Corporate Mobility 2020

Corporate Mobility 2020
International Fleet Meeting Geneva 2015
Prof. Dr. Stefan Reindl
Sascha Kahl
Carsten Lieber
Fleet Survey 2015
Geneva
March, 2015
Business Mobility 2020
Agenda
1. Global View: Market Structures
2. Trends Affecting Mobility and Fleets
3. Selection of Vehicles and Brands
4. Fleet Management Challenges
5. Fleet Management 2020
New Registrations in Different Market Areas
Passenger cars [m.]
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
+33.5%
North America
-6.7%
18.4
13.0
4.6
12.1
+32.7%
China
+31.9%
13.8
3.5
Japan / South
Korea
9.1
+8.5%
2010
6.8
2010
2014*
India
2014
13.76
5.5
6.0
2010
2014*
18.37
+19.4%
2010
2014*
2.4
Global
+28.5%
+18.1%
2010
84.1
Central- / South
America
ROW
+20.2%
4.1
2010
Seite 3
2014*
65.5
55.4
2010
2.8
2014*
+18.1%
4.9
2014*
1.6
1.9
2010
2014*
2020*
Sources: OICA 2015 | VDA 2015 | *Some 2014 Data estimated by Institut für Automobilwirtschaft (IFA)
Overview: Global Fleet Market
New registrations in fleets: Passenger cars & light vehicles
2.0
2.5
1.9
47%
2.9
48%
36%
43%
88%
53%
52%
2010
2014
55.4
7.6
New registrations [m.]
86%
64%
57%
5.6
2.5
3.0
2010
12%
14%
2010
2014
4.2
2014
4.7
Private sales
79%
84%
Commercial/Business sales
2.3
1.8
13.8
21%
1.0
Global
55.4
81%
65.5
80%
64%
16%
2010
57%
19%
20%
24%
2010
2014
2020
69%
65%
31%
35%
43%
45%
2010
2014
42%
2010
2014
2010
2.6
2.5
43%
36%
24%
27%
2010
2014
2.6
88%
86%
2014
2.3 m.
2.9 m.
4.5 m.
Relevant Fleet Market
Seite 4
2.4
92%
90%
55%
36%
97%
97%
3%
2010
3%
2014
18.4
1.4
0.9
2014
84.1
76%
58%
2.0
Sources: Automotive Fleet 2015 I KBA 2015 I Roland Berger 2014 I SMMT 2015 I Statista 2015
12%
14%
2010
2014
8%
10%
2010
2014
Business Mobility 2020
Agenda
1. Global View: Market Structures
2. Trends Affecting Mobility and Fleets
3. Selection of Vehicles and Brands
4. Fleet Management Challenges
5. Fleet Management 2020
Selected Drivers for Change in Mobility
Trends lead to new attitudes regarding mobility by car
 Optimization of Infrastructure and
telematics systems and services
Urbanisation
Smart Cities
Environmental &
Climate Problems
Overcharged
Infrastructure
Craving for
Flexibility
Multimodal
Mobility Concepts
Craving for
Connectivity
 Intelligent and connected vehicles, means of
transport and people
 New information and communication
systems to connect different modes of
transport
 Networking of manufacturers, suppliers,
mobility providers etc.
Changing
Demographics
Advanced Car
Technologies
Seite 6
Gap between the
rich and poor
Internationalization
& Globalization
Altering
Lifestyles
Shrinking Real
Earnings
 Creating and establishing new mobility
services and new business models
 New drive concepts for cars (BEV, Fuel Cell,
Hybrid)
 …
Source: Institut für Automobilwirtschaft (IFA)
Car Ownership in Selected Market Areas
Most propends prefer car ownership
Car Ownership
 The Question: Your available budget
and your everyday needs are given.
What do you prefer?
Seite 7

own a car for yourself

something else
 Something else means:

“lease a car for yourself“

“rent a car wherever you need it“

“use a car of a car sharing
organization“
Source: Continental Mobility Study 2015 | Figures in percent | n = 400 per country, old and young contrast groups
Relevant Fleet Management Drivers
Institutional players and determinants
Company related players and determinants
Company
Stakeholder
User Chooser
Seite 8





Total cost of ownership (TCO)
Financial situation
Corporate policy
Tax burden, tax implications, inflation
Unrestricted labor mobility and vehicle
access




Shareholder interests and values
Financial solvency
General business risks
Cost efficiency




