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WEEKLY shipping.fearnleys.no Published by Fearnresearch VLCCs fixed all areas last week: VLCCs avail. in MEG next 30 days: TANKERS CHARTERING Crude The general activity in the Vlcc market remains rather slow. The Meg volumes for April still remain very sluggish and the first decade may end as low as we saw in March. The previous month however had a rather active third decade which is keeping some hope up among owners for a repeat. In the meantime rates remain under pressure whilst owners doing their best to hold on the conquered ground. Charterers remain patient while they steadily play their cards close to their chests. Tonnage is also building up, despite delays in the east which is weighing on the sentiment both in the Meg and also in West Africa. Activity expected to increase whilst the tug-of-war continues. In the Atlantic rates have softened as well, even in the Caribbean where ships open in the area are looking towards West Africa for employment. We have experienced a strange week for the Suezmaxes, particularly from West Africa. The week started on a slow note and rates quickly dropped down to ws82,5 basis td20. This brought several charterers to the market at the same time and with a somewhat tight tonnage list for laycan upto 10 April, rates quickly rebounded to w90 on td20. We expect the activity to slow down and with a more balanced position list for 2nd decade load dates in West Africa we expect rates to stabilize. In Med/Bsea area rates are still holding due to an active and firm Aframax market and in addition a steady and big demand for vessels going for eastern destinations both with fuel oil and crude. Aframaxes trading in the Nsea/Baltic experienced another week with rates moving sideways. Ice restrictions for all load ports in the Baltic were officially lifted on Monday 23rd March. Charterers immediate reactions they now would have a greater choice of tonnage to pick from, but despite this, rates have been maintained. Reason is because there is less available tonnage in the north, and a undersupply scenario seems to have emerged which might create an upward market potential. The Med and Bsea Afras have seen the effect of ships ballasting out of the area, leaving fewer ships that have returned back into fixing position. As cargo activity increased towards end month owners managed to push rates towards ws150 level. This was due to a shortage of tonnage for certain dates in play and replacements that have occurred due to bad weather and closed ports. At time of writing the tonnage list is still tight but going forward we expect the current pressure to ease and rates to come off. Product Not too many changes in the CPP spot market this week as both the West and East remains steady at firm levels. EAST OF SUEZ It has been a good few weeks now with steady rates and activity in the LR2 market where ws105 for MEG/JPN has been the conference rate. Now at least two ships have been put on subs at ws103.5, and even though this is only a slight reduction to the aforementioned conference it may also be a sign that the market is under pressure. For the LR1´s, the going rate the last weeks have remained solid this week as well and as opposed to the LR1 market there has not been any signs so far of any softening tendencies. Overall the MR market has kept its momentum, and rates remain firm. WEST OF SUEZ The LR2 market in the West have not seen too many changes over the past week, but now available tonnage is getting scarce and rates could see an increase over the next few days as at least one ship within the fixing window are considering the Dirty