This publication is a summary.

Transcription

This publication is a summary.
For the full report, please contact your account manager
Table of contents
Introduction: Continuing the two-track approach for 2H09
2
Macro-economic outlook: A very different recession
Headline scennario
Modest economic recovery
Equities ahead of economy
Governement bond yiels in upward trend
US dollar to regain territory
Depression scenario
New lows for equities
Even government bonds not to be trusted
Dollar structurally lower
Overview of forecast of main economic variable
4
4
4
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
Introducing our Defensive selection
Ahold
Crucell
Royal Dutch Shell
11
12
16
20
Introducing our Recovery selection
Aegon
SBM Offshore
USG People
25
26
30
34
Introducing our GARP selection
Arcadis
Mediq
Unit4 Agresso
39
40
44
48
Introducing our Underperformer selection
Akzo Nobel
Philips
Randstad
53
54
58
62
Appendices
Performance Top Picks 2003
Performance Top Picks 2006 – A midyear update
No redistribution allowed without permission
[email protected]
www.snssecurities.nl
All news is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept any responsibility
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Page 2/28
Introduction
Continuing the two-track approach for H209
12 stocks that offer strong
return prospects in the second
half of 2009
It is our pleasure to present to you, as you have grown accustomed to, the best
investment ideas for the second half of 2009 from the Dutch large, mid and small
cap universe. As usual, the top pick list, consisting of 12 stocks, is the culmination
of a very thorough research process and is therefore considered one of the
highlights for our research department.
Unusual uncertainty about the
length and depth of the
recession
Our macro-economic view, in a nut shell, is that there may be signs of a recovery in
Q409 but this is highly uncertain, more uncertain than macro-economic forecasts
normally are. Given that we are in almost unchartered territory, it could well be that
the assumption of a recovery in Q409 or H110 is too optimistic and that the first
signs of a recovery only become visible in the second half of FY10.
Two track approach: Defensive
and Recovery
That is why we have opted for a two-track approach to our FY09 Top Picks and
Mid-year update, resulting in the following categories:
Defensive selection for those
who believe in an extended
recession…
•
Defensive
•
Recovery
•
GARP
•
Underperformers
For those investors that are of the opinion that the economic recession will last
longer than usual and that there will not be signs of a recovery in the fourth quarter
of FY09 or that the markets already reflect a major part of this scenario, the Value
or Defensive category will be most suitable. The companies in this category are
active in defensive sectors or have leading position in niche markets that are not
impacted by the recession to the same extent as certain volume markets.
Companies in this segment must also have relatively stable cash flows and a strong
balance sheet.
…with a Recovery selection who Investors that think along the same lines of our macro-economists and strategists
but do not consider current share price to reflect a positive scenario will be more
assume that the first positive
interested in the Recovery category. This category includes companies active in
signals will show in Q409
early cyclical industries or which are (considered to be) high beta companies, which
react significantly to positive or negative news flow. This is clearly the more risky
category but also the one that may generate the highest return.
GARP selection criteria
unchanged
We have retained the GARP category, which stands for Growth At Reasonable
Price. This category includes companies that will show absolute growth in earnings
or which have a better growth profile than peers while having an attractive
valuation. The selection of the GARP companies has been made irrespective of our
macro-economic view and may include companies that have a relatively higher risk
profile as well as companies with more defensive qualities.
Underperformer selection for
those looking for short ideas
The Underperformer category includes companies that will substantially
underperform versus peers, companies that will still have to issue a profit warning
that is not yet priced in or companies that have a high risk in terms of leverage.
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Page 3/28
For each of our Top Picks, we have drawn up a four-page summary including our
investment case as well as our view on each company’s strategy, financial position,
recent news, catalysts, valuation and a SWOT analysis.
Our Top Picks for the second
half of FY09 are
Our Top Picks for 2009 are:
SNS Top Picks return exceeds
those of main indices in last 7
years.
•
Defensive
: Ahold, Crucell and Royal Dutch Shell
•
Recovery
: Aegon, SBM Offshore and USG People
•
GARP
: Arcadis, Mediq and Unit4 Agresso
•
Underperformer
: Akzo Nobel, Philips and Randstad
Before we move on to our Top Picks for the second half of 2009, we would like to
draw your attention to the results of the Top picks from previous years. As you can
see from the graph on the right hand side, the SNS Securities Research Top Picks
have generated a return in the last 7 years that greatly exceeds the return of all the
other Dutch indices, whose returns in the same period are negative.
The graph on the left hand side shows our performance in a different manner (not
cumulative). Apart from FY07, we have always outperformed the Amsterdam All
Share index. This is proof that our stock-picking methodology works in bear as well
as bull markets.
7-year cumulative return Top Picks versus Dutch indices
Performance of SNS Top Picks versus the Dutch indices
FY02 rebased at 100
65%
350
46%
Return (excl dividend)
38%
30% 32%
33%
13%
5%
6%
17%
15%
6%
3%
33%
27%
25%
25%
300
28%
24%
21%
17%
12%
9%
19%
8%
7%
4%
3%
0%
4%
20%
7%
250
200
150
0%
FY 2003
FY 2004
FY 2005
FY 2006 * FY 2007 1H
2008
* 2H 2008
-7%
-9%
-12%
-14% -14%
1H 2009
100
50
-33%
-39%
-41% -43%
-42%
-47%
0
FY03
-65%
FY04
AEX 100
AEX (large caps)
AMX (mid caps)
Source: Bloomberg, SNS Securities
ASCX (small caps)
AEX all share index
FY05
FY06
AMX 100
ASCX 100
FY07
AAX 100
1H08
H208
1H09
SNS Securities 100
SNS Top Picks
Source: Bloomberg, SNS Securities
We hope that you enjoy reading our Top Picks 2009 and look forward to speaking
or meeting you in the near future.
On behalf of SNS Securities,
Martijn den Drijver, Co-head of Research
Frank van Wijk, Co-head of Research
[email protected]
Page 4/28
Macro-economic outlook
A VERY DIFFERENT RECESSION
Introduction
The world economy has gone through a dreadful period, but seems to have
stabilised now. The big question of course is whether this lays the groundwork for a
recovery later in the year.
Financial system origin of the
recession in this time
If other recession periods are indicative, one could say that it is high time for an
economic upturn. In the US the recession already started at the end of 2007, while
none of the preceding recession since World War II have lasted longer than 16
months. Indeed, most investors and analysts count on a recovery now. According to
a poll by the NABE American business economists expect a ‘modest second-half
rebound’ in real GDP. Here we are on slippery grounds however because the
current recession is fundamentally different from the previous ones, including the
severe recessions at the mid seventies and the beginning of the eighties. The origin
are the excesses within the financial system, while the earlier recessions stemmed
from problems within the economy itself and in particular from runaway inflation.
