Revenues - Axel Springer

Berenberg TMT Conference 2016
Zurich, June 1, 2016
Dr Julian Deutz, CFO
Daniel Fard-Yazdani, Co-Head of Investor Relations
Disclaimer
This document, which has been issued by Axel Springer SE (the "Company"), comprises the written
materials/slides for a presentation of the management.
Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information and facts stated herein are accurate
and that the opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reasonable no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is given by or on behalf of the Company, any of its directors, or any other person as to the
accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document and no liability is accepted
for any such information or opinions.
This document contains forward looking statements which involves risks and uncertainties. These forward
looking statements speak only as of the date of this document and are based on numerous assumptions which
may or may not prove to be correct. The actual performance and results of the business of the Company could
differ materially from the performance and results discussed in this document.
The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements or other
information contained herein whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
This document does not constitute or form any part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of
any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares in the Company, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its
distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision in relation
thereto.
2
Axel Springer at a Glance
Highlights
 One of the leading digital
publishers in Europe with unique
media brands
 Successful transformation with
72%1) of EBITDA from digital
activities
 Organic growth supported by
active M&A with strong track
record
 High dividend yield
1) Based
3
EBITDA by segment1)2)
Revenues by segment1)
2%
27%
27%
14%
Classified Ad Models
Paid Models
Marketing Models
27%
60%
Services / Holding
44%
Financials
2015
Outlook 2016
Revenues in €m
3,294.9
Low single-digit % increase
EBITDA in €m
559.0
Low to mid single-digit % increase
EBITDA-margin
17.0%
EPS (adj.) in €
2.22
DPS (FY 2015) in €
1.80
on Q1/2016 figures. 2) Negative EBITDA S/H allocated proportionally to operative segments.
Mid to high single-digit % increase
Digital transformation along core areas of
expertise to become the leading digital publisher
Classified Ad Models
&
For all segments: main activities only.
4
Paid Models
Marketing Models
Axel Springer with significant reach and traffic
figures across all assets
200 million unique users
1.4 billion
visits
1.1 billion
video views
395k
paid digital
subs
Unique users Q1/16, comScore and own calculations, monthly average. Visits Q1/16, comScore and own
calculations, monthly average. Video views, most recent company data available (last three months), monthly
average. Paying digital subscribers April 2016, BILD and WELT.
5
85% of advertising revenues and 72% of EBITDA
earned in digital in Q1/16
Revenues
Advertising Revenues
15%
28%
33%
67%
Digital share.
6
Non-digital share.
EBITDA
85%
72%
Start into the year as expected – guidance for the
full year confirmed
in €m
Q1/16
Q1/15
yoy
Revenues
783.4
780.6
0.4%
Advertising
527.1
483.3
9.1%
Circulation
154.5
174.4
-11.4%
Other
101.8
122.9
-17.2%
EBITDA
125.9
119.8
5.2%
Margin
16.1%
15.3%
0.7pp
Restructuring Exp.
6.4
12.8
-6.4
Launch Costs
12.3
4.8
7.5
144.7
137.4
5.3%
18.5%
17.6%
0.9pp
EBITDA ex. Restr./LC
Margin
7
 Q1/16 significantly impacted by
consolidation effects
 Revenues adjusted for cons. effects
+3.7% (ad revenues +5.9%, circulation
revenues -3.5%, other revenues +5.0%)
 Cost development (-1.7%, +3.1% adj. for
cons. effects) below revenue increase
 EBITDA up 5.2% (adj. for cons. effects
+3.2%) due to continued growth in
classifieds, lower restructuring costs and
despite investments for future growth
Adjusted eps up 18.6% yoy – guidance for FY 16
mid to high single-digit growth
in €m
Q1/16
Q1/15
Net income
209.4
43.0 >100%
Non-recurring effects
-171.8
4.2
−
21.6
17.3
24.8%
6.1
-6.9
−
Effects of purchase price allocations
Taxes attributable to these effects
Adjusted net income
Thereof attributable to non-controlling interests
Adjusted net income attributable to shareholders of Axel Springer SE
65.3
8.6
yoy
57.6 13.3%
13.7
-37.7%
56.7
43.9 29.3%
0.53
0.44 18.6%
in €
1)
Adjusted eps
1)
8
Based on weighted average number of shares outstanding in Q1/16: 107.9m (Q1/15: 98.9m).
Dividend yield of 3.6%1), dividend volume up to
new record high of €194m
Free cash flow in €m
66.4
Dividend
(€/share)
70.9
Dividend volume in €m
0.22 0.40 0.48 0.57 1.17 1.33 1.47 1.47 1.60 1.70 1.70 1.80 1.80 1.80
194
168 168
178 178
157
122
131 131
107
37
45
52
22
Q1/15
1)
9
Based on share price on day prior to AGM.
Q1/16
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Leverage of 1.5x post dividend payment and cash
inflow from FUNKE vendor loan
1)
2)
Net financial debt of €881m as of April 2016 (leverage 1.5x )
Early repayment of FUNKE vendor loan
 Vendor loan granted in April 2014
in connection with sale of regional
newspapers and magazines


