Document 6574103

October 28, 2014
Global Markets Research
Daily Market Highlights
Key Takeaways
Overnight Economic Data
US
UK
Market sentiments remained mixed, baffled by growth concerns, falling oil prices, outcome
of the European banks’ stress tests, and to some extent Ebola fear. Overnight economic
releases were again uninspiring. PMI services in the US moderated for the 4th straight
month while manufacturing expansion remained uneven across districts and housing
numbers remained far from solid. Germany business sentiments plunged to a near 2-year
low amid looming growth risks. Exports weakened in both Hong Kong and Vietnam amid
Germany
Hong Kong
Vietnam
Japan
an uncertain growth backdrop globally.
Government Bond Yield
DXY extended its move lower to close at 85.49 amid subdued risk appetite and after
3-year
3.47
weaker data spurred expectations the Fed will likely reiterate its tone of low rates for a
considerable time. MYR pared early session gains to close only marginally stronger at
3.2765 vs a weaker USD. However, MYR weakened against all other G10s but managed to
outperform its regional peers. A weak USD is paving the ground for a stronger MYR but
markets could be turning increasingly cautious as FOMC meeting begins tonight,
5-year
3.63
MYR
keeping a lid on MYR strength.
Trading volume in MYR govvies surged to over RM4.9b transacted, with focus on off the run
MGS 7/16 which saw robust RM3.6b worth transacted. Levels inched 1 bp higher to close at
3.46% level. Meanwhile we continue to see active trading on GII 5/24 with RM380m
changing hands, with levels inching 1 bp to close at 4.12% level. We opine the wide
yield pickup of 33-34bps versus MGS 7/24 continue to shore investors demand from a
UST
7-year
3.78
10-year
3.78
15-year
4.16
20-year
4.24
30-year
4.64
2-year
0.38
5-year
1.49
10-year
2.26
30-year
3.04
relative value perspective. Yield pickup in GII 5/24 just got more appealing after MGS
7/24 yields eased 3 bps to settle at 3.78% as per yesterday’s closing levels. Ringgit
performance remains as a key influence for MYR bonds, with focus this week shifting
towards US FOMC meeting.
What’s Coming Up Next
Major Data
US durable goods orders, S&P CaseShiller house prices, consumer
confidence & Richmond Fed manufacturing
Japan retail trade & small biz confidence
China industrial profits
Major Events
FOMC meeting begins
Bond Tender
Nil
Daily Supports - Resistances
S2
S1
Indicative
R1
R2
EURUSD
1.2635
1.2670
1.2697
1.2700
1.2750
USDJPY
107.66
107.70
107.93
108.36
108.75
GBPUSD
1.6085
1.6100
1.6119
1.6145
1.6180
AUDUSD
0.8770
0.8800
0.8803
0.8825
0.8855
EURGBP
0.7855
0.7870
0.7878
0.7891
0.7906
USDMYR
3.2668
3.2722
3.2745
3.2780
3.2800
EURMYR
4.1435
4.1451
4.1580
4.1590
4.1693
JPYMYR
3.0218
3.0338
3.0338
3.0385
3.0415
GBPMYR
5.2700
5.2750
5.2788
5.2800
5.2880
SGDMYR
2.5625
2.5645
2.5694
2.5700
2.5715
AUDMYR
2.8780
2.8800
2.8831
2.8850
2.8895
NZDMYR
2.5743
2.5804
2.5832
2.5895
2.5932
= above 0.1% gain
= above 0.1% loss
Name
Last Price
KLCI
Dow Jones Ind.
DoD %
YTD %
1823.2
0.2
-2.3
16817.9
0.1
1.5
S&P 500
1961.6
-0.2
6.1
FTSE 100
6363.5
-0.4
-5.7
Shanghai
2290.4
-0.5
23143.2
3226.1
Hang Seng
STI
Source: Bloomberg
1
Name
CRB Index
WTI oil ($/bbl)
Brent oil ($/bbl)
Outlook
= less than 0.1% gain / loss
Last Price
DoD %
YTD %
270.4
0.1
-3.5
81.0
-0.3
-17.7
-22.8
85.8
-0.3
Gold (S/oz)
1226.6
-0.4
1.7
8.2
CPO (RM/tonne)
2186.0
0.8
-15.0
-0.7
-0.7
Copper ($/tonne)
6690.0
-0.1
-9.1
0.1
1.9
Rubber (sen/kg)
394.5
0.1
-26.8
Macroeconomics
Economic Data
US Markit PMI services
US pending home sales
US Dallas Fed
manufacturing
UK CBI reported sales
GE IFO biz climate
GE IFO expectations
JP retail trade YOY
JP retail sales MOM
JP large retailers’ sales
HK exports
VN exports YTD
VN retail sales YTD
VN industrial production
Source: Bloomberg
For
Actual
Last
Survey
Oct P
Sept
57.3
0.3%
58.9
-1.0%
57.8
1.0%
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Sept
Sept
Sept
Sept
Oct
Oct
Oct
10.5
31
103.2
98.3
2.3%
2.7%
0.5%
4.5%
13.4%
11.1%
7.9%
10.8
31
104.7
99.3
1.2%
1.9%
1.6%
6.4%
14.1%
11.1%
8.6%
11.0
25
104.5
99.2
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
6.0%
13.6%
---
• Overnight dataflow turned out largely negative again. Markit PMI
services in the US moderated for the 4th straight month, by more
than expected to 57.3 in October, a 6-month low dragged by hefty
pullback in business expectations and prices charged.
