Azee Research

[ Morning Report ]
Monday, December 29, 2014
Market Overview
Lackluster activities were observed at the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) on Friday as
investors preferred to profit taking at higher level. The benchmark KSE-100 index
was down by 7 point to close at 31,993.01 points.
KOHC: Higher production boost earnings
Kohat Cement Limited (KOHC) witnessed decent growth in profitability as company
posted earning of Rs 683 million (EPS: Rs 4.42) in 1QFY15 against Rs 616 million (EPS:
Rs 3.99) in 1QFY14, depicting rise by 11%. Surge in earning mainly attributed to better
retention prices, hike in other income and reduction in financing cost. However, earnings drop by 6% QoQ to Rs 683 million (EPS: Rs 4.42) against Rs 726 million (EPS: Rs
4.70) during 4QFY14 mainly due to lower volumetric sales, decline in other income and
surge in effective taxation of 27.2% in 1QFY15 versus 21.7% in 4QFY14.
Higher volume propel revenue
Net sales of the company surge by 11% to Rs 2.92 billion in 1QFY15 compared to Rs
2.64 billion owing to higher volumetric sales and 5% rise in retention prices. Volumetric
sales surge by 5.3% to 431k tons in 1QFY15 against 409k tons witnessed in 1QFY14.
Local dispatches went up by 13% to 358k tons in 1QFY15 versus 317k tons in 1QFY14
due to better construction activities. While export down 21% to 73k tons in 1QFY15
compared to 92k tons in 1QFY14 due to lower demand in Afghanistan.
Gross profit up by 3%
Cost of sales increase by 15.3% to Rs 1,887 million versus Rs 1,636 billion in 1QFY14
due to due to increase in electricity charges by around 50%. Thus gross profit showed
marginal growth of 3.1% to Rs 1,038 million versus Rs 1,007 million in 1QFY14. Gross
margin decreased to 35.5% from 38.1% in 1QFY14. Retention prices up by 5% to Rs
6,814/ton versus Rs 6,502/ton in 1QFY14.
Rs in million
Net Sales
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit
Selling Expenses
Administrative Expenses
Other Expenses
Other Income
Operating Profit
Finance Cost
Profit before Taxation
Taxation
Profit after Taxation
EPS (Rs)
Source: Company Report
1QFY15
2,925
1,887
1,038
17
28
69
39
964
26
938
255
683
4.42
1QFY14
2,644
1,636
1,007
14
24
63
16
922
44
878
263
616
3.99
YoY
10.6%
15.3%
3.1%
16.3%
14.9%
9.1%
137.8%
4.6%
-39.9%
6.8%
-2.9%
10.9%
4QFY14
3,603
2,578
1,025
22
68
71
92
956
29
927
201
726
4.70
QoQ
-18.8%
-26.8%
1.3%
-24.0%
-58.8%
-3.6%
-57.2%
0.9%
-8.2%
1.2%
26.7%
-5.9%
As electricity tariff has decreased by Rs2.32/unit after increase more than 50% would
provide support to surge in gross margin. However recent cut in cement prices would
not affect negatively due to company has benefit from lower coal and electricity prices
which partially pass on the benefit to the consumers. Furthermore company has decided to install 15 MW WHRP to complete 30 June, 2015. At the current price level of Rs
188.36, the stock of KOHC is trading 7% lower from our DCF based June'15 target price
of Rs 195/share.
Portfolio Investment U.S $ in million)
FIPI (26-Dec-2014)
-1.31
Local Companies (26-Dec-2014)
-5.03
Banks / DFI (26-Dec-2014)
3.95
Mutual Funds (26-Dec-2014)
2.28
NBFC (26-Dec-2014)
0.40
Local Investors (26-Dec-2014)
1.92
Other Organization (26-Dec-2014) -2.22
Yearly(Jul, 2014 up to 24-Dec-2014)
84.75
Monthly(Dec, 2014 up to 24-Dec-2014) -59.00
Daily (24-Dec-2014)
-0.76
Total Portfolio Investment (28-Nov-2014) 6029
1
Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) has struck oil
and gas at its exploration well in Sanghar District,
Sindh, the state-run firm said on Friday, referring
to a region where the company previously made
five successful discoveries during the year. PPL
said the well produced a flow rate of 2,100 barrels per day condensate and 11.05 million cubic
feet of gas per day in the initial test.
