Global Markets Research Weekly Market Highlights Macroeconomics

October 17, 2014
Global Markets Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Macroeconomics
Weekly Performance
•
Macro
Currency
Equity
10-y Govt Bond
Yields
↔
↔
↓
↑
UK
↑
↓
Japan
↓
↑
↑
↑
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
↑
↔
↔
↓
↓
US
EU
Malaysia
China
Hong Kong
Singapore
↓
↓
↓
Economic data turned out neutral overall but markets have been in a rollercoaster ride amid flip-flopping dataflow in the US this week. Nonetheless, Fed
Beige Book reiterated its assessment on “modest to moderate” growth outlook.
•
Markets were also swamped by Fed speeches that sent mixed messages. Fed
Chair Yellen was reported as seeking to reassure that economic expansion in
the US is sustainable despite recent noises on risks from slowing global
growth which implied no change to the Fed policy normalization path. This
contradicted with Fed President Bullard’s suggestion that the Fed should
consider delaying concluding its QE this month, which we think are unlikely.
•
Numerous key economic indicators are scheduled next week. Markit PMI
readings across the globe will offer the first glimpse on how manufacturing
↓
↓
↓
activities performed in October. China’s data dump comprising 3Q GDP and
the usual retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment will be
scrutinized to gauge the extent of the slowdown. UK will also release its
advance estimate of 3Q GDP and we expect some slight moderation from 2Q.
Meanwhile, RBA minutes is not expected to offer much new insights.
Forex
•
Weekly MYR Performance
MYR fell for 5 consecutive days on a resurgent USD as well as retreating risk
appetite, slumping 1.21% WOW against USD to 3.2835, its weakest level in 28
weeks. Sell-off led MYR weaker against all G10s. MYR weakness is likely to
MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW)
AUD
continue in the absence of positive catalysts next week and from a diverging
interest rate outlook between the US and Malaysia, with 3.30 handle crucial to
0.91
SGD
prevent further weakness. However, recent MYR movements have mostly
1.01
1.04
GBP
1.19
HKD
been driven by broader market sentiments and more so by USD-strength, thus
MYR
Depreciated
any significant weakness in USD would trigger MYR recovery.
•
recovery in the US and derailing bets on higher Fed Fund Rate. The Dollar
Index initially rebounded on haven demand as markets slipped but fell further
1.34
CNY
USD strength finally retreated, closing lower against 8 G10s amid growing
concerns over economic outlook in Europe and Japan dampening prospects of
1.21
USD
2.17
EUR
on US data weakness and failed to recover even as data improved, closing at
2.50
CHF
its lowest in 3 weeks at 84.95. We maintain our view of a softening USD on the
back of dimmed economic and higher interest rate outlook. Pull-back in USD
2.66
JPY
stemming from warnings of downside impact of a strong currency is likely to
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
accelerate if next week’s reports show US price pressure and manufacturing
growth softens. Despite this week’s retreat, we opine that USD remains
elevated at current level and this could cap further rally in the USD.
Indicative Yields
Fixed Income
•
This week, UST staged a strong rally with 10-year yields touching a fresh low
of 1.86% before retracing higher. Looming concerns over global growth
outlook, Negative Rating Watch on Europe’s ESM and disappointing US retail
sales prompted flight to quality. At time of writing, 10-year yields remains
benign trading at 2.16% level with some investors redialing back their
estimates in terms of timing of US normalization.
Fed St Louis President
Bullard suggested that the Fed should consider delaying the end of its bond
buying programme to halt decline in inflation expectations. Policymakers are
scheduled to meet on Oct 28-29. With focus on global growth for now, we
expect UST to remain supported.
•
On the local front, combination of positive fiscal consolidation vibes and rally in
UST provided fresh leads for local govvies. Selective bargain hunting by
offshore investors seen emerging for papers on the belly and long-end of
curve. Benchmark yields ended on biddish mode, with the 10-year MGS 7/24
trading at 3.78% at time of writing. Interestingly, GII 5/24 was again actively
traded with levels compressed to 4.09% level. We opine the yield pickup in GII
Please see important disclosure at the end of the report
5/24 just got louder with a wide 31-32 bps versus MGS 7/24, following the rally
this week. With less sanguine growth outlook stirring investors’ concern, we
expect MYR bonds to remain supported. Prospects of UST yields
compressed lower, could again amplify the appeal of MYR govvies in
terms of carry trade.
