MIGRATORY PATTERNS AND DIFFERENTIAL VULNERABILITY AS

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MIGRATORY PATTERNS AND DIFFERENTIAL VULNERABILITY AS
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY: CASE STUDIES OF
RURAL YOUTH OUTMIGRATION IN ETHIOPIA
Charles Teller, Teshome Desta, Dula Etana & Yordanos Seifu
IUSSP Seminar on Dem. Vulnerability to Natural Disasters in the
Context of Climate Change Adaptation
23-25 April 2014, Kao Lak, Thailand
Background
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Declining but still high food insecurity (36% of households), poverty and
functional illiteracy in rural areas
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Small and declining farm land per HH
Limited off-farm employment opportunities in rural areas under climate
variability; low technology and institutional capacity
Poor communication and road infrastructure for info. networking
Temporary and permanent migration as an increasing demographic
response to population-resource imbalance and perceived urban
educational and job opportunities
New Inter-Censal Demo. Survey (2012) shows high net outmigration from
the Northern two Regions
Ethiopian NAPA does not consider population variables among the 37
potential climate change adaptation options identified
Most of the 25 million youth population concentrated in drought-prone or
densely populated areas are subject to increasing climate variability
Ethiopian Literature on Migration,
Vulnerability & Drought/Climate Var.
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Dessalegn Rahmato- Dynamics of rural poverty, South, 1992
Markos Ezra-Demog. responses to environmental degradation in
drought-prone areas of NE, 1999
AAU/Brown- Mig., gender, health, dev’t; 5 regions 2000
DPPC/USAID- Vulnerability profiles, 16 districts in 4 regions, 19982002
IFPRI/AAU/Oxford- Drought & migration in 15 communities, Eth. Rural
HH Survey, 1999-2009
Jimma/Brown- Longitudinal Family Survey of Youth, 2005-2008
World Bank- Urban Migration Study, 2008
IOM- Irregular Migration from E. AFR & Horn to S. Afr., 2009
EEA/AAU- Dem. responses and youth migration, 3 regions, 2011
Objectives
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Broad objective:
Examine the local context and role of different types of internal and
international migration as pathways to strengthen resilience and
adaptation to drought, climate variability and pop. pressure;
FOCUS on rural youth as key to harnessing demographic dividend
Research questions
i.
What is the demographic vulnerability of youth migrants from different
demographic and climatic areas around Ethiopia?
ii.
What are the risks, consequences and opportunities of out-migration as
part of the adaptation process?
iii.
What is the role on international youth migration in long term strategy of
adaptation to climate change?
iv.
Can youth outmigration contribute significantly to the potential
demographic dividend, with delayed transitions to childbearing?
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Case Studies in 4 different agroclimatic zones of Ethiopia
1.
2.
3.
4.
Drought-prone, rugged: Wolaita (S.West)
Mountainous, densely populated & deforested:
West Gojjam (N.West)
Densely-populated: Hadiya/Kembata (S.Cent.)
Non-drought-prone, subsistence: Arjo (West)
BEWARE OF GROSS GENERALIZATIONS IN ETHIOPIA!
Four case study areas in the semi-temperate and
temperate highlands of Ethiopia
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Context: High Population Density (400-800/Sq Mi) in Four
Outmigration Zones-W. Gojjam, Wolaita and Hadiya & Kembata
CASES 1 & 2: Explicit probing on adaptation to shocks/hazards
(Eg., through Focus Groups, W. Gojjam)
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Higher % of HHs with all 3 types of migrants
from chronically drought-prone Wolaita
60
50
40
Short-term (last 12 mo.)
Planning (next 12 mo.)
Permanent (last 10 yrs)
30
20
10
0
W. Gojjam
Woleitta
Demographically, Permanent Migrant Households are
older and more female-headed than non-migrant HHs
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Demographic Characteristic Permanent Migrant
Household
Non-Migrant Household
Age of Head (mean)
50.5 yrs
41.2 yrs
Older Age of Head (%
>50)
50.9
22.5
Female-Headed (%)
14.8
10.6
Divorced,
Widowed(Head)(%)
15.5
11.4
Household Size (mean)
5.6 persons
5.3 persons
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Socio-eco-demographic correlates: Permanent &
future migrant HHs better off; Temporary worse
Drivers
Permanent
Older age of HH head
Literate HH
***
Larger HH Size
***
More Land owned
Kms. to Wereda Capitl.