The total liquid foreign exchange reserves held
by the country surged by 7.5 percent to $15.098
billion as of December 19, 2014 because of
$1.221 billion inflows, the central bank said.
Weighted average banking spreads registered a
minimal uptick in November, clocking in at 5.82
percent, up one basis points as compared to
October, a central bank statement said. Lending
rates for November clocked in at 10.93 percent,
up 1bps, while deposit rates remained
unchanged at 5.11 percent as compared to
October 2014, it said.
Pakistan on Saturday defended lifting moratorium on death penalty in terrorism related cases,
saying that the country is facing 'difficult circumstances.' 'Unusual situations demand extraordinary measures to cope with the challenges,' the
prime minister spokesman said after UN chief
urged Pakistan to halt executions. Musaddiq
Malik, the PM's spokesman, further said that
Pakistan respects international community.
Outlook
NCCPL (U.S $ in million)
News Update
The government has given tax exemption to Hub
Power Company (Hubco) on demerger of Hubco
Narowal Project after the latter pleaded that the
company's cash flow and profit would decline
significantly and it would not have sufficient
funds for conversion of 1292 MW power plant to
coal and for setting up a new power plant.
KSE Statistics
Indices
All Share Index
KSE-30TM Index
KSE-100TM Index
Turnover
All Share Index
KSE-30TM Index
KSE-100TM Index
December 26, 2014
23,244.59
20,779.69
31,993.01
209,893,530
72,781,750
151,928,690
[ Morning Report ]
Monday, December 29, 2014
Pivot Analysis
Company
Board Meetings
CR
RSI
Buy 1
Buy 2
Sell 1
Sell 2
Pivot
KSE 100 INDEX
31993.01
59.88
31,904 31,814
32,112
32,231
32,023
Attock Cement
195.49
61.65
193.70 191.90
197.60
199.65
195.80
Adamjee Insurance
49.58
52.89
49.05
48.50
50.35
51.15
49.80
Askari Bank
22.58
55.56
22.35
22.10
22.85
23.10
22.60
Azgard Nine
5.85
48.16
5.75
5.70
5.95
6.05
5.90
Attock Petroleum
525.06
44.76
520.70 516.35
529.70
534.35
525.35
Attock Refinery
184.66
36.82
180.45 176.20
189.45
194.20
185.20
Bank Al-Falah
32.56
65.09
31.85
31.10
33.00
33.45
BankIslami Pak
9.96
43.74
9.90
9.85
10.00
Bank.Of.Punjab
10.86
78.47
10.70
10.55
Faysal Bank
17.82
56.75
17.65
Fauji Cement
24.66
61.58
Fauji Fert Bin
44.94
62.00
Company
DATE
TIME
Pak Synthetics Ltd
29-12-2014
3:30
Khairpur Sugar Mills Ltd
30-12-2014
2:30
Mehran Sugar Mills Ltd
30-12-2014 11:30
Unilever Pak Foods Ltd
04-03-2015
2:30
Key Data
Money Market
T-Bills (3 Mths)
24-Dec-2014
9.48%
32.30
T-Bills (6 Mths)
24-Dec-2014
9.48%
10.05
9.95
T-Bills (12 Mths)
24-Dec-2014
9.47%
Discount Rate
15-Nov-2014
9.50%
11.05
11.20
10.90
Kibor (1 Mth)
26-Dec-2014
9.88%
17.45
18.00
18.15
17.80
Kibor (3 Mths)
26-Dec-2014
9.63%
24.40
24.20
24.95
25.20
24.70
Kibor (6 Mths)
26-Dec-2014
9.64%
Kibor (9 Mths)
