who have come to the catchment and bring with them experiences of other places and people, both nationally and internationally. • Leadership – the capacity of a person to take responsibility for outcomes within a community and operate at multiple levels to carry the needs and wants of a community forward in times of stress or into ongoing policy and planning debates. Leadership varies across the catchment, with some communities and industries having the benefit of very strong leadership captured in a few key people. • Skills – the ability of people to carry out tasks. Skill sets existing in the catchment are relevant to the way the catchment is today; however some skill shortages have occurred in recent history and demand for skills continues to grow. It is unknown what currently unused skill sets people have that will help in times of shock or crisis within the catchment or how relevant current skill sets might be to the catchment of the future. • Capacity to imagine a different future – an important contributor to adaptive capacity, in that if an individual cannot imagine a different way of being in the world, it makes it very hard to build multiple skills and knowledge and to prepare for change, let alone be accepting of the need for it. It is unknown to what level the residents of the Namoi Catchment can imagine different futures for themselves or the catchment. Human 97 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 • Knowledge and data – including the amount of information and data that is available to people and the access to knowledge and data. Knowledge and data about the Namoi Catchment is good and improving steadily, particularly in relation to the natural resource base of the catchment. Research and development activity in the catchment has been high, based on the requirements of the major agricultural activities that occur here. Furthermore, access to knowledge and data by an individual is increasingly easy due to the internet and to increased efforts from custodians to ensure that information moves readily through communities. It is unknown whether there is an increased readiness to accept knowledge and data and make changes based on increased understanding. • Cultural diversity – the diversity of language, nationality and beliefs (either secular or religious) within the community. Cultural diversity is an attribute found within a person, but requires the appreciation of a community before it can become an asset. Cultural diversity will improve access to different responses in times of stress and shock. The Namoi Catchment has some cultural diversity as evidenced by a strongly identified Aboriginal nation in the Gamilaraay nation, religious and secular diversity, and highly variable positioning on moral and ethical debates. 5. People • Sense of belonging – meaning a strong sense of place within landscape and community. It is unknown how many people would express a sense of belonging within the catchment and to what degree. It is also unknown whether people feel more connected to the people within the catchment or to places within the catchment. • Self-knowledge – describing the ability of a person to know their own strengths and weakness, to know what they know and are capable of and be able to reflect on how they might cope given sudden change or a different future. There is no measure of selfknowledge applicable to the Namoi Catchment at this time. • Health – both physical and mental and important to the capacity of people to move, change, learn new skills, take on new challenges and be independent. Health across the catchment is perceived to be on par with state averages. Aboriginal people experience poorer health outcomes, with resultant shorter than average life expectancies. Trend in condition The following trends were identified by the expert workshop participants, and have been substantiated via a literature review. Those assets where information was not available have been noted, and this analysis will rely on the opinion of the expert workshop. Where a trend was not identified, this has also been noted. Asset Trend Notes on trend Reference Intellectual capital Up Improved access to knowledge – internet etc Draft Namoi 2030 Report Experience No trend noted If age-dependent and we have an ageing population – could be up No reference Leadership No trend noted Differing viewpoints about whether it is improving or decreasing No reference Skills Up Demand is also increasing, and some skills are disappearing (e.g. preserving food) No reference Capacity to imagine a different future No trend noted If age-dependent and we have an ageing population – could be down No reference exactly but Scenario Planning Environmental Scan (Delaney and Cork 2006) place Australia generally high in ‘future thinking’. Knowledge and data Up Improved information and improved access to information Draft Namoi 2030 Report Cultural diversity increasing Up according to data sources – both in Aboriginal community and people who have English as a second language Draft Namoi 2030 Report General Resilience Assessment 2013 Sense of belonging No trend noted High in Traditional owner groups, but no trend info provided 2010 Social Survey of Namoi CMA Stakeholders (Ipsos-Eureka 2010) Self-knowledge Down Locus of control moving to governments more and more – people do not reflect as much on self No reference Health Down May reflect rates of diagnosis instead of real No reference change in health status 98 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 5. People Impacts of continuing trend Impacts of continuing trends are viewed in light of how the trend might affect or lessen the catchment’s capacity to adapt to change. ‘Adaptive capacity’ in this context is defined as a process, action or outcome in a system (household, community, group, sector, region, country) in order for the system to better cope with, manage or adjust to some changing condition, stress, hazard, risk or opportunity (Smit and Wandel 2006). Results are as follows: Asset Trend Impact on adaptive capacity Intellectual capital Up Positive – more informed, know about risks, build relationships with change and uncertainty, and can sift through information and contextual risks and possible responses from a personal perspective. Also contributes to leadership capacity. Experience No trend noted If up – positive – maximises the tool kit available for responding. Seen many scenarios, many responses and can therefore reflect on what might or might not work from a personal perspective. Can also be shared to improve decision-making of others. If down – negative due to reduced understanding of tried and true responses. High risk of making mistakes that have been made before. Leadership No trend noted If up – improved – maximises the ability of individuals to become involved in adaptations at the social and economic levels. If down – negative impact via the reduced capacity for individuals to become involved in adaptation and building solutions from the bottom up. Skills Up Positive – individuals have greater skill base therefore more work choices if forced to move, or change jobs. Skill based needs to be distributed across the community, however, and not be all seated in a minority of individuals. Capacity to imagine a different future No trend noted If up – positive as it provides people with the awareness and impetus required to build in buffers in terms of skill sets, financial capital and lifestyle choices. If down – negative as the inability to imagine a different future means people are less likely to prepare for different futures. Knowledge and data Up Positive – individuals are more likely to understand how their system works and what is required for good outcomes environmentally, socially and economically. Also more likely to perceive risks as real and be prepared for change or shocks. Cultural diversity Increasing Positive – greater variation in responses to problems, more diversity in experience. The trend is not uniform, so where it is down – negative – reduced variation in responses and narrower perspectives in experience. Sense of belonging No trend noted Unclear. A sense of belonging may inhibit the capacity to imagine different futures and make people resistant to change or movement. Alternatively it might improve a person’s commitment to finding solutions to problems while staying where they are and is thought to contribute to social cohesion, an important part of a society’s ability to adapt. Self-knowledge Down Negative – people are more inclined to feel that they cannot act on problems and will sit and wait to be ‘saved’ by governments and institutions. Also people become distanced from their knowledge and experience and feel like they are not ‘expert’ enough to act. Health Down Negative – reduced health either mental or physical reduced capacity to act independently of support systems. Drivers and threats It is difficult to establish clear drivers of change in people systems due to the highly complex nature of individuals. An individual adapts constantly to different stimuli to achieve particular outcomes and it is almost impossible to tease out what the cause of a change may have been. An individual may be unable to establish what made them change let alone be able to explain it to others. To attempt to collect this information at a catchment scale in a meaningful way is almost impossible. However, for the purposes of this exercise, generalised drivers of change to each asset have been proposed. 99 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 5. People Asset Trend Drivers of change Intellectual capital Up Levels of access to education, motivation to train, health and lifestyles leading to intellectual capacity, migration of bright and/or educated people into or out of the catchment. Experience No trend noted Time and opportunity to experience different things, deaths of elders, older people become irrelevant and cannot impart benefits of experience, increased mobility of populations that means people do not stay long enough to build up a body of knowledge regarding a particular location, people moving to cities and coastal locations as lifestyle choices. Leadership No trend noted Numbers of people seeing the need for local leadership, levels of optimism in whether people can make a difference, levels of support for the development of leadership skills. Skills Up Access to education, training and skills development. Migration of skilled people into or out of the catchment. Capacity to imagine a different future No trend noted Knowledge and data Up Increased spending on knowledge and data development, increased commitment to sharing knowledge and data with communities. Cultural diversity Increasing Levels of support for maintaining cultural integrity of different groups, policy and institutional pressures towards assimilation, migration from and into the catchment. Sense of belonging No trend noted Self-knowledge Down Cultural and policy positioning that impact (either positively or negatively) on a person’s sense of themselves as having power over outcomes in their own lives. Health Down Diseases, age, health care. Figure 122: Conceptual model of the interaction between identified assets in human capital. An arrow from an asset illustrates a contribution to the ‘arrow to’ asset. A dotted line indicates a tenuous link. This conceptual model is proposed as a ‘conversation starter’ rather than a position of certainty Capacity to imagine a different future Leadership Intellectual capital Sense of belonging Cultural diversity health Self knowledge skills Knowledge and data 100 experience NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Thresholds known, suspected or possible There is very little information available regarding thresholds in human capital. Most work has focused on demographics and numbers, with population growth or decline most often used as an indicator of social and economic sustainability. Obviously, the numbers of people are important and there can be no human capital without them. It may prove to be important to look deeper in regard to human capital, however. Central to any discussion about human capital and its workings is that the critical information about it is vested in the idiosyncrasies of individuals and the communities and societies with which they interact. 4) Heat Stress Threshold (Mella and Madill 2007). Heat stress thresholds have been developed around the world in relation to human population’s tolerance for extreme heat. This information is not available for NSW currently, but there may be a threshold crossed that results in deaths and causes communities to become unviable. Possible 1) Leadership capacity falls below a critical mass. Leadership in the Namoi is currently provided by a few key nodes, either individual people or organisations that have a key role in the planning and development of the catchment. There is a possible threshold in the numbers of these nodes that can drop out before the system ceases to function as it has, and a new regime develops. 2) In-migration of high human capital falls below a critical mass, or out-migration exceeds a critical mass. In-migration is considered an important contributor to human capital. As areas decline, they reach a point where they can no longer attract human capital and the area may become locked into a spiral of decline. A similar effect can be caused by levels of out-migration of human capital exceeding in-migration. The thresholds listed here include those that have been posited by other authors in the literature, but not always in terms of them being a threshold. They are mostly the result of these authors reviewing the literature and thinking about the nature of the catchment and drawing conclusions regarding those parameters discussed by other bodies of work that could act like thresholds. They are proposed as a starting point for discussions about thresholds relating to the Namoi Catchment’s human capital, and not a positive position of certainty. Known Nil. Strongly suspected 1) Balance among values held (Walker et al 2009). This threshold was initially identified in the paper ‘Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability in the Goulburn-Broken Catchment, Australia’ as relating to the value of the environment as compared to economic and social activities. We suspect the same threshold occurs in the Namoi Catchment, but with the additional complexity of balance in values in a climate change context. We believe that as climate change occurs, so thresholds regarding concern and the need for action will be crossed. 2) Population pressure above resource capability (Smit and Wandel 2006). Population pressure above resource capability is a threshold that applies to any species. Human populations are often an exception due to the capacity to transport resources from other places. 3) Degree of dependence on a vulnerable resource (Marshall 2005). Dependence on a vulnerable resource depends on variables like capacity to imagine alternative futures, age and education level. If highly dependent on a resource that collapses either through biophysical or policy means, crisis is a likely outcome. The Namoi Catchment is highly dependent on vulnerable water resources, and is also highly dependent on agriculture, which is vulnerable to commodity shocks and a drying environment. 5. People 5.2 People asset – social capital Definition Social capital can be defined as the relationships, links and institutional arrangements that support and maintain people. Examples include families, communities, businesses, trade unions, schools and voluntary organisations (http://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/thefive-capitals). Assets defined by the expert workshop participants that fit into this category are: 101 • Proximity to other places – reflecting that relationships that are relevant to the people in the catchment have a much wider scope than just the catchment. An important part of why people live and work in the catchment can be because of its proximity to places or to people who are important but not within the catchment boundary. There is no measure of how proximity to other places affects the social capital of the catchment at this time. • Shared purpose – an important contributor to social cohesion and indicates a collective view of how the catchment should be managed. It should be noted that it is unlikely that shared purpose will be experienced across communities and between communities to an all-inclusive extent. An individual will most likely share a purpose with others on some things, but not on all things, and can agree with a direction today and change their mind tomorrow. NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 • Shared history – collective experience of events in the catchment. Important to social cohesion, and often associated with response and recovery of a community after disaster. Can also be associated with a reluctance to change and adapt. There is no measure of shared history available for the catchment; however, as there are many people who have lived most or all of their lives in the area, it can be assumed to be high. It must also be noted that whether shared history is positive or negative to an individual will depend on the outcomes of events for that person (e.g. farmers see the history of the catchment as settlement; Aboriginal communities see it as invasion). • Complexity of communities – defined as the richness and difference exhibited by those within a community as well as the differences between communities. No two communities are the same, and no two people within a community are the same. This definition also refers to the fact that dealing with communities from within is complex, and moving powerbases, practices of exclusion and politics all play a role in who is thought of as ‘community’. Engagement with the community needs to take this into account. • Mixture of ages, sexes – a rudimentary measure of diversity based on simple demographics. The median age of the catchment population is approximately 40 years. The Namoi region has more people than state averages in the 0–19 year age bracket, but significantly fewer 20–34 year olds. A higher than average number of people who are between 45 and 49 years old live in the catchment. • Social cohesion – there is a common vision and a sense of belonging for all; the diversity in people’s backgrounds and circumstances is appreciated and positively valued; those from different backgrounds have similar life opportunities; and strong and 5. People positive relationships are being developed between people from different backgrounds in the workplace, in schools and within neighbourhoods (http:// www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200304/ cmselect/cmodpm/45/45.pdf). Little is known about social cohesion in the Namoi Catchment at this time. • Equity – the state, quality, or ideal of being just, impartial and fair. A lack of equity, or even a perception of a lack of equity, impedes engagement with activities or adaptive changes (‘Why should I … ?’). There has been no formal analysis of equity in the Namoi Catchment. • Social networks – social structures made up of individuals (or organisations), called ‘nodes’, which are tied (connected) by one or more specific types of interdependency, such as friendship, kinship, common interest, financial exchange, dislike, or sexual relationships, or relationships of beliefs, knowledge or prestige. A social network analysis of the Namoi Catchment has not been completed. • Industries – collections of production and/or manufacturing businesses that have some collective interest, markets and accepted standards of practice. Several industries operate within the catchment; major examples are the cotton industry and the beef industry, poultry-related industries, the food manufacturing industry, extractive industries and a wool and sheep meat industry. Trend in condition The following trends were identified by the expert workshop participants and have been substantiated via a literature review. Those assets where information was not available have been noted, and this analysis will rely on the opinion of the expert workshop. Where a trend was not identified, this has also been noted. Asset Trend Notes on trend Reference Proximity to other places Stable Proximity cannot be changed. No reference Shared history Down Older people are dying, younger people moving away. No reference Shared purpose No trend noted Location sensitive and scale sensitive. Some parts of No reference the community can act collectively when required. Complexity of communities No trend noted No reference Mixture of ages, sexes Down Ageing population, mixture of sexes still pretty even. Social cohesion Down Societies becoming more individualistic. Equity No trend noted Social networks No clear trend Some evidence that some traditional social networks Social isolation reported as increasing such as churches and some sporting clubs are due to sustained drought (Alston and declining but total number of organised groups and Kent 2004) networks is stable or increasing. Communication networks in particular have increased. Industries Up Scale issues – strong industry components driving employment and migration but agriculture shedding labour. Migration No trend noted Draft Namoi 2030 Report Draft Namoi 2030 Report – GRP up 33%, export up 34%, average earnings up 43% No reference 102 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 5. People Impacts of continuing trend Impacts of continuing trends are viewed in light of how the trend might affect or lessen the catchment’s capacity to adapt to change. ‘Adaptive capacity’ in this context is defined as a process, action or outcome in a system (household, community, group, sector, region, country) in order for the system to better cope with, manage or adjust to some changing condition, stress, hazard, risk or opportunity (Smit and Wandel 2006). Results are as follows: Asset Trend Impact on adaptive capacity Proximity to other places Stable Good proximity to multiple centres can mean better servicing, greater connection with family and friends, increased adaptive opportunity, in that employment and lifestyle opportunities are likely to be more varied. Shared history Down Shared history can be a positive and is often associated with quick and effective response and recovery of a community after a disaster. It can also impede adaptive capacity, however, as it can be associated with a reluctance to change and adapt. Shared purpose No trend noted Similar in effect to shared history. Complexity of communities No trend noted Big impact on how communities respond. Greater complexity might mean a more diverse range of responses is possible, however, and may also lead to the ‘fracturing’ of any response. Mixture of ages, sexes Down Improved diversity can lead to an increase in diversity of responses. A large number of the very old or very young with possibly high levels of dependency on others may mean certain responses are not possible. Social cohesion Down Levels of social cohesion are tightly linked to the likelihood of communities doing well after catastrophic events. However, social cohesion is also often used to ‘manage’ people, and therefore may also be a predictor of reduced response diversity and poorer selfknowledge in an individual. Equity No trend noted A lack of equity will express itself in the failure of some parts of the social network failing to engage with responses or adaptation. In particular it is likely to impede how much responsibility an individual will take for the wellbeing of others. Social networks No clear trend Reflection of cohesion and could reflect some of the same effects on adaptive capacity. Reductions in social networks can lead to the ‘stretching’ of some social nodes resulting from a lack of succession planning and leadership development. Industries Up Some industries are very important to the social structure of the catchment, and significant restructure resulting will be a driver for the need for adaptive capacity; however, this will also impact on adaptive capacity by reducing options, impacting on cohesion, shared purpose etc. Migration No trend noted In-migration can have the impact of reducing social cohesion and shared purpose, therefore reducing adaptive capacity. However, it can also lead to increased human capital and therefore improve adaptive capacity. Drivers and threats It is even more difficult to establish clear drivers of change in social systems than it is to tease them out for an individual. It is well accepted that the processes that lead a society to take action and respond in particular ways are not well understood and are highly particularised to how events unfold and who was there on the day. However, for the purposes of this exercise, generalised drivers of change for each asset have been proposed. 103 5. People NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Conceptual model Figure 123: Conceptual model of social capital assets showing general loose and interconnected relationships between assets; assets identified contribute to the complexity of communities (another asset) COMPLEXITY OF COMMUNITIES Social cohesion Social networks Migration Industries Equity Proximity to other places Shared history Thresholds known, suspected or possible Shared purpose Possible As is the case for human capital, there is very little information available regarding thresholds in social capital, and similar sensitivity to the particularities of communities and societies is required. In-migration or out-migration exceeds a critical mass. This is a similar threshold to the one proposed for human capital, but actually means something quite different in the context of social capital. This threshold suggests that there is an identifiable amount of in-migration that a society can absorb before the social cohesion and networks struggle to maintain themselves under the pressure of large numbers of new people and cultures. The other part of this threshold relating to out-migration is similar to that proposed in the human capital thresholds, in that it refers to a certain number of people being able to leave an area before the social cohesion and networks break down due to the lack of people. Again, the thresholds listed here include those that have been posited by other authors in the literature, but not always in terms of them being a threshold. They are also mostly the ideas of these authors and are proposed as a starting point for discussions about thresholds relating to the Namoi Catchment’s social capital and rather than a position of certainty. Known 5.3 People asset – manufactured capital Nil. Strongly suspected Mixture of ages and sexes 1) Population pressure above resource capability is a threshold that applies to any species. Human populations are often an exception, however, due to the capacity to transport resources from other places. This threshold in regard to social capital relates to the things that happen to social cohesion and networks when resources become scarce. There is a suspected threshold that when crossed impacts on trust, partnerships, communication and relationships, with the potential for conflict and complete collapse of a society. 2) Industry expansion beyond infrastructure capability. There is a level of industry that current infrastructure can support (including water infrastructure). A suspected threshold occurs in the critical mass of industry exceeding infrastructure capacity with the potential to collapse themselves, infrastructure or other industries. Definition Manufactured capital is made up of the infrastructure and assets that contribute to the production processes, employment, lifestyle amenity and servicing that support and maintain human and social capital. Examples include roads, buildings and machines (http://www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/the-five-capitals). Assets defined by the expert workshop participants that fit into this category are: 104 • Major centres – defined as cities and major influences on financial, human and social capitals in the catchment. Population is over 10,000 people. Tamworth is the major centre in the catchment. • Towns were not identified by expert workshops as being separated out of major centres and villages. However, identifiable trend information can be found NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 for ‘towns’ as separate from major centres or villages, therefore they have been added as an asset. Towns are those centres that have shops and banks, and act as a centre for commerce to some degree; however, influence is more local in context than that of a major centre. Population is over 1000 people but less than 10,000. Towns in the catchment have been identified as Barraba, Quirindi, Gunnedah, Werris Creek, Narrabri, Wee Waa, Manilla and Walgett. • Villages – defined as small centres of less than 1000 people that have variable levels of servicing and commerce. Some villages have just a post office or a hotel or a single shop. • Infrastructure – roads, rail, gas, electricity, public transport, urban services such as water and sewerage reticulation. Infrastructure is only considered to be of a fair level across the catchment, with issues associated with road and rail, public transport and water supplies being experienced. • Soft infrastructure – health, education, policing and social services, including recreational facilities and institutions such as local governments. Services are assumed to be adequate for the main towns and the major centre of Tamworth; however, smaller centres are poorly serviced, with distance to services being a 5. People major issue. • Lifestyle amenity – defined as the scenic amenity, opportunities for recreational activity, social opportunities, sense of safety and choice regarding lifestyle. Lifestyle amenity associated with familiarity is probably quite high given the longevity of many people’s relationship with the catchment. Many people are used to, and find appealing, the highly agriculturalised nature of the catchment. Reduced recreational opportunity is evident due to the decline in the health and naturalness of many areas, particularly rivers and streams. People can still choose to live rural, semi-rural or urbanised lifestyles, and areas of natural beauty and opportunities to ‘tree-change’ exist. Trend in condition The following trends were identified by the expert workshop participants and have been substantiated via a literature review. Those assets where information was not available have been noted and this analysis will rely on the opinion of the expert workshop. Where a trend was not identified, this has also been noted. Asset Trend Notes on trend Reference Major centres Up Tamworth continuing to grow. Namoi 2030 Draft Report Towns Down Not identified as an asset by expert workshops; however, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data interrogation shows a decrease in population towns. 4 of the 7 identified towns declined in population as differing from major centres and villages. Namoi 2030 Draft Report Villages Up Down according to expert workshops, but results for villages from ABS data interrogation shows an increase in population in almost half of the 18 villages. Namoi 2030 Draft Report Infrastructure No trend noted No trend noted by expert workshop but literature shows that it is location sensitive but generally stable to up. Namoi 2030 Draft Report Lifestyle amenity No trend noted Highly dependent on location and individual No reference wants and needs. 105 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 5. People Impacts of continuing trends Impacts of continuing trends are viewed in light of how the trend might affect or lessen the catchment’s capacity to adapt to change. ‘Adaptive capacity’ in this context is defined as a process, action or outcome in a system (household, community, group, sector, region, country) in order for the system to better cope with, manage or adjust to some changing condition, stress, hazard, risk or opportunity (Smit and Wandel 2006). Results are as follows: Asset Trend Impact on adaptive capacity Major centres Up Major centres provide servicing and nodes of expertise and intellectual capacity that can assist in adaptation. Alternatively they can draw resources away from smaller centres, leaving those areas less able to cope with change and shocks. Towns Down Variable impacts, as they do provide a node of servicing and intellectual capacity and social cohesion. They tend to develop strong cultural identities over time that can impede willingness to engage with change and alternative futures. Villages Up As villages tend to be more vulnerable to change and shocks, it could be argued that they should be less resilient. However, villages are often well practised at surviving under less than ideal circumstances and can show greater adaptive capacity than larger centres. Infrastructure No trend noted Infrastructure is essential to adaptive capacity, particularly infrastructure that provides movement and communication certainty. Lifestyle amenity No trend noted If people are happy with where they live, they are more likely to solve problems where they live. Valued aspects of lifestyle amenity can inhibit willingness to accept change, particularly in relation to new industries that cause growth and impact on natural features. Drivers and threats The elements that lead to changes in the sizes and cultures of cities, towns and villages are a science in themselves. The difference between a major centre and a town is often historical, based on opportunities being exploited or missed, and sometimes dependent on the decision of a particular person involved in the planning or development of a centre, infrastructure or industry. However, for the purposes of this exercise, generalised drivers of change to each asset have been proposed. Asset Trend Drivers of change Major centres Up Migration, infrastructure, industry, soft infrastructure, water supply, available land area, proximity to other places, lifestyle amenity, imported capital, economic diversity, intellectual capital, leadership. Towns Down Migration, infrastructure, industry, soft infrastructure, water supply, available land area, proximity to other places, lifestyle amenity, sense of belonging, imported capital, economic diversity, intellectual capital, leadership. Villages Up Migration, infrastructure, water supply, available land area, proximity to other places, lifestyle amenity, sense of belonging, intellectual capital, leadership, social cohesion, shared purpose, mixture of ages and sexes. . Infrastructure No trend noted Economic activity, funding, population size, disasters. Lifestyle amenity No trend noted Development, economic activity, industry, population size, economic diversity, available land area, water supply, soft infrastructure. 106 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Conceptual model Nil. Thresholds known, suspected or possible There is very little information available regarding the thresholds that apply to manufactured capital. It is likely, however, that thresholds regarding manufactured capital will be easier to quantify than those that may exist in relation to human and social capital. Again the thresholds listed here include those that have been posited by other authors in the literature, but not always in terms of them being a threshold. They are also mostly the ideas of these authors; they are proposed as a starting point for discussions about thresholds relating to the Namoi Catchment’s manufactured capital and are not a positive position of certainty. The thresholds in this section relate mainly to system collapse rather than perhaps reaching an alternative regime. 5. People 5.4 People asset – financial capital Definition Financial capital is money in its simplest terms, including cash, equity and investment. Examples include shares, bonds or banknotes. Financial capital is extremely important in enabling other types of capital to be owned and traded, but has no real value in itself (http://www. forumforthefuture.org/projects/the-five-capitals). Assets defined by the expert workshop participants that fit into this category are: • Imported capital – the money that can be imported into the catchment by attracting investor dollars. There is no measure of imported capital available at this time. • Economic diversity – the diversity of sources that contribute to the catchment economy as whole, generally measured by industry. Economic diversity is low, with a high dependency on dryland and irrigated agriculture. Close to 50% of the economy is directly or indirectly supported by agriculture. • Distribution of wealth – referring to how equitable the distribution of wealth is across the catchment or whether there is a ‘rich getting richer and poor getting poorer’ divide operating. No data is available regarding the distribution of wealth across the catchment, however, as 71% of all income in the catchment derives from wages, with only 14% of all income attributed to owner business and investment. Therefore it may be argued that wealth has a fairly even distribution. It must be noted that the Aboriginal community experiences a high degree of injustice and is poorer, less healthy and less able to take up economic opportunities than the rest of the population. Also important is that many farming and grazing families live well below the poverty line in times of drought or low commodity prices. • Available money – not identified by expert workshops, but an important asset to provide possibilities for human and social assets to adapt. The gap between the estimated payments to households and their expenditure has become much larger than it was prior to 2005. • Transferability of wealth – not identified by expert workshops, but an important asset to the ability of people to move or change. For example, while a farm may be a form of wealth it is not readily transferable. For a farm to be realised as available money, it either has to be sold or recognised as being of worth by a lending institution. Currently, property values are high, so farm asset transferability is also high. No measure is available for transferability of wealth for average householders or industries. Known Nil. Strongly suspected 1) Industry or population expansion beyond infrastructure capability. There is a level of population and industry that current infrastructure can support (including water infrastructure). A suspected threshold occurs in the critical mass of population or industry exceeding infrastructure capacity, with the potential to collapse themselves, infrastructure or other industries. 2) Major centre expansion beyond water availability. This is a strongly suspected threshold in the Namoi, as Tamworth already needs to consider its development and growth in regard to water availability. There will be a critical level of expansion available to Tamworth that risks crossing a threshold in relation to water availability and security. It is unlikely that crossing this threshold will result in system collapse, but it will certainly impact on the way that water is used and the lifestyle amenity of the population of the city in a way that will not easily be reversed. 