Working Capital: Treasury Wants a Bigger Say
Transcription
Working Capital: Treasury Wants a Bigger Say
Issue 18 | 9 October 2014 Content Working Capital: Treasury Wants a Bigger Say 2 3 One out of four respondents to a EuroTreasurer survey aims for a more prominent role Treasury usually plays a significant role in managing working capital, but it is rarely the driving force behind it. This is a key finding of a survey conducted by EuroTreasurer and Deutsche Bank, which aimed to shine light on the positions corporate treasurers assume in the working capital strategy of their companies. Across Europe, 122 corporate treasurers were polled, with over half of them being from large companies with turnovers of more than €1 billion. A sizeable share of 20% said that treasury had primary working capital responsibilities within their companies. 6 7 Technology Changes B2B Payments Banks need to modernise their payment infrastructures and cooperate with new players Rumours: Misys for Sale Private equity firm Vista Equity Partners is said to want to sell its stake Penalty Interest on Deposits Institutions want to prevent treasurers from parking large sums temporarily Leader Fitch: Corporate Debt to Set Post-Crisis Record EU corporates raise almost €600 billion of debt in the first half of 2014 Financing Round-Up Vitol, Volkswagen Financial Services, Adidas and others raise fresh money Software 2 Treasury Wants a Bigger Say One out of four respondents to a survey aims for a more prominent role in working capital Cash Management 3 Technology Changes B2B Payments Banks need to modernise their payment infrastructures People 5 Financing 4 Top Transaction Financing spree: Spanish Abengoa syndicates €1.4 billion loan 6 FCA Charges Ex-Morrisons Group Treasurer Paul Coyle faces up to seven years in prison for insider trading Saga CFO Announces Departure After 14 years, Stuart Howard will leave at the end of 2015; Jonathan Hill will take over Job Openings Glaxo Smith Kline, BP and Shell, among others, are looking for candidates Rumours: Misys for Sale Private equity firm Vista Equity Partners is said to want to sell its stake Asset & Risk Management 7 Penalty Interest on Deposits Institutions want to prevent treasurers from parking large sums temporarily China Starts Direct Euro-RMB Trading For corporate treasurers, the move should decrease conversion costs Leader 2 Thinkstock Issue 18 | 9 October 2014 Inventory is the area of working capital where treasurers do not have much to say. Payables and receivables, however, are often under treasury control. Working Capital: Treasury Wants a Bigger Say One out of four respondents to a EuroTreasurer survey aims for a more prominent role T reasury usually plays a significant role in managing working capital, but it is rarely the driving force behind it. This is a key finding of a survey conducted by EuroTreasurer and Deutsche Bank, which aimed to shine light on the positions corporate treasurers assume in the working capital strategy of their companies. Across Europe, 122 corporate treasurers were polled, with over half of them being from large companies with turnovers of more than €1 billion. A sizeable share of 20% of survey respondents said that treasury had primary working capital responsibilities within their companies. In many companies (40%), however, working capital is a shared responsibility among finance and other departments. This is hardly surprising since working capital is comprised of three elements: payables, receivables and inventory. While the first two areas are often under treasury control, inventory responsibilities cannot reside in finance – sales, procurement and production need to be involved as well. The lack of a clear, organised set-up can lead to blurred lines of responsibility, which endangers the efficiency and effectiveness of working capital programmes. Another weakness is the survey respondents’ relatively low KPI usage: Only 53% use working capital KPIs while 59% said they have working capital programmes in place, meaning that at least 6% do not adequately track the success of their projects. The survey certainly provides evidence that the programmes are less efficient than expected. Expectations for future reductions in the cash “The role of treasury in working capital is as prominent as it should be at my company“ (in %) Strongly disagree 2.5 Disagree 24.6 Neither agree nor disagree 27.1 Agree Strongly agree 40.2 5.7 Source: FINANCE Research conversion cycle (CCC), the most popular working capital indicator, were better than actual results. Furthermore, almost 20% of respondents believe that the working capital set-up at their companies is bad or even very bad. Although senior management would argue that existing working capital practices do not need to conform to the ideas of treasury, the result, nonetheless, points to shortcomings that could be improved. Strengthening the role of treasurers could be one possibility to raise satisfaction: Indeed, 27% of respondents want treasury to play a more prominent role in working capital management (see chart). Looking into the future, more than half of the respondents said that the largest improvements can be made on the receivables side. This result is only logical because past