Daily Gold – currency or commodity s

Daily
Gold – currency or commodity
The gold price has increasingly become a function of the strength of the US dollar in
recent weeks with the correlation between gold and the dollar index on both a rolling
30-day and 90-day basis increasing to the highest (-ve) level since late 2012.
The current correlation between the dollar index and gold is -0.96 on a 90-day basis,
the strongest correlation since November 2012, while on a 30-day basis the correlation
is the strongest since the beginning of October 2012. As a result, there seems little else
really impacting on short term gold price movements with the metal acting as a pseudocurrency.
With both Diwali and peak Indian wedding season having passed, demand is coming off
the boil in India at least. Asian demand generally is still fairly solid however and showing
signs of picking up. More interestingly the supply-side is also showing signs of
tightening up too. This has yet to have a bearing on the price however.
The latest World Gold Council data shows a surge in Indian gold imports during Q3,
coming in at 204mt compared to 91 mt for the same period last year. October imports
meanwhile clocked in at 150 mt, compared to 24.5 mt for the same month in 2013.
Chinese net imports from Hong Kong meanwhile climbed to 68.6 mt in September,
ahead of the Golden Week Holiday, the highest monthly total since March and nearly
2.5 times the level if imports seen in August. Imports were down sharply in y/y terms
however nevertheless they have picked up strongly after a weak summer period.
Complicating the picture in China however is that Hong Kong is now not the only source
of gold imports to China, with material starting to go directly into the Shanghai free
trade zone. The HK data is however still the only source of Chinese gold import
information with other gold imports still rather secretive and a grey area overall.
Arguably, the use of Shanghai as a destination for imports renders the Hong Kong trade
data obsolete, or at best an unreliable proxy for overall Chinese gold imports, with the
true figure likely to be higher.
In spite of decent physical demand, ETF liquidation continues amid low inflation
expectations, dollar strength and robust equity markets. With the Swiss referendum on
gold reserves due at the end of this month unlikely to have an immediate impact on real
physical demand (Commodities Daily 31 October 2014), it seems like the dollar will
remain in charge.
By Leon Westgate
Spot gold price vs. US dollar index
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
02/01/2007
95
90
85
80
75
70
02/01/2009
Spot Gold ($/oz)
Source: Bloomberg
02/01/2011
02/01/2013
Dollar Index
Commodities Strategist
Leon Westgate
[email protected]
+44-203-145-6822
Commodities Strategist
Melinda Moore
[email protected]
+44-203-145-6887
This material is "non-independent
research". Non-independent
research is a "marketing
communication" as defined in the
UK FCA Handbook. It has not been
prepared in accordance with the full
legal requirements designed to
promote independence of research
and is not subject to any prohibition
on dealing ahead of the
dissemination of investment
research.
www.standardbank.com/research
Global | Commodities
13 November 2014
Standard Bank
Global | Commodities
13 November 2014
Spot gold - dollar index correlation (30-day)
Spot gold - dollar index correlation (90-day)
1
1
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0
0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.8
-0.8
-1
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Source: Bloomberg
-1
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Source: Bloomberg
Base metals
A strong start has given way to weakness heading into US trade with all of the base
metals falling sharply. Reports that the PBOC is looking at ways to support lending to
small enterprises helped mitigate the impact of weak Chinese economic data overnight.
That said however, with IP falling to 7.7% y/y in October vs. expectations of 8.0% and
amid suggestions that the growth target might be reduced, signs for further stimulus,
targeted or otherwise will be closely watched.
Copper looked to move higher initially before coming under pressure heading into US
trade. The recent sporadic inflows of metal into LME warehouses have ended, with
headline stocks falling 850 mt and on-warrant stocks remaining unchanged. The
dominant holder of copper cash and tom warrants is still present in the latest LME data,
though the cash holding has slipped form the 50-79% band to the 40-49% band,
though the tom position is unchanged and still sits in the 50-79% band.
Aluminium has also come under pressure however it remains relatively well supported.
