Folie 1

Der türkische Photovoltaikmarkt
Status & Perspektiven
Christian Grundner
eclareon Management Consultants
Berlin, September 2012
Policy Consulting
Market Intelligence
Strategy Consulting
Business Promotion
Financial Advisory
ALLGEMEINE BEDINGUNGEN
Der Süden der Türkei bietet durch seine hohe Bevölkerungsdichte und
hohe Einstrahlungswerte ideale Bedingungen für Photovoltaik.
Annual average solar radiation
•
1527 kWh/m² per year
Annual average sunlight hours
•
2,738 hours/year (7.5 hours per day)
General PV potential
•
Population density (people per km²)
Feasible land area for PV investments:
•
Total feasible PV capacity:
-
•
4,600 km² (irradiation >1650 kWh/m²)
450 – 500 GWp
Annual PV generation capacity:
-
650 – 700 TWh
Source: EIE – General Directorate of Electrical Power Resources Survey & Development Administration (2011)
2
HISTORISCHE MARKTENTWICKLUNG
Durch stark gefallene Systemkosten und hohe Strompreise wird der
Einspeistarif für große Freiflächenanlagen und Eigenverbrauch bei
Dachanlagen interessant.
Selected PV projects in Turkey
Size
Cumulative Installed Capacity [MWp]
10
Project
395 kWp
Turk Telekom
80-100 kWp
Turkcell base stations
94 kWp
Mugla University
35 kWp
Ege University
30 kWp
TESCO-Kipa mall (Marmaris)
30 kWp
TESCO-Kipa mall (Kusadasi)
30 kWp
Kocaeli province
30 kWp
Toyota Turkey
18 kWp
NATO-Ankara
15 kWp
Turkcell Izmir
3
1.6
0.1
0.2
0.5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011
Source: eclareon intelligence (2010/2012)
3
WIRTSCHAFT UND ENERGIE
Starkes Wirtschaftswachstum führt in der Türkei zu kontinuierlich
steigendem Energiebedarf und hohen Strompreisen.
General Economic Data
Area
814 578 km²
GDP (2011 est.):
US$ 735.1 bn.
Population
74,7 Million (90 inh/km²)
GDP Growth Rate 2010/2011e/2012e
8,9% / 4,6% / 4,5%
Official Language
Turkish (official), Kurdish,
other minority languages
National budget 2011 est.
Revenues: US$ 176.8 bn.
Expenditures: US$ 189.2 bn.
Government Type
Republic
Inflation Rate 2010/2011
8.6% / 7.8%
Administrative Division
81 Provinces
Unemployment rate 2010/2011
12% / 10.3%
Energy Production (2010) / - Consumption (2009/2010)
30.28 Mio. toe (Import 77,4 Mio. Toe)
97.66 Mio. Toe / 108,2 Mio Toe
Electricity Consumption (2011) / - Production (2011)
230 TWh / 229 TWh
Electricity Tariff (02/2012) (households / industry)
13.35 / 11.57 (EUR ct / kWh)
Electricity Demand Increase 2010 – 2011
~10% (annual increase of 6,5% projected until 2030)
Electricity Consumption per capita (2008)
Turkey: 2,400 kWh
RES electricity generation (2011)
25% (Hydro 23%, Wind 2%)
Fossil electricity generation (2011)
Gas: 102,130 GWh (45%) Coal: 64,573 GWh (28%) Liquid Fuels: 3,804 (2%)
Basic Energy Data
OECD: 8,486 kWh
Germany: 7,148 kWh
Source: CIA World Factbook; IEA (2011)
4
STROMMARKT
Der türkische Elektrizitätsmarkt lässt private Erzeuger und Händler zu,
und vor allem die Windenergie hat sich mittlerweile als privater
Erzeuger etabliert.
Supply structure in the Turkish Electricity Market
Generation
Transmission
BOT/BO/TOR/
MOBILE
Wholesale
Distribution
TETAS
TEDAS + 20
private DisCos
EUAS
Private
(autoproducer +
IPP)
Retail
Non-eligible
customer
TEIAS
Private
wholesaler
Eligible
customer
Source: MENR; TEIAS; eclareon intelligence (03/2010)
5
STROMNETZINFRASTRUKTUR
Gerade in ländlichen Regionen ist die Netzinfrastruktur zu schwach um
große Mengen PV-Strom aufzunehmen.
