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Currencies Daily Report
Friday| December 26, 2014
Content
Overview
US Dollar
Euro
GBP
JPY
Economic Indicators
Overview:
Research Team
Anish Vyas
Research Analyst
[email protected]
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104
Angel Broking Ltd.
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Currencies Daily Report
Friday| December 26, 2014
Highlights
Japan’s Household Spending declined by 2.5 percent in last month.
US Unemployment Claims fell to 280,000 for w/e on 19th Dec’14.
Japan’s Prelim Industrial Production plunged by 0.6 percent in Nov.
Asian markets are trading on a positive note today on the back of
expectations that central bank of China will introduce more stimulus
measures.
US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) traded lower by 0.1 percent in the yesterday’s
trade on the back of upbeat market sentiments led to decline in demand
for the low yielding currency.
However, favorable jobless claims data from the country cushioned
sharp fall in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 90.08 and
closed at 90.22 on Wednesday.
US Unemployment Claims declined by 9,000 to 280,000 for the week
ending on 19th Dec’14 as against a rise of 289,000 in the prior week.
Dollar/INR
Market Highlights (% change)
as on December 24, 2014
Prev.
day
WoW
MoM
YoY
8174.1
-1.1
1.8
-2.7
33.1
SENSEX
27208.6
-1.1
1.9
-3.1
48.8
DJIA
18030.2
0.0
3.9
1.1
9.4
S&P
2081.9
0.0
3.4
0.6
13.6
FTSE
-
-
-
-
KOSPI
1946.6
-0.3
2.4
-1.8
-0.2
BOVESPA
58497.8
0.2
24.4
6.9
16.2
NIKKEI
14506.3
0.2
-0.1
-17.9
66.3
55.84
-2.2
-1.1
-24.2
-43.7
1182.90
0.8
-1.0
0.7
-1.8
15.73
0.5
-1.0
-4.9
-19.1
6312.25
-0.4
-0.9
-5.2
-13.4
102.89
-0.3
0.1
1.3
3.4
Last
NIFTY
Nymex Crude $/bbl
Comex Gold $/oz
Comex Silver $/oz
LME Copper (3
month) -$/tonne
G-Sec -10 yr
@7.8% - Yield
-
Source: Reuters
The Indian Rupee traded on a negative note and depreciated around 0.1
percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency depreciated on the
back of weak domestic market sentiments. Further, month end dollar
demand from oil companies and its importers exerted downside
pressure on the currency. Also, slow inflow of foreign funds in both debt
and equities markets ahead of the Christmas season as investors prefer
investing from New Year continued with negative movement in the
currency.
US Dollar (% change)
as on December 24, 2014
Last
Prev.
day
WoW
MoM
YoY
Dollar Index
90.22
-0.1
1.0
2.9
13.6
US $ / INR (Spot)
63.52
-0.1
0.0
-2.6
-2.8
US $ / INR Dec’14
Futures (NSE)
US $ / INR Dec’14
Futures (MCX-SX)
63.55
0.30
-0.4
2.60
2.78
63.55
0.29
-0.4
2.59
2.78
Source: Reuters
However, sharp downside in the currency was capped due to selling of
dollars by the foreign banks. Additionally, steady bond market scenario
prevented sharp negative movement in the currency. The currency
touched an intra-day low of 63.56 and closed at 63.52 on Wednesday.
Technical Chart – USD/INR
For the month of December 2014, FII inflows in equities totaled at
Rs.2132.18 crores ($364.67 million) as on 24th December 2014. Year to
date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.98151.62 crores ($16289.26
million) as on 24th December 2014.
Outlook
From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to trade on a
mixed note on the back of upbeat market sentiments and selling of
dollars by the foreign banks will act as a positive factor. Further, steady
bond market scenario will support an upside in the currency. While on
the other hand, strength in the DX along with dollar demand from
importers will cap sharp upside or reversal in the currency.
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
US Dollar/INR Dec’14
(NSE/MCX-SX)
valid for December 26, 2014
Trend
Support
Resistance
Up
63.40/63.20
63.75/63.90
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Currencies Daily Report
Friday| December 26, 2014
Euro (% change)
Euro/INR
The Euro traded on a positive note and gained around 0.2 percent in the
yesterday’s trade on the back of upbeat market sentiments in later part
of the trade.
