WEEKLY

WEEKLY
shipping.fearnleys.no
Published by Fearnresearch
SALE AND PURCHASE
TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
Another slow week in the Vlcc market in the Meg. The March program
remains thin with only some 40 deals done and a very thin first decade
cargoes. Part of it may be a number of the ships previously taken on period/
storage have loaded or will load in the early part of march which eats into
the normal volumes. There has been an increasing uneasiness among owners
as the month really never really got off at the pace many had expected (or
hoped) and tonnage has steadily built up adding pressure on the rates. Rates
are therefore under pressure in the meg , both East and West and with a
Wafr/East remaining flat as well it looks softer in the region. We have
however seen tonnage , including Chinese ballasting toward Caribbean from
the East which has put a dampening effect on even that market which has
been a safe haven for quite some time. As expected last week activity in
West Africa did increase due to 2nd decade stems coming into play and so
did the rates.. With the strong Caribs/Up market (around usd 90,000 pdpr on
a round trip voyage) these vessel will be absorbed locally, therefore less
tonnage available for West Africa . We have even seen tonnage ballasting
from Gibraltar towards Caribs in order to seek employment locally. In Med/
Bsea rates also improved, it will however be interesting to see in the coming
week if this if will continue. We do see less weather delays including
Turkish passage, which could put a dampening effect on the rates again. The
Nsea and Baltic Aframax rates declined last week. A mild winter market
with basically no ice occurring in the strategic ports of Ust Luga and
Primorsk has not produced the rates that owners was hoping for. Recently a
none ice-class ship got fixed in this area and put further down ward pressure
on rates for the owners with ice-class tonnage trading this market. Regular
participants in the Med/Bsea Aframax market saw the list of available
tonnage grow longer last week and rates become weaker. The Turkish straits
is still producing moderate waiting time, and certain ports still facing delays
causing congestion, but still the cargo activity was too slow to gain any
momentum in the area. At time of writing rates seem to have bottomed out
at the mid WS 80´s without any immediate recovery in sight.
Product
Following a couple of quiet weeks in the CPP spot market, the East has
slowly begun picking up the pace whilst the West is now looking much
better with the exception of the LR2´s. EAST OF SUEZ The holidays in
the East is now over, and activity has come back to the LR1 and LR2
market after a few slow weeks. Throughout the week, rates dipped another
few points but are now slowly moving in the right direction again as more
and more ships are being plucked of the list. The list is not tight yet, but there
is a potential for firming rates provided activity prevails. The spread between
the two segments is still very slim, with only some 2.5 points in favor of the
LR1´s. MR´s trading SPORE/Japan have softened a touch during the week.
WEST OF SUEZ LR2´s trading Eastbound Naphtha ex Cont and Med have
not seen too many changes over the past week and rates have gone
sideways. Activity has been focused on the Med, with the Continent not
seeing much action. After a few weeks of quiet for the LR1´s in the West,
activity on the Continent/WAFR trade and a few cargoes ex BSea has
prompted the market and consequently rates have firmed since last week. Last
week the UMS arb Cont/US gave the MR market just what it needed to get
back onto the horse. The arb is still open and with help from rough weather
in the Atlantic rates have climbed yet another 10 points since last week. It
has been a good week for the Handies also, where we have seen both x-Med
and x-Cont regain traction after a slow period.
