PFL Weekly RIN Recap

PFL Weekly RIN Recap
Desk: 239-390-2885
Nov 13, 2014 to Nov 19, 2014
Last Friday the EPA released the October EMTS data and while the data was in lined and seemed to be taken in stride, the RIN values
have increased just about 20% over the last week. Market players seems to be jockeying their positions around new rumors that the EPA
announcement is soon to come. The sediment is that people do not want to be caught short in the event of a major change in the RVO
levels. We are currently approaching a 10 day streak of gains across the 2014 vintages. The 2015 vintage D4 and D6 RINs continuing to
see their trading activity increase. The D4s are currently trading at 2.5cts over the 2014 while the 2015 D6 are trading right at 50pts
lower their 2014 counterpart. With next week bringing the holiday shortened week, the market could remain volatile as the uncertainty
continues to swirl. Trading volumes continue to remain high averaging 20M per day.
D6 - 2013
57.50
47.50
57.00
High
Low
Close
CBOT ETHANOL
Month
Settle
Dec 14
1.8750
Jan 15
1.7010
Feb 15
1.6300
Mar 15
1.6060
Etoh - RBOB Diff
Month
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Settle
(0.17)
(0.32)
(0.40)
(0.44)
D6 - 2014
60.00
47.75
57.50
D5 - 2013
56.75
47.50
56.75
D5 - 2014
59.00
50.00
59.00
D4 - 2013
57.25
48.00
57.25
D4 - 2014
61.00
51.50
59.25
RBOB
Month
Settle
Dec 14
2.0438
Jan 15
2.0225
Feb 15
2.0259
Mar 15
2.0410
Implied E85 Price
Month
Calc
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
1.4116
1.2605
1.2006
1.1825
BO Futures
ULSD Futures
Dec 14
32.51 Dec 14
2.3590
Jan 15
32.64 Jan 15
2.3412
Mar 15
32.86 Feb 15
2.3291
May 15
33.08 Mar 15
2.3169
ULSD + RIN Value
Dec 14
3.248
Jan 15
3.230
Feb 15
3.218
Mar 15
3.206
Spot Arb Snapshot (cpg)
2.7
RBOB
Etoh
2.2
E85
1.7
1.2
9/25/2014
10/10/2014
10/25/2014
11/9/2014
D4 '14
59
D5 '14
54
D6 '14
49
44
9/25/2014
10/10/2014
10/25/2014
11/9/2014
275
D5 - D6 Diff
1.50
250
FOB Santos
200.63
225
Implied NYH
Anhydrous
221.13
200
Chicago
244.50
NYH
222.00
LA Ethanol
260.50
Argo
NYH
Santos
LA
175
150
125
9/25/2014
10/10/2014
10/25/2014
11/9/2014
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This
report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2014 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
PFL 2013-14 D6 Outlook
all values in millions (unless stated otherwise)
2012 Recap
E12s Produced
E12 Surplus
12,978 per EMTS
2,039 per EMTS
2013 Data
2013 RVO
Useable E12s
E13s Required
2013 D6 production
Est. Shortfall / (Surplus)
13,800
2,039 2012 carryout
11,761
13,324 Dec EMTS
(1,563)
2013 US Ethanol Export (Denatured) estimate
Est. Shortfall / (Surplus)
415.5
(1,147) using estimated full year exports
Summary of 2013 D6 EMTS Data
EIA weekly production avg
D6 RINs from Renewable Diesel
D6 RINs from Biodiesel
854.8 2013 EIA data
196.4 (115.5 gal)
55.2 (36.8 gal)
2014 Projections (Nov STEO)
EIA Projected Gasoline Consumption (STEO est.)
Fuel Ethanol Blended into Gasoline (STEO est.)
Fuel Ethanol production (STEO est)
Ethanol demand at 10% (calc)
8,850
870
930
885
mb/d
mb/d
mb/d
mb/d
Chg from Oct
30
10
flat
flat
2014 D6 RINs
2014 D6 proposed mandate
Less Projected 2013 Carry
Required daily production rate
RIN generation needed per month
13,000
11,853
773.2 mb/d
987.7 million RINs / month
Weekly average Ethanol production
Most recent 4 week average
YTD avg
D6 RINs from ethanol based on ytd avg.
970.0 week ended
945.5 4 wks ended
917.2
through
14,061 million RINs
Jan-Oct EMTS D6 RIN data
Annualized D6 Production based on EMTS
Prepared by Jason Sawicki
Progressive Fuels Limited
T: 239.390.2885
[email protected]
11,850.2 million RINs
14,228 million RINs
11/14/2014
11/14/2014
11/14/2014
Nov '13
8,840
860
870
870