1
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Contents
2
Macroeconomics
Page 3
Forex
Page 4
Trading Idea
Page 5
FX Technicals
Page 6
Fixed Income
Page 7
Economic Calendar
Page 8
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review
•
Macroeconomics
coaster ride amid flip-flopping dataflow in the US this week – significantly
better one day and worse the next. Nonetheless, Fed Beige Book
reiterated its assessment on “modest to moderate” growth in the US.
Businesses were generally optimistic, employment gains were reported to
6-month Macro Outlook
US
EU
UK
Japan
Australia
China
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Singapore
Economic data turned out neutral overall but markets have been in a roller-
Economy
Inflation
Interest
Rate
Currency
↔
↔
↔
↓
↔
↓
↓
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↑
↑
↔
↓
↔
↔
↔
↔
↑
↓
↔
↔
↑
↓
↔
↓
↓
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
be steady, consumer spending was slight to moderate but price pressures
are subdued. In line with this, this week’s report showed initial jobless
claims fell to its lowest in 14 years, while retail sales weakened more than
expected with a 0.3% MOM decline in September.
•
Markets were also swamped by Fed speeches that sent mixed messages.
Fed Chair Yellen was reported as seeking to reassure that economic
expansion in the US is sustainable despite recent noises on risks from
slowing global growth which implied no change to the Fed policy
normalization path. This contradicted with Fed President Bullard’s
suggestion that the Fed should consider delaying concluding its QE this
month, which we think are unlikely.
•
China’s exports gathered speed with a 15.3% YOY gain in September, its
best in 19 months and raised doubts again over the authenticity of the
numbers, especially given that growth was reported to be boosted by
higher shipment to Hong Kong. While this soothed concern over a steeper
slowdown to some extent, the bigger than expected softening in consumer
prices to 1.6% YOY in September reaffirmed the case of subdued price
pressure as domestic demand remains soft in China.
•
Advance estimate showed the Singapore economy sustained a 2.4% YOY
increase in 3Q, supported by steady gains in services and manufacturing.
Construction sector saw a sharply lower growth of 1.4% YOY in 3Q. This
defied expectations for a 2.7% print and signaled the anticipated pick-up in
the Singapore economy in 2H is not a given although on a seasonally
adjusted QOQ basis, growth rebounded to increase 1.2%. Just released
dismal gain in NODX further testified to this observation. Meantime, MAS
maintained its “modest and gradual appreciation” monetary policy stance
as it projects core inflation to stay above its historical average over the
next few quarters given higher cost pressure from tight labour market and
food imports.
The Week Ahead…
•
Numerous key economic indicators are scheduled next week. Markit PMI
readings across the globe will offer the first glimpse on how manufacturing
activities performed in October. China’s data dump comprising 3Q GDP
and the usual retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment
will be scrutinized to gauge the extent of the slowdown. UK will also
release its advance estimate of 3Q GDP and we expect some slight
moderation from 2Q. Besides, RBA minutes is not expected to offer much
new insights, merely reiterating that maintaining rates remains the most
prudent course and that the Aussie remains overvalued.
•
Other major data in the pipeline include: existing home sales, new home
sales, CPI, initial jobless claims and leading index in the US; Eurozone
consumer confidence and PMI services; UK Rightmove house prices, retail
sales, public finances, BBA home loans; Japan leading index, nationwide
dept store sales, all industry activity index, exports; Australia and New
Zealand quarterly CPI and PPI, and CPI from Hong Kong and Singapore.
•
Back home, September CPI due today is expected to show a dip to 2.4%
as a result of the higher base stemming from the cutback in petrol subsidy
last September. CPI is expected to trend back up above 3.0% in October
as effects from the 20sen hike in RON 95 and diesel prices kick in.