Personality, personal identity and image
Motivation and aspiration
Services to ensure unrestricted mobility
Mobility effectiveness
External players and determinants
Environment






Fuel alternatives
Emission standards
Vehicle selection (Remarketing)
Market specific volume and vehicle demand
Driver‘s preferance, attitude and ethos
Inflation
Government




Transport policy and regulations
Fiscal policy and road pricing
Strategy in transport safety
Environmental policy and regulations
Fleet
Management
Companies




Contract volume and sales
Residual value management
Services and client support
Competitiveness
Car
Manufacturers




Distribution and service network
Fleet model and service range
Attractiveness of financial and fleet services
Competitiveness in fleet management
Sources: Cooke, P. N. C. 2010 | modified by Institut für Automobilwirtschaft (IFA) 2015
Structure and Characteristics of Fleets
e. g. Chinese fleet sectors und decision criteria
Holding
Period
Regional
Coverage
Decisionmaking
Process
Decision
Criteria
Seite 9
Government
Taxi Companies
Police
Leasing Companies
Insurance
Companies
< 5 years
4-8 years
3-5 years
3-5 years
5-6 years
 Capital: Group
purchasing for all
central authorities
 Other cities: local
purchasing
 All cities: Each city
does ist own
purchasing
 Capital: Group purchase
for Ministry of Public
Secrurity
 Other cities: local
purchasing
 Big cities: Central
purchasing at
headquarters such as in
Beijing and Shanghai
 Big cities: Central
purchasing at headquarters
such as in Beijing , Shanghai
and Shenzen
 Central ministries:
Central purchsing
through public
tenders
 Local governments
contuct public
tenders, but each
department manages
own transactions
 Brand fit of official
profile
 After-sales service
centers and discounts
 Price (needs to be
within certain range)
 Local taxi mgmt.
bureau determines a
shortlist of taxi
models and brands
 Taxi companies or
indivdual taxi drivers
determine their
prefered model based
on shortlist
 Price
 Fuel efficiency
 Maintenance cost
 Quality/reliability
 National or local Ministries
of Public Secrurity carry
out group purchasing
through public tenders
 Companies purchase
centrally through tenders
 Companies purchase
centrally through tenders
 Quality
 Price
 Price
 Aftersales service network
coverage
 Brand recognition
 Price
 Brand
 After-sales network
coverage
Source: Roland Berger 2014
Business Mobility 2020
Agenda
1. Global View: Market Structures
2. Trends Affecting Mobility and Fleets
3. Selection of Vehicles and Brands
4. Fleet Management Challenges
5. Fleet Management 2020
Fleet Management: Selection of „Right“ Vehicles
Preferred types of vehicles in specific market areas
Small cars
Seite 11
Mid-sized cars
Large cars
Source: Continental Mobility Study 2015
SUV
Preferred Brands & Vehicles in Different Market Areas (1)
TOP 5 CARS in selected markets
VW
21.6%
Ford
Mercedes
9.0%
Vauxhall
Audi
8.5%
VW
BMW
Opel
Audi
7.8%
BMW
7.2%
VW Golf
255'044
Ford Fiesta
13.2%
10.9%
8.7%
Renault
Peugeot
VW
6.0%
Dacia
Renault Clio
12.9%
7.8%
5.7%
105'182
Fiat
VW
20.7%
8.1%
VW
9.0%
Seat
7.9%
Ford
6.7%
Opel
7.8%
Renault
6.0%
Renault
7.6%
Opel
5.6%
Peugeot
7.3%
Seat Leon
27'714
Fiat Panda
104'352
Fiat Punto
57'144
Seat Ibiza
27'572
62'985
Fiat 500L
51'256
VW Polo
23'810
Peugeot 308
60'842
Lancia Ypsilon
51'143
Opel Corsa
23'374
Citroen C3
59'627
Fiat 500
43'593
VW Golf
21'859
VW Passat
72'153
Ford Focus
85'140
Peugeot 208
VW Polo
68'103
Vauxhall Corsa
81'783
Renaul Captur
Audi A3
65'199
Volkswagen Golf
73'880
VW Tiguan
61'497
Vauxhall Astra
59'689
Seite 12
17.0%
Citroen
6.4%
131'254
19.7%
83'965
Sources: Auto Motor und Sport 2015 I Car sales statistics 2015 I Statista 2014
Preferred Brands & Vehicles in Different Market Areas (2)
TOP 5 CARS in selected markets
Ford
14.4%
Fiat
20.0%
Volkswagen
Toyota
13.8%
Chevrolet
12.3%