market instead possibly leaving the list even tighter. For the LR1´s we have not registered much change since last week, and rates are still firm. MR´s trading Cont/TA has had a week of ups and downs, but now the momentum seems to be in the owners favor and rates are heading up once more. The USG market has improved since last week, and on the this side of the weekend rates have jumped some 10 points on the back of increased activity. For the Handies the Baltic market has been stable, but is now looking softer. In the Mediterranean the market has lost out some 20 points week-on-week. ACTIVITY LEVEL VLCC Slow Suezmax Stable Aframax Firm P. E. of Suez Stable P. W. of Suez Mixed RATES DIRTY (Spot WS) MEG / West MEG / Japan MEG / Singapore WAF / USG WAF / USAC Sidi Kerir / W Me N. Afr / Euromed UK / Cont Caribs / USG This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015 VLCC VLCC VLCC 260,000 130,000 135,000 80,000 80,000 70,000 26.0 50.0 51 62.5 90.0 97.5 150.0 95.0 175.0 27.0 49.0 50 62.5 92.5 100.0 125.0 95.0 147.5 26.0 49.0 50 62.5 75.0 77.5 85.0 92.5 100.0 39.0 70.0 70 80.0 100.0 125.0 200.0 127.0 190.0 CLEAN (Spot WS) MEG / Japan MEG / Japan MEG / Japan Singapore / Japan Baltic T/A UKC-Med / States USG / UKC-Med 75,000 55,000 30,000 30,000 60,000 37,000 38,000 102.5 130.0 120.0 150.0 142.5 155.0 135.0 105.0 130.0 120.0 150.0 145.0 185.0 130.0 85.0 100.0 107.5 115.0 110.0 100.0 50.0 110.0 130.0 122.5 150.0 145.0 185.0 160.0 43,000.0 33,000.0 23,000.0 23,750.0 20,000.0 15,500.0 43,000.0 33,000.0 23,000.0 23,750.0 19,250.0 15,500.0 38,000.0 28,000.0 22,250.0 22,000.0 17,750.0 14,000.0 45,000.0 33,000.0 23,000.0 23,750.0 20,000.0 15,500.0 1 YEAR T/C (usd/day) (theoretical) VLCC (modern) Suezmax (modern) Aframax (modern) LR2 105,000 LR1 80,000 MR 47,000 25. March 2015 47 109 previous week: last week: 44 101 SALE AND PURCHASE Vessel Takasuzu Seaglory Eships Sama Trans Trader Size 279 989 47 149 45 663 8 801 Built Buyer 2000 New Shipping 2003 Middle Eastern 2005 Winson Oil 2005 European Price Comm. 26,50 SS/DD due 15,00 15,00 10,30 StSt DRY BULK CHARTERING Handy There has been more activity in both hemispheres this week. Especially the USG market has picked up with more cargoes for prompter dates entering the market. Some chrts has been covering their forward cgos on COA´s and it seems we have been at the bottom for now. The grain season is picking up in South America and giving suport to the increasing freight level. TA´s are now being fixed at ard Usd 7200 while trips from USG to Continent are being fixed in excess of Usd 10k while same trip to East Med are being fixed at ard Usd 12k. In the Pacific we also see increased activity with coal cgos direction India is paying up and the NoPac rv cgos are being fixed in the 6/7k area. Supported by the improved spot market the period market is gaining strength. Smax´s with good specs are being fixed in the high 8´s for short period whereas 1 year periods are being covered in the mid/upper 8´s as well. Panamax This week started with some more activity in Atlantic, few more coal and iron ore orders gave small hope to a generally flat and uninspired panamax market. However the rates remained flat from last week. Rates still hoovering around Usd 4000 for atlantic biz. With the upcoming European easter we expect Atlantic to slow down. We see the grain from ECSA paying still in the usd 12000 + 200k bb. The period activity remain slow and only a few medium periods 4 to 7 months delivery feast reported in the usd 7700-7750 range. Aussie/China rounds beeing fixed in the usd 4500 -5000 range, while the grains from Aussie to China paying usd 6500. China iron ore