3) Population declines below a critical mass. This threshold supposes that there are a critical number of people that are needed to keep a village, town or major centre operating as it currently does. Possible Development exceeds levels associated with lifestyle amenity. This threshold proposes that there is a threshold in development that means a certain amount can occur before the lifestyle amenity of those living and working in the catchment is compromised to a degree that they are likely to either leave the catchment or lose touch with their sense of belonging. 107 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 5. People Trend in condition The following trends were identified by the expert workshop participants and have been substantiated via a literature review. Those assets where information was not available have been noted and this analysis will rely on the opinion of the expert workshop. Where a trend was not identified, this has also been noted. Asset Trend Notes on trend Reference Imported capital Up Wealthy people buying land in the catchment. No reference available Economic diversity Up Particularly around Tamworth. Data sources Draft Namoi 2030 Report report low and stable economic diversity. Distribution of wealth Up More disparity in distribution of wealth but everybody better off overall. No reference for disparity but Draft Namoi 2030 Report confirms that most are better off Available money No trend noted – not identified by expert workshops If everybody is better off, it could be assumed that they have more available money. Counter to this, levels of household debt are very high... Draft Namoi 2030 Report – bigger gap between the estimated payments to households and their expenditure. Also increases in household debt Transferability of wealth No trend noted – not identified by expert workshops Probably no change as wealth is still traditionally tied up in farms and property which are not readily transferable in time of crisis. No reference Impacts of continuing trend Impacts of continuing trends are viewed in light of how the trend might affect or lessen the catchment’s capacity to adapt to change. ‘Adaptive capacity’ in this context is defined as a process, action or outcome in a system (household, community, group, sector, region, country) in order for the system to better cope with, manage or adjust to some changing condition, stress, hazard, risk or opportunity (Smit and Wandel 2006). Results are as follows: Asset Trend Impact on adaptive capacity Imported capital Up Provides funding and economic impetus for improvements in manufactured capital. May have a negative effect on social cohesion, shared history and shared purpose. Economic diversity Up Positive, in that it provides options in times of stress. Not all eggs are in one basket, so if one industry collapses there may be an opportunity to expand in other areas. Economic diversity that is too high can lead to a fracturing of the economy such that no one industry can achieve critical mass and therefore sustain itself. Distribution of wealth Up Tied closely to equity and self-knowledge, in that fairness and an understanding of own capacity will assist in engagement with change. Available money No trend noted Purely logistical and positive influence as it means people have choices and can self-fund adaptation. Transferability of wealth No trend noted Positive to a degree, as it provides people with access to available money; however, if taken to the extreme would result in ‘nomadic’ communities that have no ownership or investment in the catchment. Drivers and threats Drivers and threats to economic structures and personal wealth are well documented in many economic studies. However, for the purposes of this exercise, generalised drivers of change to each asset have been proposed. 108 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 5. People Asset Trend Drivers of change Imported capital Up Investment opportunity. Economic diversity Up Number of industries, natural resources, intellectual capacity, skills, knowledge and data. Distribution of wealth Up Policy, industry, equity. Available money No trend noted Available income, employment, debt levels, commodity prices, subsidies and grants. Transferability of wealth No trend noted Levels of investment in fixed assets, wealth and income. Conceptual model 3) Level of dependence on a vulnerable resource (Marshall 2005). This threshold refers to the degree to which communities in the Namoi Catchment are dependent on agriculture, which is vulnerable to climate change as a slow driver, and to shocks from commodity prices and policy decisions. Nil. Thresholds known, suspected or possible There is very little information available regarding the thresholds that apply to financial capital. It is likely, however, that thresholds regarding financial capital will be easier to quantify than those that may exist in relation to human and social capital. Possible 1) Skewed distribution of wealth such that a ‘second class’ of citizen is established. 2) Household income to debt level. This threshold refers to the recent experience in the United States where household equity and inability to service debt led to people walking away from their houses. While it is a doom and gloom threshold, it should be noted that this has happened in Australia’s history. 3 Property value (either farm or house) declines below equity levels. This is similar to the household income to debt level thresholds, but referring to farm equity. ‘Walking off’ land because land values and commodity prices have slumped completely has occurred in Australia’s history. 4) Length and frequency of shock/crisis. This threshold supposes that there is a threshold nature in the drivers and shocks themselves. If sustained or frequent shocks or crises occur, it can be assumed that available resources including energy and human capital will be used up, leaving the system more vulnerable to the next hit. Again, the thresholds listed here include those that have been posited by other authors in the literature, but not always in terms of them being a threshold. They are also mostly the ideas of these authors; they are proposed as a starting point for discussions about thresholds relating to the Namoi Catchment’s financial capital and are not a positive position of certainty. Known Nil. Strongly suspected 1) Farm income to debt ratios (Walker et al 2009). This threshold was initially proposed in relation to the Goulburn-Broken Catchment in Victoria as relating to the proportion of a farm that becomes salinised, the costs of capital and inputs and product prices. For the Namoi Catchment, farm income and debt ratio thresholds are likely to be dependent on water availability and pricing, costs of capital and product prices. 2) State of infrastructure (Walker et al 2009). This threshold was initially proposed in relation to the Goulburn-Broken Catchment in Victoria as relating to the state of irrigation infrastructure and the need to reinvest. In the Namoi Catchment, the threshold does not apply to irrigation infrastructure, as most irrigators pump from the river, meaning that irrigation infrastructure is a private investment. The threshold in this instance relates to infrastructure more generally (road, rail, water supply, sewerage etc.). There is a threshold in condition and population dynamics that suggests that infrastructure can reach a point where it is extremely expensive to bring back up to standard, effectively crossing a threshold and forcing infrastructure into a new regime which may have significant impacts on imported capital and economic diversity. 5.5 People asset – relationship to natural resources Expert workshop participants in 2010 were also asked to consider how the natural resource base underpinned people, industries and communities. The group also considered how the trends in natural resources would impact on people. The key points are drawn out here, but the full report of workshop outcomes is available in Appendix K: Results from expert workshops. It was agreed that declines in ecosystem connectivity, woody vegetation cover, wetlands, species populations and intact native vegetation communities would have the result of: 109 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 • • • • • • • • • reducing farm profitability impacting on aesthetics creating greater regulatory pressure greater peer pressure threatening the identity of both Aboriginal communities and everybody else reducing options or choices of future generations reducing tourism opportunities impacting on spirituality a general decline in social and emotional wellbeing. 5. People Health services, education services and community social life respectively are identified as the key drivers underpinning the decision to stay within rural communities. Analysis has shown that there is a possible threshold effect in relation to wellbeing and adaptive capacity which warrants further investigation. Importantly it has also shown that individual levels of adaptive capacity and wellbeing are good predictors for community-level adaptive capacity and wellbeing. Key findings emerging from the survey of the Namoi Catchment community (when compared to other regional areas) are as follows: It was also noted that the degree to which any one of these outcomes was realised would depend on the particularities of farming and grazing systems and an individual’s sensitivity to loss. The Catchment Community of the Namoi is more likely (of several regions studied), to be satisfied about their future security, and feel that they have a strong and viable future ahead. The Namoi Community was, however, less likely to agree that their community has all the expertise that it needs. Water was an important theme, which reflects the role water plays in the Namoi Catchment. In particular, people felt that community and industry rely on access to groundwater and that the quality and quantity of groundwater available is sufficient for their own needs. Furthermore it emerged that people feel that water for the environment is just as important as provision of water for agriculture, towns and industry, and that water allocation should change so enough water is available for the natural environment. The general downward trend in surface and groundwater assets was a cause of concern, and it was agreed that it would ultimately result in: • • • • • • • • • no drinking water no irrigation loss of tourism loss of recreation opportunity reduced habitation possibilities towns and cities collapsing due to no water reduced economic activity no water for industry social cohesion collapse as water becomes a scarce resource • loss of identity • impact on spirituality • a general decline in social and emotional wellbeing. There was also strong support for protecting and managing the remaining wetlands in the region. In particular: Health and wellbeing It was noted that people may become paralysed when confronted by significant numbers of downward-pointing trend arrows relating to critically underpinning resources such as water. The group expressed its belief that maintaining capacity and engagement in this situation is extremely important. • More likely to be satisfied about their future security (53%) Community efficacy • More likely to agree that water allocation should change so enough water is available for the natural environment (52% strongly agree/agree) and less likely to agree that their community has all the expertise that it needs (56% strongly disagree/ disagree). Soils were considered by the group to be generally underpinning of all activity in the catchment. Because soils information was presented based on soil type that relates to productivity, the workshop agreed that the community and sectoral implications could be quite tightly and quantitatively tied to trend information. It should also be noted that most soils trends presented to the group were stable or up. Wellbeing and community connectedness • More likely to agree that if unable to drive they would be able to get to the nearest regional centre using other means (42% agree) and that Coal Seam Gas exploration and extraction is increasing the likelihood that an individual would leave their community (14% strongly agree) Adaptive capacity and wellbeing Assessment and benchmarking of social wellbeing and adaptive capacity for the Namoi undertaken in 2012 found the following that members of the Namoi Community perceive themselves as having high levels of adaptive capacity, social capital and wellbeing. There was less agreement regarding the adequacy of local leadership. Future security of the community 110 • More likely to agree that community has a strong and viable future ahead (77% strongly agree/agree) 5. People NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Environment Figure 124: Relationship between stress and subjective wellbeing • More likely than total average to agree that it is important to protect and manage the remaining wetlands in the region (76% agree), the quality and quantity of groundwater available is sufficient for their needs (71% agree), provision of water for the environment is just as important as provision of water for agriculture, towns and industry (68% agree), and the community and industry rely on access to groundwater (67% agree). The extent to which adaptive capacity and wellbeing were related can be analysed by looking at factors known to impact on wellbeing, such as gender, age, existing health status and income along with feeling safe and supported and by the ability to work with others, taking into account the perceived efficacy of community leaders. The following variables are considered important: • • • • • • gender and age income self-assessed health financial and emotional impact of major weather events cumulative life stressors individual adaptive capacity social support feeling safe collective adaptive capacity community leadership. Source: Cummins (2010) Figure 125: Examining relationship between adaptive capacity, wellbeing and ability to work together 1,600 1,400 1,200 No of respondents • • • • 800 600 400 According to surveys and analysis undertaken, individual adaptive capacity (23%) would appear to be predictive of subjective wellbeing, followed by feeling safe (19%), age (15%), the ability to work together (14%) and social support (13%). Whether or not thresholds in adaptive capacity and wellbeing can be identified remains a challenge. According to Cummins’ theorised model (see below) there is a relationship between stress and subjective wellbeing. 1,000 200 1 2 3 4 5 1 = High 5 = Low Wellbeing Individual adap�ve capacity Ability to work together Source: Hogan et al (in prep) The results that emerged through surveys in 2012 support the thesis that a possible threshold effect exists in relationship to wellbeing and adaptive capacity, and that this relationship warrants further examination. 5.6 What does all this mean? It can be concluded that information regarding the status and trend of key people assets across the catchment is not readily available. Some very clear issues have, however, emerged as a result of the expert workshop processes and literature review. These are: • People of the catchment are significantly underpinned by their natural resources for economic activity, wellbeing and social cohesion. 111 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 • Most of the natural resources are trending down in condition and availability, indicating key sources of vulnerability across the catchment. • People asset trends are variable, and particularities are important to how the people system functions. A detailed systems model of the people system is likely to be so complex that it is meaningless or almost immediately out of date on completion. • No single people asset stands out as being critically underpinning and sustaining of the majority of assets. However, an obvious observation is that there need to be people to sustain the people system, and the presence or absence of people is tightly linked in dually sustaining relationships with economies and natural resources. • Dependence on agriculture within the catchment is very high. Agriculture is vulnerable to declines in soil health and water quality and availability, as well as commodity price and policy shocks. There are likely to be changes in soil health and water quality and availability related to the slow driver of climate change. Consequently, a focus on adaptive capacity in agriculture and related industries will serve the catchment well. • An overwhelming take-home message from the literature reviewed was the importance of a ‘sense of place’ to people and societies. • There is no clearly defined and meaningful threshold relating to the people assets. Rather, a focus on the generalities of building adaptive capacity and sustaining wellbeing will be carried forward into the Namoi Catchment Action Plan. 5. People Figure 127: Social-ecological sub-regions identified for all NSW catchments Source: NSW Natural Resources Commission For each sub-region, a conceptual model of the socialecological system is presented, based on the template outlined below in Figure 128. Figure 128: Template for sub-region social-ecological system conceptual models 5.7 Sub-regional resilience assessment The Namoi Catchment has within it three socialecological sub-regions. Figure 126 below shows the distribution of these across the Namoi Catchment. Figure 127 shows how these align with the social-ecological systems identified for other neighbouring catchments. Figure 126: Social-ecological sub-regions of the Namoi Catchment The following pages provide a brief summary of some of the main socio-economic trends for each of the socialecological systems identified for the Namoi Catchment (i.e. the Tablelands, Slopes and Plains sub-regions). For a detailed analysis of the resilience of the socialecological sub-regions identified for the Namoi Catchment, please refer to Namoi CAP Supplementary Document 2 – Namoi Catchment Sub-regional Resilience Assessment. 112 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 5. People Tablelands – conceptual model Figure 129: Conceptual model of the Tablelands social-ecological system Tablelands – main socio-economic trends related industries. The level of employment in agriculture is similar to that in the other catchment areas (except Tamworth), as is the proportion of over-55 year olds who work in agriculture. In terms of other industry types, the Tablelands has seen growth in employment across most areas since 2001, indicating diversification away from agriculture. The number of people in the Tablelands sub-region with a tertiary qualification is higher than the catchment average. The Tablelands sub-region has the smallest population of the three sub-regions in the Namoi Catchment. In addition, the population has remained static since 2001, has a relatively low proportion of Aboriginal people, and has a higher proportion of people of working age. The population is also the most ethnically diverse (based on the number of people with at least one parent born overseas) in the Namoi Catchment. In terms of employment, the Tablelands sub-region is reliant on agriculture as its main industry. However, unlike the other sub-regions, much of the agricultural activity in the Tablelands sub-region is associated with livestock and Finally, the unemployment rate in the Tablelands subregion in December 2012 was 4.45%, the lowest in the catchment and below the NSW average for the same time period. Despite this, the proportion of unemployed under25 year olds in the Tablelands is similar to the rest of the catchment. 113 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 5. People Slopes – conceptual model Figure 130: Conceptual model of the Slopes social-ecological system. Slopes – main socio-economic trends The population of the Slopes sub-region has grown in the decade between 2001 and 2011. In the same time period, the Aboriginal population has grown, but is less in Tamworth than it is in the other areas. In addition, ethnic diversity is similar to the rest of the catchment and well below the NSW average. The population is also ageing, but there are far fewer dependent people in Tamworth than in the rest of the Slopes sub-region, which has a dependency ratio above the Namoi Catchment average. The Slopes sub-region has a high proportion of employment in agriculture in areas outside of Tamworth. In contrast, Tamworth has a much more diverse economy, reflecting its role as a major regional centre. Because of this, employment in most industries has increased since 2001 in the Slopes sub-region as a whole. Tamworth also has a more educated population than other areas of Slopes sub-region, and the overall proportion of those with tertiary qualifications has been increasing. Finally, the unemployment rate in the Slopes sub-region was just over 6%, which is the second highest in the Namoi Catchment (behind Plains sub-region). 114 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 5. People Plains – conceptual model Figure 131: Conceptual model of the Plains social-ecological system Plains – main socio-economic trends The Plains sub-region has a declining, ageing population. It has a much higher proportion of Aboriginal people than the rest of the catchment, and this proportion has been growing since 2001. In terms of other ethnic diversity, the Plains sub-region is the least diverse of the Namoi Catchment, and is far less diverse when compared to NSW as a whole. Finally, the population appears to be becoming more diverse in its age distribution, but this may be due to the increase in older people with a corresponding decrease in people of working age (as indicated by the high dependency ratio). The most important industry in the Plains is agriculture, and it has the most diverse agricultural base in the catchment. Despite this, employment in agriculture has decreased since 2001. While the proportion of people with tertiary qualifications has been growing, the unemployment rate is also the highest of all sub-regions in the Namoi Catchment. 115 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 5.8 General resilience – socioeconomic analysis The following pages provide a brief summary of some of the main socio-economic trends identified for the Namoi Catchment based on attributes of general resilience. For a detailed analysis of the general resilience of the Namoi Catchment based on socio-economic indicators, please refer to Namoi CAP Supplementary Document 3 – General Resilience Assessment. The resilience indicator data for the Namoi is summarised in the table below. It is compared with equivalent data (where available) for NSW as a whole. Table 5 below provides a consolidated baseline of socioeconomic resilience indicator levels in the Namoi at the time of the 2011 Census. Table 5 Summary levels of socio-economic indices for general resilience in the Namoi Catchment Resilience Indicator Namoi Catchment NSW Namoi indicator ranking relative to NSW 5. People 5.9 References Abel T. (2003). Understanding complex human ecosystems: the case of ecotourism on Bonaire. Conservation Ecology, 7(3), 10. Agbola F.W. (2003). Regional hidden unemployment disparity and persistence in Australia. The Full Employment Imperative – 5th Path to Full Employment Conference and 10th National Conference on Unemployment. The University of Newcastle, Newcastle. Alston M. and Kent J. (2004). Coping with a crisis: human services in times of drought. Rural Society, 14(3), 214– 227. Anderies J.M., Walker B.H. and Kinzig A.P. (2006). Fifteen weddings and funeral: case studies and resilience-based management. Ecology and Society, 11(1), 21. Broderick K. (2007). Getting a handle on social-ecological systems in catchments: the nature and importance of environmental perception. 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Ecology and Society, 17(2), 22. 118 Appendices NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices Appendix A: Introduction – critical thresholds identified in the 2010 resilience assessment of the Namoi Catchment Appendix B: Biodiversity – background information on the species and ecological communities of the Namoi Catchment Biodiversity • Woody vegetation cover (% remaining of original extent) – 30%. • Woody vegetation cover (% remaining of original extent) – 70%. • 69% of regional vegetation communities maintain 30% extent (i.e. No further vegetation communities drop below the 30% threshold). • Population size of individual species (generic – not specified for each species currently). • Habitat area for individual species or populations (generic – not specified for each species currently). • Area of endangered or vulnerable community (generic – not specified for each species currently). • Presence of individual invasive species (i.e. Presence/absence is the threshold). • Population extent of individual invasive species. Land • Groundcover is at least 70% Water • Surface water flow quantity is at 66% of natural (predevelopment) condition with a sensitivity to natural frequency and duration. • River geomorphic condition is good (against benchmark condition). • Recruitment of riparian vegetation is higher than attrition of individual trees. • Agricultural and urban supply aquifers do not cross into lower levels of beneficial use. • Alluvial aquifers are not drawn down below historical maximum drawdown levels. • Groundwater is within 30 m of surface where there are identified GDEs. • Wetlands are not drained, dammed or otherwise physically modified. People • Assets in the people theme were highly variable and interrelated with each other to such a high degree that no ‘underpinning’ assets stood out. As such we could not identify thresholds that had an overarching effect on all people assets. Literature does support a general focus on the key areas of wellbeing and adaptive capacity The following is an extract from the Namoi Conservation Strategy 2008. The references, appendices and maps referred to are available on request from Namoi CMA. Biodiversity of Vegetation Communities and Flora The variety of landscapes, soil types and altitude found throughout the Namoi region results in a great diversity of flora. There are 1,878 species of native plants known to occur in the Namoi (Appendix C; Map 11), 36 of which are listed as threatened in NSW (Threatened Species Conservation (TSC) Act) and 50 listed as regionally rare (ROTAP; Table 1). The 497 exotic species of plants in the Namoi comprise 21% of the total number of flora species, subspecies, or varieties (Appendix C). As a consequence of the large variation in altitude, rainfall, climate, rock types and soils, there is a wide range of vegetation types throughout the catchment. In the simplest terms structurally, the vegetation in the western part of the catchment is primarily open woodland, shrubland and grassland. In the central and eastern parts, there are grasslands and open woodlands on the plains and lower slopes, with heaths, woodlands and forest communities on the hill slopes and ranges that form the margins of the catchment. Dominant features of the landscape are the large floodplain areas, particularly towards the north west and west and within the Gunnedah Basin, the massive sandstone plateaus and escarpments of the northern Warrumbungles, the Pilliga and parts of the southern flanks of Mt Kaputar, the volcanic landscapes of the Liverpool Range and Mt Kaputar areas, the granites associated with the Moonbi and parts of the Nandewars and the serpentine belt. The Pilliga sandstones further influence large expanses of lands surrounding the central plateaus where erosion of the sands has caused large outwash areas that have mixed with the floodplains that further caused variation in the communities found. Riparian zones along major rivers and creeks are often dominated by River Red Gum, River Oak and Black Teatree. Several types of rainforests occur including vine thickets, dry rainforest in gorges and rocky slopes, ancient Ooline communities and, in areas of higher rainfall, subtropical and cool temperate rainforests can be found. At the highest altitudes to the east and on the top of Mt Kaputar, subalpine communities can be found, 120 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 dominated by snow gums, manna gums and peppermints. A variety of wetlands are found due to this diversity of landscapes, which include upland lagoons and peatlands and lowland ephemeral lakes and oxbow systems of the Namoi, or internal drainage lakes such as Lake Goran. On shallow soils associated with sandstone and acid volcanic rock, platforms or granite outcrops and shrublands and heaths are found often comprised of highly restricted or unusually distributed species. Appendices Table 1. Threatened (TSC Act) and rare (ROTAP) species and subspecies of flora that occur in the Namoi. (V: vulnerable; E: endangered, E** previously thought extinct) In the west, the landscape is comparatively flat. Flooding exerts a significant influence on the distribution of vegetation. Some communities, such as Coolabah, River Red Gum, Myall, Brigalow, Belah, Lignum and Black Box, depend on flooding for regeneration, whereas others, such as Mitchell and Bluegrass dominated grasslands, are killed by sustained inundation. Further east, geology, soils and microclimate are the major influences on the distribution of vegetation communities. Fire is also of importance in structuring the types of species and communities that are found. While fires are less important and less frequent in many of the floodplain areas they can play an important role in some shrubby and grassy woodlands and forests. TSC Act Threatened Taxa Acacia flocktoniae Acacia pubifolia Asterolasia sp. Bertya sp. Boronia ruppii Cadellia pentastylis Chiloglottis playptera Cyperus conicus Dichanthium setosum Digitaria porrecta Diuris pedunculata Diurus tricolor Eucalyptus mckieana Eucalyptus nicholii Eucalyptus oresbia Euphrasia arguta Euphrasia rupture Hakea pulvinifera Haloragis exalata subsp. veluntina Homoranthus bornhardtiensis Homoranthus prolixus Lepidium aschersonii Monotaxis macophylla Philotheca ericifolia Polyala linariifolia Pomaderris queenslandica Pterostylis cobarensis Rulingia procumbens Rulingia prostrata Sida rohlenae Stenopetalus velutinum Swainsona murrayana Tasmannia glaucifolia Tasmannia purpurascens Thesium australe Tylophora linearis Status V E E V E V V E V E E V V V V E ** Extinct E V ROTAP Listed Taxa Acacia tessellata Acacia williamsiana Amphibromus whitei Asperula charophyton Asperula charophyton Asterolasia hexapetala Bothriochloa biloba Caladenia subtilis Callistemon flavovirens Callistemon pungens Chiloglottis palachila Cryptocarya dorrigoensis Derwentia arenaria Discaria pubescens Dodonaea hirsuta Dodonaea rhombifolia Eleocharis blakeana Eucalyptus elliptica Eucalyptus malacoxylon E Eucalyptus nandewarica V V E Eucalyptus quinniorum Eucalyptus youmanii V E E V V E E Extinct V V V V E Euphrasia orthocheila subsp. orthocheila Goodenia macbarronii Goodenia pusilliflora Grevillea granulifera Hibbertia kaputarensis Isotropis foliosa Leionema viridiflorum Leptospermum argenteum Lomandra patens Macrozamia diplomera Macrozamia stenomera Persoonia cuspidifera Picris barbarorum Picris eichleri Pimelea ciliolaris Plectranthus suaveolens Prasophyllum campestre Prostanthera cruciflora Pterostylis woollsii Pultenaea setulosa Rulingia hermanniifolia Sauropus ramosissimus Schoenus centralis Senecio macranthus Thelionema grande Vittadinia cervicularis var. occidentalis Westringia sericea Zieria odorifera 121 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Biodiversity of Fauna Appendices due to its aggressive nature. It is highly likely that this species will continue to increase both its range and abundance throughout the urban and rural areas of the region (Andren 2004). The Eurasian blackbird is also likely to increase in range and abundance in urban and rural areas (Andren 2004). The variety of habitat types found throughout the Namoi region lends itself to a wide diversity of fauna. There are 482 species of native terrestrial vertebrates known to occur in the Namoi, including 28 species of amphibians, 284 species of birds, 68 species of native mammals and 102 species of reptiles (Appendix D; Map 12). Seventeen introduced species occur, including six species of birds and 11 species of mammals. Nine species of nocturnal birds occur in the Namoi. The most common species were the tawny frogmouth (Podargus strigoides), Australian owlet-nightjar (Aegotheles cristatus) and the southern boobook owl (Ninox novaeseelandiae). The vulnerable barking owl (Ninox connivens) is likely represented in a greater numbers than normally encountered due to regular surveys being conducted throughout the Pilliga and southern Namoi region. Biodiversity estimates for the Namoi were compiled from records found in the Atlas of NSW Wildlife (Department of Environment and Climate Change) and the Birds Australia Atlas (Appendix D). Any analysis of diversity and abundance of fauna must take into account the shortcomings of available data. Conspicuous and iconic species will always appear more abundant than cryptic species, and species which occur in close proximity to human population centres and in National Parks or reserves will be recorded more frequently than those in remote regions. Furthermore, rare or endangered species for which surveys are regularly conducted (e.g. regent honeyeater) appear proportionally more frequently in the data. Some threatened species that are known to occur in the Namoi have not been recorded in the Atlas of NSW Wildlife, presumably due to their rarity (e.g. tusked frog population in the Nandewar and New England Tablelands Bioregions – listed as endangered). The seven most common species of amphibian recorded in the Namoi are the ornate burrowing frog (Limnodynastes ornatus), green tree frog (Litoria caerulea), eastern banjo frog (Limnodynastes dumerilii), spotted grass frog (Limnodynastes tasmaniensis), broad-palmed frog (Litoria latopalmata), Peron’s tree frog (Litoria peronii), and the common eastern froglet (Crinia signifera). Two hundred and seventy-five (275) native and six introduced species of diurnal birds occur in the Namoi (Appendix D). The most common species encompassed those found in high numbers throughout Australia and which do well in anthropogenically influenced habitats (Australian magpie (Gymnorhina tibicen), galah (Cacatua roseicapilla), and Willie wagtail (Rhipidura leucophrys)). The noisy miner (Manorina melanocephala), which occurs as a pest species in many remnant urban and suburban habitat (see section 6.2.15), is the sixth most common diurnal bird in the Namoi. The six introduced bird species are, in order of decreasing frequency, the common starling (Sturnus vulgaris), house sparrow (Passer domesticus), rock dove (Columba livia), spotted turtle-dove (Streptopelia chinensis), common myna (Acridotheres tristis), and Eurasian or common blackbird (Turdus merula). All are species of disturbed environments and most are well-established, although the Eurasian blackbird was found in low numbers in the Namoi. Of these species, it is the common myna that is most likely to have detrimental effects on native species Ten species of arboreal marsupial occur in the Namoi, with the most common recorded being the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) and the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecular). Vulnerable listed koalas are present throughout the region, with a large population found around the town of Gunnedah (Map 14). The occurrence of koalas near human populations likely results in it being recorded in the Atlas of NSW Wildlife more frequently than other arboreal mammals. The common brushtail possum occurs in large numbers throughout most of eastern Australia, however, its numbers are recorded as regionally declining in the Brigalow Belt bioregion (Pennay et al. 2002). The most common of the 15 species of native small ground mammals in the Namoi is the yellow-footed antechinus (Antechinus flavipes), with other species recorded rarely. The Pilliga mouse (Pseudomys pilligaensis) is almost endemic to the Namoi, found only in the Pilliga forests and a few small remnants to the south. The introduced black rat (Rattus rattus) and the house mouse (Mus musculus) are found in relatively large numbers. Sixteen native medium-to-large mammals occur in the Namoi with the short-beaked echidna (Tachyglossus aculeatus), eastern grey kangaroo (Macropus giganteus), black-striped wallaby (Macropus dorsalis), common wombat (Vombatus ursinus), and the swamp wallaby (Wallabia bicolour) recorded in the greatest numbers. Significant populations of two endangered wallabies occur in the Namoi. A large population of black-striped wallabies is located north of the Pilliga and a large community of brush-tailed rock wallabies (Petrogale penicillata) can be found in Warrumbungle National Park. Introduced species comprise a large number of the large mammal records. The fox (Vulpes vulpes) is the most common species of large mammal in the Namoi (native or introduced). The cat (Felis catus) and the dingo/domestic dog (Canis lupus) represent other introduced predators in the Namoi. Introduced herbivores include the brown 122 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices hare (Lepus capensis), goat (Capra hircus), horse (Equus caballus), pig (Equus caballus), deer (Cervus sp.) and the rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). Biodiversity Surrogates Vertebrate Fauna (Andren 2004), and the Vertebrate Fauna Survey for Brigalow Belt South (Pennay et al. 2002). Of the 27 species of bats recorded, the little forest bat (Vespadelus vulturnus), Gould’s wattled bat (Chalinolobus gouldii), and the lesser long-eared bat (Nyctophilus geoffroyi) are the most common. Microbat taxonomy is still evolving and many species are still undescribed or unnamed. It is probably that several more species will be added to this list in the future. Flying foxes, including the little red flying-fox (Pteropus scapulatus) and the greyheaded flying-fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) are recorded infrequently in the Namoi. Eighty-six (86) regionally significant species of flora (including 36 threatened species (TSC Act) and 50 rare species (ROTAP)), comprise 4.6% of the 1878 native species or subspecies of flora recorded in the Namoi (Table 2, Appendix E). There are four endangered plant species that only occur in the Namoi Catchment. One of these, Hakea pulvinifera, is only known from a single stand on a hill near the Namoi River. This species appears to be a relict population from pre-historic times when southeastern Australia was much drier. The closest relatives of the species today are all confined to the arid zone. Another species, Boronia ruppii, is confined to serpentinite near Woodsreef. Worldwide, serpentinite outcrops are recognised by their often endemic floras. Rupp’s Boronia is a valuable local example of this tendency. The new species Bertya sp. found in the Moonbi ranges and at Ironbark Nature Reserve is also endemic to the Namoi and is currently listed as Vulnerable. There are 13 other species of endangered flora, 20 species listed as vulnerable and three species that were previously thought to be extinct but have recently been rediscovered (Euphrasia arguta, Euphrasia ruptuara, and