AZEE MORNING REPORT.qxd - Investor Guide Pakistan

[ Morning Report ]
Monday, January 19, 2015
Market Overview
Recovery in oil prices on global front helped market to maintain Positivity. Higher level
of foreign interest seemed a major cause boosting market. The benchmark KSE-100
index closed up by 20.83 point to close at 33,786.44 points.
NML - Heading towards betterment
In our today's morning report we would present our outlook on Nishat Mills Limited
(NML) along with recommendation for the investors.
Earning to decline in FY15 but would recover in FY16
We expect company to post drop in earnings growth of 24% to Rs 4.17 billion (EPS: Rs
11.89) in FY15 against Rs 5.51 billion (EPS: Rs 15.68) in FY14. This is primarily expected
owing to rising energy cost, sharp appreciation of PKR, lower sales, hike in financing
cost and substantial decline in other income.
Currency appreciation drags top line
We expect NML net sales to drop by 4% Rs 52.53 billion in FY15 compared to Rs 54.44
billion in FY14 likely due to currency appreciation and poor performance of spinning
sector. Spinning segment revenue likely to fall by around 14% due to lower prices
expected of yarn prices.
Lower cotton prices required lower working capital
We expect lower cotton prices of around Rs 5,300/maund would be positive for the
company as it would require less working capital which ultimately resulted into higher
sales in the future. We expect prices would remain in the range of Rs 5,000 6,000/maund in FY15. This will standardize gross margins to historical levels of around
15% in the future.
Dividend Income likely to support bottom-line
Nishat mills Ltd has a major portfolio investment in his group companies like DG. Khan
cement Limited, MCB Bank Limited, Nishat Power Limited, Lalpir, Pakgen Power
Limited & Nishat Chunian. As per financial results FY14, dividend income contributes
Rs 2,948 million (81% of total earning) which is expected to surge to Rs 3,036 million
in FY15. In term of contribution in dividend income in FY15, MCB Bank expected to contribute by 34% followed by NPL by 31%.
GSP Plus status likely to continues
After Pakistani finally succeeded to get the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP)
plus status from European Parliament allowing duty free access to Pakistani products
to EU market some doubt were created once death penalty imposed recently, we
expect it would not affect as European Union knows Pakistan scenario well.
FY13A
EPS ( Rs)
16.63
Book Value (Rs/share)
167.57
DPS (Rs)
4
P/E (x)
7.89
P/BV(x)
0.78
Dividend Yield (%)
3.0
Dividend Payout (%)
24.05
Source: Company Reports & AZEE Research
FY14A
15.68
195.08
4
8.37
0.67
3.0
25.51
FY15E
11.89
205.68
4
11.03
0.64
3.0
33.65
News Update
Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar invited Japanese
businessmen to expand their business operations in Pakistan which has been providing competitive incentives to the foreign investors. In a
meeting with Japan-Pakistan Business
Cooperation Committee (JPBCC) member companies in Tokyo, Dar said that the international
financial institutions restarted working with
Pakistan, which he said was not as has been in
2012. He said the Japanese companies could
take advantage of the 2012 law on special economic zones, adding the government would also
announce a new auto policy soon. He urged
them to set up textile industry in Pakistan to take
advantage of cheap labour as well as possibility
to export to Europe under the GSP Plus scheme.
Federal Minister for Commerce Engineer
Khurram Dastgir Khan has said that the government was providing best opportunities to the
traders, industrialists and exporters for their
business. He assured the business community to
remove all the flaws and hurdles from the
smooth way of trade development in the country by taking the traders community into confidence, enabling country's trade and export sectors to meet the international trade challenges
under the prevailing WTO Regime.
FY16F
19.63
224.03
5
6.68
0.59
3.8
25.47
Recommendation
We maintain positive stance for NML, with SOTP valuation of Rs 146/share after applying 30% discount on portfolio value.
