The Week at a Glance

Transcription

April 10th, 2015
THE WEEK IN NUMBERS
(April 6th – April 10th)
Private Wealth Management
Research Services
Change Week
% Change
Week
Dow Jones Industrial
18,038.50
275.26
1.55%
1.21%
11.55%
15.8
S&P 500
2,099.84
32.88
1.59%
1.99%
14.55%
18.5
Nasdaq Composite
4,992.70
105.77
2.16%
5.42%
23.15%
29.4
15,389.09
362.47
2.41%
5.17%
7.56%
20.1
3,816.76
101.49
2.73%
21.30%
21.06%
22.7
FTSE 100 (UK)
7,089.77
256.31
3.75%
7.98%
6.74%
24.3
DAX (Germany)
12,374.73
407.34
3.40%
26.20%
30.89%
20.6
Nikkei 225 (Japan)
19,907.63
472.55
2.43%
14.08%
39.21%
22.5
Hang Seng
27,272.39
1,996.75
7.90%
15.54%
17.62%
11.5
MSCI World
1,771.86
21.60
1.23%
3.64%
6.99%
18.4
MSCI EAFE
1,895.75
22.88
1.22%
6.81%
-1.25%
17.8
Last price
Change Week
% Change
Week
S&P TSX Consumer Discretionary
2,027
25.84
1.29%
7.78%
30.79%
25.8
S&P TSX Consumer Staples
4,004
37.66
0.95%
6.33%
47.90%
33.0
S&P TSX Energy
2,763
75.97
2.83%
2.72%
-14.71%
22.7
S&P TSX Financials
2,325
51.85
2.28%
1.35%
9.92%
13.2
S&P TSX Health Care
3,054
128.63
4.40%
50.76%
89.46%
80.3
S&P TSX Industrials
2,472
43.49
1.79%
2.49%
23.10%
24.0
S&P TSX Info Tech.
224
12.46
5.89%
16.01%
49.44%
37.9
S&P TSX Materials
2,121
45.61
2.20%
7.22%
-5.78%
46.8
S&P TSX Telecom Services
1,295
22.68
1.78%
1.55%
10.16%
16.7
S&P TSX Utilities
2,041
16.93
0.84%
3.98%
6.27%
35.1
COMMODITIES
Last price
Change Week
% Change
Week
Oil-WTI futures (US$/Barrels)
Natural gas futures (US$/mcf)
Gold Spot (US$/OZ)
CRB Index
$51.25
$2.54
$1,206.01
217.19
2.11
-0.17
3.14
1.10
4.29%
-6.30%
0.26%
0.51%
Curr. Net
Change
-0.0070
-0.0374
-0.0274
-0.0001
% Change
Week
-0.87%
-3.41%
-1.84%
-1.04%
Contact
your
Investment S&P/TSX Composite
Advisor for more information
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50
regarding this document.
S&P TSX SECTORS
CURRENCIES in US$
Cdn$
Euro
Pound
Yen
Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research
Last price
0.7940
1.0595
1.4646
0.0083
% Change %Change 1
YTD
Year
Trailing
P/E
Last price
INDEX
% Change %Change 1
YTD
Year
% Change %Change 1
YTD
Year
-3.79%
-12.01%
1.79%
-5.55%
-50.44%
-45.39%
-8.56%
-29.98%
% Change %Change 1
YTD
Year
-7.73%
-13.17%
-12.42%
-23.70%
-5.98%
-12.74%
-0.44%
-15.54%
Trailing
P/E
NBF
2015E
$53.25
$2.80
$1,250.00
NA
NBF 4Q
2015E
0.79
1.08
1.50
0.008
Approximate time: 11:30 am
For NBF Disclosures, please visit URL: http://www.nbcn.ca/contactus/disclosures.html
THE WEEK IN NUMBERS
FIXED INCOME
NUMBERS
CANADIAN YIELD CURVE
Last yield
0.75%
0.58%
0.51%
0.76%
1.34%
2.00%
CDA Overnight
3 Month T-Bill
2 Yr Canada Government
CANADIAN BOND - TOTAL
RETURN
DEX Universe Bond Index
DEX Short Term Bond Index
DEX Mid Term Bond Index
DEX Long Term Bond Index
Change Week Change YTD
in bps
in bps
0.0
-25
0.4
-33
1.3
-51
2.8
-58
2.4
-45
4.4
-33
Change Week
US YIELD CURVE
Last yield
0.25%
0.02%
0.54%
1.37%
1.92%
2.55%
U.S. FED Funds
3 Month T-Bill
2 Yr US Bonds
5 Yr US Bonds
10 Yr US Bonds
30 Yr US Bonds
-0.39%
-0.04%
-0.23%
-0.95%
in bps
in bps
0.0
0
1.0
-2
6.4
-12
12.0
-28
8.2
-25
6.9
-20
Change One
Year in bps
-25
-33
-56
-95
-113
-99
Change
Y-T-D
4.05%
1.92%
4.36%
6.73%
Change One
Year in bps
0
-1
18
-25
-77
-102
CURRENT YIELD CURVE
4.50%
4.00%
3.50%
yield
3.00%
U.S
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
CANADA
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Term
CANADIAN 5YR SPREADS
CAD Housing Trust AAA
Province Quebec
Province Ontario
Canada Corp BBB
Canada Corp Bank AA
CDN & US 10 YR SPREADS
Province Quebec
Province Ontario
Canada Corp BBB
US Finance AA
US Corp BBB
Sources: Bloomberg & PC Bonds
Last spread in
basis points (bp)
32
39
51
147
90
Last spread in
basis points (bp)
66
75
179
77
163
in bps
in bps
-0.6
-1.4
0.4
0.2
0.8
-1
-9
-6
2
0
in bps
in bps
0.1
0.3
-0.4
0.2
-3.1
-23
-16
-3
0
-4
Change One
Year in bps
0
1
-2
33
14
Change One
Year in bps
-25
-10
6
4
18
NBF Economic
«
& Strategy
Group
WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH - WEEK IN REVIEW
CANADA – Employment jumped 28.7K in March according to the Labour Force Survey, easily
topping consensus which was looking for no change. The impact of the job gains was offset,
however, by a one-tick increase in the participation rate to 65.9%, leaving the jobless rate
unchanged at 6.8%. The increase in March employment was due to government (+26.5K) and the