Stenopetalum velutinum). Only two native species of turtles, Bell’s turtle (Elseya belli) and the eastern snake-necked turtle (Chelodina longicollis) are recorded in the Namoi. The low number of records (4 and 38 respectively) for these species may be due more to their cryptic nature rather than small populations, although Bell’s turtle is listed as vulnerable. Turtle records would need to be obtained from targeted surveys of rivers, creeks and dams and would be missed in regular surveys of woodlands and forests. Seventy-two species of lizards have been recorded in the Namoi. The most common species are the tree skink (Egernia striolata), south-eastern morethia skink (Morethia boulengeri), two-clawed worm skink (Anomalopus leuckartii), nobbi (Amphibolurus nobbi), Bynoe’s gecko (Heteronotia binoei) and the robust ctenotus (Ctenotus robustus). The only endemic species of fauna in the Namoi is the Mount Kaputar rock-skink (Ergenia sp.). Snakes are recorded infrequently in the Namoi, likely due to their cryptic nature, however, it is also likely that many snakes are rare in the region (Andren 2004). Of the 28 species of snakes recorded, the red-bellied black snake (Pseudechis porphyriacus), red-naped snake (Furina diadema), and the eastern brown snake (Pseudonaja textilis) are the most common. A large proportion of the native fauna biodiversity can be found in the Pilliga State Forest, Mount Kaputar National Park and along the New England Tablelands near Warrabah National Park. Fauna biodiversity has been incorporated into the Conservation Map Layer. Regionally Significant and Threatened Species Threatened Species, Populations and Communities are those listed under the NSW Threatened Species Conservation (TSC) Act 1995, the NSW Fisheries Management Act 1994, and the Federal Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act 1999. Regionally significant species and species that are rare or in decline have been identified from Rare or Threatened Australian Plants (ROTAP), the Nandewar There are 145 regionally significant or threatened species of fauna, comprising 30.1% of all terrestrial vertebrates (482 species) in the Namoi catchment (Appendix F). Nineteen (19) species of fauna found in the Namoi are listed as endangered under the TSC. A further 69 species are listed as Vulnerable, 46 are described as regionally significant (RS), eight are described as highly regionally significant (HRS), three species are regionally rare, and three species are described as regionally in decline (Appendix F). Two endangered populations in the Namoi are the tusked frog (Adelotus brevis) population in the Nandewar and New England Bioregions and the Australian brush turkey (Alectura lathami) population in the Nandewar and Brigalow Belt South bioregions. The only animal endemic to the Namoi is the regionally significant Mount Kaputar rock-skink (Egernia sp.). Significant fauna populations in the catchment include brush-tailed rock wallabies (Petrogale penicillata) in the Warrumbungle and Kaputar ranges, a large population of barking owls (Ninox connivens) in the Pilliga forest, blackstriped wallabies (Macropus dorsalis) in remnant Brigalow west of Narrabri, and the Pilliga mouse (Pseudomys pilligaensis), a pseudo-endemic species confined to the Pilliga Forests and a couple of reserves to the south (Map 13). The rare and endangered regent honeyeater (Xanthomyza phrygia) is at high risk due to loss of habitat and should be considered a high priority species in the Namoi. The endangered Mallee fowl (Leipoa ocellata) and an endangered population of brush turkey (Alectura lathami) have concentrated populations in the Pilliga forests and Mount 123 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Kaputar NP respectively. Koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) are an iconic threatened species listed as vulnerable in NSW (TSC Act 1995) that are abundant in some parts of the catchment. In particular, high densities of koalas are present around Gunnedah (Map 14). Appendices Table 3. Summary of interim regional vegetation class (RVC) threat categories. The far greater percentage of threatened animals in comparison to plants emphasises the greater need for animals to occupy habitats in good condition, as their resource requirements are greater. This leads us to question the traditional method of protecting the biodiversity of vegetation and assuming that animals will be protected as a result. Clearing addressing the threatening processes impacting fauna specifically is a crucial process in preserving biodiversity. There are 16 endangered ecological communities (EECs) known or predicted to occur in the Catchment (Appendix I), some of which are particularly significant. Native Vegetation on Cracking Clay Soils on the Liverpool Plains, although not reflected in the title, is essentially targeted at ensuring the persistence of Plains Grass on the Liverpool Plains. The conservation status of this community has been recognised since 1984 and recently reviewed by Lang (2008). Other EECs that are biologically highly significant are Ooline and Semi-Evergreen Vine Thicket. These communities are related, sharing a number of species, and are the most southerly expression of “Softwood Scrub” vegetation types that extend well into Queensland. The largest single block of Ooline remaining in NSW occurs near Maules Creek in the Namoi Catchment. Regional Vegetation Classes have been prioritised with respect to their threat categories (sensu, Benson 2006). Interim Regional Threat Categories (sensu Benson, 2006) were assigned for each Namoi RVC (Table 3). All six of Benson’s criteria were taken into account (Table 3, Appendix O). Criteria for geographical distribution and area of occupancy were assessed against data on % RVC in overcleared Mitchell Landscapes and % in National Parks Estate. Expert opinion was sought from Dr. John Hunter to assess criteria for community degradation, rate of decline, risk of extinction and risk of decline of functionally important species likely to play a major role in the vegetation communities. 124 Threat Category Regional Vegetation Class RVC least concern Black Cypress Pine – Orange Gum – Tumbledown Red Gum shrubby woodland, Nandewar and western New England Tablelands least concern Black Cypress Pine shrubby woodland, Brigalow Belt South least concern Box- White Cypress Pine grassy woodland In the Pilliga area and Liverpool Range, Brigalow Belt South least concern Broombush shrubland of the Pilliga region, Brigalow Belt South least concern Ironbark – Brown Bloodwood – Black Cypress Pine heathy woodland, Brigalow Belt South least concern Ironbark shrubby woodland, Brigalow Belt South least concern Narrow-leaved Ironbark – pine woodland and open forest, Nandewar and Brigalow Belt South least concern New England Blackbutt – stringybark open forest, Nandewar and western New England Tablelands least concern Stringybark open forest, Brigalow Belt South, Nandewar and western New England Tablelands least concern White Box – pine – Silver-leaved Ironbark shrubby open forest, Nandewar least concern White Box – stringybark shrubby woodlands, Brigalow Belt South and Nandewar least concern White Cypress Pine – Silver-leaved Ironbark grassy woodland, Nandewar least concern White Cypress Pine woodland on sandy loam, Darling Riverine Plains and Brigalow Belt South near threatened Bendemeer White Gum – stringybark grassy open forest, Nandewar and New England Tablelands near threatened Manna Gum ferny open forest in the Kaputar area, Nandewar near threatened Messmate moist forest of the escarpment ranges, New England Tablelands near threatened Nandewar Box – stringybark open forest in the Kaputar area, Nandewar near threatened New England Blackbutt grassy open forest, eastern New England Tablelands near threatened Pilliga Box – ironbark shrubby open forest on sandy loams, Brigalow Belt South near threatened Poplar Box – White Cypress Pine shrubby woodland, Darline Riverine Plains and Brigalow Belt South near threatened Rough-barked Apple – Blakely’s Red Gum riparian grassy woodland, Nandewar near threatened Shrubby woodland or Mallee on stoney soils, Brigalow Belt South and Nandewar NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices Threat Category Regional Vegetation Class RVC Threat Category Regional Vegetation Class RVC near threatened Sydney Blue Gum – Tallowwood tall moist shrubby forest of the escarpment ranges, New England Tablelends endangered Leopardwood woodland of alluvial plains, Darling Riverine Plains and Brigalow Belt South endangered near threatened Tea-tree shrubland in drainage lines, Nandewar and New England Tablelands Lignum – River Coobah shrubland on floodplains, Darling Riverine Plains and Brigalow Belt South vulnerable Bracteate Honey Myrtle riparian shrubland, Brigalow Belt South endangered Mountain Gum – Snow Gum open forest, Nandewar and New England Tablelands vulnerable Mugga Ironbark shrubby open forest, Nandewar endangered vulnerable New England Blackbutt – stringybark heathy open forest on granite, eastern New England Tablelands Narrow-leaved Peppermint – Wattle-leaved Peppermint open forest, eastern New England Tablelands endangered New England Blackbutt – Round-leaved Gum open forest of the escarpment ranges, New England Tablelands endangered New England Peppermint grassy woodland, New England Tablelands endangered Ooline forest, Brigalow Belt South and Nandewar endangered Plains Grass grassland, Brigalow Belt South and Nandewar endangered Poplar Box – Belah woodland, Darling Riverine Plains and Brigalow Belt South endangered Poplar Box grassy woodland on alluvial clay soils, Brigalow Belt South endangered River Red Gum riverine woodlands and forests, Darling Riverine Plains, Brigalow Belt South and Nandewar vulnerable River Oak riparian woodland, Brigalow Belt South and Nandewar vulnerable Shrublands of rocky areas, Nandewar and western New England Tablelands vulnerable Stringybark – Blakely’s Red Gum – Roughbarked Apple open forest, Nandewar and western New England Tablelands vulnerable Stringybark – spinifex woodland, Nandewar endangered Black Box woodland on floodplains, Darling Riverine Plains endangered Box – gum grassy woodland, Nandewar endangered Box – gum grassy woodland, New England Tablelands endangered Brigalow – Belah woodland on alluvial clay soil, Brigalow Belt South endangered endangered Brown Barrel tall moist forest of the escarpment ranges, New England Tablelands Semi-evergreen vine thicket, Brigalow Belt South and Nandewar endangered endangered Coolibah – Poplar Box – Belah woodland on floodplains, Darling Riverine Plains and Brigalow Belt South Snow Gum – Black Sallee grassy woodland, New England Tablelands endangered Spinifex – Bulloak hummock grassland/ woodland, Darling Riverine Plains and Brigalow Belt South endangered Dirty Gum – pine – Smooth-barked Apple open forest, northern Brigalow Belt South and Nandewar Stringybark – Blakely’s Red Gum open forest, New England Tablelands endangered Stringybark – gum – peppermint open forest of the eastern New England Tablelands endangered Dry rainforest of rocky areas, Nandewar endangered endangered Dry rainforest of the Liverpool Range, southern Brigalow Belt South and Nandewar Tall rushland, reedland or sedgeland of inland rivers, Darling Riverine Plains and Brigalow Belt South endangered Eurah shrubland of inland floodplains, Darling Riverine Plains endangered Weeping Myall open woodland, Darling Riverine Plains, Brigalow Belt South and Nandewar endangered Fens and wet heaths, Nandewar and New England Tablelands endangered White Box grassy woodland, Brigalow Belt South and Nandewar endangered Grey Box open forest, northern Nandewar and New England Tablelands endangered Wilga – Western Rosewood shrubland, Darling Riverine Plains and Brigalow Belt South endangered Inland Grey Box grassy woodland, Brigalow Belt South and Nandewar endangered Yellow Box woodland on alluvial plains, Darling Riverine Plains endangered Inland wetlands and marshes, Darling Riverine Plains and Brigalow Belt South endangered endangered Coolibah woodland of frequently flooded channels, Darling Riverine Plains 125 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendix C: Biodiversity – background information on threatening processes in the Namoi Catchment The following is an extract from the Namoi Conservation Strategy. The references, appendices and maps referred to are available on request from Namoi CMA. Seventeen key threatening processes listed in either the federal Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (1999) (EPBC) or the NSW state Threatened Species Conservation Act (1995) (TSC) potentially impact threatened fauna, flora or vegetation communities in the Namoi Catchment (Table 4). The two key threatening processes to impact the greatest number of flora and fauna species are land clearance/clearance of native vegetation (19.5% (95 species) fauna, 1.5% (29 species) flora) and inappropriate fire regimes (10.9% fauna, 1.0% flora). Modification of groundcover through fire and grazing has long been known to be one of the most important factors determining the decline and loss of substantial proportions of the Australian arid and semi-arid mammal species (Burbridge and McKenzie 1989; Morton 1990). Other key processes that impact heavily on native fauna are predation by feral cats and foxes (8.6%), removal of hollow trees (4.9%), removal of fallen timber (6.2%), and Appendices alternation to stream flow and quality (4.7%). There exists 497 species of exotic flora in the Namoi Catchment. Invasive weeds have a significant impact on flora (0.8%) and fauna (6.0%), impacting 15 and 29 species respectively. Several threatening factors were sourced from the threatened species literature that are not listed under the EPBC or TSC Act as key threatening processes, however, appear to have a significant impact on many threatened species and communities. Modification of habitat and loss or food resources through trampling and grazing by domestic stock affects 51 species of fauna and 20 species of flora. Likewise, primary poisoning of animals through the use of herbicides, pesticides and other chemicals and secondary poisoning through mouse, rabbit and fox baiting presents a significant threat to 21% of the threatened fauna (30 species). Illegal trapping, nestrobbing, and hunting of animals poses a threat to a further 21 species. Collisions with vehicles, fences and windows (12 species), cave damage through mining (4 species), and predation or disturbance from aggressive pest species (typically found in habitats modified by humans; 30 species) pose threats to fewer species, but still have the potential to lead to extinctions. These threats, and in some cases suggestions for threat abatement, are discussed in detail below with respect to the threatened or regionally significant species found in the Namoi Catchment. 126 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices Table 4. Threatening processes impacting threatened Australian flora and fauna in the Namoi Catchment Number of Regionally Significant or Threatened Species Threatening Process Amphibians Birds Mammals Reptiles Fish/ Inverts Total Fauna Flora Land Clearance 9 47 34 5 0 95 29 Remove Hollow Trees 0 11 12 1 0 24 Removal of Fallen Wood 0 14 11 5 0 30 Mining/Cave Damage 0 0 4 0 0 4 Fire Regimes 0 34 15 4 0 53 18 Overgrazing/Trampling 2 38 8 3 0 51 21 Bushrock Removal 0 0 1 3 0 4 Invasive Weeds 8 16 2 3 0 29 15 Feral Goats 0 1 3 0 0 4 6 Introduced Rabbits 0 1 5 0 0 6 6 Honey Bees 0 4 5 0 0 9 Feral Pigs 0 3 2 0 0 5 Predation by Cats & Foxes 0 14 25 3 0 42 Aggressive Pest Species 0 5 0 0 0 5 Poisoning (secondary) 3 9 15 1 2 30 Alternation to Stream Flow or Quality 11 8 1 1 2 23 Chytrid Fungus 4 0 0 0 0 4 Psittacine circovial 0 2 0 0 0 2 Climate Change 2 6 1 0 0 9 Illegal Killing/Trapping 0 15 5 1 0 21 Collisions 0 5 7 0 0 12 Total Reg. Sig. Species 12 67 43 20 2 145 Clearing and fragmentation of native vegetation “Land clearance” is listed as a key threatening process of the EPBC Act 1999 [4 April 2001] and is the primary threatening process affecting flora, fauna and communities in the Namoi Catchment. Land clearance involves the “clearing of native vegetation”, which is listed as a key threatening process Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995 [21 September 2001]. This process includes the clearing and fragmentation of native vegetation for agriculture, development, mining, and roadworks. There is a high correlation between native vegetation clearance, habitat loss and fragmentation, and biodiversity decline. The impact of clearing on biodiversity is greatest in areas where ecosystems contain a relatively high diversity of habitats and high numbers of endemic species with restricted ranges, especially those that are already considered to be threatened (Biodiversity Unit 1995). The immediate effect of clearance can be signif- 6 33 icant. It is estimated that for every 100 ha of woodland cleared, 1000 to 2000 birds permanently lose their habitat (Bennett 1993). Clearing of Mallee for wheat is estimated to kill 85% of the resident reptiles, more than 200 individuals per hectare. Land clearance and the loss of or fragmentation of native vegetation is affecting 67% of the threatened fauna (95 species), 88% of threatened flora (29 species), and 93% of the EECs (16) in the Namoi (Appendices G to I). Land clearing consists of the destruction of the aboveground biomass of native vegetation and its substantial replacement by non-local species or by human developments (Threatened Species Scientific Committee 2007b). Native vegetation is defined as vegetation in which native species constitute more than 70% of the plant cover, or other vegetation containing populations of species listed under the EPBC Act (Threatened Species Scientific Committee 2007b). Substantial replacement is defined as having >70% of the vegetation replaced by non-local species or human development. 127 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Land clearing includes clearance of native vegetation for crops, improved pasture, plantations, gardens, houses, mines, buildings and roads. It also includes infilling of wetlands or dumping material on dry land native vegetation, and the drowning of vegetation through the construction of impoundments. We have also included damage to flora through logging, foot traffic (bushwalkers), and erosion. The definition of the process does not include silvicultural operations in native forests and manipulation of native vegetation composition and structure by grazing, burning or other means. These processes are discussed in detail below. Appendices improved, environmental outcomes under this legislation. Even small-scale clearing in areas with EECs or threatened species should be avoided wherever possible. Loss of Hollow-Bearing Trees Loss of hollow-bearing trees is listed as a key threatening process Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995. There are numerous impacts as a result of clearing native vegetation, including: a) destruction of habitat causing a loss of biological diversity, and may result in total extinction of species or loss of local genotypes; b) fragmentation of populations resulting in limited gene flow between small isolated populations due to the creation of barriers (Saunders 1989), reduced potential to adapt to environmental change and loss or severe modification of the interactions between species (limited gene flow and low genetic diversity due to small isolated populations effects 39% of the threatened flora species in the Namoi); c) fragmented patches are more susceptible to threatening processes such as invasion by weeds or feral animals from the surrounding cleared land (Biodiversity Unit 1995); d) fragmentation creates ‘edge’ effects leading to increased exposure to sun and wind, changes in water cycle and local air temperatures (Saunders 1989); e) ‘edge’ effects created by fragmentation may also lead to increased predation on native fauna and cause native birds to be excluded from habitats by aggressive pest species (e.g. noisy miner; Piper and Catterall 2003); f) riparian zone degradation, such as bank erosion leading to sedimentation that affects aquatic communities (this process puts 14% of threatened fauna in the Namoi at risk including nine species of amphibian, five birds, one fish, one mammal and one reptile); g) disturbed habitat which may permit the establishment and spread of exotic species which may displace native species (invasive vegetation effects 61% of the threatened flora in the Namoi, see below); and h) loss of leaf litter removes habitat for a wide variety of vertebrates and invertebrates (has the greatest impact on amphibian and reptile populations using riparian vegetation). The Native Vegetation Act 2003 (NVA) was introduced with a clear objective to prevent further broad-scale clearing. In the Namoi, broad-scale clearing will only be permitted where it can be demonstrated to maintain, or result in Hollow cavities are characteristic of older, mature to overmature trees either living or dead and may develop in the trunk and branches of trees as a result of wind breakage, lighting strikes, fire and/or following the consumption and decay of internal heartwood by fungi and invertebrates, primarily termites. Hollows occur primarily in old eucalyptus trees. The presence, abundance and size of hollows are positively correlated with tree trunk diameter, which is an index of age. Hollows with large internal dimensions are the rarest and occur predominantly in large old trees >220 years old. Larger, older trees also provide a greater density of hollows per tree. As such, large old hollow-bearing trees are more valuable to hollow-using fauna than younger hollow-bearing trees, which are important as a future resource (Department of the Environment and Climate Change 2005d). Mature and old hollow-bearing trees offer other valuable resources. Mature trees provide more flowers, nectar, fruit and seeds than younger trees, and a complex substrate that supplies diverse habitats for invertebrate populations. When hollow-bearing trees collapse or shed limbs they also provide hollow logs that serve as important foraging substrates and shelter sites. The distribution of hollow-bearing trees depends on tree species composition, site conditions, competition, tree health and past management activities. Hollows occur at varying densities; undisturbed woodlands typically contain 7–17 hollow-bearing trees ha -1 and undisturbed temperate forests 13–27 ha -1. On a landscape basis, dead trees often account for 20–50% of the total number of hollow-bearing trees. These are far more prone to collapse or incineration than live trees and are selectively harvested for firewood. Occupancy of hollow-bearing trees is also related to their position in the landscape. Some species prefer hollows near riparian habitat or foraging areas, although more mobile species may travel long distances from their roost or den. Birds that roost colonially (e.g. glossy black -cockatoo) require a local abundance of hollow-bearing trees, while strongly territorial species (e.g. Australian owlet-nightjar) may only require one or a few hollows over a large area (Doucette Submitted-a). Vertebrates are known to select hollows with specific characteristics (Doucette Submitted-b), thus a variety of hollows must be available in a given areas to support biodiversity. Preference is typically shown for entrance dimensions that approximate body size, presumably to 128 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 exclude larger competitors and predators (Gibbons and Lindenmayer 2002). Small animals that roost communally or raise large litters require hollows with small entrances but large internal dimensions. The use of hollows with suboptimal characteristics can adversely affect survival and reproductive success (Doucette Submitted-b). The density of hollow-bearing trees required to sustain viable populations of vertebrates is controlled by the diversity of competing fauna species at a site, population densities, number of hollows required by each individual over the long-term, and the number of hollows with suitable characteristics. The presence, abundance and species richness of hollow-using fauna are correlated with the density of hollow-bearing trees; suggesting that the availability of hollows is often a limiting environmental factor. In some instances, a threatened carnivore may be negatively impacted by loss of hollow-bearing trees if its primary prey species requires hollows for roosts or dens. For example, low densities of the common ringtail possum (Pseudocheirus peregrinus) due to a limitation of suitable hollows may hinder recovery efforts for the powerful owl (Ninox strenua). The distribution and abundance of hollow-bearing trees in NSW has been reduced and fragmented by extensive clearing of native vegetation during the past two centuries, primarily for agriculture. For example, it has been estimated that approximately 70% of native vegetation has been cleared from the NSW wheat-sheep belt, the tablelands of the Great Divide and the coastal plain. Clearing in NSW has continued since 1995 at an estimated rate of over 30 000 ha per annum. Clearing has occurred at a greater intensity on flatter and more fertile landscapes, which typically support the highest densities of hollow-using fauna. In agricultural landscapes, hollow-bearing trees typically persist as isolated mature individuals in cleared paddocks or in small fragmented vegetation remnants. Such trees frequently suffer from poor health (e.g. ‘dieback’) and have a shorter lifespan than in forested landscapes. Eventual loss of current hollow-bearing trees, and a lack of recruitment of younger trees to replace them, will result in a large decrease in the hollow resource over the wide geographic area covered by agricultural landscapes. Road reserves and Travelling Stock Reserves (TSRs) provide hollow-bearing trees within cleared agricultural landscapes. However, due to the fragmented nature of the habitat, competition among hollow-dependent species is high. Clearing of vegetation for urban expansion and other development, including the creation of asset protection zones against wildfire, contributes significantly to the ongoing loss of hollow-bearing trees. In forests managed Appendices for timber and firewood production, silvicultural practices have greatly reduced the density of hollow-bearing trees, especially where repeated harvesting events have occurred. In some forest types there has been a gradual shift in the relative composition of tree species toward those desired for timber. Among trees grown for silvicultural purposes, current rotation intervals between harvesting events, typically 30 to 90 years, are insufficient to allow for hollow development. Even when trees are retained during harvest they are susceptible to damage from logging operations and post-harvest burning, or can suffer poor health owing to changes in abiotic conditions. Consequently, retained trees are prone to early mortality, especially with repeated exposure to harvesting events over their lifespan. In addition, the average age of hollow-bearing trees in harvested areas will continue to decrease as the few remaining very old trees die. The density of hollow-bearing trees in conservation reserves that have previously been logged should gradually increase until reaching equilibrium of recruitment and loss, albeit with a long time lag in some areas. Wildfire may temporarily disrupt the age structure of these forests but in the long term can also promote hollow formation in standing trees. Wildfire is a particular threat at sites where the hollow resource is restricted to large, senescent hollow-bearing trees that are susceptible to incineration. A focus must be placed on the use of appropriate fire regimes with particular regard to hollowbearing trees. Where feral species and unusually abundant native species (e.g. Galah) occur, competition for hollows limits their availability to other species. This is more common in smaller reserves. One widespread competitor is the introduced honeybee Apis mellifera, which typically builds hives in large cavities with small entrances (see below). In the Namoi, 11 species of birds, 12 species of mammals, and one reptile are directly threatened through the loss of hollow-bearing trees (Appendix H). As discussed above, predators of these species could also become threatened should populations of their hollow-reliant prey become extinct. To maintain an ongoing supply of large hollow-bearing trees old growth forests should be left intact and dead trees, stags and stumps should be left standing whenever possible. High intensity fire should be avoided in vegetation communities where hollow-bearing trees are essential to threatened wildlife. Landowners should be educated on the importance of large hollowbearing trees and encouraged to maintain them on their properties where feasible. Control of feral species that utilise hollows, particularly the introduced honeybee is necessary, particularly near reserves and National Parks. 129 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices Removal of Dead Wood and Dead Trees Inappropriate fire regimes Removal of dead wood and dead trees is listed as a key threatening process Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995 [12 December 2003]. This threatening process includes the removal of forest and woodland waste left after timber harvesting, collecting fallen timber for firewood, burning on site, mulching on site, the removal of fallen branches and litter as general tidying up, and the removal of standing dead trees. High-frequency fire resulting in the disruption of life cycle processes in plants and animals and loss of vegetation structure and composition is listed as a Key Threatening Process on Schedule 3 of the Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995 [24 March 2000]. Fire management potentially affects more flora and fauna than any other management practice (Biodiversity Unit 1994). Implementation of a best practice fire regime is desirable to ensure the maintenance of biodiversity, age structure, productivity and fauna habitat (Attiwill and Wilson 2006). A conference organised by the Biodiversity Unit, Victorian Department of Conservation and Natural Resources (DCNR) in 1996 on the topic of “Fire and Biodiversity” concluded that with the lack of knowledge of the response of many flora and fauna groups, variation in fire frequency, intensity, patch size and burn season within the known tolerances of particular habitats will help to maximise biodiversity retention. Yet a decade later, little is known about optimum fire regimes for protection of flora and fauna. The recommendations emphasised the need for flexibility so that burning plans can vary in accordance with changing circumstances or climatic variations, rather than conducted according to rigid schedules for season and frequency. Rigid prescriptions for fires will lead to the development of vegetation communities adapted to an inflexible fire regime with the consequent loss of many plant species, and subsequently dependent fauna (Biodiversity Unit 1994). Dead wood and dead trees provide essential habitat for a wide variety of native animals and are important to the functioning of many ecosystems. The removal of dead wood (either as standing trees or on the ground) can have a range of environmental consequences, such as habitat loss for species reliant on hollows and decaying wood (Gibbons and Lindenmayer 2002), and disruption of ecosystem process and soil erosion. The forests and woodlands of the Western Slopes and Tablelands found within the Namoi are the ecological communities most threatened by dead wood removal because they contain popular firewood species. This region of NSW has been extensively cleared for agriculture and remnant patches of woodland are severely impacted by dead wood removal (Wall and Reid 1993). Removal of dead wood may also affect other forest communities, including wet sclerophyll forests and rainforests, particularly in small and easily accessible areas. The removal of dead wood and dead trees is listed as a threatening process for 14 species of threatened birds (10% of threatened birds), 11 species of threatened mammals (8%) and five species of threatened reptiles in the Namoi (4%) (Appendix H). Proposed threat abatement measures focus on prevention and reduction of the removal of dead wood and dead trees for firewood (Department of the Environment and Climate Change 2005e). The Department of Environment and Climate Change (DECC) has highlighted the need to develop community education and awareness material on impacts of removal of dead wood and dead trees focused on the need for sustainable firewood collection. Improving the efficiency of firewood use in wood heaters may also lead to a decreased demand for firewood. Other priorities to decrease firewood collection are: 1) to promote and support an industry-based scheme certifying compliance by firewood suppliers to the Voluntary Code of Practice; 2) to finalise the policy on firewood collection on land reserved under the National Parks and Wildlife Act 1974; and 3) to investigate the practicality of promoting commercial firewood collection from post-harvest woody debris in State Forest and private plantations. Many species of flora and fauna are intertwined in their dependence on fire regimes. Thus, if an animal is dependent on a vegetation community that is sensitive to fire, then that species of animal may be considered fire sensitive (Gill and Bradstock 1995). However, a species of animal whose range encompasses a variety of ecological communities may show variation in fire sensitivity amongst populations, depending upon the vegetation type it inhabits. For example, the survival of ground parrots (Pezoporus wallicus) in the Victorian heathlands required fire intervals less than 20 years, but greater than six years (Meredith et al. 1984). However, in the Victorian sedgelands, where fires are described as uncommon, habitats remained suitable for ground parrots irrespective of time since fire (Meredith et al. 1984). The explanation for the differences in the fire intervals for the success of the ground parrots seems to lie with the behaviour of shrubs in relation to that of the graminoid sedges. In the sedgelands, fires are not necessary to enhance the ground parrot habitat (Gill 1994). 130 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Threatened Fauna Fire frequencies of at least 10 years are recommended to maintain heathland bird populations (Wilson 1996). In Mallee woodland communities there is a rapid increase in both bird numbers and species numbers between 0 and 15 years post-fire, after which density decreases but species richness continues to increase (Meredith 1984). The peak in density (15 years) corresponds to a high level of productivity. Management should focus on fire regimes to maintain appropriate vegetation communities and enhanced productivity and food resources for the respective bird populations. The effects of fire on fauna vary depending on the fire regime, including the intensity and frequency of fire and the season of occurrence (Wilson 1996). High intensity wildfire may result in the incineration of many animals and decimation of fauna populations, with only small pockets of unburnt vegetation acting as refuges for fauna. Low-intensity fires may leave to 40% of an area unburnt resulting in the survival of many animals that are able to move into unburnt refuges or shelter in burrows, under rocks, or in tree hollows (Wilson 1996). Fire itself is unlikely to be a major mortality factor for small mammals when at low intensities, yet low-intensity fires may not result in the required regeneration of biodiversity of vegetative communities (Carling et al. 1982). Many mammals and birds that escape fires may not be able to persist in the long term if habitat resources are reduced (Attiwill and Wilson 2006). The frequency of fire will affect the re-establishment of populations and several short inter-fire periods may substantially reduce population numbers. The season in which a fire occurs affects the intensity of the fire and has variable effects on populations, potentially interrupting breeding or nesting activities of some species. Fire will also affect the food resources of many fauna, potentially leading to prolonged periods of starvation and eventually death if alternative food sources/locations are not available. Mammals Inappropriate fire regimes in the form of too low- or highfrequency fires is listed as a threatening process for 53 of the 145 species (37%) of fauna listed as threatened or regionally significant in the Namoi catchment. This includes detrimental effects to 34 species of birds, 15 species of mammals, and four species of reptiles (Appendix H). Few data exist for species-specific responses of fauna to fire regimes. Table 5 lists recommended fire regimes for threatened fauna in the Namoi for which data was available. Birds Low-intensity fires generally result in low bird mortality rates, especially when structural changes to vegetation are minimal (Cowley 1974). Birds most affected are those occupying the habitat levels affected by the fire (i.e. understorey birds, Christensen and Kimber 1975). After a low-intensity fire where vegetation structure re-establishes rapidly, there is an initial decrease in both number and species of birds followed by a substantial increase within one to two years (Wilson 1996). High intensity fires can cause substantial bird mortality and have major affects on structural attributes of vegetation and consequently bird numbers as cover and food resources are reduced (Recher et al. 1985). Frequent fires which inhibit vegetation attaining mature structural features would result in loss of species dependent on large hollowbearing trees (Meredith 1984). Appendices Small mammal species exhibit varied responses to wildfire and thus, few data exist for species-specific fire regimes (Table 5). After low-intensity burns responses of mammalian species are usually closely related to their shelter, food and breeding requirements (Friend 1993). The different recolonisation responses of species to fire are closely related to the post-fire successional changes of the vegetation (Wilson 1996). For example, species such as the New Holland mouse (Pseudomys novaehollandiae) that prefers open, floristically-rich vegetation recolonises early in the post-fire recovery period (5–7 years, Cockburn 1978), while the dusky antechinus (Antechinus swainsonii), a species that requires dense groundcover, exhibits low population numbers up to six years after fire (Newsome et al. 1975). For grounddwelling mammals, fire management should be directed towards preservation of appropriate vegetative communities and habitats (Cockburn 1978; Wilson 1996). Information on the effects of fire on arboreal mammals and bats is lacking, although too frequent or intense fires may detrimentally affect the number of suitable large hollow-bearing den trees (Gibbons and Lindenmayer 2002; Wilson 1996). High intensity fires are known to kill common ringtail possums (Pseudocheirus peregrinus) (Newsome et al. 1975), with survivors of this and other species (such as the greater glider, (Petauroides volans) and the yellow-bellied glider (P. australis) seeking refuge in unburnt creeks and wet gullies (Wilson 1996). In this respect, seasonality of burns is very important for fauna survival. If low open forest is burnt in autumn (the usual prescription) when it is drier, the moist gully vegetation may be burnt (Attiwill and Wilson 2006). If the forest is burnt is spring the mesic vegetation will typically only burn every third fire rotation. The feathertail glider (Acrobates pygmaeus) may benefit from frequent fires as they appear to favour early successional stages following fire (Braithwaite 1983). Reptiles Most data on reptiles and fire has been from studies in Mallee woodlands, heathlands, and northern Australian savannah forests where reptilian diversity is high (Wilson 1996 and references therein). Few studies have been 131 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 undertaken in southern temperate areas. Detrimental effects of fire are primarily related to the intensity of heat from the fire, especially for species that may burrow or find shelter under rocks, and the effect of fire on fallen logs and branches (Humphries 1992). Appendices foraging requirements of species and their abundance in successional ages (Friend 1993), fire is acknowledged as a major threat to endangered reptiles that inhabit predominantly grassland communities (Coulson 1990). While some individuals may survive by burrowing, the loss of vegetative cover may threaten any survivors due to heat stress or vulnerability to predators. It appears that reptiles recover quickly in arid to semiarid communities. Cooger (1964) found that the Mallee dragon (Ctenophorus fordi) was at a higher density in 10 year post-fire regrowth than in unburnt areas. Caughley (1985) found similar reptile species numbers at Mallee sites aged 4, 7, 25 and 60 years since a burn, although population densities differed. After finding no relationship amongst total reptile species, number of captures and time after fire in heathland and woodland habitats in Western Australia, Bamford (1986) concluded that the effect of fire on reptiles overall was negligible. However, as there is a strong relationship between shelter and Three of the reptile species listed as threatened by inappropriate fire regimes in the Namoi (border thick-tailed gecko Underwoodisaurus sphyrurus; pink-tailed worm lizard Aprasia parapulchella; little whip snake Suta flagellum) favour rocky outcrops in eucalypt woodlands where they would be able to seek protection under boulders or rock slabs during fire (Appendix H). The third species (paleheaded snake Hoplocephalus bitorquatus) shelters during the day under loose bark or in hollows which may provide adequate protection from low-intensity fires. Table 5. Recommendations of fire frequency for threatened species of fauna in the Namoi Class Species NSW Status EPBC Act Amphibian Booroolong Frog Litoria booroolongensis E E Bird Australasian Bittern Botaurua poiciloptilus V No fire. Bird Barking Owl Ninox connivens V No burning around known nesting sites at anytime. Bird Bush Stone-curlew Burhinus grallarius E No burning from 1 August to 31 Mar, and no more than once every 2 years. Retain logs on ground. Bird Crested Shrike-tit Falcunculus frontatus Bird Glossy Black Cockatoo Calyptorhynchus lathami V Bird Hooded Robin Melanodryas cucullata cucullata V Bird Malleefowl Leipoa ocellata E Bird Masked Owl Tyto novaehollandiae V Bird Red-tailed Black Cockatoo Calyptorhynchus banksii V Bird Sooty Owl Tyto tenebricosa V No burning around known nesting sites at any time. Bird Superb Parrot Polytelis swainsonii V Only use low-intensity fire between May and end of July. Avoid burning River Red Gum and Callitris, and protect hollow-bearing trees. Mammal Black-striped Wallaby Macropus dorsalis E No fire more than once every 10 years. Mammal Eastern False Pipistrelle Falsistrellus tasmaniensis V Protect hollows. Mammal Grey-headed Flying-fox Pteropus poliocephalus V NS Species-Specific Conditions Relating to the Use of Fire No burning within 100 m of streams. Fine-scale mosaic of fire-ages across the landscape, with 10– 30% of landscape burnt each year1. Occasional hot burns1. E No burning of allocasuarina thickets. Mosaic of fire-ages across the landscape with a bias towards retention of older fire ages1. Fine-scale mosaic of fire-ages across the landscape, with 10– 30% of landscape burnt each year1. Occasional hot burns1. V No fire or a mosaic of areas of different fire-ages with a bias towards retention of older fire-ages. Fire frequency at most every 40 years in any particular area1. No burning around known nesting sites at anytime. Throughout the range a mosaic of fire-ages across the landscape with a bias towards retention of older fire-ages should be used1. E V Data Source: NSW Rural Fire Service (2006) unless otherwise stated. 