PFL Weekly RIN Recap - Progressive Fuels Limited

PFL Weekly RIN Recap
Desk: 239-390-2885
Mar 05, 2015 to Mar 11, 2015
Another uneventful week in terms of news and rumors in the RIN market. Market participants continue to diligently wait for the "Spring" release of the RVO numbers from the EPA. On a more interesting note, some 2014 D3 RINs have exchanged hands a couple times in the market this week. The trades occurred at $.7225 for volumes a bit under 1 million. The market buyers have been in limbo for some time trying to understand the true value along with vetting process of the producers of the D3s. With more production entering the market, we feel the D3s will push to create a daily bid/ask that will enhance transparency and ultimately increase the liquidity of these rins. The 2015 D3s were being offered yesterday at $.805 with buyers interest increasing at that value. The 2015 D4 RINs continue their snail like slide down on values. With liquidity drying up over the last couple of weeks, we have dropped from $.87 down to current lows of $.805. Daily volumes have been averaging 2‐3 million . Some are surprised by the continued decrease in values in relation to the HOBO spread, but the market will dictate what it wants regardless of technical or fundamentals at times. 2014‐2015 vintage D6 RINs continue to dominate the daily trading averaging 15 million per day. The 2015s have a slight edge in daily volume over the 2014s, but buyers of the 2014s will continue to jockey their positions now and for sometime even after the official EPA announcement. D6 - 2014
72.00
70.50
70.50
High
Low
Close
CBOT ETHANOL
Month
Settle
Apr 15
1.4910
1.4970
May 15
1.4960
Jun 15
1.4930
Jul 15
Etoh - RBOB Diff
Month
Settle
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Jul 15
(0.34)
(0.33)
(0.31)
(0.30)
D6 - 2015
71.00
69.00
69.75
RBOB
Month
1.8264
1.8232
1.8082
1.7928
Imp. E85 Price w/RINS
Month
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Jul 15
D5 - 2015
81.25
77.50
77.75
D4 - 2014
76.25
73.50
73.50
D4 - 2015
84.75
80.50
81.50
2.00
Settle
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Jul 15
D5 - 2014
73.50
71.00
71.00
Calc
0.9484
0.9531
0.9500
0.9451
BO Futures
ULSD Futures
30.97 Apr 15
1.8204
Mar 15
31.10 May 15
1.7914
May 15
31.28 Jun 15
1.7912
Jul 15
31.35 Jul 15
1.8002
Aug 15
ULSD + RIN Value
Apr 15
3.043
May 15
3.014
Jun 15
3.014
Jul 15
3.023
Spot Arb Snapshot (cpg)
1.90
RBOB
1.80
Etoh
1.70
E85 w/o
RINs
1.60
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
1/13/2015
1/28/2015
2/12/2015
2/27/2015
100
D4 '14
95
D5 '14
90
D6 '14
85
80
D4 '15
75
D5 '15
70
D6 '15
65
60
1/12/2015
1/27/2015
2/11/2015
2/26/2015
275
D5 - D6 Diff
-8.00
250
FOB Santos
186.62
225
Implied NYH
Anhydrous
216.62
200
Chicago
144.50
NYH
154.75
LA Ethanol
168.00
Argo
NYH
Santos
LA
175
150
125
1/13/2015
1/28/2015
2/12/2015
2/27/2015
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This
report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2014 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
PFL 2013‐14 D6 Outlook
all values in millions (unless stated otherwise)
2012 Recap
E12s Produced
E12 Surplus
12,978 per EMTS
2,039 per EMTS
2013 Data
2013 RVO
Useable E12s
E13s Required
2013 D6 production
Est. Shortfall / (Surplus)
13,800
2,039 2012 carryout
11,761
13,324 Dec EMTS
(1,563)
2013 US Ethanol Export (Denatured) estimate
Est. Shortfall / (Surplus)
415.5
(1,147) using estimated full year exports
Summary of 2013 D6 EMTS Data
EIA weekly production avg
D6 RINs from Renewable Diesel
D6 RINs from Biodiesel
854.8 2013 EIA data
196.4 (115.5 gal)
55.2 (36.8 gal)
2015 Projections (March STEO)
EIA Projected Gasoline Consumption (STEO est.)
Fuel Ethanol Blended into Gasoline (STEO est.)
Fuel Ethanol production (STEO est)
Ethanol demand at 10% (calc)
8,720
850
940
872
mb/d
mb/d
mb/d
mb/d
Chg from Feb
‐30
20
10
‐3
2014 D6 RINs
2014 D6 proposed mandate
Less Projected 2013 Carry
Required daily production rate
RIN generation needed per month
13,000
11,853
773.2 mb/d
987.7 million RINs / month
Weekly average Ethanol production
Most recent 4 week average
YTD avg
D6 RINs from ethanol based on ytd avg.
944.0 week ended
946.5 4 wks ended
930.0
through
14,256 million RINs
Jan‐Dec EMTS D6 RIN data
Annualized D6 Production based on EMTS
14,302.4 million RINs
17,172 million RINs
Prepared by Jason Sawicki
Progressive Fuels Limited T: 239.390.2885
[email protected]
3/6/2015
3/6/2015
3/6/2015
March '14
846
840
900
84