Analyst Call – The Business Year 2014

Transcription

Analyst Call – The Business Year 2014
Berlin, 9 March 2015
Udo Giegerich (CFO), 50Hertz Transmission GmbH
Agenda
Business in 2014
Developments in Energy Market 2014
Corporate Figures 2014
Outlook 2015
9 March 2015 – Analyst Call 2014 – Udo Giegerich (CFO) 50Hertz Transmission GmbH
2 / 37
Business Environment in 2014
1. Major change in the energy sector, related with high uncertainties for all participants
2. Investments on a high level record and a Result 2014 affected by operative and
regulatory one-off effects
3. Politics: Government on the right track with the RES-reform and first proposals to the
market design, but Grid expansion in discussion in some Federal States
 Caution: Grid expansion plays the key role for the „Energiewende“. This industry
historic project must not be allowed to fail due to regional interest.
4. Intensification of cooperation and collaboration with numerous participants from
politics, civil society and the energy sector due to the fundamental change of the system
3 / 37
Grid Expansion Projects 2014
15
6
7
14
12
3
17
10
11
13
5
9
1
16
2
4
1
380-kV-grid connection substation Förderstedt
12 km
2
380-kV-Line Bärwalde – Schmölln
46 km
3
Grid connection substation Parchim/Süd
4
South-West interconnector 2 (SWIC 2) Vieselbach-Altenfeld
5
New construction substation Wolmirstedt
6
Conncection Offshore-Wind park (OWP) Baltic 2
~ 135 km
7
Connection OWPs Wikinger und Arkona-Becken South-East
~ 100 km
8
SWIC 3 Altenfeld – Redwitz (to border Thü/Bay)
~ 26 km
9
3rd Interconnector to Poland (to border GER/POL)
~ 10 km
10
380-kV-Northern Ring Berlin
~ 80 km
11
Uckermark-Line Neuenhagen – Vierraden – Bertikow
12
Bertikow – Pasewalk
13
Wolmirstedt – Perleberg
~ 106 km
14
Offshore connections Baltic Sea
~ 100 km
15
Kriegers Flak Combined Grid Solution
16
Grid connection substation Jessen/Nord
~ 3 km
17
Grid connection substation Putlitz/Süd
~ 5 km
Completion in 2014
Under construction
Approval procedure
8
1 km
57 km
6 km
~ 120 km
~ 30 km
~ 15 km
~ 60 km
~ 200 km
~ 500 km
Existing 50Hertz grid
Planning/ approval stage
HVDC-/ DC-connection
Under construction
Switching stations
In operation
Switching stations planned/
under construction
Grid other companies
Other companies
Conventional power plant (lignitefired, coal-fired or gas turbine
power plant), pumped storage
plant, onshore/ offshore wind park
Planned/
X
In operation
X
Under construction
X
Approval procedure
under construction
4 / 37
Milestones For 50Hertz in 2014
Further Developments of the Grid Infrastructure
•
•
•
Commissioning 380-kVLine Bärwalde –
Schmölln, construction of
the new line while old line
in operation, no problems
with acceptance.
Planning permission for
Uckermark-Line.
2nd NEP 2014 confirmed,
requirement of the
eastern DC-korridor.
•
•
•
•
•
Reduction of the total
length of lines in spite of
increasing grid expansion
due to efficiency measures
on the right points (e.g.
replacement of 220kV by
380kV-lines).
Commissioning substation
Förderstedt.
Phaseshifter Agreement
with the Polish TSO (PSE).
Project offshore wind
park cluster Westlich
Adlergrund, has started,
the biggest project in
corporate history, total
invest volume of € 1.5 bn.
Memorandum of Understanding to evaluate a
new high voltage
interconnector – Hansa
PowerBridge – between
Sweden and Germany.