private sector (+19.3K) which more than offset declines in self-employment (-17K). But the job
gains were entirely part-time (+56.8K), which offset declines in full-time positions (-28.2K). Hours
worked fell 0.3% as a result. The goods sector cut 16.5K jobs with declines in manufacturing,
agriculture, utilities and construction offsetting surprising gains in resources. Services sector
employment rose 45.3K with decent gains in health care, education, finance/insurance/real estate
among others, more than offsetting declines in public administration.
All told, the employment report was much better than consensus expectations. Unexpected
resilience in energy-rich provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan complemented expected gains
in Central Canada. That said, not all is rosy. All of the job gains in March were part-time. The
decline in employment in cyclical sectors like manufacturing and construction is also disappointing.
Moreover, job creation was tilted towards government, with the private sector not making up for the
prior month’s loss. Hours worked grew just 0.3% annualized in Q1, the lowest in a year. That’s
consistent with a sharp moderation in GDP growth in the quarter.
Housing starts jumped 25.4% to 189.7K in March (from a downwardly revised 151.2K in the prior
month). That was well above the 175K expected by consensus. The increase in starts was due to
gains in urban areas (+28.1%) which dwarfed the 3.5% drop in rural areas. The increase in urban
starts was driven by multis (+48.2%), which more than offset declines for single family homes
(-3.4%). On a regional basis in urban areas, there were gains in Ontario (+49.3%), BC (+40.3%),
Quebec (+15.8%) and even the Prairies (+12.9%) which offset declines in Atlantic Canada (12.6%)
Building permits fell 0.9% in dollar terms in February, as a 5.4% decrease in the value of nonresidential permits dwarfed the 1.5% increase for the residential sector. In real terms, residential
permits rose 2.7% due to a 9.4% jump for multis, which more than offset the 6.6% decrease for
singles, the latter falling to 1-year low.
The Spring edition of the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey (conducted between
February 17th and March 12th) showed that the business outlook weakened significantly since the
winter. While firms reported an improvement in sales growth over the past 12 months, they were
less optimistic about sales over the next year, the corresponding balance of opinion sinking to just
4, the lowest since 2012. Intentions to invest in machinery and equipment remained positive, but
the related balance of opinion dropped to 4, the lowest since 2009. Capacity pressures rose slightly
from the Winter survey, with 43% of respondents stating either some or significant difficulty in
meeting an unexpected increase in demand. But the proportion of respondents facing labour
shortages fell to 21% (from 22% in the last survey), and that’s reflected in hiring intentions which
were much weaker than in the winter, with the related balance of opinion falling to 20, the lowest
since 2009. Inflation expectations remained low, with roughly two-thirds of firms expecting inflation
to be in the bottom half of the BoC’s 1-3% target range.
The Bank of Canada's Senior Loan Officer's survey for Q1 (conducted between March 9th and
13th) showed lending conditions tightening from the prior quarter, with the corresponding index
moving to 6.7 i.e. the first positive (i.e. tightening conditions) since 2009Q3. With price conditions
remaining unchanged, the overall tightening was entirely due to non-price conditions for corporate
and commercial borrowers, particularly in the oil and gas sector. The survey reported that lending
conditions remained “highly accommodative” for other sectors.
Overall, while the Spring survey showed the lowest balance of opinion with regards to hiring and
investment since the last recession, most of the weakness is due to the energy patch. In fact,
outside of the energy patch, firms are reportedly benefitting from improving U.S. demand and the
more competitive Canadian dollar. The BoC says that investment intentions increased and are
more widespread in Central Canada and in the services sector.