ACTIVITY LEVEL
VLCC
Stable
Suezmax
Firmer
Aframax
Mixed
P. E. of Suez
Firming
P. W. of Suez
Mixed
RATES
DIRTY (Spot WS)
MEG / West
MEG / Japan
MEG / Singapore
WAF / USG
WAF / USAC
Sidi Kerir / W Me
N. Afr / Euromed
UK / Cont
Caribs / USG
This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015
VLCC
VLCC
VLCC
260,000
130,000
135,000
80,000
80,000
70,000
30.0
56.0
57
67.5
87.5
90.0
85.0
92.5
180.0
33.0
58.0
59
67.5
75.0
77.5
95.0
100.0
100.0
30.0
55.0
55
65.0
75.0
77.5
85.0
92.5
100.0
39.0
70.0
70
80.0
100.0
125.0
200.0
127.0
180.0
CLEAN (Spot WS)
MEG / Japan
MEG / Japan
MEG / Japan
Singapore / Japan
Baltic T/A
UKC-Med / States
USG / UKC-Med
75,000
55,000
30,000
30,000
60,000
37,000
38,000
97.5
100.0
107.5
115.0
125.0
150.0
80.0
97.5
102.5
115.0
117.5
110.0
140.0
160.0
85.0
100.0
107.5
115.0
110.0
100.0
50.0
110.0
127.5
122.5
120.0
145.0
150.0
160.0
1 YEAR T/C (usd/day) (theoretical)
VLCC
(modern)
Suezmax
(modern)
Aframax
(modern)
LR2
105,000
LR1
80,000
MR
47,000
VLCCs fixed all areas last week:
VLCCs avail. in MEG next 30 days:
25. February 2015
Vessel
STI Heritage
STI Harmony
Gold Express
Silver Express
Sichem Onomichi
39
101
45,000.0 38,000.0 45,000.0
32,000.0 28,000.0 32,000.0
23,000.0 22,250.0 23,000.0
22,500.0 22,000.0 22,500.0
18,000.0 17,750.0 18,250.0
14,000.0 14,000.0 15,000.0
previous week:
33
last week:
106
Built Buyer
2008 Prime Marine
2007
2009 Maersk Tankers
2009
2008 Norwegian
Price Comm.
31,00 Ice class 1A
29,00 Ice class 1A
23,00
23,00
12,00
DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
The Handy / Supra market has not yet returned at full pace after the Chinese
holidays. Owners do expect the rates to pick up in both hemispheres with
the Chinese back in the market and simply refusing to rate forward
business.They would rather sit back and wait to fix their vsls spot. TA´s are
now paying ard Usd 5,700 while Fhauls are able to achieve somewhere ard
Usd 7,700. In The Pacific we see Indo rounds with China redelevery trading
ard Usd 4,5-5k while cargoes destined for India are paying ard 6k. The
NoPac rounds are being done at Usd 7k+Usd 90k GBB. The period market
has been quiet since last week with little emerging.
Panamax
Atlantic fairly flat, we see some more cargoes and the activity is somewhat
higher. However rates remain still very poor. Coal cargoes from Usg to east
med/Black sea covered at usd 11 pmt which equal to low 4000 per day.
China is back and we see more order and cargoes coming out. Pacific round
beeing fixed in the 4000 range, tic higher, but not much change from last
week. Indonesia/india rounds paying arnd 5000 per day. Limited fronthaul
activity reported but som grain from South America covered arnd 11500 +
150k range also marginally up from last week. Period deals not much done
on these levels, but decent kamsarmaxes fixed at 7500 for 6/8 months.
Despite some more activity in both hemispheres and especially pacific, it
has shown little impact on the rates sofar, but we do hope the increased
activity and china back to normal speed it will push the rates further up.
Capesize
Despite the Chines New year celebrations coming to an end, there is not
much enthusiasm around. Rates are pretty much unchanged in the Pacific as
well as in the Atlantic, and with record low levels (at least in modern times)
it is becoming easier for owners to make the decision to ballast into the
Atlantic from the pacific. Or to simply idle and wait.