Aluminium has nevertheless still failed to break above trend-line resistance on 6
occasions now and needs to rebuild momentum. As noted yesterday (Commodities
Daily 12 November 2014) there is a bit of a tussle going on in terms of the futures
bandings report with a dominant long going up against various short positions for the
November prompt date. With year-end factors coming into play too, the tightness and
volatility in the nearby spreads will help deter aggressive shorts.
Leon Westgate
Bulks
Chinese financial steels gapped lower at the open and then flat-lined for most of the
day before falling away into the close, tracking equities taking China’s macro data
releases in its stride. IO also range-traded again today, for the 6th trading day in a row,
suggesting that the worst of this month’s destock could be over, although with no
upward momentum as yet, due to the availability of significant physical cargoes still on
water to absorb in light of November’s weakening demand conditions (which as
previously argued need to be entirely separated from Beijing APEC).
China’s economic data continued to slide into October. The country’s IP rose 7.7% y/y,
compared to 8% in September, while retail sales grew 11.5% y/y, dropping from 12%
in September. YTD FAI grew 15.9%, compared to 16.1% in September. One State
Council researcher is suggesting retail sales growth may only reach 10.5% in 2015,
2
Standard Bank
Global | Commodities
13 November 2014
although exports may see growth expand from 6% this year to 7% in 2015, while the
1st tier city property sector may begin to bottom out of its excess stocks – something
which will help support steel consumption levels next year, especially needed if China
faces an uptick in trade action!
Shanghai Equities fell 0.36% to 2,486 points, initially rallying post-lunch after
October’s poor data releases, before giving up gains into the close. Beijing continues to
message towards setting a 2015 GDP target closer to 7%, which reflects negatively.
Meanwhile the PBOC is reportedly inviting smaller city commercial banks to apply for
cash injections for smaller enterprises, helping not to kill sentiment completely today,
following the weaker data. Shanghai 7-day interbank rates at 3.10%. As expected, the
PBOC sold a further RMB 20bln 14-day reverse repos at 3.15%, offsetting the week’s
maturing funds, with a further RMB 40bln maturing next week also. Spot Currency
traded at 6.1277, while the PBOC reference rate set at 6.1418.
China’s power generation printed at only 1.9% y/y growth to 444.6 bln kwH, while
YTD, generation grew 4.2% y/y. Meanwhile China’s real estate market sales sales up
12.6% m/m to 24.16m sq m, supported by improved government and lending
purchase incentives, after registering a Sept YTD sales drop of 10% y/y.
Shanghai Rebar Futures active Jan-15 contract closed down RMB 26/t at RMB
2626/t, while the May-15 contract closed down RMB 34/t at RMB 2520/t. SHFE
HRC Jan-15 futures fell RMB 18/t to RMB 2,870/t.
Among physical steels, Tangshan billet prices fell RMB 10/t to RMB 2,430/t I late
afternoon trading. Rebar prices fell RMB 10/t in both Shanghai and Beijing, with winter
sales continuing to contract. Beijing’s night-time temperatures look to be heading
below 0 degrees by mid-next week. HRC prices remained unchanged again in Shanghai
and Beijing.
China’s crude steel output contracted 0.3% y/y (and m/m) to 67.52mt, with daily
average output tracking at 2.18mt/day, compared to 2.25mt/day in September. YTD
output is tracking at 685.35mt, up 2.1% y/y. China’s Pig Iron output fell by a higher
3.1% y/y to 57.01mt in October, tracking at 1.84mt/day, compared to 1.96mt/day in
September and 1.95mt/day in August, suggesting momentum continues to drop for IO
demand.
Dalian Commodity Exchange IO active Jan-15 contract closed up RMB 2/t to RMB
538/t, while the May-15 contract closed RMB 1/t lower at RMB 507/t. Among
physical iron ore, globalORE traded a Yandi fines 58% basis 1Q-cargo at index plus 10
cents, followed by a 1Q Newman fines (62% basis) at index; then a Yandi Jan-cargo at
index plus 10 cents. An IOCJ Fe 65%-basis Dec-cargo sold for $85.60/t, as well as a
MNP Fe 62%-basis Dec-cargo at $75.60/t. Local Chinese platform COREX was quiet.
A private PB fines cargo sold for $75/t.
