The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years
Transcription
The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years
The shape of air travel markets over the next 20 years Brian Pearce, Chief Economist www.iata.org/pax-forecast To represent, lead and serve the airline industry IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 2 Air travel likely to double over next 20 years Outlook for worldwide O-D passenger trips, million 9,000 Liberal policies scenario 8,000 2014-2034 7,000 Current policies 6,000 1.8-2.8x growth 2.3-5 billion additional O-D passenger trips 5,000 Closing borders scenario 4,000 3,000 2,000 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’ IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 3 But growth differs widely by market Additional million O-D passengers a year by 2034 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’ IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 4 Developing economies show fastest growth % y/y Drivers of passenger growth (2014-2034, %CAGR, selected countries) 8% % y/y 8% Living Standards Population & Demographics Travel cost Overall growth 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% -2% -2% Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’ IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 5 But US sees 2nd largest rise in numbers Drivers of additional passenger numbers, million 900 800 900 Living standards Demographics Price and other Overall growth 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 -100 -100 -200 -200 Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’ IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 6 Living standards are important up to a point 10.00 Maldives Bahamas New Zealand Hong Kong Flights per capita* (2013, logarithmic scale) Seychelles Singapore Iceland Australia UK Switzerland Norway Luxembourg Brazil 1.00 USA Sweden Qatar Japan France Russia China 0.10 0.01 Uganda 0.00 0 10 20 40 50 60 70 80 GDP per capita (2013, US$ '000s) Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’ IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 30 90 100 110 120 7 They are certainly key for emerging markets 10.00 Maldives Seychelles Belize Flights per capita* (2013, logarithmic scale) 1.00 Barbados Malaysia Indonesia Russia Uruguay China 0.10 Brazil Slovakia Gabon India Swaziland 0.01 Uganda High-income Middle-income Low-income 0.00 0 2 4 6 8 10 GDP per capita (2013, US$ '000s) 12 14 16 18 20 Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’ IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 8 Countries becoming ‘middle’ or ‘high’ income Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’ IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 9 Frequency of trips rises disproportionately Low-income Middle-income High-income Below US$20K per person Above US$20K per person Trips/ Months year/ before person next trip 0.04 300 0.29 41 1.48 8 0.27 1.80 44 7 Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’ IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 10 Demographic change dramatically different Demographic change, 2014-2034 25% Population change 20% 'Flying' population change 15% % change 2014-2034 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% India Indonesia Turkey US Brazil France China Germany Japan Russia Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’ IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 11 Working-age population makes more trips Ratio of air passengers by age group to population by age group compared to average 1.8 1.6 1.4 'Overrepresented' age groups 1.2 1.0 0.8 'Underrepresented' age groups 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 74 75+ Source: UK CAA IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 12 Emerging market population much younger Old-age dependency ratio, % (65+/15-64) 60 Japan Germany 50 40 US 30 China Brazil 20 Turkey Indonesia India 10 0 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’ IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 13 Trend in cost of travel is still downwards Unit cost and the price of air transport, adjusted for inflation 1.5 1.4 2.6 1.3 2.4 1.2 2.2 Unit cost (US$/ATK) 1.1 2.0 1.0 1.8 Price (US$/RTK) 0.9 1.6 0.8 1.4 0.7 1.2 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.8 1970 1980 1990 2000 US$ in 2013 prices per tonne kilometer US$ in 2013 prices to fly a tonne kilometer 2.8 2010 Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’ IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 14 Scope for lower fares on a number of markets Passenger yields and average trip length 0.19 Passenger yields, US$ per RPK 0.17 Within Africa Within South America Within East Asia Within ASEAN 0.15 0.13 0.11 Within Europe 0.09 North-South America ASEANE Asia Pacific Middle Eastrest of world 0.07 North Atlantic China-North America ASEAN-North America ASEAN-Africa EuropeAustralia ASEAN-Europe 0.05 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Average trip length (kms) 14,000 16,000 18,000 Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’ IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 15 Resulting in much change over next 20 years Rank by size of O-D passenger flows in, out & within country 0 rank 2013 0 2034 rank 1 1 China China 2 2 US UK 3 3 India Japan 4 4 UK Germany 5 5 Brazil Spain 6 6 Indonesia France 7 7 Spain Italy 8 8 Germany India 9 9 Japan Brazil 10 10 France 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 US Source: IATA/Tourism Economics ‘Air Passenger Forecasts’ IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 16 Thank you for listening New forecast service: • 4,000 O-D country-pairs • JV with IATA and Tourism Economics • Global, country reports, web-tool For more information: • www.iata.org/pax-forecast • David Oxley, IATA, [email protected] • David Goodger, Tourism Economics, [email protected] IATA Economics www.iata.org/pax-forecast 17