The Next Wave of High Tech Manufacturing

Silicon Valley Thought Leaders Series
The Next Wave of High Tech
Manufacturing
2 October 2014
Chris Richard
Clarence Chen
#HTMfg, @ATKearney
Event Setting
■ On October 2nd, 2014, at The Quadrus Conference Center in Menlo Park,
A.T. Kearney conducted the second event in our Silicon Valley Through Leadership
series
■ The event was attended by almost 100 executives and thought leaders from Silicon
Valley companies and academic institutions
■ The program consisted of a presentation, panel discussion, and networking
reception
• Presentation (following pages) by Chris Richard, A.T. Kearney Partner
• Panel discussion facilitated by Clarence Chen, A.T. Kearney Partner
– Mike Dennison, President, Consumer Technologies Group Flextronics
– Jim Miller, Vice President, Worldwide Operations, Google
– Greg Reichow, Vice President, Production, Tesla Motors
Opening…are you smarter than a ten year old?
What is the future of manufacturing?
Value chain
Collaboration
sensors
Applied Materials
reshoring
levels
algorithms
standards
networked consumer
real-time
virtual
M2M
automation
disruption
3D
BMW
Intel
Google
$1B
Flextronics
SAP
Siemens
Purdue
Penn State
unions
communication
demand
process
transform
Printing
innovation
ecosystems
Tesla
Industry
Cisco
nearshoring
IoT
Phillips
GE
lead-time
China
Who is driving this?
$1B
industrial revolution
“Out of Cage” Robots
3rd
talent
industrial Internet
energy
crowdsourcing
big data
What are people saying?
MIT
Columbia
$0.5B Academia
Georgia Tech
Stanford
$2B
$0.3B
NC State
Northwestern
White House Mexico’s Secretariat of Economy
NSF
NASA
NIST
Government
DOE
DOT
$0.3B
$0.5B Germanys Ministry of Edu.
DOD
Do you know the definition of a high tech product?
Traditional
Products
Traditional
products
incorporating
electronics
and software
High Tech
Products
High tech manufacturing evolved as has the demand
for products
Open
Economy
Population
3.6B
4.5B
7.0B
Mobile
Subscriptions
12M
600M
7.0B
Manufacturing
Emphasis
Quality
Cost
Performance
Supply Chain
Profile
Vertically
integrated
Offshored
Outsourced
Lengthy
Specialized
Productivity
Levers
TQM, JIT
Lean, Six Sigma
SC Collaboration
2000
Today
1990
Seven factors are driving change in manufacturing…
Globalization
Supply Chain
Environment
People
Consumer
Requirements
Technology
Productivity
… but four are transforming high tech manufacturing
Shifting
Consumer
Expectations
Additive
Manufacturing
Globalization
Supply Chain
Environment
People
Consumer
Requirements
Technology
Automation
Productivity
Internet of
Things
Shifting
Consumer
Expectations
Consumers expectations will break today’s paradigms
Dominant
product mode
Hardware
Software
Experience
Connected
devices
1.8B
30B
500B+
Personalization
Fledgling
Mainstream
Prevalent
Delivery
urgency
7 days
Same day
Hours
Appetite for
new products
1 to 3 yrs
2x / year
Monthly
2010
2020
2030
Demanding
Fickle
Intolerant
Additive
Manufacturing
Additive manufacturing will reinvent processing
Finish
Rough
Final
Flawless
Materials
Plastics+
Many
Any
Technologies
5
15
30
Printer cost
index
100
53
28
Installed base
23K
2.5M
100M
2010
2020
2030
Rudimentary
Useful
Endless
Automation
Automation will take us to new heights in efficiency
Tasks
Simple,
repetitive
Complex,
flexible
Intelligent,
adaptive
Connectivity
Local
Integrated
Self guided
Human
interaction
Caged robots
Collaborative
robots
Lights out
factories
Payback
<1yr in G20
<1yr in ROW
Taken for
granted
2010
2020
2030
Selective
Integrative
Autonomous
Internet of
Things
IoT will enable products to make themselves
Capability
Connected
Coordinated
Intelligent
Function
Sensing
Automating
Optimizing
Sensor
Position
On production
tools
On devices
Within devices
Interoperability
Spotty
Partially
connected
Seamless
Cost index
100
65
35
2010
2020
2030
Embryonic
Useful
Pervasive
Manufacturers must make two fundamental paradigm
shifts to remain viable in the next 20 years
Design differently
Make differently
• With “no” constraints
• With “no” trade-offs
– Anything can be made
• With “all” data
– Real-time and granular
• With “everybody”
– Customers and suppliers
– Personalized @ volume
• With “new” workforce
– Mission control operators
• With “infinite” footprint
– Inside and outside four walls
Our predictions for the high tech factory in 2030
■ Location:
Silicon Valley, adjacent to design center
■ Specialization:
Mass customization
■ Direct labor:
None: intelligent, fully automated, lights-out factory
■ Operations model:
Mission control center
■ Flexibility:
Extreme: modular, multi-material, configurable
■ Process control:
Tuned to individual unit, IoT sensor-driven
■ Suppliers:
Co-located production, co-located design
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documentation on the topic represented.