NBF Economic
«
& Strategy
Group
UNITED STATES –
The non-manufacturing ISM index fell to 56.5 in March, from an
unrevised 56.9 in the prior month. The business activity index fell again to reach 57.5, a
multimonth low. However, both employment and new orders subindices rose in the month. More
importantly, all of the major sub-indices remained well in expansion territory, i.e. above 50.
Weekly jobless claims data for the week of April 4th showed initial claims rising to 281K (from
267K in the prior week). The more reliable 4-week moving average fell to 282K. Continuing
claims for the prior week fell 23K to 2.3 million. The rate of layoffs, based on the 4-week moving
average initial claims, is the lowest since mid-2000. That suggests the labour market remains in
good shape despite the soft non farm payrolls for March. Hiring potential is also good considering
the 5.1 million job openings according to the latest JOLTS report and the expected rebound for
GDP growth in Q2. All told, non farm payrolls could return to the 200K+ territory sooner rather
than later.
The Fed minutes of last March’s meeting were released this week. The downgrades to
participants’ forecasts for real GDP were mostly because of the stronger dollar. But the Fed
remains confident the economy will grow above potential both this year and next. Participants
saw broad-based improvements in the labour market, although many thought that some degree
of slack remained, as evidenced by the declining participation rate, the wide measure of the
jobless rate, and tepid wage growth. However, a few participants noted that the absence of wage
growth may not be a useful yardstick for evaluating slack because of uncertainty regarding trend
productivity and long lags between declining jobless rates and the wage response. They added
that there may also be compositional changes that could be masking underlying wage pressures.
The decision to remove the word “patient” from the forward guidance was supported by the large
majority of the participants. Yet there was no consensus about the timing of the rate liftoff.
“Several” participants thought that normalization should begin in June, while others, concerned
about the negative impact of the strong dollar and low energy prices on inflation, preferred
delaying rate hikes to later this year. A couple even thought that rate hikes should be delayed to
2016. Participants thought that it would be helpful to convey to the public a “data-dependent
approach” to monetary policy. They thought that normalization could be initiated prior to seeing
increases in core or wage inflation. For example, a further improvement in the labour market, a
stabilization of energy prices, or a leveling of the dollar would make the FOMC more confident
that the 2% inflation target would be achieved.
World – The Bank of Japan left monetary policy
unchanged at its meeting. With an 8 to 1 majority vote, the
central bank decided to continue purchasing Japanese
government bonds at a pace of around ¥ 80 trillion/year.
IN THE NEWS
-
U.S. and Canadian News
th
Monday April 6 , 2015
-
-
-
-
Expansion at U.S. Service Industries Reassuring
Sign for Economy
The 56.5 reading in the Institute for Supply
Management’s non-manufacturing index was in line with
last year’s average and little changed from the prior
month’s 56.9. A gauge above 50 shows growth and the
March reading matched the median estimate of
economists.
Dudley Says Pace of Rate Increases Is Likely to Be
‘Shallow’
Pending home sales in February reached their highest
level since June 2013. The National Association of
Realtors said its pending-home-sales index rose 3.1% to
106.9 after a downward revision to January's numbers.
The index is up 12% from February 2012 levels.
Bristol to Buy Stake in UniQure
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. agreed to acquire a stake in
UniQure NV, maker of the first $1 million drug, in a bet
on the promise of gene therapy.
Ontario Teachers’ exploring sale or IPO of Alliance
Laundry
Canada’s third-largest pension plan expects to seek
about $250-million in a U.S. IPO, and values the
business at about $2-billion.
th
Wednesday April 8 , 2015
-
-
-
-
th
-
th
-
-
-
-
Job Openings in U.S. at 14-Year High Signal
Companies Upbeat
The number of positions waiting to be filled climbed by
168,000 to 5.13 million, the most since January 2001.
Dismissals dropped to the lowest level since November
2013.
Consumer Credit in U.S. Increases on Jump in NonRevolving Debt
The $15.5 billion advance in household credit followed a
$10.8 billion gain in January that was smaller than
initially reported. A surge in non-revolving loans such as
those for automobile purchases and education more
than offset the biggest drop in revolving credit since
November 2010.
Permira, CPPIB to Buy Informatica in Biggest LBO
of the Year
Private equity firm Permira and the Canada Pension
Plan Investment Board agreed to buy Informatica Corp.
in a $5.3 billion transaction, the largest leveraged buyout
this year.
Berkshire to Acquire $560 Million Axalta Stake From
Carlyle
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. agreed to buy $560 million of
stock in Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. from affiliates of
Carlyle Group LP as Warren Buffett’s company expands
its bets on industrial companies.
FedEx Bids $4.8 Billion for TNT
FedEx Corp. agreed to buy Dutch parcel-delivery
company TNT Express NV for 4.4 billion euros.
Click on title to view the full story.
Low bar set for Fed rate hike, minutes show
The Federal Reserve may be willing to make its first interest
rate hike since the financial crisis as early as June,
according to minutes from the March meeting.
Oil slumps as inventories continue to build
U.S. Energy Information Administration said commercial
crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve, jumped by 10.9 million barrels to 482.4 million in
the week ended April 3, far exceeding the 3.2 million barrel
rise forecast.