• On the manufacturing front, Dallas Fed manufacturing unexpectedly
decelerated to 10.5 in October, as lower production offset a near
doubling gain in new orders, reiterating uneven growth pact in
manufacturing activities across different districts.
• Tracking recent softness in housing, pending home sales
rebounded less than expected to increase only 0.3% MOM in
September. This affirmed that recovery in the housing market is
struggling to gather speed, dampened by financing difficulties and
weak wage growth.
• Business sentiments in Germany weakened for the 6th straight
month, adding to concerns growth in the Euro region is bracing for
challenging times ahead. IFO business climate softened more than
expected of 103.2 while the expectations gauge also pulled back
more than expected to 98.3 in October, both at 22-month lows.
• On a more positive note, CBI reported that sales held steady at 31
in October, defying expectations for a fall to 25 as higher reading in
the stock component offset the decline in sales.
• Back in Asia, this morning’s Japanese data came in surprisingly
pleasant but we doubt it is pointing to solid consumption growth
going forward. Retail trade unexpectedly jumped 2.3% YOY in
September even though large retailers’ sales reported a more
moderate gain of 0.5% YOY. Meanwhile, retail sales also
accelerated 2.7% MOM.
• In Hong Kong, exports continued to moderate for a 3rd straight
month, growing 4.5% YOY in September as exports to all major
markets namely China, the US and Asia all expanded at a slower
pace. Imports on the other hand picked up more than expected with
a 6.3% YOY increase. Uncertain global growth coupled with
domestic headwinds are expected to pose downside risks to 4Q
growth, putting full year growth projection of 3-4% at risk.
• Key releases from Vietnam signaled economic growth is losing
some traction and marked a slow start to 4Q, reaffirming the case of
a dovish SBV. Exports moderated more than expected to increase
13.4% YOY YTD October, while imports managed to hold on to a
11.2% YOY gain in the same period. Retail sales sustained a 11.1%
YOY increase thanks to a more robust trade sector but expansion
industrial production slowed to 7.9% YOY in October, as decline in
mining & quarrying as well as slower growth in electricity negated
quicker gains in manufacturing and water supply.
2
Economic Calendar Release Date
Country
Date
Event
Reporting Period
Survey
Prior
Revised
US
10/28
Durable goods orders
Sept
0.5%
-18.2%
-18.4%
S&P CaseShiller house prices
Aug
5.70%
6.75%
--
Consumer confidence
Oct
87.0
86.0
--
Richmond Fed manufacturing
Oct
10
14
--
10/29
MBA mortgage applications
Oct 24
--
11.6%
--
UK
10/29
Net consumer credit
Sept
0.8b
0.9b
--
Mortgage approvals
Sept
62.0K
64.2K
--
Japan
10/28
Retail trade YOY
Sept
0.8%
1.2%
--
Retail sales MOM
Sept
0.9%
1.9%
--
Small biz confidence
Oct
48.5
47.6
--
Industrial production
Sept P
2.2%
-1.9%
--
10/29
China
NZ
Source: Bloomberg
3
10/28
Industrial profits
Sept
--
-0.6%
--
10/29
Leading index
Sept
--
100.09
--
10/29
ANZ activity outlook
Oct
--
37.0
--
ANZ biz confidence
Oct
--
13.4
--
Forex
MYR
FX Table
Nam e
• MYR strengthened a slight 0.05% to 3.2765 against USD after returning
Last Price
DoD %
High
Low
YTD %
EURUSD
1.2698
0.21
1.2723
1.2666
-7.6
USDJPY
107.82
-0.31
108.38
107.61
2.4
GBPUSD
1.6120
0.19
1.6147
1.6079
-2.6
AUDUSD
0.8802
0.10
0.8825
0.8789
-1.3
EURGBP
0.7878
0.03
0.7894
0.7862
-5.1
USDMYR
3.2765
-0.05
3.278
3.2675
0.0
a spate of softer US data that continued to dampen interest rate outlook. The
EURMYR
4.1611
0.32
4.1626
4.1464
-7.8
Dollar Index had erased early losses by European mid-day before plunging
JPYMYR
3.0390
0.27
3.0448
3.0246
-2.4
GBPMYR
5.2784
0.25
5.2784
5.2610
-2.5
SGDMYR
2.5684
0.00
2.5696
2.5641
-0.8
AUDMYR
2.8837
0.26
2.8862
2.8786
-1.3
NZDMYR
2.5809
0.48
2.5816
2.5665
-4.0
gains from stronger opening but fell against 8 G10s as buying interest faded
going into early European trade.