The current recession rather resembles the economic malaise in Japan in the
previous decade. One of the characteristics of these kind of recessions is that they
are usually very difficult to combat. Of course governments and central banks have
responded much more aggressively compared to the Japanese authorities in the
nineties, but it is still doubtful whether the measures are sufficient. All countries are
in severe trouble now, while Japan at the time had the advantage of rising demand
from abroad.
Forceful response, but is it
enough?
To be sure, thanks to the forceful response of central banks there clear signs of a
relaxation within the financial system. The loan officer surveys in the US and
Euroland show for example that a decreasing number of banks tightened their
conditions for granting loans. Furthermore, with the outcome of the stress tests for
large US banks and the subsequent successful equity issuance by a number of
banks, a critical hurdle seems to have been taken. It is also a plus that, generally
speaking, companies have no difficulty in issuing debt and that credit spreads have
narrowed considerably. On top of that the Ted spread has fallen to levels last seen
at the very beginning of the credit crisis in the summer of 2007. There remains one
big worry however. The interbank market is still frozen apart from very short term
maturities. Banks still rely on central banks in case they want to borrow for periods
longer than a month or so.
Two scenarios to keep in mind
Given the high level of uncertainty we prefer not to follow only one course. Next to
our headline scenario we will also discuss a much more negative
depression/deflation scenario.
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Page 5/28
HEADLINE SCENARIO
Modest economic recovery
‘Green shoots’ have emerged
As is well known the financial system was struck by an infarct after the Lehman
debacle. The banking system and credit markets stopped functioning properly. The
crisis leapt onto the real economy because credit to companies and households
stopped flowing, confidence evaporated and asset prices fell steeply. Companies
were confronted with a collapse in demand for their products and started to destock, which in turn intensified the economic downturn. In spring of this year
however, some ‘green shoots’ emerged, signaling that the worst of the recession
was over. In particular the fact that in the US consumer demand gained some
traction was important in this respect. This happened in spite of an ongoing decline
in employment and a further weakening housing market. The steep decline in
inflation may have tipped the balance here. In the meantime, consumer confidence
has risen considerably (according to the Conference Board). In our main scenario
we assume that consumers will keep up spending, supported by lower taxes (as of
last April). Companies will respond by raising production later in the year in order to
keep up with higher consumer demand and to bring inventories at levels that are
more in accordance with higher demand. That is the usual way the economy is set
in motion.
Consumers to raise savings
structurally
It should be taken into account that if a recovery arrives, it will be at best a very
modest one. After all the nasty experiences, Americans do not want to rely on rising
house values anymore as the way of building wealth. They will raise their savings
rate structurally. The other part of domestic demand – fixed investments by
companies - will also remain subpar. Given the very uncertain economic outlook,
companies will not count on a profit recovery. Furthermore, there are no production
bottlenecks that force companies to raise capacity enhancing investments.
Unemployment has soared to 9.4%, comparing with a ‘natural’ unemployment rate
of some 5%, whereas the industrial capacity utilisation rate has fallen to 69.3%, the
lowest level ever registered.
Euro zone economy not to
rebound on it is own acccord
The picture for the euro zone economy doesn’t compare favourably to that of the
US. Struck by a collapse in exports the economic downturn has been even more
severe than in the US. Admittedly, most confidence indicators have turned up, but
hard evidence of an economic revival is hard to find. Consumer demand growth has
been very weak in the six years up to a year ago when it even turned into negative
territory. The trend is very unlikely to change direction in coming months. In
particular the steep rise of unemployment will give consumers reason to remain
cautious. The euro zone economy is set to leave the current through as well, but it
will not be a recovery on its own accord. We assume it should be taken in tow by
other economies, notably by the US.
Inflation contained
Inflation will not become an issue. The energy price development will lead to higher
headline inflation in the US and the euro zone later in the year because of an
unfavourable y-o-y comparison, but given the modest growth prospects, the (huge)
output gap will close in only very slowly and underlying inflation will remain low.
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Page 6/28
Equities ahead of economy
Equities: upward potential
limited for the time being
The equity markets have been very resilient since March. The rally will be partly
founded on relief that the world has not fallen prey to a total financial meltdown.
Indication is that in particular banking stocks have performed strongly. However,
also cyclical stocks made great headway, suggesting that a lot of the upcoming
recovery has already been priced in. Since we have reason to believe that domestic
demand in the US will be very modest at best, and that growth in the euro zone will
not pick up on its own accord, it very unlikely that the actual economic data will
confirm the expectations of investors, let alone exceed them. Furthermore, polls
among investors show that equity sentiment is very positive, which makes investors
vulnerable to news that is not as good as expected. For these reasons, we foresee
equities in a trading range in coming months where we’re probably at the upside of
the range at the moment. We don’t expect to fall back to the March lows but the
lows of November of last year might be possible. Fears of a total meltdown of the
financial system remain contained in this scenario, which is the key reason that the
lows of last March will not be broken.
8/6/09
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
SEP
OCT NOV DEC
JAN FEB MAR
DJ EURO STOXX - PRICE INDEX
S&P 500 COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX
NIKKEI 225 STOCK AVERAGE - PRICE INDEX
Longer term prospects
for equities not that bad
APR
MAY
JUN
Source: DATASTREAM
Looking beyond the short term, the outlook for equities is not that bad. When the
economy has stabilised, valuations will undoubtedly become a more important
issue and looking at valuations equities are attractive. Price-earnings ratios have
shot up in the US because of the steep drop in earnings, but based on operational
earnings the multiples are still not that high by historical standards. Price-to-trend
earnings are still very low and in Europe only just above the record lows of 1982.
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Page 7/28
Government bond yields in upward trend
Government bond yields may be The downtrend in bond yields reversed this year. This can be for the largest part
explained by the reversal of safe haven flows. The rise so far this year will not be
pushed even higher
reversed easily since real interest rates (yield on inflation-linked bonds) are still
exceptionally low. It suggests that bond investors have still a rather cautious view
on the economy. Yields may fall a little in case of a slide in equities, but fears of
over supply because of sharply rising borrowing needs of governments is likely to
tip the balance and to push yields higher. On the other hand, central banks with a
quantitative easing policy (Fed and BoE especially) might be very effective in
keeping the upward push in yields under control. Central banks will keep their tariffs
at the current low levels for quite a long time, which will also limit the upward drift in
bond yield.
US dollar to regain territory
Dollar to benefit in case of
US led recovery
The dollar has lost ground in recent months. The currency has fallen to $ 1.40 per
euro, which compares to $ 1.25 in March when the crisis culminated. With tensions
in markets abating, the ‘safe haven’ flows – which had underpinned the dollar –
reversed. All this is a little paradoxical, since the US is at the very heart of the crisis.
The slide means that the greenback has become even more undervalued versus
the euro. According to our purchasing power model the currency should trade
hands at $ 1.10 per euro, given current real interest rates levels. Of course
deviation from the equilibrium rate can be large and long lasting, but at least it
gives us more confidence that the dollar will appreciate in case of a US led global
economic recovery.