GM
18.9%
Wuling
7.1%
Honda
Toyota
12.1%
VW
18.6%
Hyundai
5.7%
Suzuki
Changan
4.9%
Daihatsu
Toyota
4.9%
Nissan
Honda
Nissan
Hyundai
7.7%
Ford F-Series
Chevrolet Silverado
Ford
8.3%
750'000
530'000
9.0%
7.6%
Fiat Novo Palio
183'741
Ford Focus
VW Gol
183'356
Volkswagen Lavida
403'600
374'100
Toyota Aqua
Honda Fit
Dodge Ram
440'000
Fiat Strada
153'130
Buick Excelle
296'200
Toyota Prius
Toyota Camry
429'000
Chevrolet Onix
150'829
Chevrolet Sail
276'300
Toyota Corolla
Volkswagen Sagitar
271'200
Toyota Voxy
Honda Accord
Seite 13
388'000
Fiat Novo Uno
121'241
Sources: Auto Motor und Sport 2015 I Car sales statistics 2015 I Statista 2014
27.1%
15.3%
14.2%
12.7%
12.0%
233'209
202'838
Lada
15.5%
Kia
7.9%
Renault
7.8%
Hyundai
7.2%
Nissan
6.5%
Lada Granta
Hyundai Solaris
152'810
114'644
Kia Rio
93'648
114'331
Renault Duster
76'138
109'174
Lada Kalina
65'609
183'614
ICE Powertrain Alternatives
General determinants with high complexity in interdependency
Climate policy
 The competition between old and new
technologies are determined by a field of
different political, economic and
technical factors and variables.
Politics
Economy & Energy
CO2-Limits
Society & Mobility
Penalty
Industry & technology
Incentives to buy
Taxation
Research
promotion
Use restrictions
Development
traffic
infrastructure
Public
authorities
Settlement structure esp.
urbanization
Demographic chance
Energy policy
Ecology chance
Value and preference
structure
Usage behavior
Real income
Economic structure
Economic growth
Energy prices
esp. oil price
Energy infrastructure
User acceptance
Security of supply
Social acceptance
Relative TCO
Energy ressources
Potential suppliers
Attractiveness mode
of transport
User requirements
 Overall, 36 scenario variables can be
derived, in conjunction with their future
development on calculations, but also
through experience-based, qualitative
estimates in the scenarios.
Alternativ fuel
Conv. technology (ICE)
Memory technology
Suitability for daily use
Market strategy
Relative costs
OEM concentration
cooperation
Removal
Source: Institut für Automobilwirtschaft, Survey: „Otto-, Diesel-, Elektromotor – wer macht das Rennen?“
Seite 14
 The slide displays an overview of the
relevant variables as well the possible
interactions.
 High complexity and large uncertainties
in estimating future developments of
relevant variables limit the forecasting.
Residual Value as a Core Challenge
e. g. Germany with different sales structures: Private vs. commercial registrations
0
100'000 200'000 300'000 400'000 500'000 600'000 700'000 800'000 900'000
0%
MINI
5%
10%
15%
MNI
SMALL
SMALL
COMPACT
COMPACT
MEDIUM
MEDIUM
UPPER MIDDLE-SIZED
UPPER MIDDLE-SIZED
EXECUTIVE
SUVs
SPORTS CARS
CROSS-COUNTRY
CROSS COUNTRY/ SUV
SPORTS CAR
VANS (TOTAL)
MINI-VANS
UTILITIES
LARGE-VANS
UTILITIES
Usedproberty
Cars
hold
Registrations
CARAVAN
OTHERS
commercial registrations
Seite 15
private registrations
Sources: KBA 2014 I Statista 2014
20%
25%
30%
35%
Business Mobility 2020
Agenda
1. Global View: Market Structures
2. Trends Affecting Mobility and Fleets
3. Selection of Vehicles and Brands
4. Fleet Management Challenges
5. Fleet Management 2020
Core Challenges for Corporate Mobility
Present and today‘s requirements: Flexibilty & connectivity
Future
Present
OEMs
Leasing
Companies
Other
Suppliers
Integrated
Solution
Providers
Mobility
Services
Customisation
Corporate
Mobility
Travel
Agencies
Mobility
Integration
Platforms
Public
Transport
Fleet
Mgmt.
Providers
Seite 17
Flexible Working
Arrangement
Software
Platform
Providers
Source: Frost & Sullivan 2014
Mobility
Allowance (not
Car Allowance)
Case Study: BMW
Manufacturer changing their strategies: „Mobility Provider“
Smart
Parking
Ride
Sharing
Taxi
Hailing
Urban
Logistics
Integrated
Mobility
Seite 18
Source: Institut für Automobilwirtschaft (IFA) | Frost & Sullivan 2014
Car
Sharing