NCCPL (U.S $ in million)
Portfolio Investment U.S $ in million)
FIPI (16-Jan-2015)
6.63
Local Companies (16-Jan-2015)
-4.81
Banks / DFI (16-Jan-2015)
0.26
Mutual Funds (16-Jan-2015)
1.92
NBFC (16-Jan-2015)
0.04
Local Investors (16-Jan-2015)
-4.14
Other Organization (16-Jan-2015) 0.11
Yearly(Jul, 2014 up to 15-Jan-2015)
Monthly(Jan, 2015 up to 15-Jan-2015)
Daily (15-Jan-2015)
75.26
-10.82
-1.03
Total Portfolio Investment (26-Dec-2014) 6095
1
KSE Statistics
Indices
All Share Index
KSE-30TM Index
KSE-100TM Index
Turnover
All Share Index
KSE-30TM Index
KSE-100TM Index
January 16, 2015
24,446.87
21,799.48
33,786.44
344,750,510
110,816,750
215,170,370
[ Morning Report ]
Monday, January 19, 2015
Pivot Analysis
Company
KSE 100 INDEX
Board Meetings
CR
RSI
Buy 1
Buy 2
Sell 1
Sell 2
Pivot
Company
DATE
TIME
Byco Petroleum Pak Ltd
19-01-2015
3:15
Asia Insurance
19-01-2015 11:00
33786.44
78.05
33,689 33,592
33,919
34,052
33,822
Allied Bank Limited
114.80
54.72
114.20 113.60
115.20
115.60
114.60
Pak Cables
19-01-2015 12:00
Attock Cement
206.30
59.03
203.35 200.45
208.85
211.40
205.95
Mirpurkhas Sugar Mills
20-01-2015
Adamjee Insurance
52.82
65.84
52.50
52.15
53.30
53.75
52.95
International Steel
20-01-2015 10:30
Askari Bank
24.11
65.29
24.00
23.90
24.20
24.30
24.10
Hinopak Motors
21-01-2015
Azgard Nine
6.31
57.85
6.20
6.05
6.50
6.65
6.35
Attock Petroleum
588.26
74.15
575.50 562.75
595.50
602.75
582.75
Attock Refinery
204.09
62.60
203.05 202.05
205.90
207.75
204.90
Bank Al-Falah
33.74
60.03
33.60
33.45
33.95
34.15
33.80
T-Bills (3 Mths)
07-Jan-2015
9.14%
BankIslami Pak
9.95
45.38
9.90
9.80
10.05
10.10
9.95
T-Bills (6 Mths)
07-Jan-2015
9.25%
Bank.Of.Punjab
10.93
65.81
10.80
10.70
11.10
11.25
11.00
T-Bills (12 Mths)
07-Jan-2015
9.15%
D.G.K.Cement
118.23
68.25
117.25 116.30
119.70
121.20
118.75
Discount Rate
15-Nov-2014
9.50%
Engro Corp
257.68
73.15
255.95 254.20
259.60
261.50
257.85
Kibor (1 Mth)
16-Jan-2015
9.58%
Faysal Bank
18.56
60.81
18.45
18.30
18.80
19.00
18.65
Kibor (3 Mths)
16-Jan-2015
9.31%
Fauji Cement
28.79
74.30
28.65
28.50
29.05
29.25
28.85
Kibor (6 Mths)
16-Jan-2015
9.29%
Fauji Fert Bin
47.13
61.25
46.85
46.55
47.55
48.00
47.30
Kibor (9 Mths)
16-Jan-2015
9.46%
Fauji Fertilizer
123.11
71.01
122.40 121.65
123.60
124.05
122.85
Kibor (1 Yr)
16-Jan-2015
9.46%
Habib Bank Ltd
215.70
49.93
214.15 212.55
218.15
220.60
216.55
P.I.B (3 Yrs)
16-Jan-2015
9.12%
P.I.B (5 Yrs)
16-Jan-2015
9.46%
Hub Power
84.19
67.08
81.75
85.45
86.75
84.25
P.I.B (10 Yrs)
16-Jan-2015
10.23%
ICI Pakistan
509.17
55.27
506.45 503.70
513.45
517.70
510.70
P.I.B (15 Yrs)
16-Jan-2015
11.20%
Lucky Cement
505.80
56.72
501.85 497.95
509.35
512.95
505.45
P.I.B (20 Yrs)
16-Jan-2015
11.45%
MCB Bank Ltd
326.11
72.15
321.40 316.70
329.40
332.70
324.70
P.I.B (30 Yrs)
16-Jan-2015
11.75%
Maple Leaf Cement
48.29
77.39
47.85
47.45
48.70
49.15
48.30
National Bank
70.47
73.12
69.60
68.70
71.10
71.80
70.25
2.66
68.93
2.60
2.50
2.75
2.85
2.65
Oil & Gas Dev. XD
207.97
42.80
206.80 205.65
209.80
211.65
208.65
P.S.O. XD
355.33
49.56
350.10 344.90
358.95
362.60
353.75
P.T.C.L.A
25.12
57.33
24.65
24.15
26.00
26.85
25.50
Sui North Gas
28.74
59.08
28.55
28.30
29.10
29.45
28.90
Jah Siddiq Co
17.34
44.21
16.90
16.45
17.90
18.45
17.45
NIB Bank
82.95
CR = Yesterday's Closing Rate; RSI = 14 day RSI.
RSI Indication: Less than 30 Indicate oversold position & Greater than 70
Indicate overbought position.
