JK Lakshmi Cement CMP: INR368 TP: INR427

31 October 2014
2QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Cement
JK Lakshmi Cement
BSE SENSEX
27,866
Bloomberg
S&P CNX
8,322
JKLC IN
CMP: INR368
TP: INR427
Buy
Revenue in line as strong volume negated by weak realizations: JK Lakshmi
Cement’s (JKLC) 2QFY15 revenue grew by ~27.6% YoY to ~INR5.7b (v/s est.
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USDb)
43.2/0.7
INR5.6b), led by strong volume growth. Cement volumes grew 13% YoY (+1% QoQ)
52-Week Range (INR)
383/64
to 1.46mt (v/s est. 1.4mt), while realizations declined ~5.7% QoQ (+13% YoY) to
INR3,931/t (v/s est. ~INR4,020). Price moderation in north during August and
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
-3/194/412
September led to sequential decline in realizations in 2QFY15.
Financials & Valuation (INR Million)  Cost savings offset lower utilization; EBITDA/t up 40% YoY: EBITDA grew by ~58%
YoY (-21% QoQ) to ~INR892m (v/s est. INR846m), translating into margin of 15.6%
Y/E MAR
2015E 2016E 2017E
(-3.3pp QoQ, +3.1pp YoY). EBITDA/ton stood at ~INR612 (v/s est. ~INR608),
Net Sales
25,865 33,471 40,791
declined ~INR176/t QoQ (+INR176/t YoY). Higher volume-led operating leverage
EBITDA
12,606 17,162 21,804
resulted in cost/ton to be lower-than-estimate and moderated 2% QoQ (+9% YoY).
AdjEPS (INR)
19.8 26.6 45.2
Adj PAT grew ~240% YoY (-35% QoQ) to ~INR350m (v/s est ~INR312m).
Gr.(%)
115.5 34.8 69.7
RoE (%)
16.9 19.7 27.0  Other updates: The mother plant at Durg (clinker capacity 1.5mt and grinding
capacity of 1.7mt) is set to commence operations in 4QFY15, while the Orissa split
RoCE (%)
12.2 17.0 24.8
grinding unit (1mt) is yet to get the approval from Supreme Court (wildlife
P/E (x)
18.2 13.5
8.0
committee PIL) and is likely to commence operations by Mar 2016. Surat grinding
P/BV (x)
2.9
2.5
1.9
unit (0.7mt) has received the environment clearance and is expected to commence
EV/EBITDA
11.4
6.9
4.4
operations by 3QFY16. The next leg of capex plan will be evaluated after Durg
( )
EV/Ton(USD)
109
86
77
plant stabilizes over next two years.
 Raise FY15E/16E EPS 14.5%/8.9%: We revise (a) FY15E/16E volume growth
estimates to 11%/18% (v/s earlier 10%/15%), (b) realization estimates of
FY15E/16E to INR24 and INR20 per bag respectively (v/s earlier INR27 and INR15
per bag), (c) lower depreciation and interest cost for FY15E due to phasing out of
Durg capacity commencement till Mar 2016 and (d) lower tax rates (MAT credit). It
translates into 14.5%/8.9% upgrade in FY15E/16E EPS and a target price of INR427
(USD100 EV/t and implied FY16E EV/EBITDA of 8x). Maintain Buy, 16% upside.
Equity Shares (m)

117.7
Jinesh Gandhi ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5416
Sandipan Pal ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
J K Lakshmi Cement
Revenue in line as strong volume negated by weak realizations



