Weekly FX Insight - Citibank Hong Kong

Citibank Wealth Management
Weekly FX Insight
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Weekly FX Insight
Jan 26, 2015
with data as of Jan 23, 2015
Market Review & Focus
FX Analysis
FX & Eco. Figures Forecast
P. 1 - 2
P. 3 - 9
P. 10 - 13
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Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited
Weekly FX Recap
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
Major Currencies Weekly Performance
LAST WEEK PERFORMANCE
CCY
USD
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CHF
GOLD
52 week
high
52 week
low
1 year %
change
17.81%
Close Price
Day High
Day Low
94.76
95.48
92.15
95.48
78.91
1.1204
1.1679
1.1115
1.3993
1.1115 -18.20%
117.77
118.87
116.93
121.85
100.76 -12.32%
1.4989
1.5213
1.4952
1.7192
1.4952
1.2420
1.2456
1.1935
1.2456
1.0621 -10.61%
0.7912
0.8244
0.7881
0.9505
0.7881
0.7450
0.7808
0.7432
0.8836
0.7432 -10.26%
0.8801
0.8838
0.8501
1.0240
0.7406
1294.10
1307.98
1272.14
1392.22 1131.24 2.37%
Weekly changes versus US dollar
USD INDEX
2.42%
EUR
-3.14%
JPY
-0.22%
GBP
-1.06%
CAD
-3.64%
-9.91%
AUD
NZD
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 23, 2015
-3.78%
-4.36%
-9.76%
1.95%
CHF
-2.49%
GOLD
-6.00%
1.07%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 23, 2015
EUR
The EUR once plunged to 1.11 on Monday morning amid political uncertainties as Syriza won Greek election and
will form a new government in the coming three days, with the ECB implemented a 1.1 trillion euros QE last week.
EUR outlook: EUR/USD may test lower to 1.0504-1.0765.
CAD
USD/CAD rose above a resistance at 1.2119 as the BoC unexpectedly cut the interest rate by 25bps to 0.75%
and revised down Canada's inflation and economic forecasts. USD/CAD rose 3.6% to close at 1.2420 last week.
CAD outlook: USD/CAD may test higher to 1.2500.
NZD
The NZD breached a support at 0.7609 as NZ's CPI dropped from 0.3% QoQ to -0.2% QoQ in Q4 2014,
missing estimates and fueling expectations of rate cuts. NZD/USD dropped 4.4% to close at 0.7450 last week.
NZD outlook: NZD/USD may test lower to 0.7118-0.7331.
Gold
Gold price was supported as funds were flowing into gold market with gold ETF's physical gold holdings
increased from 1595 Mt to 1636 Mt. Spot gold /USD rose 1.1% to close at $1294.10 last week. Gold price outlook:
Spot gold/USD may rise to $1,345 gradually.
1
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
Weekly FX Strategies
1.
Bearish - EUR
• The EUR may drop as the ECB may expand QE
• EUR/USD may test lower to 1.0504-1.0765 (8.14-8.35)
2.
Bearish - NZD
• The NZD may be undermined as the RBNZ may turn its monetary policy to neutral
this week
• NZD/USD may test lower to 0.7118-0.7331 (5.52-5.68)
3.
Bullish - Gold
• Gold price may be underpinned amid continuous flow inflows
• Spot gold/USD may rise to $1,322.76-$1,345.17/ounce gradually
2
Weekly FX Focus:
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
ECB's QE may undermine the EUR
• The EUR plunged to 1.12 as the European Central Bank
unveiled a QE programme worth at least 1.1 trillion euros
in total to buy 60 billion euros a month in bonds. We
expect the ECB to expand QE. The EUR may drop to 0.99
in Q3 next year.
Chart 1: ECB monthly bond purchase portfolio (€ 100
millions)
Covered
Bonds &
ABS, 110
• The ECB will buy 43 billion euros worth of government bonds, 6
billion euros worth of supranational bonds and 11 billion euros
worth of covered bonds and ABS through September 2016
(Chart 2).
• The disinflationary pressures in the Eurozone are powerful.