Oliver confirms Tories' plan for balanced-budget
legislation
Finance Minister Joe Oliver’s speech to a Toronto business
audience confirmed the Conservative government’s plans to
bring in balanced budget legislation.
Mylan Offers to Buy Drugmaker Perrigo for $28.9 Billion
Mylan NV offered to buy fellow drugmaker Perrigo Co. for
$28.9 billion, a deal that would create a powerhouse for
generic medicine.
Thursday April 9 , 2015
Tuesday April 7 , 2015
-
Toronto home prices surge 10% as sales activity heats
up
Average Toronto home prices jumped 10 per cent in March,
driven by a sharp rise in the price of detached homes to well
over $1-million in the city.
-
-
Jobless Claims in U.S. Over Past Month Dropped to
Lowest in Almost 15 Years
An average 282,250 workers a week applied for jobless
benefits in the month ended April 4, the fewest since June
2000. Another report showed consumer confidence rose last
week to an almost eight-year high.
Building permits fall in February as new home prices
rise
The value of Canadian permits issued in the month fell 0.9
percent to $6.11 billion, short of economists' forecasts for a
rebound of 5 percent.
Brookfield Asset Management buys energy assets in
Australia
Apache Corp. will exit Australia’s energy industry, selling its
assets there to a group of private equity funds managed by
Macquarie Capital Group Ltd. and Brookfield Asset
Management Inc. for $2.1 billion US.
th
Friday April 10 , 2015
-
-
GE to Exit Most Finance as $26.5 Billion of Real Estate
Sold
General Electric Co. plans to exit the bulk of its lending
business, including a $26.5 billion sale of most of its real
estate, as Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt refocuses
the company on its industrial roots.
Canada Posts Unexpected Jobs Gain in March
Employment rose by 28,700 following a loss of 1,000 in
February, while the March jobless rate remained at 6.8
percent. Economists projected the jobless rate would rise to
6.9 percent and that employment would be unchanged.
IN THE NEWS
-
International News
th
-
-
-
Greek Plans to Unlock Aid Need Lots of Work
The 15-page draft, which was discussed Sunday in
Brussels, requires more information and details and was
a long way from serving as the basis of a deal.
Cyprus to scrap last bailout capital controls
Cyprus will scrap the last of the capital controls imposed
in the country two years ago when it signed up for a 10
billion euro bailout, its president said Friday.
India service activity slows in March
The seasonally-adjusted Service Sector Business
Activity Index fell to 53.0 from 53.9 in February. The
reading marked the eleventh consecutive month of
expansion in activity.
-
th
-
th
-
-
-
-
IMF Urges Policies to Boost Demand as Global
Recovery Downshifts
The world economy’s growth potential won’t soon return
to levels seen before 2008 financial crisis as business
investment slumps, raising the urgency for officials to
find ways to stimulate demand.
Russia Rules Out QE, Vows Rate Cuts If Inflation
Risks Wane
The central bank will continue to reduce its benchmark
rate, now at 14 percent, if inflation risks continue to
abate, Nabiullina said at the annual meeting of the
Association of Russian Banks. The association, which
counts 80 percent of the country’s lenders as members,
had proposed a quantitative easing program to help the
economy.
India's central bank keeps key lending rate steady
Reserve Bank of India head, Raghuram Rajan, left the
bank's overnight lending rate at 7.5%. Nine out of 11
analysts had forecast that he wouldn't change rates.
Australia keeps interest rates steady at 2.25%
Australia's central bank kept interest rates on hold
Tuesday despite expectations for a cut, which pushes
back forecasts for the next downward move to May.
th
-
-
Shell Will Buy BG Group for $70 Billion in Cash,
Shares
Royal Dutch Shell Plc agreed to buy BG Group Plc for
about 47 billion pounds (US$70 billion), making Europe’s
largest oil company the pre-eminent player in global
natural gas and adding fields in Brazil.
German February manufacturing orders fall
In adjusted terms, industrial orders were down 0.9% in
February from the previous month, disappointing
expectations of a 1.5% increase. The ministry, however,
revised up significantly the previous month's data, now
saying that orders decreased by only 2.6%, compared
with a 3.9% dip originally reported.
Click on title to view the full story.
Bank of Japan maintains monetary easing policy
The Bank of Japan board stuck to its majority view that it is
still on track to achieve its price goal of 2% inflation at its
latest policy meeting, maintaining its key policy of buying
¥80 trillion (US$665 billion) of assets annually in an 8-1
vote.
Japan current-account surplus beats estimates
The surplus in the current account, the broadest measure of
Japan's trade with the rest of the world, stood at Y1.44
trillion in February before seasonal adjustment, the highest
since September 2011. That was bigger than a Y1.13 trillion
surplus forecast by economists and marked the eighth
consecutive month of black ink.
-
Varoufakis Says Greece Not Looking to Russia to Fix
Debt Crisis
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said his country
isn’t looking outside Europe to resolve its financial crisis,
adding that he’s confident of reaching an agreement with
European partners this month.