Electricity 400 kV grid of Turkey in 2008
Source: TEIAS 2009; eclareon intelligence (03/2010)
6
FÖRDERSYSTEM
Für Projekte über 500 kWp ist der Einspeisetarif interessant. Unter
500kWp ist Eigenverbrauch aufgrund des hohen Strompreises attraktiver.
Feed-in tariff
Remuneration
• 13.3 USD cent/kWh (10,28 EUR cent/kWh)
• Since 2011 the tariff is dollar-denominated which reduces exchange rate risks for foreign companies
Timeframe
• Payed for ten years from the date of operation. Current incentives valid for plants commissioned before 31st
December 2015
Eligible Parties
• Corporate bodies that are public companies or a Limited
• Operators need to apply for the license until the 31st of October to receive the tariff in the subsequent year
Market Cap
• For plants above 500kW the available licenses are capped at 600 MW
Additional
incentives for
Local Content
components
•
•
•
•
•
Requirements for
additional
incentives
Mounting structure component:
PV Module:
PV Cells:
Inverters:
Total amount:
0.8 USD ct/kWh
1.3 USD ct/kWh
3.5 USD ct/kWh
0.6 USD ct/kWh
6.2 USD ct/kWh
• Locally manufactured components need “Manufacture Status Document”
• Start of electricity generation before the end of 2015
• Operators are eligible to receive additional incentives for a five year term after start of operation
Source: eclareon intelligence (05/2012)
7
GENEHMIGUNGSVERFAHREN FÜR PV
Ein vereinfachter Lizensierungsprozess für Anlagen unter 500 kWp
lässt schon kurzfristig eine dynamische Marktentwicklung zu.
•
•
Plants up to 500 kWp
-
Valid since March 10th 2012
-
Above 500 kWp
-
Solar radiation on the plant site needs to be
measured for one year and submitted to the
Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Authority
(EMRA)
Grid connection possible with a simple permission by the grid
operator
-
-
At least 6 months need to be actually measured
on site
Plant operators shall generate only for own consumption (net
metering)
-
-
They may feed-in their surplus electricity to the grid
Connection licenses for plants above 500 kWp
are capped at 600 MW until 31st December
2013.
-
Extension to 1GW is expected after 2013.
-
Proof of land ownership or rental needs to be provided
Exempt from license and company establishment
requirements
Surplus electricity is eligible for the feed-in tariff
Distribution companies holding a retail license are obliged to
purchase the electricity surplus for 10 years
• PV plant operators only need to pay 25% of the grid fees
License and grid
fees
• Plants up to 1.000 kWp that are used for auto-consumption do not need to pay administration fees
• PV plants do not need to pay license fees during the first 8 years of operation
Source: eclareon intelligence (05/2012)
8
PV ANLAGENSEGMENTE
Das kurzfristig attraktivste Segment sind aktuell kommerzielle
Aufdachanlagen unter 500 kWp.
Off-grid market
Main
application
types
Micro applications for
lighting; telecom towers
Main system
sizes
Micro
< 2 kW
Rural and village
Main customer
electrification; Military sites;
groups
telecom companies
Residential
roof-top market
Commercial
roof-top markets
Utility-scale
project market
Roof-top systems on
Roof-top systems on
commercial / hotels /
residential homes mainly for
industrial office / public
auto-consumption and to
buildings (incl. some BIPV)
increase supply security
mainly for autoconsumption
Ground-mounted parks
Small-scale
< 10 kW
Medium-scale
10 kW – 500 kW
Large/utility-scale
> 500 kW
Private households
Large
companies;
Public institutions
Utilities;
Institutional Investors;
Independent Power
Producers
Attractiveness
for PV firms:
Source: eclareon interviews (03/2010)
9
AUSBLICK
Das Großanlagensegment wird aktuell noch durch den langwierigen
Lizensierungsprozess erschwert, welcher nicht für kleine Anlagen gilt.
