Money Morning 24 November 2014
Transcription
Money Morning 24 November 2014
Money Morning 24 November 2014 Indian Indices Index % Change Last Close Page No. 2 Corporate News Macro Economic News 2 Derivative Corner 3 Page No. 5 Price Shockers 28,335 Nifty 4 Event Calendar Sensex Nifty vs Institutional Movement 8000 8477 8426 2000 8402 0 8390 (2000) 8382 (4000) 8,477 0.9 1.9 34.5 12,254 (0.0) 3.5 51.8 CNX IT 11,597 (0.7) 2.3 21.8 Bankex 18,056 2.3 5.9 58.6 Auto 18,925 0.5 1.9 54.4 Metal 11,127 0.1 (6.1) 11.7 FMCG 7,833 0.9 4.5 19.3 % Change MTD YTD 2,487 3.1 4.4 19.5 Nikkei 225 17,301 0.4 5.7 6.5 3,345 1.0 2.3 5.7 Hang Seng 23,437 2.2 (0.5) 2.4 8440 DJIA 17,810 0.5 2.4 7.4 8420 S&P 500 2,064 0.5 2.3 11.6 8400 8380 FTSE 6,751 1.1 3.1 0.0 (0.0) 1.6 10.3 8360 Live Markets 8500 Straits Times Dollar Index 88 8340 (6000) Shanghai 8320 14-Nov 17-Nov 18-Nov FII (LHS) 19-Nov 20-Nov MF (LHS) 21-Nov Current Quote 2,528 % Change Nifty (RHS) 1.7% Volumes As on 08:15 hours IST Hang Nikkei SGX Nifty Seng 17,358 0.3% 8477 14.4 15.0 14.4 14.2 14.1 13.8 14.0 13.8 8426 8402 8390 13.9 13.2 8382 12.6 12.0 13-Nov 14-Nov 17-Nov Nifty Spot (LHS) 18-Nov 19-Nov 20-Nov 21-Nov INDIA VIX (RHS) 5 Day 32 172 139 163 3124 1878 2156 Spot market 1 Day MTD YTD FII (Rs bn) 1.2 78.6 727.1 MF (Rs bn) 1.4 (59.6) (116.7) Bond Market Historical Data (%) 10Yr Yield (G-Sec) 1 Day 1M 1 Yr 8.17 8.28 8.83 Currency Market % Change 1day MTD INR/USD 61.78 0.3 (0.7) 0.0 INR/EURO 76.75 1.1 0.6 10.8 INR/GBP 96.78 0.3 1.5 5.5 Unit Crude Oil(NYME)$/Bbl YTD % Change Close 77 1 Day MTD YTD 0.2 (4.9) (22.1) (0.5) Gold (OTC) $/Oz 1,200 (0.1) 2.3 Copper (LME) $/MT 6,785 0.8 0.3 (8.0) Aluminum (LME) $/MT 2,065 1.1 0.4 17.7 Sugar (LIFFE) $/MT 421 (0.2) (0.4) (6.3) Zinc (LME) $/MT 2,298 2.0 (0.4) 11.8 1,324 (0.6) (7.3) (41.9) Baltic Dry Index Source: Bloomberg Aditya Birla Money Limited Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800 Page No: 1 30 Day NSE CASH Commodities Update Source: NSE 1.9% 35 Last Close 8358 23,871 34 14.3 8431 8383 14.4 0.6% BSE CASH Institutional Activities (Net) Nifty vs India VIX 8,539 Moving Average (Rs bn) NSE F&O 12-Nov 1 Day 1 Day Source: NSE 8500 8480 8460 8440 8420 8400 8380 8360 8340 8320 8300 8280 33.8 Shanghai 8480 8460 6000 8431 YTD 1.7 Global Indices Provisional Figures for Investments 4000 MTD 1.0 CNX Midcap Last Close (` Mn) 1 Day Money Morning 24 November 2014 Corporate News/Results Corner SUUTI stake sale in blue chip companies like ITC and L&T put on hold; Likely to go ahead with stake sale in Axis Bank – Overhang of stake sale gets removed over ITC and L&T; Positive in short term for ITC and L&T The finance ministry has put the sale of stakes in blue chips such as Larsen and Toubro and ITC, held by the Specified Undertaking of Unit Trust of India, on the backburner because it's calculating this won't be needed to meet the government's fiscal deficit target thanks to savings in expenditure as global commodity prices have dropped.The ministry is confident of raising the amount budgeted through disinvestment in ONGC, Coal India and a few others. This combined with savings will mean the fiscal deficit target of 4.1% of GDP can be met. North Block was considering the sale of a part of