Greece pays IMF loan due in April
Greece has met the deadline for paying its loan to the
International Monetary Fund due in April, a senior finance
ministry official said as the country's cash reserves continue
to dry up.
th
-
-
U.K. Industrial Output Barely Rises as Oil and Gas
Declines
Total production gained 0.1 percent as energy output
declined 3.8 percent. An increase of 0.3 percent had been
forecast by economists. Manufacturing rose 0.4 percent
amid higher car output.
China March consumer inflation steady at 1.4%
China's consumer price index rose 1.4% in March from a
year earlier, the same as the increase in February. The rise
in the key inflation gauge matched the median 1.4% gain
forecast by economists.The CPI declined 0.5% in March
from February, when it rose 1.2% from the preceding month.
S&P/TSX WEEKLY PERFORMERS
S&P/TSX weekly best performers
16.58%
Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd (TRQ) 0
Black Diamond Group Ltd (BDI) 0
14.64%
Sierra Wireless Inc. (SW) 0
13.74%
Novagold Resources Inc (NG) 0
13.64%
Trican Well Service Ltd (TCW) 0
13.04%
Bankers Petroleum Ltd (BNK) 0
12.68%
Penn West Petroleum Ltd (PWT) 0
12.67%
Surge Energy Inc (SGY) 0
10.85%
Silver Standard Resources Inc (SSO) 0
10.63%
Canexus Corp (CUS) 0
10.20%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
12%
10%
14%
16%
18%
S&P/TSX weekly worst performers
Amaya Inc. (AYA)
-3.53%
0
Norbord Inc (NBD)
-3.71%
0
Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (BEP.un)
-3.97%
0
Interfor Corp. (IFP)
-4.08%
0
-5.35%
Trilogy Energy Corp (TET)
0
First Majestic Silver Corp (FR)
-6.96%
0
Corus Entertainment Inc (CJR.b)
-7.07%
0
0
-9.60%
Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp (LIF)
0
-13.07%
Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp (PRE)
-14%
0
-8.91%
Westjet Airlines Ltd (WJA)
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
The performance is calculated from the close of Friday’s previous week until Friday 11:30 a.m. of this week.
0%
NBF RATINGS & TARGET PRICE CHANGES
Company
Symbol
American Hotel Income Properties REIT LP
Current Rating
Previous Rating
Current
Target
Previous
Target
Closing
Price
HOT.UN
Restricted
Arianne Phosphate
DAN
Outperform
Outperform
C$1.65
C$1.95
C$0.69
Artis REIT
AX.un
Sector Perform
Outperform
C$16.00
C$16.75
C$14.88
Boardwalk REIT
BEI.UN
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$65.50
C$68.00
C$60.08
Cdn Apartment Properties REIT
CAR.UN
Outperform
Outperform
C$31.50
C$30.50
C$29.87
Conifex Timber Inc.
Corus Entertainment Inc.
C$10.69
Restricted
CFF
Outperform
Outperform
C$9.50
C$10.00
C$7.00
CJR.B
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$19.00
C$21.50
C$17.52
DeeThree Exploration Ltd.
DTX
Outperform
Outperform
C$8.50
C$7.50
C$6.48
Delphi Energy Corp.
DEE
Sector Perform
Outperform
C$1.75
C$1.75
C$1.62
DH Corp.
DH
Outperform
Restricted
C$44.00
Restricted
C$41.86
Dream Global REIT
DRG.UN
Outperform
Sector Perform
C$10.50
C$10.25
C$10.19
Dream Industrial REIT
DIR.UN
Outperform
Outperform
C$10.00
C$10.50
C$9.03
Dream Office REIT
D.un
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$28.25
C$29.00
C$27.42
Genworth MI Canada Inc.
MIC
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$37.00
C$35.00
C$31.30
Interfor Corp.
IFP
Outperform
Outperform
C$22.00
C$25.00
C$16.94
MST.UN
Outperform
Outperform
C$15.50
C$15.00
C$14.48
Milestone Apartments REIT
NuVista Energy
NVA
Restricted
NYX Gaming Group Ltd.
NYX
Outperform
Outperform
C$7.50
C$6.00
C$5.00
Pattern Energy Group Inc.
PEG
Outperform
Outperform
US$33.00
US$32.00
C$37.52
Outperform
C$5.50
C$5.25
C$5.22
Pure Industrial RET
C$8.07
Restricted
AAR.UN
Outperform
Pure Technologies Ltd.
PUR
Outperform
Seabridge Gold Inc.
SEA
Outperform
Restricted
C$14.50
C$0.00
C$7.96
Slate Office REIT
SOT.UN
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
C$8.25
C$8.50
C$8.00
Summit Industrial Income REIT
SMU.UN
Outperform
TCN
Outperform
Outperform
C$12.50
C$12.00
C$11.41
WestJet Airlines Ltd
WJA
Outperform
Outperform
C$37.00
C$38.00
C$27.10
Whitecap Resources Inc.