The value of the dollar is very relevant for the European and in particular the Dutch
equity market, albeit that under recent extreme circumstances the correlation
between the two has turned negative. Normally, a rise or fall of the dollar increases
or decreases the value of companies’ net assets in the US or other dollar related
areas (translation effect). Furthermore a rise or fall of the dollar improves or
worsens the international competitiveness of companies that export to US dollar
markets (economic effect).
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Page 8/28
DEPRESSION SCENARIO
New lows for equities
Equities to slide in case of
depression scenario
In this scenario the US consumer starts to rein in spending again. The tidal wave of
dismissals seems over, but wage growth is definitely decelerating, a development
that will continue under the influence of high and still rising unemployment.
Furthermore, the rise in gasoline prices (+50% since last December) has affected
Americans’ room to spend and on top of that homeowners are threatened by the
recent sharp rise in mortgage rates. It is an unpleasant thought here that the US
government will not be able to boost disposable incomes again through fiscal
measures given its precarious financial situation. The economy will slip slide away,
with nasty consequences for the banking sector. A second round of depreciations
will follow and all problems that were earlier masked (also as a result of recently
changed FASB regulations) will come to the fore. After that the deflation phase will
set in in earnest with surging unemployment (from already elevated levels), huge
wage concessions and a decline in prices, including asset prices. Such a scenario
is highly unfavourable for equities. Profitability will come under extreme pressure
since companies’ cost reductions will not keep up with the collapse in sales.
Furthermore, the equity risk premiums will rise since there is large uncertainty about
earnings in the future. As result the equity markets will head for much lower levels.
The lows of last March will be broken.
Even government bonds not to be trusted
Even government bonds not
safe because of eroding tax
base in case of depression
scenario
In these kind of circumstances, government bonds seems to be the preferable
asset class. It should be born in mind however that in case of deflation, the weight
of the real debt burdens goes up. Furthermore, contrary to the Depression in the
1930s governments now have to cope with huge debts and an eroding tax base.
Although alternative debt is hard to find (the private sector is reducing debt levels in
order to survive), there is risk that the government will default or pay back with
hastily printed (and therefore valueless) money. Before this happens investors may
have already dumped the government paper with collapsing bond prices as a result.
So investors will be confronted with a very bearish equity market and a very bearish
bond market at the same time.
Dollar structurally lower
Investors may shun dollar in
case of depression scenario
With the US economy at the epicenter of the global depression, it is very difficult to
see that the dollar will benefit from ‘safe haven’ flows , like it did in the crisis so far.
The point is that the investing community may massively lose its confidence in the
role of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and that big surplus countries may
shun the currency. In that case the greenback will move to a structurally lower level.
Chances of depression scenario We have good reason to assume that the above mentioned course of events will
are small, but is worthwhile to be not take place, but is worthwhile to be prepared, since the depression scenario is
not totally unrealistic.
prepared
Crucial will be whether the petering out of the fiscal stimulus will be compensated
by increasing sustainable spending in the private sector. Furthermore, the gradual
recovery of the financial sector should continue.
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Page 9/28
Overview of forecast of main economic variable
Forecast of main macro-economic variables
USD interest rates (%)
3-mth*
10-yr**
Q3 '09
0.50
3.90
Q4 '09
0.50
3.80
Q1 '10
0.50
3.70
Q2 '10
0.50
3.80
EUR interest rates
3-mth*
10-yr** (Germany)
1.10
3.80
1.20
3.80
1.20
3.70
1.20
3.70
YEN interest rates (%)
3-mth*
10-yr**
0.50
1.70
0.50
1.70
0.50
1.70
0.50
1.80
GBP interest rates (%)
3-mth*
10-yr**
1.00
3.90
0.90
3.80
0.90
3.80
0.90
3.80
US-DOLLAR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
1.35
100
1.35
100
1.35
100
1.35
100
YEN
EUR/YEN
135.00
135.00
135.00
135.00
GBP
EUR/GBP
0.850
0.830
0.850
0.860
Oil
Brent (Crude)
70.00
70.00
75.00
75.00
Source: SNS Securities. ESN
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Page 10/28
Introducing our Defensive selection
Given the continued uncertainty we felt the necessity to focus on companies
with truly defensive qualities in this category. This is mainly because of the
higher than usual uncertainty about the length and depth of the current
recession, which is due to the credit crisis and its effects on the broader
economy. If there are no signs of a recovery in Q409, the investor is better of
owning defensive large caps such as those we have selected. Especially as
their valuation is also rather attractive in terms of EV/EBITDA, dividend yield
and FCF yield. Besides the more traditional defensive companies Ahold and
Royal Dutch Shell, we have included biotech company Crucell because of its
extremely low correlation with macro-economic developments.
Ahold – Perfect Pairings
Ahold has successfully implemented its volume-driven growth model in the
Netherlands and also ‘exported’ it to the US. The results in the Netherlands
have been very impressive in recent years and the signs from the US are
encouraging as well with earnings coming in above market expectations for
three quarters is a row. As the recovery in the US continues, we forecast the
group to grow EBIT at a compound annual growth rate of 8% between 2008
and 2011. Ahold trades at 11x 2009e earnings and 5x 2009e EV/EBITDA,
which is below peers. We rate the shares Buy with a target price of EUR
11.00.
Crucell – Is looking sturdy
Crucell is a company which is not affected by the current economic downturn.
Crucell’s share price is in an uplift whereby the share price has increased
from EUR 10.89 to EUR 15.50 over the last six months. For the first time in
its existence the company announced a net profit for FY08. For FY09 we
estimate a further growth in total revenue of 20% and we expect a net profit
of EUR 36m, compared to EUR 31.3m FY08. The financial data show that
the company is very capable of continuing independently. This strengthens
the negotiation position of Crucell in any possible take over talks with
pharmaceutical companies. In our opinion Crucell’s share price is still
undervalued by 45%, therefore we have a buy recommendation with a target
price of EUR 22.50.
Royal Ducth Shell – Positioning for the long term
With Royal Dutch Shell we chose for a share with defensive characteristics,
as well as recovery potential now the oil price is hovering around the USD 70
per barrel. With 68% of FY08 profits the company is leveraged to Exploration
and Production, which we believe is positive now the oil price is moving up
again. Cash generation remains strong enabling a steady dividend growth
per share. Lastly we believe shares of the European oil majors have room to
catch up with the rest of the market, which counts in particular for the Royal
Dutch shares.
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Page 11/28
Introducing our Recovery selection
As we have mentioned in our introduction, our macro-economists are of the
opinion that the first signs of a recovery may surface in Q409 or H110 but
that there is more than unusual uncertainty. Assuming that equity markets
will react with a lead time of some 3 to 6 months, as they have done in the
past, high beta stocks and early cyclical stocks are expected to show a
strong performance in H209. We also believe that the first signs of a
recovery will become visible in the US, which is partly why we have chosen
Aegon as it has a high exposure to the US market and is a high beta stock.