1 Data from Olsen and Weston (2005), Birds Australia 132 Mosaic of fire-ages across the landscape with a bias towards retention of older fire ages1. Avoid known roost sites. NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Threatened Flora The NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service (2002) have defined a list of “acceptable” fire intervals consistent with the maintenance of existing plant species for broad vegetation types (Table 6). As vegetation communities generally have a different flammability and different fire regime requirements to maintain biodiversity (Williams et al. 1994), a strategic mosaic based upon vegetation communities is feasible and desirable. At the landscape level there will be a variety of fire interval combinations and it is the proportion of the landscape that is within the acceptable fire domain that is the main concern for biodiversity conservation. If the fire history of a reserve is such that over 50% of any one vegetation community falls outside of the appropriate guideline parameters serious conservation consequences are predicted (NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service 2002) (NPWS 2000). At a landscape level the majority of the community should fall somewhere between the minimum and maximum intervals. Appendices The maximum interval indicates the time since fire at which it may be expected that species may be lost from the community due to senescence (NSW NPWS 2000). Any areas that exceed this maximum interval should be thoroughly examined for species diversity, abundance and health before assuming that any ecological burning procedures be instigated. In some communities long-unburnt areas are very rare and afford excellent opportunities for research into the processes of senescence, recruitment and habitat utilisation. Such opportunities for research would greatly improve scientists’ ability to predict appropriate figures for maximum fire intervals. Fire intensity is an important consideration for species that require a heat-cue for germination and show minimal recruitment after low-intensity fires (Lord 1996). Repetition of low-intensity fires leaves these species at risk of decline and local extinction (Auld and O’Connell 1991). As with fire frequency, it is important that variation exits in the intensity and seasonal occurrence of fires. Inappropriate fire regimes are listed as a threatening process for 18 of the 33 species (50%) of flora listed as threatened in the Namoi Catchment (Appendix G). A list of recommendations for the frequency of fire regimes for threatened species of flora in NSW is provided in Table 7. The minimal interval defined in Table 7 is based on the minimum maturity requirements of species sensitive to extinction under frequent fire regimes and is the length of inter-fire interval that should avoid any local species extinction (NSW NPWS 2000). This is an extreme minimum value, as it is based on primary juvenile periods, and does not include time to replenish seedbank reserves. Fires at shorter intervals than the minimum interval (especially if the short fire intervals are repeated) may result in a significant reduction of biodiversity and possibly local extinctions. Endangered Ecological Communities A community should not be burnt repeatedly at this minimum interval. To allow for seed production and the building of seedbank reserves a period of three reproductive years (Keith et al. 2002) should be added to the minimum fire interval for all communities. The NSW NPWS (2000) strongly recommends that short inter-fire intervals be followed by a longer interval with at least this additional period. Inter-fire intervals experienced at a site should be variable to maintain greatest species diversity (Morrison et al. 1995). Successive short intervals will lead to critical decline in the species sensitive to frequent disturbance and repeated long intervals will do likewise for species sensitive to infrequent fire (Lord 1996). Inappropriate fire regimes are listed as a threatening process for seven of the 16 (44%) EECs in the Namoi Catchment (Appendix I). Specific recommendations for fire frequency in 14 of the EECs are provided in Table 9. Recommended management guidelines for fire regimes in the Namoi are: Another reason to avoid too frequent burning is that it may lead to the introduction of exotic grasses and weeds into areas where native species are temporarily absent post-fire (Fisher 1996). Weeds may choke out the seedlings of other plants and eventually form monocultures. The weeds may dominate to such an extent that there is little or no diversity in terms of types of plants and the structure of the vegetation. Minimising biodiversity of vegetation will affect fauna food resources and consequentially animal diversity. 133 a) The effects of fuel reduction burning regime should be monitored so detrimental changes to flora and fauna populations can be identified (Wilson 1996); b) Long-term monitoring of sites is essential to allow examination of the impact of different fire regimes (Wilson 1996); c) Collate fire records, verbal reports, and evidence from aerial photographs; d) Accurate boundary maps of the extent of fires should be made when they occur including accurate groundtruthing; e) Fire regimes must be implemented at the local level and be specific to the different landscapes (Biodiversity Unit 1994). NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices Table 6. Fire interval guidelines for broad vegetation type (BVT) Broad Vegetation Type Minimum Interval Maximum Interval NA NA Fire should be avoided. Freshwater wetland 6 NA No maximum interval. Fire unnecessary. Forested wetland 7 35 Fire should be avoided in River Red Gum woodlands. Rainforest NA NA Fire should be avoided. Alpine complex NA NA Fire should be avoided. Heathland 7 30 Rocky outcrops 15 NA No maximum interval. Fire unnecessary. Grasslands 2 10 Insufficient data to give a definite maximum interval; available evidence indicates maximum intervals should be approximately 10 years. Some intervals greater than 7 years should be included in Coastal areas. Grassy woodlands 5 40 Minimum interval of 10 years should woodland apply in the Southern Tablelands Region. Arid shrubland (Acacia subformation) 6 40 A minimum of 10–15 years should apply to communities containing Callitris. Fire should be avoided in Chenopod shrublands. Semi-arid woodland (shrubby subformation) 6* 40* *Insufficient data to give definite intervals. Available data indicates minimum intervals should be at least 5–10 years, and maximum intervals approximately 40 years. No fire necessary for communities of subtropical and tropical origin (e.g. rosewoods, wilga). Semi-arid woodland (grassy subformation) 6* 40* *Insufficient data to give definite intervals. Available data indicates minimum intervals should be at least 5–10 years, and maximum intervals approximately 40 years. Dry sclerophyll forest (shrub/grass subformation) 5 50 Wet sclerophyll forest (shrubby formation) 25 NA No maximum interval. Fire unnecessary. Crown fires should be avoided in the lower end of the internal range. Wet sclerophyll forest (grassy formation) 10 NA No maximum interval. Fire unnecessary. Crown fires should be avoided in the lower end of the internal range. Saline wetland Notes 134 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices Table 7. Recommendations for the frequency of fire regimes for threatened species of flora in the Namoi (data from the Rural Fire Service, 2006) Species Acacia flocktoniae Flockton Wattle Acacia pubifolia Velvet Wattle Asterolasia sp. Dungowan Starbush Bertya sp. Coolibah Bertya Boronia ruppii Rupp’s Boronia Cadellia pentastylis Ooline Chiloglottis platyptera Barrington Tops Ant Orchid Cyperus conicus Dichanthium setosum Bluegrass Digitaria porrecta Finger Panic Grass Diuris pedunculata Small Snake Orchid Diuris tricolor Pine Donkey Orchid Eucalyptus mckieana McKie’s Stringybark Eucalyptus nicholii Narrow-leaved Black Peppermint Eucalyptus oresbia Small fruited Mountain Gum Hakea pulvinifera Lake Keepit Hakea Haloragis Exalatal subsp. veluntina Tall Velvet Sea Berry Homoranthus bornhardtiensis Barraba Homoranthus Homoranthus prolixus Granite Homoranthus Lepidium aschersonii Spiny Peppercress Lysimackia vulgaris va. davurica Monotaxis macophylla Large-leafed Monotaxis Philotheca ericifolia Polygala linariifolia Native Milkwort Pomaderris queenslandica Scant Pomaderris Pterostylis cobarensis Greenhood Orchid Rulingia procumbens Sida rohlenae Swainsona murrayana Slender Darling Pea Tasmannia glaucifolia Fragment Pepperbush Tasmannia purpurascens Broad-leaved Pepperbush Thesium australe Austral Toadflax Tylophora linearis TSC Act V EPBC Act V E V E Recommendation of Species-Specific Fire Frequency No fire more than once every 7 years No fire more than once every 5 years No fire or no fire more than once every 7 years V V No fire more than once every 5 years E E No fire V V No fire V No fire E V V No fire more than once every 10 years No fire more than once every 5 years E E No fire more than once every 2 years E E No fire more than once every 10 years and no fire in Spring or Autumn V V No fire V V No fire more than once every 7 years V V No fire more than once every 10 years V No fire more than once every 7 years E E V 3V E No fire No fire more than once every 7 years No fire more than once every 10 years V V No fire more than once every 10 years V V No fire V E V No fire No fire more than once every 25 years V E V No fire more than once every 7 years No fire more than once every 7 years E No fire more than once every 25 years V V No fire V E V V V No fire more than once every 7 years No fire more than once every 7 years No fire more than once every 10 years V V No fire V V No fire. V V No fire more than once every 5 years E E No fire more than once every 10 years 135 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices Table 8. Recommendations for the use of fire in 15 EECs in the Namoi Endangered Ecological Community (EEC) Minimum Maximum Notes Interval interval Brigalow Community within the Brigalow Belt South, Nandewar and Darling Riverine Plains bioregions NA NA Fire should be avoided. Cadellia pentastylis (Ooline) community in the Nandewar and Brigalow Belt South bioregions NA NA Fire should be avoided. Carbeen Open Forest community in the Darling Riverine Plains and Brigalow Belt South Bioregions 5 50 Coolibah-Black Box woodland of the northern riverine plains in the Darling Riverine Plains and Brigalow Belt South bioregions 5 50 fires are not required for floodplain communities, which are replenished by flooding not fire. Fuzzy Box on alluvials of South West Slopes, Darling Riverine Plains & the Brigalow Belt South 6 NA fires are not required for floodplain communities, which are replenished by flooding not fire. Howell Shrublands in the Northern Tablelands and Nandewar Bioregions 15 NA No maximum interval. Fire unnecessary Inland Grey Box Woodland in the Riverina, NSW SouthWestern Slopes, Cobar Peneplain, Nandewar and Brigalow Belt South Bioregions 5 50 Montane Peatlands and Swamps of the New England Tableland, NSW North Coast, Sydney Basin, South East Corner, South-Eastern Highlands and Australian Alps NA NA No fires – Fires are detrimental to the hydrosphere that maintains the integrity of the wetland system. Repeated fires will destroy the community. Myall Woodland in the Darling Riverine Plains, Brigalow Belt South, Cobar Peneplain, Murray-Darling Depression, Riverina and NSW South western Slopes bioregions 6 NA No maximum interval. Fire unnecessary and likely detrimental. Native Vegetation on Cracking Clay Soils of the Liverpool Plains 5 40 Too frequent fires will cause Popular Box to overtake Belah. New England Peppermint (Eucalyptus nova-anglica) Woodland on Basalts and Sediments in the New England Tableland Bioregion 15 50+ Most of the reserves containing this community have been unburnt for 70+ years with no loss of integrity Ribbon Gum, Mountain Gum, Snow Gum Grassy Forest/ Woodland of the New England Tableland Bioregion 7 60 Semi-evergreen Vine Thicket in the Brigalow Belt South and Nandewar Bioregions NA NA Fire should be avoided 5 40 Fire interval 5–40 years. No fire more than once every 5 years. Slashing but no trittering or tree removal. White Box Yellow Box Blakely’s Red Gum Woodland 136 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Overgrazing Appendices once the herbage layer is gone and are replaced by shorter-lived species, often other chenopods or grasses. These species offer less soil protection in poor seasons (Graetz and Wilson 1984). In some woodlands, particularly Rosewoood/Belah and Mallee, consumption of seedling trees and shrubs by livestock may suppress recruitment and lead to a longer term loss of dominant woody species (Chesterfield and Parsons 1985). Patches of bare ground created by overgrazed grasslands may also leave opportunities for weeds to temporarily or permanently invade (Renne and Tracey 2007). Although not listed as a key threatening process under the EPBC Act or 1999 or TSC Act 1995, overgrazing or poor management of grazing property is one of the main threats to native biodiversity. Improper management of grazing lands can result in the modification of habitat and loss of food resources (and food resources of prey species of carnivores) from trampling (and resulting soil compaction) and overgrazing by domestic stock. This includes loss of grasslands and leaf litter in forests and woodland as a result of trampling leading to significant habitat degradation. Overgrazing may have severe impacts on the ecology of an area in poor years. During drought, livestock will consume all edible vegetation before they perish. This may lead to almost complete removal of vegetation from heavily grazed areas. Ultimately, over-grazing may lead to desertification of the landscape as site degradation removes the soil’s capacity to capture and store water and the loss or organic matter in the soil (Pando-Moreno et al. 2004). In the Namoi, 51 species of fauna, including two species of amphibians, 38 bird species, eight mammal species, three species of reptile, and 21 species of plants are threatened through overgrazing or trampling (Appendix G, Appendix H). Some species (e.g. the population of Lysimackia vulgaris va. davurica near Aberbaldie) have been completed eradicated due to overgrazing. Sheep and cattle have a direct impact on native vegetation through herbivory and trampling which causes soil compaction, alteration of the soil structure and disruption of the soil crust (Hobbs and Hopkins 1990). Grazing can affect biota directly or indirectly through reducing the productive potential of the soil (Friedel and James 1995). Heavy grazing will remove vegetation and trampling will create stock paths that channel water into drainage lines and increase erosion (Friedel and James 1995). Once vegetation becomes starved of resources, regeneration will fail and the vegetation will gradually die out. Once the vegetation has disappeared, the fauna will follow. Grazing intensity tends to be greatest around watering points, diminishing with distance. Landsberg et al. (1997) measured vegetation in several Australian rangelands along 10 km gradients between water points and areas remote from water. Grazing intensity increased as distance from water decreased. In semiarid country sheep graze intensively within 1.5 km of water but will graze up to 5 km away when conditions are dry (Wilson and Harrington 1984). Cattle will stay within 3 km of water when forage supply is good, and move to 6 km water vegetation is reduced (Wilson and Harrington 1984). The greater the number of watering points the greater the impact on native fauna as intensive grazing can occur over large areas. Twenty percent of the native species of plants in the rangelands are only found near water (Landsberg et al. 1997). Thus, these species are the most likely to be heavily impacted by overgrazing. In areas where water points are in close proximity, overgrazing is likely to completely exclude sensitive species from large areas of land. Leigh and Briggs (1992) estimated that of the 83 extinct species of plants in Australia, 33 were caused by grazing and 44 by other agricultural activities. As fauna also requires a reliable supply of water, these species will be forced out of large areas as remnants of native vegetation become scarce. Where grazing has caused extensive changes in soils and hydrological processes it may be impossible for the land to recover. Nutrients are concentrated in the top layers of soils, so the loss of a few centimetres would seriously deplete the nutrient capital (Tongway and Ludwig 1990). Restoration depends on entrapment or mechanical treatment of soil to replace organic matter, water and seeds (Cunningham 1987). Once soil condition is improved and vegetation is restored, faunal species could reappear unaided if the habitat is not too fragmented. However, it is more likely that the loss of shelters and breeding sites, and the increased presence of predators and competitors, may prevent the reintroduction of native fauna. Grazing by livestock may also cause a change in the vegetation communities present in a variety of habitats. Grazing in semi-arid areas leads to a shift from an open grassy state to one dominated by unpalatable shrubs (Friedel and James 1995). The reduced cover and competition of perennial grasses allows seedlings of woody species to readily establish. Without the protective mantle of grass the soil is easily damaged by trampling and is increasingly susceptible to erosion (Friedel and James 1995). In chenopod shrublands, saltbush (Atriplex spp.) and bluebush (Maireanan spp.) are eaten by livestock Riparian zones within rangelands are important ecologically as they: 137 1) create well-defined habitat zones within the much drier surrounding areas; 2) make up a minor proportion of the overall area; 3) are generally more productive in terms of biomass (plant and animal) than the remainder of the area; and 4) are a critical source of diversity within rangelands (Thomas et al. 1979). NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Both density and diversity of species tend to be higher at land/water ecotones than in adjacent areas, especially where regional climates are characterised by dry periods (Odum 1978). Cattle are attracted to riparian areas due to the availability of water, shade, thermal cover, and the quality and variety of forage (Ames 1977). Livestock grazing can change, reduce or eliminate vegetation bordering a stream, change channel morphology, increase water temperatures, nutrients, suspended sediments, and bacterial counts, and degrade spawning areas in-stream (Ames 1977). These factors lead to a decrease of in-stream and terrestrial wildlife and vegetation richness and numbers (Ames 1977), and have deleterious effects on the quality of water available to downstream users (Jansen et al. 2007). Grazing pressure on riparian vegetation can also lead to invasion by exotic weeds (Jansen et al. 2007). Excluding stock from riparian land may lead to regeneration of native vegetation; however, in some cases fencing has resulted in riparian areas becoming overrun with woody weeds or a complete lack of vegetation recovery (Jansen et al. 2007). Past land-use history, present practice, availability of propagules, regeneration characteristics of the vegetation, and the composition of the vegetation (introduced versus native) will all influence the process of regeneration (Jansen et al. 2007). Lower stocking rates have also been shown to result in more native vegetation in riparian areas (Jansen et al. 2007). Appendices Bushrock removal and ploughing “Bushrock Removal” is listed as a key threatening process on Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995 [5 November 1999]. Bushrock removal constitutes the removal of natural surface deposits of rock from rock outcrops or from areas of native vegetation. Bushrock provides habitat for many plants and animals. Many animals use rocks and rock environments for shelter, to hide from predators, find food, avoid extreme weather conditions and escape bushfires. Bushrock is also known to provide egg-laying sites for reptiles. The Hastings River mouse (Pseudomys oralis), pink-tailed worm lizard (Aprasia parapulchella), border thick-tailed gecko (Underwoodisaurus sphyrurus) and little whip snake (Suta flagellum) depend on bushrocks for survival. Threat abatement measures for bushrock removal in NSW include plans to deliver a targeted education campaign explaining the biodiversity impacts of bushrock removal in an effort to encourage the development of alternatives to the use of bushrock in landscaping. Invasion by Exotic Vegetation Invasion of native plant communities by exotic perennial grasses [12 September 2003] and Invasion and establishment of exotic vines and scramblers are both listed as a key threatening process on Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995. The NSW Wildlife Atlas lists 575 species of exotic flora in the Namoi Catchment. Fifteen species of flora (42% of the threatened species) in the Namoi Catchment are potentially affected by invasive exotic vegetation (Appendix G). Twenty-nine species of fauna (20% of threatened species) list invasive weeds as a threatening process, including eight species of frogs, 16 species of birds, two mammals and three reptiles (Appendix H). Eight EECs in the Namoi (50%) are threatened by weed invasion (Appendix I). Integrating conservation with sustainable grazing of native pastures is essential for the protection of biodiversity. Conservation of biodiversity cannot be achieved by reserves alone. Managing grazing lands for conservation means that basic ecological processes are maintained so that soils remain in good health and seed-bearing plants within dispersal range are available to restore the complement of flora species (Friedel and James 1995). This could be achieved with low stocking rates that allow perennial foliage to regenerate and persist. The goal should be to maintain grazing areas in a condition that the ecosystem could return to normal if grazing is removed (Enyedi et al. 2008). Exotic Perennial Grasses Although land management practices have improved substantially over recent years, much still needs to be done to decrease the impact of overgrazing and trampling on native flora and fauna. A few people operating in an irresponsible fashion can do substantial damage to very large areas. Serious, long-term environmental impacts will persist in agricultural landscapes as long as economic factors play a major role in environmental management (Burgmann and Lindenmayer 1998). Certainly, it is economic considerations with respect to agriculture that has led to the absence of the listing of overgrazing and trampling as a key threatening process in NSW and Australia. Exotic perennial grasses are those that are not native to NSW and have a life-span of more than one growing season. More than a hundred species of exotic perennial grasses occur in New South Wales. A relatively small number of these perennial grasses threaten native plant communities, and it is these species which are of concern. Exotic perennial grasses of special concern in the Namoi include Coolatai grass (Hyparrhenia hirta), Espartillo (Acnantherum caudate), Chilean needlegrass (Nassella neesiana), and serrated tussock (Nassella trichotoma) (Mawhinney 2004). The listing of Invasion of native plant communities by exotic perennial grasses as a key threatening process has been made in recognition of the increasing evidence that some perennial grass species have significant adverse 138 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 impacts on biodiversity. A few examples of impacts caused by invasive plant species (Department of the Environment and Climate Change 2005c) are: now widespread, and locally abundant, especially in the eastern part of the state. The majority of these vines and scramblers were originally introduced for horticultural purposes and have now escaped. f) Coolatai grass tolerates drought, heavy grazing and many herbicides and has invaded large areas of grassy woodlands and native pastures in north-west NSW and is spreading rapidly in other regions. The White Box Yellow Box Blakely’s Red Gum woodland EEC is currently threatened by Coolatai grass. Coolatai grass grows vigorously forming an almost complete monoculture replacing native grass and wildflower species. It has dominated large areas of pasture, roadsides, TSRs and areas of remnant vegetation in the North Western Slopes, especially in the Manilla area north of Tamworth, and its range is rapidly expanding. g) Chilean needlegrass has several features which give it a competitive advantage over many native species, such as its ability to produce a large, longliving seed bank, high survival of seedlings, tolerance to drought and effective animal-borne and waterborne dispersal mechanisms for seeds. This allows it to take over large areas of land and it can be very difficult to exterminate. h) Serrated tussock infests more than a million hectares in southern Australia, but has the potential to spread over a much larger area. It invades native grasslands, grassy woodlands, dry forests and rocky shrublands. Serrated tussock forms large tussocks with individual plants capable of producing more than 10,000 seeds annually. Some seeds remain viable in the soil for more than 10 years. Mature plants droop across the ground smothering other species. i) Perennial grasses, such as Coolatai grass and buffel grass, produce large amounts of plant matter which dries quickly and causes fuel loads to increase. This fuel results in fire regimes that favour the spread of these perennial grasses. Hotter and more frequent fires may lead to changes in the structure of the vegetation and in some cases to local extinctions of some plant and animal species. j) Threat abatement measures for control of exotic perennial grasses in NSW include plans to: a. undertake a community education and awareness program to increase understanding of the environmental impacts of perennial grasses and the need for their control; b. to undertake research on ecology and control of Coolatai grass specifically; and c. to map distribution and abundance of priority exotic perennial grasses. Exotic Vines and Scramblers A large number of exotic vines and scramblers have become established in New South Wales. Many are Appendices Vines and scramblers (climbers/creepers) of special concern in the Namoi include Madeira Vine (Anredera cordifolia), Bridal Veil Creeper (Asparagus asparadoides), Balloon Vine (Cardiospermem grandiflorum), Cat’s Claw Creeper (Macfadyena unguis-cati), and Blue Periwinkle (Vinca major) (Mawhinney 2004). Exotic vines and scramblers have significant adverse effects on biodiversity. They typically smother native vegetation and seedlings as well as prevent recruitment, especially in riparian areas (Department of the Environment and Climate Change 2005b). In addition, some vine species are capable of killing mature trees (e.g. Cat’s Claw Creeper). Many of these vines and scramblers co-occur in the same locations and thus compound their impact to biodiversity. The speed at which many of these species have spread in NSWs has contributed to their potential impact to biodiversity (Department of the Environment and Climate Change 2005b). Threat abatement measures for control of exotic vines and scramblers in NSW include plans to raise awareness of vine impacts on biodiversity with the general public and the nursery industry. Relatively little is known of the actual distribution of vines is NSW making it difficult to determine priority sites for control. Once these sites are determined there is a plan to investigate effective control methods and develop and implement vine monitoring programs at priority sites. Competition and Land Degradation by Feral Goats “Competition and land degradation by feral goats Capra hircus Linnaeus 1758” is listed as a key threatening process of the EPBC Act 1999 [16 July 2000] and the under Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995 [12 November 2004]. A detailed Threat Abatement Plan for this process has been developed by the (Biodiversity Group Environment Australia 1999a) and excerpts from it are provided below. The feral goat in Australia has been derived from a variety of domestic goat breeds that were introduced to provide meat, milk and fibre. Feral goats are defined as those animals which have escaped the ownership, management and control of people and are living and reproducing in the wild (Parks et al. 1996). Feral populations were established when domestic herds were deliberately released or animals escaped (McKnight 1976). These populations survived and proliferated in many environments for reasons such as high levels of fecundity, lack of predators, freedom from disease, high mobility, and diverse diet (Henzell 1992). 139 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Some of the highest densities of feral goats (Capra hircus) in Australia are in the arid and semi-arid pastoral regions of New South Wales (Parks et al. 1996). Southwell et. al. (1993) estimated that nearly one million feral goats exist in eastern Australia. Feral goat populations are capable of increasing by up to 50% each year under favourable environmental conditions (Mahood 1985; Parks et al. 1996). Predation from dingoes and feral dogs are believed to limit their populations in areas where these predators occur (Parks et al. 1996). At least 20 goat-sized herbivores per km2 can be supported in rangelands with annual rainfall of 240 mm. Estimates of goat densities range from 2 to 5 per km2. At these densities feral goats would be contributing 10 to 25% of the total sustainable grazing pressure (Parks et al. 1996). Management of feral goats will need to be integrated with the management of other large herbivores to ensure that the total impact of grazing on the vegetation is maintained within ecologically sustainable limits. Feral goats are a generalist herbivore (Coblentz 1977) and can occupy a great variety of habitats. In the arid and semi-arid regions of Australia they tend to be primarily browsers switching to grass and forbs when these are green (Harrington 1986; Wilson et al. 1975). Their feeding habits in more temperate regions tend to be seasonal (O’Brien 1984). The feral goat is reported as responsible for a variety of impacts on native flora and fauna. These include competing with native fauna for food, water and shelter (Lim et al. 1992) and threatening the survival of native flora through their feeding habits. Destruction of vegetation is also thought to cause soil erosion (Yocom 1967), leading to land degradation. Goats are known to persist longer than sheep or kangaroos during drought conditions and this is likely to exacerbate their contribution to land degradation. Appendices nil or very close to it, all animals must be accessible and at risk during the control operation and animals must be killed at a rate higher than their ability to replace losses through breeding. Maintaining an area free from feral goats requires a sustained control operation to prevent reinvasion from surrounding feral goat infested areas or the use of exclusion fences. As a strategy, local eradication is applicable to isolated small populations that are surrounded by feral goat exclusion fences. Intermittent control may be useful as a temporary seasonal measure at sites where competition is a seasonal threat (for example with annual plants) or where the threat is most pronounced during adverse seasonal conditions such as drought. Parkes et al (1996) reviewed current knowledge on techniques for suppressing feral goat populations concluded that a lack of resolve on the part of landowners and land managers is the single greatest obstacle to effective management of feral goats. Currently, there are no plans to implement new control measures for feral goats in NSW. DECC plans to continue existing control programs until the evidence of impacts is reviewed. Direct competition by goats has been identified as a known threat for the Mallee fowl (Leipoa ocellata) only, but is listed as a perceived threat of the black-striped wallaby (Macropus dorsalis) and the brush-tailed rockwallaby (Petrogale penicillata) found in the Namoi (Appendix H). Grazing by goats has reduced the survival and recruitment of several species of threatened plants, including Bertya sp., Boronia ruppii, Diuris tricolor, Polygala linariifolia, Pterostylis cobarensis, and Swainsona murrayana. Grazing by goats has marked effects on the structure and composition of the Candellia pentastylis (ooline) EEC. Competition and Land Degradation by European Rabbits As goats are generalist herbivores they can affect a wide range of plant species including grasses, forbs, herbs and perennial shrubs and trees. Parkes et al (1996) noted that the contribution of feral goats to total grazing pressure could be assessed by estimating the net annual above-ground productivity of vegetation eaten. Using this method, Parkes et al illustrate that goats at average densities of 2 per km2 consume 0.73 tonnes of dry matter per year, an order of magnitude less than average densities of rabbits (~300 per km2) that consume 10 tonnes of dry matter per year. Although this comparative figure may suggest that feral goats are only a minor contributor to land degradation, the fact that goats can survive on a wide range of plants means that their impacts may be greater than other herbivores during periods of drought. Complete removal of feral goats from Australia is well beyond the capacity of available techniques and resources because the species is well established across a vast area. Local eradication is an option for areas which meet strict criteria, but the chances of reinvasion must be “Competition and land degradation by the feral European rabbit, Oryctolagus cuniculus (L.)” is listed as a key threatening process of the EPBC Act 1999 [16 July 2000] and the under Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995 [10 May 2001]. A detailed Threat Abatement Plan for this process has been developed by the Biodiversity Group Environment Australia (1999a) and excerpts from it are provided below: The European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) was released on the Australian mainland in the second half of the 19th century (Stodart and Parer 1988). Wild rabbit populations are now distributed over a large part of the Australian mainland, in Tasmania and on many offshore islands (Flux and Fullagar 1992). It is estimated that rabbits now inhabit an area of some 4.5 million km2 (Myers et al. 1989) or about 60% of Australia (Biodiversity Group Environment Australia 1999b). The distribution of rabbits may be restricted by soil type. Parer and Libke (1985) found that rabbits avoid habitats where soil depth is less than 75 cm, compacted soils such as cracking clays and hard-setting clay subsoils, and deep sand soils as warren construction is impeded. 