3
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review and Outlook
Forex
•
MYR: MYR fell for 5 consecutive days on a resurgent USD as well as retreating
risk appetite, slumping 1.21% WOW against USD to 3.2835, its weakest level
MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW)
AUD
in 28 weeks. Sell-off led MYR lower against all G10s. MYR is likely to continue
trending towards weakness in the absence of positive catalysts next week and
0.91
SGD
from a diverging interest rate outlook between the US and Malaysia, with 3.30
1.01
1.04
GBP
1.19
HKD
handle crucial to prevent further weakness. However, recent MYR movements
MYR
Depreciated
have mostly been driven by broader market sentiments and more so by USDstrength, thus any significant weakness in USD would trigger MYR recovery.
1.21
USD
•
1.34
CNY
2.17
EUR
prospects of recovery in the US and derailing bets on higher Fed Fund Rate.
2.50
CHF
The Dollar Index initially rebounded on haven demand as markets slipped but
2.66
JPY
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
USD: USD strength finally retreated, closing lower against 8 G10s amid
growing concerns over economic outlook in Europe and Japan dampening
2.50
fell further on US data weakness and failed to recover even as data improved,
closing lowest in 3 weeks at 84.95. We maintain our view of a softening USD
on the back of dimmed economic and higher interest rate outlook. Pull-back in
3.00
USD stemming from warnings of downside impact of a strong currency is likely
to accelerate if US price pressure and manufacturing growth softens. Despite
Source: Bloomberg
this week’s retreat, we opine that USD at current level remains elevated and
advance will continue to be challenging.
USD vs the G10s (% WOW)
•
NOK
-1.08
-0.65
USD
Depreciated
CAD
-0.31 AUD
-0.18 GBP
economic outlook and we believe next week’s data, unless showing drastically
improved figures, will unlikely drive EURUSD’s recovery. Gains are still
possible, however, on extended USD retreat. Breaking and holding above 1.29
0.90
0.93
1.00
1.12
1.26
DKK
USD
Appreciated
EUR: EUR was able to advance 0.93% WOW to 1.2809 against USD solely
because of the greenback’s retreat, and the recovery along the way led it
higher against 6 G10s. There is currently no sign of turnaround in Eurozone’s
EUR
SEK
NZD
CHF
handle will be crucial to launch further climbs.
•
WOW at 1.6087 amid firmer refuge demand as European markets slipped, but
still closed lower against 7 G10s. We note that GBP has been very fickle
1.42
JPY
GBP: GBP managed to close the gap on its losses against USD to 0.18%
through the week as markets tried to balance between rising prospects of a
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
prolonged low-rate environment in the UK amid softening prices (GBP bearish),
and dimming global economic outlook delaying US rate hike decision (USD
bearish). Despite our view of a soft USD next week, GBP gains may be limited
Source: Bloomberg
to early week before possibly being tilted lower by BOE minutes, retail sales
and GDP reports. We believe staying above 1.60 handle will provide additional
support to challenge higher grounds.
USD vs Asian Curencies (% WOW)
-1.28
•
INR
-1.21
-0.71
PHP
-0.60
weakness next week are intact, and that would assert JPY’s strength on refuge
USD
Depreciated
demand. We believe this strength to be temporary as longer-term JPY
IDR
movement remains biased to the downside from economic concerns, which
-0.21 SGD
-0.03 HKD
USD
Appreciated
TWD
THB
CNY
KRW
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
JPY: JPY rallied to beat all G10s as markets slumped, and strengthened
1.42% WOW against USD to close at 106.33. Currently, signs of further market
MYR
would affirm the need for further monetary policy support from BOJ.
•
0.00
AUD: AUD was also driven to highs and lows by a volatile USD, but closed
0.31% WOW lower at 0.8756 and fell against 8 G10s amid retreating risk
0.05
appetite damping its demand. We currently maintain our view of a slightly
0.12
bullish AUD in line with our view of a softer USD. Nonetheless, we believe
0.26
AUDUSD will stay locked within 0.8640 – 0.8846, with holding above 0.88
0.50
handle providing improved chances of recovering further. But even holding
above that key level will be in vain if AUDUSD receives no upside support from
reasonable Chinese data, or renewed downside pressure from RBA minutes.