We have also looked at cyclical stocks that have not reacted as strongly as
some of their peers, which is why we have chosen USG People. And if the
market believes in a recovery, demand for energy will push up the price of
oil, which will result in a positive development of SBM Offshore’s shares.
AEGON – Recovery frontrunner
AEGON’s share price has suffered severely from the recession until 9
March, largely caused by raising questions about solvency, impairments and
the overall situation on financial markets. However, solvency has improved
by a EUR 3bn Dutch State injection in 4Q08, financial markets have
improved significantly and credit spreads have tightened. We believe that
AEGON will benefit in an early stage from an economic recovery, given its
large exposure to the US. However, there is still low visibility and in
combination with elevated levels of impairments, we rate AEGON Hold.
Based on a P/B FY10 ratio of 0.9x and including a historical discount of 13%,
we have a target price of EUR 4.60.
SBM Offshore – Market momentum is improving again
SBM surprised the market negatively over the past 12 months reporting cost
over runs on several of there turnkey projects, which in fact represents only a
small part of the enterprise value (~12%) as most value comes from the
lease activities with blue chip oil companies. We see the number of deep sea
projects increasing again, helped by the recovered oil price and the need to
for oil companies to improve the recovery rate. We believe the risk of further
cost overruns is limited. SBM is a good recovery candidate on the back of
improving market demand and regaining investor confidence. We have a
Buy recommendation on the company with a price target of EUR 16.50.
USG People – The laggard
USG People is now our favourite recovery play within the Dutch staffing peer
group. The company lagged its major Dutch staffing peers by c. one third,
since the market recovery in March. We consider this not justified. With a
further stabilization of its major markets (the Netherlands and Belgium), the
risk on bank covenant breaching and/or a share issue will diminish, providing
an extra catalyst for the share price. We believe that stabilizing markets are
already (more than) fully-priced in in Randstad’s share price, while this is not
the case in USG People’s share price. The company’s EV/EBITDA multiple
of 11 times for FY10 equals Randstad’s multiple despite USG People’s more
depressed earnings. We have an Accumulate recommendation with a price
target of EUR 11.
[email protected]
Page 12/28
Introducing our GARP selection
Although the recession is expected to impact most industries, there are still
companies that are active in markets where growth (top line or profitability)
can be achieved or which are very resilient in terms of profitability. Either
because of the characteristics of the markets or because their strategy and
their position in the value chain allow them to offset volume declines by price
increases. It may also be the case that companies profit from the stimuli
packages that governments have out in place (Arcadis) or from more
immediate developments such as in healthcare (Mediq). Unit4Agresso is
chosen because of its resilience in a downturn (no EBITDA impact) and its
undervaluation versus its peers.
ARCADIS– Well positioned
ARCADIS is well positioned to benefit from government sponsored economic
stimulus programs that are announced in the US and Europe as soon as
H209. Furthermore, the overall construction market in the US is signaling that
the slowdown is bottoming out. ARCADIS can profit from these trends,
through its gearing towards the US and its position early in the value chain. In
all, we expect that ARCADIS will be able to return to its growth path as soon
as 2011. We believe that this is not yet reflected in the share price. The share
trades below its average PE of 12.4 (historical average 14.5) and also
compared to peers and its DCF value, ARCADIS trades at a significant
discount.
Mediq – Looking forward again
Dutch pharmacy retailers were severely hit last year when health insurance
companies were allowed to reimburse only the cheapest generic drugs.
Further expansion of preference drugs by insurance companies are expected
only to some extend. We believe we have hit the bottom now and that the
way is up. Margins will improve in Mediq Pharmacy and the market will
continue to grow by 5-6% per annum due to aging of the society. We rate
Mediq as a Buy with a PT of EUR 12, with further upside in case of improving
margins.
Unit4 Agresso – A resilient growth stock
Unit4Agresso’s main application is Agresso, an ERP product that is very
flexible and can be adapted to organizational changes without requiring
expensive external consultants. As a result, the total cost of ownership
including the cost of changes (TCOC) is lower than those of competitors,
which has enabled and will continue to enable Unit4AGresso to win market
share. But Unit4Agresso is also very resilient in a downturn. More than 40%
of revenue is derived from maintenance contracts with a 99% renewal rate. In
addition, over 40% of the company’s revenue is derived from non-profit
organizations with stable IT budgets. Taking into account cost savings
programs, Unit4Agresso will be able to show EBITDA margins in FY09 that
are equal to those of FY08. Because of its growth profile, resilience and
because the company is undervalued versus peers, we rate the shares BUY
with a DCF based price target of EUR 16 per share.
[email protected]
Page 13/28
Introducing our Underperformer selection
This is the second time that we include a selection called Underperformer.
This category includes companies that will substantially underperform versus
peers in H209 (Akzo Nobel) or because its valuation is too high relative to
where we are in the economic cycle (Randstad). Our third selected company
(Philips) will cope with disappointing figures (compared to market
expectations) due to its late cyclical features in some activities and structural
market pressure in other activities which results in a slow earnings recovery.
Akzo Nobel – A cloudy summer for Decorative Paints
The 1Q09 results revealed a 16% volume decline in Decorative Paints which
was rather disappointing and does not bode well for the second and third
quarter. We expect the 2Q09 results to come in below consensus estimates.
Given the short term risks of further sales volume and operating margin
disappointments, we have a Reduce recommendation on the shares with a
price target of EUR 30 per share.
Philips – No quick recovery around the corner
We do not anticipate a quick rebound for Philips. Negative regulation
impacting Healthcare, the late cyclical nature of Lighting and structural
pressures at TV are likely to prevent a strong recovery within the next twelve
months, even in a scenario of economic recovery. On the positive side, the
balance sheet of Philips is strong, thanks to a prudent financing policy, and
the company is taken active measures to adjust the cost base. Based on
estimates for 2010, which already reflects a relatively solid recovery in
margins, Philips trades at EV/EBITDA of 6.0x. The average forward multiple
for Philips over the past years amounted to 5.4x. We therefore believe the
valuation is relatively demanding and implies downside risk for the shares.
We rate the shares Reduce with EUR 11 price target.
Randstad – The glass is half full
We expect HR services company Randstad to be an underperformer after its
excellent performance. The share price was up 125% since March driven by
better than expected macro economic data, particularly from the US.
Consequently, market sentiment turned from highly negative to very positive.
We believe that this major driver will diminish as macro expectations have
risen, making it more difficult to beat consensus and that consumer spending
in the US will have a lower impact, the major driver for the better than
expected macro data. Staffing markets appear to stabilize, but this is already
discounted for in the share price. Further share price increases should be
driven by staffing market recovery and we do not expect this to occur before
2010. We have a Reduce recommendation on Randstad with a price target
of EUR 20.