The TSI Fe 62% China CFR price index was up $0.10/t to $75.50/t (MTD:
$75.99/t). The Platts Fe 62% index was down $0.25/t to $75.75/t,
while the TSI Fe 58% index fell $0.10/t to $68.50/t (MTD: $68.82/t). The Metal
Bulletin Fe 62% index was down $0.22/t to $75.98/t, while its Fe 58% index was
down $0.26/t to $63.88/t. Argus Fe 62% printed at $74.25/t. Mysteel’s Fe 62%
index printed at $75.75/t, while its Fe 58% index printed at $67.25/t, both
unchanged.
In IO supply news, Australia exported 60.9mt in October, the 2nd highest month on
record, up from 57.73mt in September and a record 61.3mt in August. RioT shipped a
fresh record from Walcott of 12.2mt, up from 11.8mt in August and 10.35mt in
3
Standard Bank
Global | Commodities
13 November 2014
September. India’s Jkarkhand state has agreed to renew Tata’s mining licences, while
waiting for its Odisha Khonbond mine to be unsuspended.
The Baltic Exchange Cape index shifted 9.5% lower to $20,702/day, with C3 at
$20.825/t and C5 at $8.541/t, while C4 is $11.055/t and C7 is $11.930/t. FFA
Cal15 capes are trading in the $13,600/day range, while Nov-Dec is trading in the
$17,700/day range.
For Q1:15 thermal coal prices, API 2 is trading at $71.30/t; API 4 is trading at
$66.25/t; while Newcastle is trading at $64.00/t, weakening on the back of China’s
export tax removal threats and ongoing falls in oil markets. Among physical deals, Dec
Newc traded at $63.00 and Jan Newc traded at $63.10/t, up 40 cents on the day.
Meanwhile just as China says it plans to reduce its thermal coal imports by 50-100mt
next year and potentially now even begin to export, India is also now calling for
reduced imports within the next 3 years, further limiting upside potential for miners,
hoping to see prices lift. Amusingly the IEA has just forecast that thermal prices will rise
to $100/t in 2020, due to Indian import growth, although acknowledging European
structural declines from the 213mt imported in 2012. India hopes to lift Coal India’s
output to 1bln tonnes by 2019, more than double last financial year’s levels of
463mt., while targeting 507mt this year. India’s imports are running at over 200mt
this year, with forecasts easily over 240mt by 2018.
Australia exported 31.87mt of coal in October, down only slightly from September’s
31.89mt, as Asian plants begin their winter restock. November’s data is likely to be
lower due to maintenance work at NEWC. US coal exports are expected to drop by
20mt to 96mt according to the US EIA and below 90mt next year.
Zhengzhou Futures Jan-15 thermal contract prices fell RMB 1/t to RMB 497.80/t,
while the May-15 contract was up RMB 0.2/t to RMB 492.20/t. China’s power
generation printed at only 1.9% y/y growth to 444.6 bln kwH. Hydro output fell
13.2% m/m, although up 34.7% y/y. Thermal power output fell 5.8% y/y however
and is up just 0.1% y/y.
China is formally considering cutting its coal export tariff from 10% to 3% in early
2015, which will further weigh on seaborne thermal and met coal prices. NAR 5500
appears to be valued in the $64/t range for Dec-cargoes.
Premium Hard Coking Coal spot prices are trading in the $108-113/t Qld FOB range,
with China CFR prices ranging $118-123/t. TSI FOB Qld printed at $113.40/t, while
China CFR printed at $123.90/t. MB FOB Qld printed at $112.79/t, while China CFR
printed at $121.78/t. The Argus Qld fob index printed at $110.75/t.
China is formally considering cutting its coal export tariff from 10% to 3% in early
2015, which will further weigh on seaborne thermal and met coal prices. BHPB is
suggesting Dec prices for Peak Downs of $118/t FOB and $116/t for FOB, as well as
Gregory at $99/t and Blackwater at $90.50/t to Indian mills.
On the Dalian Exchange, Jan-15 coke price traded down RMB 4/t to RMB 1,068/t,
while the May-15 contract fell RMB 3/t to RMB 1,064/t.
