Sam Fischer
Transcription
Sam Fischer
Sam Fischer Managing Director, Diageo Southeast Asia Sam Fischer Managing Director, Diageo Southeast Asia Nationality: Australian Role description: Appointed Managing Director, Southeast Asia in November 2009; member of the Asia Pacific Executive Committee Prior experience: Previously served as General Manager, Diageo Vietnam. Prior to joining Diageo, worked at Colgate Palmolive for 15 years, culminating in my role as General Manager Central Europe Favourite drink: Johnnie Walker Black Label on the Rocks 2 SEA: A Region of High Growth > GDP growing at 6-7% in 2010, forecast to grow 7% through to 2015 > GDP per capita doubled in almost every market from 2004 to 2010 Vietnam Thailand 2004 2010 Malaysia Indonesia GDP per capita (US$) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 > Over 50% of population under 30 years old > 7m new consumers every year Source: IMA Asia Forecast Book Q1 2011, Euromonitor. 10,000 3 Large TBA Market £4bn Others Vodka Other Brandy Cognac Scotch Locally prod Spirits Beer 2010 > Overall TBA : 150m 9L cases, £4bn Sales Value > Scotch category > 3x size the next category and 50% of Int’l Spirits > Diageo No.1 in Scotch Source: IWSR & Diageo Internal estimates 4 Diageo in Southeast Asia Others Vodka Other Brandy Cognac Scotch Locally prod Spirits Beer Diageo participation 2010 > # 1 International Spirits Company > # 1 International Spirits brand - Johnnie Walker Source: 2009 IWSR Total Retail Value and 2010 IWSR Volumes. 5 Participating in high growth categories 2010 - 2015 CAGR (%) 12% 9% 9% 8% Includes local Vodka in Vietnam growing at CAGR of 21% 7% 5% 3% F15 net sales (£m) Vodka Scotch Beer Others Cognac Other Brandy Locally Produced Spirits 81 399 3604 175 107 20 1155 Source: IWSR & Diageo Internal estimates. > F15 estimated TBA £5.5 billion > Overall 5 year CAGR 7% 6 Diageo strength in SEA Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Brand Equity Existing Scale Established Organisations Great momentum. . . and confident this will continue 7 Vietnam: attractive demographics Young, increasingly wealthy population Population 87 million < 30 years old 52% New LDA / year 1.8 million Real GDP growth 8% (avg annual growth to 2015) GDP per Capita US$1,190 (CAGR to 2015: +10%) Sources: Euromonitor International from national statistics, IMA Asia Forecast Book Q1 2011. 8 Established presence in Vietnam. . . > Domestic route to market through Diageo Vietnam > Strong brands supported by mentoring program > Great relationship with trade > Industry leading Chinese New Year gifting portfolio 9 . . .driving great results > Johnnie Walker No. 1 International Spirits; Smirnoff No. 1 International Vodka > Over 800,000 gift boxes delivered during Chinese New Year, 80% growth vs last year > No. 1 sales team amongst Consumer Packaged Goods Companies > High double-digit top line growth Source: IWSR & AC Nielsen. 10 Thailand: growing urban population Increasingly modern & wealthy urban population Population 65 million < 30 years old 43% New LDA / year 1.0 million Real GDP growth 5% (avg annual growth to 2015) GDP per Capita US$4,986 (CAGR to 2015: +13%) Sources: Euromonitor International from national statistics, IMA Asia Forecast Book Q1 2011. 11 Transformational Marketing in Thailand > Diageo-managed JV with MH > Premiumisation in On-Premise focuses on fantastic brand experiences > World-class owned media - total database approximately 30% of universe > Winning in gifting through at scale category execution in modern retail channel 12 Multi-year track record continues > Strong performance in last 4 years > Scotch share up 13ppts since 2007 > Deluxe category decline halted by JW Black in F11 > Double-digit top-line growth in H1 this year Source: Share from AC Nielsen. 13 Strong share performance in Thailand Scotch consistently gaining share in Thailand Total Scotch Share 60 Diageo 50 Main Competitor 40 30 F 07 Source: Share from AC Nielsen. F08 F09 F10 H1 F11 14 Malaysia: relatively wealthy population Young population, wealth levels already relatively high Population 29 million < 30 years old 58% New LDA / year 0.5 million Real GDP growth 5% (avg annual growth to 2015) GDP per Capita US$8,004 (CAGR to 2015: +10%) Sources: Euromonitor International from national statistics, IMA Asia Forecast Book Q1 2011. 15 Activation at Scale in Malaysia > Strong partnerships with MH and Asia Pacific Breweries > World class beer & spirits brand ranges > Consumer programs at scale > Festive activation > Commercial execution & strategic outlet partnerships 16 Leadership in Beer, momentum in Spirits > 9 consecutive years of share gains in Beer, strengthens No. 1 position > Double-digit top-line growth for Johnnie Walker in H1 Source: Share from CMBB (Confederation of Malaysian Brewers Berhad). 17 Indonesia: highly populous Large population, significant potential Population 232 million < 30 years old 53% New LDA / year 4.1 million Real GDP growth 7% (avg annual growth to 2015) GDP per Capita US$3,019 (CAGR to 2015: +19%) Sources: Euromonitor International from national statistics, IMA Asia Forecast Book Q1 2011. 18 Strong Partnerships in Indonesia. . . > Successful 40 years distribution partnership with PT Dima > Successful 35 years brewing partnership with MBI > World class execution of Guinness > Strong innovation agenda led by proven international brands 19 . . .delivering consistent share growth > Indonesia 6th biggest market for Guinness globally > Gained 3ppts share over the past 3 years > Successful launch of Smirnoff Ice driving total TM > Sales growth last 5 years 18% CAGR Source: Share from GIMMI (Malt Beverage Industry Body in Indonesia). 