WCP
Outperform
Restricted
C$18.50
Restricted
C$15.07
Tricon Capital Group Inc.
C$8.30
C$10.25
C$6.15
C$6.50
NBF ACTION IDEAS
CALLIDUS CAPITAL CORP. (CBL) CLOSING PRICE: $17.27
$30.00
RATING: OUTPERFORM
TARGET PRICE:
COMPANY PROFILE
Callidus is a specialty asset-based lender, focused on Canadian (and select U.S.) companies whose perceived
credit risk is too high for the lending criteria of traditional lenders, and whose capital requirements are too small to
access high-yield markets. The company is ~60% owned by Catalyst Capital Group Inc.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
NBF reiterated its Outperform rating and added Callidus Capital to the NBF Action List. With the stock
trading at 9.6x 2015 EPS, NBF believes the market undervalues CBL’s exceptionally growth outlook while
vastly exaggerating credit risk. NBF believes patience will ultimately be rewarded and that the shares will re-rate,
particularly once the market better understands the business model, the growth outlook and particularly CBL’s
loss mitigation mechanisms.
NBF believes CBL’s superior access to capital (vs. peers) and expertise in lending to distressed medium-sized
enterprises will support solid growth on the back of lending opportunities in the United States, expanded product
offering (Callidus Lite), longer loan duration, higher average loan sizes, as well as portfolio acquisitions. NBF is
forecasting robust loan growth of 33% in 2015 and 36% in 2016, supported by (i) regulated financial institutions
looking to offload troubled loans to non-OSFI-regulated vehicles in order to improve capital efficiency (CBL does
not have the same regulatory constraints), (ii) a softer Canadian economy on the back of slumping oil prices, and
(iii) an underserved market for asset-based lending to distressed medium-sized enterprises.
CBL has more than adequate capacity to support this growth. The company has hired ahead of anticipated
growth and is among the best capitalized distressed asset-based lenders in the marketplace. In addition to equity
financing, CBL has access to revolving credit facilities with commitments from a major global financial institution,
two Canadian chartered banks and a Canadian life insurance company. These financial institutions stand ready to
increase their commitments, currently totalling US$262.5 million, to ~$800 million. CBL also has a willing lender in
the Catalyst Funds, committing a total of US$200 million to CBL to date. Notably funding costs are heading lower,
which is not yet reflected in NBF’s or the Street’s estimates.
CBL is already generating solid returns, with gross yields of ~20%, marginal funding costs of <4%, an efficiency
ratio of <15% and leverage of <2x, ROE is 18%+. NBF expects ROE will expand to 20%-22% and earnings
growth of 18%-20% for the next few years, which it believes merits more than a single-digit P/E multiple.
NBF believes concerns about the credit quality of the loan portfolio are overstated and do not appropriately reflect
the impact of the Catalyst Guarantee, or the rigorous underwriting and credit monitoring processes employed by
the company. Moreover, management has a long and successful track record of low realized losses. In addition,
for each and every CBL loan outstanding at this time, the collateral value exceeds the value of the loan after
giving effect to Catalyst’s loan loss guarantee. NBF thinks the street misinterpreted CBL’s Q4 results, and notes
that the magnitude of the negative impact on Q4 earnings was not due to deterioration in credit quality, but only
because the company set up a “collective allowance” in the quarter for the first time.
VALUATION
NBF’s $30.00 price target for CBL is based on a target P/E multiple (on its blended 2015/2016 EPS forecast) of
15.0x. This reflects not only the enviable loan growth outlook and high ROE, but also the company’s low credit
risk.
MANULIFE FINANCIAL CORP. (MFC) CLOSING PRICE: $22.14 RATING: OUTPERFORM TARGET PRICE:
$26.00
COMPANY PROFILE
Manulife is the largest Canadian Lifeco by market capitalization. The company’s products portfolio includes life
insurance, pensions, long-term care, mutual funds, annuities and group benefits. MFC's primary operations are in
Canada and the U.S. (following the 2003 acquisition of John Hancock for $11 billion). MFC also has a sizeable
presence in various Asian markets.
NBF reiterated its Outperform rating on Manulife Financial (MFC) and its $26.00 target price in its 1Q f2015
preview. MFC remains its top pick amongst the large-cap, Canadian financial institutions as it is more
geared to an accelerating U.S. recovery than any of its domestic banking or life insurance peers. MFC derives
half its earnings from its U.S. business. As, and if, the U.S. economic recovery regains its momentum from the
last half of f2014, NBF expects MFC’s earnings and valuation will reflect this in a greater degree than its peers. In
particular, NBF believes MFC’s focus on U.S. wealth management will underpin MFC’s outperformance.
NBF’s positive view on MFC is also based on
 Its continued preference of lifecos over the banks as they do not face rising credit costs like the banks,
and therefore thinks we may see less severe near term EPS adjustments in the life insurance sector than
in the banking sector.
 MFC appears to have realized actuarial reserve stability, given the results of its annual assumption review
in Q3 f2014.