Among Dalian HCC prices, Jan-15 contract prices closed up RMB 3/t to RMB 778/t,
while the May-15 contract closed up RMB 4/t to RMB 771/t. Coking coal port stocks
have fallen to 6.16mt, off 10% w/w, partly due to the impost of a 3% import tax since
mid-October.
By Melinda Moore
4
Standard Bank
Global | Commodities
13 November 2014
Commodities Data
LME 3 month
Open
Close
High
Low
Daily change
Change (%)
Aluminium
Copper
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc
2,043
6,694
2,038
15,470
20,125
2,270
2,060
6,680
2,049
15,610
20,125
2,281
2,075
6,720
2,056
15,794
20,159
2,295
2,035
6,664
2,033
15,381
20,025
2,260
17
-14
11
140
0
11
0.83
-0.21
0.53
0.90
0.00
0.47
LME
inventory
Aluminium
Copper
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc
Today
Yesterday
In
Out
4,402,775
159,950
216,350
389,136
10,115
689,500
4,406,575
160,800
216,375
388,776
9,905
689,700
0
0
0
1,200
250
0
3,800
850
25
840
40
200
One day
change
-3,800
-850
-25
360
210
-200
YTD change
(mt)
-1,055,300
-206,475
1,900
127,500
430
-243,975
Cancelled
warrants (mt)
2,501,050
27,300
10,100
85,992
1,730
109,325
Cancelled
warrants (%)
57
17
5
22
17
16
Contract
turnover
353,380
134,807
56,173
60,680
4,851
110,213
Open
Last
1d Change
COMEX
Open
Close
Change
Change (%)
13750
47320
20,125
13770
47400
20,125
30
140
0
Ali Feb'14
Cu Feb'14
302.5
304.9
2.4
0.79
AM Fix
1,161.00
1,202.00
774.00
PM Fix
1,164.50
15.62
1,204.00
776.00
High bid
1,170.24
15.79
1,211.20
783.60
Low offer
1,157.42
15.57
1,199.15
770.25
Closing bid
1,162.55
15.67
1,200.50
773.70
Daily change
-69.22
-1.52
-54.60
-5.60
1 month
-0.2125
0.62
0.1533
2 months
-0.1575
0.616
0.202
3 months
-0.1025
0.618
0.2332
6 months
0
0.612
0.326
12 months
0.115
0.568
0.5643
30-day RSI
10-day MA
20-day MA
100-day MA
200-day MA
Support
Resistance
38.5
32.24
33.91
46.19
1,160.82
15.77
1,212.52
775.31
1,195.60
16.47
1,236.70
776.56
1,258.28
18.80
1,374.53
834.63
1,280.44
19.44
1,408.99
813.91
1,154.57
15.61
1,196.87
773.75
1,168.81
15.84
1,208.22
779.60
COMEX GLD
COMEX SLV
NYMEX PAL
NYMEX PLAT
DGCX GLD
TOCOM GLD
CBOT GLD
1161.6
444599
50167
15.74
171907
38620
777.5
34843
-1495
1205.3
60794
-240
1162.3
1271
5
4309
94093
-8649
1159.9
4
-309
1 month
Change
2 month
Change
3 month
Change
6 month
Change
96.402
0.18
96.152
0.17
96.279
0.02
97.398
-0.07
715.75
-12.50
711.75
-11.75
724.5
-12.00
729.5
-11.75
807.11
1.83
796.14
1.14
791.38
-0.29
795.17
0.42
99.376
0.30
98.412
0.22
98.029
0.12
97.998
0.11
429.271
-2.71
422.704
-5.76
424.457
-5.41
430.126
-6.08
434.65
-4.54
430.77
-5.75
433
-5.58
440.25
-5.98
467.749
-2.86
460.641
-6.39
458.632
-5.65
461.001
-5.83
Q3 14
74.50
Change
-0.50
Q4 14
77.05
Change
-0.45
Q1 15
78.65
Change
-0.35
Cal 15
80.45
Change
-0.40
73.85
-0.15
74.05
-0.20
75.25
-0.05
76.75
-0.10
Shanghai 3month
Aluminium
Copper
Zinc
Cash Settle Change in cash
settle
2,062.00
44
6,752.50
65
2,034.00
16
15,535.00
445
20,150.00
225
2,274.50
38
Precious
metals
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Forwards (%)
Gold
Silver
USD Libor
Technical
Indicators
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Active Month
Future
Settlement
Open Interest
Change in
Open Interest
Energy
Energy
futures
pricing
Sing Gasoil
($/bbbl)
Gasoil 0.1%
Rdam ($/mt)
NWE CIF jet
($/mt)
Singapore
Kero ($/bbl)
3.5% Rdam
barges
($/mt)
1% Fuel Oil
FOB ($/mt)
Sing FO180
Cargo ($/mt)
Thermal coal
API2 (CIF
ARA)
API4 (FOB
RBCT)
Source: LME, Comex, Nymex, SHFE, Standard Bank
5
Cash - 3m
10.25
67.00
-8.25
-63.50
6.00
-6.00
Standard Bank
Global | Commodities
13 November 2014
Commodity Data cont.