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Capesize
Low
Panamax
Increasing
RATES
CAPESIZE (usd/day, usd/tonne)
TCT Cont/Far East (172´ dwt)
Tubarao / R.dam (Iron ore)
Richards Bay/R.dam
Handysize
Slow
This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015
13,300.00 13,500.00 12,500.00 18,700.00
16,000.00
4.00
4.00 16,000.00
4.12
4.00
3.90
5.00
PANAMAX (usd/day, usd/tonne)
Transatlantic RV
TCT Cont / F. East
TCT F. East / Cont
TCT F. East RV
Murmansk b.13-ARA 15/25,000 sc
Murmansk b.13-L.pool 15/25,000 sc
4,350.00
8,850.00
230.00
4,200.00
4.60
5.20
3,750.00
8,500.00
225.00
4,000.00
4.75
5.35
3,000.00 6,900.00
8,000.00 12,400.00
100.00
575.00
2,700.00 5,500.00
4.40
5.45
4.95
6.00
HANDYSIZE (usd/day)
Atlantic RV
Pacific RV
TCT Cont / F. East
5,700.00
4,150.00
7,800.00
5,200.00
4,000.00
7,200.00
5,200.00 8,530.00
4,000.00 9,000.00
7,200.00 11,100.00
1 YEAR T/C (usd/day)
Capesize
Capesize
Panamax
Handysize
Baltic Dry Index (BDI):
180,000 dwt
170,000 dwt
75,000 dwt
53,000 dwt
9,600.00 10,500.00 9,600.00 13,000.00
8,900.00 9,800.00 8,900.00 12,000.00
7,300.00 7,250.00 7,100.00 7,500.00
7,500.00 7,500.00 7,500.00 9,000.00
This Week: 524
Last week: 509
SALE AND PURCHASE
Vessel
C Prosperity
Flora Island
Copper Queen
Valopoula
45,000.0
32,000.0
23,000.0
22,500.0
18,250.0
14,250.0
Size
73 956
73 919
47 410
47 401
13 104
Size
175 700
81 305
46 762
Built Buyer
2011 Undisclosed
2012 Alpha Tankers
2001 Ho Feng
Shipping
45 578 2000 Undisclosed
Price Comm.
30,00
18,40
7,30
6,80 SS/DD due
05.15 - Sub
inspection
GAS
CHARTERING
The Indians are still putting new cargoes for March loading on the market.
The number of vessels available is limited and the rates obtained showing
above USD 4.0 mill (lumpsum), which is more than the double of what has
concluded earlier this year. A few trader relets has been shown in the
market for mid-March loading in the MEG. The total number of vessels
Fearnleys Weekly Report
25. February 2015
available in the spot market in March is moving south as a substantial
number of vessels need to ballast the long way from Far East to US Gulf.
The Baltic index moved quickly upwards above the 100-dollar-mark last
week and seems to have stabilized at such levels, providing returns in the
high USD 80,000´s per day. We see only small downward corrections in the
near-term future. The western market is also strong. One question though is
talks about cargo cancelations in the US Gulf, although none materialized so
far. With a steady flow of cargoes from the Nederland terminal, we do not
expect less demand for ships. The LGC market in the West is also strong
where owners asking time charter rates at similar or even higher levels than
what is the case for the larger VLGCs.
ACTIVITY LEVEL
COASTER
Increasing
15-23,000 cbm
Stable
RATES
SPOT MARKET (usd/month)*
82.000 cbm / FR
57.000 cbm / FR
35.600 cbm / FR
20.000 cbm / SR
10.000 cbm ETH
6.500 cbm / SR
COASTER Europe
COASTER Asia
* Excl. waiting time, if any
82,000 cbm
Stable
This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015
2,690,000 2,680,000 1,430,000 2,690,000
1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 1,700,000
1,050,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,050,000
975,000
950,000
950,000
975,000
520,000
540,000
520,000
560,000
440,000
440,000
435,000
440,000
160,000
165,000
135,000
165,000
140,000
140,000
135,000
140,000
Propane
316.50
450.00
309.99
325.00
LNG
SPOT MARKET (usd/day)
East of Suez 155-165´cbm
West of Suez 155-165´cbm
1 yr TC 155-165´cbm
Butane
297.50
480.00
321.63
340.00
ISO
331.35
This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015
42,500
46,000
49,000
47,000
53,500
37,400
42,500
46,000
37,400
65,000
70,000
61,500
SALE AND PURCHASE
Built
Buyers
Price Misc
DEMOLITION
Vessels sold for demolition
VLCC/VLOO
Year to date 2015:
Year to date 2014:
2
2014 total:
9
SUEZMAX
CAPE/OBO
0
1
2
9
SOLD FOR DEMOLITION
Vessel name
MV Myron N
MV Bulk Cajun
MV Zahranos
MT Tradewind
REEF Tropical Mist
NEWBUILDING
GENERAL COMMENT
Low activity this week as expected. Now, as Chinese new year is coming to
an end, it will be interesting to see whether and to what extent prices will
remain under a certain pressure.