• MYR remains likely to be trending towards gains on the back of a
weaker overnight USD.
USD
• USD weakened against 8 G10s for a second day as selling intensified after
on data weakness, closing lower at 85.49.
• Unless US data improves tonight, we reckon that USD will likely see
further selling ahead of Fed meeting.
EUR
• EUR recovered on the back of a weakened USD, erasing early losses to
Source: Bloomberg
rise 0.21% to 1.2698 while beating 6 G10s.
• With USD tilted towards the downside, we expect EUR to continue
making slight advances.
MYR vs Major Counterparts (% DOD)
USD
-0.05
GBP
MYR
Depreciated
-0.05 HKD
• GBP ended mixed against the G10s but climbed 0.19% against a weak
-0.04 CNY
SGD
USD to close at 1.6120, highest in a week.
• We continue to expect weak European sentiments as well as a softer
0.00
MYR
GBP
Appreciated
AUD
USD to keep GBP supported; holding 1.61 likely to keep downside
0.25
CHF
0.27
JPY
0.27
EUR
-0.10
0.00
pressure at bay.
0.26
JPY
0.32
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
• JPY advanced against 9 G10s following firmer refuge demand in late Asian
trading going into European session and advanced 0.31% against a
weakened USD to close at 107.82
• Signs of weakness in the markets, particularly that of Europe, will likely
see a return in refuge demand that firms up JPY against a soft USD.
AUD
• AUD was mostly sideways and had to rely on USD weakness in US
morning to advance 0.10% to 0.8802, highest in 8 days. Despite late rally
in equities, weakness in Asian and European markets condemned AUD to a
lower closing against 6 G10s.
• AUDUSD will be aided by rebounding market risk appetite in Asian
trade as well as a soft USD, but we remain doubtful of extended
strength until above 0.8846.
SGD
• SGD fell against 7 G10s, pressured by weakness in risk appetite preceding
US trading but managed to advance 0.07% to 1.2745 against a soft USD.
• We continue to see SGD outperforming a soft USD.
4
Fixed Income
US T
US Treasuries
T e nure
C lo s ing ( %)
C hg ( bps )
2-yr UST
0.38
-1
5-yr UST
1.49
-1
10-yr UST
2.26
-1
30-yr UST
3.04
0
M GS
UST steadied with most investors expecting interest rates to
remain accommodative in the medium term even as the Fed is
G II*
T e nure
C lo s ing ( %)
C hg ( bps )
C lo s ing ( %)
3-yr
3.47
-1
3.64
C hg ( bps )
0
5-yr
3.63
0
3.79
1
0
7-yr
3.78
1
3.98
10-yr
3.78
-3
4.12
1
15-yr
4.16
0
4.39
0
20-yr
4.24
1
4.59
0
30-yr
4.64
-1
* M arket indicative levels
C lo s ing ( %)
1-yr
3.76
C hg ( bps )
1
3-yr
3.82
0
5-yr
3.91
1
7-yr
4.03
0
10-yr
4.11
0
Meanwhile we continue to see active trading on GII 5/24 with
RM380m changing hands, with levels inching 1 bp to close at
4.12% level. We opine the wide yield pickup of 33-34bps
versus MGS 7/24 continue to shore investors demand from a
relative value perspective. Yield pickup in GII 5/24 just got more
So urce : B lo omberg
Daily Trades Government Bonds
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
MGS
GII
GII
GII
8/15
10/15
7/16
2/17
3/17
9/17
10/17
2/18
3/18
9/18
10/19
11/19
7/20
7/21
9/21
7/24
4/26
4/30
4/32
4/33
9/43
4/19
5/24
12/28
3.221
3.324
3.455
3.488
3.472
3.532
3.533
3.586
3.592
3.593
3.628
3.682
3.694
3.794
3.775
3.779
4.024
4.158
4.252
4.239
4.638
3.794
4.118
4.393
Source: BPAM
5
MGS
RM3.6b worth transacted. Levels inched 1 bp higher to close at
3.46% level.