 A greater contribution from the Standard Life acquisition (closed Feb. 2, 2015) than MFC currently guides
may also drive f2015 and f2016 consensus EPS higher. MFC is guiding for $0.03/share accretion in each
of the first three years following the acquisition and NBF believes the actual cash contribution will be
much greater.
 NBF believes that a new era has begun at MFC – one in which shareholders will see capital flow back to
them (a reversal from the financial crisis years) in the form of increasing dividends, common share
repurchases and accretive acquisitions. NBF forecasts share repurchases of Cdn$1 billion annually
commencing in early f2016 and extending into f2019.
 NBF thinks the DBS partnership announced earlier this week fits well with its thesis. DBS Bank Ltd.
selected MFC to be the exclusive provider of bancassurance solutions to DBS customers in Singapore,
Hong Kong, Indonesia, and China. The agreement will be effective on January 1, 2016 and will last for 15
years. Despite the high cost MFC paid (US$1.2 billion and a 10 percentage point reduction in its MCCSR
ratio), NBF views this transaction as strategically advantageous over the longer-term because the
partnership gives MFC broader access to an attractive target market – the middle class within the
aforementioned developed and emerging Asian economies. Because the transaction does not appear to
provide more significant, immediate accretion (core accretion by f2017), NBF does not expect this
transaction to be a major catalyst for MFC in the near-term.
MFC reports Q1 f2015 results on May 7th. NBF forecasts book value per share will rise $1.15 q/q to $17.57 and
EPS (excluding market impacts) of $0.43. It lowered its estimated IFRS EPS to $2.04 from $2.09 in f2015, to
$2.38 from $2.45 in f2016 and it introduced its f2017 estimate of $2.71.
VALUATION
NBF’s $26.00 target price implies a 12 month potential total return of ~20% and is 10.9x our NTM IFRS EPS oneyear from today, a 6% discount to peers. MFC currently trades at 10.8x our forecasted IFRS EPS over the next
twelve months (NTM). Meanwhile, NBF’s price target P/B multiple is 1.36x BVPS one year from today, versus a
current P/B multiple of 1.34x.
RICHELIEU HARDWARE LTD. (RCH) CLOSING PRICE: $63.98 RATING: OUTPERFORM TARGET PRICE:
$70.00
COMPANY PROFILE
Richelieu Hardware is a distributor, importer and manufacturer of speciality hardware and complementary
products in Canada and the United States. Distribution activities make up 95% of sales. Kitchen and bathroom
cabinet manufacturers are the largest customer. The remaining 5% of revenues stem from Canadian
manufacturing subsidiaries. Moreover, Richelieu also supplies a wide scope of hardware retailers.
NBF reiterated its Outperform rating on Richelieu Hardware and increased its target price to $70.00 (from
$65.00) following the release of solid Q1/15 results. The target price increase reflects a multiple expansion (from
20x 2016e EPS to 21x), which is warranted in NBF’s view given RCH’s outlook and implementation of an
established growth strategy by a proven management team supported by a clean balance sheet and a growing
network of strategically located distribution centres offering a large breadth of innovative products. NBF
continues to see RCH as a solid play on a renovation/housing recovery and as a core long-term holding.
RCH reported another solid quarter. Sales of $159.3 million (up 17.1% y/y, including internal growth of 12.7%)
were ahead of NBF’s $151.1 million estimate as double-digit growth was achieved in both the manufacturers and
retailers categories. EBITDA of $15.7 million and EPS (fd) of $0.51 were in line with NBF expectations as EBITDA
margin was slightly impacted by recent acquisitions and an evolving sales mix. Sales in Canada of $107.7 million
were up 9.4% y/y and its organic growth rate was up 8.2%, as strong gains were achieved in both the
manufacturers and retailers markets. U.S. sales increased 23.8% (12.2% internal growth) to US$42.8 million
driven by double-digit increases at manufacturers and retailers.
RCH’s performance in Canada has been encouraging lately with three consecutive quarters of solid internal
growth. Looking ahead, NBF expects continued positive contributions from market penetration initiatives and
more favourable market conditions. In the United States, NBF anticipates continued growth momentum driven by
Richelieu’s market penetration initiatives and innovative product offering. In addition, the remodeling environment
looks positive with the most recent reading (Q4/14) of the NAHB Remodeling Market Index (RMI) at a record high
of 60 (up from 57 sequentially) and clearly above the breakeven level of 50. Perhaps more importantly, RMI’s
future market conditions index climbed to 60 from 58, illustrating remodelers’ optimism.
NBF believes that RCH’s rock-solid balance sheet and expected free cash flow generation will support the
implementation of its proven growth strategy based on organic growth initiatives and acquisitions (mostly tuckins). In addition, a healthy financial position provides the flexibility for dividend payments (a 7.1% increase was
announced in January) and share repurchases. At the end of Q1/15, the balance sheet was still very healthy with
a net cash position of $10.3 million. This was down sequentially from $28.4 million due to an increase in inventory
in anticipation of the seasonally strong Q2 and to meet demand in the retailers market where RCH is reaping the
benefits of market penetration efforts. NBF expects RCH’s net cash position to increase sequentially in the
seasonally stronger Q2 and Q3 as inventory declines.