import for the first 2 months declined by 1.2 % compared with 2014. Continius oversupply of prompt tonnage keeping the rates under pressure. As for now only increased grain volumes can boost the rates on short term. Capesize Still no sign of light for the big ships, and as prompt units pile up in Far Eastern hubs it is getting hard to distinguish between temporary idling and "warm" layup. Although official average daily earnings stand at an already poor usd 4300 for 180000-tonners, actual figures for the trading capesize fleet are substantially lower when waiting time and unemployment are factored in. Coal trading is moderate but not in complete limbo, iron ore flows are below industry capacity but in line with predictions - the problem is and remains a grotesque oversupply of tonnage. Period activity is low and almost without exemption with an index-linked component to allow for potential foward upside, recently exemplified by 180000 dwt/built 2009 done for 12-15 months at BCI AVE4TC +5%. ACTIVITY LEVEL Capesize Moderate Panamax Slower RATES CAPESIZE (usd/day, usd/tonne) TCT Cont/Far East (172´ dwt) Tubarao / R.dam (Iron ore) Richards Bay/R.dam Handysize Stronger This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015 10,000.00 11,375.00 10,000.00 18,700.00 4.40 4.20 4.00 16,000.00 4.00 3.80 3.00 5.00 PANAMAX (usd/day, usd/tonne) Transatlantic RV TCT Cont / F. East TCT F. East / Cont TCT F. East RV Murmansk b.13-ARA 15/25,000 sc Murmansk b.13-L.pool 15/25,000 sc 4,100.00 9,850.00 380.00 5,000.00 4.70 5.25 4,200.00 9,750.00 450.00 5,400.00 4.60 5.15 3,000.00 6,900.00 8,000.00 12,400.00 100.00 575.00 2,700.00 6,000.00 4.40 5.45 4.95 6.00 HANDYSIZE (usd/day) Atlantic RV Pacific RV TCT Cont / F. East 7,200.00 6,200.00 9,400.00 6,990.00 5,700.00 9,600.00 8,530.00 9,000.00 11,100.00 1 YEAR T/C (usd/day) Capesize Capesize Panamax Handysize Baltic Dry Index (BDI): 180,000 dwt 170,000 dwt 75,000 dwt 53,000 dwt 9,000.00 9,000.00 9,000.00 13,000.00 8,000.00 8,000.00 8,000.00 12,000.00 7,250.00 7,250.00 7,000.00 7,500.00 8,600.00 8,600.00 9,000.00 This Week: 598 Last week: 571 Fearnleys Weekly Report 25. March 2015 Published by Fearnresearch SALE AND PURCHASE Vessel Abyo Four C.S. Rainbow Ramada Queen Africa Sun Hellenic Horizon Bay Ranger AEC Faith Ziemia Lodzka Size 172 639 55 725 46 412 45 208 44 809 43 125 37 700 26 264 NEWBUILDING Built Buyer 1999 Kardeniz 2006 Greek 2005 New Trade 1994 Greek 1995 Greek 1995 Undisclosed 2015 Greek 1992 Undisclosed Price 11,00 11,50 8,60 3,80 3,70 4,60 21,00 1,90 Comm. For conversion Bank deal SS/DD passed CHARTERING It has been an uneventful week in the VLGC market, the Indian charterers were the most visible when they sub-fixed a handful vessels to load towards the end of April. Spot rates have come under modest pressure in an environment where rather few available vessels seemingly outnumber prospective cargoes over the next few weeks. There were a few fixtures already signalling a benchmark level in the mid/low USD 90´s for April, but for now most players believe the setback is going to be modest and temporary. The most recent spot fixtures return some USD 80,000 per day which still a solid number taking the minimal idle time lately into account. A brief vessel count for April tells us we have a "normal" month ahead as far as VLGC availability is concerned, therefore we should not see too big changes in rates ahead provided crude prices remain reasonably stable. ACTIVITY LEVEL 15-23,000 cbm Firm RATES SPOT MARKET (usd/month)* 82.000 cbm / FR 57.000 cbm / FR 35.600 cbm / FR 20.000 cbm / SR 10.000 cbm ETH 6.500 cbm / SR COASTER Europe COASTER Asia * Excl. waiting time, if