[email protected]
Page 14/28
Appendices
Historic Performance Overview
of SNS Top Picks
[email protected]
Page 15/28
Performance SNS Securities Top Picks 2003
STOCK PICKS
Aalberts
Accell
Acomo
Airspray
Amstelland MDC
BAM NBM
CVG
Draka
Frans Maas
Fugro
Gamma
Grolsch
Grontmij
Heijmans
ICT Automatisering
Imtech
Kasbank
Kendrion
Nedap
Nedcon
Nutreco
OPG
Ordina
Petroplus
Pinkroccade
Sligro
Stern
Stork
USG
Vopak
31-Dec-03
€20.53
€20.25
€2.26
€17.21
€6.16
€21.47
€13.35
€15.60
€24.75
€40.80
€38.00
€22.61
€22.50
€19.10
€11.30
€20.58
€15.30
€4.50
€19.70
€15.60
€21.78
€36.05
€9.41
€6.65
€9.50
€24.45
€32.46
€15.70
€16.57
€14.90
31-Dec-02
€14.80
€12.70
€2.35
€14.25
€4.32
€13.85
€12.80
€9.45
€19.99
€43.13
€26.80
€20.66
€18.45
€16.70
€6.80
€12.57
€16.50
€5.60
€12.80
€20.95
€17.79
€32.80
€5.64
€7.33
€5.33
€40.00
€24.84
€5.80
€8.45
€12.33
TOTAL PERFORMANCE
AEX
AMX
ASCX
337.65
357.54
343.03
322.73
317.80
264.02
Return
38.72%
59.45%
-3.83%
20.77%
42.59%
55.02%
4.30%
65.08%
23.81%
-5.40%
41.79%
9.44%
21.95%
14.37%
66.18%
63.72%
-7.27%
-19.64%
53.91%
-25.54%
22.43%
9.91%
66.84%
-9.28%
78.24%
-38.88%
30.68%
170.69%
96.09%
20.84%
Dividend 2002
€0.50
€0.95
€0.20
€0.50
€0.33
€1.55
€1.25
€0.00
€0.80
€1.85
€1.80
€0.76
€1.41
€1.48
€0.40
€1.07
€2.00
€0.25
€0.67
€1.00
€0.67
€1.40
€0.09
€0.25
€0.05
€1.50
€1.40
€0.45
€0.50
€0.50
Div. return
3.38%
7.48%
8.51%
3.51%
7.64%
11.19%
9.77%
0.00%
4.00%
4.29%
6.72%
3.68%
7.64%
8.86%
5.88%
8.51%
12.12%
4.46%
5.23%
4.77%
3.77%
4.27%
1.60%
3.41%
0.94%
3.75%
5.64%
7.76%
5.92%
4.06%
Total Return
42.09%
66.93%
4.68%
24.28%
50.23%
66.21%
14.06%
65.08%
27.81%
-1.11%
48.51%
13.12%
29.59%
23.23%
72.06%
72.24%
4.85%
-15.18%
59.14%
-20.76%
26.19%
14.18%
68.44%
-5.87%
79.17%
-35.13%
36.31%
178.45%
102.01%
24.90%
32.23%
5.62%
37.86%
4.62%
12.50%
29.93%
3.70%
3.63%
8.32%
18.52%
Source: Bloomberg, SNS Securities Research
[email protected]
Page 16/28
INVESTMENT STYLES
STABLE GROWTH (GARP
Aalberts
Airspray
Hunter Douglas
Imtech
Sligro
31-Dec-04
€35.70
€18.85
€39.25
€25.95
€36.30
31-Dec-03
€20.53
€17.21
€37.11
€20.58
€24.45
Div. return
2.73%
3.66%
3.50%
5.20%
3.68%
3.75%
Div. return
7.22%
4.61%
5.59%
5.00%
4.14%
5.31%
total return
76.62%
13.19%
9.27%
31.29%
52.15%
36.50%
Total Return
79.46%
36.79%
54.20%
-0.92%
65.61%
47.03%
BAM Groep
CSM
Eriks
Gamma
Stork
31-Dec-04
€36.98
€22.92
€42.50
€35.75
€25.35
31-Dec-03
€21.47
€17.34
€28.60
€38.00
€15.70
ASM International
Ordina
Twentsche Kabel
Vedior
Wegener
31-Dec-04
€12.15
€9.23
€30.00
€11.99
€9.45
Dividend 2003
€0.00
€0.09
€1.00
€0.16
€0.00
Div. return
0.00%
0.96%
5.59%
1.29%
0.00%
1.57%
Total Return
-25.23%
-0.96%
73.18%
-2.02%
36.96%
16.39%
Brunel
Nedcon
PinkRoccade
SNT
Stern
Return
83.67%
23.08%
57.89%
17.65%
-17.08%
33.04%
Dividend 2003
€0.10
€0.00
€0.13
€0.00
€1.40
Div. return
2.04%
0.00%
1.37%
0.00%
4.31%
1.54%
Total Return
85.71%
23.08%
59.26%
17.65%
-12.77%
34.59%
Ballast Nedam
Crucell
Grontmij
Kendrion
Ten Cate
Dividend 2003
€0.00
€0.00
€0.76
€0.00
€1.70
GROUP PERFORMANCE
Return
159.17%
110.42%
77.33%
-54.34%
50.18%
68.55%
Div. return
0.00%
0.00%
3.38%
0.00%
4.71%
1.62%
Total Return
159.17%
110.42%
80.71%
-54.34%
54.89%
70.17%
TOTAL PERFORMANCE
38.18%
2.76%
40.93%
3.09%
14.89%
16.61%
3.70%
3.63%
6.79%
18.52%
GROUP PERFORMANCE
VALUE
Return
73.89%
9.53%
5.77%
26.09%
48.47%
32.75%
Return
72.24%
32.18%
48.60%
-5.92%
61.46%
41.71%
Dividend 2003
€0.56
€0.63
€1.30
€1.07
€0.90
31-Dec-03
€16.25
€9.41
€17.90
€12.40
€6.90
Return
-25.23%
-1.91%
67.60%
-3.31%
36.96%
14.82%
31-Dec-04
€9.00
€19.20
€15.00
€14.00
€26.95
31-Dec-03
€4.90
€15.60
€9.50
€11.90
€32.50
31-Dec-04
€12.44
€10.10
€39.90
€1.12
€54.20
31-Dec-03
€4.80
€4.80
€22.50
€2.45
€36.09
GROUP PERFORMANCE
RECOVERY
GROUP PERFORMANCE
CORPORATE ACTION
GROUP PERFORMANCE
SPECIAL ITEMS
AEX
AMX
348.08
410.77
400.00
337.65
357.54
343.03
Dividend 2003
€1.55
€0.80
€1.60
€1.90
€0.65
[email protected]
Page 17/28
INVESTMENT STYLES
STABLE GROWTH (GARP)
Athlon
Hunter Douglas
Imtech
Van Lanschot
31-Dec-05
€22.49
€45.98
€27.50
€64.90
31-Dec-04
€19.40
€39.25
€25.95
€48.00
Return
15.93%
17.15%
5.97%
35.21%
18.56%
Dividend 2004
€0.71
€1.35
€1.07
€1.00
Div. return
3.66%
3.44%
4.12%
2.08%
3.33%
Total Return
19.59%
20.59%
10.10%
37.29%
21.89%
Gamma
Grontmij
Vopak
Wessanen
31-Dec-05
€35.30
€59.55
€25.60
€12.81
31-Dec-04
€35.75
€39.90
€15.67
€9.45
Return
-1.26%
49.25%
63.37%
35.56%
36.73%
Dividend 2004
€1.90
€1.76
€0.50
€0.58
Div. return
5.31%
4.41%
3.19%
6.14%
4.76%
Total Return
4.06%
53.66%
66.56%
41.69%
41.49%
Beter Bed
Buhrmann
ICT
USG
31-Dec-05
€31.60
€12.43
€14.83
€35.80
31-Dec-04
€14.24
€6.77
€9.71
€17.20
Return
121.91%
83.60%
52.73%
108.14%
91.60%
Dividend 2004
€0.75
€0.14
€0.54
€0.40
Div. return
5.27%
2.07%
5.56%
2.33%
3.81%
Total Return
127.18%
85.67%
58.29%
110.47%
95.40%
Brunel
CSM
Jetix Europe
Versatel
31-Dec-05
€17.23
€23.03
€15.80