Although the ECB implemented a QE programme worth at least
1.1 trillio euros, it is still difficult for inflation to reach ECB's
target of 2% in 2016-17. As a consequence, sustained and
large stimulus as a response may be required such as:
• 1) Cut rates again: In our view, that further modest inflation
undershoots, a stronger-than-expected euro or weaker activity
data therefore may induce the ECB to cut the deposit rate
further in coming months or quarters.
Supranational
Bonds, 60
Government
Bonds, 430
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 22, 2015
• 2) Expand TLTRO: The ECB may expand TLTRO and also
adjust its communication, e.g. by strengthening its forward
guidance, such as committing to keep rates low until, say, 2018.
• 3) Buy government bonds: The ECB may continue to focus
on asset purchases as their main instruments of further policy
easing in coming years. An increase in size or an extension of
the horizon are likelier. The ECB could relax some of the
constraints of the current purchase programme to tilt it towards
higher-yielding government bond securities.
• 4) Buy corporate bonds: Further ECB easing programmes
will therefore likely include covered bonds and ABS. It is quite
likely that the ECB may, over time, add corporate bonds to the
mix
3
EUR/USD
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
EUR/USD may test lower to 1.0504-1.0765 (8.14-8.35)
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7520 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
1.1204
(8.69)
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st
Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3m
Forecast
6-12m
Forecast
1.1679
(9.05)
1.1115
(8.62)
1.0504
(8.14)
1.0765
(8.35)
1.1640
(9.02)
1.1877
(9.21)
1.15
(8.91)
1.10
(8.53)
Market Recap:

Upcoming Economic Data
Jan 30: Unemployment Rate
Jan 30: CPI
1.1877 (2010 low)
The EUR plunged amid Greek political
uncertainties and a QE programme worth 1.1
trillion euros implemented by the ECB.
EUR Outlook:

Syriza is very likely to be the first nonmainstream party in the Eurozone to lead a
government. Syriza leader Tsipras will be
given a three-day mandate today or tomorrow
to form a government.

The Eurogroup will discuss an extension to
Greece’s bailout (which expires at endFebruary), but a formal request for such an
extension by the Greek government is
required. Negotiations over a follow-up bailout
may well take months to avoid Greek
government default or Grexit.

We expect the direct implications on other
Eurozone countries to be limited in the near
term. However, Syriza's victory will likely lead
to wider concerns about Eurozone political
risks, which may undermine the EUR.
1.1640 (2005 low)
1.0504-1.0765 (Mar &
Sep 2003 lows)
Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD may test lower to 1.0504-1.0765
(8.14-8.35)，with resistance at 1.1640 (9.02).
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 23, 2015
4
Weekly FX Focus:
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
The NZD may be undermined amid RBNZ meeting
• The RBNZ may turn its monetary policy to neutral and talk
down the NZD in the meeting this week due to cooling
inflation. The NZD may still have downside.
Chart 2: New Zealand’s CPI (%)
%
6
• New Zealand's inflation retreated: The Q4 CPI fell by 0.2%
(Chart 2), and dragged yearly CPI through the bottom of the
RBNZ’s 1% to 3% target band to sit at 0.8%.
5
• The weaker result came largely from falling petrol prices. They
fell by 5.7% in Q4 and subtracted -0.3 of a ppt from the
headline CPI print Cementing the CPI’s decline in Q4 was a
14% decline in vegetables. This seasonal swing detracted 0.2
of a ppt from the headline.
3
• The direct impact of falling petrol prices on the CPI might
continue for another quarter of two. The second round impact
of lower petrol prices could include slightly softer price and
wage expectations from households.
• Monetary policy may turn to neutral: We expect the RBNZ
may return to a neutral policy stance and the policy change to
be followed by a lowering in the RBNZ’s CPI inflation forecast
in March Monetary Policy Statement.
4
2014 Q4:
QoQ: -0.2%
YoY: +0.8%
2
1
0
‐1
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 22, 2015
• The RBNZ may talk down the NZD: We expect more
jawboning of the exchange rate. Governor Wheeler may keep
the comment “the exchange rate does not reflect the decline in
export prices this year and remains unjustifiably and
unsustainably high”. NZD/USD may test lower to 0.7118-0.7331.
