Gold & Silver Marketwatch (Daily)

Strategist Contact Information
Global Research
Russell Browne - [email protected]
Trading Contacts
Gold & Silver Marketwatch
Reuters MMCN or (212) 225-6200
Stephen Abbriano - [email protected]
Robert Lockwood - [email protected]
Daily Update
Friday, March 06, 2015
Market Commentary
1-Day Commodity Moves (%)
Gold was static overnight as it opened the day at
1196.50/1197.50. It rose slightly to a high of 1197.50/1198.50
before quickly retreating to a low of 1163.75/1164.75 as the dollar
advanced to an 11-½-year high following stronger-than-expected
U.S. payrolls data that drove U.S. 10-year treasury yields to a
10-week high. The markets anticipate that the U.S. Fed will most
likely raise interest rates earlier than expected; as gold closed the
day at 1164.50/1165.50 – the lowest since mid-November 2014.
Silver edged slightly lower overnight, opening the session at
16.08/16.13. It touched a high of 16.11/16.16 before falling below
$16 to a low of 15.76/15.81 – the lowest since January 5th. Silver
concluded the session at 15.81/15.86.
Gold
-2.5
Silver
-1.9
Platinum
-1.6
Palladium
-1.0
Oil WTI fut
-2.2
Copper fut
-1.6
EUR
-1.6
S&P 500
-1.5
CRB
-0.9
-3
-2
-1
0
5-Day Commodity Moves (%)
Gold
-3.7
Technical Commentary
Silver
-4.2
Gold has closed at a multi-month low of 1165 following a swift
decline from recent congestion around 1200. The focus now turns
to 1150 and the November 2014 low of 1132, as we note the
acceleration in bearish momentum indicators with a break of the
RSI into oversold territory below 30. The November decline drove
the RSI to a low of 20, hinting to ample space for further
downside. Weekly candles provide confirmation of this bearish
shift, given the formation of a bearish outside reversal candle.
Silver has closed at 15.84, its lowest level since early January,
extending a downtrend that appears to be gaining momentum
with an RSI that has softened to 33. A break of 16.00 is important,
as this level represents the 61.8% retracement level of the
December-January rally. A full retracement would bring silver back
to its December low of 14.42; however, we expect some near term
support at 15.50.
Platinum
-2.5
Notable Ranges & Technical Levels
Gold
Open
High
Low
Close / Last Mid*
London Pricing AM
London Pricing PM
Handy Harman (Base)
Gold / Silver Ratio
Open Interest
COMEX
CBOT
Total
1196.50/1197.50
1197.50/1198.50
1163.75/1164.75
1164.50/1165.50
1,196.50
1,175.75
1,175.75
73.53
Gold OI
406,719
24
406,743
Oil WTI fut
-0.3
Copper fut
-3.2
EUR
-3.0
S&P 500
-1.6
CRB
-1.8
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
1 Month Commodity Moves (%)
Gold -5.3
Silver
-4.9
Platinum -5.2
Palladium
4.3
Oil WTI fut
-4.0
Copper fut
The gold-silver ratio has ended the session unchanged,
maintaining a three-session run of consolidation just below 74.
The 50 day MA has crossed below the 100 day MA, typically a
medium term bearish signal and this week’s formation of a
shooting star doji lends itself to a bearish view. We await a break
of the recent range between 70 and 75.
Palladium
0.1
1.7
EUR
-4.0
S&P 500
0.7
CRB
-2.1
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
3/6/15 15:00 (last updated)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Source: Bloomberg
Technical
Levels etc.
Technical Levels,
Silver
16.08/16.13
16.11/16.16
15.76/15.81
15.81/15.86
15.99
NA
15.865
NA
Platinum
1,179.00
1,194.50
1,157.15
1,159.75
1,177.00
1,166.00
1,166.00
NA
Silver OI
163,898
4
163,902
Gold
Palladium
826.25
829.70
815.25
818.10
823.00
823.00
823.00
NA
Pivot
Primary Support (Buy)
Primary Resistance (Sell)
HBOP
LBOP
Bollinger Band Upper
Bollinger Band Mid
Bollinger Band Lower
Relative Strength 9 Day
Relative Strength 14 Day
1,180.49
1,151.37
1,197.08
1,242.79
1,105.66
1,241.53
1,210.65
1,179.76
19
28
Silver
16.017
15.655
16.260
16.865
15.050
17.295
16.564
15.833
27
34
Platinum
Palladium
1,171
1,147
1,184
1,221
1,109
1,218
1,184
1,151
30
34
821.57
811.78
827.88
843.98
795.68
839.05
797.74
756.43
61
60
Close/last mid refers to the spot closing floor price in gold and silver, and spot’s last mid
price as provided by Bloomberg in platinum & palladium spot.
All other data provided by Bloomberg. Actual market levels may differ.
1
Gold and Silver Market Watch
Friday, March 06, 2015
Gold: 2-Year Close with Moving Averages ($/oz)
Gold: 2-Month Candlesticks ($/oz)
1725
1325
1625
1300
1275
1525
1250
1425
1225
1325
1200
1225
1175
1125
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Spot
Mar-14
100-Day
Jul-14
200-Day
Nov-14
1150
12-Jan
22-Jan
1-Feb
11-Feb
21-Feb
3-Mar
11-Feb
21-Feb
3-Mar
400-Day
Silver: 2-Year Close with Moving Averages ($/oz)
Silver: 2-Month Candlesticks ($/oz)
18.5
33.0
31.0
18.0
29.0
17.5
27.0
25.0
17.0
23.0
16.5
21.0
19.0
16.0
17.0
15.0
Mar-13
Jul-13
Spot
Nov-13
Mar-14
100-Day
Jul-14
200-Day
Nov-14
15.5
12-Jan
22-Jan
1-Feb
400-Day
Source: Bloomberg (may differ from market spot prices)
Moving Averages
5 Day MA
10 Day MA
20 Day MA
30 Day MA
60 Day MA
100 Day MA
200 Day MA
400 Day MA
Markets
FX Majors
Gold
1,195.48
1,200.73
1,210.65
1,230.50
1,224.83
1,213.98
1,244.21
1,269.45
Silver
16.205
16.339
16.564
16.844
16.683
16.587
18.012
19.348
Platinum
1,179
1,176
1,184
1,203
1,214
1,220
1,318
-
Palladium
826.36
815.09
797.74
793.39
793.26
790.09
818.01
-
CAD
EUR
GBP
CHF
AUD
ZAR
JPY
as of:
1.2613
1.0858
1.5049
0.9848
0.7719
12.0471
120.6900
3/6/2015 15:00
CRB
DJAIG
CRUDE (fut)
S&P 500
US 10 Yr
US 30 Yr
CDN 10 Yr
as of:
220.14
100.77
49.62
2070.32
2.24
2.84
1.61
3/6/2015 15:00
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