€0.90
31-Dec-04
€9.00
€22.92
€14.03
€0.79
Return
91.44%
0.48%
12.62%
14.07%
29.65%
Dividend 2004
€0.15
€0.80
€0.00
€0.00
Div. return
1.67%
3.49%
0.00%
0.00%
1.29%
Total Return
93.11%
3.97%
12.62%
14.07%
30.94%
Boskalis
Nedap
OPG
SBM Offshore
31-Dec-05
€56.25
€27.30
€60.30
€68.25
31-Dec-04
€24.90
€28.37
€43.00
€46.74
Dividend 2004
€0.75
€1.43
€1.45
€1.45
GROUP PERFORMANCE
Return
125.90%
-3.77%
40.23%
46.02%
52.10%
Div. return
0.00%
5.04%
3.37%
3.10%
2.88%
Total Return
125.90%
1.27%
43.60%
49.12%
54.98%
TOTAL PERFORMANCE
45.73%
3.21%
48.94%
GROUP PERFORMANCE
VALUE
GROUP PERFORMANCE
CYCLICAL UPSWING
GROUP PERFORMANCE
CORPORATE ACTION
GROUP PERFORMANCE
THEME PLAYS
AEX
AMX
ASCX
436.78
520.74
531.40
348.08
410.77
400.00
25.48%
26.77%
32.85%
25.48%
18.52%
[email protected]
Page 18/28
INVESTMENT STYLES
ICT
Imtech
Reed Elsevier
30-Jun-06
€18.45
€37.80
€11.76
31-Dec-05
€14.83
€27.50
€11.80
Return
24.41%
37.45%
-0.34%
20.51%
Dividend H1
€0.64
€1.07
€0.27
Div. return
4.32%
3.89%
2.26%
3.49%
Total Return
28.73%
41.35%
1.92%
24.00%
Eriks
ING
Stork
30-Jun-06
€42.20
€30.73
€41.85
31-Dec-05
€29.90
€29.30
€32.09
Return
41.14%
4.88%
30.41%
25.48%
Dividend H1
€1.40
€0.64
€1.10
Div. return
4.68%
2.18%
3.43%
3.43%
Total Return
45.82%
7.06%
33.84%
28.91%
Hagemeyer
LogicaCMG
Vedior
30-Jun-06
€3.61
€2.54
€16.42
31-Dec-05
€2.74
€2.59
€12.52
Return
31.75%
-1.93%
31.15%
20.32%
Dividend H1
€0.00
€0.05
€0.25
Div. return
0.00%
1.82%
2.00%
1.27%
Total Return
31.75%
-0.11%
33.15%
21.60%
ASM International
Philips
TNT
30-Jun-06
€12.19
€24.43
€27.98
31-Dec-05
€14.18
€26.25
€26.40
Return
-14.03%
-6.93%
5.98%
-4.99%
Dividend H1
€0.00
€0.44
€0.41
Div. return
0.00%
1.68%
1.55%
1.08%
Total Return
-14.03%
-5.26%
7.54%
-3.92%
BAM Groep
OPG
Wessanen
30-Jun-06
€15.54
€68.00
€10.64
31-Dec-05
€14.18
€60.30
€12.81
Dividend H1
€0.40
€1.20
€0.45
GROUP PERFORMANCE
Return
9.59%
12.77%
-16.94%
1.81%
Div. return
0.00%
1.99%
3.51%
1.83%
Total Return
9.59%
14.76%
-13.43%
3.64%
TOTAL PERFORMANCE
12.62%
2.22%
14.85%
GROUP PERFORMANCE
VALUE
GROUP PERFORMANCE
CYCLICAL UPSWING
GROUP PERFORMANCE
CORPORATE ACTION
GROUP PERFORMANCE
THEME PLAYS
AEX
AMX
ASCX
AAX
440.25
586.85
610.62
662.10
436.78
520.74
531.40
643.05
0.79%
12.70%
14.91%
2.96%
[email protected]
Page 19/28
Performance SNS Securities Top Picks 2006- A midyear update
INVESTMENT STYLES
ICT
Imtech
SBM Offshore
30-Nov-06
€14.64
€43.93
€24.52
30-Jun-06
€18.45
€37.80
€20.85
Return
-20.65%
16.22%
17.60%
4.39%
Dividend H2
€0.00
€0.00
€0.00
Div. return
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Total Return
-20.65%
16.22%
17.60%
4.39%
Fortis
Gamma
Wolters Kluwer
30-Nov-06
€30.78
€44.90
€21.15
30-Jun-06
€26.67
€41.50
€18.47
Return
15.41%
8.19%
14.51%
12.70%
Dividend H2
€0.58
€0.00
€0.00
Div. return
2.17%
0.00%
0.00%
0.72%
Total Return
17.59%
8.19%
14.51%
13.43%
Oce
Wessanen
Vedior
30-Nov-06
€12.59
€10.01
€14.41
30-Jun-06
€11.48
€10.64
€16.42
Return
9.67%
-5.92%
-12.24%
-2.83%
Dividend H2
€0.15
€0.20
€0.00
Div. return
1.31%
1.88%
0.00%
1.06%
Total Return
10.98%
-4.04%
-12.24%
-1.77%
Akzo
Philips
TNT
30-Nov-06
€43.29
€28.09
€31.77
30-Jun-06
€42.16
€24.43
€27.98
Return
2.68%
14.98%
13.55%
10.40%
Dividend H2
€0.30
€0.00
€0.26
Div. return
0.71%
0.00%
0.93%
0.55%
Total Return
3.39%
14.98%
14.47%
10.95%
BAM Groep
Crucell
Tele Atlas
30-Nov-06
€13.73
€18.19
€14.94
30-Jun-06
€15.54
€16.26
€16.50
Dividend H2
€0.00
€0.00
€0.00
GROUP PERFORMANCE
Return
-11.65%
11.87%
-9.45%
-3.08%
Div. return
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Total Return
-11.65%
11.87%
-9.45%
-3.08%
TOTAL PERFORMANCE
4.32%
0.47%
4.78%
GROUP PERFORMANCE
VALUE
GROUP PERFORMANCE
CYCLICAL UPSWING
GROUP PERFORMANCE
CORPORATE ACTION
GROUP PERFORMANCE
THEME PLAYS
AEX
AMX
ASCX
AAX
477.67
631.27
658.12
720.64
440.25
586.85
610.62
662.10
8.50%
7.57%
7.78%
8.84%
[email protected]
Page 20/28
INVESTMENT STYLES
Accell
Beter Bed
Eriks Group
Ordina
5-Jun-07
€31.45
€26.95
€63.30
€16.61
30-Nov-06
€25.55
€17.25
€50.50
€15.94
Return
23.09%
56.23%
25.35%
4.20%
27.22%
Dividend H1
€0.95
€0.65
€1.35
€0.20
Div. return
3.72%
3.77%
2.67%
1.25%
2.85%
Total Return
26.81%
60.00%
28.02%
5.46%
30.07%
ABN Amro
DSM
Unilever
5-Jun-07
€35.79
€38.30
€22.01
30-Nov-06
€22.71
€35.99
€19.93
Return
57.60%
6.42%
10.44%
24.82%
Dividend H1
€0.60
€0.67
€0.47
Div. return
2.64%
1.86%
2.36%
2.29%
Total Return
60.24%
8.28%
12.79%
27.10%
CORPORATE AND/OR RESTRUCTURING ACTION
Gamma
Kendrion
Nutreco
Wegener
GROUP PERFORMANCE
5-Jun-07
€65.82
€21.50
€56.04
€18.00
30-Nov-06
€44.90
€19.10
€46.74
€10.39
Return
46.59%
12.57%
19.90%
73.24%
38.07%
Dividend H1
€2.00
€0.00
€1.30
€0.19
Div. return
4.45%
0.00%
2.78%
1.83%
2.27%
Total Return
51.05%
12.57%
22.68%
75.07%
28.76%
THEME PLAYS
5-Jun-07
€63.10
€16.87
€5.65
€27.31
30-Nov-06
€43.70
€18.19
€5.05
€24.52
Dividend H1
€1.00
€0.00
€0.00
€0.57