JK Lakshmi Cement (JKLC)’s 2QFY15 revenue grew by ~27.6% YoY to ~INR5.7b
(v/s est INR5.6b), led by strong volume growth.
Cement volumes grew 13% YoY (+1% QoQ) to 1.46mt (v/s est 1.4mt), while
realizations declined ~5.7% QoQ (+13% YoY) to INR3,931/ton (v/s est
~INR4,020).
Price moderation in northern market during August and September 2014 and
higher clinker mix ( % v/s 13% QoQ) were attributable to sequential decline on
realizations in 2QFY15.
Exhibit 1: Volume growth maintained strengths
Volume (mt)
13
3,745
1QFY14
3,931
3,744
4QFY13
2QFY15
3,949
3QFY13
4,170
4,075
2QFY13
1QFY15
3,837
1QFY13
3,809
3,707
4QFY12
3,539
3,582
3QFY12
4QFY14
3,134
2QFY12
3QFY14
3,467
1QFY12
3,482
3,269
4QFY11
Source: Company, MOSL
2QFY14
2,920
1QFY14
3QFY11
4QFY13
1.46
1.43
3QFY13
1.44
1.25
2QFY13
2QFY15
1.21
1QFY13
1QFY15
1.39
4QFY12
1.70
1.42
3QFY12
4QFY14
1.23
2QFY12
1.42
1.13
1QFY12
3QFY14
1.13
-12
1.22
1.26
1
4QFY11
2
19 18
7
1.08
7
3QFY11
-10 -10
14
13 13
1.29
11
Growth (%)
23
2QFY14
19
Exhibit 2: Realizations declined INR12/bag QoQ
Source: Company, MOSL
Cost savings offset lower utilizations; EBITDA/ton up 40% YoY



EBITDA grew by ~58% YoY (-21% QoQ) to ~INR892m (v/s est INR846m),
translating into margins of 15.6% (-3.3pp QoQ, +3.1pp YoY). EBITDA/ton stood
at ~INR612 (v/s est ~INR608), declined ~INR176/ton QoQ (+~INR176/ton YoY).
Higher volume led operating leverage, resulted in cost/ton to be lower than
estimate by ~INR93/ton, which moderated 2% QoQ (+9% YoY). It has achieved
significant improvement in its fuel consumption which went down to 706
K.Ca/Kg of clinker as against 729 K.Cal in 2QFY14 (715 K.Cal in 1QFY15).
Adj PAT (Provision for sales tax exemption dispute) grew ~240% YoY (-35% QoQ)
to ~INR350m (v/s est ~INR312m).
Exhibit 4: EBITDA/ton (INR) moderated QoQ on weaker realizations
Exhibit 3: EBITDA grew ~58% YoY on strong volume
653
364
758
851
876
936
785
666
576
436
447
658
788
612
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
702
1QFY14
609
953
4QFY13
4QFY11
981
3QFY13
229
1,128
2QFY13
3QFY11
1,218
1QFY13
892
1,208
4QFY12
2QFY15
929
3QFY12
1,135
412
2QFY12
1,121
738
1QFY12
16
1QFY15
767
4QFY11
13 13
4QFY14
248
3QFY11
8
17 19
634
12
15
3QFY14
18
563
19 19
Margin (%)
2QFY14
EBITDA (INR m)
23 23 23
21
20
(INR/t)
Source: Company, MOSL
31 October 2014
Source: Company, MOSL
2
J K Lakshmi Cement
Key performance indicator
INR/Ton
Net realization
Expenditure
RM Cost
Employee Expenses
Power, Oil & Fuel
Freight
Other Expenses
Total Expenses
EBITDA
2QFY15
3,931
2QFY14
3,482
YoY (%)
12.9
1QFY15
4,170
QoQ (%)
-5.7
1,069
237
795
860
358
3,319
612
898
233
777
776
363
3,046
436
19.1
2.0
2.3
10.9
-1.3
9.0
40.3
1,020
259
846
875
381
3,382
788
4.7
-8.5
-6.0
-1.7
-6.0
-1.9
-22.3
Other updates



Mother plant at Durg (Clinker capacity 1.5mt and grinding capacity of 1.7mt) is
set to commence operations in 4QFY15, while Orissa split grinding unit (1mt) is
yet to get go ahead from Supreme Court (wildlife committee PIL), and likely to
set production by March-2016.
Surat grinding unit (0.7mt) has received environment clearance and expected to
commence operations by 3QFY16.
Next leg of capex plan (Brownfield expansion in north) will be evaluated after
de-leveraging post completion of Durg unit.
Raising FY15/16E EPS 14.5%/8.9%