experiences show that these improvements can be achieved fairly easily and quickly. Accelerating the invoicing procedures is a typical approach that does not require difficult customer negotiations, as opposed to payment term extensions on the payables side. It does not entail a huge amount of interdepartmental coordination either. Corporate treasurers should not neglect the potential of the payables side. Supply chain finance programmes, such as reverse factoring, are interesting working capital tools for several companies, the survey’s case studies with airline Swiss, brewery SABMiller and brake system manufacturer Knorr-Bremse show. In this area of working capital management, treasury undoubtedly needs to take the lead – both in choosing and implementing the right supply chain finance tool.deb/sta Cash Management 3 Issue 18 | 9 October 2014 News Technology Changes B2B Payments Honeywell sets up cash management in Iraq Banks need to modernise their payment infrastructures and cooperate with new players Deutsche integrates SWIFT MyStandards Deutsche Bank will integrate SWIFT MyStandards, a web repository of standard specifications for payments, into its Autobahn App Market. According to Deutsche Bank, this will allow clients to access MyStandards easily and make wider use of the electronic financial services accessible via the Autobahn App Market. E lectronic and mobile payments are on the rise, and they will no longer be limited to private and retail customers, two recent global payment reports find. Mobile payments are projected to grow by 61% in 2015 while electronic payment growth is forecasted to decelerate by 16% since more people are using mobile devices to make payments. According to the report by BNY Mellon, this will filter through to corporate clients as business leaders are familiarising themselves with mobile payments in their private lives. Several electronic banking and TMS providers already offer smartphone and tablet payment initiation. Besides using new channels, an increasing number of corporates are asking for 24/7 real-time payment processing and information, the two reports claim. According to the report by consultancy Capgemini and The Royal Bank of Scotland, the UK, Sweden, Poland, the US, Mexico and Singapore are forerunners of real-time payment initiatives. The UK, for example, started its Faster Payment Service in 2009: Single payments of up to £100,000 can be sent in 24/7 and will be processed immediately. This, however, is not the case for standing orders yet. iStock US manufacturer Honeywell has chosen Standard Chartered for its trade and cash management business in Iraq. The bank will offer trade finance guarantees through its electronic Straight2Bank platform and will provide a credit line to open bank accounts for Honeywell’s central Iraq legal entity and its Erbil entity. B2B payments go mobile as well. Banks therefore need to modernise their infrastructures to support realtime payments and other innovations such as currency conversion as part of their global payment services. The reports warn them that if they are not willing to do so, they may soon feel the competition of new players in the payment industry, e.g. telecom firms, internet giants and start-ups. So far, these providers often need to rely on banks to process payments in the background. However, the draft of the new payment service directive (PSD2) in Europe proposes opening up payments account information to third parties for payment initiation. If this becomes a reality, banks may lose an important privilege. BNY Mellon recommends that banks increase their cooperation with these new players. So far, they have been reluctant to do so; therefore, start-ups often work with credit card companies, rather than with banks, to increase their scopes. “Many banks are conservative by nature,” Dominic Broom from BNY Mellon explains. Besides, “regulation has put pressure on many banks’ resources, so there may not always be the means to innovate.” Banks should identify markets in which payers are willing to pay a premium for the security of bank payments, he says. Being regulated has several drawbacks, but reliability is a big advantage, especially for corporate customers.deb ADVERTISEMENT Because we manage your payment flows perfectly. Corporate Banking Making your cash management a success factor A lot of companies still have considerable potential to improve their competitiveness by optimising their national and international payment transactions. Enhanced efficiency, greater clarity, lower costs – we have now developed a 5-point programme for cash management optimisation to help you achieve all of this. For more information, visit www.commerzbank.com/cashmanagement 2014_05_12_FL_AZ_CashManagement_190x130_EuroTreasurer_Online_EN.indd 1 22.05.14 11:04 Financing 4 Issue 18 | 9 October 2014 News Top Transaction Bayer launches $7bn jumbo bond Financing spree: Abengoa syndicates €1.4 billion loan, also plans high-yield green bond Bayer Bayer HQ in Leverkusen, Germany (1.5% coupon) and a variable one ($400m) at 0.28% above 3mUSDL. Another $2bn will pay a coupon of 2.375% until 2019. The long-term tranches are set to mature in 2021 and 2024 and are collectively worth $3.25bn at 3% (seven