Market View Contents

12
Contents
Market View: European
equities continue to
outperform US equities
JP Morgan: Gets green light
for dividend increase and
buybacks



European equities opened higher this morning, following on from a stronger Asian session
overnight
Demand for Eurozone government bonds remains strong since the beginning of the ECB’s
QE programme, with most countries’ 10yr yields trading at all time lows; 10yr Germany is at
0.20%, Ireland at 0.69% and Italy at 1.12%
On the data front at 10.00, Eurozone Industrial Production for January is expected to increase
0.1% YoY (prior -0.2%)
At 12.30, US Retail Sales for February is expected to increase 0.3% MoM (vs. prior -0.8%),
which will be closely watched given the US consumer accounts for 70% of the economy
Aryzta – (N/C)
Previous Close
€71
IRISH PAPERS TODAY
Depreciating euro boosts
export and tourism sectors
(The Irish Times)
Permanent TSB to sell
shares and bonds to get
€525m
(The Irish Independent)
MARCH 2015
Market View

Aryzta: Origin reports strong
H1 earnings
TH
JP Morgan – (N/C)
Previous Close
$60.24
Lufthansa says cost-cutting
to continue as profits fall
(The Irish Times)
INTERNATIONAL
PAPERS TODAY
Deutsche and Santander fail
US stress test
(Financial Times)
Clock is ticking down on a
Greek solution
(Wall Street Journal)

Origin Enterprises, which is 68% owned by Aryzta, reported a
2.7% increase in Agri-Service revenues of revenues €531.6m for
the first 6 months of FY15

However, operating profit fell 2.9% to €10.4m compared to the
same 6 month period in FY14

H1 EPS was 5.8c however, management reconfirmed full year
FY15 EPS guidance of 60c per share
Comment: Management said Origin’s performance in H1 was satisfactory,
and its Agri-Services operating profit was in-line with last year, against a
more challenging backdrop for primary food producers. Earnings from JVs
and associates were strong given the highly competitive market place.
Aryzta holds a 68% majority stake in Origin, and is set to report H1/15 this
th
Monday 16 March. H1/15 consensus sales of €2.4bn, operating profit of
€236m and EPS of €1.687 are expected. We like Aryzta within the food
space, given its free cash flow generation ability, its global diversification
and trades at 15x FY15e earnings, which is a 33% discount to the wider
food sector.

The US Federal Reserve has given JP Morgan a green light on
its 2015 capital distribution plans

As part of the plans, JPM will increase the quarterly dividend to
$0.44 from $0.40, starting from Q2 2015

