CURRENCY INSIGHT

Currency Research Desk
Currency Insight
2013
Tuesday, 06 January 2015
2.04% EURINR YTD
USDINR YTD
, 2013
USD/INR-NSE
Contract
S2
Jan
63.4975
S1
63.5950
-11.26% GBPINR YTD
Close
63.6925
R1
63.7900
R2
63.8875
Global Commodity Markets
 Euro continued to depreciate
yesterday, falling by 1.2 percent
grazing the median target of
many analysts at 1.18 amid
concerns from Greece and
possible QE.
 WTI Crude oil Feb continued to
trend lower, trading at $50.30
causing jitters in the equity
markets across the globe.
 Yen gained for a second day
after a slump in oil prices
triggered declines in global
stocks; creating a demand for
its haven status.
Recommendation
SELL NEAR 63.77 TGT 63.52/63.46 SL 63.9
 Gold traded marginally higher
rekindling its demand as a safe
haven, currently trading above
$1200 at $1205.00
 Base metals are trading on a
depreciating note, down by 1
percent.
Technical Tools
Global Bonds Markets


-11.09%
USDINR Jan Fut Technical Chart and Outlook
Global Markets Review
Global Currencies Markets
-5.77% JPYINR YTD
Bullish/
Bearish/
Mixed
Summary
Global Equity Markets
Indian 10-year benchmark 
Bond yields rose by 2 basis
points to 7.892.
US equity markets traded on a
negative note down by 1.83
percent.
US treasuries trended lower. 
US 10Y yield is lower by
0.42%
Asian markets are all trading
on a negative note with most
of them down by more than 2
percent.
Candle Stick
Mixed to bearish indications
SMAs or EMAs
8-34 EMAs still has positive
cross over intact
Mother Chart
Analysis
Price may test support near
previous swing low of 63.10 in
near term; no other major
pattern except formation of
higher highs in last couple of
sessions
Momentum
Indicators
Fundamental Outlook
Overall Intraday
Bias
MACD (12/26/9) is hovering
near 0.40 and falling
Likely to gradually fall
towards 63.34 and lower
Falling oil and equity markets could be weighing in heavily on the
Indian Equity and currency markets. Indian Rupee one month is
trading lower by 10 paisa indicating a positve opening for the rupee.
Services PMI data from Indian, Europe and US later in the evening will
Reference Rates
Pair
LAST
1 Day ago
% Change
USD/INR
63.39
63.29
0.16
all add to volatility in the currency markets. We expect Indian rupee to
GBP/INR
96.85
98.39
-1.57
open on a positve note and continue to appreciate marginally.
JPY/INR 100
52.61
52.59
0.04
EUR/INR
75.67
76.31
-0.84
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Currency Insight
Pair
EUR/INR-NSE
GBP/INR-NSE
JPY/INR-NSE
Contract
S2
Jan
75.5117
Jan
96.3725
Jan
52.3633
S1
75.7083
96.7800
52.6617
Close
75.9050
97.1875
52.9600
R1
76.2258
97.9725
53.1392
R2
76.5467
98.7575
53.3183
Recommendation
SELL NEAR 76.3 TGT 75.9 SL 76.45
SELL NEAR 97.38 TGT 97.02 SL 97.5
RANGE 53.15-53.55
Technical Charts
USD Index
EURINR Jan Futures
GBPINR Jan Futures
JPYINR Jan Futures
Asian Currency Pairs
Currency
Debt Market Information
LAST
GIND5YR Index
INDICATORS
% Change
LAST
1 Day ago
% Change
Chinese Yuan
10.1960
10.1960
0.00
LIBOR 1Mth
#N/A N/A
0.1675
#VALUE!
Hongkong Dollar
8.1770
8.1600
0.21
LIBOR 3Mth
#N/A N/A
0.2556
#VALUE!
Indonesian Rupiah
0.5028
0.5045
-0.34
MIBOR 1Mth
0.0200
#N/A N/A
#VALUE!
Myanmar Ringgit
17.9469
17.9994
-0.29
MIBOR 3Mth
0.0800
#N/A N/A
#VALUE!
Philipinnes Peso
1.4079
1.4120
-0.29
U.S. 5Yr Bond Yield
1.5645
1.6070
-2.64
Singapore Dollar
47.4876
47.6424
-0.32
U.S. 10Yr Bond Yield
2.0320
2.1105
-3.72
Taiwan Dollar
1.9825
1.9921
-0.48
India 10Yr Bond Yield
7.8920
7.8760
0.20
Thailand Baht
1.9236
1.9198
0.20
Call Rate
8.9500
7.2000
24.31
Currency Research Desk
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Currency Insight
Economic events :
Economic Data
Date Time
Country/Region
Event
Period
Surv(M)
Prior
01/06/15 10:30
01/06/15 10:30
IN
HSBC India Services PMI
Dec
--
52.6
IN
HSBC India Composite PMI
Dec
--
53.6
01/06/15 14:25
GE
Markit Germany Services PMI
Dec F
51.4
51.4
01/06/15 14:25
GE
Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI
Dec F
51.4
51.4
01/06/15 14:30
EC
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
Dec F
51.9
51.9
01/06/15 14:30
EC
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
Dec F
51.7
51.7
01/06/15 15:00
UK
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI
Dec
58.5
58.6
01/06/15 15:00
UK
Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI
Dec
57.4
57.6
01/06/15 15:00
UK
Official Reserves Changes
Dec
--
-$321M
01/06/15 20:15
US
Markit US Composite PMI
Dec F
--
53.8
01/06/15 20:15
US
Markit US Services PMI
Dec F
53.8
53.6
01/06/15 20:30
US
Factory Orders
Nov
-0.4%
-0.7%
01/06/15 20:30
US
ISM Non-Manf. Composite
Dec
58.0
59.3
Forward Market (Onshore & Offshore)
FORWARDS
LAST
1 Day ago
Major World Indices
% Change
Annu(%)
INDICES
LAST
USGG10YR Curncy% Change
1-Mth Forward
63.9310
63.6583
0.43
0.43%
3-Mth Forward
64.6810
64.4360
0.38
1.14%
6-Mth Forward
65.8320
65.5645
0.41
2.45%
12-Mth Forward
67.9060
67.6245
0.42
5.00%
Dow jones Industrial
17501.65
17832.99
-1.86
1-Mth NDF
63.8600
63.6200
0.38
0.38%
Shanghai Composite
3350.52
#N/A N/A
#VALUE!
3-Mth NDF
64.5100
64.2800
0.36
1.07%
Nikkei 225
17408.71
#N/A N/A
#VALUE!
6-Mth NDF
65.4800
65.2500
0.35
2.11%
HangSeng
23721.32
23857.82
-0.57
12-Mth NDF
67.4200
67.1000
0.48
5.72%
Ftse Index
6417.16
6547.80
-2.00
Nifty
8378.40
8395.45
-0.20
Sensex
27842.32
27887.90
-0.16
Nasdaq
4652.57
4726.81
-1.57
Prepared by:Aurobinda Prasad ([email protected]) – Research Head
Jitendra K Parashar ([email protected]) – Technical Analyst
Rakesh K Chelapareddy ([email protected]) – Fundamental Analyst
Disclaimer
The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do
not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report
may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary.
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Currency Research Desk
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