Source: Bloomberg
•
SGD: SGD weakened against 8 G10s following retreating risk appetite that
dampened fund inflows, and weakened 0.21% WOW against USD to close at
1.2742. SGD may still climb on the back of a soft USD but we expect gains to
be very narrow given downside pressure from stalled fund inflows as markets
are likely to continue slipping.
4
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Technical Analysis:
Currency
Current price
14-day RSI
Support - Resistance
EURUSD
1.2812
51
1.2540
GBPUSD
1.6078
43
1.5902
USDJPY
106.2800
41
USDCNY
6.1233
37
USDSGD
1.2728
AUDUSD
0.8781
NZDUSD
Moving Averages
Call
30 Days
100 Days
200 Days
1.2889
1.2540
1.2889
1.2781
POSITIVE
1.6411
1.5902
1.6411
1.6185
POSITIVE
105.91
110.48
105.9100
110.4800
107.9300
NEGATIVE
6.1210
6.1497
6.1210
6.1497
6.1363
NEGATIVE
54
1.2670
1.2797
1.2670
1.2797
1.2702
NEGATIVE
44
0.8666
0.8891
0.8666
0.8891
0.8878
POSITIVE
0.7945
47
0.7700
0.8095
0.7700
0.8095
0.7993
POSITIVE
USDMYR
3.2835
65
3.2354
3.2898
3.2354
3.2898
3.2450
POSITIVE
EURMYR
4.2070
63
4.0880
4.2045
4.0880
4.2045
4.1466
POSITIVE
GBPMYR
5.2791
54
5.1939
5.3462
5.1939
5.3462
5.2488
POSITIVE
JPYMYR
3.0895
66
2.9387
3.0932
2.9387
3.0932
3.0070
POSITIVE
CHFMYR
3.4842
64
3.3768
3.4851
3.3768
3.4851
3.4312
POSITIVE
SGDMYR
2.5798
65
2.5471
2.5797
2.5471
2.5797
2.5559
POSITIVE
AUDMYR
2.8833
51
2.8410
2.8891
2.8410
2.8891
2.8829
POSITIVE
NZDMYR
2.6087
55
2.5194
2.6329
2.5194
2.6329
2.5935
POSITIVE
Trader’s Comment:
Yet another week of immense market volatility. Equities across major markets flip flopped as US officials continue to
make statements that contradict each other. Traders were at lost with FX markets were mostly headlines driven on
those statements.
Equities across were pummeled on Tuesday night with SPX down 3% at 1 point and 10y UST down to 1.88%, largest
single-day move since March 2009. The blame game pointed at fresh worries about Ebola striking the US and global
slowdown affecting US growth. US retail sales weaker than expected while PPI was lower than expectations as well,
deflationary pressures back on the thought train. USD gets sold but in a risk off environment, USD/Asia could only
track the USD sentiment for just so much before selling of EM currency took charge, that said USD/Asia pretty stable
except USD/JPY was given to 105.20 before opening Asia at 106.02 on Wednesday.
All in all it’s been a choppy whole week, crude tested $80 while 10y UST looked to test 2.0% again. US data slightly
better with jobless claims and IP on Thursday night and dovish statements from Bullard suggesting a later end of QE
saw equities everything being reversed. USD/EM got paid up a bunch, Notably USDINR to 62.33, USDPHP to
45.10, USDIDR to 12400, and USDMYR to 3.3080 while USDCNH saw a very quick move from 6.1380 to 6.1552
with forwards in demand as well. At the close, SPX, DJI unchanged while Crude firmer at 83, 10y UST 2.155% and
USDJPY 90 pts off the lows at 106.44 this morning. Volatility is definitely back, but it hasn't made it any easier to
trade this market.
Happy Friday.
