Rubber Report - Jan 19, 2015 : Geofin Comtrade

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Email: [email protected]
[email protected]
Geofin Research Desk,
Kochi
Anu V Pai
Analyst
Monday, January 19, 2015
Rubber Report
MCX Member code:
40220 FMC No.: MCX/TCM/CORP/1710
NCDEX Member code :
00920 FMCNo.:NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0895
A Daily Report on Natural Rubber
NMCE Member code:
CL0324 FMC No.: NMCE/TCM/CORP/0245
OPENING SIGNALS
ACE Member code:
6192 FMC No: ACEL/TCM/CORP/0429
Commodity
Disclaimer: Trading/investing in Commodity Derivatives
involves considerable risk you may lose part or all of the
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and you are advised to seek professional assistance before
the same. Past performance may not necessarily be repeated
in the future. The news and views posted on this report is
based on information which is believed to be accurate. This
report is provided to enable you to make your own
Last Price
% Chg
Nymex Crude Oil ($/bbl)
48.30
-0.39
Tokyo Commodity Exchange Rubber(Y/kg)
194.4
0.73
Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand
Rubber(TBH/kg)
54.60
-0.05
Shanghai Futures Exchange Rubber(CNY/ton)
12725
0.35
investment decisions and should not be construed as
investment advice. The anticipatory moves mentioned in the
report are purely subject to technical studies and does not
take into consideration sudden currency volatility and data
events.
The
author,
directors
and/or
employees
of
GeofinComtrade cannot be held responsible for the accuracy
Currency
% Chg
USD/INR
61.6700
-0.32
USD/ JPY
117.03
-0.48
of the content posted on this report or for decisions taken by
the readers based on such information
Last Price
* LTP: Last traded price at 9:23 am IST.
RUBBER REPORT
January 19, 2015
MARKET COMMENTARY
⊳Last week saw natural rubber in the Indian market slumping to its lowest level in four weeks. On NMCE, the
most active February rubber futures posted losses for the second successive week dragged down by weakness in
the overseas natural rubber market and lacklusture local demand. RSS4 was quoted lower in the physical market
too and ended around Rs.118 a kg compared to Rs.124 quoted a week earlier.
⊳ A rebound is being witnessed in natural rubber in the international market as the week’s session commences.
TOCOM rubber futures gained nearly one per cent backed by a weaker yen. However, caution prevailed in the
market ahead of the release of the key economic data releases from the top consumer China.
MARKET NEWS
⊳Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 5.7 per cent to 160297 tonnes last week.
⊳ Ivory Coast's natural rubber output for 2014 reached 311,429 tonnes, exceeding a forecast of 296,456 tonnes,
the head of the natural rubber association said.
⊳Kerala Chief Minister and Opposition Leader submitted a memorandum before the Prime Minister, urging the
latter to take necessary steps to solve the problems faced by rubber sector.
⊳According to International Rubber Study Group, global production of natural rubber is to exceed consumption by
77,000 mt this year before narrowing to 51,000 mt in 2016.
⊳China has approved a new standard for compound rubber that reduces the amount of natural rubber allowed in
the formula. The new standard, which will cap natural rubber content in the compound to 88 per cent, down
from 95-99.5 per cent previously, will be implemented on 01 July.
⊳According to International Rubber Study Group, global natural rubber demand in 2015 is anticipated to increase
3.1 per cent to 12.3 million tonnes.
⊳Thai Prime Minister says government trying to boost natural rubber prices to 65 baht a kg without providing
details on ways to prop-up prices.
⊳Natural rubber production in India tumbled 36 per cent in December to 63000 tonnes on YoY basis. Consumption
declined as well by 1.8 per cent to 83500 tonnes while imports rose 8.0 per cent during the same time.
⊳Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 12,987 tonnes as of Dec. 20, up 15.1 pct from 10 days
earlier, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.
⊳According to Union Commerce Minister the period for the export of rubber imported under the advanced
licensing system has been reduced to six months from the earlier 18 months.
TECHNICAL COMMENTRY
RUBBER Feb NMCE
While there exist weakens, the pullback
being witness after taking support at
11625 is likely to continue towards 12100
or more if it clears the immediate
resistance of 11930. A direct fall below
11620 will see a selloff to 11580/11480.
GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in
SUPPORTS
11360/11200
11580/11480
11730-11620
TURNAROUND
LEVEL
12300-1193011620
RESISTANCES
11930/12020
12100/12320
12450/12550
RUBBER REPORT
January 19, 2015
ARBITRAGE WINDOW
Across Domestic and International Market
Kottayam RSS4 Spot Price: Rs.125.60/kg Latex (drc 60%):Rs.78.20/kg
(Rubber Board Rates)
Contract
Feb-15
Open
11860
High
11860
NMCE RUBBER FUTURES
Low
Last
% Chg
Vol
11625 11794
-0.86
1266
Mar-15
11926
11930
11715
11880
-0.93
Apr-15
11967
12030
11967
11999
May-15
-
-
-
-
▲ Vol
-158
OI
1272
▲OI
-38
910
360
744
77
-1.23
4
0
8
1
-
-
-
-
-
SPREAD
Feb-15
Spot
Close (Rs/kg)
Chg
766
680
561
-
Bangkok(RSS3) Spot
104.66
-0.99
0
-86
-205
-
Malaysia(SMR20) Spot
86.43
0.09
0
-119
-
AFET(RSS3)Aug 15
103.34
-0.66
0
-
Tocom(RSS3)Jun 15
101.35
-1.69
-
Shanghai(RSS3) May 15
125.53
0.69
Feb-15
Mar-15
INTERNATIONAL RUBBER PRICES (in Rs.)
Mar-15
Apr-15
Apr-15
May-15
May-15
Orgin
SPREAD
VALID WAREHOUSE RECEIPTS and OI
Domestic and International NR Prices
(NMCE)
10.00
5000
3000
Bangkok
--20.94
-70.00
Malaysia
--39.17
Valid WH Receipts
Total OI
PVO ANALYSIS (NMCE Feb)
13500
3000
13000
2500
13200
13000
12800
12600
12400
12200
12000
11800
11600
11400
11200
11000
Price
2000
12500
Volume & OI
Price in Rs/100kg
NMCE FUTURES v/s SPOT
1500
12000
1000
11500
500
NMCE
GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in
SPOT
Vol
OI
Jan-15
Jan-15
Jan-15
Jan-15
Jan-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Dec-14
Dec-14
Dec-14
Nov-14Nov-14Nov-14Dec-14Dec-14Dec-14Jan-15Jan-15
Dec-14
0
11000
Dec-14
-60.00
Nov-14
0
Oct-14
-50.00
Sep-14
1000
May-14
-40.00
Aug-14
2000
Jul-14
-30.00
4000
Jun-14
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
-20.00
Sep-13
-10.00
Jun-13
0.00
OI/WH Receipts
6000
Spread(in Rs.)
20.00
Close
Date
RUBBER REPORT
January 19, 2015
WEATHER
Daily Weather: Kerala (Source: IMD)
SUMMARY: Rain occurred at isolated places in
Kerala. Dry weather prevailed over Lakshadweep.
Minimum temperature rose appreciably in Kottayam
district, rose in Alappuzha, Ernakulam, Malappuram,
Kollam & Thrissur districts, was appreciably above
normal in Alappuzha & Kottayam districts, above
normal in Ernakulam & Palakkad districts and
changed little in the remaining districts. Punalur &
Karipur Airport recorded the lowest minimum
temperature of 220C.
WEATHER FORECAST FOR 3 DAYS# UPTO 0830
HOURS IST OF 21ST JANUARY 2015: Dry weather
will prevail over Kerala and Lakshadweep.
WEATHER WARNING FOR 3 DAYS:
18TH January 2015 (Day 1): No weather warning.
19TH January 2015 (Day 2): No weather warning.
20TH January 2015 (Day 3): No weather warning.
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUBSEQUENT 4 DAYS#
FROM 21/01/2015 TO 0830 HOURS IST OF
25/01/2015: No significant change.
(Source: IMD)
HOLIDAY CALENDAR
Month/Year
Date
JANUARY 2015
26
Exchange/Country
Occasion/Event
NMCE
Republic Day
MALAYSIA
Federal Territory Day/Thaipusam
11
TOCOM
National Foundation Day
17
NMCE
Mahashivratri
18 to 24
SHFE
Spring Festival
19
INDONESIA
Chinese New Year
19 & 20
MALAYSIA
Chinese New Year
1 to 3
FEBRUARY 2015
GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in
RUBBER REPORT
January 19, 2015
Geofin Research Team, Kochi
Phone: 91 484 290 1058/1059
91 484 3202393
Mobile: 91 9388 465 650
Email: [email protected]
Hareesh V
Head of Commodity Research
[email protected]
Krishnaprasad NB
Analyst
[email protected]
Vinod T. P.
Analyst
[email protected]
Abraham Francis
Analyst
[email protected]
Anu V Pai
Analyst
[email protected]
VishidhaVijayakumar
Analyst
[email protected]
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GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in