20 Winning in South East Asia > Leverage category-leading positions to grow share > Premiumisation – supported by leading edge marketing > Best in class Brand innovations > Advantaged routes to market, partnerships as leverage 21 Track record of winning share Diageo International Spirits share in SEA 21% 16% 2005 2010 … confident this will continue Source: Estimates base on IWSR. 22 To sum up. . . Strong TBA Market > £4bn opportunity – we participate at scale in key markets Attractive demographics > Young & increasingly wealthy population Leading brand positions and track record > Strong brand equities > Strong organisations > Advantaged routes to markets, strong partnerships > Focus on premiumisation > Winning share across markets 23 Cautionary statement concerning forward-looking statements This presentation contains ‘forward-looking’ statements. These forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate only to historical or current facts. In particular, forward-looking statements include all statements that express forecasts, expectations, plans, outlook and projections with respect to future matters, including trends in results of operations, margins, growth rates, overall market trends, the impact of interest or exchange rates, the availability or cost of financing to Diageo, anticipated cost savings or synergies, the completion of Diageo's strategic transactions and restructuring programmes, whether and when any transaction may be eps accretive or economic profit positive and its anticipated impact on margins, anticipated tax rates, expected cash payments, outcomes of litigation, anticipated deficit reductions in relation to pension schemes and general economic conditions. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, including factors that are outside Diageo's control. These factors include, but are not limited to: • global and regional economic downturns; • increased competitive product and pricing pressures and unanticipated actions by competitors that could impact Diageo’s market share, increase expenses and hinder growth potential; • the effects of Diageo’s strategic focus on premium drinks, the effects of business combinations, partnerships, acquisitions or disposals, existing or future, and the ability to realise expected synergies and/or costs savings; • Diageo’s ability to complete existing or future business combinations, restructuring programmes, acquisitions and disposals; • legal and regulatory developments, including changes in regulations regarding production, product liability, distribution, importation, labelling, packaging, consumption or advertising; changes in tax law, rates or requirements (including with respect to the impact of excise tax increases) or accounting standards; and changes in environmental laws, health regulations and the laws governing labour and pensions; • developments in any litigation or other similar proceedings (including with tax, customs and other regulatory authorities) directed at the drinks and spirits industry generally or at Diageo in particular, or the impact of a product recall or product liability claim on Diageo’s profitability or reputation; • developments in the Colombian litigation, Turkish customs litigation, SEC investigation, Korean customs litigation or any similar proceedings; • changes in consumer preferences and tastes, demographic trends or perception about health related issues, or contamination, counterfeiting or other circumstances which could harm the integrity or sales of Diageo’s brands; • changes in the cost or supply of raw materials, labour, energy and/or water; • changes in political or economic conditions in countries and markets in which Diageo operates, including changes in levels of consumer spending, failure of customer, supplier and financial counterparties or imposition of import, investment or currency restrictions; • levels of marketing, promotional and innovation expenditure by Diageo and its competitors; • renewal of supply, distribution, manufacturing or licence agreements (or related rights) and licenses on favourable terms when they expire; • termination of existing distribution or licence manufacturing rights on agency brands; • disruption to production facilities or business service centres, and systems change programmes, existing or future, and the ability to derive expected benefits from such programmes; • technological developments that may affect the distribution of products or impede Diageo’s ability to protect its intellectual property rights; and • changes in financial and equity markets, including significant interest rate and foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations and changes in the cost of capital, which may reduce or eliminate Diageo’s access to or increase the cost of financing or which may affect Diageo’s financial results and movements to the value of Diageo’s pensions funds. All oral and written forward-looking statements made on or after the date of this presentation and attributable to Diageo are expressly qualified in their entirety by the above factors and the ‘Risk factors’ contained in the Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended 30 June 2010 filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Any forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of Diageo speak only as of the date they are made. Diageo does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect any changes in Diageo's expectations with regard thereto or any changes in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. The reader should, however, consult any additional disclosures that Diageo may make in any documents which it publishes and/or files with the SEC. All readers, wherever located, should take note of these disclosures. This document includes names of Diageo's products, which constitute trademarks or trade names which Diageo owns, or which others own and license to Diageo for use. All rights reserved. © Diageo plc 2011. The information in this presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or an invitation to buy shares in Diageo plc or an invitation or inducement to engage in any other investment activities. This presentation includes information about Diageo’s target debt rating. A security rating is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities and may be subject to revision or withdrawal at any time by the assigning rating organisation. Each rating should be evaluated independently of any other rating. Past performance cannot be relied upon as a guide to future performance. The contents of the company’s website (www.diageo.com) should not be considered to form a part of or be incorporated into this presentation. 24