Batteries: Why We Need Them, Jon Hykawy Jonathan Lee

Batteries: Why We Need Them,
and What We Need to Make Them
Jon Hykawy
Jonathan Lee
Electric Cars and Battery Demand
• We believe electric vehicles will see more rapid adoption than
many credit
• We break down vehicle adoption as E-Bikes (mainly Asia), hybrids
(HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and fully electric vehicles (FEVs)
• Battery sizes, in terms of storage capacity, increase, moving from
eBike to FEV; 0.5 kWh for E-Bike, 2 kWh for HEV, 15 kWh for
PHEV and 25 kWh for FEV
• Results in significant demand; 33 GWh of storage by 2015, 82
GWh of storage by 2020
Year
HEV ('000)
PHEV ('000)
FEV ('000)
E-Bikes ('000)
Storage (MWh)
2011
20
25
1,431
1,641
2012
500
70
100
1,646
5,373
2013
600
300
300
1,892
14,146
2014
700
400
500
2,176
20,988
2015
900
750
750
2,503
33,051
2016
1,000
1,000
1,000
2,878
43,439
2017
1,100
1,200
1,250
3,310
53,105
2018
1,200
1,400
1,500
3,806
62,803
2019
1,300
1,600
1,800
4,377
73,789
2020
1,400
1,750
2,000
5,034
81,567
Rechargeable Batteries
• A rechargeable battery, we all know,
allows storage of electricity
• Efficiency is solid, better than 90%
round-trip
• Basically, shuffles and stores ions from
cathode to anode in use, back when
recharging
• State-of-the-art today are lithium
batteries
• Lithium supplanting all other; when was
the last time you came across a new
electronic device with anything but
lithium?
Lithium Batteries
• Anode is typically graphite
• Cathode is a compound made from
lithium and some other metal
• Common cathodes are:
–
–
–
–
–
–
lithium
lithium
lithium
lithium
lithium
lithium
iron phosphate (LFP)
nickel cobalt aluminum (NCA)
nickel cobalt manganese (NCM)
cobalt oxide (LCO)
manganese oxide (LMO)
vanadium phosphate (LVP)
• Demand for battery materials obviously
scales with battery demand
Properties of the Rechargables
Energy
Cathode
Voltage (Wh/kg)
Power
Capacity
(W/kg)
(mAh/g) $/kWh $/kW
$/kg
Life
LCO
$29.46
Low
3.7
102
1,092
170
$289 $26.98
NCM
$14.61
Poor
3.6
96
1,700
175
$152 $8.60
NCA
$11.66
Good
3.8
140
900
200
$83 $12.95
LMO
$0.47
Good
3.6
90
1,300
120
$5
$0.36
LFP
$0.70
Good
3.3
90
1,100
170
$8
$0.64
LVP
$7.10 Excellent 4.2
106
2,000
130
$67 $3.55
Demand Beyond the Consumer Battery
• Consumer electronics demand growth is
8% to 10% per annum
• Above and beyond consumer electronics
– E-bikes
– Electric vehicles
– Grid storage
E-Bikes and Electric Vehicles
• 27 million E-bikes in Asia are expected to grow to approximately
40 million by 2020
• Battery usage per e-bike limited
–
significant penetration and growth required to put dent into demand
• At 20% penetration of e-bike market by 2020, not dominant
–
contributes roughly 19,200 tonnes graphite per annum by 2020
• Hybrids, plug-ins and full electric vehicles
–
–
–
250k hybrids per year, plug-ins and full electrics just in infancy
Estimate of over 2M vehicles by 2015 and 5M vehicles by 2020
Electric vehicles contribute to electrification of powers – all energy sources
converted to electricity storage
Blue Sky – Grid Storage
• US power consumption is roughly 22% of global total
• Renewable Portfolio Standards in the U.S.