5
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
FX Technical Charts
USDMYR
EURMYR
Resistance: 3.2898
Support: 3.2354
Resistance: 4.2045
Support: 4.0880
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
GBPMYR
JPYMYR
Resistance: 5.3462
Resistance: 3.0932
Support: 5.1939
Support: 2.9387
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
AUDMYR
SGDMYR
Resistance: 2.5797
Resistance: 2.8891
Support: 2.5471
Support: 2.8410
Source: Bloomberg
6
Source: Bloomberg
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review & Outlook
Fixed Income
%
•
Benchmark MGS Yields
3Y MGS
5Y MGS
10Y MGS
5.2
This week, UST staged a strong rally with 10-year yields touching a
fresh low of 1.86% before retracing higher. Looming concerns over
global growth outlook, Negative Rating Watch on Europe’s ESM and
disappointing US retail sales prompted flight to quality. At time of
writing, 10-year yields remains benign trading at 2.16% level with
some investors redialing back their estimates in terms of timing of US
4.7
4.2
normalization. Fed St Louis President Bullard suggested that the Fed
should consider delaying the end of its bond buying programme to
3.7
halt decline in inflation expectations. Policymakers are scheduled to
meet on Oct 28-29 as US FOMC meeting awaits. With focus on
global growth for now, we expect UST to remain supported.
3.2
2.7
bps
MGS Yield Spread
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
2.2
•
investors seen emerging for papers on the belly and long-end of
curve. Benchmark yields ended on biddish mode, with the 10-year
3/10Y
200
3/5Y
MGS 7/24 trading at 3.78% at time of writing. Interestingly, GII 5/24
was again actively traded with levels compressed to 4.09% level. We
150
opine the yield pickup in GII 5/24 just got louder with a wide 31-32
bps versus MGS 7/24, following the rally this week. With global
growth less optimistic and somber Eurozone outlook stirring
investors’ concern, we opine MYR bonds are expected to stay
supported for now, paving the way for a trading window for investors.
Prospects of UST yields compressed lower, could again amplify the
appeal of MYR govvies in terms of carry trade.
100
50
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
0
-50
•
%
MYR IRS Curve
6.0
3Y IRS
5Y IRS
7Y IRS
5.5
5.0
4.5
On the local front, combination of positive fiscal consolidation vibes
and rally in UST provided fresh leads for local govvies, with trading
volume surging higher. Selective bargain hunting by offshore
During the week, the RM2.5b reopening of MGS 4/30 garnered a
more moderate BTC print of 1.73x suggesting valuations for the
mentioned tender was somewhat fairly priced. In terms of
comparable relative value, we opine the GII 12/28 appears more
attractive, benefiting from both wider pickup versus MGS 4/30 as well
as a shorter modified duration. Hence, we opine investors have yet to
fully recognize the compelling valuations of GII 12/28.
4.0
•
3.5
Tracking the positive momentum in MYR govvies, trading sentiments
improved further in the PDS front. A slew of power sector credits on
the AA space were actively traded to the likes of Tanjung Bin Power
3.0
2.5
and Jimah Energy Ventures as investors continue to move down the
credit curve in search for relative pickup. Also traded were longer
dated AAA PLUS ’27 and ’28, as the recent rally in MGS has
somewhat increased the appeal of these papers –wider spreads and
pickup versus MGS/GII.
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
2.0
•
Rating Actions
Issuer
PDS Description
Rating/Outlook
Action
WCT Holdings Berhad's (WCT
Holdings)
Jimah East Power Sdn Bhd's (JEP)
Sukuk Murabahah Programme of up to RM1.5 billion
AA-
Proposed Sukuk Murabahah Programme of up to RM8.4
billion.