Further, weakness in the DX supported an upside in the currency. The
Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.222 and closed at 1.2193 on
Wednesday.
as on December 24, 2014
Last
Prev. day
WoW
MoM
YoY
Euro /$ (Spot)
1.2193
0.2
-1.2
-2.8
-10.9
Euro / INR
(Spot)
Euro / INR
Dec’14 Futures
(NSE)
Euro / INR
Dec’14 Futures
(MCX-SX)
77.44
-0.3
1.2
0.2
9.1
77.5
0.01
-2.5
0.78
-8.32
77.5
-0.02
-2.5
0.77
-8.35
Outlook
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – Euro
In today’s trade, the Euro is expected to trade on a mixed note on the
back of upbeat market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX will
support an upside in the currency.
While on the other hand, less volatility will be observed as European
markets closed today on the eve of Boxing Day holiday.
Technical Outlook
valid for December 26, 2014
Trend
Support
Resistance
Sideways
77.35/77.30
77.70/77.90
Euro/INR Dec’14
(NSE/MCX-SX)
Source: Telequote
GBP (% change)
GBP/INR
as on December 24, 2014
Last
Prev. day
WoW
MoM
YoY
1.5558
0.24
-0.1
-0.9
-5.0
The Sterling Pound trade on a positive note and surged around 0.24
percent in yesterday’s trading session on the back of weakness in the
DX.
$ / GBP (Spot)
GBP / INR Dec’14
Futures
(NSE)
98.78
0.23
1.75
1.75
16.85
Further, upbeat market sentiments in later part of the trade supported
an upside in the Sterling Pound. The currency touched an intra-day high
of 1.5564 and closed at 1.5558 on Wednesday.
GBP / INR Dec’14
Futures
(MCX-SX)
98.77
0.21
1.77
1.77
16.82
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – Sterling Pound
Outlook
In today’s trade, the Pound is expected to trade on a mixed note owing
to upbeat market sentiments coupled with will support an upside in the
currency.
While on the other hand, less volatility will be observed as UK markets
closed today on the eve of Boxing Day holiday.
Technical Outlook
GBP/INR Dec’14
(NSE/MCX-SX)
valid for December 26, 2014
Trend
Support
Resistance
Up
98.60/98.40
99.10/99.25
Source: Telequote
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Currencies Daily Report
Friday| December 26, 2014
JPY/INR
JPY (% change)
The Japanese Yen appreciated around 0.2 percent in the yesterday’s
trade on the back of weak market sentiments in early part of the trade
led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched
an intra-day high of 119.98 and closed at 120.48 on Wednesday.
Japan’s Household Spending declined by 2.5 percent in November as
against an earlier fall of 4 percent in October. Tokyo Core Consumer
Price Index (CPI) was at 2.3 percent in December from 2.4 percent in
November. Prelim Industrial Production plunged by 0.6 percent in
November as compared to rise of 0.4 percent a month ago. Retail Sales
was at 0.4 percent in November with respect to 1.4 percent in October.
Average Cash Earnings slipped by 1.5 percent in November when
compared to rise of 0.2 percent in prior month.
as on December 24, 2014
JPY / $ (Spot)
JPY 100 / INR Dec’14
Futures (NSE)
JPY 100 / INR Dec’14
Futures (MCX-SX)
Last
Prev
day
WoW
MoM
YoY
120.48
-0.16
1.6
1.9
15.5
52.80
0.05
-3.18
0.73
-11.02
52.80
0.04
-3.23
0.69
-10.98
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – JPY
Outlook
We expect Japanese Yen to trade on a negative note today on the back
of rise in risk appetite in market sentiments will lead to decline in
demand for the low yielding currency.
Technical Outlook
JPY/INR Dec’14
(NSE/MCX-SX)
Source: Telequote
valid for December 26, 2014
Trend
Support
Resistance
Sideways
52.70/52.55
52.95/53.10
Economic Indicators to be released on December 26, 2014
Indicator
Country
Time (IST)
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Impact
Household Spending y/y
Japan
5:00am
-2.5%
-3.5%
-4.0%
Medium
Tokyo Core CPI y/y
Japan
5:00am
2.3%
2.3%
2.4%
Medium
Prelim Industrial Production m/m
Japan
5:20am
-0.6%
1.0%
0.4%
Medium
Retail Sales y/y
Japan
5:20am
0.4%
1.2%
1.4%
Medium
Average Cash Earnings y/y
Japan
7:00am
-1.5%
0.5%
0.2%
Medium
German Bank Holiday
Euro
All Day
-
-
-
-
Italian Bank Holiday
Euro
All Day
-
-
-
-
UK
All Day
-
-
-
-
Bank Holiday
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