5
5 / 37
Offshore Grid-Projects
2011: Commissioning of Baltic 1 (48 MW)
Cable routes (schematically)
Grid Connection in operation
Grid Connection under construction
Grid Connection in approval procedure
2012: Start of construction on Baltic 2
OWP in operation
OWP under construction
OWP approved
Offshore wind park cluster
2014: Hand-over to wind farm operators
in the Westlich Adlergrund region;
OWP Arkonabecken Südost (400 MW)
and Wikinger (400 MW)
first cables ordered
2015: Connection of Baltic 2 (288 MW)
to the grid shortly before completion
Potential of offshore wind power in the
Baltic Sea: approx. 5,000 MW
Ordering cables for Offshore-Cluster „Westlich Adlergrund“ about € 730m highest contract volume at 50Hertz
6 / 37
Grid Development And Storage
Maximum available capacity of water
storage in 2011 (in TWh)
DE
(0,04 TWh)
CH
(9 TWh)
AUT
(3 TWh)
85,0
.85,0
100
80
60
34,0
.34,0
40
9,0
.9,0
20
NOR
SWE
CH
3,0
.3,0
0,04
AUT
DE
Yearly surpluses in Germany of supplied RE
60000
Surplus due to fluctuating inflow
40000
2012
2030
2050
2020
2040
20000
MW 0
-20000
-40000
Essential dispatchable power
Hours per year
generation
-60000
1
1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001
Source: World Energy Council, 2012
SWE
(34 TWh)
Maximum available storage capacity of water reservoirs in 2011
NOR
(85 TWh)
Study of World Energy Council proves high economic value between Germany
and Nordic countries (between 7 and 12 GW!)
7 / 37
Planned Interconnectors (I): Combined Grid Solution
Between Germany And Denmark
- The EU supported Combined Grid
Solution (CGS) connects the OffshoreWind parks Baltic 2 (GER) and Kriegers
Flak (DK) with the german-danish
interconnector.
- Joint feasibility study shows advantages
of CGS from the technical point of view as
well as from the cost perspective compared
to a „normal“ grid connection of Baltic 2.
- 13th January 2015: Cooperation
agreement about a technical concept of
the interconnector between Energinet.dk
and 50Hertz. Begin of the tender in 2015.
8 / 37
Planned Interconnectors (II): Hansa PowerBridge
Between Germany And Sweden
- Access for 50Hertz to Swedish pump
storages – access for Svenska Kraftnät to
cheaper German renewable energy
- Long term strategy: Extension of German
domestic DC-connections for optimal use of
photovoltaic, wind and water energy.
- Memorandum of Understanding and
Feasibility Study 2014 show promising
business case with high economic value for
Sweden, Germany and Europe.
9 / 37
Agenda
Business in 2014
Outlook 2015
10 / 37
Development of RES in The 50Hertz Area
Installed Capacity
in GW
Sonstige EE
Biomasse
Wind
Photovoltaik
30
25
23.6
2012
2013
24.9
18.7
20
15
22.0
14.4
15.5
2009
2010
11.3
10
5
0
Feed-In Energy
in TWh
2008
2011
50
40
30
35.0
22.8
23.7
24.8
2008
2009
2010
36.7
2014*
40
28.2
20
10
0
2011
2012
2013
2014*
Successful development in the 50Hertz grid area. Electricity production from renewable
energies covers approx. 42% (40 TWh) of electricity consumption.
* Preliminary figures as of 31/12/14; Source: 50Hertz Transmission GmbH
11 / 37
Grid Load in The 50Hertz Area
Asynchronous line load > 5h/a
2009
____
____
2014
Load ≤ 50%
50% < Load < 70%
____
____
Load ≥ 70%
No Values
Grid load increases dramatically due to the changes in energy production.
12 / 37
System Security: Interventions in Grids And Markets
Volumes and costs of Redispatch (§ 13.1 EnWG)
Volume
in GWh
Share of conv.
Feed-In Energy1
5.000
6,00%
4.500
5,00%
4.000
Costs
in m€
140
120
100
3.500
4,00%
3.000
80
2.500
3,00%
60
2.000
2,00%
1.500
1.000
40
1,00%
20
0,00%
0
500
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2
High yearly costs for redispatch could decrease
significantly by grid expansion.