1)
Initial terms
Nominal value of €241m, 5% yearly
capitalized interest, repayment over a
two-year period starting 2018
Agreement with FUNKE to receive
early repayment
€260.3m cash payment received end of
April 2016
Excl. pension liabilities.
10
2)
Future cash flows
Inflows

Strong free cash flow generation

Payment of €55m received in January 2016
from sale of stake in Doğan TV. Further
sale/payments of €171m expected in 2020/
2022.
Outflows

Based on Bloomberg EBITDA consensus for 2016.
Put-Call-Options following acquisitions,
volume expected to be ~€60m for 2016
Priorities 2016
We want to…
11
1
… further grow in classifieds
2
… invest for further growth in Business Insider,
upday, Retale
3
… stabilize paid models segment ex growth
investments for Business Insider/upday
Outlook 2016
Axel Springer
Group
Revenues Low single-digit % growth
12
EBITDA
Low to mid single-digit % growth
eps (adj.)
Mid to high single-digit % growth
Classified Ad
Models
Paid
Models
Marketing
Models
Revenues
Low double-digit %
growth
Mid single-digit %
decline
Mid single-digit %
growth
Significant
decline
EBITDA
Low double-digit %
growth
Mid to high singledigit % decline
On prior-year
level
Mid single-digit %
decline
Services/
Holding
Highlights Classified Ad Models
Classified Ad Models segment at a Glance
Highlights
 Portfolio of market leading
classified ad models
 Digital classifieds clear
beneficiary of structural shift from
print to online
 Strong market positions yielding
high margins
Classified Ad Models
Jobs
Real Estate
 #1 in Germany, Belgium
 #1 in France
 #1 in Belgium
 #1 in UK
 #2 in Germany
 #1 in Ireland, South
Africa
Financials
14
&
Cars
 #1/2 in France
Local
 #1 in Germany
Generalist
 #1 in Israel
Vacation Rental
 #1 in Netherlands
and Belgium
2015
Outlook 2016
Revenues in €m
753.1
Low double-digit % increase
EBITDA in €m
305.0
Low double-digit % increase
EBITDA margin
40.5%
Ownership of Classifieds back to 100% –
General Atlantic 8.3% group shareholder
Before December 8, 2014
Since December 8, 2014
As of December 9, 2015
Axel Springer
Axel Springer
Axel Springer
Classified
Ad Models
Paid
Models
Marketing
Models
GA share
30%
15
Classified
Ad Models
Paid
Models
Marketing
Models
Classified
Ad Models
GA share
15%
Paid
Models
GA share 8.3%
December 8, 2014
December 9, 2015
Acquisition of 15%-stake for €446m
in cash
Acquisition of remaining 15%-stake for 9.0m
Axel Springer SE shares
Marketing
Models
StepStone: Significant lead over competitors
Company profile
 #1 job portals in Germany, UK and other
countries
 High growth driven by operational excellence
and market share gains
 Several bolt-on acquisitions enabling knowhow transfer and best practice exchange
 Relevance of direct search in Germany
limited
Applications per job ad
in Germany; 2013 - 20151)
2014
2015
2013
2014
2012
2013
6.5
Competitor
6.7
6.0
Competitor
5.9
5.1
x3.1
3.5
x5.0
x5.1
x4.7
3.7
3.3
2.4
x5.3
x7.8
2.2
x7.1
3.3
Competitor
1)
Source: TNS Infratest
16
x2.7
x2.8
x2.6
x3.8
x3.2
4.6
Competitor
17.4
18.8
15.6
SeLoger revenue growth driven by strong
ARPA development
Company profile
 #1 specialist real estate portal in France
 Penetration rate with real estate agents
>80%
 Excellent competitive position and
beneficiary from print to online shift
 Continued revenue growth driven by
strong ARPA development
Monthly ARPA depending on regions (EUR)
Province
616
Total (excl. verticals)
600
576
506 515
500
464 468 470
406
400
373
338
302
300
265
200
100
197
129
213
256
321
271
500
393
351
339
499
455
419
376
323
271
411
439
378
351
301
240
422
648
554 565
Total (incl. verticals)
247
17
701
Paris area
700
430
396
368
324
291
221
193
151
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Merger of Immowelt & Immonet in 2015 creates a
strong N°2 in German online real estate
Outlook and targets
 High investments in the
Immowelt-brand (Online-/TVcampaigns)
+
 Uplift in performance through
new cooperations (e.g.
meinestadt, kalaydo)
 Revenues to grow with a doubledigit CAGR over the next five
years
 After investments in the
Immowelt-brand EBITDA-margin
to increase to +40%
Darker shade =
higher search volume per region
18
Encouraging results…
… for real estate agents: More leads
… for Immowelt: Higher ARPA2)
DUO1) customers may more than double
their leads
+14%
in €
+145%
230
224
220
210
200
191
190
180
214
+12%
196
218
201
185
175
178
170
160
150
Jan 2015
1) Based
Jan 2016
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
on an internal analysis of the daily leads per listing for 3,500 customers that had an Immowelt contract in Jan 2015 and new DUO contract in Jan 2016.
(Average Revenue Per Agent); monthly revenues of Immowelt + Immonet, divided by the number of agents (duplications eliminated, estimated
before Jun 2015) Sources: Immowelt, Immonet.
2) ARPA
19
Strengthening classifieds vacation rentals vertical
Bolt-on acquisition of
Traum-Ferienwohnungen (04/16)