Marginally revising (a) FY15/16 volume growth estimates to 11%/18% (v/s
earlier est. of 10%/15%), (b) realizations estimates of FY15/16 to INR24 and
INR20 per bag respectively (v/s earlier estimates of INR27 and INR15 per bag),
(c) lowering depreciation and interest cost for FY15 due to phase out of
commencement of Durg capacity till March-16, and (d) lowering tax rates.
It translates into 14.5%/8.9% upgrade in FY15/16 EPS, and target price of
INR427 (USD100 EV/ton and implied FY16 EV/EBITDA of 8x). Maintain Buy with
16% upside.
Revised forecast
(INR m)
Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS (INR)
Rev
25,865
4,810
2,325
19.8
FY15E
Old
25,967
5,009
2,031
17.3
Chg (%)
-0.4
-4.0
14.5
14.5
Rev
33,471
7,513
3,134
26.6
FY16E
Old
32,711
7,483
2,878
24.4
Chg (%)
2.3
0.4
8.9
8.9
Source: MOSL
31 October 2014
3
J K Lakshmi Cement
J K Lakshmi Cement: an investment profile
Company description
Recent developments
JK Lakshmi Cement (JKLC), promoted by the HS
Singhania group, is a North India-based cement
company. It has a cement capacity of 5.3mtpa and a CPP
capacity of 66MW, which makes it self-sufficient in
energy. While the North and the West account for 9095% of its current dispatch mix, ongoing greenfield
expansion of 2.7mtpa at Durg in Chhattisgarh would
enhance its presence in the central and eastern
markets, raising total capacity to 9.2mtpa by FY15.

Valuation and view

Key investment arguments
JK Lakshmi Cement (JKLC) has very strong market mix
with exposure to north India, and is entrying into
east India.
 We expect 12.3% volume CAGR over FY14-17E, on
the back of debottlenecking of clinker capacity,
expansion of cement capacity and favorable market
mix.
 Superior cost structure coupled with 10% CAGR in
realizations over FY14-17E will drive 32% CAGR in
cement EBITDA/ton to ~INR1,235 by FY17E.


P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/Ton (USD)
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
Marginally revising (a) FY15/16 volume growth
estimates to 11%/18% (v/s earlier est. of 10%/15%),
(b) realizations estimates of FY15/16 to INR24 and
INR20 per bag respectively (v/s earlier estimates of
INR27 and INR15 per bag), (c) lowering depreciation
and interest cost for FY15 due to phase out of
commencement of Durg capacity till March-16, and
(d) lowering tax rates.
It translates into 14.5%/8.9% upgrade in FY15/16
EPS, and TP of INR427 (USD100 EV/ton and FY16
EV/EBITDA of 8x). Maintain Buy with 16% upside.
Sector view