– 33 State Policies requiring electricity providers obtain
percentage of power from renewable energy sources
– Implementation dates ranging from 2013 to 2030
– Averages 17% of electricity from renewables
– 33 States combined for 2,538 TWh of electricity in 2010
• 17% of that would be 439 TWh
• Beyond renewables, perhaps even more importantly, storage
hardens the grid
– According to University of Minnesota, non-disaster related
blackouts are up 124%, from 41 in 1991-1995 to 92 in 2001-2005
Blue Sky – Grid Storage
• “Massive Electricity Storage,” a white paper written by
Bernard Lee and David Gushee for AIChE in 2008
• Provides estimate of storage capacity required for
stability
• Approximately 470 GWh storage required to stabilize
grid due to renewable adoption (“upper bound”)
• Depending on type of battery and actual
implementation – game changer
• Absolute game changer – Up to 280 kt LCE and 775 kt
graphite
– Depending on cathode material, multiples of those numbers for
other metals (Mn, V, Co, pure Fe, etc.)
Tesla Roadster
• Uses NCA batteries
• Larger than competitors at 39 kg LCE, 110
kg graphite and 21 kg cobalt per roadster
Source: Tesla Motors
Source: Tesla Motors
BYD e6
• LFP batteries (Fe Power)
• 2,400 kg vehicle – BYD is investigating more
compact and energy dense technologies
Source: BYD Auto
Subaru G4e
• Concept car using LVP, which has high power
density, high voltage
• LVP could be a next generation battery with
superior performance attributes
Source: Subaru Inc.
Nissan Leaf
• Uses LMO batteries
• A 24 kWh battery using 4 kg Li metal, 58 kg
graphite, 62 kg Mn
• Over 3,600 vehicles sold as of March 11’
Source: Nissan Motors Co.
Chevy Volt
• Also utilizes LMO batteries
• Volt’s 16kWh battery uses approximately 2 kg Li
metal, 28 kg graphite, and 30 kg Mn
Source: General Motors
With all these new investments..…
Who Will Mine the Material?
The Materials:
• Graphite
• Lithium
• Manganese
• Cobalt
• Vanadium
Who:
• The companies we’ll hear today
Graphite
• Used in refractories, batteries, brake
linings, lubricants, steelmaking
• 1.1M tonnes production per year
• 80% sourced from China
– 220 kt ex China
• Sold in various forms:
– Natural flake
– Amorphous
– Synthetic/Artificial
Graphite Demand
3,000,000
Annual Graphite Demand (Tonnes)
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Manganese
• 15 million tonne/yr market
• Main use is manufacture of stainless steel
– Sold as into market as FeMn
• 1.3 million tonnes/yr electrolytic Mn
– Purity level needed for battery use
– 97% from China
– 34,000 tonnes/yr produced ex China
Battery Demand, Relatively Speaking
90,000
80,000
Manganese (tonnes)
70,000
60,000
50,000
LMO Contribution
40,000
NCM Contribution
Ex-China Production
30,000
20,000
10,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Cobalt
• 60 – 70 kt per year production
– Largely by-product from nickel and copper
production
– 65% sourced from DRC
• 23% of demand is due to battery use
• Cobalt was in first lithium ion battery
– Majority of cobalt used in batteries is for LCO
(85%)
• NCA, NCM use much less cobalt than LCO
Beyond Battery Grade
• Sold as metal and chemical
• Metal is graded 1 through 4
– Grade 1 (99.9%) mainly supplied by Xstrata, Vale
and Sumitomo
• During failed Inco-Falconbridge merger, European
Commission comments:
– “specifications relate not only to level of purity of
cobalt, but more importantly impose strict
maximum levels measured at the ppm levels for
specific impurities”
Vanadium
• 90% of vanadium used as a steel
strengthener
– Better building codes requiring stronger
materials means more vanadium
– Near-term demand driver
• Upside potential in two types of batteries
– Automotive: LVP
– Grid Storage: Vanadium Redox
Vanadium Curve
120,000
Annual Vanadium Demand (tonnes)
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Consumers will Decide
• No battery dominates; choices made on
basis of power, capacity, safety, price
• Consumers may ultimately decide
• Multiple types of batteries within vehicles
– Different chemistries for different vehicles
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