2
3:30
2:00
Key Data
Money Market
Commodities
Crude Oil (brent)$/bbl
Crude Oil (WTI)$/bbl
Cotton $/lb
Gold $/ozs
Silver $/ozs
Malaysian Palm $
GOLD (PMEX) PKR
KHI Cotton 40Kg PKR
49.70
47.12
59.41
1,268.20
17.15
650
41,450
5,305
Monday, January 19, 2015
MTS Leverage Position
Unrel Volume
16-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
Chg DoD %
Symbol
AHCL
AICL
AKBL
ATRL
BAFL
BAHL
BOP
CHCC
DGKC
EFOODS
ENGRO
FABL
FATIMA
FCCL
FFBL
FFC
HUBC
KEL
LPCL
LUCK
MCB
MLCF
NBP
PAEL
PIOC
PKGP
PPL
PSO
PTC
SNGP
SSGC
UBL
TOTAL
Unrel Value
80,924,900 3,441,610,255
80,572,900 3,324,879,409
0.44%
3.51%
Unrel Volume
Unrel Value
465,700
11,855,634
2,450,100
106,097,695
2,972,500
59,621,552
313,700
51,390,623
1,891,000
52,998,386
46,500
1,932,068
20,120,700
176,206,750
538,500
34,616,853
1,524,500
147,239,540
1,212,200
128,500,289
4,788,300
941,564,235
3,313,500
50,900,778
5,165,000
157,788,172
2,406,200
56,251,969
1,185,500
47,156,324
105,900
10,774,121
1,399,500
91,871,185
4,304,000
34,201,240
6,365,000
94,210,268
79,900
33,936,082
23,000
6,133,837
2,549,000
102,042,532
1,296,000
75,318,019
2,744,500
109,967,773
1,361,500
96,699,863
271,500
6,804,341
850,700
128,166,985
594,000
174,518,436
956,500
20,421,004
803,000
19,615,109
6,579,000
214,396,601
567,100
83,993,375
80,924,900 3,441,610,255
MTS Volume
9,222,200
8,871,300
3.96%
MTS Volume
31,000
178,500
78,000
42,100
196,000
5,500
1,349,500
36,500
100,500
78,700
226,200
49,000
164,000
369,500
6,600
381,500
541,000
548,000
4,000
391,500
765,000
184,000
303,000
2,500
39,100
182,900
1,315,000
53,000
850,000
32,100
9,222,200
MTS Value
422,179,172
505,503,608
-16.48%
MTS Value
843,301
8,029,739
1,598,594
7,303,620
5,616,863
236,191
12,527,234
2,358,656
10,109,996
8,609,819
49,626,553
772,946
5,138,883
9,020,804
692,016
27,412,492
4,737,288
8,085,159
1,721,145
16,063,783
46,024,052
7,628,145
22,159,526
65,056
5,888,291
55,365,834
28,425,675
1,294,053
29,129,016
4,936,713
422,179,172
Total Volume
90,147,100
89,444,200
0.79%
Total Volume
496,700
2,628,600
3,050,500
355,800
2,087,000
52,000
21,470,200
575,000
1,625,000
1,290,900
5,014,500
3,362,500
5,329,000
2,775,700
1,185,500
112,500
1,781,000
4,845,000
6,913,000
83,900
23,000
2,940,500
2,061,000
2,928,500
1,664,500
274,000
889,800
776,900
2,271,500
856,000
7,429,000
599,200
90,147,100
Total Value
MTS Rate
3,863,789,427
3,830,383,017
0.87%
15.42
15.34
8 bps
Total Value
MTS Rate
12,698,934
114,127,434
61,220,146
58,694,243
58,615,248
2,168,259
188,733,984
36,975,508
157,349,535
137,110,108
991,190,788
51,673,724
162,927,055
65,272,772
47,156,324
11,466,137
119,283,677
38,938,528
102,295,427
35,657,227
6,133,837
118,106,314
121,342,072
117,595,918
118,859,389
6,869,397
134,055,275
229,884,270
48,846,680
20,909,163
243,525,617
88,930,088
3,863,789,427
15.81
15.86
17.37
15.43
15.83
16.00
17.32
16.49
14.74
16.03
15.53
16.00
14.19
14.99
16.00
15.00
16.16
16.08
15.08
16.80
15.48
17.42
15.98
17.59
14.72
14.71
15.69
17.10
15.37
15.02
15.42
CORPORATE OFFICE.
Suite # 208 2nd floor, Business & Finance Centre,
Main I.I. Chundrigar Road, Karachi, Pakistan.
Tel: 111-293-293, 021-2467131-40
Email: [email protected]
Risk Disclosure
This report has been prepared by AZEE Securities (Pvt) Limited and the information contained in the Product is
intended solely for the recipient or attached skilled individuals of the firm. The Firm accepts no liability whatsoever
for the actions of individual, collateral or third parties in all over Pakistan and abroad as well. This report is provided solely for the information of professional advisers who are expected to make their own investment decisions
without undue reliance on this report and AZEE Securities (Pvt) Limited accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any
direct or indirect consequential loss arising from any use of this report contents. All rights reserved. The material
contained in this report is based on data obtained from sources we deem to be reliable and without prior written
permission this information is provided on an "as is" basis.
3
Karachi Stock Exchange (Guarantee) Ltd. (Registered)
33, Ground Floor, Karachi Stock Exchange, Stock
Exchange Road, Karachi – 74000, Pakistan.
Tel: 021-2473513-22 Fax: 021-2473519
Email: [email protected]
CALL: 111-AZE-AZE
URL: http://www.azeetrade.com
Email: [email protected]