State of the Art: Provider
Driver Services
Customer
Mobility
Requirements
Full Service
Products
Seite 19
Source: Alphabet 2014
Product Portfolio
Services
Services and functions on example
Funding Solutions
 Contract hire
 Finance lease
 Sale and lease back
 Contract purchase
 Commercial vehicle
funding
 Structured
employee car
Ownership
 Employee car
schemes
 Salary sacrifice
Fleet
Management
Services
Advanced
Mobility
Solutions
 Maintenance and
repair
 Tyre management
 Insurance
 Roadside assistance
 Safety/ Eco driver
training
 Fleet administration
 Rental services
 Fuel management
 Accident
management
 Online services
 Costumer service
 LCV consulting
 Mileage capture and
audit
 Alpha Risk (Risk
management)
 Tax management
 Fine management
 CO2 compensation
 AlphaCity
(Car sharing)
 AlphaElectric
(Electric mobility)
 AlphaGuide
(Smart app)
 JustPark
 Strategic mobility
consultant
Mobility Needs and Requirements
Connected means of transport
Current
Services
Integrated
Booking
Rental
Car
Taxi
Local public
transportation
Real-time
Information of
Integrated Means of
Transport
Bicycle
Alternativ
Routing
Car
Sharing
+ partners
Seite 20
Car
Cross & Upsellingproducts
(Hotel, Suggage Service…)
Flight
Long-distance
transport
+ partners
Source: Frost & Sullivan 2014
Social
Travelling
Coach
Business Mobility 2020
Agenda
1. Global View: Market Structures
2. Trends Affecting Mobility and Fleets
3. Selection of Vehicles and Brands
4. Fleet Management Challenges
5. Fleet Management 2020
Fleet Professionalization
Market-specific approach
Develop/
Push
“Readiness“
High
Low
BRIC
Future
Emerging
Markets
Derive market strategy
Catch up
Market Maturity
Assess attractiveness
Triad
Markets
(China)
Build
Low
Seite 22
Defend
Adapt processes, toolkits
High
Source: Roland Berger 2014 | revised and updated by Institut für Automobilwirtschaft (IFA) 2015
Changing Mobility Requirements
New challenges for corporate mobility
1. Fleets
3. Services
- Increasing demand for flexible car using
- Corporate mobility with more importance
than company fleets
concepts to reduce investment-, fixed- and
- Rising demand for services, which combine
operating cost
mobility and value added benefits, e. g.
- Decreasing significance of the car as a status
media integration, connectivity
symbol for companies
etc.
Corporate
2. Products
Mobility 2020
Main trends and focuses on these aspects:
- Downsizing
- Customizability
- Total cost of mobility
- Product innovation
- “Environmental and political correctness“
Seite 23
4. Mobility
- Global growth in demand for mobility
- less available funds of companies for
mobility or shifted budget priorities
- Increasing demand for flexible mobility
solutions
Sources: Arthur D. Little: Zukunft der Mobilität 2009 | revised and updated by Institut für Automobilwirtschaft (IFA)
State of the Art: Provider Network
Fleet
Management
Mobility
Management
Seite 24
Fleet Disposition
• Special configuration of line networks
• Determination of vehicle usage rules
• Tourplaning (assignment driver, vehicle, route)
• Design of an information and communication
architecture
Mobility Services
• Travel management
• Carsharing
• Mobility budget
Source: Institut für Automobilwirtschaft (IFA)
Independent
Automotive Fleet
and Leasing
Companies
(Non Captives)
Full Service
Leasing /
Contract Live
Fleet Configuration
• Techniqual service
• Type of fuel
• Legal investigation
• Vehicle replacement
• Data collection and analysis
Specialized
Fleet
Management
Companies
Financial
Services
Fleet Structure Configuration
• Fleet dimensioning
• Vehicle configuration
• Funding
OEM-specific
Fleet
Management
Companies
(Captives)
Services and functions
Mobility Provider
Network
Corporate Mobility 2020
International Fleet Meeting Geneva 2015
Prof. Dr. Stefan Reindl
Sascha Kahl
Carsten Lieber
Fleet Survey 2015
Geneva
March, 2015