1
2
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
20142
TenneT Redispatch in Richtung 50Hertz
Redispatch international
Redispatch national Netzgebiet 50Hertz
Feed-in energy of conventional energy in the 50Hertz area
Preliminary Figures
13 / 37
System Security: Interventions in Grids And Markets
Volumes and costs of shutdown wind energy (§ 13.2 EnWG / § 14 EEG)
Volume
in GWh
500
Share of RE
Feed-In Energy1
1,00%
Costs
in m€
30
450
400
0,80%
350
25
20
300
0,60%
250
15
200
0,40%
10
150
100
0,20%
5
50
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2
0,00%
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2
Shutdown of supplied wind energy do not play an important role, so far.
1
2
Feed-in energy of renewable energy in the 50Hertz area
Preliminary Figures
14 / 37
Import/ Export at The Border of The 50Hertz Zone
Denmark
Poland
Exports:
41,873 GWh
Exports in GWh
Imports:
11,460 GWh
Imports in GWh
____________________________________
Net export:
30,413 GWh
Net export (balance)
Czech Republic
North-East Germany – An important power export region
15 / 37
Agenda
Business in 2014
Outlook 2015
16 / 37
Investments At Record High Level
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
700
600
38
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
500
Maintenance
37
400
154
300
37
100
45
40
114
3
38
46
107
43
131
110
248
114
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
72
105
535
39
51
200
0
308
Offshore
264
144
0
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Onshore
Offshore
Maintenance
Plan
Onshore
High investments lead to record high level.
17 / 37
Further Heavily Increased Capex
Capex 2014: 572 m€
Drivers
[+42.3% to 2013]
Non electrical
investments
Replacements
Onshore 264 m€
Driven by
internal
consumption
[+6.5% to 2013]
2%
3%
RES
integration
5%
90%
308
264
(46.1%)
(53.9%)
Offshore 308 m€
[+100.0% to 2013]
Planned Capex realised due to increasing onshore-investments on a high level
as well as doubling offshore-investments.
18 / 37
Net Result Adjusted For One-Offs
IFRS Eurogrid GmbH, 50Hertz Transmission GmbH and 50Hertz Offshore GmbH consolidated
in m€
23
18
-5
161
125
Adjusted Result
2014
Regulatory
Effects
Provisions
(esp. Taxes)
Operative
One-Off Effects
Net Result
2014
One-off effects increase the net result 2014.
19 / 37
Profit And Loss
2014
2013
∆
Total revenues
8,569
8,556
0.2%
Neutral business
7,593
7,664
-0.9%
976
892
9.4%
46
37
24.3%
Revenues and incomes
1,022
929
10.0%
Energy and material costs
-349
-393
-11.2%
-80
-68
17.7%
-234
-165
41.8%
EBITDA
359
303
18.5%
Depreciation
-78
-75
4.0%
Financial result
-27
1
n.a.
Taxes
-93
-63
47.6%
Net result
161
166
-3.0%
in m€
Revenues from grid business
Other operating income
Personnel costs
Other costs
20 / 37
Balance Sheet
Assets
Fixed assets
Current assets
Liquid assets
in m€
Liabilities
Equity
Provisions
Longterm debt
Shortterm debt
(Net) regulatory liabilities
Equity ratio (=Equity/Total assets)
Gearing (=Net debt/Equity)
Gearing w/o RES and other trustee business
2014
2,744
841
565
4,150
2013
2,227
737
319
3,283
∆
23.2%
14.1%
77.1%
26.4%
1,169
233
571
1,780
397
4,150
1,107
155
523
1,190
308
3,283
5.6%
50.3%
9.2%
49.6%
28.9%
26.4%
28%
1%
60%
34%
18%
25%
-6
-18
35
21 / 37
Cash Flow Statement
2014
2013
Net result IFRS
161
166
Change of non-cash items
709
842
Operating Cash Flow (FFO)
870
1,008
89
175
thereof tax payments
-131
-58
Investment Cash Flow
-577
-407
thereof Capex
-572
-402
Free Cash Flow
293
601
565
536
-47
-276
-97
-76
Change in cash & cash equivalents
246
325
Adjusted Operating Cash Flow
342
350
in m€
thereof change of regulatory liabilities
thereof RES and other trustee cash flows
Cash Flow from financing activities
thereof dividend payments
22 / 37
Liquidity
Eurogrid GmbH, 50Hertz Transmission GmbH, 50Hertz Offshore GmbH
in m€
700
575
565
600
500
400
319
300
200
238
100
0
-100
-200
-45
-134
12.2013
03.2014
06.2014
TOTAL (incl. RES and other trustee business)
09.2014
RES
12.2014
Core business
Strong catch up effect in RES-business overlays the decreasing core-liquidity.