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Tankers
Slow
Dry Bulkers
Slow
Average Far Eastern Prices
PRICES (mill usd)
VLCC
300´dwt
Suezmax
150´dwt
Aframax
110´dwt
Product
50´dwt
Capesize
180´dwt
Panamax
82´dwt
Handymax
64´dwt
LNGC
160´cbm DFDE
LNGC
170´cbm DFDE
Others
Slow
This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015
97.0
97.0
97.0
97.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
53.0
53.0
53.0
53.5
36.5
37.0
36.5
37.0
53.0
53.5
53.0
54.0
29.0
29.0
29.0
29.5
27.0
27.0
27.0
27.5
198.0
198.0
198.0
200.0
208.0
208.0
208.0
208.0
NEWBUILDING CONTRACTS
LPG/FOB prices (usd/tonne)
FOB North Sea / ANSI
Saudi Arabia / CP
MT Belvieu (US Gulf)
Sonatrach : Bethioua
Vessel
Cbm Type
No reportable sales this week
Published by Fearnresearch
Size
Ldt Built Buyer
70 424 10 672 1990 Indian
66 916 11 462 1984 Pakistani
40 478 7 912 1985 Indian
12 752 3 628 1986 Indian
11 998 5 500 1986 Indian
FEARNLEYS AS
P.O BOX 1158 SENTRUM
0107 OSLO
PHONE: + 47 22 93 60 00
fearnleys.no
Type
LNG
BC
BC
No
Size Yard
1 174000 cbm DSME
2 82000 dwt Imabari
2
37300 dwt Onomichi
Buyer
Teekay MLP
Wisdom Marine
Wisdom Marine
Del Price Comm.
4q18
4q201
7
2018
MARKET BRIEF
Rate of exchange
JPY/USD
KRW/USD
NOK/USD
USD/EUR
Interest rate
LIBOR USD 6 mnths
NIBOR NOK 6 mnths
Commodity prices
Brent spot (USD)
Bunker prices
Singapore
380 CST
180 CST
Gasoil
Rotterdam
380 LSFO
380 HSFO
180 CST
Diesel
This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015
118.96
119.20
116.30
119.79
1,102.00 1,113.75 1,082.19 1,113.75
7.60
7.52
7.52
7.77
1.13
1.14
1.13
1.18
0.39
1.28
0.38
1.32
0.36
1.16
0.39
1.32
59.37
61.15
47.16
61.15
338.00
350.00
584.00
0.00
306.00
351.00
557.00
380.00
391.00
607.00
0.00
325.00
367.00
570.00
269.00
274.00
485.00
0.00
232.00
279.00
447.00
380.00
391.00
607.00
0.00
325.00
367.00
570.00
Price
391
417
385
420
340
FEARNRESEARCH
[email protected]
Telefax: 22 93 61 10
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[email protected]
Telefax: 22 93 62 50
FEARNSALE
[email protected]
Telefax: 22 93 61 50
FEARNTANK
[email protected]
Telefax: 22 93 62 48
FEARNGAS
[email protected]
Telefax: 22 93 61 30
ADMINISTRATION
Telefax: 22 93 61 20