2QFY2015 Result Update | Banking
October 17, 2014
Federal Bank
NEUTRAL
Performance Highlights
CMP
Target Price
Particulars (` cr)
NII
Pre-prov. profit
PAT
2QFY15
606
410
240
1QFY15
564
352
220
% chg (qoq)
7.4
16.6
9.1
2QFY14
548
354
226
% chg (yoy)
10.5
15.8
6.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
`132
-
Investment Period
-
Stock Info
Banking
Sector
Market Cap (` cr)
Federal Bank reported a mixed set of numbers for 2QFY2015 with steady asset
quality; however profit grew merely by 6.4% yoy to `240.3cr. On the operating
front, Net Interest Income for the bank increased by 10.5% yoy, while non-interest
income grew by 36.6% yoy, leading to healthy operating income growth of 15.9%
yoy. Operating expenses grew 16% yoy, leading to pre-provisioning profit growth
of 15.8% yoy. Provision expenses for the bank came in at `45.7cr, significantly
higher than `22.1cr incurred in 1QFY2015 and vs `11.0cr in 2QFY2014.
Advance growth remains healthy; Asset quality continues to improve: During
2QFY2015, the bank witnessed loan growth of 14.8% yoy, while the growth in
deposits came in at 13.7% yoy. Growth in advance was led by the SME and Agri
book, which reported a growth of 26% and 25% yoy respectively. 64% of fresh
credit disbursals (excl retail) were towards working capital, while the rest were
term loans. The Corporate book grew by 2% yoy; however, on a qoq basis, it
grew by 9.5%. CASA deposits grew by 13.1% yoy, with saving and current
deposits growing by 13.1% and 12.9% yoy respectively. Consequently, the CASA
ratio remained steady at 30.6% as compared to 30.7% in 2QFY2014. During the
quarter, the reported NIM for the bank improved by 10bp qoq to 3.35%, mainly
on account of one off related to interest on income tax refund of `27cr. Going
ahead, the Management has guided at an advances growth of around 20% and
CASA ratio at around 31-31.5%. Non -interest income (excluding treasury) grew
by 12.8% yoy at `154cr. On the asset quality front, the annualized slippage rate
stood at 1.5% as compared to 1.6% in 1QFY2015. During the quarter, the bank
witnessed slippages of `176cr, out of which slippages from the retail segment were
`55cr, SME segment slippages were `105cr and Agri segment slippages were
`16cr. The bank has not sold any asset to ARCs during the quarter. Lower slippages
have aided the bank to reduce its Gross NPA ratio from 2.22% in 1QFY2015 to
2.1% in the current quarter. The bank restructured advances worth `68cr during the
quarter; the outstanding restructured book now stands at `2,900cr.
11,259
Beta
1.7
52 Week High / Low
139.9/67.5
Avg. Daily Volume
1,53,036
Face Value (`)
2
BSE Sensex
25,999
Nifty
7,748
Reuters Code
FED.BO
FB:IN
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters
0.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
27.1
FII / NRIs / OCBs
37.7
Indian Public / Others
35.3
Abs. (%)
3m
1yr
3yr
Sensex
1.8
26.5
41.9
FB
5.1
96.3
69.9
Outlook and valuation: After witnessing severe asset quality pressures for the last
few years, the bank’s asset quality has shown improvement over the last four
quarters on lower slippages and better recoveries/upgrades. While we remain
watchful of the bank’s near term performance on the asset quality front, the
stock’s current valuation at 1.3x of FY2016E P/ABV offers limited scope of upside
from here on, in our view. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr)
NII
% chg
Net profit
% chg
NIM (%)
EPS (`)
P/E (x)
P/ABV (x)
RoA (%)
RoE (%)
FY2013
1,953
11.8
777
32.3
3.6
9.1
9.1