One of the leading
online marketplaces for
vacation rentals in Germany

Voluntary PTO for
Land & Leisure (05/16)

Majority acquisition
(50.01%) by @Leisure
(Axel Springer stake 51%)
Land & Leisure brands
DanCenter (holiday homes) and
DanLand (holiday parks) with strong presence in
Scandinavia (especially Denmark)

Established in 1957, listed on Nasdaq Nordic,
~240 employees

Founded 2001, based in Bremen,
~100 employees


Founders continue to lead the business
@Leisure Group with cash offer price of
DKK 6.05 per share for up to 100% of all shares
(max. total of ~€61.8m)

Irrevocable undertakings to accept offer
already received (for total of 63.76%)

Offer is subject to certain conditions, including
the approval by antitrust authorities. Closing
envisaged for Q3/16.
20
Highest organic growth in classifieds verticals
still in jobs with 13.8%
Jobs
EBITDA share
43%
Q1/16
Q/15
yoy
Revenues
95.7
83.5
14.6%
Revenues (pro forma)
95.7
84.1
13.8%
EBITDA*
35.9
35.2
2.0%
37.5%
42.2%
-4.7pp
Q1/16
Q1/15
yoy
Revenues
65.3
49.8
31.2%
Revenues (pro forma)
65.3
61.4
6.3%
EBITDA*
28.4
22.4
26.8%
43.4%
45.0%
-1.5pp
Q1/16
Q1/15
yoy
Revenues
51.9
42.9
20.9%
Revenues (pro forma)
52.2
47.7
9.4%
EBITDA*
19.8
14.4
37.4%
38.2%
33.6%
4.6pp
in €m
Margin
Real estate
EBITDA share
34%
in €m
Margin
General/Other
EBITDA share
24%
in €m
Margin
* Total EBITDA includes costs of €0.9m in Q1/16 and €1.8m in Q1/15 (thereof business development, M&A and other), not allocated to the three pillars.
21
Classified Ad Models continue with double-digit
revenue growth
in €m
Q1/16
Q1/15
yoy
Revenues
212.9
176.2
20.9%
Revenues (pro forma)
213.3
193.3
10.3%
207.2
170.9
21.2%
5.7
5.2
8.1%
83.2
70.2
18.4%
39.1%
39.9%
-0.8pp
Advertising
Other
EBITDA*
Margin
 Revenue increase due to continued
strong organic growth (10.3%) and
acquisitions
 EBITDA up 18.4%
* Total EBITDA includes costs of €0.9m in Q1/16 and €1.8m in Q1/15 (thereof business development, M&A and other), not allocated to the three pillars.
22
Highlights Paid Models
Paid Models segment at a Glance
Highlights
 Focus on market-leading media
brands with clear path to
digitization
Paid Models
National
International
 BILD group
 Business Insider
 WELT group/N24
 upday
 National paid models dominated
by unique asset BILD
 Entering English-speaking media
market with Business Insider
acquisition
 Strong presence in Eastern
Europe (JV with Ringier)
 Introduction of innovative mobile
news service for Samsung
devices
24
 Ringier Axel Springer Media
(Poland, Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia)
 Switzerland (in JV with Ringier),
France, Spain
(Main activities)
Financials
2015
Outlook 2016
Revenues in €m
1,582.2
Mid single-digit % decline
EBITDA in €m
223.2
Mid to high single-digit % decline
EBITDA-margin
14.1%
Business Insider: Centerpiece of our English
content strategy – Now it‘s about execution
150
journalists
(US edition)
25
+41% yoy
Revenues 2015
250-300
own articles
(daily)
Acquisition of Business Insider – major milestone
to expand into English-speaking world
Business Insider profile