26-Dec-2014
9.90%
44.25
43.60
46.00
47.00
45.30
Kibor (1 Yr)
26-Dec-2014
9.92%
Fauji Fertilizer
117.18
43.81
116.80 116.40
117.80
118.40
117.40
P.I.B (3 Yrs)
26-Dec-2014
10.05%
Habib Bank Ltd
218.56
61.21
217.05 215.55
221.05
223.50
219.50
P.I.B (5 Yrs)
26-Dec-2014
10.25%
P.I.B (10 Yrs)
26-Dec-2014
11.02%
Hub Power
79.88
69.40
75.95
81.00
82.15
79.05
P.I.B (15 Yrs)
26-Dec-2014
11.55%
ICI Pakistan
449.77
20.30
444.85 439.90
457.85
465.90
452.90
P.I.B (20 Yrs)
26-Dec-2014
11.70%
Lucky Cement
486.39
54.79
482.75 479.15
492.50
498.60
488.90
P.I.B (30 Yrs)
26-Dec-2014
11.80%
MCB Bank Ltd
299.78
61.48
297.50 295.20
302.60
305.40
300.30
Commodities
Maple Leaf Cement
44.24
76.44
43.45
42.65
44.75
45.20
43.90
National Bank
67.41
67.20
66.75
66.10
67.80
68.20
67.15
Nishat Mills
118.40
42.20
117.80 117.20
119.25
120.10
118.65
Pak Petroleum
179.40
39.08
177.45 175.50
181.90
184.40
179.95
22.78
59.27
23.05
23.35
22.65
P.T.C.L.A
77.90
22.35
21.95
CR = Yesterday's Closing Rate; RSI = 14 day RSI.
RSI Indication: Less than 30 Indicate oversold position & Greater than 70
Indicate overbought position.
2
Crude Oil (brent)$/bbl
Crude Oil (WTI)$/bbl
Cotton $/lb
Gold $/ozs
Silver $/ozs
Malaysian Palm $
GOLD (PMEX) PKR
KHI Cotton 40Kg PKR
60.10
55.69
61.66
1,194.38
16.10
635
38,645
5,144
Monday, December 29, 2014
MTS Leverage Position
Unrel Volume
26-Dec-14
24-Dec-14
Chg DoD %
Symbol
AHCL
AICL
AKBL
ATRL
BAFL
BAHL
BOP
CHCC
DAWH
DGKC
EFOODS
ENGRO
EPCL
FABL
FATIMA
FCCL
FFBL
FFC
HUBC
KEL
LPCL
LUCK
MCB
MLCF
NBP
NCL
NML
NPL
OGDC
PAEL
PIOC
PKGP
PPL
PSO
PTC
SNGP
SSGC
UBL
TOTAL
Unrel Value
70,398,020 2,783,658,170
69,609,420 2,691,441,559
1.13%
3.43%
Unrel Volume
Unrel Value
40,200
791,600
2,002,100
84,225,087
1,116,500
20,950,191
438,200
70,354,467
1,027,000
26,856,692
46,500
1,839,753
18,304,400
147,897,077
665,000
39,155,768
5,000
329,524
1,771,000
155,916,973
1,298,900
113,536,506
3,759,700
663,702,375
3,209,000
46,031,976
2,632,000
71,679,094
1,409,000
28,400,343
243,000
9,239,762
74,300
7,415,718
1,690,000
102,930,240
4,097,500
29,404,400
5,015,000
71,673,126
54,700
22,202,285
25,000
6,377,900
1,183,000
42,452,218
1,542,000
85,574,082
955,000
35,422,884
723,080
73,220,271
6,000
235,102
181,700
31,612,593
1,248,000
38,570,161
1,065,000
71,059,223
344,000
7,591,410
1,162,040
174,409,991
475,900
144,781,347
5,650,000
104,179,739
1,036,500
23,762,741
5,447,000
166,405,585
454,800
63,469,966
70,398,020 2,783,658,170
MTS Volume
6,282,000
5,812,600
8.08%
MTS Volume
86,000
71,000
527,500
15,100
149,500
12,500
60,000
90,000
202,500
128,500
869,400
819,000
933,500
293,000
200,000
1,200
72,000
1,000
225,000
27,600
2,100
289,000
81,500
10,800
2,000
210,500
5,500
56,400
56,700
222,500
50,500
448,500
61,700
6,282,000
MTS Value
389,892,208
338,933,135
15.04%
MTS Value
1,953,456