GROUP PERFORMANCE
Return
44.39%
-7.26%
11.88%
11.38%
15.10%
Div. return
2.29%
0.00%
0.00%
2.32%
1.15%
Total Return
46.68%
-7.26%
11.88%
13.70%
17.10%
TOTAL PERFORMANCE
26.40%
2.13%
28.53%
GROUP PERFORMANCE
VALUE
GROUP PERFORMANCE
ARCADIS
Crucell
LBI
SBM Offshore
544.75
749.37
836.06
841.18
AEX
AMX
ASCX
AAX
477.67
631.27
658.12
720.64
14.04%
18.71%
27.04%
16.73%
[email protected]
Page 21/28
INVESTMENT STYLES
Grontmij
USG People
Wolters Kluwer
2-Jan-08
€24.05
€18.79
€22.11
5-Jun-07
€32.62
€34.29
€23.20
Return
-26.27%
-45.20%
-4.70%
-25.39%
Dividend H2
€0.00
€0.00
€0.00
Div. return
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Total Return
-26.27%
-45.20%
-4.70%
-25.39%
SBM Offshore
TNT
Wessanen
2-Jan-08
€21.22
€27.92
€10.97
5-Jun-07
€27.31
€32.69
€12.14
Return
-22.30%
-14.59%
-9.64%
-15.51%
Dividend H2
€0.00
€0.30
€0.25
Div. return
0.00%
0.92%
2.06%
0.99%
Total Return
-22.30%
-13.67%
-7.58%
-14.52%
CORPORATE ACTION PLAYS
Gamma
KPN
Nutreco
GROUP PERFORMANCE
2-Jan-08
€54.80
€12.43
€40.08
5-Jun-07
€65.82
€12.55
€56.04
Return
-16.74%
-0.96%
-28.48%
-15.39%
Dividend H2
€0.00
€0.18
€0.35
Div. return
0.00%
1.43%
0.62%
0.69%
Total Return
-16.74%
0.48%
-27.86%
-14.71%
THEME PLAYS
2-Jan-08
€306.00
€14.49
€24.68
5-Jun-07
€404.50
€15.85
€31.45
Dividend H2
€0.00
€0.00
€0.00
GROUP PERFORMANCE
Return
-24.35%
-8.58%
-21.53%
-18.15%
Div. return
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Total Return
-24.35%
-8.58%
-21.53%
-16.47%
TOTAL PERFORMANCE
-18.61%
0.42%
-18.19%
GROUP PERFORMANCE
VALUE
GROUP PERFORMANCE
Genmab
Innoconcepts
Accell
AEX
AMX
ASCX
AAX
509.77
655.48
660.37
777.06
544.75
749.37
836.06
841.18
-6.42%
-12.53%
-21.01%
-7.62%
[email protected]
Page 22/28
INVESTMENT STYLES
DEFENSIVE/VALUE
Unilever
KPN Telecom
TNT
11-Dec-08
17.43
10.707
14.56
2-Jan-08
€24.77
€12.43
€27.92
Return
-29.63%
-13.86%
-47.85%
Dividend H1
€0.50
€0.36
€0.55
Div. return
2.02%
2.90%
1.97%
Total Return
-27.61%
-10.97%
-45.88%
DSM
Macintosh
InnoConcepts
11-Dec-08
16.76
7.15
4.44
2-Jan-08
€32.40
€22.95
€14.49
Return
-48.27%
-68.85%
-69.36%
Dividend H1
€0.87
€1.00
€0.00
Div. return
2.69%
4.36%
0.00%
Total Return
-45.59%
-64.49%
-69.36%
Corporate Express
Wessanen
Philips Electronics
11-Dec-08
9.25
4.43
13.925
2-Jan-08
€5.15
€10.97
€28.94
Return
79.61%
-59.62%
-51.88%
Dividend H1
€0.21
€0.40
€0.70
Div. return
4.08%
3.65%
2.42%
Total Return
83.69%
-55.97%
-49.46%
THEME PLAYS
11-Dec-08
16.97
22.99
22.62
2-Jan-08
€24.68
€40.08
€52.80
Return
-31.24%
-42.64%
-57.16%
Dividend H1
€1.25
€1.29
€1.25
Div. return
5.06%
3.22%
2.37%
Total Return
-26.18%
-39.42%
-54.79%
2.89%
-33.84%
GARP
Accell
Nutreco
Fugro
-36.73%
TOTAL PERFORMANCE
AEX
AMX
ASCX
AAX
256.51
315.99
316.05
395.34
509.77
655.48
660.37
777.06
-49.68%
-51.79%
-52.14%
-49.12%
[email protected]
Page 23/28
Performance SNS Securities Top picks 2008 (June 2008 - December 2008)
INVESTMENT STYLES
DEFENSIVE/VALUE
10-Dec-08
€19.99
€10.88
24-Jun-08
€25.18
€10.84
Return
-20.61%
0.41%
Dividend H1
€0.51
€0.20
Div. return
2.03%
1.85%
Total Return
-18.59%
2.25%
€14.84
€23.03
-35.56%
€0.34
1.48%
-34.09%
Ahold
Nutreco
Unilever
10-Dec-08
€8.69
€23.00
€17.72
24-Jun-08
€8.79
€42.11
€18.76
Return
-1.14%
-45.38%
-5.54%
Dividend H1
€0.00
€0.40
€0.00
Div. return
0.00%
0.95%
0.00%
Total Return
-1.14%
-44.43%
-5.54%
Gamma
10-Dec-08
€9.05
24-Jun-08
€38.20
Return
-76.31%
Dividend H1
€0.00
Div. return
0.00%
Total Return
-76.31%
€4.46
€3.70
€7.45
€8.19
-40.13%
-54.82%
€0.20
€0.15
2.68%
1.83%
-37.45%
-52.99%
10-Dec-08
€21.94
€5.22
24-Jun-08
€52.80
€19.25
Return
-58.45%
-72.88%
Dividend H1
€0.00
€0.00
Div. return
0.00%
0.00%
Total Return
-58.45%
-72.88%
€2.60
€6.05
-57.02%
€0.12
1.98%
-55.04%
1.07%
-37.89%
Royal Dutch
KPN Telecom
TNT
GARP
Wessanen
Oce
THEME PLAYS
Fugro
TomTom
Wavin
-38.95%
TOTAL PERFORMANCE
AEX
AMX
ASCX
AAX
256.15
314.14
437.38
587.34
-41.44%
-46.51%
312.17
395.34
552.09
680.31
-43.46%
-41.89%
[email protected]
Page 24/28
Performance SNS Securities Top picks 2009 (Dec 10 2008 - June 2009)
INVESTMENT STYLES
DEFENSIVE/VALUE
10-Jun-09
€24.40
€9.17
10-Dec-08
€16.84
€10.88
Return
44.86%
-15.75%
Dividend H1
€0.80
€0.40
Div. return
4.75%
3.68%
Total Return
49.61%
-12.07%
€12.66
€13.83
-8.46%
€0.65
4.70%
-3.76%
10-Jun-09
€8.34
10-Dec-08
€8.69
Return
-4.02%
Dividend H1
€0.18
Div. return
2.07%
Total Return
-1.94%
€9.09
€30.99
€5.27
€23.00
72.49%
34.74%
€0.21
€1.03
3.98%
4.48%
76.47%
39.22%
ASML
Randstad
TomTom
10-Jun-09
€15.14
€21.76
€5.86
10-Dec-08
€12.34
€14.57
€5.22
Return
22.69%
49.31%
12.26%
Dividend H1
€0.20
€0.00
€0.00
Div. return
1.62%
0.00%
0.00%
Total Return
24.31%
49.31%
12.26%
Boskalis
Logica
10-Jun-09
€16.34
€0.87
10-Dec-08
€16.74
€0.78
Return
2.42%
-11.54%
Dividend H1
€1.19
€0.01
Div. return
-7.11%
-0.85%
Total Return
-4.69%
-12.38%
Unilever
€17.84
€17.72
-0.65%
€0.51
-2.88%
-3.53%
DSM
KPN Telecom