Comparative valuations
NIL
Pricing environment is expected to remain strong till
on-set of monsoon. Stable government would be
key driver of demand and pricing recovery from
2HFY15 onwards.
Structural increase in cost base (both capex and
opex) would necessitate higher cement prices.
Revival in cement demand would be key catalyst for
the stock performance.
EPS: MOSL forecast v/s consensus (INR)
JKLC
18.2
13.5
2.9
2.5
109
86
11.4
6.9
SRCM
31.6
19.6
5.4
4.3
199
186
15.2
10.1
JKCE
28.2
12.1
2.2
1.9
88
82
11.3
6.9
Shareholding pattern (%)
FY15
FY16
MOSL
Forecast
Consensus
Forecast
Variation
(%)
19.8
26.6
14.0
20.0
41.3
33.1
Target
Price (INR)
Upside
(%)
Reco.
427
16.0
Buy
Target price and recommendation
Current
Price (INR)
368
Stock performance (1-year)
Sep-14
Jun-14
Sep-13
Promoter
45.9
46.0
46.0
DII
18.7
17.7
13.1
FII
11.0
9.2
6.8
Others
24.4
27.2
34.2
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
31 October 2014
4
J K Lakshmi Cement
Financials and valuations
Income statement
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other Income
Extraordinary items
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Min. Int. & Assoc. Share
Adj Cons PAT
(INR Million)
2014
20,566
0.1
9,604
46.7
1,352
8,253
772
443
185
7,739
224
2.9
7,515
1,079
-42.6
0
1,079
2015E
25,865
25.8
12,606
48.7
1,432
11,174
1,023
380
495
10,037
336
3.3
9,700
2,325
115.5
0
2,325
Balance sheet
Y/E Mar
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Acc Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Current Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank
Loans & Adv, Others
Curr Liabs & Provns
Curr. Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
31 October 2014
2016E
33,471
29.4
17,162
51.3
2,204
14,958
1,491
360
0
13,827
1,045
7.6
12,782
3,134
34.8
0
3,134
2017E
40,791
21.9
21,804
53.5
2,367
19,437
1,257
360
0
18,540
1,967
10.6
16,573
5,319
69.7
0
5,319
(INR Million)
2014
589
12,444
13,032
16,042
1,226
30,300
29,753
14,034
15,719
9,080
0
6,388
1,024
555
352
4,457
5,364
4,950
415
1,024
30,300
2015E
589
13,935
14,523
18,042
1,226
33,792
41,833
15,465
26,367
2,000
0
7,613
1,343
698
121
5,451
6,666
6,162
504
947
33,792
2016E
2017E
589
589
16,655 21,561
17,244 22,149
17,042 12,542
1,226
1,226
35,512 35,918
46,333 48,333
17,669 20,036
28,663 28,297
1,500
1,500
0
0
9,908 12,439
1,742
2,123
905
1,103
498
1,471
6,762
7,742
9,036 10,795
7,992
9,615
1,045
1,180
872
1,644
35,512 35,918
E: MOSL Estimates
Ratios
Y/E Mar
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Cash P/E
Price / Book Value
EV/ton (USD-Cap)
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios (%)
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Leverage Ratios (%)
Net Debt/Equity (x)
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
9.2
20.7
110.7
2.0
25.5
19.8
31.9
123.4
0.0
17.8
26.6
45.3
146.5
0.0
13.2
45.2
65.3
188.2
0.0
7.8
39.2
17.4
3.2
125
15.1
0.6
18.2
11.3
2.9
109
11.4
0.8
13.5
7.9
2.5
86
6.9
0.8
8.0
5.5
1.9
77
4.4
0.8
58.6
28.7
70.4
34.9
80.5
43.2
84.1
54.4
0.7
9.9
18.2
164.8
0.8
9.8
19.0
169.6
1.0
9.9
19.0
178.9
1.1
9.9
19.0
184.8
1.2
1.2
1.0
0.6
2014
3,020
0
0
443
-132
1,032
4,177
-4,924
-413
0
-5,337
-220
2,653
-772
-275
1,385
226
127
352
2015E
4,810
0
0
380
-336
-154
4,205
-5,000
0
0
-5,000
0
2,000
-1,023
-413
564
-231
352
121
2016E
7,513
0
0
360
-1,045
453
7,282
-4,000
0
0
-4,000
0
-1,000
-1,491
-413
-2,904
377
121
498
Cash flow statement
Y/E Mar
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Others
Interest
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg Cap
CF from Op. Activity
(Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP
(Pur)/Sale of Invt
Others
CF from Inv. Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Net Worth
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Divd Paid (incl Tax)
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Opening Balance
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
2017E
10,550
0
0
360
-1,967
200
9,143
-2,000
0
0
-2,000
0
-4,500
-1,257
-413
-6,170
973
498
1,471
5
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J K Lakshmi
Cementto
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
 Analyst ownership of the stock
JK LAKSHMI CEMENT LTD
No
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For U.S.
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United States.
In addition MOSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state
laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOSL, including the products and services described herein
are not available to or intended for U.S. persons.
This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional
investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major
institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as
amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has
entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be
executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer,
MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research
analyst account.
For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited is acting as an exempt financial advisor under section 23(1)(f) of the Financial Advisers Act(FAA) read with regulation 17(1)(d) of the Financial Advisors
Regulations and is a subsidiary of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited in India. This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directed in Singapore
to accredited investors, as defined in the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time.
In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Anosh Koppikar
Kadambari Balachandran
Email : [email protected]
Email : [email protected]
Contact : (+65)68189232
Contact : (+65) 68189233 / 65249115
Office Address : 21 (Suite 31),16 Collyer Quay,Singapore 04931
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
31 October 2014
Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: [email protected]
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