2,984,623
10,115,747
2,356,756
4,125,205
509,821
551,920
5,303,408
19,282,857
11,460,919
165,322,433
12,311,487
27,342,671
6,134,590
7,589,258
119,601
4,879,649
7,807
3,264,323
11,388,963
534,333
16,555,322
3,136,063
1,088,341
361,058
14,984,010
126,755
8,589,469
17,197,417
4,302,725
1,245,436
15,380,377
9,385,411
389,892,208
Total Volume
76,680,020
75,422,020
1.67%
Total Volume
126,200
2,073,100
1,644,000
453,300
1,176,500
59,000
18,364,400
755,000
5,000
1,973,500
1,427,400
4,629,100
4,028,000
3,565,500
1,702,000
443,000
75,500
1,762,000
4,098,500
5,240,000
82,300
27,100
1,183,000
1,831,000
1,036,500
733,880
6,000
183,700
1,248,000
1,275,500
349,500
1,218,440
532,600
5,872,500
1,087,000
5,895,500
516,500
76,680,020
Total Value
MTS Rate
3,173,550,378
3,030,374,694
4.72%
17.26
17.63
-37 bps
Total Value
MTS Rate
2,745,056
87,209,710
31,065,938
72,711,223
30,981,896
2,349,574
148,448,997
44,459,176
329,524
175,199,831
124,997,425
829,024,808
58,343,464
99,021,764
34,534,933
16,829,020
7,535,320
107,809,889
29,412,207
74,937,449
33,591,247
6,912,233
42,452,218
102,129,405
38,558,947
74,308,612
235,102
31,973,651
38,570,161
86,043,233
7,718,165
182,999,460
161,978,764
108,482,463
25,008,177
181,785,961
72,855,377
3,173,550,378
17.86
17.86
17.84
17.85
16.22
17.60
17.86
17.86
16.47
16.53
17.39
17.73
17.42
17.84
16.90
17.48
15.00
17.86
17.86
15.27
17.86
17.86
17.39
17.14
15.00
17.86
17.86
16.83
16.65
17.12
17.86
17.83
17.20
17.26
CORPORATE OFFICE.
Suite # 208 2nd floor, Business & Finance Centre,
Main I.I. Chundrigar Road, Karachi, Pakistan.
Tel: 111-293-293, 021-2467131-40
Email: [email protected]
Risk Disclosure
This report has been prepared by AZEE Securities (Pvt) Limited and the information contained in the Product is
intended solely for the recipient or attached skilled individuals of the firm. The Firm accepts no liability whatsoever
for the actions of individual, collateral or third parties in all over Pakistan and abroad as well. This report is provided solely for the information of professional advisers who are expected to make their own investment decisions
without undue reliance on this report and AZEE Securities (Pvt) Limited accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any
direct or indirect consequential loss arising from any use of this report contents. All rights reserved. The material
contained in this report is based on data obtained from sources we deem to be reliable and without prior written
permission this information is provided on an "as is" basis.
3
Karachi Stock Exchange (Guarantee) Ltd. (Registered)
33, Ground Floor, Karachi Stock Exchange, Stock
Exchange Road, Karachi – 74000, Pakistan.
Tel: 021-2473513-22 Fax: 021-2473519
Email: [email protected]
CALL: 111-AZE-AZE
URL: http://www.azeetrade.com
Email: [email protected]