Proposed RM1.0 billion Sukuk Murabahah Programme
AA-
Assigned (Final
Rating)
Assigned
AA- (Stable)
Assigned
AA1 (Stable)
Affirmed
AAA/AA2
(Stable)
Assigned
Malaysia Marine and Heavy
Engineering Holdings Berhad
Gulf International Bank BSC
Financial institution ratings
Proposed up to RM3.5 billion Sukuk Wakalah MTN
Programme
Premium Commerce
Proposed Notes Series 2014-A
Source: MARC, RAM
7
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Economic Calendar Release Date
Date
Country
10/23
MY
10/31
10/21
Event
Foreign Reserves
Money Supply M3 YoY
US
10/22
Existing Home Sales MoM
Prior
Revised
15-Oct
--
$127.3B
--
Sep
--
4.80%
--
Sep
0.80%
-1.80%
--
--
5.60%
--
CPI MoM
Sep
0.00%
-0.20%
--
Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
Sep
--
-0.21
--
Initial Jobless Claims
18-Oct
--
264K
--
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
Oct P
57.5
57.5
--
Leading Index
Sep
0.70%
0.20%
--
Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
Oct
--
6
--
10/24
New Home Sales MoM
Sep
-6.30%
18.00%
--
10/27
Markit US Services PMI
Oct P
--
58.9
--
10/28
Pending Home Sales MoM
Sep
--
-1.00%
--
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
Oct
--
10.8
--
Durable Goods Orders
Sep
--
-18.20%
-18.40%
S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
Aug
--
6.75%
--
Consumer Confidence Index
Oct
--
86
--
Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
Oct
--
14
--
10/29
MBA Mortgage Applications
24-Oct
--
--
--
10/30
Fed QE3 Pace
Oct
--
$15B
--
Fed Pace of Treasury Pur
Oct
--
$10B
--
Fed Pace of MBS Purchases
10/31
10/20
Eurozone
10/23
Oct
--
$5B
--
FOMC Rate Decision
29-Oct
0.25%
0.25%
--
Initial Jobless Claims
25-Oct
--
--
--
GDP Annualized QoQ
3Q A
--
4.60%
--
Personal Income
Sep
--
0.30%
--
Personal Spending
Sep
--
0.50%
--
PCE Core MoM
Sep
--
0.10%
--
Chicago Purchasing Manager
Oct
--
60.5
--
Univ. of Michigan Confidence
Oct F
--
--
--
ECB Current Account SA
Aug
--
18.7B
--
Current Account NSA
Aug
--
32.3B
--
Oct P
--
50.3
--
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
10/28-11/05
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
Oct P
--
52.4
--
Consumer Confidence
Oct A
--
-11.4
--
Economic Confidence
Oct
--
99.9
--
Consumer Confidence
--
European Commission Economic Forecasts
10/30
10/31
Oct F
--
--
Business Climate Indicator
Oct
--
0.07
--
Unemployment Rate
Sep
--
11.50%
--
CPI Core YoY
10/20
GE
PPI YoY
Oct A
--
0.80%
--
Sep
--
-0.80%
--
10/23
Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI
Oct P
--
49.9
--
Markit Germany Services PMI
Oct P
--
55.7
--
10/24
GfK Consumer Confidence
Nov
--
8.3
--
Import Price Index MoM
Sep
--
-0.10%
--
IFO Business Climate
Oct
--
104.7
--
10/27
8
Survey
17-Oct
MBA Mortgage Applications
10/23
Reporting
Period
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
10/30
IFO Current Assessment
Oct
--
110.5
--
IFO Expectations
Oct
--
99.3
--
Retail Sales MoM
Sep
--
2.50%
--
Unemployment Change (000's)
Oct
--
12K
--
Unemployment Rate
Oct
--
6.70%
---
CPI YoY
10/23
FR
Oct P
--
0.80%
Business Survey Overall Demand
Oct
--
-6
--
Manufacturing Confidence
Oct
--
96
--
Business Confidence
Oct
--
91
--
Markit France Manufacturing PMI
Oct P
--
48.8
--
Markit France Services PMI
Oct P
--
48.4
--
10/29
Consumer Confidence
Oct
--
86
--
10/31
Consumer Spending MoM
Sep
--
0.70%
--
PPI MoM
Sep
--
-0.30%
---
10/20
IT
Industrial Sales MoM
Aug
--
-1.00%
Industrial Orders MoM
Aug
--
-1.50%
--
10/24
Retail Sales MoM
Aug
--
-0.10%
--
Consumer Confidence Index
Oct
--
102
--
10/28
Business Confidence
Oct
--
95.1
--
Economic Sentiment
Oct
--
86.6
--
Unemployment Rate
Sep P
--
12.30%
--
CPI EU Harmonized YoY
Oct P
--
-0.10%
--
10/31
PPI MoM
Sep
--
0.00%
--
Rightmove House Prices YoY