IR S
Closing
YTM
week totaling $108b. On the data tap, tonight’s release of durable
goods orders, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed
Manufacturing index are expected to provide further clues on the
outlook for the US economy.
Trading volume in MYR govvies surged to over RM4.9b
transacted, with focus on off the run MGS 7/16 which saw robust
M Y R IR S Le v e ls
Securities
expected to announce tapering completion as US economic data
improves. Yields on 10-year seen holding up well, easing 1 bp to
close at 2.26% level. FOMC is scheduled to convene a 2-day
meeting beginning today. Meanwhile US government is expected
to sell $29b of 2-year notes today, first of the 4 auctions this
Vol
(RM mil)
Previous
YTM
331
262
3648
10
50
38
10
15
10
2
16
14
25
2
6
27
1
13
0
3
16
80
380
20
4979
3.365
3.409
3.449
3.475
3.481
3.496
3.516
3.583
3.596
3.566
3.628
3.665
3.713
3.819
3.763
3.802
4.019
4.156
4.307
4.233
4.65
3.776
4.114
4.386
Previous
Trade Date
(dd/mm/yyyy)
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
23/10/2014
24/10/2014
24/10/2014
17/10/2014
24/10/2014
17/10/2014
Chg
(bp)
-14
-9
1
1
-1
4
2
0
0
3
0
2
-2
-2
1
-2
0
0
-6
1
-1
2
0
1
appealing after MGS 7/24 yields eased 3 bps to settle at 3.78% as
per yesterday’s closing levels. Ringgit performance remains as a
key influence for MYR bonds, with focus this week shifting towards
US FOMC meeting.
PDS/Sukuk
On the PDS front, trading volume was over RM606m crossed.
Active trading seen on GG space, with PLUS ‘1/38 and ‘12/38
done tighter to close at 4.85% and 4.91% respectively, with
combined volume of RM110m changing hands.
Meanwhile in the AAA space, we saw Hyundai Cap ’15 traded 2
bps inside to close at 3.66%, KEXIM ’15 traded 7 bps wider to end
at 3.76% and Sime Darby ’16 done 6 bps lower to close at 3.79%.
Other notable traded include First Resources ‘10/21 done at
4.80% with RM40m changing hands. Meanwhile WCT ’15 & ’21
traded at 4.10% and 4.89% with combined volume of RM15m
done.
Daily Trades: PDS / Sukuk
Securities
Pengurusan Air SPV Berhad
Khazanah Nasional Berhad
Pengurusan Air SPV Berhad
Khazanah Nasional Berhad
Projek Lebuhraya Usahasama Berhad
Projek Lebuhraya Usahasama Berhad
Cagamas Berhad
Hyundai Capital Services Inc
National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC
The Export-Import Bank of Korea
Sime Darby Berhad
Putrajaya Holdings Sdn Berhad
Manjung Island Energy Berhad
Putrajaya Holdings Sdn Berhad
Cagamas Berhad
Putrajaya Holdings Sdn Berhad
Malaysia Airports Capital Berhad
Cagamas Berhad
Aman Sukuk Berhad
Genting Capital Berhad
CIMB Bank Berhad
YTL Power International Berhad
CIMB Bank Berhad
Westports Malaysia Sdn Berhad
Westports Malaysia Sdn Berhad
AmBank (M) Berhad
Noble Group Limited
Imtiaz Sukuk II Berhad
Imtiaz Sukuk II Berhad
Hong Leong Bank Berhad
First Resources Limited
AMMB Holdings Berhad
Gamuda Berhad
TF Varlik Kiralama A. S
CIMB Thai Bank Public Company Limited
BGSM Management Sdn Berhad
WCT Holdings Berhad
WCT Holdings Berhad
KESTURI
Cerah Sama Sdn Berhad
2/19
3/20
2/21
2/21
1/38
12/38
11/14
5/15
6/15
7/15
11/16
7/17
11/17
7/18
8/18
5/19
8/20
10/20
10/21
6/22
9/18
3/23
12/20
5/22
5/23
3/15
10/15
12/16
3/19
6/19
10/21
8/17
3/19
6/19
7/19
6/24
10/21
12/15
12/21
1/30
Rating
Closing
YTM
Vol
(RM mil)
Previous
YTM
GG
GG
GG
GG
GG
GG
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AA1
AA1
AA+
AA+
AA+
AA2
AA2
AA2
AA2
AA2
AA2
AA3
AA3
AA3
AA3
AA3
AAAAAAAA-
3.957
4.132
4.177
4.206
4.851
4.909
3.653
3.978
3.714
3.762
3.795
3.842
3.900
3.975
4.029
4.070
4.400
4.249
4.360
4.678
4.699
4.878
4.848
4.518
4.579
3.989
4.423
4.103
4.336
4.619
4.800