Shocks & risks faced
Poorest Assets
Constant
***
Temporary
*
**
**
**
***
Planned/Future
***
**
*
***
***
*
***
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Rural-Urban permanent migration
pattern predominates in both zones
Migration Pattern
Rural-rural
Rural-urban
Don't know where
(N)
W. Gojjam
20.7%
Wolaita
9.6%
78.7%
85.8%
0.7%
4.6%
(150)
(394)
Permanent migrant households have more assets (consumer
durables)
than non-migrant households
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Migrant households
Non-migrant households
25
Percentage
20
15
10
5
0
Q1 lowest
13
Q2
Q3
Asset quintiles
Q4
Q5 highest
Linkages: Reasons for Permanent Outmigration of
Youth from 2 Rural Areas, by Zone*, Sex, 2011
80
*1 Wereda
each zone
70
60
50
Work-related
Study-related
40
30
20
10
0
W.Gojjam-Boys W.Gojjam-Girls Wolaitta-Boys Wollaita-Girls
Secondary Education Greatly Increased
after Permanent Outmigration
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Education
(highest grade before move)
None
1-6
7-8
9+
W. Gojjam
Wolaitta
Total
15.3
16.0
47.2
21.5
13.8
52.6
17.8
15.8
14.2
42.9
25.6
17.3
(399)
(543)
(144)
Education
(highest at time of survey)
None
1-6
7-8
9+
19.4
35.1
12.6
32.0
22.0
43.7
12.6
21.7
12.4
12.4
12.4
62.8
(137)
(364)
(501)
Migration/off-farm labor included more as
adaptation to shocks than as short-term coping
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ADAPTATION RESPONSES (Last 3 years)
%
Agricultural- planting drought resistant crop varieties; applying
fertilizers
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Migration and off-farm labor- To all shocks/ to environ. shocks
22 / 11
Diversifying income sources
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Environmental protection, reforestation, contours, etc.
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The Migration Decision Process
Cultural change, Aspiration, Information, and
Networks
Desire to Out-migrate
Push Factors
•Land shortage
•Unemployment
•Declining soil fertility
•Rising price-fertilizer
•Lack of second. edu.
•School drop-outs
•Lack of parental care
•Environ. degradation
•Domestic conflict
Intention to Out-migrate
Concrete Plan to Out-migrate
Out-Migration
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Resources to Outmigrate
Pull Factors
•Job opportunities
•Land Availability
•Edu. Opportunity
•Urban Lifestyles
•Land renting possibility
•Kenja Scheme
•Better Remuneration
•Fertile land-no fertilizer
•Changes observed in the
return migrants
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Migration decision-making process:
complexity of socio-cultural change
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Peer influence of successful return migrants
Conflict with parents (over land, aspirations)
Poor education quality (school dropout who can’t
return home)
Safer travel (new roads and transportation)
Better Communication (mobile phones, TV)
Social networks in urban destinations
Youths explain how Population-Land Pressure and
Rising Aspirations drive them out
“Household heads usually could not feed and educate their
members well. Here in our locality, household heads do not
have enough money to fulfill all the needs of their children.
Their farm land is too small and hence the yield as well as the
income is very small to buy cloths, books, food items,
education, etc. This imbalance usually became a cause for
most of the disagreements between parents and children. If
the children are teenagers (at their puberty age), they don’t
want to wait anymore for their needs to be fulfilled, since they
observe that their parents can’t do it. They sometimes clash
with their parents, and for this reason and decide to migrate
anywhere to fulfill their dreams.”
*FGD Youth, Kindo Didaye Woreda, Wolaitta Zone
In different contexts, benefits outweigh
risks for perm. & temp. youth migrants
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Deforested W. Gojjam
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Girls stay in school
Meet educational expenses
Greater job opportunities
Delayed marriage
CPR double in migrant HHs
Additional resources to buy
land or shops, and for
marriage
Illnesses
Drought-prone Wolaita
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Construct/upgrade parents’
housing
Buy animals; motor bicycles
Help younger siblings
Reduces crime by unemployed
youth
New ideas and insights on life
Unwanted pregnancy
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Seasonal migration providing
resources for continuing education
“The youth would attend schools during the academic
season, and starting from June to early September,
they migrate either to Jawe and Humera as daily
laborers on the farm, or they migrate to Addis Ababa
to do businesses such as selling lottery, loading and
unloading or going errands. After saving some money
to buy exercise book, pen, clothing and other
educational materials, they will come back to continue
their education.”