• Risk factors: We don’t expect the RBNZ to cut the OCR.
There’s no negative output gap in the New Zealand economy.
The unemployment rate is at a five year low and dairy auction
prices appear to have stabilized, which may limit the NZD
downside.
5
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
NZD/USD
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong
dollar, with HKD $7.7520 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
0.7450
(5.78)
0.7808
(6.05)
0.7432
(5.76)
0.7118
(5.52)
0.7331
(5.68)
0.7609
(5.90)
0.7890
(6.12)
0.77
(5.97)
0.67
(5.19)
The NZD may be undermined as the RBNZ may turn its policy
stance to neutral
Weekly recap: The NZD plunged last week as NZ's CPI dropped
0.2% QoQ in Q4 2014, fueling concerns that the RBNZ may cut
rates.
Outlook analysis: Citi analysts expect the RBNZ to turn its policy
stance from hawkish to neutral in the meeting on Thursday, which
may pressure the NZD. However, a rate cut is unlikely in order to
avoid boosting housing prices again.
Technical analysis: NZD/USD may test lower to 0.7118-0.7331
(5.52-5.68) but the downside is limited amid the RSI divergence.
NZD/USD – Daily Chart
0.7609 (Dec 2014 low)
0.7118-0.7331 (2011 low
& fibo 0.382)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 23, 2015
AUD/USD
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
0.7912
(6.13)
0.8244
(6.39)
0.7881
(6.11)
0.7206
(5.59)
0.7704
(5.97)
0.8209
(6.36)
0.8545
(6.62)
0.82
(6.36)
0.72
(5.58)
Further drops in CPI may undermine the AUD
Weekly recap: The AUD dropped amid pressured oil prices and
concerns of China's economic slowdown as China's economy grew
7.3% YoY in Q4 2014 and 7.4% YoY in whole 2014.
Outlook analysis: Australia's Q4 CPI will be released on Wed.
Falling oil prices may pressure CPI but may also boost
consumption and job market. The RBA may change its policy
stance if CPI yearly growth slows down from 0.5% to 0.2% or below.
Technical analysis: AUD/USD may test lower to 0.7704 (5.97) and
0.7206 (5.59), with resistance at 0.8209 (6.36).
AUD/USD – Daily Chart
0.8209 (Jan 9
top)
0.7704 (Jul 2009 low)
0.7206 (fibo 0.764)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 23, 2015
6
SPOT GOLD
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Spot gold/USD may test higher to 1322.76-1345.17
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7520 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st
Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3m
Forecast
6-12m
Forecast
1294.10
1307.98
1272.14
1226.65
1238.32
1322.76
1345.17
1270
1240
Market Recap:

Gold price was supported amid an
unexpected rate cut by the BoC, QE
implemented by the ECB and concerns of
uncertainties brought by Greek election.
Spot Gold Outlook:

As the SNB unexpectedly scrapped
EUR/CHF peg, a surge in volatility triggered
fund inflows into gold ETF. Gold price may be
supported on safe haven demands.

Gold price may be underpinned as data show
global central banks continue to buy gold and
the Reserve Bank of India's rate cut may
increase local demand for gold.

However, rising USD, low inflation and
decreasing hedging demand for gold may
restrain the gold price.
Technical Analysis:

Since spot gold has formed a head and
shoulder pattern, gold price may test higher to
1322.76-1345.17.
1345.17 (Jul
2014 top)
1238.32-1255.34
(Dec & Oct 2014
tops)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 23, 2015
7
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
USD/CAD
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong
dollar, with HKD $7.7520 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
1.2420
(6.24)
1.2456
(6.22)
1.1935
(6.50)
1.1803
(6.57)
1.2202
(6.35)
1.2500
(6.20)
1.3065
(5.93)
1.19
(6.51)
1.25
(6.20)
The CAD may be undermined as the BoC unexpectedly cut the
interest rate by 25 bps.
Weekly recap: The CAD plunged last week as the BoC
unexpectedly cut the interest rate by 25bps to 0.75% and oil prices
dropped further.