1.2
1.4
14.4
FY2014
2,229
12.9
839
0.1
3.2
9.8
13.1
1.6
1.2
12.6
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of October 16, 2014
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
FY2015E
2,434
9.2
947
12.9
3.2
11.1
11.6
1.4
1.3
13.8
FY2016E
2,797
14.9
1,073
13.3
3.2
12.5
10.2
1.3
1.3
14.6
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6808
[email protected]
Umesh Matkar
022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6839
[email protected]
1
Federal Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2015 performance
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY15
1QFY15
% chg (qoq)
2QFY14
% chg (yoy)
FY2014
FY2013
% chg
Interest earned
1,870
1,772
5.5
1,714
9.0
6,946
6,168
12.6
- on Advances / Bills
1,363
1,300
4.9
1,265
7.8
5,011
4,636
8.1
453
458
(1.2)
438
3.4
1,777
1,465
21.3
23
13
86.0
11
109.3
52
56
(7.1)
- on investments
- on balance with RBI & others
- on others
31
1
3,191.4
1
4,401.5
106
11
12.5
1,264
1,207
4.7
1,166
8.4
4,717
4,193
12.5
Net Interest Income
606
564
7.4
548
10.5
2,229
1,975
12.9
Other income
196
157
25.1
143
36.6
694
664
4.4
- Other income excl. treasury
154
117
32.0
136
12.8
540
459
17.7
Interest Expended
- Treasury Income
42
40
5.0
7
502.6
154
206
(25.2)
Operating income
802
721
11.2
692
15.9
2,922
2,639
10.7
Operating expenses
392
369
6.1
338
16.0
1,392
1,185
17.5
- Employee expenses
204
204
(0.3)
170
19.6
722
631
14.3
- Other Opex
188
165
14.1
167
12.4
671
553
21.2
Pre-provision Profit
410
352
16.6
354
15.8
1,530
1,455
5.2
Provisions & Contingencies
46
22
107.0
11
316.3
318
261
22.1
- Provisions for NPAs
66
-
(46)
(244.5)
228
224
1.8
8
-
27
(71.7)
112
(37)
(403.8)
- Other Provisions
(28)
22
107.0
29
(195.0)
(35)
78
(144.9)
PBT
364
329
10.5
343
6.2
1,212
1,194
1.5
Provision for Tax
124
109
13.3
117
5.7
373
356
4.9
- Provisions for Investments
PAT
240
220
9.1
226
6.4
839
838
0.1
Effective Tax Rate (%)
34.0
33.2
84bp
34.2
(16)bp
30.8
29.8
100bp
Source: Company, Angel Research
October 17, 2014
2
Federal Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 2: 2QFY2015 performance
Particulars
2QFY15
1QFY15
% chg (qoq)
2QFY14
% chg (yoy)
Advances (`cr)
48,466
45,012
7.7
42,220
14.8
Deposits (` cr)
64,564
61,815
4.4
56,794
13.7
75.1
72.8
225bp
74.3
73bp
Balance sheet
Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%)
Current deposits (` cr)
3,304
3,163
4.5
2,926
12.9
Saving deposits (` cr)
16,428
15,846
3.7
14,524
13.1
CASA deposits (` cr)
19,732
19,009
3.8
17,450
13.1
CASA ratio (%)
30.6
30.8
(19)bp
30.73
(16)bp
CAR (%)
14.5
15.2
(71)bp
15.4
(90)bp
3.4
3.3
10bp
3.3
5bp
48.9
51.2
(234)bp
48.8
5bp
1,031
1,016
1.4
1,466
(29.7)
Profitability Ratios (%)
Reported NIM
Cost-to-income ratio
Asset quality
Gross NPAs (` cr)
Gross NPAs (%)
2.1
2.2
(12)bp
3.4
(129)bp
Net NPAs (` cr)
319
304
4.8
411
(22.6)
Net NPAs (%)
Provision Coverage Ratio (%)
Slippage ratio (%)
0.7
0.7
(2)bp
1.0
(32)bp
85.1
84.9
21bp
81.2
390bp
1.5
1.6
(17)bp
1.4
2bp
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *Basel III
Balance sheet growth steady; NIM improves sequentially
During 2QFY2015, the bank witnessed a steady growth in balance sheet of
10% yoy, as its advances grew by 14.8% and deposits grew by 13.7% yoy. Growth
in advances was lead by SME, Agri and retail book, which reported a growth of
26%, 25% and 16% yoy respectively, while the corporate book growth was flat at
2% yoy.
As of 2QFY2015, the bank’s total gold loan portfolio (including Agri loans backed
by gold) stands at `6,852cr (13.9% of overall loan book).