Major business news website
in the US (founded 2007)

~325 employees (~50% journalists )

Axel Springer minority investor
with ~9% since January 2015

Reach growth 2009-14 of >80% p.a.

Revenue growth 2009-14 of >70% p.a.

Breakeven 2015 before growth
investments
Targets
 Revenues to grow >30% (CAGR) until 2020
 Breakeven envisaged by 2018
26
Deal Terms
 Acquisition of ~88% (total stake 97%)
 Long-term equity incentive for Henry Blodget
(Founder, CEO & Editor-in-chief) and Julie
Hansen (COO & President)
 Purchase price of €320.4m for 88%, based
on company valuation (cash/debt free) of
$390m (~€348m)
 Transaction closed in Q4/15
Innovative news service upday pre-installed on
Samsung Galaxy S7 devices since March 2016
Curation of
breaking news by
experienced
journalists with
nearly 24/7
coverage
Algorithm-based
personalization
27
27
upday – Innovative news service and strategic
partnership with Samsung
Profile


Strategic partnership to develop mobile
news service exclusively for Samsung
devices
Curation of news by experienced
journalists with nearly 24/7 coverage
combined with algorithm based news
feed tailored to personal interest

Aggregation of content from a broad
range of global and local media brands;
overall more than 1,000 sources

Reach of new audiences in an adblocker-free environment

Advertising for a targeted audience with
non-intrusive formats
28
International roll out
 Started as beta-version for Samsung
smartphones in Germany and Poland (09/15)
 Available as beta-version in Germany for
Samsung Gear S2 as smartwatch app
(09/15)
 Launched for Samsung smartphones in
Germany, Poland, France and UK (02/16)
 Pre-installed on Galaxy S7 devices in
covered countries (03/16)
Monetizing content in digital: positive
signals
„No ad – no content“ at bild.de
395,023
paying subscribers
at end of April 2016
+21.8%
Jan-Apr 16 vs Jan-Apr 15
29
80% reduction
of adblock ratio
~10% increase
in marketable reach
Paid Models EBITDA stable excluding growth
investments
in €m
Q1/16
Q1/15
yoy
Revenues
340.8
360.7
-5.5%
thereof digital (reported)
91.6
72.8
25.9%
thereof digital (pro forma)
91.6
79.0
16.0%
Advertising
140.1
139.6
0.4%
Circulation
154.5
174.1
-11.3%
Other
46.2
46.9
-1.6%
EBITDA
37.1
43.5
-14.7%
Margin
10.9%
12.1%
-1.2pp
Restructuring Exp.
5.2
7.9
-2.7
Launch Costs
7.4
2.1
5.3
49.7
53.5
-7.1%
14.6%
14.8%
-0.2pp
EBITDA ex. Restr./LC
Margin
30
 Revenue development impacted by
consolidation effects (mostly Swiss
activities), adjusted for these effects
down only 1.1%
 27% of revenues now from digital
 Advertising revenues adjusted for
cons. effects stable (+0.1%)
 Circulation revenues adj. for cons.
effects down 3.4%
 EBITDA decline due to planned
growth investments – adjusted for
these up in Q1/16 yoy
Paid Models International: EBITDA impacted by
growth investments for BI and upday
Paid Models National
Paid Models International
in €m
Q1/16
Q1/15
yoy
Q1/16
Q1/15
yoy
Revenues
265.6
270.9
-2.0%
75.2
89.8
-16.2%
thereof digital (reported)
57.2
47.7
20.0%
34.4
25.1
36.9%
thereof digital (pro forma)
57.2
47.7
20.0%
34.4
31.3
9.8%
Advertising
103.6
103.4
0.2%
36.6
36.2
0.9%
Circulation
129.8
134.5
-3.5%
24.7
39.7
-37.7%
Other
32.2
33.1
-2.6%
14.0
13.9
0.8%
38.3
34.7
10.3%
-1.2
8.8
−
14.4%
12.8%
1.6pp
-1.6%
9.8%
-11.4pp
Restructuring Exp.
5.1
7.8
-2.7
0.0
0.1
-0.1
Launch Costs
0.7
1.9
-1.2
6.7
0.2
6.5
44.2
44.5
-0.6%
5.5
9.0
-38.8%
16.6%
16.4%
0.2pp
7.3%
10.0%
-2.7pp
EBITDA