Outlook analysis: BoC’s action reflection the central bank’s
concerns that falling oil prices may undermine the economy and
inflation. The BoC may keep the current interest rate until Q1 2016
or even later, which may undermine the CAD in the medium and
long term..
Technical analysis: USD/CAD may test higher to 1.2500 (6.20) &
1.3065 (5.93) upon consolidation, with support at 1.2202 (6.35).
USD/CAD – Daily Chart
1.3065 (2009 top)
1.25 (6-12 month forecast)
1.2202 (fibo 0.764)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 23, 2015
USD/JPY
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
117.77 118.87 116.93 113.52 115.57 120.83 121.85
116
130
(65.82) (65.21) (66.30) (68.29) (67.08) (64.16) (63.62) (66.83) (59.63)
The JPY may be underpinned in the medium and long term as
the BoJ may expand QE in Jul
Weekly recap: Although the BoJ revised down its CPI forecast
from 1.7% to 1.0%, it revised up its economic growth forecast,
which supported the JPY..
Outlook analysis: Although falling oil prices benefit the economy,
inflation downside risks also increase. Moreover, funds may flow
out of Japan as GPIF increases holdings of foreign assets, which
may undermine the JPY in the medium and long term.
Technical analysis: USD/JPY may range trade between 115.57120.83 (67.08-64.16).
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
120.83-121.85
(Dec 23 & 8,
2014 tops)
115.57 (Dec
2014 low)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 23, 2015
8
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
GBP/USD
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong
dollar, with HKD $7.7520 exchange rate for reference
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
GBP/USD – Daily Chart
6-12M
1.4989 1.5213 1.4952 1.4231 1.4814 1.5035 1.5231
1.53
1.47
(11.62) (11.79) (11.59) (11.03) (11.48) (11.66) (11.81) (11.86) (11.39)
The GBP may be undermined as the BoE may delay its rate
hikes until Q1 2015
Weekly recap: The GBP was pressured as the ECB implemented a
QE programme, dragging the EUR down, although U.K. retail sales
grew 4.3% YoY in Dec, much better than expectations of 3.0%.
Outlook analysis: CPI growth may turn to negative due to falling
oil prices, which may force the BoE to delay rate hikes until Q1
2015. Political uncertainties brought by the general election in May
may undermine the GBP. However, low oil prices and rising wage
may limit GBP downside.
Technical analysis: GBP/USD may remain under pressure.
However, the GBP may find support at 1.4814 (11.48) due to the
RSI divergence.
1.50351.5231 (Jan
8 low &
20MA)
1.4814 (Jul 2013
low)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 23, 2015
USD/CNY
Last Price
Last wk High
Last wk Low
0-3M
6-12M
6.2287
6.2312
6.2060
6.22
6.30
USD/CNY – Daily Chart
6.30 (6-12 month forecast)
The CNY may be underpinned as falling oil prices may
increase China's trade income
Weekly recap: China’s economy grew 7.3% YoY in Q4 and 7.4% in
2014. Funds flow into the USD amid concerns of China’s economic
slowdown and rate cuts and QE programmes implemented by
central banks. Thus, USD/CNY rose.
Outlook analysis: Although continuous falling oil prices may
increase China's trade income, which may underpin the CNY, the
government may push down the CNY as a policy tool due to low
inflation and high corporate debts. Moreover, the CNY may be
restrained as the PBoC may cut rates in the 1H 2015 while U.S.
treasury yields may rebound.
6.22 (0-3
month
forecast)
Long-term forecast: 6.10
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 23, 2015
9
Upcoming Economic Figures and Events
The RBNZ meeting may undermine the NZD
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
FOMC rate decision
U.S.
This FOMC has the release of the statement but there will be no accompanying
press conference. At a bottom line we expect few changes to the statement. An
unchanged statement may be read as consistent, hence give greater credibility to
the June lift-off the Fed has suggested, and hence, stronger USD.
2014 Q4 CPI
Australia
Lower petrol prices may help produce a soft CPI result of 0.3% for Q4. This may
drag the yearly CPI print from 2.3% to 1.8%, below the bottom of the RBA’s target
band.
