Rubber Report - Feb 16, 2015 : Geofin Comtrade
Transcription
Rubber Report - Feb 16, 2015 : Geofin Comtrade
GeofinComtrade Ltd. Geojit BNP Paribas Bldg, 10th Floor, 34/659-P, Civil Line Road, Padivattom. Kochi-682 024 Kerala Phone: 91 484 2901058 Email: [email protected] [email protected] Geofin Research Desk, Kochi Anu V Pai Analyst Monday, February 16, 2015 Rubber Report MCX Member code: 40220 FMC No.: MCX/TCM/CORP/1710 NCDEX Member code : 00920 FMCNo.:NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0895 A Daily Report on Natural Rubber NMCE Member code: CL0324 FMC No.: NMCE/TCM/CORP/0245 OPENING SIGNALS ACE Member code: 6192 FMC No: ACEL/TCM/CORP/0429 Commodity Disclaimer: Trading/investing in Commodity Derivatives involves considerable risk you may lose part or all of the initial investment. It is not ideal for all types of investors, and you are advised to seek professional assistance before the same. Past performance may not necessarily be repeated in the future. The news and views posted on this report is based on information which is believed to be accurate. This report is provided to enable you to make your own Last Price % Chg Nymex Crude Oil ($/bbl) 52.66 -0.23 Tokyo Commodity Exchange Rubber(Y/kg) 223.0 1.00 Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand Rubber(TBH/kg) - - 14080 1.99 Shanghai Futures Exchange Rubber(CNY/ton) investment decisions and should not be construed as investment advice. The anticipatory moves mentioned in the report are purely subject to technical studies and does not take into consideration sudden currency volatility and data events. The author, directors and/or employees of GeofinComtrade cannot be held responsible for the accuracy Currency % Chg USD/INR 62.12 0.09 USD/ JPY 118.43 -0.26 of the content posted on this report or for decisions taken by the readers based on such information Last Price * LTP: Last traded price at 9:36 am IST. RUBBER REPORT February 16, 2015 MARKET COMMENTARY ⊳Moves were rather volatile in the local natural rubber market last week. Following an initial surge towards five weeks high on NMCE, sharp declines were witnessed last week before bouncing back towards the close of the week. A similar trend was witnessed in the physical market too. While worries over demand from the tyre sector continued to weigh on, positive moves in the international natural rubber markets along with short covering provided firm support for prices to bounce back. In the international market, meanwhile, natural rubber prices are seen stretching previous day’s gains. On Monday, TOCOM as well as SHFE rubber futures gained more than one per cent buoyed by a recovery in crude oil prices amidst the lean production in the major natural rubber growing countries. However, concerns over demand from China kept gains under check. China markets are to close soon for a week long Lunar New Year holidays. MARKET NEWS ⊳Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 2.1 per cent last week to 168312 tonnes. ⊳According to the Rubber Board, natural rubber imports by India jumped 47 per cent in January to 30441 tonnes on year on year basis. ⊳Media report says India likely to raise import duty on natural rubber to 30 per cent from 20 per cent to protest the domestic growers from cheap imports and check further decline in prices. The hike may to be announced in the next Union Budget. ⊳Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 12976tonnes as of Jan. 20, down 0.5 percent from 10 days earlier, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed. ⊳the 2nd edition of India Rubber Meet will be held on 04 and 05 March 2015 at Le Meridian Convention Center, Kochi and will be inaugurated by Hon’ble Minister of Commerce and Industry Ms. NirmalaSitharaman. ⊳The National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) and the government will instruct the Government Savings Bank and Krung Thai Bank to provide business operators with soft loans worth 25 billion baht ($768 million) to buy natural rubber from farmers, the Bangkok Post reported, quoting Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister PrawitWongsuwon. ⊳The United States is set to slap more duties on imports of tires from China after the Department of Commerce determined they were sold too cheaply in the United States. ⊳Ivory Coast's