years) and 3.375% (ten years) respectively. Bayer wants to fund the $17bn acquisition of the OTC business of Merck & Co. Kering issues €500m bond French luxury group Kering has issued a €500m bond set to mature in seven years. The yield is expected to be between 75 and 80 basis points compared to mid-swap, potentially causing a return of up to 1.6%. The transaction was backed by BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank, amongst others. Styrolution’s €1.05bn loan rated B2 Frankfurt-based Styrolution has issued a €1.05bn equivalent term loan. The rating agency Moody’s rated the transaction at B2. The styrene supplier plans to use the money to secure outstanding notes due in 2016 and fund its €1.1bn of BASF’s 50% stake in its intermediate parent company Styrolution Holding. S panish technology company Abengoa has successfully refinanced and syndicated €1.4 billion of its longterm corporate bank debt. The transaction was oversubscribed by 140% and was led by 20 financial institutions – among them, HSBC, Société Générale and Banco Santander. The lenders also acted as arrangers and book-runners. The coupon of the issuance was not announced publicly. The loan is separated into two tranches. Tranche A will be used to amortise the existing syndicated loan, which will be repaid in full, Abengoa says. Meanwhile, tranche B will finance the company’s “promotion, development and construction of concession projects”. These are usually low risk, long-term assets in the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP), water, wind, power transmission as well as in cogeneration sectors. The early refinancing is a moneysaving move on Abengoa’s part. The Seville-based company has already reduced financial costs by 100bp in Abengoa German pharmaceutical giant Bayer has launched a jumbo bond worth $7bn via its US subsidiary Bayer US Finance. The bond is separated into six tranches. The short option is a two-year variable tranche worth $500m with an interest rate 0.25% above the threemonth USD-LIBOR (3mUSDL). The mid-term bond includes an $850m fixed rate portion Abengoa’s tower plant on the Solucar platform 2014, with plans to reduce it by 125bp by the end of 2015. Abengoa saves €12 million per year this way. “We always take a proactive approach to our maturity management,” says an Abengoa spokesperson. “We decided to take advantage of a good opportu- nity to extend maturities and improve our financing costs,” she adds. However, the financing splurge is far from over. Abengoa announced the issuance of its first green bond at the end of September, which will be worth €500 million. It will be used to finance “eligible green projects”. The bond was offered to traditional highyield investors and “socially responsible” investment buyers. The high-yield green bond is the first of its kind in the EU, according to Abengoa. The technology company sees a high level of interest in the capital markets for green investments. The current search for higher yields only makes the instrument more attractive to investors. The offering was closed on 30 September. Abengoa did not comment on how big the interest exactly was and whether the issuance was oversubscribed.jae Fitch: Corporate Debt to Set Post-Crisis Record EU corporates raise almost €600 billion of debt in the first half of 2014 E uropean corporates are on their way to take on the most newly acquired debt since 2007. Overall, EU companies raised €595 billion of liabilities in the first half of 2014, the rating agency Fitch says in a recent report. In the second quarter alone, EU corporates took on €360 billion of additional debt. Supposedly, this was the single highest quarter since the Q2 peak in 2007. That year, companies made commitments worth more than €1.4 trillion. The increased amount of debt this year is due to a recovery in bank lending, writes Fitch. Loan volumes have been boosted by a notable rise in M&A activity. Among others corporates, German pharmaceutical company Merck recently finished its biggest transaction in the company’s history. Merck acquired laboratory equipment supplier Sigma-Aldrich for €13 billion. The deal was largely financed by a bridge loan. However, borrowers are moving farther and farther away from the banking sector as a means of funding. Therefore, EU companies have turned to debt capital markets to replace loans with other funding options. In the first half of 2014, new bond issuance accounted for 41% (€246 billion) of new funding. Although the overall volume of additional financial commitments was higher in 2007, bonds only accounted for a puny 16% of the total freshly acquired debt at that time. The trend is especially noteworthy in the periphery of the eurozone, where bonds currently account for 47% of new debt, up from 37% in 2013. The impact of bonds on total debt is even greater. The loan instrument accounts for 83% of the developedmarket debt of European corporates, up from 70% in 2009. The reasons for the discrepancy between share and volume are that loans are typically not fully drawn and that they do not necessarily show up on balance sheets. Moreover, the EU has been hit by a wave of early refinancings. The development has been caused by a momentary, gradual improvement of the local economic