140 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices The rabbit’s success in Australia can be attributed to a number of factors. These include small body size, which allows selection of high quality feed under favourable conditions (Myers and Bults 1977) and the use of warrens, which offer protection from predators and climatic extremes (Hall and Myers 1978; Parer and Libke 1985). The species also has high fecundity (Gilbert et al. 1987) and is able to colonise modified habitats. native ecosystems, flora and fauna due to the presence of feral pigs, their movement, rooting, wallowing, trampling, tusking or rubbing trees, and consumption of water, animals, plants and soil organisms. Feral pigs provide reservoirs for endemic diseases, can be vectors of exotic diseases, spread the root-rot fungus (Phytophthora cinnamomi), and physically damage plants, providing entry points for infection. The decline and extinction of many of Australia’s terrestrial mammals that weigh between 35 and 5500 g, particularly in the arid and semi-arid zones, is associated with the rabbit’s introduction (Calaby 1969). It has been shown that rabbits inhibit the regeneration of native vegetation (Cooke 1987; Crisp 1978; Lange and Graham 1983); compete with native fauna for food (Dawson and Ellis 1979) and shelter (Martin and Sobey 1983), support populations of introduced canids and felids (Catling 1988), and cause soil erosion (Norman 1988). (Biodiversity Group Environment Australia 1999b). Threatened species that suffer in dietary competition with rabbits include the brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata), rufous bettong (Aepyprymnus refuscens), black-striped wallaby (Macropus dorsalis), and the common (coarse-haired) wombat (Vombatus ursinus). Mallee fowl (Leipoa ocellata) are adversely affected by rabbits through competition for food and/or by alteration and reduction of suitable habitat. Feral pigs present a significant threat to native species and ecological communities as a result of their behaviour and feeding habits. Wallowing and rooting by pigs in the soil causes direct disturbance to habitats (Hone 2002). Further, disturbance of habitats by feral pigs may also facilitate the invasion and spread of weeds, and thus, affect the composition of plant communities. Feral pigs are active predators of native birds, reptiles, (including their eggs), frogs and soil invertebrates such as earthworms as well as the underground storage organs of plants and the fruiting bodies of fungi. Predation by the feral pig was implicated as a major cause of decline in several bird species and direct predation by feral pigs may have contributed to declines in populations of some species of frogs (Campbell 1999). Grazing by rabbits has reduced the survival and recruitment of several species of threatened plants. These include Cyperus conicus, Diuris tricolor, Homoranthus bornhardtiensis, Homoranthus prolixus, Polygala linariifolia, Swainsona murrayana and Thesium australe. Grazing by rabbits has marked effects on the structure and composition of the Inland Grey Box Woodland EEC. Threat abatement measures for control of rabbits in NSW by DECC include plans to develop and implement a program for new control techniques (i.e. RHD virus/ baits), develop and implement rabbit monitoring program at priority sites, survey the distribution and abundance of rabbits, and to continue to implement current control programs on DECC lands until evidence of impacts is reviewed. Several species of birds in the Namoi are threatened by egg loss or nest mound disturbance by feral pigs including the brolga (Grus rubicunda), emu (Dromaius novaehollandiae) and the Australian brush turkey (Alectura lathami). The rufous bettong (Aepyprymnus refuscens) and the silky mouse (Pseudomys apodemoides) species of mammal are threatened through habitat degradation from feral pigs. Likewise, the plant species Chiloglottis platyptera (Barrington tops ant orchid) are threatened by trampling caused by the presence of feral pigs. The following EECs can be heavily impacted by feral pig movement, rooting, wallowing and tree rubbing: Artesian Springs Ecological Community, Semi-evergreen Vine Thicket in the Brigalow Belt South and Nandewar Bioregions, and White Box Yellow Box Blakely’s Red Gum Woodland. Threat abatement measures for control of feral pigs in NSW by DECC include plans to: a) Increase community awareness of the environmental impacts of feral pigs and the need for pig control. b) Develop best practice guidelines for the management of feral pigs. c) Develop pig control programs on private lands at priority sites in collaboration with Catchment Management Authorities Develop and implement feral pig monitoring programs at priority sites. d) Identify priority areas for feral pig control based on evidence of the impacts. e) Conduct research on the use of 1080 pig baits. f) Survey the distribution and abundance of feral pigs. g) Continue current feral pig control programs until evidence of impacts is reviewed and control programs are prioritised. Habitat Degradation by Feral Pigs “Predation, Habitat Degradation, Competition and Disease Transmission by Feral Pigs Sus scrofa Linnaeus 1758” is listed as a key threatening process of the EPBC Act 1999 [6 August 2001] and under Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995 [27 August 2004]. Feral pigs (Sus scrofa) are found across continental Australia with the highest densities in NSW, Qld and through northern Australia to the Kimberley region. Feral pigs are predominantly found in association with wetlands and riparian ecosystems. In 2002, feral pigs were estimated to inhabit 61% of the area of NSW and the ACT. This threatening process includes the impacts on 141 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Competition from Feral Honey Bees debilitated. There is clear evidence that feral cats have caused the decline and extinction of small to medium-sized ground-dwelling native mammals and ground-nesting birds in Australia through predation (Copley 1991; van Rensburg and Bester 1988). Dramatic recoveries of species on islands after the removal of feral cats is evidence of their impact (Dickman 1996). Feral cats continue to threaten the survival of native species that currently persist in low numbers. In the Namoi predation by feral cats is a key threatening process for 14 species of birds, 23 species of mammals and three species of reptiles (Appendix H). “Competition from feral honey bees, Apis mellifera L” is listed as a key threatening process under Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995 [29 November 2002]. Feral honeybees are introduced bees which originally escaped from hives and have subsequently established in the wild, usually in tree hollows, reducing the number of hollows available for native animals to breed and shelter. This is of particular concern for species which are threatened (Ambrose 1982). In one study on sugar gliders the researchers found that 30 of the 59 artificial nest boxes they erected were occupied by honeybees (Suckling and Goldstraw 1989). Honeybees also compete with native fauna for floral resources, such as pollen and nectar. Nectar and pollen are an important food resource for thousands of native animals including birds, arboreal marsupials, and many invertebrates, including more than 2000 species of native bees (Pyke 1990). DECC is still working to develop best practice guidelines for managing feral cats. There are plans to develop and trial a cat-specific bait that will ensure non-target species are not impacted and to develop cost-effective methods for broad-scale control of feral cats. Predation by the European Red Fox “Predation the European red fox Vulpes vulpes (Linnaeus, 1758)” is listed as a key threatening process of the EPBC Act 1999 [16 July 2000] and the under Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995 [20 March 1998]. A detailed Threat Abatement Plan for this process has been developed by the (Biodiversity Group Environment Australia 1999c) and excerpts from it are provided below. While it is now impossible to control feral populations of honeybees, the regulation of hives kept by apiarists, especially in National Parks and nature reserves, may serve to reduce the number of bees competing with native wildlife. Careful consideration should be given to the size and placement of managed hives. Managers have recommended that bees not be banned completely from National Parks due to the role they play in pollination, but the size of the hives should be minimal to retain nectar and pollen for native animals. Foxes were introduced to Australia by English settlers in the 19th century (Rolls 1984), and has become well established over most of the southern half of mainland Australia (Strahan 1995). With our present knowledge of control methods and ecology, eradication of foxes on the mainland is not possible. However, there are effective methods for reducing fox numbers and predation on wildlife in significant areas. A total of 74 priority sites for fox control have been established in NSW, providing recovery actions for 34 threatened species (11 mammals, 15 birds and eight reptiles). Undertaking high-frequency broad-area fox control across all land tenures at these priority sites is the central action of the Fox Threat Abatement Plan for NSW (Biodiversity Group Environment Australia 1999c). In addition, the plan establishes monitoring programs to measure the response of priority threatened species to fox control. In the Namoi, competition from honey bees is listed as a threatening process for the swift parrot (Lathamus discolor), brush-tailed phascogale (Phascogale tapoatafa), squirrel glider (Petaurus norflocencis), yellow-bellied glider (Petaurus australis), pink (Major Mitchell’s) cockatoo (Cacatua leadbeateri), glossy black cockatoo (Calyptorhynchus lathami), and the superb parrot (Polytlis swainsonii). Regionally significant populations that may become threatened include the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecular) and the greater glider (Petauroides volans). Predation by Feral Cats “Predation by feral cats Felis catus (Linnaeus, 1758)” is listed as a key threatening process of the EPBC Act 1999 [16 July 2000] and the under Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995 [24 March 2000]. Cats were deliberately released into the wild in Australia during the 19th century to control rabbits and mice (Rolls 1984) and feral cats are now found in all habitats, except some of the wettest rainforests. The main determinants of local population size appear to be the availability of food and shelters. All species of wild cats prefer live prey and will rarely consume carrion except during droughts or when they are Appendices There is abundant anecdotal, circumstantial and experimental evidence that fox predation is a major threat to the survival of native Australian fauna (Saunders et al. 1995). Terrestrial mammals that weigh between 35 and 5500 grams (small to medium-sized), ground-nesting birds, many of which are endangered or vulnerable, and freshwater turtles are at the greatest risk from foxes. Foxes do not appear to favour any particular habitat and the main determinants of their population size and distribution appear to be food supply, disturbance of natural habitats and refuge availability. In the Namoi, predation by foxes is a key threatening process for 14 species of birds, 22 species of mammals and three species of reptiles (Appendix H). 142 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Currently, there are large-scale plans by DECC to measure changes and the response of a large number of threatened populations to fox control measures and to undertake fox control (baiting) for specific populations throughout NSW. aquatic fauna, habitat and ecosystems. It is less clear what the impacts of carp are on native fish populations, many of which were in decline before carp became widespread. Carp carry a number of disease organisms. Some of these, such as the Asian fish tapeworm (Bothriocephalus acheilognathi) now occur in Australia, and may pose a serious risk to native fish. Predation by Introduced Fish “Predation by Gambusia holbrokki Girard, 1859” is listed as a key threatening process under Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995 [29 January 1999]. Several species of introduced fish can threaten native species of fish and amphibians through competition and predation on individuals or their eggs. Known problematic introduced fish include the plague minnow or mosquito fish (Gambusia holbrokki) and carp (Cyprinus carpio). Gambusia holbrooki (the Plague Minnow or Mosquito Fish) is a small freshwater fish originally introduced into Australia in the 1920s. The fish was imported as an aquarium fish but some were released into creeks around Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Gambusia holbrooki is now widespread in NSW and is an aggressive and voracious predator of native fauna, particularly threatened frogs. There are also potential effects of predation by the plague minnow on non-threatened frog species, freshwater fishes and other aquatic organisms such as macroinvertebrates. Carp were released into the wild in Australia on a number of occasions in the 1800s and 1900s, but did not become widespread until a release of ‘Boolara’ strain of carp from a fish farm into the Murray River near Mildura in 1964. The spread of carp throughout the Murray-Darling Basin coincided with widespread flooding in the early 1970s, but carp were also introduced to new localities, possibly through their use as bait. Introduced carp are now the most abundant large freshwater fish in the Murray-Darling Basin and are the dominant species in many fish communities in south-eastern Australia. A recent NSW Rivers Survey found that carp represent more than 90% of fish biomass in some rivers and have reached densities of up to one fish per square metre of water surface. They also occur in Western Australia and Tasmania and have the potential to spread through many more of Australia’s water systems. Carp could eventually become widespread throughout the country. Carp have benefited from modification of river systems, including construction of dams and other barriers to fish movement, reduced river flows and inundation of floodplains, changes which have had major detrimental impacts on native fish. The biology and ecology of carp are two of the major reasons why they are such an important and successful vertebrate pest in Australia. Carp have broad environmental tolerances and thrive in habitats disturbed and modified by humans such as where flows are altered, nutrients are enriched and streamside vegetation is cleared. Carp cause significant damage to aquatic plants and increase water turbidity, negatively impacting native Appendices Scientists are investigating several ways that carp might be controlled in Australia, including direct assaults on carp through fishing and biological control, and indirect assault through river restoration. Environmental rehabilitation is seen as a way of improving habitat quality to favour native fish. Potential molecular approaches include immuno-contraception to reduce carp fertility, ‘daughterless technology’ in which modification of a sex-determination gene results in production of male offspring only, and the introduction of a fatality gene to kill individuals at a later date. In the Namoi, introduced fish significantly impact the Booroolong frog (Litoria booroolongensis), tusked frog (Adelotus brevis), and the silver perch (Bidyanus bidyanus). Competition from Native Pest Species Competition between native species of birds, which become over-abundant, and those that are less common, particularly in anthropogenically impacted environments, may lead to the local extinction of the rarer species. In urban, suburban or fragmented rural habitats, certain native species, such as the noisy miner (Manorina melanocephala), noisy friarbird (Philemon corniculatus), rainbow lorikeets (Trichoglossus haematodus) and the pied butcherbird (Cracticus nigrogularis) can occur in large numbers and monopolize food resources and nest sites. The aggressive habits of these species may have detrimental effects on other species of native birds. Noisy miners, especially, form complex colonies which aggressively defend their communal territory from all other species of birds (Clarke et al. 2006). The bell miner (M. melanophyrs) and the yellow-throated miner (M. flavigula) have also been implicated in significant changes to bird communities and habitats through Australia. The noisy miners increasing domination of remnant vegetation within the species range is of major concern (Clarke et al. 2006). Some species, like the endangered regent honeyeater (Xanthomyza phrygia) are left few places to forage unmolested. Piper and Catterall (2003) recorded that bird diversity was reduced by half in areas within the range of noisy miner colonies. Bird species smaller than noisy miners were 20–25 more abundant, and their species richness 10-fold greater, outside of miner colonies than within them (Piper and Catterall 2003). Widespread removal of noisy miners from the landscape is not feasible. However, an understanding of what makes a site attractive to a noisy miner colony may allow us to avoid creating habitat that suits them. Noisy miner 143 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 colonies favour edges and will commonly dominate fragmented woodlands, penetrating as much as 150300 m from the remnant’s edge (Piper and Catterall 2003). This means that remnants must be >36 ha and habitat corridors need to be at least > 600 m wide to prevent the incursion of noisy miners (Clarke et al 2006). The influence of noisy miner colonies on other species of woodland birds can be diminished by preventing or reducing habitat fragmentation across the landscape. While corridor linkages may mitigate the decline of certain species of wildlife, they would have no benefit to species impacted by the noisy miner edge effect (Piper and Catterall 2003). Other species may negatively impact threatened native species simply by their copious numbers. For example, the galah (Cacatua roseicapilla) impinges on the breeding success of less common, local species and often damages native vegetation remaining in agricultural areas (Burbridge and Wallace 1995). Likewise, kangaroos can significantly damage native vegetation if present in large numbers. Native pest species not only cause damage to threatened species and community but they also cause social damage by generating negative feelings from the public towards wildlife (Burbridge and Wallace 1995). Pest species need to be controlled at the local level and developing sustainable use of problem indigenous species is recommended (Burbridge and Wallace 1995). Exclusion from foraging habitat and nest predation by pest species threaten five species of vulnerable or endangered birds in the Namoi, including the black-chinned honeyeater (vulnerable), regent honeyeater (endangered), red-lored whistler (endangered), grey-crowned babbler (vulnerable) and the diamond firetail (vulnerable). nised as a major factor contributing to loss of biological diversity and ecological function in aquatic ecosystems, including floodplains. These alterations could cause a large number of species, populations or ecological communities that rely on river flows for their short-term and long-term survival to become threatened. Impacts associated with altering natural flow regimes, include: a) extraction of water which reduces flows, leading to a lower distribution of organic matter on which invertebrates and vertebrates depend on; b) the permanent flooding of wetlands which kills vegetation depending on intermittent flooding, decreasing habitat for invertebrates and waterbirds as a result; c) riparian zone degradation where changes to flows increases erosion, leading to sedimentation impacts upon aquatic communities; d) deeper and more permanent standing water which permits the establishment and spread of exotic species; and e) changes to the physical, chemical and biological conditions of rivers and streams which alters biota. Alteration to the natural flow regimes of rivers and streams and their floodplains and wetlands has been identified as a threat to a number of threatened species and communities. Habitat loss through altered hydrology patterns in rivers and wetlands in the Namoi has been identified as a threat for four species of amphibians, nine species of (wetland) birds, one species of fish, one invertebrate, one mammal and one reptile (Appendix H). A related process, “The installation and operation of instream structures and other mechanisms that alter natural flow regimes of rivers and streams”, is listed as a key threatening process under the Fisheries Management Act 1994. Alteration to the natural flow regimes of rivers, streams, floodplains & wetlands “Alteration to the natural flow regimes of rivers and streams and their floodplains and wetlands” is listed as a key threatening process under Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995 [31 May 2002]. Alteration to natural flow regimes refers to reducing or increasing flows, altering seasonality of flows, changing the frequency, duration, magnitude, timing, predictability and variability of flow events, altering surface and subsurface water levels and changing the rate of rise or fall of water levels (Department of the Environment and Climate Change 2005a). Three human processes have predominantly altered flows in streams, rivers and their floodplains, and wetlands in NSW, these are: building of dams, diversion of flows by structures or extraction, and alteration of flows on floodplains with levees and structures. Alteration to the natural flow regimes of rivers and streams and their floodplains and wetlands is recog- Appendices DECC currently has plans to survey and map structures altering water regimes with respect to affected threatened species and communities as the location of many of these structures throughout NSW is unknown. DECC plans to review NSW Fisheries Scientific Committee determination for installation and operation of in-stream structures that modify flow and NSW Weirs Policy for consideration of the preparation of a joint Threat Abatement Program with DPI (Fisheries). Potential actions to mitigate changes in flow of rivers in streams may include a weirs removal program, causeway and culvert modification, habitat rehabilitation, and adjustments to irrigation quotas. Infection of Amphibians with Chytrid Fungus “Infection of amphibians with chytrid fungus resulting in chytridiomycosis” is listed as a key threatening process of the EPBC Act 1999 [23 July 2002] and under Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995 [22 August 2003]. 144 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 fungus zoospores are contracted through contact with water when released from infected frogs. There is no known treatment once the fungus is contracted. However, as residual populations are increasing in some areas after significant declines, even though chytrids are still present (Berger et al. 1998), it appears that some members of the populations are resistant. Interaction between the fungus and environmental factors, such as temperature and stress, do vary the impact of the disease (Threatened Species Scientific Committee 2007a). However, it appears that in areas where the disease has been for more than five years a balance between Batrachochytrium and the frogs may be developing. Although the disease still occurs, it does not devastate the population (Berger et al. 1999). The long-term prognosis may be good for species which have survived and are recovering as long as remaining habitats are protected to allow damaged populations to re-establish. Chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is a highly virulent fungal pathogen of amphibians capable of causing sporadic deaths in some populations and 100% mortality in others. Chytridiomycosis is potentially fatal to all native species of amphibian. Surviving individuals are believed to be carriers. Some species appear highly susceptible to developing the disease, progressing to death, while other species appear less susceptible to disease manifestations (Threatened Species Scientific Committee 2007a). This may be due to innate characteristics of the species and/or environmental factors. Predicting which species are vulnerable to severe impacts is difficult. Reports indicate stream-associated species in high elevations (>400 m) appear most susceptible, however, the disease also occurs in arid-zone amphibians and across a wide range of other habitats (Threatened Species Scientific Committee 2007a). Stream-associated frog species are more likely to be infected because the pathogen is waterborne (Berger et al. 1999). Fifty species of Australian frogs have been found infected with chytrid fungus since its identification in 1998. In NSW, 22 species, more than one quarter of the total NSW amphibian fauna, have been diagnosed with the disease. In the Namoi, the Booroolong frog (Litoria booroolongensis), Davies tree frog (Litori daviesae), glandular frog (Litoria sublandulosa), and the endangered tusked frog (Adelotus brevis) population in the Nandewar and New England Tablelands bioregions are threatened by chytrid fungus. The tusked frog has declined over much of its range and the listed population has been reduced to a critical level, if it is not already extinct. In addition to chytrid fungus, potential causes of decline of tusked frogs include clearing, habitat modification and predation by introduced fish. Experts identified that a threat abatement plan should have as its aims/priorities to (Threatened Species Scientific Committee 2007a): a) reduce further spread and ensure chytrid-free populations remain so; b) manage the disease in populations where the fungus is known to occur; c) prevent exposure of populations to new strains; d) prioritise and investigate the incidence, impact and possible management responses; e) initiate captive husbandry for highly susceptible species, to ensure at least captive populations; f) re-stock threatened populations; and g) develop a cure. Forty-eight percent of the threatened frog species are known to have infected populations, whilst only 15% of non-listed native frog species have been found infected. This may be due to search effort, however, it may also suggest a relationship between disease occurrence and population vulnerability. Characteristics of threatened species that could make them more vulnerable to greater impacts are low fecundity and remnant populations. Remnant populations could be made extinct by arrival of the disease in previously chytrid-free areas. It appears that environmental degradation is not the key problem in triggering chytrid fungus. If a degraded habitat were the key, researchers would expect the reproductive and nutritional status of frogs to be affected before fatal immuno-suppression occurs (Berger et al 1999). However, moribund frogs have been found which were gravid (Mahoney 1996) and with adequate fat reserves (Berger et al. 1999), suggesting frogs were otherwise healthy before the onset of the infection. Many attributes of the fungus and the disease in the wild are unknown, including reasons for death of hosts, survival of the fungus in the absence of amphibian populations, and place/s and time of origin. It appears Appendices Infection by Psittacine circovial (beak and feather) Disease “Psittacine cicoviral (beak and feather) disease affecting endangered psittacine species and populations” is listed as a key threatening process of the EPBC Act 1999 [04 April 2001] and under Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995 [6 December 2002]. Psittacine Circoviral Disease (PCD) affects parrots and associated species (psittacines birds), and is often fatal. It is caused by a virus that infects and kills the cells of the feather and beak, as well as cells of the immune system, leaving birds vulnerable to bacterial and other infections. PCD has been identified in more than 38 species of captive and wild indigenous psittacine birds in Australia, however all psittacine species are considered susceptible to infection. The disease is widespread in wild parrots, including many common Australian species (e.g. Sulphur-crested Cockatoo, Galah). It is often fatal to birds that contract it, and most species do not respond to treatment. The PCD virus is one of the smallest and most resistant viruses capable of causing disease, and remains viable for many years in nest boxes and hollows. 145 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 There exists an acute and chronic form of PCD. In the acute form, diarrhoea and feather abnormalities are symptoms, and death may occur suddenly within 1–2 weeks of developing clinical signs. The chronic form results in feather, beak and skin abnormalities, with most birds eventually dying. Complete or partial recovery from acute PCD has been recorded in some species (budgerigars, rainbow lorikeet, lovebird, king parrot and eclectus parrot), perhaps related to antibodies in the blood. The majority of psittacine species with chronic PCD do not have antibodies, do not recover, and do not respond to treatment. Appendices limit greenhouse gas emissions. The National Greenhouse Strategy (NGS) for Australia has the goals: “to limit net greenhouse gas emissions, in particular to meet our international commitments; to foster knowledge and understanding of greenhouse issues; and to lay the foundation for adaptation to climate change”. Species with small populations, relatively few breeding birds and few subpopulations are at the greatest risk of becoming endangered through PCD. In the Namoi, the vulnerable listed (TSC) gang gang cockatoo (Callocephalon fimbriatum) is at risk from PCD. The swift parrot (Polytelis swainsonii) is also considered to have a high potential for being adversely impacted by the disease (Garnett and Crowley 2000). A vaccine has been developed which induces immunity in vaccinated birds. Vaccine use is a feasible method of threat abatement for captive bred birds and in regularly captured small populations of wild birds. Thus, small subpopulations of highly endangered species could be targeted with the vaccine. However, reservations have been expressed concerning the value of any vaccine for wild flocks, and there is a need for studies of the effectiveness of any vaccine for treatment of different psittacine species. The NGS actions include development of a “framework for progressing adaptation planning for biodiversity conservation”, including endangered and vulnerable species and communities; assessment of the capacity of protected areas to sustain their biodiversity in the event of climate change; identification of altitudinal and latitudinal buffers; adaptation requirements of species and communities that are likely to be subject to a change in conservation status as a result of climate change; and options for addressing the secondary effects of climate change on biodiversity, such as altered fire regimes. The risk of fire may increase in some areas as the climate changes and decrease in others, with consequent changes to the species composition and structure of ecological communities (Mackey et al 2002). Certain ecosystems may be more affected by climate change including: alpine habitats; coral reefs; wetlands and coastal ecosystems; polar communities; tropical forests; temperate forests; and arid and semi-arid environments. In the Namoi, species and communities most likely to be affected include those found in the most arid regions and those with small ranges limited to high altitude ranges, such as the regionally significant Mount Kaputar rock-skink (Egernia sp.). Climate Change “Loss of climatic habitat caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases” is listed as a key threatening process of the EPBC Act 1999 [04 April 2001] and “Anthropogenic Climate Change” is listed under Schedule 3 of the TSC Act 1995 [3 November 2000]. This threat imposed by climate change consists of “reductions in the bioclimatic range within which a given species or ecological community exists due to changes in the climatic habitat as a result of anthropogenic climate change”. The categories of human-induced activities are: energy; industrial processes; solvent and other product use; agriculture; land-use change and forestry; and waste. Anthropogenic effects mean that climate change is occurring at a faster rate than previously occurred naturally, leading to continental temperature rise, changes in rainfall patterns, changes to the El Nino Southern Oscillation, and sea level rise. A reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases requires an internationally-coordinated effort. As part of this process Australia should be making every effort to significantly reduce its contribution of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Australia is a signatory to the relevant international agreements, and has made a commitment to The distribution of most species, populations and communities is determined, at least at some spatial scale, by climate and many species would be adversely affected unless populations were able to move across the landscape. Species at risk include those with long generations, poor mobility, narrow ranges, specific host relationships, isolated and specialised species and those with large home ranges (Hughes and Westoby 1994). Examples of species which would be at risk in the Namoi include Sloan’s froglet, tusked frog, gang gang cockatoo, Mallee fowl, plains-wanderer, sooty owl, red-tailed black-cockatoo, red-lored whistler, platypus, and the Mount Kaputar rockskink (Appendix H). The present protected area network was not designed specifically to accommodate climate change, and the current biodiversity may not all survive under different climatic conditions (Pouliquen-Young 1999). Conservation planning at the landscape scale could provide opportunities for species to respond to future climate change and address modifications to the present protected area network to account for climate change. Primary and Secondary Poisoning Twenty-one percent of threatened fauna in the Namoi are at risk due to either primary poisoning from the use 146 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 of herbicides, pesticides and other chemicals and/or secondary poisoning through the use of rodenticides to control mouse populations and 1080 in rabbit and fox bates. Herbicides and pesticides pose a great risk to insectivorous bats as the chemicals used to control insect populations become concentrated in their bodies as they feed. The use of pesticides should be avoided in locations where there is a large population of threatened bats, such as near maternity caves. Wetland wildlife, including frogs, turtles, and wetland birds are also at risk from the use of herbicides and pesticides as these chemicals become concentrated in downstream wetlands. The use of these chemicals should be avoided near riparian or wetland areas to avoid run-off into riverine systems. The use of rodenticides place several species of raptor at risk as they feed on the poisoned prey, including the grey falcon (Falco hypoleucos), masked owl (Tyto novaehollandiae), sooty owl (Tyto tenebricosa) and the grass owl (Tyto capensis). The use of rodenticides should be avoided and replaced with trapping whenever feasible, especially in areas within the range of a known raptor pair . In June 2008, the NSW Scientific Committee, established by the Threatened Species Conservation Act made a Final Determination to reject a proposal to list “1080 poison baiting used for the control of vertebrate pest animals” as a key threatening process in Schedule 3 of the TSC Act (NSW Scientific Committee 2008). Poison baiting for the control of vertebrates using 1080 toxin (sodium fluoroacetate) has occurred in Australia since the 1950s. Carnivores such as foxes and wild dogs are typically targeted with meat baits injected with 1080 or manufactured baits which are a composite of grain, meat-meal and various attractants. Herbivores and omnivores, such as rabbits and pigs, are targeted with a wide variety of baits ranging from grain and fresh produce to manufactured baits (NSW Scientific Committee 2008). Because 1080 is a slow-acting toxin (>30 min), direct measurement of field mortality is difficult for both target and non-target fauna. Many factors influence whether bait consumption is fatal including 1080 concentration, body mass of the individual, and sensitivity to 1080, which varies among species and geographically (e.g. many species in Western Australia are far less sensitive to 1080 than their eastern counterparts). Sub-lethal doses may hinder reproduction or debilitate animals, making them vulnerable to predation (McIlroy 1981). Secondary poisoning is possible through consumption of undigested bait in the stomach of a poisoned animal. Target species sometimes vomit stomach contents containing high concentrations of 1080, which is then potentially eaten by non-target fauna. Maggots in meat baits can accumulate enough toxin to kill a vertebrate (e.g. insectivorous bird) that picks multiple maggots from the bait. Secondary poisoning has been demonstrated to kill individual non-target animals but no data are available Appendices demonstrating that such poisoning can cause significant reduction in the population sizes of native species in NSW (Glen et al 2007). In NSW, particular concern has been raised for populations of a non-target carnivore, the spotted-tailed quoll (Dasyurus maculates), which could be affected by baiting for wild dogs and foxes. Recent studies suggest that the risk posed to quolls by 1080 baits may be much less than previously thought (Körtner and Watson 2005). Although some individuals died from consuming 1080 baits during multiple field trials, there is no evidence that the viability of each population of quolls was significantly affected by these losses. Evidence for the impact of 1080 baiting on non-target populations is largely anecdotal, and refers to individuals rather than population effects. Although risk of 1080 baits to non-target fauna is potentially great and mortality of individuals has been recorded, the available research has provided no convincing data that show significant declines at a population level (APVMA 2005; NZERMA 2007). Nonetheless, localised impacts on some nontarget vertebrate populations are possible (Mcilroy 1982), which suggests careful program design and monitoring are essential, especially where less conservative baiting protocols are employed. The Scientific Committee determined that “1080 poison baiting used for the control of vertebrate