Within deposits, the bank witnessed steady growth in its CASA deposits at
13.1% yoy, as savings deposits grew by 13.1% yoy, while current deposits reported
an increase of 12.9% yoy. Consequently, the CASA ratio remained steady at
30.6% as compared to 30.7% in 2QFY2014. The bank has reduced its
dependence on bulk deposits with it being 1.2% of overall deposits as compared
to 1.53% in 1QFY2015 and 7.11% in 2QFY2014.
October 17, 2014
3
Federal Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Business growth steady in 2QFY2015
Adv. yoy chg (% )
Dep. yoy chg (%)
20.0
76.0
30.0
72.8
74.0
14.8
13.7
(1.5)
(5.0)
2QFY14
30.7
30.4
2QFY14
3QFY14
30.8
30.8
30.6
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
28.0
26.0
9.1
8.5
72.1
16.3
14.7
5.0
72.7
3.7
10.0
(%)
32.0
75.1
74.3
5.4
11.9
15.0
Exhibit 4: CASA ratio steady yoy
CDR (%, RHS)
78.0
3QFY14 4QFY2014 1QFY15
72.0
24.0
70.0
22.0
68.0
20.0
2QFY15
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research
During the quarter the NIM for the bank improved by 10bp qoq to 3.35% on
account of one off related to interest on income tax refund of `27cr. Adjusted for
the one off, NIM was stable qoq at 3.2%.
Exhibit 5: ...aiding 10bp qoq improvement in NIM
(%)
3.80
3.59
3.60
3.40
3.35
3.30
3.25
3.24
3.20
3.00
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
Source: Company, Angel Research
Non-interest income (excluding treasury) flat yoy
During the quarter, the bank’s performance on the non-interest income (excluding
treasury) front was steady at `154cr with a growth of 12.8% yoy. Treasury gains
during the quarter came in at `42cr, as against `7cr registered in 2QFY2014. The
overall other income for the bank grew at a healthy pace of 36.6% yoy mainly due
to treasury income.
October 17, 2014
4
Federal Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Lower slippages aided sequential decline in Gross NPAs
On the asset quality front, though slippages in the SME segment were higher at
`105cr during the quarter as compared to `60-80cr in the previous quarters,
overall slippages were restricted to `176cr as compared to `183cr in 1QFY2015,
as slippages in the corporate segment were nil during the quarter. As a result, the
Gross NPA ratio fell by 12bp qoq to 2.1%. Slippages from the retail segment
amounted to `55cr, SME segment slippages were `105cr and Agri segment
slippages were `16cr. The bank restructured advances worth `68cr during the
quarter; the outstanding restructured book for the bank now stands at `2,900cr.
Exhibit 6: Trends in Gross and Net NPA levels
Gross NPAs (` cr)
Net NPAs (` cr)
PCR (%, RHS)
1,800
95.0
1,500
1,200
81.2
84.1
83.3
84.9
85.1
90.0
85.0
80.0
900
75.0
2QFY14
3QFY14 4QFY2014 1QFY15
1,031
319
1,016
304
1,087
322
1,201
356
1,466
411
600
300
Exhibit 7: Slippages at 1.45% during 2QFY2015
65.0
60.0
2QFY15
CIR (%, RHS)
52.0
51.2
48.9
50.0
49.0
1.00
3QFY14
4QFY2014
1QFY15
2QFY15
204
Source: Company, Angel Research
2.06
2QFY15
2.03
2.00
1.90
1.96
1.89
1.90
46.0
45.0
3QFY14 4QFY2014 1QFY15
(%)
2.10
48.0
47.0
204
201
177
170
47.7
October 17, 2014
1.20
51.0
188
165
183
169
167
49.3
200
2QFY14
1.40
1.45
1.39
Exhibit 9: Opex-to-avg. assets trend
Other opex (` cr)
400
100
1.43
Source: Company, Angel Research
500
48.8
1.63
1.60
2QFY14
Exhibit 8: Opex trends
300
1.79
1.80
70.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Staff exps (` cr)
(%)
2.00
1.80
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY2014
1QFY15
2QFY15
Source: Company, Angel Research
5
Federal Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Outlook and valuation
Over the last three years, the bank has grown its branch network at a healthy
CAGR of 21.4%, which has not only aided the bank to increase its low cost deposit
profile (CASA ratio has reached 30.6% as of 2QFY2015 from 25.7% as of
2QFY2012), but has also laid a platform for building a sustainable retail asset
book.