conditions. Additionally, low long-term funding costs have made bond markets more attractive to European companies. After a lull at the beginning of the year, EU corporates are now apparently willing to tap the bond market.jae Financing Round-Up +++ Swiss energy trader Vitol has signed syndicated revolving credit facilities totaling $7.5bn +++ Volkswagen Financial Services has placed its 20th ABS transaction in history at €1.071bn +++ German Adidas has emitted a Eurobond worth €1bn in two tranches at 75bp and 105bp above mid-swap +++ Tag management company TagCommander has raised €6.5m in series B funding +++ UKlisted gold explorer Hummingbird Resources has successfully issued a $3m US private placement +++ Moody’s has announced that it is launching Unpublished Monitored Private Placement Ratings (UMPPR) across EMEA +++ People 5 Issue 18 | 9 October 2014 SI Re Patrick Schumacher is the new Finance Director of Swiss reinsurer Signal Iduna Re. He will be replacing Beat Landtwing, who is set to retire after ten years with the company. Schumacher will be responsible for the department’s financial accounting and IT. Previously, he was in charge of financial accounting and reporting at reinsurer New Re. Iain Torrens will join pay television provider TalkTalk Telecom Group as CFO. Torrens is the former Group Treasurer of electronic dealer broker ICAP, where he later took over as the Group Finance Director. A commencement date of his new position has yet to be announced. Torrens will succeed Steve Makin, who leaves TalkTalk at the end of the year. Ola Hegesson is the new CFO of Swedish Concordia Maritime. In the future, he will also part be of the management group and in the insider register, the tanker shipping company states. In his previous stint, Hegesson acted as Group CFO of Swedish ferry operator Stena Line. He took over for Anna Forshamn, who left to be Head of Pensions at Stena Group, on 1 October. Paul Coyle faces up to seven years in prison for insider trading P aul Coyle, former Group Treasurer and Head of Tax at Morrison Supermarkets, has been charged with two accounts of insider dealings, the British Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) announced. Coyle now faces either a fine or up to seven years in prison. The FCA had previously arrested Coyle in December 2013. At the time, he was merely questioned about an “investigation into insider dealing and market abuse”. He was, however, not charged with the crime. This has changed, the FCA confirmed last week. The authority also verified rumours that the offences were related to trading in Ocado Group shares between February and May 2013. In May 2013, Morrison Supermarkets announced a partnership with Ocado Group in order to improve performance in the UK online grocery market. However, from February that year until the announcement, Ocado shares more than doubled. Morrisons appears to be unperturbed by the accusations. The supermarket chain said that it “is satisfied with its governance and procedures concerning the handling of market Thinkstock Alan Kinch has been appointed CFO of Williams Grand Prix Holdings. He will take over the position at the beginning of December, Williams announced. Kinch will be responsible for all operational and structural finance and will also join the Board of Directors. He is coming from Vodafone Group Enterprise, where he has been Finance Director since April 2013. Kinch will be replacing Finance Director Louise Evans, who is seeking new challenges elsewhere. FCA Charges Ex-Morrisons Group Treasurer Morrison Supermarkets are struggling with increasing competition and bad news. sensitive data in this case”. Morrisons added that it “found that the company’s procedures had been properly followed”. There were no other employees involved besides Coyle, and the incident is considered the result of an “individual acting alone”. Morrison Supermarkets could use some good news in the meantime. Similar to other UK supermarket chains, the retailer is suffering more and more under German competi- tion; discounters Aldi and Lidl are taking away market shares from established UK retailers. Morrisons’ overall turnover has decreased by almost 5% to £8.5 billion during the first half of 2014. Profit before tax even decreased by 30% to £239 million, down from £344 million. Since the FCA announcement to charge Coyle with insider trading, Morrisons stocks have plummeted yet again, suffering an intermittent loss of 7%.jae Saga CFO Announces Departure after 14 Years Stuart Howard will leave at the end of 2015; Jonathan Hill will take over S tuart Howard (Photo), CFO of Saga, has declared that he will step down from his position at the end of 2015. For the past 14 years, the 52-year-old has been Finance Director of insurance and holiday provider for British customers aged 50 and older. Howard is also the CFO of Acromas Holding in 2007, the parent company for the merger between Saga and The Automobile Association. As his replacement, Saga has appointed Jonathan Hill as Group CFO. He will join them from the home construction company Bovis Homes, where he has been Group Finance Director. Hill and Howard will work closely together, states Saga, in order to ensure an “orderly handover”. Howard’s retirement