Wolters Kluwer
GARP
Ahold
Binck
Nutreco
Recovery
Underperformers
19.87%
TOTAL PERFORMANCE
AEX
AMX
ASCX
AAX
266.96
374.63
256.15
314.14
4.22%
19.26%
399.15
422.64
312.17
395.34
27.86%
6.91%
1.20%
[email protected]
Page 25/28
[email protected]
Page 26/28
This report has been prepared by SNS Securities Research, which is part of SNS Securities N.V., a subsidiary of SNS Bank N.V.
SNS Bank belongs to SNS REAAL N.V.
SNS Securities is registered with AFM, the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets.
Analyst certification
The analyst or analysts who prepared this report hereby certifies or certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately
reflect his, her or their personal views about all of the subject companies and securities in this report and (2) no part of his, her or
their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
The analyst or analysts responsible for preparing this research report receives compensation that is based upon various factors
including the profitability of SNS Securities, which includes investment banking activities.
Methodology, rating system and distribution of ratings
Our forecasts regarding the company's profit and loss account, balance sheet and/or cash flow statement are based on subjective
views of relevant future company specific developments and market developments. Important variables are among others expected
market growth, company's strategy and competitive position. In addition, company guidance is taken into account. Price targets and
opinions in this report are based on a combination of discounted cash flow analysis, peer group analysis and/or historical valuation
analysis, whereas the previously mentioned forecasts are used as input for these analyses. In addition industrial knowledge,
company specific elements and/or market technical elements could play an important role to determine our price targets and
opinions.
SNS Securities’ policy is to update research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the
sector or the market that may have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein.
The rating depends on the expected absolute share price performance over the next 12 months, reflecting the difference between
the price target and the current share price. Since the research report contains more complete information concerning the analyst’s
views, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings
(or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor’s decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on
among others individual circumstances.
For information on our rating distribution we would like to refer to our website www.snssecurities.nl
Rating
Expected absolute share
price performance
Buy
>+20%
Accumulate
Hold
0% to +10%
Reduce -10% to 0%
Sell
<-10%
Time
horizon
12 months
+10% to +20%
12 months
12 months
12 months
12 months
Other disclosures
SNS Securities has established procedures to prevent conflict of interest and to ensure the provision of high quality research based
on research objectivity and independence.
All sources in this report are assumed to be reliable, unless otherwise stated.
Please see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication. Price-related data is calculated using the closing
price of the latest trading day before date of publication.
This report has been prepared by SNS Securities N.V. The information, tools and material presented in this report are provided to
you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of
the securities described herein. SNS Securities N.V. and their affiliates may effect transactions in the securities described herein for
their own account or for the account of others, may have positions with the issuer thereof, or any of its affiliates, or may perform or
seek to perform securities, investment banking or other services for such issuer or its affiliates. This research report may not be
photocopied, electronically redistributed or otherwise reproduced without the prior permission of SNS Securities N.V.
Our sales people, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients
and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. Our asset
management department, our proprietary trading desk may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the
recommendations or views expressed in this research.
Our research is disseminated primarily electronically, and, in some cases, in printed form. Electronic research is simultaneously
available to all clients.
© SNS Securities N.V.
[email protected]
Page 27/28
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managing director
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This publication is a summary.

Transcription

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