Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030 Working together for a safer world

Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
Workshop „SECA-Compliance“
3rd/4th November 2014
Jürgen Gerdes
Lloyd„s Register EMEA
Working together
for a safer world
In 2013 we said shipping would double by 2030
Status
Quo
Global
Commons
Competing
Nations
What type of ships?
How many?
Which routes?
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
What about fuels and technology for deep sea shipping?
Wind
Coal
Sail
Steam
engine
Fuel oil
Fuel?
Diesel
engine
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
?
Technology?
We have developed a new piece of research
Status
Quo
Global
Commons
Competing
Nations
Which fuel?
Which technology?
CO2 emissions?
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
3 scenarios for deep sea shipping
Status Quo
Business as usual
Containerships
Short term regulatory solutions
Economic growth at the current rate
Global
Commons
Bulk carriers/general cargo ships
International cooperation and trade agreements
Emphasis on environment and climate change
Expansion in globalisation
Competing
Nations
Local production and consumption
Regulatory fragmentation
Brake in globalisation
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
Tankers (crude/products/chemical)
We will need twice as much fuel by 2030
2.00
In Global Commons,
fuel demand will start
decreasing despite
having the highest
transport demand
1.50
It‟s (mainly) because
of energy efficiency
improvements
1.00
2010
2015
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
2020
2025
2030
Up to 11% LNG share for deep sea shipping
100
75
50
25
0
2010
2015
2020
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
2025
2030
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
24% LNG compared to 2010 overall fuel demand
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0
2010
2015
2020
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
2025
2030
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
LNG can work as a deep sea shipping fuel
We are starting from zero
11% share translates to 24% of the 2010 marine bunker demand
Only in 16 years (2014-2030) with a relatively young fleet
We know LNG is a no brainer for short-sea (North America/Europe)
We now predict that it can be a viable fuel for deep sea shipping
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
Different scenarios for CO2 emissions
Competing nations: lowest
overall but increasing trend
Status Quo: worst case for
CO2 emissions
2.00
1.50
1.00
2010
2015
2020
2025
Global commons: carbon policy
reverses the trend from 2025
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
2030
It will be a transition
Change cannot
happen overnight
HFO will have a high
but declining share in
2030
There will be no “one
size fits all” fuel and
technology
Society‟s response to
climate change will be
a driver
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
Hydrogen may emerge
under special
conditions
The birth of LNG as a deep sea shipping fuel
LNG will reach up to
11% of the deep sea
shipping fuel mix by
2030
Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030
Jürgen Gerdes
Marine Business Director
Lloyd„s Register EMEA
T +49 40 328107 310 E [email protected]
Am Sandtorkai 38-41
20457 Hamburg
www.lr.org/gmft2030
Working together
for a safer world
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