After witnessing severe asset quality pressures for the last few years, the bank’s
asset quality has shown improvement over the last four quarters (on lower
slippages and better recoveries/upgrades). While we remain watchful of the bank’s
near term performance on the asset quality front, the stock’s current valuation at
1.3x of FY2016E P/ABV offers limited scope of upside from here on. Hence, we
recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.
Exhibit 10: Recommendation summary
CMP
(`)
Tgt. price
(`)
Upside
(%)
FY2016E
P/ABV (x)
FY2016E
Tgt. P/ABV (x)
FY2016E
P/E (x)
FY2014-16E
EPS CAGR (%)
FY2016E
RoA (%)
FY2016E
RoE (%)
859
962
12.0
3.3
3.8
15.7
24.5
2.0
23.2
Buy
1,464
1,881
28.5
1.9
2.5
12.8
16.2
1.7
16.9
Buy
588
742
26.2
1.8
2.3
10.1
13.9
1.6
19.0
AxisBk
Buy
394
504
28.1
1.8
2.4
10.5
19.2
1.8
18.7
SBI*
Buy
2,466
2,974
20.6
1.4
1.4
10.2
29.0
0.8
14.0
FedBk
Neutral
132
-
-
1.3
-
10.5
13.1
1.3
14.6
SIB
Buy
26
36
38.7
0.9
1.2
6.0
6.8
0.9
15.0
BOB
Buy
867
1,021
17.7
0.8
1.0
6.2
15.5
0.8
14.2
PNB
Buy
918
1,134
23.6
0.8
1.0
5.6
33.5
0.9
14.6
UcoBk
Buy
76
101
31.9
0.6
0.8
4.0
13.1
0.6
14.0
BOI
Buy
251
317
26.5
0.6
0.7
4.1
19.5
0.6
12.9
UnionBk
Accumulate
209
235
12.6
0.7
0.8
4.7
25.2
0.6
13.5
CanBk
Accumulate
370
410
10.7
0.6
0.7
4.9
19.1
0.6
12.4
IDBI#
Buy
60
76
26.4
0.4
0.5
4.5
38.7
0.5
8.9
DenaBk
Buy
58
75
30.0
0.5
0.6
3.8
22.0
0.6
11.5
HDFCBk
Accumulate
859
962
12.0
3.3
3.8
15.7
24.5
2.0
23.2
Company
Reco.
HDFCBk
Accumulate
ICICIBk*
YesBk
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP target price/ABV (including subsidiaries); Without adjusting for SASF
#
October 17, 2014
6
Federal Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr)
NII
- YoY growth (%)
Other income
- YoY growth (%)
Operating income
- YoY growth (%)
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
1,411
1,747
1,953
1,975
2,229
2,434
2,797
7.3
23.8
11.8
1.1
12.9
9.2
14.9
531
517
532
664
694
724
778
2.9
(2.7)
3.0
24.8
4.4
4.3
7.4
1,942
2,263
2,486
2,639
2,922
3,158
3,574
6.0
16.6
9.8
6.2
10.7
8.1
13.2
Operating expenses
677
836
979
1,180
1,442
1,586
1,785
- YoY growth (%)
18.5
23.5
17.1
20.5
22.3
10.0
12.5
1,265
1,427
1,506
1,460
1,480
1,572
1,790
Pre-prov. profit
- YoY growth (%)
Prov. & cont.
- YoY growth (%)
PBT
- YoY growth (%)
0.4
12.8
5.6
(3.1)
1.4
6.2
13.8
405
525
337
266
268
170
188
(13.2)
29.6
(35.9)
(21.1)
1.0
(36.8)
11.0
860
902
1,170
1,194
1,212
1,403
1,601
8.4
4.9
29.7
2.1
1.5
15.7
14.2
Prov. for taxation
395
315
393
356
373
456
528
- as a % of PBT
46.0
34.9
33.6
29.8
30.8
32.5
33.0
PAT
- YoY growth (%)
465
587
777
838
839
947
1,073
(7.2)
26.4
32.3
7.9
0.1
12.9
13.3
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
171
171
171
171
171
171
171
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr)
Share Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Deposits
- Growth (%)
Borrowings
Tier 2 Capital
Other Liab. & Prov.