natural rubber output for 2014 reached 311,429 tonnes, exceeding a forecast of 296,456 tonnes, the head of the natural rubber association said. TECHNICAL COMMENTRY RUBBER Mar NMCE It looks as if some more upsides are in store, possibly towards 12775-12900 ranges, following the bounce back seen from 12200. However, it is mandatory to clear and sustain over 13000 to strengthen the prevailing positive momentum. Alternatively, slippage past 12450 may take prices further lower though major downsides may be anticipated only below 12050. GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in SUPPORTS 12050/11900 12200/12120 12450-12380 TURNAROUND LEVEL 13000-12050 RESISTANCES 12650/12775 12900/13000 13120/13300 RUBBER REPORT February 16, 2015 ARBITRAGE WINDOW Across Domestic and International Market Kottayam RSS4 Spot Price: Rs.139.80kg Latex (drc 60%):Rs.82.40/kg (Rubber Board Rates) Contract Feb-15 Open 12425 NMCE RUBBER FUTURES High Low Last % Chg Vol 12540 12315 12850 4.36 294 Mar-15 12550 12645 12490 12554 0.72 Apr-15 12584 12750 12575 12638 May-15 12782 12782 12700 12700 SPREAD Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 1476 -66 1906 53 0.93 454 -418 716 20 0.82 32 26 35 14 Close (Rs/kg) Chg Bangkok(RSS3) Spot 116.49 1.28 Malaysia(SMR20) Spot 88.63 1.73 -146 AFET(RSS3)Sep 15 116.66 2.95 -62 Tocom(RSS3)Jul 15 115.51 1.51 Shanghai(RSS3) May 15 137.88 3.38 1426 1342 1280 0 296 212 150 0 -84 0 Mar-15 ▲OI -14 INTERNATIONAL RUBBER PRICES (in Rs.) 1130 Feb-15 OI 480 Apr-15 May-15 0 Orgin SPREAD VALID WAREHOUSE RECEIPTS and OI Domestic and International NR Prices (NMCE) 10.00 5000 Dec-14 Sep-14 Jun-14 Mar-14 Dec-13 -30.00 4000 3000 2000 1000 -40.00 -70.00 Valid WH Receipts NMCE FUTURES v/s SPOT Jan-15 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 --51.17 Sep-14 Malaysia --23.31 Jul-14 Bangkok May-14 -60.00 Aug-14 0 -50.00 Jun-14 -20.00 Sep-13 -10.00 Jun-13 0.00 OI/WH Receipts 6000 Spread(in Rs.) 20.00 Total OI PVO ANALYSIS (NMCE Feb) 3500 12800 14000 3000 12600 13500 2500 12400 13000 2000 12200 1500 12000 1000 11800 500 11600 Volume & OI Price in Rs/100kg 14500 12500 12000 11500 NMCE GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in SPOT Vol OI Feb-15 Feb-15 Feb-15 Feb-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Jan-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Jan-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 11400 Jan-15 0 Jan-15 11000 Nov-14 Close Date Price Spot ▲ Vol 20 RUBBER REPORT February 16, 2015 WEATHER Daily Weather: Kerala (Source: IMD) SUMMARY: Rain occurred at isolated places in Kerala. Dry weather prevailed over Lakshadweep. The chief amounts of rainfall reports in cm are: Kollam 3, Punalur (Kollam district) 2 & Kurudamannil (Pathanamthitta district) 1. Minimum temperature fell in Kollam district and changed little in the remaining districts. Punalur recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 21oC. WEATHER FORECAST FOR 3 DAYS# UPTO 0830 HOURS IST OF 18TH FEBRUARY 2015: Rain/thundershower will occur at isolated places in Kerala on 15/02/2015. Dry weather will prevail over Kerala on 16/02/2015 & 17/02/2015 and over Lakshadweep from 15/02/2015 to 17/02/2015. WEATHER WARNING FOR 3 DAYS: 15TH February 2015 (Day 1): No weather warning. 16TH February 2015 (Day 2): No weather warning. 17TH February 2015 (Day 3): No weather warning. WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUBSEQUENT 4 DAYS# FROM 18/02/2015 TO 0830 HOURS IST OF 22/02/2015: No significant change. (Source: IMD) HOLIDAY CALENDAR Month/Year FEBRUARY 2015 Date Exchange/Country Occasion/Event 11 TOCOM National Foundation Day 17 NMCE Mahashivratri 18 to 24 SHFE Spring Festival 19 INDONESIA Chinese New Year 19 & 20 MALAYSIA Chinese New Year GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in RUBBER REPORT February 16, 2015 Geofin Research Team, Kochi Phone: 91 484 290 1058/1059 91 484 3202393 Mobile: 91 9388 465 650 Email: [email protected] Hareesh V Head of Commodity Research [email protected] Krishnaprasad NB Analyst [email protected] Vinod T. P. Analyst [email protected] Abraham Francis Analyst [email protected] Anu V Pai Analyst [email protected] VishidhaVijayakumar Analyst [email protected] This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from GeofinComtrade Ltd. GEOFIN RESEARCH DESK | www.geofin.co.in