Oct
--
7.90%
--
10/21
Public Finances (PSNCR)
Sep
--
1.6B
--
10/22
Bank of England Minutes
10/23
Retail Sales Incl. Auto MoM
Sep
--
0.40%
--
BBA Loans for House Purchase
Sep
--
41588
--
CBI Trends Total Orders
Oct
--
-4
--
GDP QoQ
3Q A
--
0.90%
--
GDP YoY
3Q A
--
3.20%
--
10/20
UK
10/24
Index of Services MoM
Aug
--
0.30%
--
10/27
CBI Reported Sales
Oct
--
31
--
Nationwide House Px NSA YoY
Oct
--
9.40%
--
10/29
Net Consumer Credit
Sep
--
0.9B
--
Mortgage Approvals
Sep
--
64.2K
--
Lloyds Business Barometer
Oct
--
57
--
10/30
10/31
10/20
10/21
GfK Consumer Confidence
Japan
Oct
--
-1
--
Leading Index CI
Aug F
--
104
--
Coincident Index
--
Aug F
--
108.5
Nationwide Dept Sales YoY
Sep
--
-0.30%
--
Convenience Store Sales YoY
Sep
--
-2.40%
--
All Industry Activity Index MoM
Aug
-0.40%
-0.20%
--
Supermarket Sales YoY
Sep
--
-0.10%
--
Trade Balance
Sep
¥771.5B
¥948.5B
¥949.7B
Exports YoY
Sep
6.6
-1.3
--
Imports YoY
Sep
2.8
-1.5
-1.4
Oct P
52
51.7
--
Sep
--
3.50%
--
Cabinet Monthly Economic Report for October
10/22
9
10/23
Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI
10/31
Jobless Rate
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Overall Household Spending YoY
Sep
--
-4.70%
--
Natl CPI YoY
Sep
--
3.30%
--
Housing Starts YoY
Sep
--
-12.50%
--
Construction Orders YoY
10/21
China
Sep
--
8.60%
--
BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target
31-Oct
--
Â¥270T
--
Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY
Sep
16.30%
16.50%
--
Retail Sales YoY
Sep
11.70%
11.90%
--
Industrial Production YoY
Sep
7.50%
6.90%
--
GDP YoY
3Q
7.20%
7.50%
--
10/23
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI
Oct P
49.9
50.2
--
10/28
Industrial Profits YoY
Sep
--
-0.60%
--
Leading Index
Sep
--
100.09
--
Conf. Board Leading Index MoM
Aug
--
0.50%
--
Westpac Leading Index MoM
Sep
--
-0.10%
--
CPI QoQ
3Q
--
0.50%
--
CPI YoY
3Q
--
3.00%
--
10/23
NAB Business Confidence
3Q
--
6
--
10/30
HIA New Home Sales MoM
Sep
--
3.30%
--
Import price index QoQ
3Q
--
-3.00%
---
10/29
10/21
Australia
10/22
10/31
10/20
NZ
10/23
RBA Minutes of Oct. Meeting
Export price index QoQ
3Q
--
-7.90%
PPI QoQ
3Q
--
-0.10%
--
PPI YoY
3Q
--
2.30%
--
Performance Services Index
Sep
--
57.9
--
ANZ Consumer Confidence Index
Oct
--
127.7
--
CPI QoQ
3Q
--
0.30%
--
CPI YoY
3Q
--
1.60%
--
Trade Balance
Sep
--
-472M
--
Exports
Sep
--
3.52B
--
Imports
Sep
--
4.00B
--
10/29
ANZ Activity Outlook
Oct
--
37
--
10/30
RBNZ Official Cash Rate
10/24
ANZ Business Confidence
10/31
Oct
--
13.4
--
30-Oct
3.50%
3.50%
--
Building Permits MoM
Sep
--
0.00%
--
CPI YoY
Oct
--
3.62%
--
10/27-10/31
Exports YTD YoY
Oct
--
14.10%
--
10/27
Imports YTD YoY
Oct
--
11.10%
--
Trade Balance
Oct
--
-$600M
--
Retail Sales YTD YoY
Oct
--
11.10%
--
Industrial Production YoY
Oct
--
8.60%
--
CPI YoY
Sep
1.00%
0.90%
--
Industrial Production YoY
Sep
-2.00%
4.20%
--
Unemployment rate SA
3Q P
--
2.00%
--
Sept
3.4%
3.3%
--
CPI YOY
Sept
6.2%
3.9%
--
Exports YOY
Sept
--
6.4%
--
10/24
10/23
10/24
10/31
10/20
10/21
10/27
Source: Bloomberg
10
Vietnam
Singapore
Hong Kong Unemployment rate
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Hong Leong Bank Berhad
Fixed Income & Economic Research, Global Markets
Level 6, Wisma Hong Leong
18, Jalan Perak
50450 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: 603-2773 0469
Fax: 603-2164 9305
Email: [email protected]
DISCLAIMER
This report is for information purposes only and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs
of any particular recipient. The information contained herein does not constitute the provision of investment advice and is not intended as
an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any of the financial instruments mentioned in this report and will not form the