(FGD participant- W. Gojjam)
NON-DROUGHT-PRONE: CASE 3
(ARJO):Migration &livelihood vulnerability
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Demographic Pressure- Population growth, smaller
land holdings and land degradation
Climate variability- unreliable rain (too much and
too little)
Low level of technology- labor intensive farming
Declining agricultural productivity; lack of agroindustrial development
Weak rural-urban linkages and external social
networks; conservative culture
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Non-drought prone area: demographic
vulnerability in extreme ages of household head
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Livelihood vulnerability highest among households
headed by both the young and the old
Younger ones have little key assets (land, labor,
oxen); some without farm land
Older ones lack key assets due to having
bequeathed their land resources; lack labor
Female-headed households more vulnerable due to
their marginalization and lack of land (sharecrop)
Household labor size (man-equivalent) not stat.
related to livelihood vulnerability
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CASE 4IRREGULAR INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION FROM
VERY DENSELY POPULATED SOUTH-CENTRAL
(HADIYA AND KEMBATA) TO SOUTH AFRICA
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Higher Secondary Education - in outmigrants & return
migrants, vs non-migrants (Hadiya/Kemb.)
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Illiterate
Primary
Secondary
Diploma+
80
68
70
Percentages
60
54
51
50
40
38
33
30
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19
20
10
0
25
23
14
8
5
OM
5
14
11
8
RM
NM
Migration Status
Total
Higher employment- in outmigrants migrants than return
migrants (at time of migration), vs non-migrants: Hadiya/Kembata
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Unemployed
70
66
58
Percentages
60
54
48
50
40
Employed
42
52
42
34
30
20
10
0
OM
RM
NM
Migration Status
Total
Causes of outmigration migration to S. Africa: Balance
between perceived opportunities there and lack of
opportunities/unemployment in Hadiya/Kembata
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Family/Peer Pressure
Opportunities in RSA
“For us, next God is
only South Africa”
Lack Opportunities Home
Meet Relatives in RSA
Land Shortage
Poverty
Unemployment
0
10
20
30
Percentages
40
50
Discussion
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The poor drought-prone district had higher rural youth
outmigration than the better-off (but deforested) district
Education is main benefit of outmigration in the better off district, esp. for girls
Rural youth 3x more likely to migrate out of country
than urban youth in Had./Kem.; very low income; high
expectations in RSA
Youth engaged in trade before are 16x more likely to
migrate out of country than those in agriculture
Better-off youth in the one non-drought-prone district
less likely to migrate permanently than in others;
culturally unacceptable to leave, and have other options
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Adaptation to climate variability in context of sociocultural change in aspirations of rural youth
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Differential migration patterns by age, sex, residence, education,
motivation and work status provide more opportunities than risks
The contribution of both temporary and permanent migration to
increased human capital and delayed transition to marriage
contributes to a potential youth dividend
Shocks to the environment affect poorer, short term migrants than
long-term migrants
Labor migration of youth from resource-constrained areas and with
little education reduce household and community vulnerability to
environmental stress
Overseas migration to S. Africa much more influenced by perceived
better opportunities and less constrained political environment than
by climate variability and environmental constraints.
Policy & Research Implications
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Generate a national debate on rural-urban and international migration in
terms of the NAPA, NPP and GTP.
Revise 1993 Nat. Pop. Policy objective that discourages rural-urban
migration; particularly important for girls’ high school retention
Update the Ethiopian NAPA to include different types of migration and
assist vulnerable households in building more climate-resilient livelihoods
Enter into formal agreements with attractive receiving countries on
international migration (eg., with RSA, Saudi Arabia, etc))
Adapt policy for youth as specific to local conditions, pop. pressure,
environmental degradation, culture and opportunities
Work toward capturing the potential demog. dividend through higher
education, skill and job creation, later age of marriage and lower fertility
and population growth
Plan for migration of poorer, “trapped” youth from high climatic variability
areas to contribute to longer-term adaptation to climate change
Include impermanent and circular migration patterns in policy research, as
these common patterns affect the more vulnerable and less resilient
Acknowledgments
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Packard Foundation- Yemesrach Belayeneh
Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA)- Fitsum Zewdu;
Degnet Abebaw
Regional, Zonal, Wereda and Kebele administrative
offices
Addis Ababa U. (Center for Population Studies)- Assefa
Hailemariam, Mehiret Habte; School of Graduate
Studies
Wolaita Sodo University
Wittgenstein Centre- Raya Muttarak