4.651
4.411
5.542
5.001
5.203
4.899
4.098
4.569
5.417
30
5
10
10
70
40
40
10
4
20
55
15
5
30
10
5
14
5
10
5
0
10
10
5
5
20
5
30
30
1
40
0
10
0
1
20
10
5
10
1
606
3.956
4.141
4.194
4.203
4.860
4.950
3.461
3.995
3.690
3.689
3.854
3.900
3.902
3.972
4.041
4.197
4.299
4.287
4.381
4.607
4.609
4.879
4.908
4.319
4.759
3.913
4.426
4.112
4.352
4.639
4.544
4.420
5.545
5.295
5.199
4.072
4.941
5.429
Previous
Trade Date
(dd/mm/yyyy)
07/10/2014
20/10/2014
01/10/2014
24/10/2014
10/10/2014
19/09/2014
12/06/2014
21/10/2014
21/10/2014
08/04/2014
10/07/2014
20/08/2014
21/10/2014
04/09/2014
08/10/2014
10/12/2013
20/10/2014
08/10/2014
07/08/2014
09/10/2014
17/10/2014
13/10/2014
26/09/2014
29/08/2013
27/06/2014
03/10/2014
16/10/2014
25/09/2014
25/09/2014
26/09/2014
08/10/2014
10/10/2014
15/10/2014
13/10/2014
20/10/2014
16/10/2014
04/06/2014
16/10/2014
Chg
(bp)
0
-1
-2
0
-1
-4
19
-2
2
7
-6
-6
0
0
-1
-13
10
-4
-2
7
9
0
-6
20
-18
8
0
-1
-2
-2
11
-1
0
-29
0
3
-37
-1
Spread
Against
IRS**
10
23
21
24
51
57
-10
22
-4
1
4
3
9
12
17
17
44
28
33
62
84
82
88
46
52
23
67
34
48
71
77
84
56
164
110
110
114
34
54
108
** spread against nearest indicative tenured IRS
Source : BPAM
Market/Corporate News: What’s Brewing
Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) shares reacted positively to its decision
to acquire the remaining 40% it does not own in Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen
International Airport (ISG). Analysts remain positive on MAHB’s long-term growth
despite short-term weaknesses in earnings and earnings per share. The airport operator
saw its shares jump 36 sen, or 5.11%, to a one-month high of RM7.41. It was one of the
top gainers yesterday. Last Thursday, MAHB had exercised its right of first refusal to
acquire the remaining 40% stake in ISG, which is currently owned by the Limak Group,
for RM1.18bil. It expects an additional 30% contribution to its revenue from the ISG
acquisition, which is expected to be completed next year. (Source : The Star)
6
1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), which is in the limelight for a host of
reasons, is poised to be a major player in the Sabah power sector. The plants
under 1MDB’s belt are a 400MW gas-fired plant and a 780MW hydro plant in Ulu
Padas. The gas plant is to be located either in Lahad Datu or Sandakan. According to
sources, the third power plant that is coming up is a thermal plant that has secured a
power purchase agreement with the Sabah Electricity Board. The hydro plant would be
part of the draft prospectus exposure for 1MDB Energy Bhd, which would be submitted
to the Securities Commission, with a targeted listing by end-February 2015, said the
source. StarBiz had reported that 1MDB was eyeing a new hydro power plant with a
780MW capacity, for which it was expecting a nine sen per kWh tariff, higher than the
6.25 sen from Sarawak’s Bakun Dam.Sources expected that the Federal Governmentsponsored fund would take close to an 80% stake in the hydro power plant, which is
part of 1MDB’s growth pipeline ahead of its initial public offering (IPO). (Source : The
Star)
Rating Actions
Issuer
PDS Description
Central Impression Sdn Bhd
11-year Fixed Rate Serial Bonds of up to RM120.0 million.
Source: MARC, RAM
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Rating/Outlook
Action
AA- (Stable)
Assigned
Hong Leong Bank Berhad
Fixed Income & Economic Research, Global Markets
Level 6, Wisma Hong Leong
18, Jalan Perak
50450 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: 603-2773 0469
Fax: 603-2164 9305
Email: [email protected]
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