pest animals” is not eligible to be listed as a Key Threatening Process in Schedule 3 of the TSC Act as there was not substantive evidence in NSW that it adversely affects threatened species, populations or ecological communities, or could cause species, populations or ecological communities that are not threatened to become threatened. Illegal Trapping, Nest-Robbing and Hunting Nine species of birds, including several species of parrots and raptors, are at risk from illegal trapping and nest-robbing of eggs and young for the pet or falconry market (Appendix H). Most of these individuals would be exported as the price they fetch overseas is far greater than prices in Australia. For example, red-tailed black cockatoos (Calyptorhynchus banksii) and the gang gang cockatoo (Callocephalon fimbriatum) are priced at $1750 and $500, respectively, in Australia, yet will fetch a price of ~$9000 overseas. Likewise, common Australian species of parrots such as the sulphur-crested cockatoo (Cacatua galerita) and the galah (Cacatua roseicapilla) are only worth $30-$60 in Australia, but they will bring a price ~$2000 overseas (RIRDC 1997). Under the Wildlife Protection (Regulation of Exports and Imports) Act 1982 it is illegal to export live native birds without a permit. As permits can only be issued to approved institutions or to approved zoological organisa- 147 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 tions for legitimate zoological and scientific purposes, the commercial exports of birds is prohibited, yet nestrobbing and smuggling of birds remains an issue. One species of reptile, the pale-headed snake (Hoplocephalus bitorquatus) is also at risk from the pet trade. Smuggling has a significant detrimental impact because it removes many more animals from the wild than the market requires because of the high in-transit mortality rate. It also results in the destruction of nesting sites and other damage to habitat. Three species of birds and five species of mammals are threatened through persecution by property owners through illegal poisoning and shooting as they are perceived to feed on crops or threaten livestock. Until recently and potentially still ongoing in some areas, brolgas were poisoned and shot because of their feeding incursions into crops following drainage of swamps. More commonly, wedge tailed eagles and dingos are persecuted as they are a perceived threat to lambs. Other species including the Australian bustard, blue-billed duck and freckled duck are hunted illegally (Appendix H). The only abatement measures possible to stem illegal trapping, poisoning and hunting is to increase the level of enforcement of current laws and to increase the public education of the detrimental effects these acts have on biodiversity. Collisions with Vehicles, Fences and Windows It is unlikely that collisions alone have a significant impact on most threatened species. However, too frequent collisions or roadkills can lead to reduced breeding populations augmenting the impact of other threats. Some of these deaths can be easily prevented. For example, collisions with windows are listed as a threatening process affecting the endangered swift parrot and the vulnerable superb parrot. Many of these collisions can be prevented by homeowners near populations of these birds making windows more visible, such as by placing decals on their windows. Barbed wire fences are responsible for the deaths of many birds, flying foxes and gliders. The thousands of animals rescued from barbs each year represent only a minuscule proportion of those caught as most fences are in isolated areas and not checked by humans (Booth 2007). The tentative estimate is that 100,000 to 1 million animals a year are killed in barbed wire based on the extent of barbed wire in the country (Booth 2007). The last census in the 1890s recorded 1.6 million kilometres of fencing in NSW alone, 78% of which was barbed (Booth 2007). Barbed wire fences are considered a significant conservation threat to large bats, including flying foxes, and are considered to be one of the reasons for the loss of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) in most regions of Appendices Australia (Booth 2007). Barbed wire is a significant cause of mortality for gliders, including the vulnerable squirrel glider and regionally significant greater glider in the Namoi Catchment. Birds that fall victim to barbed wire include large waterbirds such as the vulnerable brolga and endangered black-necked stork and terrestrial birds such as the regionally significant emu in the Namoi Catchment. In NSW, dozens of raptors are rescued each year from fences and barbed wire may be a threat to some of the rarer species of owls (Booth 2007). Replacing the top couple of strands with plain wire would save many individuals and there is currently are drive to reduce the use of barbed wire in NSW. Removing barbed wire from fences in ‘hotspots’ around wetlands, creeks, food trees and the tops of ridges is a priority (Booth 2007). The use of highly tensioned plain wire can withstand high loads and is recommended as an alternative to barbed wire fencing (Casey 1994). In Europe many local and country governments have already banned barbed wire fencing due to its impact on wildlife and there are moves within the European Union animal welfare sector to have it banned Europe-wide (Booth 2007). In Australia, the Wildlife Friendly Fencing project (www.wildlifefriendlyfencing.com) with funding from the Threatened Species Network (WWF) is working with landholders to identify and promote alternative approaches to fencing. Efforts to make fences more visible using flagging tape, old CDs, and aluminium tags are also encouraged. Collisions with vehicles, or roadkill, pose a substantial threat to threatened Mallee fowl, powerful owls, masked owls, common ringtail possum, common wombats and koalas. In the case of koalas, males are particularly prone to vehicular collisions during the mating period (Canfield 1991). The frequency of roadkills is greater in areas with pasture growth along the road verge and areas of dense shrub lining the road. Wider shoulders covered with bitumen or gravel on road verges and the provision of under- or over-passes for wildlife may help to decrease the road toll. Cave Damage through Mining Damage to roosting and maternity sites from mining operations and recreational activities such as caving is listed as a threatening process for four threatened species of cave-roosting bats in the Namoi. In addition to direct disturbance, bats may be threatened as the modification to the cave entrances for recreational or tourism activities affects the thermal microclimate of the cave (Richter et al 1992) and the ability of the bats to use torpor (daily hibernation). The recreational and tourism usage of caves should be avoided or carefully monitored by the relevant authorities to ensure that maternity caves or caves that shelter large number of insectivorous bats do not become unusable and/or inaccessible to these threatened species. 148 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendix D: Biodiversity – further reading The general references were originally provided as further reading in the first edition of this assessment produced in 2010. Updated references are provided under the sub-headings below. For references on groundwaterdependent ecosystems, see Appendix I. General Barrett G.W., Ford H.A. and Recher H.F. (1994). 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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(4), 1203. 162 Lower reach of the Namoi River % remaining of pre-European woody vegetation cover Total woody vegetation cover Floodplain wetlands Description Asset Sub-regions regional veg classes impacts on ecological communities (check scale of applicability of threshold) – analysis may need to occur at sub-regional scale Focal scale Trend in condition Area is decreasing, condition is decreasing SLATS data will give rate of change of veg cover over last 10 years – 25% woody veg cover currently Notes on trend Flooding regimes, condition of river system (channel incision), inappropriate water allocations, weed invasion, structure change of wetland vegetation, length of time between waterings, grazing, cropping, climate change utility clearing, mining and development, agricultural practice, disturbance events, (fire/ flood/drought), approved clearing, natural attrition, illegal clearing, climate change Drivers and threats Namoi Wetland Study has information on wetting frequency, significance of wetlands etc. Changed wetting and drying regimes species-area curve, soil loss equation, tree regen./decline models, dieback Conceptual model Controlling variables Biodiversity loss, how much cover of floodplain wetlands can we lose without crippling biodiversity loss. Adequate flooding regime to maintain structure and function - geomorphology threshold – means that water can no longer be delivered to wetlands. Weed threshold? Salinity threshold? Rainfall/water delivery/water management (groundwater) Possible % woody native threshold vegetation cover – biodiversity loss accelerates around 30% and plummets at 70% Threshold – known or suspected Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes linkages to species diversity, riparian health, water quality, connectivity in system, linked back to riparian condition, linked to declining species, ecosystem diversity, connectivity, water quality and quantity, hydrological equilibrium Appendix E: Biodiversity – results from 2010 expert workshops Biodiversity loss, land degradation – erosion, salinity, degrading water quality, climate change, change in rainfall patterns, declining productivity of existing agricultural systems, scenic amenity, ecosystem services – seed, honey, timber etc declining, air quality declines Impacts of continued trend NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 163 Appendices 164 % intact of swamps, bogs, wetlands and less connected systems Waterways specific to asset type and each asset in some cases % intact (need Poor? better term) of ecosystems that are dependent on groundwater cliffs, rocky outcrops, caves, karst, springs Sensitive nonbiotic habitat elements To be resolved Focal scale GDEs declining or high risk Description Species populations Asset Poor Trend in condition Notes on trend draining and grazing groundwater extraction, changed recharge (rainfall and flooding changes), contamination – salinisation grazing, mining, urban development, stream pollution, visitor disturbance Drivers and threats Charles Sturt Uni grazing/wetland stuff, MER Theme team for wetlands – conceptual models work up a draft vague possibly quite wrong and inappropriate model Conceptual model draining (may be an irreversible threshold), cropping (irreversible), % structural decline? water level thresholds – terrestrial veg – below 30 m forget it, salinisation thresholds, toxicity thresholds grazing thresholds, % remaining cover around bat habitat cave, social thresholds around visitation intensity Threshold – known or suspected drained, cropped, grazing regime water availability humidity and temperature in cave (bats), each type (and each one) will have its own specific controlling variable Controlling variables Impacts of continued trend connected to rising/lowering water tables, loss of large areas of vegetation, connected to salinity loss of GDEs and native vegetation (if proportions are as high as report states) bat habitat caves loss of species need water in some cases – linked back to water availability, habitat and veg cover linkages, structural changes because of land use e.g. stalactite reduction due to change temperature regimes (calcium reduction rather than deposition) Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices Local Landscape Connectivity Ecosystem diversity Asset Connectivity provided by small remants and paddock trees on private land 77 Regional Vegetation Classes Description Mid and lower catchment excluding rangelands Focal scale Notes on trend Declining – estimates for rate of tree decline range from 1–5% per annum. Impact is biased towards vegetation types that occur on productive soil types/arable country 16 endangered total extent, % over 50% critically on reserve, % on endangered at private land, the catchment scale – Trend in condition Conceptual model 165 Mortality of existing trees (compaction, increased nutrients, defoliation, clearing, damage by stock, cropping practices). Lack of regen (grazing, cultivation) State and transition model of tree decline that incorporates loss of existing trees and lack of recruitment from regen. This needs to be put in context of landscape cover/ connectivity Utility clearing, as above mining and development, agricultural practice, disturbance events, (fire/ flood/drought), approved clearing, natural attrition, illegal clearing, climate change, grazing and cropping of non-woody classes, invasive perennial species, inappropriate fire regimes, controlled traffic, loss of paddock trees, changes to public land management Drivers and threats as above Controlling variables Connectivity Recruitment. Tree thresholds (could mortality be species specific e.g. Squirrel gliders isolated by >50 m gaps between trees) or other focal groups (e.g. decliner species or woodlanddependent species). Tree mortality thresholds. Policy thresholds (i.e. regrowth becoming native vegetation after 10 years??) as above Threshold – known or suspected Links to threatened and declining species. Landscape theme and implications/ impacts from cropping practices. Links to waterways and riparian health in terms of connectivity along water ways Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes Biodiversity loss, land degradation – erosion, salinity, degrading water quality, climate change, change in rainfall patterns, declining productivity of existing agricultural systems, scenic amenity, ecosystem services – seed, honey, timber etc declining, air quality declines Impacts of continued trend NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices Description including wilderness, NP, reserves, areas managed for conservation % intact rivers and streams and connected wetlands, lakes Asset Large areas of conserved habitat Waterways Focal scale Poor Insufficient Trend in condition Look at area of reserves from 1990 – 2010 Notes on trend declining water quality, species loss, loss of aquatic habitat, impacts on lifestyle, recreation, access to drinking water, increased cost to filter water, breakdown of biodiversity function at the wider scale, economic impacts of reduced freshwater availability, failure of infrastructure, changed wetting and drying regimes Drivers and threats climate change, water regulation, grazing, vegetation removal, weeds, introduced fish species, intensification of agriculture and urban development, Conceptual model NOW looking at vulnerability and fragility thresholds based on geomorphology and water quality indicators. Thresholds in wetting and drying regimes? Threshold – known or suspected Controlling variables vegetation extent, regional connectivity, local connectivity, ecosystem diversity, species diversity, riparian health Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes Impacts of continued trend NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 166 Appendices Description Intact native vegetation communities condition and arrangement of vegetation, habitat Catchment-scale How connectivity Connectivity occurs across the catchment and into other regions Asset Focal scale varying states ranging from good to very poor poor and declining Trend in condition Notes on trend loss of veg and loss of species, secondary extinctions, generational recruitment Regional and catchment level connectivity is not considered at site scales Drivers and threats relictual, fragmented, structure, species richness, cover, weediness, growth stage (condition score) Conceptual model noisy minor threshold, grazing threshold – regeneration, increased weediness – moderate or high being appropriate for investment – factors contributing to poor condition are therefore a threshold. Threshold – known or suspected fragmentation, patch size, condition score, frequency and intensity of grazing/cropping, nutrient cycle status Controlling variables local connectivity, landscape connectivity, species diversity, ecosystem diversity, riparian health riparian condition, large conservation reserves, vegetation extent, ecosystem diversity, species diversity, landscape function, sensitive nonbiotic habitats, Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes Impacts of continued trend NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 167 Appendices Description Liverpool plain red and brown kandosols, red earths chomosols and demosols, Asset/ attribute grazing, mining Versatility in uses LMU Focal scale good – slight loss of soil function, noticeable for not significant deterioration against reference condition Current state stable in relation to sheet erosion. Declining in organic carbon and structural decline Trend in condition erosion trend has stopped due to changed land management practice – land has returned to grazing rather than cropping as it proved less productive than black soils. Shift in land management occurred in the 1960s historical sheet erosion – significant loss of soil function – considerable deterioration against reference condition. Highest current pressure is organic carbon and structural decline. A lot of area grazed beyond its current capability Notes on trend Drivers and threats more stuff being removed from the landscape than returning, carbon not being returned back into the soil, cropping and grazing – plants not established enough to put carbon back in. Structural decline from over tillage, compaction from heavy grazing. Conceptual models available for each of these Conceptual model Controlling variables Soil compaction perennial cover thresholds in red earths – no water infiltration, no opportunity for plant growth. Topsoil loss threshold – once topsoil gone so are most of the seeds, eggs, spores etc Threshold – known or suspected Appendix F: Land – results from 2010 expert workshops links back to run-off variables, surface water quality and quantity, biodiversity, channel incision, soil permeability and recharge of aquifers Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 168 Appendices red chromosols cropping and grazing Duri Hills Versatility in uses Description Asset/ attribute LMU Focal scale good – slight loss of soil function, noticeable for not significant deterioration against reference condition Current state stable Trend in condition sheet erosion – significant loss of soil function – considerable deterioration against reference condition Notes on trend Drivers and threats see Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting of Soil Condition in New South Wales 2008 program Conceptual model for sheet erosion Conceptual model bulk density thresholds depend on texture but 1.4 t/m3 is considered an average value that is acceptable. ESP <3% no limitation associate with sodicity. ESP 3 to 8% under raindrop impact sodicity begins to affect plant growth and management. ESP 8 to 15% under raindrop impact sodicity moderate to severe limitations. ESP >15% under raindrop impact sodicity severe limitations. SOC <0.6% soil carbon levels sufficiently low to affect soil structure Threshold – known or suspected % groundcover/ rainfall/run-off – amount and velocity Controlling variables Links to biodiversity/ vegetation, soil quality, quantity, economic and social implications of reduced productivity Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 169 Appendices self-mulching black vertosols cropping crusty grey and cropping brown vertosols Cryon Plain Liverpool Black Plains brown and grey Cropping vertosols Doreen Plain Versatility in uses Description Asset/ attribute LMU LMU LMU Focal scale 170 good – slight loss of soil function, noticeable for not significant deterioration against reference condition good – slight loss of soil function, noticeable for not significant deterioration against reference condition good – slight loss of soil function, noticeable for not significant deterioration against reference condition Current state Up Up Up Trend in condition soil condition Soil Salinity is improving – low levels of confidence in trend data soil condition wind erosion is improving – low levels of confidence in trend data soil condition wind erosion is improving – low levels of confidence in trend data Notes on trend Drivers and threats see Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting of Soil Condition in New South Wales 2008 program Conceptual model for soil salinity see Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting of Soil Condition in New South Wales 2008 program Conceptual model for sheet erosion see Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting of Soil Condition in New South Wales 2008 program Conceptual model for wind erosion Conceptual model ECe in soil: <2 dS/m nonsaline 2–4 dS/m slightly saline 4–8 dS/m moderately saline 8–16 dS/m very saline >16 dS/m highly saline 70% groundcover – can be difficult to maintain in drought. soil particles <0.9 mm can be moved by wind 70% groundcover – can be difficult to maintain in drought. soil particles <0.9 mm can be moved by wind Threshold – known or suspected Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes Rainfall/soil moisture/ links to biodiversity/ vegetation, soil quality, quantity, economic and social implications of reduced productivity % groundcover/ links to wind biodiversity/ vegetation, soil quality, quantity, economic and social implications of reduced productivity % groundcover/ links to wind biodiversity/ vegetation, soil quality, quantity, economic and social implications of reduced productivity Controlling variables NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices brown vertosols grazing and and brown cropping chomosols Burbugate alluvials/ central mixed soil floodplains cropping black vertosols Liverpool Black Footslopes Versatility in uses Description Asset/ attribute LMU LMU Focal scale good – slight loss of soil function, noticeable for not significant deterioration against reference condition good – slight loss of soil function, noticeable for not significant deterioration against reference condition Current state Up Up Trend in condition soil condition organic carbon is improving decline – low levels of confidence in trend data soil condition Sheet erosion is improving – low levels of confidence in trend data Notes on trend Drivers and threats see Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting of Soil Condition in New South Wales 2008 program Conceptual model for organic carbon decline see Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting of Soil Condition in New South Wales 2008 program Conceptual model for sheet erosion Conceptual model % groundcover/ rainfall/run-off – amount and velocity Controlling variables OC < 0.6% biomass, % beginning groundcover, % to limit the soil carbon functions of soil – aggregate stability, buffering capacity, CEC etc. OC > 3.0% soils have increasing aggregate stability, higher buffering capacity, higher CEC and higher water holding capacity. OC > 8.7% soils becoming peat 70% groundcover. rainfall intensity exceeds soil infiltration. rainfall amount exceeds soil storage capacity Threshold – known or suspected links to biodiversity/ vegetation, soil quality, quantity, economic and social implications of reduced productivity links to biodiversity/ vegetation, soil quality, quantity, economic and social implications of reduced productivity Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 171 Appendices Focal scale LMU Woodlands and LMU grazing Versatility in uses tenosols, grazing and chromosols and cropping sodosols sodosols Pilliga outwash Maules Creek valley floor Description Asset/ attribute fair – Noticeable loss of soil function, noticeable deterioration against soil reference condition fair – Noticeable loss of soil function, noticeable deterioration against soil reference condition Current state stable stable Trend in condition soil condition sheet erosion remains steady Soil condition soil structural remains steady decline Notes on trend Drivers and threats see Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting of Soil Condition in NSW 2008 program Conceptual model for sheet erosion See Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting of Soil Condition in New South Wales 2008 program Conceptual model for sheet erosion Conceptual model Controlling variables 172 70% groundcover. rainfall intensity exceeds soil infiltration. rainfall amount exceeds soil storage capacity % groundcover/ rainfall/run-off – amount and velocity bulk density biomass, % thresholds groundcover, % depend on soil carbon texture but 1.4 t/m3 is considered an average value that is acceptable. ESP <3% no limitation associate with sodicity. ESP 3 to 8% under raindrop impact sodicity begins to affect plant growth and management. ESP 8 to 15% under raindrop impact sodicity moderate to severe limitations. ESP >15% under raindrop impact sodicity severe limitations. SOC <0.6% soil carbon levels sufficiently low to affect soil structure Threshold – known or suspected links to biodiversity/ vegetation, soil quality, quantity, economic and social implications of reduced productivity Links to biodiversity/ vegetation, soil quality, quantity, economic and social implications of reduced productivity Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices brown grazing and chromosols and cropping Yellow sodosols Come-byChance Plain Versatility in uses Description Asset/ attribute LMU Focal scale good – slight loss of soil function, noticeable for not significant deterioration against reference condition Current state stable Trend in condition fair organic carbon – soil condition decline, soil remains steady structural decline Notes on trend Drivers and threats see Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting of Soil Condition in New South Wales 2008 program Conceptual model for organic carbon decline and soil structural decline Conceptual model Controlling variables OC < 0.6% bebiomass, % ginning to limit groundcover, % the functions of soil carbon soil – aggregate stability, buffering capacity, CEC etc. OC > 3.0% soils have increasing aggregate stability, higher buffering capacity, higher CEC and higher water holding capacity. OC > 8.7% soils becoming peat. bulk density thresholds depend on texture but 1.4 t/ m3 is considered an average value that is acceptable. ESP <3% no limitation associate with sodicity. ESP 3 to 8% under raindrop impact sodicity begins to affect plant growth and management. ESP 8 to 15% under raindrop impact sodicity moderate to severe limitations. ESP >15% under raindrop impact sodicity severe limitations. SOC <0.6% soil carbon levels sufficiently low to affect soil structure Threshold – known or suspected links to biodiversity/ vegetation, soil quality, quantity, economic and social implications of reduced productivity Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 173 Appendices Description LMUs/Soil Monitoring Units Asset/ attribute Other soils general Focal scale variable but LMU generally poorer versatility as soil moisture holding capacity and depth decreases Versatility in uses poor Current state � Trend in condition wetting and drying cycles changing, land use, invasive species increasing Notes on trend Drivers and threats ???? Conceptual model Controlling variables soils perennial cover, compaction rainfall thresholds in red earths – no water infiltration and no opportunity for plant growth. Top soil loss thresholds – once topsoil gone so are most of the seeds, eggs, spores etc and limited opportunity to track back down path of degradation Threshold – known or suspected profitability/ productivity, biodiversity – soil and soil biota, groundcover, veg structure, changes in hydrology, aquatic ecosystem instream stuff, water quality, quantity, recharge of aquifers, runoff intensity and frequency, salinisation of waterways, nutrients off site as inputs increase, threatened species linked to soil types, weeds associated with particular soil types/areas, GDE linkages to soil types, damage to infrastructure, profitability impacts on capacity to manage for sustainability and innovate, educate etc. Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 174 Appendices Description sandstone and metamorphic rock outcrops eastern edge and central parts of the catchment – rudosols, chromosols, vertosols and kandosols. Land slope above 15% mid-slope land 8–15% fringing the footslopes, black, grey, red and brown vertosols, redbrown and gla, dermosols, red-brown and yellow kurosols, chromosols, ferrosols, sodosols gentler slopes 2–8%. Kandosols, chromosols, sodosols, dermosols Asset/ attribute Steep Sedimentary Hills Sedimentary Hill slopes Sedimentary footslopes Focal scale 175 grazing on native or improved pastures – areas of cropping being converted back to grazing soils good enough to support improved pastures and grazing LMU native forest, LMU grazing limited by steepness of slopes and lack of water Versatility in uses shallow water tables, salinity levels vary, soils can be relatively shallow with low to moderate fertility, low to moderate water holding capacity, reasonable infiltration and can set hard and be prone to wind erosion, Soils are highly erodible and easily degraded. Run-off can be high when soils are degraded soils are highly erodible, high water infiltration, low to moderate water holding capacity, low to moderate fertility shallow soils, low water holding capacity, low fertility, erosion wide spread, salinity present in some areas Current state gully erosion, acidity, sodicity and biodiversity loss. possible downwards, look at going back to Rob Banks data to establish Trend in condition fire – hot intense burns removing groundcover and organic matter – increases sheet erosion and run-off, Total grazing pressure – goats as feral animals Notes on trend Drivers and threats Conceptual model 70% groundcover. rainfall intensity exceeds soil infiltration. rainfall amount exceeds soil storage capacity Threshold – known or suspected % groundcover/ rainfall/run-off – amount and velocity Controlling variables Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices 176 central black earths highly productive agricultural lands associated with floodplains in the central part of the catchment – less than 2% gentle sedimentary slopes and colluvial fans 2–8% slope sandy Pilliga footslopes riparian corridor Description Asset/ attribute broad acre and irrigated cropping, pasture, grazing, mining, grazing with forestry and nature reserves, being removed from crop production Versatility in uses Focal scale deep with good soil structure, self-mulching, highly fertile in the past but now require high inputs to maintain production, high initial water infiltration rates followed by slow infiltration once soils are wet, runoff high when soils wet, high water holding capacity, deep drainage can be an issues, difficult to manage when wet shallow water tables, acid at depth, shallow soils with low fertility, poor soil structure, low water holding capacity, reasonable infiltration rates, soils can set hard and can be prone to wind erosion, run-off high when soils are degraded, highly erodible and easily degraded Current state erosion, salinity, flooding and biodiversity loss – biggest issues is salinity – hyperwetting of soils and drawing up of naturally salt in soils. Some irrigation related salinity as well. Soil structure decline being addressed by controlled traffic, soils difficult to damage. Trend in condition climate change, high rainfall causing salinity Notes on trend Drivers and threats Conceptual model Threshold – known or suspected Controlling variables Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices Appendix G: Land – description of Namoi Catchment LMUs A Sedimentary Hill Tops and Steep Slopes (Generally >15%). 396 023 Ha B Sedimentary Slopes (Generally 8 - 15%). 442 300 Ha Sedimentary hilltops are generally sandstone or metamorphic rock based or in some cases with a thin capping of basalt and occur in the catchment. This grouping includes some small areas of acid volcanics. This land management unit (LMU A) has a land capability classification of 4 or 5 on the hill tops and 6, 7 or 8 on slopes depending on steepness and soil depth. Sedimentary slopes of greater than 15% occur around the perimeter of the catchment and in the central parts. The soils are shallow lithosols and skeletal red - brown earths plus some rocky outcrops or cliffs. The soils generally have high infiltration with low water holding capabilities, except for some better - textured soils derived from the basalt occurrences. There are no watertable problems and salinity is only a problem where marine sediments occur within the bedrock. While the topography of the hilltops can be flat to gently undulating, physical access to these areas (through the steep slopes) and lack of water limit the grazing potential. The vegetation comprises natural pasture with Ironbark, White Cypress, Hill Red Gum and White Box as scattered timber or as dense tree stands where not cleared on the hilltops. There can be a shrub layer that includes Rosewood, Wilga, Wild Olives and Wattles. Sedimentary slopes of generally 8 - 15% occur often below LMU A as a midslope which fringes most of the plains and footslopes of the Liverpool Plains, Duri Hills, and East Pilliga hills. A minor occurrence of this LMU is found near Bugilbone, in the Darling Riverine Plains section of the catchment, where Cretaceous sandstones outcrop through the alluvium. This unit also includes areas with slopes of less than 8%, but which have very shallow soils and therefore have limited capability. Management unit (LMU B) is characterised by moderately shallow soils (lithosols and skeletal red - brown earths) and rocky outcrops with minor steep slopes and low, cliff - like benches. There are only minor watertable problems on some of the lower slopes, usually where an impermeable layer of rock interrupts the slope. Land capability is classified as 4 or 5 depending on slope and soil depth. Vegetation communities include natural pasture with Ironbark, White Cypress, Hill Red Gum, Bimble Box, Kurrajong and White Box as scattered timber or as dense tree stands where not cleared. There can be a shrub layer that includes Rosewood, Wilga, Wild Olives and Wattles. Land use is predominantly pasture and some native timber with a minor amount of dryland cropping. 177 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 C Sedimentary Footslopes (Generally 2 - 8%). 329 621 Ha. Appendices local sedimentation to include brown or grey clays, black earths, red - brown earths and earthy sands. The riparian corridor is dynamic with many geomorphological zones such as terraces and steep banks interacting with frequent flooding and water level changes. It can also be undulating, with unstable soils and a predominance of River Red Gum communities, many of which are mature, and some Belah communities. Stability of this region is important for water quality and biodiversity. In the upper areas of the catchment (and some lower areas) clearing of this LMU has occurred for cropping and improved pasture with most of the native pasture or forested streambanks being in steeper regions of subcatchments. Sedimentary slopes and colluvial fans of generally 2 - 8% occur as the transition zone from the hills to the floodplain. This land management unit (LMU C) has a land capability classification of 4 - 6 and land use is predominantly pasture or improved pasture with up to 15% of the unit still used for dryland cropping, with forestry and nature reserves occupying a large amount of this LMU. The soils are predominantly deep red earths, red - brown earths and solodic soils. They are generally of moderate fertility, low to moderate water holding capacity and moderate to highly erodible. Shallow watertables (<5m) can occur particularly in the Liverpool Plains, but has also been recorded in the Maules Creek, Narrabri, and Upper Manilla River Districts. Salinities vary with location. Tree vegetation is mainly a mixture of Box (Bimble, Yellow, White and Grey) Casuarina, White Cypress, Kurrajong and Hill Red Gum. There is also a shrub layer that includes rosewood, wilga, wild olives and wattles where this has not been cleared. The area of native pasture is increasing as land is removed from crop production. D1 Upland Bogs and Swamps. 2 881 Ha. This peaty land management unit occurs generally as small valley fills in both the New England Tablelands and the Liverpool Range sections of the Namoi catchment. Minor occurrences are also found in the higher parts of the Nandewar and Warrumbungle Ranges. The unit is much more extensive than could be represented on the catchment maps, mostly due to their confined and narrow, linear nature. These areas are highly significant in that they hold large amounts of water, and gradually release it into the upper reaches of streams and rivers of the catchment. Landuse is generally light grazing or nature reserve, although many of the tablelands swamps have been drained for grazing purposes. Once drained, this LMU ceases to function as a long term water supply to downstream drainage lines. C1 Sandy Pilliga Footslopes (Generally <8%). 226 292 Ha. Sandy Pilliga footslopes and colluvial fans of generally 2 - 8% slope occur as the transition zone from the hills to the floodplain associated with the Jurasic and Cretaceous Pilliga Sandstones. This land management unit (LMU C1) has a land capability classification of 5 - 6 and land use is predominantly pasture or improved pasture with a minor portion of the unit still used for dryland cropping or specialty horticulture, with forestry and nature reserves occupying a large amount of this LMU. The soils are predominantly deep Solodic Soils and Earthy Sands with very sandy to sandy loam topsoil. They are generally of low inherent fertility, low to moderate water holding capacity and are highly erodible. Shallow watertables (<5m) can occur particularly in the Liverpool Plains, and there is often shallow water or varying quality associated where this landscape meets the plains below. Salinities vary with location. Tree vegetation is mainly a mixture of White Cypress and Ironbark, with Bull Oak, and minor Box (Bimble, Yellow, White and Grey) Casuarina, , Kurrajong and Hill Red Gum. There is also a shrub layer that is dominated by a huge variety of wattles, but can include rosewood, wilga, wild olives where this has not been cleared. The area of improved pasture is increasing as land is removed from poorly managed native pasture production or minor crop production. E Central Black Earth Floodplains. 347 380 Ha. D Riparian Corridor. 