any LPG/FOB prices (usd/tonne) FOB North Sea / ANSI Saudi Arabia / CP MT Belvieu (US Gulf) Sonatrach : Bethioua 2,760,000 1,430,000 2,760,000 1,750,000 1,500,000 1,750,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 950,000 1,025,000 520,000 500,000 560,000 440,000 435,000 440,000 170,000 135,000 170,000 140,000 135,000 140,000 Propane 407.00 500.00 269.62 405.00 LNG SPOT MARKET (usd/day) East of Suez 155-165´cbm West of Suez 155-165´cbm 1 yr TC 155-165´cbm Butane 438.50 460.00 276.33 470.00 ISO 284.94 This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015 35,000 35,000 43,000 40,000 40,000 46,000 35,000 35,000 37,400 ACTIVITY LEVEL 65,000 70,000 61,500 Dry Bulkers Slow Average Far Eastern Prices PRICES (mill usd) VLCC 300´dwt Suezmax 150´dwt Aframax 110´dwt Product 50´dwt Capesize 180´dwt Panamax 82´dwt Handymax 64´dwt LNGC 160´cbm DFDE LNGC 170´cbm DFDE Others Slow This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015 97.0 97.0 97.0 97.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.5 36.0 36.0 36.0 37.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 54.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 29.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 27.5 198.0 198.0 198.0 200.0 208.0 208.0 208.0 PC MPP H-L No Size Yard 2 320000 dwt Hyundai 1 2 Buyer Del Price Comm. Pantheon Tankers 2016/ 17 50088 dwt Hyundai Vinashin Top Ships 2017 28000 dwt Shanghai SY Cosco 2018 40 MARKET BRIEF Rate of exchange JPY/USD KRW/USD NOK/USD USD/EUR Interest rate LIBOR USD 6 mnths NIBOR NOK 6 mnths Commodity prices Brent spot (USD) Bunker prices Singapore 380 CST 180 CST Gasoil Rotterdam 380 LSFO 380 HSFO 180 CST Diesel This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015 119.35 121.17 116.30 121.45 1,099.40 1,129.90 1,082.19 1,129.90 7.83 8.34 7.52 8.34 1.10 1.06 1.06 1.18 0.40 1.50 0.41 1.21 0.36 1.16 0.41 1.50 55.61 53.10 47.16 61.15 310.00 324.00 554.00 0.00 292.00 333.00 516.00 312.00 320.00 548.00 0.00 277.00 318.00 495.00 269.00 274.00 485.00 0.00 232.00 279.00 447.00 380.00 391.00 608.00 0.00 325.00 367.00 570.00 SALE AND PURCHASE Vessel Cbm Type No reportable sales this week Built Buyers Price Misc DEMOLITION Vessels sold for demolition VLCC/VLOO Year to date 2015: Year to date 2014: 4 2014 total: 9 SUEZMAX CAPE/OBO 0 1 4 9 SOLD FOR DEMOLITION Vessel name Size Ldt Built Buyer MV Aquahope 167 105 22 093 1997 Pakistani MV Anangel Solidarity 161 643 19 436 1993 Bangladeshi MV Silver Merchant 151 066 17 970 1995 Bangladeshi CONT Livorno Express 43 714 13 186 1991 Turkish MT Zaizoom 4 350 2 171 1979 Pakistani MT Green Line 3 389 1 050 1985 Pakistani MT Byar Ali 1 165 548 1981 Pakistani FEARNLEYS AS P.O BOX 1158 SENTRUM 0107 OSLO PHONE: + 47 22 93 60 00 fearnleys.no 208.0 NEWBUILDING CONTRACTS Type MT 82,000 cbm Slow This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015 2,425,000 1,750,000 1,050,000 1,025,000 500,000 440,000 170,000 140,000 Not much excitement out there. In spite of the current strong tanker market, only one VLCC order surfaced over the last week. Not surprisingly the bulker side remained quiet. Most yards offer slots for first half 2017. With prices under pressure, timing could be right for industrial shipping companies with specialized tonnage to consider renewals. Tankers Slow As-is Casablanca GAS COASTER Moderate GENERAL COMMENT Price 400 380 413 250 325 325 310 FEARNRESEARCH [email protected] Telefax: 22 93 61 10 FEARNBULK [email protected] Telefax: 22 93 62 50 FEARNSALE [email protected] Telefax: 22 93 61 50 FEARNTANK [email protected] Telefax: 22 93 62 48 FEARNGAS [email protected] Telefax: 22 93 61 30 ADMINISTRATION Telefax: 22 93 61 20