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View - TA Futures
TA FUTURES SDN BHD
(340271-W)
A member of the TA group
BMD FCPO FUTURES DAILY COMMENTARY – 21 th January, 2015 (Wednesday)
32nd Floor, Menara TA One, 22 Jalan P. Ramlee, 50250 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
For comments and enquiries, please contact us at Tel: +603-2072-4832, Toll Free : 1-800-88-1506
Fax: +603-2072-5001,Website : www.tafutures.com.my
Settlement
Month
Open
High
Open Interest
Low
Volume
Price (MYR)
Changes
Lots
Changes
-430
Feb-15
2345
2358
2335
2337
-5
528
7242
Mar-15
2318
2360
2315
2333
8
7082
25945
-470
Apr-15
2302
2346
2297
2320
11
25981
39758
5084
May-15
2275
2317
2270
2293
11
5910
22265
330
Jun-15
2244
2281
2240
2261
11
1808
14782
317
Jul-15
2224
2251
2214
2231
8
2608
12673
31
48,169
183,227
5,909
Total
CBOT Soyoil Mar' 15 (USD per pound)
33.22
33.25
32.70
32.84
-0.55
NYMEX Crude Oil Feb'15 (USD per barrel)
48.69
48.77
45.89
46.39
-2.30
DCE Palm Oil January' 15 (RMB per tonne)
4,880.00
4,912.00
4,864.00
4,914.00
-26.00
Malaysian Ringgit Spot (MYR/USD)
3.57
3.62
3.57
3.61
0.05
CBOT Soybean Mar’15 (US Cents per lb)
982'0
986'6
972'2
982'0
-9'6
665.00
-5.00
EU PALMOIL RBD dlrs tonne for Mar'15 (USD per tonne fob)
Price differential between CBOT
Soybean Oil and BMD Futures
CPO
$80.89
Source : Bloomberg
Jan '15
Feb '15
Mar '15
Apr '15
2,331.50
NT
NT
NT
CPO Physical Price as per MPOB (Local Delivery), - 19 January 2015
Source : MPOB
Estimated Export Volume
ITS (Tonnes)
SGS (Tonnes)
PERIODS
Nov '14
Dec '14
Jan '14
Changes
Nov '14
Dec '14
Jan'15
Changes
1 to 10
400,614
407,425
355,846
-12.70%
395,249
395,929
320,714
-19.00%
1 to 15
598,269
615,805
535,651
-13.00%
605,624
618,314
545,410
-11.80%
1 to 20
837,659
911,595
702,581
-22.90%
843,707
906,594
709,370
-21.80%
1 to 25
1,102,724
1,077,140
1,098,870
1,083,151
Full month
1,324,124
1,312,655
1,310,509
1,298,461
Source : Reuters
MPOB (tonne)
July'14
August'14
Sept '14
Oct '14
Nov '14
Dec '14
Changes
Production
1,665,661
2,031,754
1,896,899
1,892,996
1,750,567
1,364,797
-22.04%
Export
1,443,560
1,437,452
1,628,103
1,611,459
1,513,103
1,519,549
0.43%
End stock
1,684,732
2,053,175
2,090,001
2,166,525
2,276,117
2,013,326
-11.55%
Source : MPOB
Fundamental View:
 The Ringgit Malaysia weakened to an April 2009 low of 3.6140 per U.S. dollar, after the government adjusted its
economic growth targets and increased its fiscal deficit forecast to cope with sliding oil prices.
 Industry experts say palm prices face a volatile year in 2015 and will be driven by global demand factors, including
uncertain market movements in crude and rival edible oils.
 Analysts say while unfavourable weather in top growers Indonesia and Malaysia could tighten palm oil supply
temporarily, the damage to output will not be as bad as initially feared with any El Nino weather phenomenon
expected to be weak.
 Rapeseed oil was lower on the European vegetable oils market on Tuesday, weighed down by a sharp setback in
CBOT soyoil and broad-based weakness in crude oil and other commodity markets.
 Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures fell for the fifth time in six sessions on Tuesday on signs that demand
from importers was turning toward key producers in South America, traders said.
Source: Reuters
For Internal Circulation Only
Recirculation of this report or any part thereof to any third party/ies without the written consent of TA Futures is expressly prohibited. TA Futures does not warrant the
accuracy or the completeness of the information contained herein. Information is believed to be reliable and opinions stated here are subject to change. TA Futures shall
not be liable for any loss suffered by reliance placed on this commentary.
TA FUTURES SDN BHD
(340271-W)
A member of the TA group
BMD FCPO FUTURES DAILY COMMENTARY – 21 th January, 2015 (Wednesday)
32nd Floor, Menara TA One, 22 Jalan P. Ramlee, 50250 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
For comments and enquiries, please contact us at Tel: +603-2072-4832, Toll Free : 1-800-88-1506
Fax: +603-2072-5001,Website : www.tafutures.com.my
ROLLING THIRD-MONTH CPO FUTURES CONTRACT - DAILY CANDLESTICK CHART
KO3 (2,302.00, 2,346.00, 2,297.00, 2,320.00, +11.0000), Parabolic SAR (2,392.08)
2450
2450
2400
2400
2350
2350
2300
2300
2250
2250
2200
2200
2150
2150
2100
2100
2050
2050
2000
2000
1950
1950
1900
1900
1850
1850
Stochastic Oscillator (16.6090)
50
50
Relative Strength Index (56.8190)
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
MACD (33.1455)
0
0
-50
-50
7
October
13
20
27
3
10
November
17
24
1
8
December
15
22
29
5
2015
12
19
26
2
February
TECHNICAL VIEW
Third month benchmark April CPO Futures Contract opened at RM 2,302, it traded to a high at RM 2,346 and traded to
low at RM 2,297. CPO Futures closed at RM 2,320, up 11 points with total volume traded of 48169 lots. The sideways
trend extended for 3rd consecutive days. In the short term, there is a possibility for the price to go either direction, with
upward resistance will be at RM 2,390 or downward support will be RM 2,270. In the long term perspective, the market is
on uptrend wave. Immediate resistance is at RM2, 390, RM 2,412 and RM 2,430. Immediate support is at RM 2,270 and
RM 2,245.
TRADING VIEW
SHORT-TERM
MEDIUM-TERM
:
:
Target upside towards RM 2,405 with stop-loss below RM 2,265.
Target upside towards RM 2,433, with stop-loss below RM 2,250.
For Internal Circulation Only
Recirculation of this report or any part thereof to any third party/ies without the written consent of TA Futures is expressly prohibited. TA Futures does not warrant the
accuracy or the completeness of the information contained herein. Information is believed to be reliable and opinions stated here are subject to change. TA Futures shall
not be liable for any loss suffered by reliance placed on this commentary.