the holdings through an exchange-traded fund but is now looking to sell only SUUTI's residual stake in Axis Bank. SUUTI currently holds a 11.28% stake in ITC and 8.19% in L&T. It holds 11.7 per cent in Axis Bank, which is worth more than Rs 130 bn. The holdings in the 3 companies are worth nearly Rs 600 bn at current prices, more than the Rs 580 bn budgeted to be raised from asset sales in FY15. The government is already pushing 10% disinvestment in Coal India and 5% in ONGC, which can fetch nearly Rs 380 bn at current prices. We believe this development to be positive for ITC and L&T, as the overhang of the stake sale gets removed. Macro-Economic and Other News International News Manufacturing growth may moderate in December quarter: Global stock markets jump as China, Europe step up stimulus FICCI Global share markets are broadly trading higher as the prospect of Showing signs of recovery, industrial production grew at a three- further policy stimulus in China and Europe whetted risk appetites month high of 2.5 % in September on account of better mining while sending the euro skidding. The single currency was near 28- and manufacturing output. The manufacturing output, which month lows having shed 1.2 percent on Friday when European constitutes over 75 % of the index, grew by 2.5 % in September, Central Bank President Mario Draghi surprised by declaring his compared to 1.4 % in the same month a year ago. "The outlook commitment to fighting deflation. That came hot on the heels of an on the basis of FICCI Manufacturing Survey for Q3 of 2014-15 is unexpected cut in interest rates from the People's Bank of China. less optimistic than Q2 of 2014-15 for the manufacturing sector According to sources Beijing was ready to ease further to head off as the proportion of respondents expecting higher production slowing inflation. vis-a-vis last year has fallen to 52 % in Q3 from 62 %in Q2," the industry body said in its report. Oil Prices higher on China surprise rate cut Oil prices held on to small gains Friday, after an early rally was Rs 700 crore fund to cushion against food inflation: sparked by China’s decision to cut interest rates, fanning hopes for The government will kick off a Rs 700 crore price stabilization increasing demand from the world’s second-largest crude fund soon in a move to shield consumers and farmers from price consumer. The move came after oil prices had fallen 30% since fluctuation of agricultural and horticultural products such as June on worries about global production outpacing demand, and a onion, potato, tomato and milk. The fund would be utilized in the growing expectation that the Organization of the Petroleum next three years and managed by an inter-ministerial panel Exporting Countries will decided to curb production when the cartel headed by the secretary of department of agriculture and meets next week. A stimulus for the Chinese economy is cooperation (DAC). Sources said the fund would be utilized in something that gets macroeconomic investors to buy all kinds of two steps. Faced with a price spike soon after assuming power, commodities, oil included, said Andrew Lebow, senior vice the Narendra Modi government had taken several steps to president for energy derivatives at Jefferies Bache LLC. With lower tackle inflation and setting up of the fund is one of the key interest rates, the Chinese could spend freely enough to support measures. Both retail and wholesale prices have cooled to 100,000 barrels of oil demand growth in 2015 in a best-case record levels but authorities are keeping a close watch. scenario, he said. Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg, RTT News Aditya Birla Money Limited Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800 Page No: 2 Money Morning 24 November 2014 Nifty Grid % Change in Price < Daily Price Change (%) Short Covering KOTAKBANK HINDALCO AXISBANK PNB BHEL SBIN CAIRN RELIANCE HEROMOTOCO DLF HDFC ITC AMBUJACEM TATAMOTORS LT HDFCBANK BANKBARODA ACC INDUSINDBK M&M ASIANPAINT TCS CIPLA DRREDDY BPCL POWERGRID BAJAJ-AUTO GRASIM GAIL COALINDIA NTPC NMDC IDFC BHARTIARTL MARUTI ULTRACEMCO HCLTECH LUPIN ONGC TATASTEEL RELINFRA TECHM HINDUNILVR TATAPOWER INFY SUNPHARMA ICICIBANK Long Built Up 2 1 0 (1) Profit Booking / long Unwinding (2) Short Built Up < JINDALSTEL < -10 -5 0 5 Daily % Change in Open Interest* (Futures Current month) 10 > Note: Summation of three series of future Aditya Birla Money Limited Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800 Page No: 3 Money Morning 24 November 2014 Event Calendar Economy Monday 24 Nov Tuesday 25 Nov Wednesday 26 Nov Thursday 27 Nov Fiscal Deficit INR Crore Oct (Prior 40897) GDP YoY (Prior 5.7%) Domestic US: Market US Services PMI Nov P (Exp 57.3 Prior 57.1) Market US Composite PMI (Prior 57.2) Global Friday 28 Nov Industrial Production MoM Oct (Exp 0.20%, Prior 1.00%) JAPAN: GDP SA QoQ 3Q P (Exp 0.50%, Prior 1.80%) GDP Annualized SA QoQ 3Q P (Exp 2.20%, Prior -7.10%) US: GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q S (Exp 3.3%, Prior 3.5%) FHFA House Price Index MoM Sep S (Exp 0.50%, Prior 0.50%) Consumer Confidence Index Nov (Exp 95.8 Prior 94.5) PPI Final Demand MoM Oct (Exp -0.10%, Prior -0.10%) PPI Final Demand YoY Oct (Exp 1.30%, Prior 1.60%) UK: CPI MoM Oct (Exp 0.10%, Prior 0.00%) CPI YoY Oct (Exp 1.20%, Prior 1.20%) CPI Core YoY Oct (Exp 1.60%, Prior 1.50%) US: Initial Jobless Claims 22 Nov (Prior 291K) PCE Core MoM Oct (Exp 0.10%, Prior 0.10%) PCE Core YoY Oct (Exp 1.50%, Prior 1.50%) New Home Sales Oct (Initial 470K,Prior 467K) New Home Sales MoM Oct S (Exp 0.60%, Prior 0.20%) UK: GDP QoQ 3Q P S (Exp 0.70%, Prior 0.70%) GDP YoY 3Q P S (Exp 3.00%, Prior 3.00%) Government Spending QoQ 3Q P S (Exp 0.10%, Prior 1.00%) Index of Services MoM Sep (Exp 0.30%, Prior 0.00%) CPI YoY Sep (Exp 5.90%, Prior 5.90%) CPI MoM Sep (Exp 0.20%, Prior 0.00%) RUSSIA: Industrial Production YoY Oct Sep (Exp 1.50%, Prior 2.80%) SOUTH AFRICA: PPI MoM Oct (Exp 0.20% Prior 0.10%) PPI YoY Oct (Exp 6.60% Prior 6.90%) EC: Economic Confidence Nov (Exp 101 Prior 100.7) Industrial Confidence Nov (Exp-4.9 Prior 5.1) CPI MoM Oct (Exp 0.10%, Prior 0.10%) CPI YoY Oct (Exp 1.60%, Prior 1.70%) Initial Jobless Claims 15th Nov 290K Existing Home Sales MoM Oct (Exp -0.40%, Prior -2.40%) CHINA: HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Nov P (Exp 50.3 Prior 50.4) EC: Market Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov P (Exp 50.9 Prior 50.6) Market Eurozone Services PMI Nov P (Exp 52.4 Prior 52.3) Market Eurozone Composite PMI (Exp 52.3 Prior 52.1) Consumer Confidence Nov A (Exp -10.7 Prior -11.1) JAPAN: Market/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI Nov P (Exp 52.7 Prior 52.4) EC: CPI Estimate YoY Nov (Exp 0.30%) CPI Core YoY Nov A (Exp 0.70%, Prior 0.70%) JAPAN: Tokyo CPI YoY Nov (Exp 2.30%, Prior 2.50%) Industrial Production MoM Oct P (Exp 0.50%, Prior 2.90%) Industrial Production YoY Oct P (Exp 1.70%, Prior 0.80%) PPI MoM Oct (Exp 0.50%, Prior -0.80%) PPI YoY Oct (Exp 4.20%, Prior 3.5%) S ource: Bloomberg Aditya Birla Money Limited Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800 Page No: 4 Money Morning 24 November 2014 Price Shockers Gainers Company NETWORK18 SANOFI Close price (`) Change Price (`) Losers Change Price (%) Company Close price (`) 59.3 4.5 8.2 RASOYPR 3.2 Change Price (`) Change Price (%) (0.4) (9.9) 3,678.5 216.6 6.3 ESSAROIL 100.2 (8.1) (7.5) SOUTHBANK 27.9 1.5 5.5 BAJAJELEC 216.1 (13.8) (6.0) TV18BRDCST 31.1 1.6 5.4 BALRAMCHIN 62.0 (3.5) (5.3) ALSTOMT&D 423.5 21.0 5.2 BAJAJHLDNG 1,466.9 (71.9) (4.7) KTKBANK 143.1 6.9 5.1 GITANJALI 52.7 (2.3) (4.2) 11.9 0.6 4.9 KAILASH 17.4 (0.8) (4.1) VOLTAS RAJESHEXPO 275.9 162.9 12.0 6.9 4.5 FINCABLES 4.4 AJANTPHARM 258.5 2,377.1 (11.1) (100.2) (4.1) (4.0) YESBANK 703.4 27.2 4.0 ALOKTEXT 11.3 (0.5) (4.0) FEDERALBNK PIDILITIND 147.5 440.5 5.6 16.3 4.0 CESC 3.8 NIITTECH 690.3 381.2 (24.2) (13.1) (3.4) (3.3) RTNPOWER KOTAKBANK 1,199.7 42.6 3.7 JKLAKSHMI 375.6 (12.6) (3.3) DBCORP 375.0 12.6 3.5 GESHIP 397.9 (13.3) (3.2) NAUKRI 959.1 31.5 3.4 APLLTD 435.5 (14.1) (3.1) Source: BSE Aditya Birla Money Limited Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800 Page No: 5 Money Morning 24 November 2014 Research Team Vivek Mahajan Hemant Thukral Head of Research Head – Derivatives Desk 022-61802820 022-61802870 [email protected] [email protected] Fundamental Team Sunny Agrawal FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps 022-61802831 [email protected] Shreyans Mehta Construction/Real Estate 022-61802829 [email protected] Jaymin Trivedi Banking & Finance 022-61802833 [email protected] Pradeep Parkar Database Analyst 022-61802839 [email protected] Sudeep Shah Sr.Technical Analyst 022-61802837 [email protected] Rahil Vora Technical Analyst 022-61802834 [email protected] Soni Patnaik Derivative Analyst 022-61802832 [email protected] Suresh Gardas Advisory Desk 022-61802835 [email protected] Salim Hajiani Advisory Desk 022-61325224 [email protected] Mohan Jaiswal Executive – Research Support 022-61802838 [email protected] Quantitative Team Advisory Support ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR Aditya Birla Money Limited Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800 Page No: 6 Money Morning 24 November 2014 Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorised recipient. No part of the information must be altered, transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements. The information , opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of appearing on this material only and are subject to change. 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