FX Weekly Update

October 13, 2014
FX Weekly Update
Contacts : Marc Maeder
Utku Eroglu
Oguz Sanli
Tel : +41 (0)22 909 18 32
e-mail [email protected]
Currency Pair
EUR/USD
USD/CHF
EUR/CHF
GBP/USD
EUR/GBP
USD/JPY
EUR/JPY
USD/TRY
EUR/TRY
USD/ZAR
EUR/SEK
EUR/NOK
EUR/DKK
GOLD
SILVER
Current Price
1.2673
0.9537
1.2086
1.6082
0.7880
107.47
136.20
2.2702
2.8776
11.0363
9.1140
8.2265
7.4437
1'227.65
17.41
Week Close
1.2628
0.9571
1.2087
1.6076
0.7854
107.66
135.96
2.2875
2.8887
11.1200
9.1332
8.2220
7.4436
1'223.16
17.39
% Change
0.36
-0.36
-0.01
0.04
0.34
-0.18
0.18
-0.76
-0.39
-0.76
-0.21
0.05
0.00
0.37
0.11
Month Close
1.2631
0.9551
1.2063
1.6213
0.7791
109.65
138.49
2.2782
2.8780
11.2853
9.1112
8.1162
7.4438
1'208.15
16.98
% Change
0.33
-0.15
0.19
-0.81
1.14
-2.03
-1.68
-0.35
-0.01
-2.26
0.03
1.34
0.00
1.59
2.52
Year Close
1.3743
0.8929
1.2274
1.6557
0.8302
105.31
144.73
2.1482
2.9529
10.4926
8.8482
8.3436
7.4600
1'201.64
19.47
% Change
-8.44
6.38
-1.56
-2.95
-5.35
2.01
-6.26
5.37
-2.62
4.93
2.92
-1.42
-0.22
2.12
-11.81
200d Moving Avg
1.3512
0.9015
1.2174
1.6673
0.8105
103.20
139.39
2.1678
2.9291
10.7438
9.0464
8.2725
7.4584
1'285.98
19.82
100d Moving Avg
1.3286
0.9137
1.2132
1.6693
0.7958
103.91
137.96
2.1618
2.8710
10.7747
9.1662
8.2511
7.4531
1'275.14
19.50
Weekly Comment
EURUSD
Euro area finance ministers will today meet at 14:30. The main
topic will be recommendations to member states on fiscal and
economic policy. There will be particular attention on France which
has already announced that it will not be able to meet the
requirement of cutting the budget deficit to less than 3% of GDP.
There will also be focus on the overall stance of fiscal policy in the
euro area in light of recent weak data in the euro area and
discussions at this weekend's IMF and World Bank meeting.
In the coming week the most important data releases are euro area
industrial production tomorrow and retail sales in the US on
Wednesday.
We still favor selling Euro on rallies up to 1.2780 (building short
position) to test lower in the coming weeks 1.2500 level and lower
USDTRY
USDTRY traded in the 2.25-2.30 range on previous week after
hitting 8 months high on payroll Friday. USD strengthening looks
slowing pace after FED’s Fischer comments which might give
Emerging Market currencies a breath but Turkey’s domestic and
regional problems still putting pressure on Lira. More than 40
people were killed on the ISIS protests last week lead TRY
underperformance against its peers; pushed TRYZAR from 4.95’s
to August lows 4.86’s. On CBT side, CBT still keeping cash tight
after holidays in Turkey, might prevent wild moves on USDTRY.
Our view is still buy the dips on USDTRY. Support levels are
2.2680, 2.2640 and 2.2520 respectively, resistance levels lie on
2.2880, 2.2940 and 2.3070.
Key Events
Date
Country
10/14/2014 10:30
10/14/2014 10:30
10/14/2014 11:00
10/14/2014 11:00
10/15/2014 08:00
10/15/2014 08:00
10/15/2014 10:30
10/15/2014 10:30
10/15/2014 14:30
10/15/2014 14:30
10/15/2014 20:00
10/15/2014 20:01
10/16/2014 11:00
10/16/2014 11:00
10/16/2014 14:30
10/16/2014 14:30
10/16/2014 15:15
10/16/2014 15:15
10/16/2014 16:00
10/16/2014 16:00
10/16/2014 22:00
10/17/2014 14:30
10/17/2014 14:30
10/17/2014 15:55
Event
CPI MoM
RPI MoM
ZEW Survey Current Situation
ZEW Survey Expectations
CPI MoM
CPI YoY
Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths
Empire Manufacturing
Retail Sales Advance MoM
U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
Current Account Balance
CPI MoM
CPI Core YoY
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Industrial Production MoM
Capacity Utilization
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
NAHB Housing Market Index
Total Net TIC Flows
Housing Starts
Consumer Price Index
Univ. of Michigan Confidence
Period
Sep
Sep
Oct
Oct
Sep F
Sep F
Aug
Aug
Oct
Sep
Survey
0.20%
0.30%
15
0
0%
0.80%
0.70%
6.10%
20.9
-0.10%
Prior
0.40%
0.40%
25.4
6.9
0%
0.80%
0.60%
6.20%
27.54
0.60%
Aug
Sep
Sep F
Oct.11
Oct.04
Sep
Sep
Oct
Oct
Aug
Sep
Sep
Oct P
-3.05B
0.40%
0.70%
290000
2380k
0.40%
79%
20
59
-2.63b
0.10%
0.70%
287000
2381k
-0.10%
78.80%
22.5
59
57.7b
-14.40%
125.7
84.6
5.10%
84.1
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