Bulks
Steel—Physical
Turkish Scrap 80:20 (Iskinderun CFR) $/t
China Tangshan Steel Billet $/t
China HRC export (Shanghai FOB) $/t
North Europe HRC domestic (ex-works) $/t
North America HRC domestic (Midwest FOB) $/t
Steel—Futures
LME Billet Cash $/t
LME Billet Futures (1-mth) $/t
LME Steel Billet Stocks—change
Shanghai Rebar Futures (Active contract) $/t
Shanghai Rebar Futures On-Warrant Stocks—change
China Steel Inventory (million tonnes)
Iron ore
China Iron Ore Fines (62% Fe; CFR Tianjin) $/t
China Iron Ore Fines (58% Fe; CFR Tianjin) $/t
SGX AsiaClear IO Swaps 62% Fe $/t (1-mth)
China Iron Ore Inventory (million tonnes)
Coking coal
Premium Hard Coking Coal (Qld FOB) $/t
Capesize freight
Saldanha South Africa-Beilun China
Financials pricing
RMB Currency
China 7-day repo
Shanghai Equities Composite
Source: LME, Bloomberg, Standard Bank
6
Latest Price
299.14
403.00
473.00
417.50
642.00
1-day
-6.95%
-0.25%
-1.05%
0.00%
0.31%
1-week
-10.34%
-1.95%
-3.27%
-1.76%
-1.98%
1-month
-20.34%
-8.20%
-7.62%
0.60%
-5.31%
3-month
-19.69%
-12.58%
-8.69%
-2.91%
-7.23%
6-month
-21.39%
-19.24%
-9.21%
-2.91%
-4.46%
460.00
460.00
0.00
432.76
0.00
10.43
0.00%
0.00%
-0.17%
-3.20%
2.91%
2.91%
4.19%
-14.23%
10.44%
10.25%
-12.98%
-16.24%
19.48%
19.17%
-19.67%
-32.46%
100.00%
99.13%
-22.46%
-21.16%
75.97
99.53
0.62%
-0.28%
-8.28%
-1.34%
-19.10%
-3.43%
-26.87%
-4.55%
-43.81%
33.78%
112.35
0.00%
-1.27%
-1.36%
-3.15%
-22.06%
19.50
0.00%
51.16%
13.37%
39.78%
15.04%
6.13
3.14
2485.61
0.22%
-11.55%
2.46%
0.00%
2.61%
5.05%
-0.46%
-15.14%
11.82%
-1.65%
-1.26%
21.21%
0.57%
-16.04%
19.05%
Standard Bank
Global | Commodities
13 November 2014
Disclaimer
This material is non-independent research. Non-independent research is a "marketing communication"
This material is "non-independent research". Non-independent research is a "marketing communication" as defined in the UK FCA
Handbook. It has not been prepared in accordance with the full legal requirements designed to promote independence of research
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readily realisable and it may be difficult to sell or realize those investments, similarly it may prove difficult for you to obtain reliable
information about the value, or risks, to which such an investment is exposed.
7
Standard Bank
Global | Commodities
13 November 2014
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