basis or a part of any contract or commitment whatsoever.
The information contained in this publication is derived from data obtained from sources believed by Hong Leong Bank Berhad (“HLBB”) to
be reliable and in good faith, but no warranties or guarantees, representations are made by HLBB with regard to the accuracy,
completeness or suitability of the data. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the authors of the report and do not
necessarily represent the opinion of HLBB or any of the companies within the Hong Leong Bank Group (“HLB Group”). The opinions
reflected herein may change without notice and the opinions do not necessarily correspond to the opinions of HLBB. HLBB does not have
an obligation to amend, modify or update this report or to otherwise notify a reader or recipient thereof in the event that any matter stated
herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate.
HLB Group, their directors, employees and representatives do not have any responsibility or liability to any person or recipient (whether by
reason of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) arising from any statement, opinion or information, expressed or implied, arising
out of, contained in or derived from or omission from the reports or matter. HLBB may, to the extent permitted by law, buy, sell or hold
significantly long or short positions; act as investment and/or commercial bankers; be represented on the board of the issuers; and/or
engage in ‘market making’ of securities mentioned herein. The past performance of financial instruments is not indicative of future results.
Whilst every effort is made to ensure that statements of facts made in this report are accurate, all estimates, projections, forecasts,
expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments contained in this report are based on assumptions considered to be reasonable as
of the date of the document in which they are contained and must not be construed as a representation that the matters referred to therein
will occur. Any projections or forecasts mentioned in this report may not be achieved due to multiple risk factors including without limitation
market volatility, sector volatility, corporate actions, the unavailability of complete and accurate information. No assurance can be given that
any opinion described herein would yield favorable investment results. Recipients who are not market professional or institutional investor
customer of HLBB should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on the
recommendations in this report.
HLBB may provide hyperlinks to websites of entities mentioned in this report, however the inclusion of a link does not imply that HLBB
endorses, recommends or approves any material on the linked page or accessible from it. Such linked websites are accessed entirely at
your own risk. HLBB does not accept responsibility whatsoever for any such material, nor for consequences of its use.
This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any
state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report
is for the use of the addressees only and may not be redistributed, reproduced or passed on to any other person or published, in part or in
whole, for any purpose, without the prior, written consent of HLBB. The manner of distributing this report may be restricted by law or
regulation in certain countries. Persons into whose possession this report may come are required to inform themselves about and to
observe such restrictions. By accepting this report, a recipient hereof agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
11
Fixed Income & Economic Research