93 827 Ha The riparian corridor land management unit (LMU D) is generally defined as a 20 metres wide buffer from each streambank and has a land capability classification of 7. This LMU transects most other LMU’s depending on watercourse location and activity throughout the catchment. Soil types vary depending on the base geology of the area and Black Earth Floodplains exist in association with the major rivers and creeks in the central part of the catchment (Liverpool Plains to Narrabri). This land management unit (LMU E) has a land capability classification of 2, 7 or 8. Floodways are where a channel may leave the river, meander, and rejoin steams. The floodplain is that area with a slope of generally <2% slope, is dominated by very extensive backplains, with minor swamp and outwash areas. Soils include deep Black Earths, Brown or Grey clays and some Earthy Sands. Some floodways are farmed, others are managed as pasture and some retain native vegetation of grasses, understorey, River Red Gum, Myall and Grey, Yellow or Bimble Box. The floodplain is intensively farmed and largely cleared of vegetation. This land management unit is a dynamic environment and subject to inundation and severe erosion. Shallow saline groundwaters can be locally extensive in this LMU, particularly in the Goran Basin and at the LMU’s upper reaches. Deep fresh irrigation aquifers are found beneath this LMU where the alluvium sits on a coarse gravel fill over basement material. Most of this LMU is used for cropping (with significant irrigation areas, with a minor portion used for grazing on native and improved pastures. 178 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices E1 Recent Western Floodplains 165 420 Ha E3 Dry Western Floodplains. 286 682 Ha This land management unit includes the recent floodplains along the current course of the Namoi River and Pian Creek within the Darling Riverine Plains section of the catchment west of Narrabri. The LMU consists of modern inset meander plains and backplains and are generally dominated by very deep Grey Clays and minor Black Earths with relatively low stored salt content. These soils represent the most productive soils for agriculture in the Darling Riverine plains section of the Namoi Catchment. High quality groundwater is common under this landscape in deep gravels. Land use includes grazing on native or improved pastures within the high flood areas, but is dominated by broad acre dryland and irrigated cropping systems. Flooding is a common feature of this LMU, and the low elevation areas of the unit are limited for agriculture by frequency of inundation. Land capability ranges from 2 – 5, depending on flood frequency. Vegetation is largely cleared except for the high flood frequency areas, which tend to have River Red Gum, and Coolibah communities, with River Coobah and Myall scattered through this land management unit. This land management unit is characterised by a general absence of major flooding and is dominated by the oldest clay backplains of a former path of the Namoi River within the Darling Riverine Plains section of the Namoi catchment. Localised flooding is common during high rainfall events, but is mostly caused by internal surface drainage. This LMU is dominated by a mixture of Grey Clays and Brown Clays. Subsoil sodicity and salt contents are generally very high. Grazing on Native pastures is the dominant landuse very localised dryland and very minor irrigated cropping. Groundwater access is almost absent from the landscape thought there is some surface water access. Rainfall is generally less reliable in this land management unit, and wind erosion is a common feature during dry periods. Coolibah communities, with River Coobah and Myall are common in this land management unit, and low saltbush species and Mitchell Grass forms a common understorey. E2 High Western Floodplains. 178 030 Ha There are also substantial plain areas of the central catchment (from the Liverpool Plains to Narrabri) that are of very low slope (0 - 2%) which are dominated by a mixture of alluvial soils. This LMU is dominated by very extensive meander plains (which are generally slightly higher in the plain landscape. This land management unit (LMU F) has a land capability classification range of 2 - 7 and the soils are highly variable with Black Earths, Brown and Grey Clays, Red - brown Earths and with minor Chernozems and hardsetting duplex soils depending on the parent material contributing to the alluvium. Localised extensive shallow saline groundwater is generally not a feature of this LMU, however deep fresh irrigation aquifers are found beneath this LMU where the alluvium sits on a coarse gravel fill over basement material. Recharge is generally thought to be from surface streams which have gravel beds that are well connected to the underlying aquifers. Landuse more of a mosaic of cropping and grazing on native or improved pastures, which is largely determined by the fertility and tilth of the soil. Timber generally occurs is isolated or scattered trees, with occasional open woodlands. Native vegetation is mainly Bimble Box, White Box, Rough - barked Apple, River Red Gum and Myall with localised treeless plains dominated by Plains Grass. F Central Mixed Soil Floodplains (0 - 2%). 224 822 Ha. This land management unit is characterised by a much lower flood frequency than the Recent Western Floodplains (LUM E1) within the Darling Riverine Plains section of the Namoi catchment west of Narrabri. The High Western Floodplains are generally dominated by backplains which are an admixture of older alluvium and modern alluvium from infrequent flooding. This LMU is dominated by Grey Clays, with minor occurrences of Brown Clays. Subsoil salt contents are relatively high, which can cause problems when crops forage into the subsoil. Dryland and irrigated cropping are the main landuse of this LMU although, there is a higher proportion of grazing than with LMU E1. Groundwater access is less frequent in this LMU and as a result, opportunities have been lower to develop groundwater for irrigation, although surface water is available in proximity to the Namoi River and Pian Creek. This land management unit is largely cleared for cultivation, although Coolibah communities, with River Coobah and Myall are scattered through this land management unit. Mitchell Grasses form a common groundcover in this land management unit F1 Western Hardsetting Floodplains. 115 058 Ha. This land management unit is generally associated with the Bugwah Formation, which is a series of course and sandier sediments than the surrounding clays, and was generally deposited around the last glacial period (12 – 25, 000 year BP) when the Namoi River had a due north westerly course from Narrabri. Soil types vary 179 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 a lot often over short distances, with Solodic Soils and very sodic Grey and Brown Clays common. A common feature of this LMU is scalding, as near surface subsoils are highly sodic and often very saline. Land use is almost solely grazing on native pastures. Land capability ranges from 6 upwards, due to the soil constraints in this unit. Vegetation is diverse and related to soil type, but includes Bimble Box, Grey Box, Black Box, Coolibah, Belah, Bull Oak, Wilga, Warrior Bush, Leopardwood and Buddah. Various Acacia species occur as an understorey in this unit, along with a variety of saltbush species. Groundcover includes Mitchell Grasses and Spear grasses. F2 Flat Pilliga Outwash. 441 308 Ha. This Land Management Unit dominates the central and north western sections of the Pilliga outwash. The area is dominated by deep Solodic Soils with sandy to loamy sand topsoils, Earthy Sands, Siliceous Sands. Hardsetting, saline and often highly sodic clay soils (Grey, Brown and Red Clays) occur at the terminal northern end of the Pilliga Outwash, where it meets the Darling Riverine plains. Red Earths and Red-brown Earth are common along the western margin of this LMU. These northern areas tend to be prone to severe scalding and sheet erosion. Land capability is generally greater than 5, though some isolated areas with higher rainfall occur in the western margins of this unit where the land is class 4. Land use is diverse but is dominated by Forestry and nature Reserves, with grazing the most common use of cleared lands. Some winter cereal cropping occurs in the western portions of this LMU on the Red Earths. Vegetation is highly diverse, and related to soil type, ranging from low heaths, to open forest and woodlands. Appendices H Basaltic Slopes and Hills (Generally 8 - 20%). 153 396 Ha. Basalt Slopes (8 - 20%) occur flanking the southern edge of the Liverpool Plains sub catchment with some occurrences associated with the Garrawilla, Warrumbungle and Nandewar basalts. This land management unit (LMU H) has a land capability classification of 4,5 or 6. The soils range from Black Earths and Prairie to Brown Clays, Red brown Earths, with soil depth decreasing with increasing slope. Grazing is the dominant landuse but there are some areas of cropping on the lower slopes with deeper soils. Vegetation is usually scattered timber consisting of White and Yellow Box, Myall and Rough barked Apple with some Red Gum in the watercourses and stringybark in higher areas. This LMU is a major source of recharge into groundwater systems. Shallow watertables and salinity are a very minor problem, usually in association with basalt flow edges. H1 High Fertility Basalt Uplands. 43 413 Ha High Fertility Basalt Uplands are a feature of the crest of the Liverpool Ranges and the southern parts of the New England Tablelands part of the Namoi Catchment. Soil types are include both Krasnozems, with Black Earths and Chocolate Soils common in lower rainfall areas. This land management unit (LMU H1) has a land capability classification range of 3 - 6. Land use is dominated by Forestry and Nature Reserves, with the remainder of the lands largely cleared for grazing. Induced soil acidity is a common feature of this Land Management Unit. Vegetation is generally tall open-forest, grading into a low alpine woodland at elevations above 1100 m. G Colluvial Black Earths (Generally 2 - 8%). 229 887 Ha. I A dominant feature of the central part of the Namoi catchment is the alluvial plains and slopes between 2 - 8% that have been predominantly derived from volcanic geological material. This land management unit (LMU G) has a land capability classification of 2 - 4 and the soils are predominantly Black Earths with >200cm depth and reducing in depth as the slope increases. There is a range of other alluvial soils present depending on the parent material contributing to the outwash plains. Land use is mainly summer and winter annual cropping on land up to 5% slope with increasing grazing on lands above 5%. Some localised low slope areas are irrigated for cropping. Most of the native vegetation of Plains Grass has been removed through cultivation. On slope >4% some Box (White, Yellow and Bimble) and other trees remain in isolated remnant woodland arrangements. The long slope areas in this LMU are subject to severe erosion by runoff from above. Shallow saline watertables occur on the lower slopes approaching the footslope – plain junction, and in some areas where underlying rock benches push localised groundwater to the surface Basalt Hills with slopes 20% occur flanking the southern edge of the Liverpool Plains sub catchment with some occurrences associated with the Garrawilla, Warrumbungle and Nandewar basalts. This land management unit (LMU I) has a land capability classification of 6 - 8. The soils are usually shallow and range from Black Earths and Prairie to Brown Clays, Red - brown Earths to Lithosols on upper slopes and skeletal areas. There is some grazing on the lesser slopes with deeper soils in valleys or hilltops. Vegetation is usually uncleared timber consisting of White and Yellow Box, Myall and Rough barked Apple with some Red Gum in the watercourses and stringybark in higher areas. This LMU is a source of recharge into groundwater systems. J Steep Basaltic Hills (Generally >20%). 103 987 Ha. Tablelands Granites. 193 445 Ha. Tablelands Granites are a feature of the northern New England Tablelands part of the Namoi Catchment. Soil types are include Earthy and Siliceous Sands, as well as Soloths and Solodic Soils in lower sloping areas. This Land Management Unit includes a very large slope range 180 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 and associated landform elements which should be considered when developing Best Management Practice (BMP). This land management unit (LMU J) has a land capability classification range of generally greater than 5. Land use is dominated by grazing on improved pastures, with some minor Forestry areas and Nature Reserves. Some minor cereal cropping and horticulture is carried out within LMU J. Induced soil acidity is a common feature of this Land Management Unit, with some areas of salinity occurring in over cleared drier areas. Vegetation is generally a low woodland, with minor areas of open forest occurring in higher rainfall areas. K Tablelands Sedimentary Hills. 67 960 Ha. Tablelands Sediments are a feature of the central parts of the New England Tablelands within the Namoi Catchment. Soil types are generally dominated by silty duplex soils including Solodic Soils and Soloths. This land management unit (LMU K) has a land capability classification range of 4 and above as it includes a range of landforms ranging from footslopes up to steep hills, which should be considered when developing Best Management Practice (BMP). Land use is dominated by grazing on improved pastures, with some minor Forestry areas. Some minor cereal cropping and horticulture is carried out within LMU K. Induced soil acidity is a common feature of this Land Management Unit, with some areas of salinity occurring in over cleared drier areas. Vegetation is generally tall open forest, with some areas of a low woodland, grading into a low alpine woodland at elevations above 1100 m. L Peel Floodplain. 10 487 Ha. The Peel Floodplain forms the main drainage for the Duri Hills, in the eastern and central Tamworth Fold Belt section of the Namoi Catchment. This confined Land Management Unit is dominated by very high quality Chernozems, which are highly utilized for cropping, intensive pasture production, and a range of horticultural and grazing enterprises, including dairying. High quality groundwater is common within this LMU, but the resource is thought to be highly stressed, owing to over allocation of the resource and the increasing demands placed on it by the city of Tamworth. Land Capability is generally Appendices Class 1 or 2 which makes this Land Management Unit this highest value LMU within the Namoi Catchment. Vegetation is largely cleared, but isolated remnant River Red Gum, Yellow Box and Rough-barked Apple can be found. Broad scale flooding is a feature of this landscape. M Duri Hills. 144 827 Ha. The Duri Hills form the generally low undulating hills between the New England Tablelands and the Liverpool Plains sections of the Namoi Catchment. Soil type is generally Red-brown Earths or Non-calcic Brown Soils, with minor Euchrozems and Solodic Soils. This Land Management Unit is thought to have been stripped of soil several times during its formation, and as such, soil depth is generally less than 1.5 m. The limitation of soil depth and soil type has resulted in a low capacity for moisture storage within the soils for cropping. Land capability within this LMU is generally 4 -6. The area is dominated by a mosaic of winter cereal cropping and grazing on both native and improved pastures. The northern parts of this LMU have been cropped intensively in the past and are characterised by extensive sheet, rill and gully erosion, with minor wind erosion. The exposed subsoils which are common in the northern parts of LMU M are often mildly to moderately sodic, and difficult to re-establish pastures on. The vegetation has largely been cleared but remnant open-woodlands dominated by both White Box and Grey Box occur. O Disturbed Land. 2 519 Ha Disturbed lands occur throughout the Namoi Catchment and are generally small road base quarry sites or land fills, however, several large mining areas make up the most of the area of this LMU. Of note is the Woods Reef Asbestos mine site east of Barraba, and the rehabilitated coal mine sites of the Liverpool Plains. As various mining activities continue to expand within the catchment, this LMU will expand over time. Poorly protected disturbed sites form significant sediment sources within the Namoi Catchment, as well as a potential source of pollutants. The land capability of this LMU varies enormously and any Best Management Practice Developed for it would have to be very site specific, taking into consideration the local characteristics of the site. 181 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendix H: Land – further reading Aber J.S. (2012). Wetland Environments: A Global Perspective. John Wiley & Sons. Adam P. (2010). Wetlands and wetland boundaries: problems, expectations, perceptions and reality. Wetlands (Australia), 11(2), 60–67. Bracken L.J. (2010). Overland Flow and Soil Erosion. In Sediment Cascades: An Integrated Approach, 1st ed., 181–216. Wiley�Blackwell. Appendices Neary D.G., P.J. Smethurst, B.R. Baillie, K. C. Petrone, W. E. Cotching and C.C. Baillie. (2010). Does Tree Harvesting in Streamside Management Zones Adversely Affect Stream Turbidity?—preliminary Observations from an Australian Case Study. Journal of Soils and Sediments 10(4), 652– 670. Nie Z. N. and Zollinger R.P. (2012). Impact of deferred grazing and fertilizer on plant population density, ground cover and soil moisture of native pastures in steep hill country of southern Australia. Grass and Forage Science, 67(2), 231–242. Page K.L. and Dalal R.C. (2011). Contribution of natural and drained wetland systems to carbon stocks, CO2, N2O and CH4 fluxes: an Australian perspective. Soil Research, 49(5), 377–388. Callow J.N. (2011a). Potential for vegetation-based river management in dryland, saline catchments. River Research and Applications, 28(8):1072–1092. Claus S., Imgraben S., Brennan K., Carthey A., Daly B., Blakey R., Turak E. and Saintilan N. (2011). Assessing the extent and condition of wetlands in NSW: Project Report. Reicosky D.C., Sauer T.J. and Hatfield J.L. (2011). Challenging balance between productivity and environmental quality: tillage impacts. In: Hatfield and Sauer (Eds), Soil Management: Building a Stable Base for Agriculture. ASA and SSSA, Madison, WI. Harms T.K. and Grimm N.B. (2010). Influence of the hydrologic regime on resource availability in a semi-arid stream-riparian corridor. Ecohydrology, 3(3), 349–359. Roering J.J., Marshall J., Booth A.M., Mort M. and Jin Q. (2010). Evidence for biotic controls on topography and soil production. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 298(1), 183–190. Hart M.R. and Cornish P.S. (2010). Soil sample depth in pasture soils for environmental soil phosphorus testing. Communications in Soil Science and Plant Analysis, 42(1), 100–110. Hurst M.D., Mudd S.M., Walcott R., Attal M. and Yoo K. (2012). Using hilltop curvature to derive the spatial distribution of erosion rates. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117(F2), F02017. Rogers K. and Ralph T.J. (2010). Impacts of hydrological changes on floodplain wetland biota. In: Rogers and Ralph (Eds), Floodplain Wetland Biota in the Murray-Darling Basin: Water and Habitat Requirements, 311–325. CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood. Keith D.A., Rodorea S. and Bedward M. (2010). Decadal change in wetland–woodland boundaries during the late 20th century reflects climatic trends. Global Change Biology, 16(8), 2300–2306. Selle B., Thayalakumaran T. and Morris M. (2010). Understanding salt mobilization from an irrigated catchment in south-eastern Australia. Hydrological Processes, 24(23), 3307–3321. Leigh C., Sheldon F., Kingsford R.T. and Arthington A.H. (2010). Sequential floods drive ’booms’ and wetland persistence in dryland rivers: a synthesis. Marine and Freshwater Research, 61(8), 896–908. Smith R. (2010). Biodiversity and ecosystem services associated with remnant native vegetation in an agricultural floodplain landscape. PhD Thesis, University of New England. Mac Nally R., Cunningham S.C., Baker P.J., Horner G.J. and Thomson J.R. (2011). Dynamics of Murray-Darling floodplain forests under multiple stressors: the past, present and future of an australian icon. Water Resources Research, 47(12), W00G05. Thomas I., Cullen P. and Fletcher M.S. (2010). Ecological drift or stable fire cycles in Tasmania: a resolution. Terra Australis, 32, 341–352. Thoms M. and Parsons M. (2011). Patterns of vegetation community distribution in a large, semi-arid floodplain landscape. River Systems, 19(3), 271–282. Martinez C., Hancock G.R. and Kalma J.D. (2010). Relationships between 137Cs and soil organic carbon (SOC) in cultivated and never-cultivated soils: an Australian example. Geoderma, 158(3), 137–147. Middleton B.A. and T. Kleinebecker. (2012). The Effects of Climate-Change-Induced Drought and Freshwater Wetlands. Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands, 117–147. Tong Y., Deng Z. and Gang D.D. (2011). Nonpoint source pollution. Water Environment Research 83(10), 1683– 1703. Vanwalleghem T., Poesen J., McBratney A. and Deckers J. (2010). Spatial variability of soil horizon depth in natural loess-derived soils. Geoderma, 157(1), 37–45. Whalen J.K. and Sampedro L. (2010). Soil Ecology and Management. CABI Publishing. 182 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendix I: Water – further reading The general references were originally provided as further reading in the first edition of this assessment, produced in 2010. Updated references are provided under the subheadings below. General Bari M.A. and Smettem K.R.J. (2005). A daily salt balance model for representing stram salinity generation process following land use change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2, 1147–1183. Appendices Department of Primary Industries (2008). Identification of high conservation value aquatic ecosystems in the northern Murray-Darling Basin – Pilot project – Namoi Peel results. Report to the Murray-Darling Basin Comission. NSW Department of Primary Industries (Aquatic habitat rehabilitation), Port Stephens. Sinclair Knigh Mertz (2010). Water issues in jurisdictional planning for mining: an overview of current practice. Waterlines report series No. 29. National Water Commission, Canberra. Bewsher Consulting (1995). Hydrological study of Lake Goran. Report No. TS95.052. Prepared for the NSW Department of Water Resources. Thoms M.C., Sheldon F., Roberts J., Harris J. and Hillman T.J. (1996). Scientific panel assessment of environmental flows for the Barwon-Darling River. A report to the Technical Services Division of the New South Wales Department of Land and Water Conservation. NSW Department of Land and Water Conservation. Bish S (1993). Groundwater reconnaissance survey. Gunnedah-Narrabri-Coonabarabran area, New South Wales. Report No. TS93.034. Department of Water Resources Technical Services Division. Townsend C.R., Uhlmann S.S. and Matthaei C.D. (2008). Individual and combined responses of stream ecosystems to multiple stressors. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45, 1810–1819. Brock M.A. Nielsen D.L. Shiel R.J. Green J.D. and Langley J.D. (2003). Drought and aquatic community resilience: the role of eggs and seeds in sediments of temporary wetlands. Freshwater Biology 48, 1207–1218. Walker B.H., Abel N., Anderies J.M. and Ryan P. (2009). Resilience, adaptability, and transformability in the Goulburn-Broken Catchment, Australia. Ecology and Society, 14(1), 12. Brock M.A. (2003). Australian wetland plants and wetlands in the landscape: Conservation of diversity and future management. Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management, 6(1), 29–40. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems Broughton A. (1994). Upper eastern Mooki River catchment hydrogeological investigation and dryland salinity studies. Liverpool Plains, NSW. Volume 1- Report & Volume 2 – Appendices. Report No. TS94.013. Department of Water Resoueces Technical Services Division. Growns I., Astles K. and Gehrke P. (2006). Multiscale spatial and smalle-scale temporal variation in the composition of riverine fish communities. Environmental monitoring and assessment, 114, 553–571. Banks E.W., Simmons C.T., Love A.J. and P Shand. (2011). Assessing spatial and temporal connectivity between surface water and groundwater in a regional catchment: Implications for regional scale water quantity and quality. Journal of Hydrology, 404(1–2)(June 29), 30–49. Barrett C. (2010). Upper Namoi groundwater sources: Resource condition assessment report – 2010. Office of Water (NSW), Sydney. Boulton A.J. (2000). 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Vegetation patches and runofferosion as interacting ecohydrolocial processes in semiarid landscapes. Ecology, 86(2), 288–297. Department of Land and Water Conservation (1998). Namoi Valley water users profiles. DLWC, Tamworth. Department of Primary Industries (2006). The assessment and modification of barriers to fish passage in the Namoi Catchment. Report to the Namoi Catchment Management Authority. NSW Department of Primary Industries, Tamworth. Croke B.F.W., Letcher R.A. and Jakeman A.J. (2006). Development of a distributed flow model for underpinning assessment of water allocation options in the Namoi River Basin, Australia. Journal of Hydrology, 319(1–4), 51–71. 183 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities. (2012). The Community of Native Species Dependent on Natural Discharge of Groundwater from the Great Artesian Basin. Community and Species Profile and Threats Database. 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Ecological Engineering, 36(3), 292–304. Surface water availability – environment Kelly B.F., Larsen J., Giambastiani B.M., Ralph T.J. and Baker A. (2011). Neogene climate change and the impact on the hydrostatigraphy of the lower Namoi Catchment, Australia. AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 1 (December), 0791. Asghar M.N., Khan M.A., Lashbrook B., Zumkley T. and Lawson S. (2011). Hotspots assessment of spatial water losses in the off-farm open channels irrigation supply system. Water Resources Management, 25(5), 1281–1297. Kemp J. (2010). Downstream channel changes on a contracting, Anabranching River: The Lachlan, southeastern Australia. Geomorphology, 121(3), 231–244. Bates B.C., Walker K., Beare S. and Page S. (2010). Incorporating climate change in water allocation planning. Waterlines Report, National Water Commission, Canberra. Kobayashi, T., Ryder D.S., Ralph T.J., Mazumder D., Saintilan N., Iles J., Knowles L., Thomas R. and Hunter S. (2010). Longitudinal spatial variation in ecological conditions in an in-channel floodplain river system during flow pulses. River Research and Applications, 27(4), 461–472. Grafton R.Q. (2010). How to increase the cost-effectiveness of water reform and environmental flows in the Murray-Darling Basin. Agenda, 17(2), 17–40. Pittock J. and Connell D. (2010). Australia demonstrates the planet’s future: water and climate in the Murray– Darling Basin. Water Resources Development, 26(4), 561–578. Leigh C., Sheldon F., Kingsford R.T. and Arthington A.H. (2010). Sequential floods drive ’booms’ and wetland persistence in dryland rivers: a synthesis. Marine and Freshwater Research, 61(8), 896–908. Pittock J. and Finlayson C.M. (2011a). 2. Freshwater Ecosystem Conservation: Principles Versus Policy. In: Connell and Grafton (Eds), Basin Futures, 39. ANU Press, Canberra. Phillips J.D. (2011). Emergence and pseudo-equilibrium in geomorphology. Geomorphology, 132(3), 319–326. Ralph T.J. and Rogers K. (2011). Floodplain wetlands of the Murray-Darling Basin and their freshwater biota. In: Ralph and Rogers (Eds) Floodplain Wetland Biota in the Murray–Darling Basin: Water and Habitat Requirements, 14–28. CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood. Pittock J. and Finlayson C.M. (2011b). Australia’s Murray– Darling Basin: freshwater ecosystem conservation options in an era of climate change. Marine and Freshwater Research, 62(3), 232–243. Sattar F., Wasson R., Pearson D., Boggs G., Ahmad W. and Nawaz M. (2010). the development of geoinformatics based framework to quantify gully erosion. In: International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geo-Conference & Expo. Stromsoe N. and Callow J.N. (2012). The role of vegetation in mitigating the effects of landscape clearing upon dryland stream response trajectory and restoration potential. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 37(2), 180–192. Tooth S. (2012). Arid geomorphology, changing perspectives on timescales of change. Progress in Physical Geography, 36(2), 262–284. Roson R. and Mensbrugghe D.V. (2012). Climate change and economic growth: impacts and interactions. International Journal of Sustainable Economy, 4(3), 270– 285. Swainson B., de Loë R. and Kreutzwiser R. (2011). Sharing water with nature: insights on environmental water allocation from a case study of the Murrumbidgee Catchment, Australia. Water Alternatives, 4(1), 15–34. Surface water availability – people Axelrod J. (2012). Water crisis in the Murray-Darling Basin: Australia attempts to balance agricultural need with environmental reality. Sustainable Development Law & Policy, 12(1), 13. Bates B.C., Walker K., Beare S. and Page S. (2010). Incorporating climate change in water allocation planning. Waterlines Report. National Water Commission, Canberra. 190 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Connell D. and Grafton R.Q. (2011). Basin Futures: Water Reform in the Murray-Darling Basin. ANU E Press. Foster S., van Steenbergen F., Zuleta J. and Garduño H. (2010). Conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water. Appendices Tan P.L., Bowmer K.H. and Baldwin C. (2012). Continued challenges in the policy and legal framework for collaborative water planning. Journal of Hydrology, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.02.021. Grafton R.Q. (2010). How to increase the cost-effectiveness of water reform and environmental flows in the Murray-Darling Basin. Agenda, 17(2), 17–40. Wei Y., Langford J., Willett I.R., Barlow S. and Lyle C. (2011). Is irrigated agriculture in the Murray Darling Basin well prepared to deal with reductions in water availability? Global Environmental Change, 21(3), 906–916. Hone S., Foster A., Hafi A., Goesch T., Sanders O., Mackinnon D. and Dyack B. (2010). Assessing the Future Impact of the Australian Government Environmental Water Purchase Program. ABARE. Surface water quantity Leblanc M., Tweed S., Van Dijk A. and Timbal B. (2011). A review of historic and future hydrological changes in the Murray-Darling Basin. Global and Planetary Change. Grafton, R.Q. and Jiang Q. (2011). Economic effects of water recovery on irrigated agriculture in the MurrayDarling basin. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 55(4), 487–499. Connell D. and Grafton R.Q. (2011). Basin Futures: Water Reform in the Murray-Darling Basin. ANU E Press. Crossman N.D., Connor J.D., Bryan B.A., Summers D.M. and Ginnivan. (2010). Reconfiguring an Irrigation Landscape to Improve Provision of Ecosystem Services. Ecological Economics, 69(5)(March 15), 1031–1042. 191 The amount of groundwater available to people and the environment The ability of water to infiltrate and move through the landscape and therefore recharge aquifers The freshness and usability of aquifers for use by people and the environment Groundwater recharge optimal level of groundwater quality Description Groundwater availability Asset 192 Groundwater management zone, aquifer, catchment? Groundwater management zone, aquifer, catchment? Groundwater management zone, aquifer, catchment? Focal scale Variable Unknown Adequate Current state Unknown Trend in condition Not enough datasets to be conclusive but atrazine has been picked up Drivers and threats bores retired from production, drinking water, stock water, irrigation water supply affected, GDE’s adversely affected, soil degradation from using poor quality water ? extraction, climate change, bed and bank incision, pollution from chemicals and salt Conceptual model biophysical thresholds – aquifer integrity. Access to water thresholds. Management response threshold relating to protecting aquifers, GDE water availability thresholds Threshold – known or suspected recharge rate (rainfall and land use) – recharge has multiple types and interrelationships poorly understood – needs work. Extraction rate Controlling variables Neil Lavitt, Reductions extraction (can Rob Banks, in types of draw down conceptual use possible, salty water models from contaminated from shallower groundwater base flows, GDE aquifers or parts studies, 10 years health declining of aquifers), work on the (ANZECC distance Liverpool Plains guidelines). Crop from crop, guidelines (plant recharge, type tolerance stuff of rock water George T.) is travelling through river incision, ? vegetation change (plantings, bushfire), extraction particularly in relation to disconnection or compaction of aquifers aquifer collapse, Extraction, reduced policy, climate availability change of water (management response) Consequence of continuing trend don’t really know aquifer collapse, how much is reduced coming from availability of slope recharge, water floodplain recharge, deep drainage etc uncertainty as to whether monitoring locations are appropriate and impact of policy changes already made but yet to play out in full Notes on trend Appendix J: Water – results from 2010 expert workshops links to the gde issues in biodiversity theme Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices 193 The amount of surface water available to people surface water available to people Catchment, Water sharing plan area? The amount of Catchment, surface water Water sharing available to the plan area? environment surface water availability – environment Current state ? poor water Poor sharing plans – water source, catchment, management zones Focal scale The amount of water in the catchment Description surface water quantity Asset Trend in condition Conceptual model climate, policy, declines in quality, changed land management high degree of uncertainty in unreg systems, IQQM models available for reg systems high degree of uncertainty in unreg systems, IQQM models available for reg systems extraction flow information (including modelled, population climate change growth, industry models, water and agriculture), sharing plan climate change models (reduced rainfall), changes in rainfall pattern, afforestation, land-use change, urbanisation (stormwater) Drivers and threats improved climate, environmental afforestation, outcomes, changed land Decreased water management, available for policy other users reduced availability for use, increased pressure on groundwater systems, aquatic health declines, reduction to habitat quality, changes to geomorphology Consequence of continuing trend decreasing due decreased to the drying drinking, stock environment and and irrigation policy decisions water, industry water, towns, recreation, GDE’s trend improving because of environmental water allocation – remains to be seen if it will be offset by general drying of the environment Long-term predicted trend is down – drying environment Notes on trend minimum flow for population size, minimum flow for sustainable agriculture – UNE David Thompson, economic impacts of water sharing plans not enough thresholds to be able to manage environmental variance captured in water sharing plans as a best guess. Thresholds at the farm scale, minimal viable availability and feasibility Threshold – known or suspected rainfall, allocation, CAP, Extraction limits – competition for use, price rainfall, extraction (extraction), losses? Controlling variables Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices 194 water independent of the floodplain and the river – perched wetlands etc the degree to Catchment, which surface Water sharing and groundwater plan area? (and groundwater and groundwater) sources are connected local flows hydrological connectivity Local catchment Variable Catchment, Water sharing plan area? Poor Current state In-stream flows surface water flows that stay within bed and bank Focal scale ? Description floodplain flows subcomponent Catchment, of surface water Water sharing availability plan area? that has strong influences on ground hydrology, wetland health etc. Within river flows that break out and local overland flows Asset changing in different ways for different areas but probably overall downwards � � � Trend in condition Continued water quality and quantity decline, degraded geomorphology, failing riparian vegetation reductions in groundwater recharge, floodplain wetland condition and extent declining, floodplain health reduced, some reduction in fish breeding Consequence of continuing trend significant impacts on groundwater recharge, potential for streams to lose more to base flow thus reducing surface water availability based on drying reductions in climate and farm groundwater dams recharge, floodplain wetland condition and extent declining, floodplain health reduced, some reduction in fish breeding based largely on reductions in water entering the system – drying environment Notes on trend Conceptual model ? ? incision of ? streams, downward trends in rainfall, changed flow regimes – quicker overland flows regulation, drying environment, extraction regulation, drying environment, extraction ? ? ? extraction Find conceptual ? (including model of population floodplain flow growth, industry function and agriculture), climate change (reduced rainfall), changes in rainfall pattern, afforestation, land-use change, urbanisation (stormwater) Drivers and threats Threshold – known or suspected ? ? ? ? Controlling variables Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices Description Focal scale native fish number of fish Catchment, species present Water sharing and number of plan area? fish present river stable and Catchment, geomorphology functioning Water sharing geomorphology plan area? in the catchment Asset 10% or preeuropean levels bad Current state Trend in condition NOW has mapped recovery potential and fragility Notes on trend Fish species extinct, reduced genetic stock, knock on effects to ecosystems, populations down to 5% within 40–50 years incision of streams, turbidity and water quality declining, reduced aquifer recharge, reduced floodplain wetting, wetland health declines, instream habitat destruction, reduced recovery potential of the system, Consequence of continuing trend Conceptual model Threshold – known or suspected regulation, pollution, temperature change, riparian degradation, erosion, desnagging, introduced spp. Some water quality thresholds for native fish, temperature and BOD thresholds, salinity thresholds, breeding triggers, migration triggers, thresholds applicable to macroinvertebrate availability and larvae stage changed flow NOW – recovery NOW – recovery regime – both potential potential reg and unreg and fragility thresholds systems, – combination of increased rate river styles, veg of run-off and condition and floods, removal water sharing of in-stream planning model structures, reduced riparian vegetation (cropping, clearing, grazing, tree death), gravel/sand extraction Drivers and threats Controlling variables Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 195 Appendices 196 