Gold & Silver Marketwatch
Transcription
Gold & Silver Marketwatch
Strategist Contact Information Global Research Russell Browne - [email protected] Trading Contacts Gold & Silver Marketwatch Reuters MMCN or (212) 225-6200 Stephen Abbriano - [email protected] Robert Lockwood - [email protected] Daily Update Friday, January 30, 2015 Market Commentary 1-Day Commodity Moves (%) Gold moved higher overnight as it opened the day at 1261.50/1262.50. It rose initially following weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP data before declining to a low of 1257.50/1258.50. The metal then made a quick rebound as U.S. equities retreated and Brent crude oil advanced to a three week high. Gold closed at the intraday high of 1278.00/1279.00. Silver edged higher overnight, opening the session at 16.90/16.95. It dipped to a low of 16.79/16.84 before following gold to a high of 17.29/17.34, prior to concluding the session at 17.17/17.22. Gold 2.1 Silver 1.8 Platinum 1.6 Palladium -0.1 Oil WTI fut 6.8 Copper fut 2.1 EUR -0.1 S&P 500 -0.9 CRB 2.9 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 5-Day Commodity Moves (%) Technical Commentary Silver has closed at 17.20, barely retracing any of Thursday’s decline. Daily candles hint to intraday support at the 100 day MA (16.81), and we note that silver was unable to close above its 21 day MA (17.22). The monthly data highlight the absence of a trend, and bearish momentum indicators appear to be showing signs of moderation. Gold -1.4 Gold has closed at 1278.50, retracing a portion of Thursday’s decline to end January with its first significant monthly gain (8.21%) since June. Monthly momentum indicators have turned neutral, as we note the appearance of support around the 100 month MA (1196.46) and resistance around the 21 month MA (1274.09). Trend indicators have also shifted to neutral. Silver -5.9 Platinum -3.6 Palladium -0.4 4.3 Oil WTI fut Copper fut 0.1 EUR 0.9 S&P 500 -2.4 CRB 1.0 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 1 Month Commodity Moves (%) Gold 8.5 Silver The gold-silver ratio has risen modestly, climbing further from Thursday’s rally to close at a two-week high. The monthly candles are bullish, as we note the extended lower shadows for both December and January, with December having formed a doji (typically suggestive of uncertainty) and January having formed a hammer (bullish). The ratio has yet to test expected support at the 9 week MA (69.75) and we await a break above 75.50. 9.1 Platinum 3.1 Palladium Oil WTI fut -4.6 -12.1 Copper fut -12.3 EUR -7.0 S&P 500 -3.7 CRB -6.3 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 1/30/15 15:51 (last updated) Notable Ranges & Technical Levels Gold Open High Low Close / Last Mid* London Pricing AM London Pricing PM Handy Harman (Base) Gold / Silver Ratio Open Interest COMEX CBOT Total 1261.50/1262.50 1278.00/1279.00 1257.50/1258.50 1278.00/1279.00 1,263.50 1,260.25 1,260.25 74.48 Gold OI 418,171 28 418,199 5 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Source: Bloomberg Technical Levels etc. Technical Levels, Silver 16.90/16.95 17.29/17.34 16.79/16.84 17.17/17.22 16.92 NA 17.220 NA Platinum 1,220.50 1,243.25 1,216.95 1,239.60 1,230.00 1,221.00 1,221.00 NA Silver OI 163,469 5 163,474 Gold Palladium 773.75 784.20 770.85 773.15 783.00 775.00 775.00 NA Pivot Primary Support (Buy) Primary Resistance (Sell) HBOP LBOP Bollinger Band Upper Bollinger Band Mid Bollinger Band Lower Relative Strength 9 Day Relative Strength 14 Day 1,275.53 1,265.08 1,293.87 1,322.66 1,236.29 1,327.79 1,254.65 1,181.51 58 60 Silver 17.367 16.690 17.919 19.149 15.460 18.811 17.242 15.673 47 51 Platinum Palladium 1,236 1,215 1,261 1,307 1,169 1,294 1,247 1,199 47 49 779.38 761.67 790.87 820.07 732.47 816.71 784.56 752.40 44 45 Close/last mid refers to the spot closing floor price in gold and silver, and spot’s last mid price as provided by Bloomberg in platinum & palladium spot. All other data provided by Bloomberg. Actual market levels may differ. 1 Gold and Silver Market Watch Friday, January 30, 2015 Gold: 2-Year Close with Moving Averages ($/oz) Gold: 2-Month Candlesticks ($/oz) 1725 1325 1625 1300 1275 1525 1250 1425 1225 1325 1200 1225 1175 1125 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Spot Feb-14 100-Day Jun-14 200-Day 1150 8-Dec Oct-14 18-Dec 28-Dec 7-Jan 17-Jan 27-Jan 7-Jan 17-Jan 27-Jan 400-Day Silver: 2-Year Close with Moving Averages ($/oz) Silver: 2-Month Candlesticks ($/oz) 33.0 18.5 31.0 18.0 29.0 17.5 27.0 17.0 25.0 23.0 16.5 21.0 16.0 19.0 15.5 17.0 15.0 Feb-13 Jun-13 Spot Oct-13 Feb-14 100-Day Jun-14 200-Day 15.0 8-Dec Oct-14 18-Dec 28-Dec 400-Day Source: Bloomberg (may differ from market spot prices) Moving Averages 5 Day MA 10 Day MA 20 Day MA 30 Day MA 60 Day MA 100 Day MA 200 Day MA 400 Day MA Markets FX Majors Gold 1,279.78 1,285.93 1,258.06 1,233.30 1,214.14 1,214.27 1,252.76 1,276.64 Silver 17.636 17.866 17.302 16.807 16.537 16.815 18.346 19.623 Platinum 1,246 1,261 1,248 1,232 1,224 1,245 1,350 - Palladium 780.96 776.04 783.48 791.08 790.71 790.03 820.76 - CAD EUR GBP CHF AUD ZAR JPY as of: 1.2697 1.1303 1.5061 0.9174 0.7781 11.6454 117.4100 1/30/2015 15:51 CRB DJAIG CRUDE (fut) S&P 500 US 10 Yr US 30 Yr CDN 10 Yr as of: 218.84 100.84 47.53 2002.88 1.66 2.23 1.27 1/30/2015 15:51 This report has been prepared on behalf of Scotiabank and is not for the use of private individuals. 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