announcement comes just months after Saga Group’s official public offering (IPO) with which the company raised €928 million, according to Bloomberg. Saga, which is partially owned by private-equity investors, has been listed on the FTSE 250 Index since May. The IPO also appears to be the reason for the departure as “Howard feels it is time to hand over to someone who can take the business forward in the next stage of its development as a listed company,” the company announced. Saga shares have been on a downswing as of late. Originally listed at 185 GBp, the value has been in steady decline since the end of August, recently dropping down to 160 GBp, losing an additional 8% since the presentation of the half-year results. This comes in contrast to a rather Saga News strong performance during the first half of the year. After deducting IPO expenses (£50.8 million) and the oneoff cost of new debt (£22.9 million), Saga still managed a profit before tax of £32.8 million.jae Job Openings EACT: is looking for a Policy Director in Brussels BP: is looking for an Internal Control Advisor in Budapest Shell: is looking for a Team Head, Risk Solutions in London and The Hague Glaxo Smith Kline: is looking for a Manager, Global Treasury Consultancy in Brentford, UK Thomas Cook: is looking for a Treasurer, UK in Peterborough Software 6 Issue 18 | 9 October 2014 News Rumours: Misys for Sale L&Q introduces TMS Private equity firm Vista is said to want to sell its stake Soltra Edge improves security The Financial Services Information Sharing and Analysis Centre and DTCC have joined to form Soltra. The joint venture will design Soltra Edge, a corporate cyber security solution that will “connect and streamline the flow of threat intelligence”, the companies state. The security software will be available in late 2014. V ista Equity Partners is reportedly ments in Misys by means of an initial looking to sell financial software public offering. When EuroTreasurer provider Misys. According to Reuters, asked for a statement regarding its Vista has employed bankers to scout future, Misys declined to comment for buyers who would be interested on the newspaper reports. This unin taking over the financial software certainty casts a shadow over Misys’ provider. If Vista Fusion treasury sells off Misys, software suite rethe two-yearleased earlier this old acquisition summer. will come to an Despite all end. Rival comthe speculapany Temenos, tion surrounding a Swiss-based Vista’s reported financial services plans for Misys software comto go public, pany, pulled out Nadeem Syed, CEO of Misys American softof the race for a ware company merger with Misys in 2012, putting TIBCO Software Inc. recently anVista in the position to acquire the nounced that it will be acquired by English banking software company for Vista. Vista purchased the business $2 billion. intelligence software company for Additional news sources report $4.3 billion, and the transaction is exthat Vista may have other plans in pected to be completed by the end of store for Misys. Financial Times re- this year. According to Reuters, Vista ported that the US-based private eq- competed in a select circle of private uity firm is looking to exit its invest- equity firms to buy TIBCO.jko Misys UK affordable housing provider L&Q has built Salmon Treasurer, a TMS from Salmon Software. “With a fast changing business model, it is vital for us to manage and have instant management information and visibility on our banking, cash, treasury and debt positions,” says Martin Watts, Head of Treasury at L&Q. Salmon Software is available as both an on-site and a cloud computing TMS. 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Asset & Risk Management 7 Issue 18 | 9 October 2014 News Penalty Interest on Deposits S&P: Longer downturn in Russia Institutions want to prevent treasurers from parking large sums temporarily New trading venue for exotic options Derivatives specialist SuperDerivatives has gone live with a new electronic trading platform for exotic foreignexchange options. The firm plans to expand the types of tradable asset classes from just metals and FX to include oil, equity derivatives, credit and interest rates. ESMA names products for swaps clearing ESMA has issued finalised regulatory technical standards for IRS clearing through central counterparties. According to the watchdog, four swap classes are defined in the clearing mandate, including basis swaps and fixed-to-floating swaps in euros, pounds and US dollars with maturities between one month and 50 years. Nonfinancial counterparties will have to comply by early 2018 if no additional hurdles or delays come up. France’s mid-market under pressure The business credit profile for most French mid-market companies has deteriorated on the back of weakening profit margins, S&P says. The rating agency expects profit margins to recover slowly. Private placements and direct lending activities will gain importance for French midmarket firms. C orporate treasurers in the euro The loose monetary policy of the Euroarea are in danger of being pean Central Bank could be to blame charged with penalty interest for for the banks’ paradigm shift. The ECB short-term deposits. Relevant informa- charges