The group will also initiate $6.4bn in share buybacks, beginning
st
the 1 April 2015 and running to June 2016
Comment: This is more good news for our preferred name in US banking,
given that the Fed had vetoed some of the European bank’s US plans. We
continue to like JPM for its diversification within the banking sector, strong
cost management, and its exposure to the US market, which shields it
from the dollar strength to some extent. Its core US Commercial and
Community bank continues to grow, with loan origination up +18% and
deposits up +8% in the last quarter. The Investment Bank has maintained
its number 1 position in the market on fees earned, while its Asset
Management unit continued to grow its Assets Under Management (AUM).
The buybacks and dividends should provide further support to the share
price, which is up 10% since February. JPM trades at 1x P/BV a discount
to peers on 1.1x, while offering an attractive FY15 dividend yield for a US
company, at c. 3%.
Dollar surge poses policy
dilemma for Fed
(Financial Times)
www.cantorfitzgerald.ie
Equities
Research
Portfolio Management
Bonds
Regulatory Information
This material is approved for distribution in Ireland by Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd. Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd (“CFIL”) is regulated by the Central Bank of
Ireland. Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd is a member firm of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange.
Where CFIL wishes to make this and other Cantor Fitzgerald research available to Retail clients, such information is provided without liability and in
accordance with our terms and conditions that are available on the CFIL website.
6th JUNE 2012
Buy
Previous
Close:
€39.84
Price
€49.00of the
No report is intended to and does not constitute a personal recommendations or investment
advice
nor does
it provide the sole
basisTarget:
for any evaluation
securities that may be the subject matter of the report. Specifically, the information contained in this report should not be taken as an offer or solicitation of
investment advice, or to encourage the purchased or sale of any particular security. Not all recommendations are necessarily suitable for all investors and
CFIL recommend that specific advice should always be sought prior to investment, based on the particular circumstances of the investor either from your CFIL
investment adviser or another investment adviser.
CFIL takes all responsibility to ensure that reasonable efforts are made to present accurate information but CFIL gives no warranty or guarantee as to, and do
not accept responsibility for, the correctness, completeness, timeliness or accuracy of the information provided or its transmission. This is entirely at the risk of
the recipient of the report. Nor shall CFIL, its subsidiaries, affiliates or parent company or any of their employees, directors or agents, be liable to for any
losses, damages, costs, claims, demands or expenses of any kind whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, suffered or incurred in consequence of any use of,
or reliance upon, the information. Any person acting on the information contained in this report does so entirely at his or her own risk
All estimates, views and opinions included in this research note constitute CANTOR IRELAND’s judgment as of the date of the note but may be subject to
change without notice. Changes to assumptions may have a material impact on any recommendations made herein.
Unless specifically indicated to the contrary this research note has not been disclosed to the covered issuer(s) in advance of publication.
Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The value of your investment may go down as well as up. Investments denominated in foreign
currencies are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates, which may have an adverse affect on the value of the investments, sale proceeds, and on dividend or
interest income. The income you get from your investment may go down as well as up. Figures quoted are estimates only; they are not a reliable guide to the
future performance of this investment.
Conflicts of Interest & Share Ownership Policy
It is noted that research analysts' compensation is impacted upon by overall firm profitability and accordingly may be affected to some extent by revenues
arising other CANTOR IRELAND business units including Fund Management and Stock broking. Revenues in these business units may derive in part from the
recommendations or views in this report. Notwithstanding, CANTOR IRELAND is satisfied that the objectivity of views and recommendations contained in this
note has not been compromised. Nonetheless CANTOR IRELAND is satisfied that the impartiality of research, views and recommendations remains assured.
Our conflicts of interest management policy is available at the following link;
http://www.cantorfitzgerald.ie/regulation_mifld.shtml
Analyst Certification
Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research note, in whole or in part, certifies that: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or
her personal views about those securities or issuers; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research note.
US distribution
This research note is being distributed by (CF Ireland / CF Europe / CF US / CF Canada / CF Hong Kong) in the United States and is intended for distribution
in the United States solely to “major U.S. institutional investors” (as such term is defined in Rule15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and
applicable interpretations relating thereto) and is not intended for the use of any person or entity that is not a major institutional investor. This material is
intended solely for institutional investors and investors who Cantor reasonably believes are institutional investors. It is prohibited for distribution to noninstitutional clients including retail clients, private clients and individual investors. Major Institutional Investors receiving this research note should effect
transactions in securities discussed in this research note through Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. This research note has been prepared in whole or in part by
research analysts employed by non-US affiliates of Cantor Fitzgerald & Co that are not registered as broker-dealers in the United States. These non-US
research analysts are not registered as associated persons of Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. and are not licensed or qualified as research analysts with FINRA or
any other US regulatory authority and, accordingly, may not be subject (among other things) to FINRA’s restrictions regarding communications by a research
analyst with a subject company, public appearances by research analysts, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
UK distribution
This research note is approved for distribution in the United Kingdom by Cantor Fitzgerald Europe (“CFE”). CFE is authorised and regulated by the Financial
Conduct Authority (“FCA”). While we believe this information and the materials upon which this information was based is accurate, except for any obligations
under the rules of the FCA, we do not guarantee its accuracy. This material is only intended for use by eligible counterparties or professional clients who fall
within articles 19 or 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and not the general investing public. None of the
investments or investment services mentioned or described herein are available to other persons in the U.K and in particular are not available to "retail clients”
as defined by the rules of the FCA.
Other important disclosures
Prices quoted in this research note, unless otherwise indicated, are as of close on the previous trading day.
The distribution of this research note in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this specialist sales market
commentary publication comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. By accepting this research note you agree to be bound by
the foregoing instructions.
Sources: CANTOR IRELAND Research, Bloomberg
Dublin: 75 St. Stephen’s Green, Dublin 2, Ireland. Tel: +353 1 633 3800. Fax : +353 1 633 3856/+353 1 633 3857
CORK: Dolmen House, 45 South Mall, Cork. Tel: +353 21 422 2122.
LIMERICK: Theatre Court, Lower Mallow Street, Limerick. Tel: +353 61 436500.
Email: [email protected] web: www.cantorfitzgerald.ie
Equities
Research
Portfolio Management
Bonds