23 / 37
Funding
Issuer
Eurogrid GmbH
Guarantors
50Hertz Transmission GmbH
50Hertz Offshore GmbH
Funding
Terms and Conditions
2.5 bn Euro Medium Term
Note Programme (EMTN)
EUR Bond 500 m€
Coupon
Maturity
Maturity Date
Joint Bookrunners
3.875%
10Y
Oct 2020
BNP Paribas, Dexia, ING and RBS
Privately Placed Bond 50 m€
Coupon
Maturity
Maturity Date
3.000%
30Y
Dec 2044
Revolving Credit Facility 350 m€
Participation of 11 (core) banks:
Commerzbank, BNP Paribas, KBC, HSBC, ING, Helaba, Morgan
Stanley, Rabobank, RBS, IL Brandenburg, IB Berlin
Duration until 06/2016
Cash Management Line 150 m€
Overdraft facility with cash management bank BNP Paribas
Duration until further notice
24 / 37
Key Figures*
2014
2013
Goal
FFO interest cover
13.5
10.6
> 3%
Net debt / Regulatory asset base
2%
11%
686%
68%
0.4
0.2
478%
37%
320
168
2,709
2,215
Net debt
47
249
RCF
223
92
Capex
571
405
Gross interest expense
25.6
18
Moody’s Rating
Baa1
Baa1
Outlook
stable
stable
FFO / Net debt
RCF / Capex
RCF / Net debt
FFO
Regulatory asset base
> 12%
> 8%
Moody‘s repeatedly confirmed the stable Baa1 rating.
* Figures on IFRS data basis and in approach to calculation scheme of Moody’s Investors Service
25 / 37
Agenda
Business in 2014
Outlook 2015
26 / 37
Financial Outlook 2015
• Adjusted net income on 2014 level
• No funding need for RES expected
• Another substantial increase in Capex
• Requirement for long-term funding of € 1bn
27 / 37
Business Outlook 2015
• Further development of the RE-act and RE-levy
• Market design and capacity markets
• Grid expansion, DC lines and price zone debate
• Grid tariffs – strong regional differences
28 / 37
„It‘s Coming!“ – Solar Eclipse on 20th March 2015
•
First, decrease of PV-production by ca. 12 GW, than increase
by ca. 19 GW in Germany all within
•
The fully traded PV-produced energy have to be totally
compensated by many flexible generation plants simultaneously
(-> providing more control energy)
•
Close coordination between TSOs in Germany and Europe
30
25
Cloudless w/o SE
20
Cloudless with SE
19 GW
15
10
12 GW
5
19:00
18:15
17:30
16:45
16:00
15:15
14:30
13:45
13:00
12:15
11:30
10:45
10:00
09:15
08:30
07:45
07:00
06:15
05:30
04:45
0
04:00
PV- production in GW
A big challenge in sunny weather:
TSOs realize market-orientated approach to control this situation
29 / 37
Thank you very much for your kind attention!