Market barriers
•
•
•
600 MW cap for projects above 500kWp
1,000
in MWp
Relatively low feed-in tariff especially for small to medium
scale installations
Lack of know-how and strong domestic downstream sector
to push small to medium scale installations
500
750
Market drivers
•
•
•
High solar irradiation especially in densely populated
Southern regions
200
Eased licensing procedure for plants below 500kWp and
high industry electricity prices
1
10
2010
2011
400
175
2012e
2013e
2014e
High solar awareness among the society due to
widespread solar thermal applications
Source: eclareon intelligence (2012)
10
DEUTSCHE UNTERNEHMEN
Deutsche PV-Systemanbieter besitzen viel Erfahrung. Nutzen Sie diese!
Site analysis
Repair / exchange
Configuration
/planning
Economic
analysis
Contract
Marketing,
consulting &
sales
Mounting &
commissioning
Ordering &
procurement
Maintenance
Hardware PV SYSTEM
(all components) incl.
guarantees
Financing
Demounting/recycling
Technical support
Grid
Connection
Insurance
Monitoring
1
2
3
4
5
Sales
Planning
Purchase
Installation
Operation & use
(after-sales)
6
Divestment
(repowering)
Source: eclareon intelligence
ÜBER ECLAREON
eclareon ist eine international tätige Beratungsberatungsgesellschaft
mit Fokus auf Erneuerbare Energien und Energieeffizienz.
Target Market
Definition
Market Research
Policy
Consulting
Team
•
•
•
Market
Intelligence
Team
•
•
•
Strategy
Consulting
Team
•
Laws and regulation
Support schemes
Market Entry
Strategy
Analysis and assessment of market
attractiveness regarding political and
legal framework
Grid connection process
Business
Development
•
Extensive network consisting of
stakeholders, government
institutions, industry
associations, companies
Market development, segmentation
Distribution channels, competitive environment
Assessment of market attractiveness
•
•
•
Assessment of potential target markets
Development of an individual market entry strategy
Market cultivation strategies
•
Business
Promotion
Team
•
•
•
•
Financial
Advisory
Team
12
Workshop, targeted business and delegation
trips, road shows, matchmaking
Identification of project business opportunities
M&A consulting
Project due diligence
Consulting regarding project finance
WEITERFÜHRENDE BERATUNG
Christian Grundner
Project Manager
Market Intelligence
Christian holds a combined degree in business administration and industrial
engineering. In addition, he holds a post-graduate Diploma in Global Business
Management awarded by the University of California, Berkeley. Christian is mainly
responsible for the market intelligence services and online databases offered by
eclareon.
Discover sales opportunities in emerging PV markets!
eclareon GmbH
Luisenstr. 41
10117 Berlin
Germany
Our Country Reports cover licensing & grid connection processes, feed-in tariffs and
other subsidy schemes, as well as sales market and industry analysis. They are
continuously updated, analytical and well structured PowerPoint presentations and can
be accessed directly through a browser presentation mode.
www.PV-Market-Navigator.com
Phone: +49 30 258 990 43
Fax: +49 30 246 286 94
eMail: [email protected]
www.eclareon.com
13
Policy Consulting
Market Intelligence
Strategy Consulting
Business Promotion
Financial Advisory
DISCLAIMER
Content
The content of this document has been carefully prepared and reviewed. However, eclareon does
not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or quality of the information provided, or that it is up-todate. Liability claims against eclareon in respect of material or immaterial damage caused by the
use or non-use of the information offered or by inaccurate or incomplete information are in principle
ruled out provided that there is no provable culpable intent or gross negligence on the company’s
part. Eclareon is not responsible for the content, availability, correctness or accuracy of the
aforementioned information sources or of the offerings, links or advertisements therein. It is not
liable for illegal, incorrect or incomplete content or in particular for damages arising from the use or
non-use of the information provided on linked sites.
Copyright
In all publications, eclareon endeavours to comply with applicable copyrights. If, in spite of this, an
infringement of copyright should occur, eclareon will after notification remove the relevant object
from its publication or indicate the appropriate copyright.
DISCLAIMER