RBNZ rate decision
New
Zealand
The RBNZ won’t change the OCR next Thursday but the Governor should
announce a return to a neutral statement. Falling headline and weak underlying
inflation present an argument that the RBNZ is further ahead of the inflation curve.
We suspect the RBNZ may have to lower their inflation forecasts in March
2014 Q4 GDP
U.K.
Partial data suggest that the economy continued to grow strongly by 0.7% QoQ in
Q4, led by the service sector . Such a figure would mark the first time since 200203 that the economy has grown by at least 0.4% QoQ for eight consecutive
quarters, with yearly growth rising from 2.6% to 2.9%, which may underpin the
GBP.
January 29 (Thur):
FOMC rate decision
Citi forecast
Prior
0.25%
0.25%
January 28 (Wed):
CPI
Citi forecast
Prior
0.30%
0.50%
January 29 (Thur):
RBNZ rate decision
Citi forecast
Prior
3.5%
3.5%
January 27 (Tue):
2014 Q4 GDP (YoY)
Citi forecast
Prior
2.90%
2.60%
10
Appendix 1:
Citi Interest Rate and FX Forecast for 2015
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
Citi FX Outlook Forecast
Dollar Index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/CNY
0-3 month
92.54
1.15
1.53
116
0.83
0.82
0.77
1.19
6.22
Source: Citi, forecast as of Jan 16, 2015
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
JPY
6-12 month
97.95
1.10
1.47
130
0.95
0.72
0.67
1.25
6.30
Forecast
downgraded
Citi FX Interest Rate Forecast
1/23/15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
0.00
2.50
3.50
0.75
2.75
Forecast
upgraded
1Q ’15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
0.00
2.50
3.50
0.75
2.50
Rate cut
expectations
2Q ’15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
0.00
2.50
3.50
0.75
2.25
3Q ’15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
0.00
2.50
3.50
0.75
2.25
Rate hike
expectations
Since weak EUR may be one of the major ECB's objectives and the ECB may implement additional easing, Citi
analysts expect the EUR may consolidate at 1.15 for the coming 0-3 months and may drop to 1.10 in the
medium and long term and parity may be approached in the coming two years.
GBP could be supported in the near term by a still strong economy and possible rate hikes in 2015. GBP/USD may
stabilize at 1.53 for the coming 0-3 months. But political risk premia may rise further out and U.K. is facing the
serious twin fiscal/ current account deficits, which may undermine the GBP. Thus, Citi analysts expect the GBP
to test lower to 1.47 for the coming 6-12 months.
The AUD may be further undermined due to strong USD, larger-than-expected speed and magnitude of decreases
in commodity prices and further deterioration of terms of trade. We expect the AUD to hover around 0.82 for the
coming 0-3 months and drop to 0.72 for the coming 6-12 months.
Since the RBNZ may defer rate hikes to Q4 2015 and commodity prices keep falling, which may be NZD-negative.
We expect the NZD to hover around 0.77 for the coming 0-3 months and drop to 0.72 for the coming 6-12
months
Since the BoJ may expand QE and GPIF is reallocating its portfolio, Citi analysts expect USD/JPY to test higher
to 130.
11
Appendix 2:
Last week’s Economic Figures
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Time
Importance
Event
Period
Actual
Survey
Prior
Monday
01/19/2015 17:00
EC
!
ECB Current Account SA
Nov
18.1B
--
19.5B
01/19/2015 21:30
CA
!
Int'l Securities Transactions
Nov
4.29B
--
9.53B
11.70%
Tuesday
01/20/2015 10:00
CH
!!
Retail Sales YoY
Dec
11.90%
11.80%
01/20/2015 10:00
CH
!!
Industrial Production YoY
Dec
7.90%
7.40%
7.20%
01/20/2015 10:00
CH
!!!
GDP YoY
4Q
7.30%
7.20%
7.30%
01/20/2015 18:00
GE
!
ZEW Survey Expectations
Jan
48.4
40
34.9
Wednesday
01/21/2015 05:45
NZ
!!
CPI YoY
4Q
0.80%
0.90%
1.00%
01/21/2015 07:30
AU
!
Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM
Jan
2.40%
--
-5.70%
01/21/2015 17:30
UK
!!
Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY
Nov
1.70%
1.70%
1.40%
01/21/2015 17:30
UK
!!
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths
Nov
5.80%
5.90%
6.00%
01/21/2015 17:30
UK
!!
Bank of England Minutes
Jan
01/21/2015 21:30
US
!!
Building Permits MoM
Dec
-1.90%
0.80%
-3.70%
01/21/2015 21:30
US
!!
Housing Starts MoM
Dec
4.40%
1.20%
-4.50%
01/21/2015 23:00
CA
!!!
Bank of Canada Rate Decision
Jan
0.75%
1.00%
1.00%
01/21/2015
JN
!!!
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy
Jan
Thursday
01/22/2015 08:00
NZ
!
ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM
Jan
1.90%
--
3.90%
01/22/2015 20:45
EC
!!!
ECB Main Refinancing Rate
Jan
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
01/22/2015 21:30
US
!!
Initial Jobless Claims
Jan
307K
300K
317K
01/23/2015 17:00
EC
!!
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Jan
51.0
51
50.6
01/23/2015 17:30
UK
!!
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
Dec
0.20%
-0.70%
1.70%
01/23/2015 17:30
UK
!!
Retail Sales Incl. Auto MoM
Dec
0.40%
-0.60%
1.60%
01/23/2015 21:30
CA
!!
CPI YoY
Dec
1.50%
1.60%
2.00%
01/23/2015 23:00
US
!!
Existing Home Sales MoM
Dec
2.40%
3.00%
-6.30%
Friday
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
12
Appendix 3:
Upcoming Economic Figures (Jan 26, 2014 – Jan 30, 2015)
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Time
Importance
Event
Period
Actual
Survey
Prior
Dec
4Q
---
-1.80%
1
2.30%
Nov
--
--
2.30%
Dec
Jan
Jan
----
11.50%
-0.40%
106.2
11.50%
-0.20%
105.5
Dec
Dec
Dec
----
-¥736.4B
3.50%
2.60%
-¥925.0B
3.50%
2.70%
Jan
Dec
---
3.50%
75M
3.50%
-213M
4Q
--
2.80%
2.60%
Dec
Nov
Dec
Jan
Jan
Jan
Dec
4Q
Jan
----------
0.50%
4.40%
2.70%
95
0.25%
--3.00%
98.2
-0.70%
4.50%
-1.60%
92.6
0.25%
307K
1.70%
5.00%
98.2
Australia
01/27/2015 08:30
01/28/2015 08:30
Tue
Wed
!
!!!
NAB Business Confidence
CPI YoY
01/30/2015 21:30
Fri
!!!
GDP YoY
01/30/2015 18:00
01/30/2015 18:00
01/26/2015 17:00
Fri
Fri
Mon
!!
!!!
!!
Unemployment Rate
CPI Estimate YoY
IFO Business Climate
01/26/2015 07:50
01/30/2015 07:30
01/30/2015 07:30
Mon
Fri
Fri
!
!!
!!!
Trade Balance Adjusted
Jobless Rate
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY
Canada
Europe / Germany
Japan
New Zealand
01/29/2015 04:00
01/29/2015 05:45
Thur
Thur
!!!
!!
RBNZ Official Cash Rate
Trade Balance
01/27/2015 17:30
Tue
!!
GDP YoY
01/27/2015 21:30
01/27/2015 22:00
01/27/2015 23:00
01/27/2015 23:00
01/29/2015 03:00
01/29/2015 21:30
01/29/2015 23:00
01/30/2015 21:30
01/30/2015 23:00
Tue
Tue
Tue
Tue
Thur
Thur
Thur
Fri
Fri
!!
!
!!
!!
!!!
!!
!
!!!
!!
Durable Goods Orders
S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
New Home Sales MoM
Consumer Confidence Index
FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)
Initial Jobless Claims
Pending Home Sales NSA YoY
GDP Annualized QoQ
U. of Mich. Sentiment
U.K.
U.S.
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
13
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14