Udo Giegerich (CFO)
Robert Weigert (Head of Treasury)
50Hertz Transmission GmbH
Eurogrid GmbH
Eichenstraße 3A
Eichenstraße 3A
12435 Berlin
12435 Berlin
030 - 5150 - 2400
030 - 5150 - 3201
[email protected]
[email protected]
www.50hertz.com
www.eurogrid.com
Back up
Further Development of The RE-Act And RE-Levy
1. Political goal to reduce costs of RE-expansion was successful
2. Further development of efficiency potentials expected by using tendering models –
Tenders in other parts of the world show successful approach
3. Relief of the RES balance account by shifting from PV-expansion to onshore wind
expansion
4. RES account: Less than forecasted PV-expansion in 2014, after years of funding by the TSOs
positive development in 2015
RE-levy will be relatively constant from today‘s perspective
32 / 37
Green Paper „An Electricity Market for Germany's
Energy Transition“
Requirements of the Green Paper of the Federal
Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
Requirements of
50Hertz
Optimize grid expansion
Presentation of
Green Paper
Public consultation
Maintain standardized price zone
Oct
2014
Mar
2015
Reliable grid operation
Strengthen balancing group responsibility
Advance spot- and balancing power markets
Presentation of
White Paper with
specific measures
May
2015
Optimize grid tariffs
Check capacity mechanisms
Public consultation
Intensify european cooperation
§
Sept
2015
Legislative
Process
We highly appreciate and support the statements and
advancement concepts in the Green Paper
33 / 37
Grid Expansion, DC-Connections
and Price Zone Debate
1. Integration of renewable energies:
Extreme expansion in the North of
Germany, the supplied energy can not
be consumed locally
2. System Security: Today the system is
at the limit. In future the system will be
strained more and more
3. Access for all Federal States to low
energy prices: If Germany can not
guarantuee that the bottleneck will be
only temporary, there will be a realistic
threat of a two price zone area
Die Darstellung der Neubauprojekte im Netzentwicklungsplan zeigt die Anfangs- und Endpunkte, aber keine
konkreten Trassenverläufe. Diese werden erst in nachgelagerten Genehmigungsverfahren festgelegt.
34 / 37
Examined Price Zone Model For The Year 2023
Production in 2023
Basis: NEP Scenario B2023; NTC 12,5 GW
220
RE-production TWh
Conventional
Production
Temporarily
inner-german
bottleneck
255
TWh
320
TWh
Produced
Energy
Electrical
Demand
NTC of
NTC
12,5 GW
RE-Prodcution 70
Conventional
75
Production
Produced
Energy
250
TWh
Electrical
Demand
Assumption as discussed scientifically*:
- If grid expansion does not work,
Germany would be splitted into two
Energy-Trading Market Areas due to
inner-german bottleneck between North
and South. There would be two prices at
the energy stock exchange
- Energy trading between North and
South would be limited. There would
be implemented a Net Transfer Capacity
(NTC)
- Therefore the energy production in
Northern Germany would be reduced.
The transmission need from North to
South would decrease
- To decrease the transmission need in a
way that no excessiv redispatch
measures would be necessary, NTC
would have to be fixed at 10-15 GW
* ENTSO-e Bidding-Zone-Studie, APG-Studie 2012, Bettzüge 2014
35 / 37
Impact of an Inner-German Price Zone Split
to the
in Southern Germany
in Northern Germany
Increasing trading prices
(+6 Euro/MWh) by a lack of
production capacity and expensive
technologies (Gas, Water, PV etc.)
Slight decreasing trading prices,
due to a surplus of cheap energy
(Wind, Lignite). Conventional, KWK
etc. will be operate rarer
energy prices
Increasing energy production costs in North und South by
inefficiencies, ca. € 600m a year
Capacity
instruments
Significant higher capacity prices
because capacity deficits require
new power plants (+2-3 Euro/MWh)
System
Services
Market split of different types of control energy and system services lead to
higher prices in North and South
RES
Costs for RE-support increase in North and South because of
decreasing trading prices which reduce profits from wind production
Lower capacity prices due to a
capacity surplus
36 / 37
Strong Different Grid Tariffs in Germany
Reasons for different Grid Tariffs:
Different RE-production density, investment
cycles, population and industry density
Basic problem: Energiewende = pangerman project BUT high disadvantage of
regions which provide main contribution to
the Energiewende.
Possible solutions:
Continuation
of current
grid tariff system
Middle course:
Approach of
regional differences
Unified
grid tariffs
37 / 37

Analyst Call – The Business Year 2014

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