M L H

MLH DAILY UPDATE
DAILY UPDATE 11/14/2014
Mike Hall
217-717-4394
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
**** 6-10 Day Forecast: Below Normal Temps. Below Normal Precip.
**** Grain markets lower this morning. Soybeans and Soybean Meal have been the leaders all week.
With all the volume and volatility we have seen this week it’s hard to believe that at this morning’s prices
November Soybeans are trading a penny lower for the week and December Soybean meal is $4.00 lower
on the week. Pressure this morning coming from talk of some cash Meal weakness in the west, continued
talk of imports and a weak CIF Bean market as China has been absent this week.
**** Crude Oil higher $74.26 up .05 **** Gold lower $1155.20 off $5.90
**** The Dollar is trading higher this morning.
**** World stocks, Japan up 0.5% China off 0.2% Europe off 0.5% Dow futures off 2 points.
**** Dalian Exchange, Soybean and Corn futures higher, Soybean Meal lower. **** Palm Oil off 1.2%
**** Weekly export sales estimates: Corn 400,000 – 600,000 Soybeans 1.100 – 1.300
Wheat 250,000 – 400,000 Soybean Meal -1000,000 - +100,000 Oil 10,000 – 20,000
***** Informa out at 10:30 this morning with updated Corn and Soybean planting estimates.
Last month Informa estimated 2015/16 Corn plantings at 87.7 million acres and Soybeans at 88.5 million.
**** China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center says China has bought 1.1 mmt of Ukriane
Corn since October. This takes total purchases of Ukraine Corn by China to 1.3 mmt.
The Center said China has also bought 175,000 mt. of Corn from Bulgaria.
**** The Argentine Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says Soybean planting is 16.8% complete up from
7.2% estimated last week.
**** Deliveries: Soybeans 75 Cargill put all 75 no major stopper.
**** Thursday Funds, Bought 14,000 Corn, 4,000 Soybeans, 7,000 Wheat. Sold 3,000 Meal, 1,000 Oil.
**** NOPA October crush report out Monday. Average estimate: Crush 150.7 mil. bu. vs. 99.9 mil. bu. in
September and compares to 157.0 mil.bu. last year.
**** The EIA reported weekly Ethanol production at 946,000 barrels per day up 17,000 barrels per day
from last week. Ethanol stocks came in at 17.7 million barrels up 500,000 barrels from last week.
**** The USDA reported weekly Egg sets were up 3% from the same week a year ago while Broiler
placements also came in up 3% from a year ago.
**** Another huge volume trade yesterday in December/March Corn spread with over 106,000 trading.
************************************* Cash Markets **************************************
CIF Corn steady off 4.
Nov. +78 to +84, Dec. +80 to +84, JFM. +68 to +75,
AM +61 to +64 , AMJJ +59 to +63
River House bids: STL. up 1 at +3 Havana unch -23
NS rail cent IL. Nov. -10 Dec. -6 JFM -14
PNW Corn trains: Nov +100 Dec. +102 Jan. +103
PNW Bean Trains: Nov. +115 Dec. +115 Jan. +120
****CIF Soybeans steady off 8
Nov. +103 to +107, Dec. +102 to +106,
Jan. +98 to +103, Feb. +88 to +93, Mar. +75 to +85
River house bids : STL off 4 at +18 Havana off 4 -8
Processor bids. Decatur off 3 +10 Bloomington +10 Gibson City off 5 +12
**** CIF SR Wheat steady. N/D +105 to +?? JFM +100 to +130
*** Barge freight: STL 625- 675 IL. River 725 – 775 Ohio 750 – 775
Regional Ethanol Plant Bids
Northeast OH
Central IN
Central IA
South Central MN
Northeast SD
Northeast IL
Today
-20
-35
-60
-16
-42
-20
Yesterday
-20
-45
-60
-16
-44
-20
Last Week
-20
-40
-60
-23
-48
-20
MLH DAILY UPDATE
DAILY UPDATE 11/14/2014
_______________________________________________________________
Bid
Ask ICG Soybeans
Bid Ask Corn Delv. Chicago
ICG Corn
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb
-7
-4
-10
Nov.
+3
Nov.
Dec.
JFM
+15
+14
8
Rail bids supplied by Laclede Trading, Carmel, IN 317-581-8916
(*denotes traded)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CORN BASIS
CIF
DECATUR
S TL
CHICAGO
TOLEDO
Today
Yesterday
Last Wk.
Last Yr.
5 Year Average
SOYBEAN BASIS
Today
Yesterday
Last Wk.
Last Yr.
5 Year Average
+78
+82
+80
+85
+69 1/2
CIF
+2
+2
-3
+10
+8
DECATUR
+103
+111
+110
+98
+75
Barge Freight
STL
IL River
Ohio
+3
+2
+4
+10
-1
+10
+13
+5
+20
+12
S TL
Opt.
Opt.
-7
+8
+4
CHICAGO
+18
+22
+25
+16
+11
+10
+10
+10
+5
-8
TODAY
YESTERDAY
LAST WEEK
650%
725%
700%
675%
775%
750%
625%
725%
725%
-14
-19
-17
-22
-5
TOLEDO
-14
-14
-16
+21
+3
________________________________________________SPREAD DATA______________________________________________
Full Carry % Full Carry
0.1735 72.03%
0.4084 68.57%
0.7015 60.94%
0.2321 66.78%
0.1173 59.67%
0.1471 20.40%
0.1426 43.83%
0.1461 32.50%
0.2946 -114.56%
0.1862 12.08%
Spread
CZ/CH
CZ/CN
CZ/CZ
CH/CN
CK/CN
SX/SF
SF/SH
SH/SK
SN/SX
WU/WZ
Close
-12.50
-28.00
-42.75
-15.50
-7.00
-3.00
-6.25
-4.75
33.75
-2.25
Yest. Last Week
-12.75 -12.75
-29.00 -28.50
-44.75 -45.25
-16.25 -15.75
-7.75
-7.00
0.50
3.00
-5.75
4.25
-4.75
-4.25
36.75 32.75
-5.25 -11.75
Last Yr.
-10.50
-26.50
-39.50
-15.75
-7.25
4.75
16.75
22.25
99.00
-10.00
Pit Volume
109360
7070
12109
1950
628
28225
6024
522
1780
6175
Electronic Volume
131816
10859
9952
5395
10859
2378
28625
5115
6301
59738
This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient
(or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any
unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email
transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted,
corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept
liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email
transmission. The Linn Group, Inc ("LG") is a US registered futures commission merchant and a
member of the NFA. Except as otherwise indicated, references to LG also refer to affiliates and
“guaranteed (not “independent”) introducing brokers” of LG (collectively "LG"). LG does not warrant
the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction.
Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to
its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of LG. All
electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory
authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. At various times, LG or its affiliates
may have positions in, and effect proprietary transactions in, futures, options, securities or other financial
instruments which may be referred to herein. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC
products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate
for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future
results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures
contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.