Fryer's EU - Black Sea Report

Fryer's EU - Black Sea Report
6 Jan 2015
Futures
Previous
Close Jan 5
Change
Matif (€)
May
198.50
202.75
4.25
Mar
199.00
202.75
3.75
Fob 25kt France (€)*
€
11 pro
Feb
211.82
Mar
212.25
Apr
212.32
*Base July
Feb
Mar
Apr
Azov
n/a
n/a
n/a
Sep
196.00
198.75
2.75
German/Baltic (€)
12.5 pro
14 pro
223.75
231.75
225.25
233.25
226.75
234.75
Russian 12.5 pro
Marmara
Big Port
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Mar
134.50
137.25
2.75
WHEAT
Liffe (£)
May
136.00
138.80
2.80
Costanza (€)
12.5 pro
227.75
231.75
235.75
Nov
140.60
143.10
2.50
Fob 25kt
$
Feb
Mar
Apr
Ukraine 25kt
12.5 pro
11.5 pro
275.0
263.0
n/a
266.0
n/a
269.0
Egypt
Algeria
Morocco
France
11 pro
252.70
253.32
253.51
C&F Egypt
280.0
n/a
n/a
Page 1/2
Freight (Handies)
Rouen
B. Sea
18
14
23
n/a
16
18
German/Baltic
12.5 pro
14 pro
266.93
276.48
268.84
278.38
270.74
280.29
Ukraine
230.0
232.0
234.0
Feed 25kt
UK
219.1
220.2
221.3
Costanza
12.5 pro
271.71
276.48
281.25
France
225.3
225.9
226.1
Matif bounced to its highest close in 7 months, buoyed by a 9-year low in the €uro and
reports that last week's Algerian tender saw 5-600kt sold at around $278 C&F. Opinions
differ as to the origin, but basis $23 freight and costings ex-France, this would be the
first time in a long time that Algeria has traded at replacement. The Black Sea was a very
tough call, with FH Jan Russian 12.5 pro worth no more than $260 Fob, whilst LH Jan was
reported bid at $273 (the tax risk is for the seller, hence the willingness of the shorts to
bid up against the Feb 1 deadline). The Black Sea was further complicated by Ukraine's
decision to halt VAT re-imbursements, which along with this week's severe cold threat in the
US, all helped lift EU and US (i.e. non-Black Sea) futures. The Ruble fell 3%, the Hryvnia
was little changed, snow cover looks overall good (see page 2), but weather, politics and
the holidays will keep the market inactive at least another week.
Fob (4kt)
Feb
Mar
Apr
Fob 50kt ($)
Feb
Mar
Apr
Baltic (€)
179.75
181.00
182.50
UK (€)
168.86
171.41
173.96
France
227.65
228.85
227.84
Germ/Baltic
220.41
221.99
223.88
Fob 25kt
UK
213.62
216.23
218.84
France (€)*
186.82
187.75
186.82
BARLEY
Germ/Balt
184.75
186.00
187.50
UK (€)
179.06
181.61
184.16
Rus/Ukr
210-220
210-220
210-220
Argie
205-215
210-220
210-220
Aussie
280
280
280
Freight Jeddah
N. Europe
28.00
B. Sea
23.00
Argie
40.00
Aussie
28.00
With both Matif and the currencies maintaining their volatility, pinning down EU barley
values remains near impossible and cash markets are completely nominal although on paper, UK
remains easily the cheapest. Kuwait tenders Tuesday for 2x40kt Apr/May, which on paper ought
to be done basis the Black Sea which remains (also nominal) at around $215 Fob.
CORN
Futures
Previous
Close Jan 5
Change
Matif (€)
Mar
161.25
166.75
5.50
Jun
165.75
170.50
4.75
Budapest Mar
Huf
€
41'800
131.34
41'800
131.35
0
0.01
JFM
AMJ
JAS
Fob*
Fr Bay €
161.0
161.0
165.0
Fob*
Rhine €
151.0
151.0
155.0
Fob
Danube €
140.0
142.0
144.0
Fob
Costanza €
160.0
162.0
164.0
Fob
Ukraine $
189.4
193.6
195.6
Matif corn rallied a hefty €5 but the Jan-Mar carry still widened out to €8.50 at
expiration. French cash business was nil, and there was absolutely nothing to justify the
hike to near 5-month highs, as despite the 9-year low in the €uro and a 10¢ bounce in CBOT
corn, the reality is that French corn goes pretty much nowhere at current prices. Ukraine
corn was quoted Fob at levels little changed from last week (although once again, all values
are completely nominal), at around $189 for Jan plus $1 per month. Basis the rally at the
CBOT, that left premiums down on the day but still around +75CH. News was thin, and the
ongoing holidays in teh Black Sea plus next Monday's USDA report, will keep these market
quiet for at least another week.
Fryer's EU - Black Sea Report
6 Jan 2015
Page 2/2
French Vessel Line-up
UK
Portugal
Italy
Holland
Spain
Wheat
2
12
4
4
30
EU
52
Algeria
Egypt
Tunisia
Oth. Africa
Others
Non-EU
Total
Previous
65
66
25
72
7
235
287
433
Barley
Spain
12
Germany
Spain
Holland
UK
Belgium
Eire
12
Algeria
China
Others
6
62
3
71
83
39
Others
Corn
5
4
13
8
4
5
39
7
7
46
67
Exchange
€
£
Huf
Rub
UAH
Ind Rupee
Turk Lr
U/FSU Vegetation/Snow Cover
$
1.1930
1.5215
266.750
60.5800
15.8200
63.3450
60.5800
Change
-0.0080
-0.0100
1.7500
1.8300
0.0050
0.0450
1.8300
€
1
1.2754
318.233
72.2719
18.8733
Change
0
0.0002
-0.0323
1.7132
-0.1206