FX Weekly Update

December 15, 2014
FX Weekly Update
Contacts : Marc Maeder
Utku Eroglu
Oguz Sanli
Tel : +41 (0)22 909 18 32
e-mail [email protected]
Currency Pair
EUR/USD
USD/CHF
EUR/CHF
GBP/USD
EUR/GBP
USD/JPY
EUR/JPY
USD/TRY
EUR/TRY
USD/ZAR
EUR/SEK
EUR/NOK
EUR/DKK
GOLD
SILVER
Current Price
1.2423
0.9668
1.2010
1.5696
0.7915
118.58
147.32
2.3177
2.8801
11.5795
9.3840
9.1528
7.4374
1'210.89
16.87
Week Close
1.2462
0.9638
1.2011
1.5716
0.7928
118.75
147.99
2.2985
2.8652
11.5916
9.4090
9.1528
7.4389
1'222.59
17.03
% Change
-0.31
0.31
-0.01
-0.13
-0.17
-0.14
-0.45
0.83
0.52
-0.10
-0.27
0.00
-0.02
-0.97
-0.95
Month Close
1.2452
0.9653
1.2022
1.5645
0.7958
118.63
147.72
2.2201
2.7645
11.0629
9.2762
8.7549
7.4405
1'167.38
15.45
% Change
-0.23
0.16
-0.09
0.32
-0.54
-0.04
-0.27
4.21
4.01
4.46
1.15
4.35
-0.04
3.59
8.43
Year Close
1.3743
0.8929
1.2274
1.6557
0.8302
105.31
144.73
2.1482
2.9529
10.4926
8.8482
8.3436
7.4600
1'201.64
19.47
% Change
-10.63
7.64
-2.20
-5.49
-4.89
11.19
1.76
7.31
-2.53
9.39
5.71
8.84
-0.30
0.76
-15.39
200d Moving Avg
1.3256
0.9161
1.2127
1.6514
0.8025
105.82
140.01
2.1731
2.8789
10.7939
9.1383
8.3168
7.4539
1'267.33
18.92
100d Moving Avg
1.2809
0.9431
1.2072
1.6178
0.7917
109.58
140.18
2.2179
2.8403
10.9906
9.2140
8.3728
7.4459
1'233.40
17.81
Period
Nov
Nov
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov
Nov
Dec
Dec
Nov
Nov
Dec
Survey
0.60%
79.30%
--50.2
52.5
51.8
50.6
0.00%
1.20%
6.5
20
1030K
1050K
--
Prior
-0.10%
78.90%
48.4
47.9
49.5
52.1
51.1
50.1
0.10%
1.30%
3.3
11.5
1009K
1080K
54.8
Importance
Oct
Nov
Nov
Nov
Dec.17
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov
Dec.13
Dec.06
5.90%
0.30%
-0.10%
1.50%
0-0.25%
105.5
110.8
100.5
0.30%
---
6.00%
-0.00%
1.70%
0-0.25%
104.7
110
99.7
0.80%
294K
2514K
Weekly Comment
EURGBP
It’s been almost 6 months that EURGBP is stuck between 0.7800-0.8000
flat range. The pair seems totally directionless in the last 2 weeks. Even
though we saw sharp moves within the day, mostly because of ECB and
BoE officials’ bearish remarks, the pattern in the big picture hasn’t changed
much. We see that upside is limited with 0.8025 (200day average) and
downside is supported by 0.7830, 0.7800 and 0.7766, respectively.
However, higher lows at the bottom of the daily chart is noteworthy, which
is a bullish sign for the pair. We don’t expect the flat range bounds to be
broken towards year-end unless something new comes out from either
ECB or BoE.
USDTRY
As we are getting closer to the year end, investors have started to lose
their risk appetite, which was the case in December 20013 as well.
USD/EM has been trading uncomfortably lately and printing new highs
every passing day. The lira, which is one of the best performers among EM
currencies against the dollar this year, also got hit by the year-end flow.
USDTRY broke crucial 2.3000 level as of this morning. Technically, the
pair is in overbought territory but the momentum is still strong and it’s just a
matter of time that we may see fresh highs. The liquidity will be a more
serious issue in the following days. 2.3000 and 2.2810 are the supports
below. On the upside we have all-time-high 2.3900 which was seen in
January. Buying on dips may be the most appropriate strategy to pursue at
the moment.
Key Events
Date
12/15/2014 15:15
12/15/2014 15:15
12/16/2014 09:00
12/16/2014 09:00
12/16/2014 09:30
12/16/2014 09:30
12/16/2014 10:00
12/16/2014 10:00
12/16/2014 10:30
12/16/2014 10:30
12/16/2014 11:00
12/16/2014 11:00
12/16/2014 14:30
12/16/2014 14:30
12/16/2014 15:45
12/17/2014 10:30
12/17/2014 10:30
12/17/2014 11:00
12/17/2014 14:30
12/17/2014 14:30
12/17/2014 20:00
12/18/2014 10:00
12/18/2014 10:00
12/18/2014 10:00
12/18/2014 10:30
12/18/2014 14:30
12/18/2014 14:30
Country
US
US
FR
FR
GE
GE
EC
EC
UK
UK
GE
GE
US
US
US
UK
UK
EC
US
US
US
GE
GE
GE
UK
US
US
Event
Industrial Production MoM
Capacity Utilization
Markit France Manufacturing PMI
Markit France Services PMI
Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI
Markit Germany Services PMI
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
CPI MoM
CPI YoY
ZEW Survey Current Situation
ZEW Survey Expectations
Housing Starts
Building Permits
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
Bank of England Minutes
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths
CPI YoY
CPI MoM
CPI YoY
FOMC Rate Decision
IFO Business Climate
IFO Current Assessment
IFO Expectations
Retail Sales Incl. Auto MoM
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
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