4,938
5,535
6,194
6,780
7,518
8,352
43,015
48,937
57,615
59,731
68,691
79,682
12.0
19.3
13.8
17.7
3.7
15.0
16.0
1,227
1,582
3,935
4,957
5,458
4,163
4,812
320
306
306
230
230
224
219
1,380
1,445
1,742
1,883
2,224
2,495
2,999
Total Liabilities
43,676
51,456
60,627
71,050
74,594
83,262
96,234
Cash Balances
2,319
2,935
2,424
2,743
3,104
3,435
3,984
Bank Balances
405
813
1,108
977
1,425
1,665
1,925
Investments
13,055
14,538
17,402
21,155
24,118
24,988
27,159
Advances
26,950
31,953
37,756
44,097
43,436
50,386
59,959
- Growth (%)
20.4
18.6
18.2
16.8
(1.5)
16.0
19.0
Fixed Assets
290
290
326
397
425
460
516
Other Assets
Total Assets
- Growth (%)
October 17, 2014
4,519
36,058
658
927
1,610
1,681
2,086
2,328
2,691
43,676
51,456
60,627
71,050
74,594
83,262
96,234
12.4
17.8
17.8
17.2
5.0
11.6
15.6
7
Federal Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Ratio analysis
Y/E March
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Profitability ratios (%)
NIMs
3.5
3.8
3.6
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
34.9
36.9
39.4
44.7
49.3
50.2
49.9
RoA
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.3
RoE
10.3
12.0
14.4
13.9
12.6
13.8
14.6
CASA Ratio
26.2
26.9
27.5
27.2
31.2
31.2
31.0
Credit/Deposit Ratio
74.7
74.3
77.2
76.5
72.7
73.4
75.2
CAR
18.4
16.8
16.6
14.7
15.3
15.4
14.9
- Tier I
16.9
15.6
15.9
14.1
14.6
14.7
14.2
Gross NPAs
3.0
3.5
3.3
3.4
2.5
1.6
1.3
Net NPAs
0.5
0.6
0.5
1.0
0.7
0.2
0.2
Slippages
3.3
3.2
2.1
2.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
Cost to Income Ratio
B/S ratios (%)
Asset Quality (%)
Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets
Provision Coverage
1.0
1.0
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
84.3
83.4
84.7
72.2
70.4
86.5
84.1
5.4
6.9
9.1
9.8
9.8
11.1
12.5
54.8
59.7
66.7
73.8
80.6
89.8
99.6
5.0
8.5
9.0
9.0
10.0
10.5
12.0
14.5
13.4
13.4
11.9
10.5
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.3
Per Share Data (`)
EPS
ABVPS
DPS
Valuation Ratios
PER (x)
24.2
19.2
P/ABVPS (x)
2.4
2.2
Dividend Yield
3.8
6.5
6.8
6.8
7.6
8.0
9.1
NII
3.4
3.7
3.5
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.0
(-) Prov. Exp.
1.0
1.1
0.6
0.4
0.4
(0.0)
(0.1)
Adj. NII
2.4
2.6
2.9
2.6
2.7
3.0
3.0
Treasury
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
Int. Sens. Inc.
2.7
2.7
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.1
Other Inc.
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Op. Inc.
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.8
Opex
1.6
1.8
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
1.9
PBT
2.1
1.9
2.1
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.9
Taxes
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
RoA
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.3
DuPont Analysis (%)
Leverage (x)
RoE
October 17, 2014
9.2
9.7
10.4
10.9
10.9
11.0
11.6
10.3
12.0
14.4
13.9
12.6
13.8
14.6
8
Federal Bank | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should
make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the
companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine
the merits and risks of such an investment.
Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot
testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document.
While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be
regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
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redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking
or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or
in the past.
Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from
or in connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the
latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may
have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
Federal Bank
1. Analyst ownership of the stock
No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock
No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock
No
4. Broking relationship with company covered
No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
October 17, 2014
Buy (> 15%)
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Sell (< -15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
9