commercial banks a penalty tion from various businesses has come interest rate of 0.2% if they park to light in the past few days. Accord- money at the central bank instead of ing to reports, some banks have threatened E.ON and Lufthansa, members of the German blue chip index DAX, with negative interest rates on short-term bank deposits. According to German airline Lufthansa, negative interest rates for sight deposits have been an- Short-term investments could be expensive for treasurers. nounced, but no banks have realised this so far. Energy giant E.ON offering loans to businesses in order has confirmed this as well. “Until to stimulate the economy. now, we were able to avoid negative Some banks have adopted the interest rates by choosing other bank- ECB’s policy and are charging their ing partners, stretching maturities or own corporate clientele penalty interchanging to other means of invest- est. They want to prevent treasurers ment forms,” an E.ON spokesperson from parking large sums of money for said. only for a short time because banks are barely able to yield a return. EuroTreasurer recently surveyed various banks and discovered that so far, institutes behave quite differently when it comes to negative interest rate collection. A lot of banks do not want to discuss the topic. Some banks raise penalty interest in individual cases, and others do not, but they do not foreclose it in the future. Some banks, however, firmly reject such a move. Head of the German UniCredit affiliate HypoVereinsbank Theodor Weimer warned the industry to pass the ECB’s penalty interest on to businesses and consumers. “If we allow this, the economy falls apart,” Weimer was quoted as saying. Weimer excluded such an approach for his own institute. “No matter who comes to us: He will not be punished because he gives us money,” Weimer said.ank Thinkstock The international sanctions and countersanctions are further weakening the Russian economy, which was already slowing before the crisis erupted, S&P warns. Restricted market access and increased costs of financing, as well as the heightened uncertainty, are weighing on investment. At the same time, depreciation of the ruble is pushing up inflation. The rating agency expects a longer downturn. China Starts Direct Trading in Euro and RMB For corporate treasurers, the move should decrease conversion costs C orporate treasurers have been able to trade directly between the Chinese renminbi and the euro since the end of September. With this move, the euro has become the sixth currency that can be directly converted into renminbi in mainland China. Up until this point, this was only the case for the US dollar, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the British pound and the Japanese yen. According to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS), the interbank trading and foreign exchange division of China’s central bank, People’s Bank of China (PBoC), direct currency trading aims to promote bilateral trade and investment between China and the EU and to facilitate the use of the two currencies. So far, commercial transactions between the two major economic areas are predominantly carried out in US dollars. For corporate treasurers, the move means that conversion costs are expected to decline. With direct currency trading between renminbi and euro, the detour via the US dollar can be avoided in the future. “China’s announcement is no big surprise. Specifically, after the direct trade between the British pound and the renminbi was announced in June. Nevertheless, the move should provide for a greater use of the still highly regulated Chinese currency in payment services,” says the treasurer of an automotive supplier operating in China. French and German businesses are expected to benefit the most. They are the leaders in renminbi use among countries outside of greater China, according to a July report by HSBC (based on a survey of 1,304 businesses in 11 major economies that have ties with mainland China). Exactly 26% of French corporates and 23% of German companies were using the currency to settle trade, the highest proportions apart from mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. According to information from the PBoC, the exchange rate will be settled once a day, from which then trading will take place. So called market makers are commissioned to detect market prices and to provide liquidity. It is the same system the PBoC has adopted to calculate the US dollar exchange rate. HSBC said separately that it has received regulatory approval to be one of the first market makers when trading begins in China’s domestic market. There were perceptible reactions in the foreign exchange market after the announcement: The Chinese currency appreciated noticeably in the direct aftermath of the message – both against the euro and the US dollar. “But we do not see a quantum leap for the global currency trading yet,” said a foreign exchange dealer. The US dollar-renminbi will remain the dominant currency pair in international mercantile trading. In addition, capital movements will be subject to strict control even after the introduction of direct trade. Swift reported that the payment volume in yuan has doubled in the past two years. ank