riparian buffers vegetation including grasslands etc that filter and buffer water from land-use impacts Threatened water dependent entities that are ecosystems, water dependent populations and species Aquatic as above except vertebrate fauna insert aquatic (non-fish) vertebrate fauna species Catchment, Water sharing plan area? as above except Catchment, insert aquatic Water sharing vegetation plan area? species Aquatic vegetation Focal scale as above except Catchment, insert macroWater sharing invertebrate plan area? Description invertebrate community Asset poor – better in cotton areas ? poor Current state ? Declines in-stream species of frog particularly in the uplands Trend in condition Consequence of continuing trend need to confirm with data Assumptions would be that it would be down based on river geomorphology and other parameters based on river geomorphology declines etc – check UNE work for relevance Fish species extinct, reduced genetic stock, knock on effects to ecosystems, populations down to 5% within 40–50 years SRA report, UNE Fish species extinct, reduced genetic stock, knock on effects to ecosystems, populations down to 5% within 40–50 years Notes on trend regulation, ? pollution, temperature change, riparian degradation, erosion, desnagging, introduced spp. regulation, ? pollution, temperature change, riparian degradation, erosion, desnagging, introduced spp. Drivers and threats Conceptual model Quality, flow ? regime, quantity, triggers, Quality, flow ? regime, quantity, triggers, Threshold – known or suspected Controlling variables Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices Focal scale Current state poor Healthy riparian KEY ASSET that poor – less than vegetation underpins a lot 10% introduced of things vegetation in the riparian buffer as defined by Riparian vegetation assessment Description optimal level of as expected Catchment, water quality by natural Water sharing conditions plan area? (benchmarks/ reference sites) riparian vegetation Asset Trend in condition recent reductions in chemical contamination, salinity up and down. Turbidity very bad and stable Need to go back to Ecological and find out the details Notes on trend Continued water quality decline and subsequent available fresh water impacts further fragmentation of landscape corridor, reduction in water quality, loss of ecosystems, fish species extinctions, river geomorph further degraded Consequence of continuing trend Conceptual model Queensland may have some models. Land and Water Australia, index of stream condition, Vera Banks die back phd. Grazing models Land-use ? change, agricultural practices leading to diffuse source pollution, point source pollution, in-stream erosion, salty landscapes Regulation, age of vegetation, poor quality, loss of geomorphology Drivers and threats Controlling variables Linkages/ feedbacks to other assets or themes national health ? and medical research council – guidelines for recreation water quality condition grazing, clearing, linked to thresholds, flow, inv spp. In geomorphology, structure, some areas buffering, recruitment etc, biodiversity groundcover, weediness, lippia Threshold – known or suspected NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 197 Appendices lifestyle amenity Imported capital Economic diversity Flow – to be addressed by general resilience assessment combination of all financial/ social Financial/ Built Infrastructure Built soft infrastructure Villages Built Flows resulting from capital combination of all Major centres Asset Built Capital 198 ? ? condition Trend in 50% agriculture, 60% irrigationdependent, whole of catchment might be upwards particularly around Tamworth more options to adapt to change through the variety of industries and sectors to access. Also may lead to improved diversity of response. Can extend too far and too much economic diversity can lead to fewer economies of scale. Land use, ABS stats about gross production etc improved capital may have positive flow- ? on effects by drawing human capital due to the financial resources available, may cause a breakdown in social cohesion and fracture responses to change. Learnings that are brought in from elsewhere are very important Councils, surveys Council, socioeconomic reviews, ABS good infrastructure may result in Council? improved diversity of responses to issues as outlined in major centres less capacity in terms of just numbers ABS data and limitations on diversity of responses, infrastructure problems, spin off effects of resource scrabbling in response to poverty, loss of critical mass and difficulty in identifying leadership, self organisation breaks down highly dependent on location on same as above richer people buying land in the catchment – may have down side of inflating property market and could cause restructuring of some communities How to measure discussions about water use are city ABS data centric, urbanisation of landscapes, may have increased diversity which will potentially improve the diversity of response, may attract high human capital by built amenity and services which will improve diversity of response Effect on adaptive capacity some smaller schools may close, supports wellbeing and capacity to health services poor but stable understand and adapt to change by direct servicing, also supports human capital and may lead to more diverse responses As agriculture sheds labour western centres are declining Notes on trend Identification of assets and how they impact on adaptive capacity Can we act on it – How? Appendix K: People – results from 2010 expert workshops Communities do not act alone but are connected to other scales of activity… need to take into account complexity of institutions/ governance Notes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices Knowledge and data Cultural diversity sense of belonging self knowledge health proximity to other places Human/ built human/ social human/social human/ social human/ social natural leadership human capacity to imagine a different future Experience human human Intellectual capital Human skills distribution of wealth financial/ social human Industries Asset Financial/ Built Capital Flows resulting from capital Trend in 199 ? ? ? ? ? condition Effect on adaptive capacity to higher level services or at least perception of May be increased diagnosis locus of control moving to government etc and away from self plenty around, may be overload issues, effective knowledge is different, but knowledge and data is generally increasing but if it is age dependent and ageing population – then it should be down too demand also increasing – some losses in knowledge – preserve making etc different ideas as to whether it is there or not or improving or declining improving access to knowledge – internet, KPI may not necessarily be tertiary education More disparity in distribution of wealth but everybody overall better off scale issues – strong industry some industries (e.g. irrigation) are components driving employment very important to the economic and but agriculture shedding labour social structure of the catchment and restructure resulting from biophysical thresholds being crossed will be costly from an economic and social perspective. Notes on trend Stays the same – don’t need to measure change Councils, ABS – other reports etc ? ? ? Expert opinion ? ABS – councils? ? ? ? ABS data ABS data, gross productivity data, Cotton CRC drought studies and work on cotton catchment communities work How to measure Can we act on it – How? Notes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices 200 social cohesion social Social networks equity shared history social value/ human/ social mixture of ages, sexes social migration complexity of communities Social social/ human/ built/ financial shared purpose Asset Social Capital Might be a flow from various capitals Flows resulting from capital Trend in societies becoming more individualistic ageing population – mixes of sexes pretty even still location sensitive, scale sensitive, some segments can act collectively when required Notes on trend ? How to measure Lack of equity or perception of lack impedes engagement in activity… a predictor of communities doing well after catastrophic events Shared history can be a positive and is often associated with response and recovery of community. Can also be bad and associated with reluctance to change and adapt Partnerships project – other social connectivity work? UNE? ? ABS measures of community groups, narratives etc ? ABS big impact on how communities respond ABS data – council survey information, IPSOS Effect on adaptive capacity No clear some evidence that some reflection of cohesion and could reflect trend traditional social networks some of the same effects on adaptive such as churches and some capacity sporting clubs declining but total number of organised groups and networks stable or increasing. Communication networks and opportunities have increased (mobile phones – txting, internet – facebook, twitter etc) but it is unclear how these support of improve social networks. ? condition Can we act on it – How? smaller regional communities – a handful of social nodes are becoming very stretched – lack of succession planning and leadership development. Need to maximise the opportunities for access by community and skills development. adaptation might not be in socially accepted norms or ecologically favourable social cohesion can be used to ‘manage’ people and diversity working with people, along a continuum – most people stuff can be either good or bad dependent on circumstances disaster literature Notes NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendices Results from process of considering trend of natural resources and likely impact on people of continued trend Asset Trend Impact on people Notes on impact depends on an individual persons or groups sensitivity to species loss Catchment-scale Connectivity Farmers – reduced profitability/productivity, changed aesthetics, greater regulatory pressure, greater peer pressure, threat to identity. General community – changed aesthetics, lost lifestyle amenity, lost development and investment opportunity. Impacts on spirituality, totem affiliations, impacts on wellbeing, can no longer use particular species (thresholds already crossed – access is no longer possible). General decline in social and emotional wellbeing. Local Landscape Connectivity Farmers – reduced profitability/productivity, changed aesthetics, greater regulatory pressure, greater peer pressure, threat to identity. General community – changed aesthetics, lost lifestyle amenity, lost development and investment opportunity. Impacts on spirituality, totem affiliations, impacts on wellbeing, can no longer use particular species (thresholds already crossed – access is no longer possible). General decline in social and emotional wellbeing. Total Woody Vegetation cover Farmers – reduced profitability/productivity, changed aesthetics, greater regulatory pressure, greater peer pressure, threat to identity. General community – changed aesthetics, lost lifestyle amenity, lost development and investment opportunity. Impacts on spirituality, totem affiliations, impacts on wellbeing, can no longer use particular species (thresholds already crossed – access is no longer possible). General decline in social and emotional wellbeing. Floodplain wetlands Land managers – reduced profitability/productivity, changed aesthetics, greater regulatory pressure, greater peer pressure, threat to identity. Catchment Community – lost lifestyle amenity, lost development and investment opportunity. Impacts on spirituality, totem affiliations, impacts on wellbeing, can no longer use particular species (thresholds already crossed – access is no longer possible). General decline in social and emotional wellbeing. Species populations Loss of tourism, loss of identity, sadness, loss of cultural memory Large areas of conserved habitat Intact native vegetation communities Loss of tourism, scenic amenity, health and wellbeing. Waterways – connected No drinking water, no irrigation, loss of tourism, loss of recreation opportunity (water sports, fishing) – end point could be reduced habitation Waterways – unconnected Groundwater dependent towns with no water or no potable water. GDEs Could lead to decline of significant areas of veg – natural ecosystem and therefore all the veg loss things apply. Sensitive nonbiotic habitat elements Loss of recreation, tourism, wellbeing Ecosystem diversity Medicine, cultural knowledge of habitat, critical habitat Total asset might be improving however condition of individual pieces might be declining due to visitor pressure 201 In general the loss of any of these things leads to a contraction of economic activity and diversity NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Asset Trend Appendices Impact on people Notes on impact drought refugia TSRs loss of access to areas of naturalness, recreation, tourism, wellbeing towns running out of water, irrigation not possible, reduced economic activity, optimal level of groundwater quality Water not drinkable, health implications, water not usable for industry, agriculture, economic losses surface water quantity Water not drinkable, health implications, water not usable for industry, agriculture, economic losses surface water availability – environment Same impacts as for biodiversity – boils down to quality of life, reduction to choices – social impacts of fragmentation, blame, loss. Resource shortages do bad things to societies sensitivity will vary across individuals and communities surface water available to people No drinking water, no irrigation, loss of tourism, loss of recreation opportunity (water sports, fishing) – end point could be reduced habitation Generalised trend of resource decline leads to economic stagnation – aged infrastructure etc floodplain flows May be an increase in access to floodplains due to changed flooding pattern, increased cropping opportunity In-stream flows Same as for water availability and biodiversity loss local flows as above Water Groundwater availability Groundwater recharge hydrological connectivity ? changing in different ways for different areas but probably overall downwards Spiritual impoverishment associated with degraded environments. Loss of creative responses to beautiful places as above river geomorphology native fish same as for biodiversity – loss of tourism, recreation, food supply, identity, spiritual connections invertebrate community same as for biodiversity – loss of tourism, recreation, food supply, identity, spiritual connections Grief might become a bigger issue as species are lost and ways of life are no longer possible – mental health issues Aquatic vegetation ? Self delusion – community delusion as a coping mechanism Aquatic vertebrate fauna (non-fish) ? Declines instream species of frog particularly in the uplands Threatened things that are water dependent riparian buffers 202 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Asset Trend Appendices Impact on people Notes on impact riparian vegetation cultural, recreational, water quality losses, same impacts as for biodiversity optimal level of water quality health implications, same as for biodiversity, no drinking water, reduced use of water, reduced wellbeing. Spin off in environmental impacts of importing water As resources decline and people may be forced to move – knock on impacts on other communities that are the receiver of migrants Landscape Soils, geomorphology/ topography Liverpool plain red earths stable in relation to sheet erosion. Declining in organic carbon and structural decline. Duri Hills stable Steep Sedimentary Hills possible downwards, look at going back to Rob Banks data to establish Liverpool black soil plains Impacts of resource use conflict on social cohesion, economies, individual wellbeing etc – aggression, disenchantment, disengagement flow-on effects from impacts on productivity. Recognisable community and sectoral impacts that can be addressed in this structure Burbugate Alluvials/central mixed soil floodplains People become paralysed and feel hopeless – no points of access when confronted with lots of downward arrows. Need to maintain capacity to affect outcomes. Flat Pilliga outwash/Pilliga outwash Overload of information regarding the ‘bad news’ in natural resource management. Sedimentary Hill slopes gully erosion, acidity, sodicity and biodiversity loss. Sedimentary footslopes sandy Pilliga footslopes riparian corridor central black earths erosion, salinity, flooding and biodiversity loss – biggest issues is salinity – hyperwetting of soils and drawing up of naturally salt in soils. Some irrigation related salinity as well. Soil structure decline being addressed by controlled traffic, soils difficult to damage. flow-on effects from impacts on productivity. 203 Recognisable community and sectoral impacts that can be addressed in this structure NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Appendix L: People – further reading Blair S., Campbell M., Lowe T. and Campbell C. (2011). Securing the human perimeter: beyond operational approaches to developing community capacity to live with fire. Two examples from Victoria, Australia. In: Proceedings of the Second Conference on the Human Dimensions of Wildland Fire GTR-NRS-P, 84, 36. The five ‘capitals’ Adams S. and Simnett R. (2011). Integrated reporting: an opportunity for Australia’s not-for-profit sector. Australian Accounting Review, 21(3), 292–301. Agarwal R. and Green R. (2011). The role of education and skills in australian management practice and productivity. Fostering Enterprise: The innovation and skills nexus– research readings, 79. NCVER, Melbourne. Allan J., Clifford A., Ball P., Alston M. and Meister P. (2012). ‘You’re less complete if you haven’t got a can in your hand’: Alcohol consumption and related harmful effects in rural Australia: the role and influence of cultural capital. Alcohol and Alcoholism, 47 (5), 624–629. Alston M. (2011). Gender and climate change in Australia. Journal of Sociology, 47(1), 53–70. Alston M. (2012). Synthesis paper on socioeconomic factors relating to agriculture and community development. Crop and Pasture Science, 63(3), 232–239. Anwar McHenry J. (2011). 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Quaternary Science Reviews, 30 (27), 3743–3747. 209 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 List of figures Figure 1: Figure 2: Figure 3: Figure 4: Figure 5: Figure 6: Figure 7: Figure 8: Figure 9: Figure 10: Figure 11: Figure 12: Figure 13: Figure 14: Figure 15: Figure 16: Figure 17: Figure 18: Figure 19: Figure 20: Figure 21: Figure 22: Figure 23: Figure 24: Figure 25: Figure 26: Figure 27: Figure 28: Figure 29: Figure 30: Figure 31: Figure 32: Figure 33: Figure 34: Figure 35: Figure 36: Figure 37: Figure 38: Figure 39: Figure 40: Figure 41: Figure 42: Figure 43: Figure 44: Figure 45: Conceptual model of how biodiversity assets interact to provide ‘biodiversity’ in the catchment.; an ‘arrow to’ represents a contribution from an ‘arrow from’ asset ........................................................... 10 Conceptual model describing the process of tree loss ..............................................................................11 Ecological function of scattered trees........................................................................................................12 Conceptual model of the processes underlying rural dieback ....................................................................12 Conceptual model of the development of rural dieback ............................................................................ 13 Effect of drought water stress on trees ..................................................................................................... 13 Effect of falling water-table water stress on trees ..................................................................................... 14 Effect of lack of river flooding water stress on trees .................................................................................. 14 Effect of prolonged inundation water stress on trees ................................................................................ 15 Effect of dryland salinity on trees ............................................................................................................. 15 Effect of insect damage (New England type dieback) on trees .................................................................. 16 Effect of insect attack and noisy miner dominance on trees ..................................................................... 16 Significant ecological and evolutionary processes in relation to geographical and temporal scale ............17 Relationship between habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and habitat quality within an area ................... 18 Flow diagram differentiating between landscapes experiencing habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and changes in habitat quality ............................................................................... 18 Schematic representation of changes in the extent of fragmentation over time (typical pattern for inland catchments of NSW, including the Namoi) ........................................................ 18 Generalised model of the relationship between microclimate and the distance from the edge of a forest .19 Role of functional connectivity...................................................................................................................19 Detail of the Western Woodlands Way proposal showing options for connectivity maintenance and restoration across and beyond the Namoi Catchment ...................................................19 Detail of the Namoi Catchment Biodiversity Conservation Plan showing options for connectivity maintenance and restoration within and beyond the Namoi Catchment ................................19 Woodland bird richness as it relates to tree cover .....................................................................................21 Key interactions between ecological and hydrological processes ..............................................................21 Decision tree for assigning priorities to each biodiversity attribute for landscapes with more than 70% native vegetation cover ............................................................................................. 22 Decision tree for assigning priorities to each biodiversity attribute for landscapes with 30–70% native vegetation cover........................................................................................................ 22 Decision tree for assigning priorities to each biodiversity attribute for landscapes with 10–30% native vegetation cover........................................................................................................ 23 Diagnosis of landscapes as classified in the framework outlined in Figures 23–25 ................................... 23 Conceptual illustration of the relationship between extinction of species and native vegetation cover..... 24 A series of species-area curves in relation to per cent native vegetation remaining ................................. 24 Percentage of remaining woody native vegetation by grid cells ................................................................ 24 Priority sub-catchments for woody vegetation extent maintenance or improvement ................................ 24 Vulnerability of various sectors in Australia to climate change (note the high level of vulnerability of natural ecosystems) ....................................................................... 26 Traits of species that will be more or less resilient to climate change impacts .......................................... 26 Outline of priority threatened species for investment in site management ................................................ 26 Map of priority threatened species for investment in site management .................................................... 27 Conceptual illustrations of extinction thresholds for species in relation to habitat amount and of the ‘threshold zone’ for ecological function where a non-linear relationship exists ............ 27 Effects of climate change and how individuals and communities may respond ......................................... 27 Relationship between species richness and ecosystem function, highlighting the significance of the greater loss of biodiversity from richer and more productive soil types and ecosystems where the greatest levels of development and modification have occurred .............................................. 27 A range of thresholds identified for percentage decline in distribution of species or communities ............ 28 A range of thresholds identified in relation to area of occupancy and extent of occurrence...................... 28 Map of NSW showing the percentage of each bioregion protected in reserves ......................................... 29 Percentage reservation of each of the NSW bioregions ............................................................................ 29 Status and extent of regional vegetation communities ..............................................................................31 Status and extent of regional vegetation communities ............................................................................. 34 Priority invasive plant species for exclusion from the Namoi Catchment .................................................. 37 Priority invasive animal species for exclusion from the Namoi Catchment ................................................ 37 210 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 46: Figure 47: Figure 48: Figure 49: Figure 50: Figure 51: Figure 52: Figure 53: Figure 54: Figure 55: Figure 56: Figure 57: Figure 58: Figure 59: Figure 60: Figure 61: Figure 62: Figure 63: Figure 64: Figure 65: Figure 66: Figure 67: Figure 68: Figure 69: Figure 70: Figure 71: Figure 72: Figure 73: Figure 74: Figure 75: Figure 76: Figure 77: Figure 78: Figure 79: Figure 80: Figure 81: Figure 82: Figure 83: Figure 84: Figure 85: Figure 86: Figure 87: Figure 88: Figure 89: Figure 90: Figure 91: Figure 92: Figure 93: Figure 94: Figure 95: Figure 96: Figure 97: Priority emerging invasive plant species in the Namoi Catchment ............................................................ 37 Priority widespread invasive plant species in the Namoi Catchment ........................................................ 38 Priority widespread invasive animal species in the Namoi Catchment ...................................................... 38 Priorities for investment in conservation and improvement of extant vegetation ...................................... 38 Priorities for investment in native vegetation according to state-wide native vegetation management priorities.............................................................................................................................. 38 Conceptual model of the thresholds that can be applied to intact or degraded vegetation communities .. 38 Threshold effect regarding weed invasion ................................................................................................ 39 A range of thresholds associated with intact woodland communities (including coolibah – black box woodland, which is an important vegetation type in the Namoi Catchment)39 Key environmental components of a river ecosystem ............................................................................... 39 Components of a best practice framework for managing resilience in river ecosystems ........................... 40 Role of riparian vegetation as a habitat network and potential movement corridor ................................... 40 River condition across Australia, 2001 ...................................................................................................... 40 Interactions between living and non-living parts of a wetland ecosystem ..................................................41 Illustration of how subsurface groundwater-dependent ecosystems (SCDEs) are linked through ecotones (seen as the shaded areas) to other ecosystems.......................................... 43 Groundwater-dependent ecosystems in a hypothetical region.................................................................. 43 Conceptual model of lower River Murray deep-soil water-recharge mechanisms that are important for floodplain vegetation.............................................................................................. 43 Common river base-flow system in a typical catchment ........................................................................... 43 Relationship between vegetation and groundwater................................................................................... 44 Rooting depth of Australian vegetation species ........................................................................................ 44 Conceptual model from showing the factors influencing the biotic composition of subsurface groundwater-dependent ecosystems.................................................................................. 44 Functions of healthy soils ......................................................................................................................... 54 Conceptual model – contribution of soil elements to overall health; an arrow means that the ‘arrow from’ asset contributes to the ‘arrow to’ asset ........................................ 54 Median groundcover levels across the Namoi Catchment in 2011 ............................................................ 55 Priority land management units based on soil sodicity in light of climate change impacts ........................ 55 Conceptual model – contribution of water assets to the water theme; an arrow means that the ‘arrow from’ asset contributes to the ‘arrow to’ asset .........................................67 The water cycle ......... 69 Relationships between components of a groundwater system .................................................................. 70 The hydrologic cycle, including its effect on a catchment ......................................................................... 70 Water-balance summary diagram for the Namoi River – regulated water management area 2004–2005.. 70 Hudson footslope – recharge through weathered basalt hill slopes near the Liverpool Ranges................. 70 Flow chart of the hydrological sub-processes in the water-balance model.................................................71 Maximum historical drawdown pre 2011, maximum drawdown at each bore, Namoi Alluvium ...................71 Maximum historical drawdown pre 2011, maximum drawdown at each bore, Upper Namoi Alluvium ........71 Maximum historical drawdown pre 2011, maximum drawdown at each bore, Lower Namoi Alluvium ........71 Idealised drawdown for an aquifer system with multiple pumping bores ....................................................71 Histogram of change in groundwater levels in the Namoi Catchment between 1998 and 2008 ................ 72 Median annual change in groundwater levels in Namoi Catchment 1978–2008........................................ 72 Illustration of the anatomy of an aquifer system ....................................................................................... 72 Effects and manifestations of gravity-driven flow in a regionally unconfined drainage basin ..................... 73 Illustration of confined, unconfined and perched aquifer systems ............................................................. 73 Recharge from streambeds (a) with no hydraulic connection, and (b) with hydraulic connection.............. 73 Illustration of how water moves from groundwater, streams and soil to the atmosphere .......................... 73 How contamination occurs within aquifers ................................................................................................74 Illustration of how polluted groundwater affects a surface water stream ...................................................74 Summer and winter river flows in the Namoi ............................................................................................. 75 Monthly flow duration curve for the Namoi River at Narrabri .................................................................... 75 Stream valley interactions and impacts of modifications .......................................................................... 75 Surface water flow in the Namoi Catchment relative to threshold ............................................................ 76 Degree of risk to in-stream values for the Namoi Catchment .................................................................... 76 Relative level of water use for Murray-Darling Basin regions ..................................................................... 76 River and floodplain interactions............................................................................................................... 77 Confined, partly confined and lateral unconfined valley settings and their impact on river morphology .... 77 211 NAMOI CATCHMENT ACTION PLAN 2010–2020, SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENT 1 Figure 98: Figure 99: Figure 100: Figure 101: Figure 102: Figure103: Figure104: Figure 105: Figure 106: Figure 107: Figure 108: Figure 109: Figure 110: Figure 111: Figure 112: Figure 113: Figure 114: Figure 115. Figure116: Figure 117: Figure 118: Figure 119: Figure 120: Figure 121: Figure 122: Figure 123: Figure 124: Figure 125: Figure 126: Figure 127: Figure 128: Figure 129: Figure 130: Figure 131: Geomorphic and ecological functions at different flow levels ................................................................. 78 Processes within upland rivers ............................................................................................................... 78 Conceptual models of large river ecosystem function............................................................................. 78 Relationship between flow regime and ecological integrity .................................................................... 79 Interactions between surface water and groundwater. Schematic illustration of the interaction between surface water and groundwater: (a) neutral reach, (b) disconnected reach, (c) losing reach and (d) gaining reach .................................... 80 For a losing stream, flow is from the surface into the underlying sediments; the inset shows the pathways of heat transfer into the sediments by conduction (grey) and convection (black).............. 80 Gaining stream; high groundwater levels (winter) and/or low stream flow ............................................. 80 Groundwater extraction .......................................................................................................................... 80 Losing stream; high stream flow due to flooding or dam releases........................................................... 80 Disconnected stream; potential implications for streamflow .................................................................. 80 Water availability in the Namoi ................................................................................................................81 Illustration of groundwater use and resultant impact on river over time ...................................................81 Illustration of surface-groundwater connectivity in the Namoi .................................................................81 NSW river reaches and groundwater management areas .........................................................................81 Illustration of the relationships between degradation, connectivity and flow in rivers ............................ 82 Updated risk to in-stream value mapping for the Namoi Catchment (2013) ............................................ 83 Geomorphic condition mapping across the Namoi Catchment (2010) .................................................... 83 Direct and diffuse inputs into waterways in areas of pasture, with and without riparian vegetation........ 84 Illustration of the function of riparian buffer zones ................................................................................. 85 Riparian vegetation 86 Conceptual diagram of the effect of riparian vegetation on discharge .................................................... 86 Desirable and undesirable states in relation to rivers ............................................................................. 86 Factors that drive water quality and what CMAs can do about them....................................................... 87 The Five Capitals – a conceptual model of the five types of capital from which we derive the goods and services we need to improve the quality of our lives ............................................. 96 Conceptual model of the interaction between identified assets in human capital. An arrow from an asset illustrates a contribution to the ‘arrow to’ asset. A dotted line indicates a tenuous link. This conceptual model is proposed as a ‘conversation starter’ rather than a position of certainty .................................................................... 100 Conceptual model of social capital assets showing general loose and interconnected relationships between assets; assets identified contribute to the complexity of communities (another asset) .......... 104 Relationship between stress and subjective wellbeing .......................................................................... 111 Examining relationship between adaptive capacity, wellbeing and ability to work together.................... 111 Social-ecological sub-regions of the Namoi Catchment ......................................................................... 112 Social-ecological sub-regions identified for all NSW catchments ........................................................... 112 Template for sub-region social-ecological system conceptual models ................................................... 112 Conceptual model of the Tablelands social-ecological system ...............................................................113 Conceptual model of the Slopes social-ecological system. ....................................................................114 Conceptual model of the Plains social-ecological system ......................................................................115 List of Tables Table 1 Table 2 Table 3. Table 4: Table 5 Critical thresholds identified for the Namoi Catchment .................................................................................. 7 Data showing per cent remaining for woody vegetation extent by sub-catchment ........................................ 25 River likelihood classifications as determined by the river styles framework. ............................................... 83 Assets defined by expert workshops, and how they may fit into ‘capitals’ .................................................... 97 Summary levels of socio-economic indices for general resilience in the Namoi Catchment ........................116 Namoi Catchment Management Authority PO Box 546 Gunnedah NSW 2380 Telephone: 02 6742 9220 Fax: 02 6742 4022 www.namoi.cma.nsw.gov.au 212