Margin
EBITDA ex. Restr./LC
Margin
31
Highlights Marketing Models
Marketing Models segment at a Glance
Highlights
 #1 positions in all major
marketing business models
 Reach based marketing with
margin >20%
 zanox group European market
leader in performance marketing
 Performance marketing with
structurally low margin (>4%)
33
Marketing Models
Reach Based Marketing
 Idealo
Performance Marketing
 zanox group
 aufeminin
 Digital Window
 Bonial
(kaufda/retale)
 eprofessional
(Main activities)
Financials
2015
Outlook 2016
Revenues in €m
878.9
Mid single-digit % increase
EBITDA in €m
88.0
On prior year level
EBITDA-margin
10.0%
Bonial: Going fast track international
Business model
 2008: Start in Germany, quickly achieved
market leading position (local brand “kaufda”)
Print insert…
…goes digital
 Research online – buy offline
Cost
per
Engagement
 Making use of location-based offerings,
also adding push alert functions
 2014: Bolt-on acquisition of MeinProspekt
Internationalization
 France (since 2011)
 Spain, Brazil (since 2012)
 USA (since 2013, local brand „retale“)
US market size for brochures (>15bn USD)
exceeds European market
 Mexico, Chile, Columbia, Sweden, Denmark,
and Norway (since 2015)
Mobile share of revenues
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
34
Bonial: Creating a global leader – main focus US
expansion
35
Marketing Models impacted by consolidation
effects and higher growth investments
in €m
Q1/16
Q1/15
yoy
Revenues
210.5
219.0
-3.9%
Revenues (pro forma)
210.5
201.6
4.4%
Advertising
179.7
172.8
4.0%
Other
30.8
46.1
-33.3%
19.5
22.1
-11.7%
9.3%
10.1%
-0.8pp
Restructuring Exp.
0.1
0.3
-0.2
Launch Costs
4.8
2.8
2.1
24.4
25.1
-2.9%
11.6%
11.5%
0.1pp
EBITDA*
Margin
EBITDA ex. Restr./LC
Margin
 Consolidation effects due to sale of
stake in Talpa Germany and Smart
AdServer in 2015
 Revenues adj. for cons. effects up
4.4% (ad revs +2.9%, other revs
+15.1%)
 EBITDA development (adj. for cons.
effects -9.1%) driven by higher
launch costs for Retale
* Total EBITDA includes costs of €1.8m in Q1/16 and €2.0m in Q1/15 (thereof business development, M&A and other), not allocated to the two pillars.
36
Reach Based Marketing: Revenues ex
consolidation effects up 14% (reported -12%)
Reach Based Marketing
Performance Marketing
Q1/16
Q1/15
yoy
Q1/16
Q1/15
yoy
Revenues
68.9
78.5
-12.2%
141.6
140.6
0.7%
Revenues (pro forma)
68.9
61.0
12.8%
141.6
140.6
0.7%
Advertising
55.0
45.6
20.5%
124.7
127.2
-2.0%
Other
13.9
32.7
-57.6%
16.9
13.3
26.6%
EBITDA
15.3
17.5
-12.3%
5.9
6.6
-10.5%
Margin
22.2%
22.2%
0.0pp
4.2%
4.7%
-0.5pp
Restructuring Exp.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.3
Launch Costs
4.8
2.8
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
20.2
20.2
-0.2%
6.0
6.9
-13.8%
29.3%
25.8%
3.5pp
4.2%
4.9%
-0.7pp
in €m
EBITDA ex. Restr./LC
Margin
* Total EBITDA includes costs of €1.8m in Q1/16 and €2.0m in Q1/15 (thereof business development, M&A and other), not allocated to the two pillars.
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Investor Relations contacts
Claudia Thomé
Co-Head of Investor Relations
Daniel Fard-Yazdani
Co-Head of Investor Relations
Phone: +49 30 2591 77421
Mobile: +49 160 90445035
Phone: +49 30 2591 77425
Mobile: +49 151 52844459
[email protected]
[email protected]
Axel Springer SE: Axel-Springer-Str. 65, 10888 Berlin, Germany, Fax: +49 30 2591 77422
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