VALUATION
NBF’s $70.00 target (was $65.00) reflects an increased multiple of 21x (from 20x) on 2016 EPS estimates, which
is consistent with the company’s historical valuation (multiple expansion: three-year average forward multiple of
~18x, one-year average of ~20x and peaks at ~22x).
WESTJET AIRLINES LTD. (WJA) LAST PRICE: $27.10 RATING: OUTPERFORM
$37.00
TARGET PRICE:
COMPANY PROFILE
WestJet is Canada’s second largest scheduled airline and the low cost leader in the country. Through its WestJet
Vacations subsidiary, it is also a major tour operator to sun destinations.
NBF reiterated its Outperform rating on WestJet Airilnes (WJA) but trimmed its target price by $1.00 to
$37.00 to reflect a slightly more conservative view on RASM* trends in 2015. WJA’s stock price fell on
Monday after reporting disappointing traffic data. However, NBF remains positive on the stock based on the
view that WestJet will benefit from (1) materially lower fuel prices that more than offset f/x headwinds and
potential RASM weakness, (2) ongoing market share gains from the growth of Encore, and (3) revenue
improvements stemming from the maturation of WestJet’s Plus product and the introduction of first bag fees.
WestJet reported that its March load factor (% of seats filled) was 81.3%, down from 84.0% last year as capacity
growth (+4.8%) outstripped traffic growth (+1.5%). For Q1, the load factor was 81.6%, down 1.5 pts y/y which
WJA primarily attributed to aggressive industry capacity growth on sun destinations. NBF expects excess industry
capacity issues to ease in Q2 and Q3. Despite the lower load factor the company is standing by its Q1 RASM
guidance previously expected to be flat to down slightly. Lower y/y RASM is also consistent with NBF’s weekly
fare surveys that show domestic fares trending below year-ago levels. NBF’s fare surveys so far for early April
show stability in pricing, but it would not be surprised to see some ongoing RASM weakness into Q2. NBF
lowered its Q1 RASM forecast to -1.2% (from -0.3%), lowered its f2015 RASM forecast to +0.1% (from +0.6%)
and bumped up its f2016 RASM to +3.7% (from +3.6%). However, NBF believes the significantly lower fuel
prices will more than offset the f/x cost headwinds and potential RASM softness and therefore continues
to forecast strong earnings growth for upcoming quarters (the current price of jet fuel is Cdn$0.64/liter,
significantly below the average of Cdn$0.90/liter WestJet paid in 2014 and the Cdn$0.94/liter it paid in Q2/14).
The biggest concern for WJA investors currently is the airline’s exposure to a weakening Western Canadian
economy and Alberta in particular (AB represents ~25% of WestJet’s total system departures); however NBF
notes that air travel in Alberta appears to have been only modestly impacted so far and it believes
demand for air travel in the rest of WestJet’s network remains healthy. That said, if demand does soften,
WestJet has flexibility to scale back its capacity growth plans. For instance, the airline could reduce its capacity
simply by accelerating the installation of its new in-flight entertainment system this year (which requires the
aircraft to be taken out of service for a period of time). Furthermore, if certain regions were to weaken (like
Alberta), WestJet has the ability to easily move aircraft into different markets.
WestJet continues to have a strong balance sheet with a healthy cash position, f2015 net debt/DBITDAR of 1.3x
and debt/capital of 57.8%. With its Q4 2014 results in February, the company also announced an increase in its
quarterly dividend to $0.14 from $0.12 (now $0.56/year)
VALUATION
NBF’s $37.00 target price is based on a 6.0x EV/EBITDAR multiple applied to its forecast for next four quarter
EBITDAR. NBF notes that the stock is trading at just 4.6x current year EV/EBITDAR versus the U.S. low cost
peer group trading at 6.3x on average. The new stock price implies a 12 month potential total return of
~39%.
*RASM = Revenue per Available Seat Mile
STRATEGIC LIST - WEEKLY UPDATE
No Changes this Week:
Comments
Energy (Overweight)
Credit Suisse: CS published an update on Canadian Oil & Gas stocks and revised its target prices and
estimates to reflect pricing for Q1, equity issuance and other operational updates. CS notes that sector
performance has not been pretty, with the stocks still off ~40% from their peak in 2014. Moreover, balance sheet
leverage remains a concern while Q1 CFPS could be down ~35% sequentially, even with its above consensus
view. While CS’ universe trades at ~70% of its full NAV estimates, near term EV/EBIDAX multiples remain
elevated vs. historical averages, particularly at strip pricing. That said, positives are emerging in the
supply/demand data that give CS greater comfort in its oil price projections and may underpin better equity
performance.
ARC Resources (ARX)




Maintained Outperform rating and $28.00 target price.
Lowered f2015 EPS and CFPS estimates to $0.26 and $2.39 respectively from $0.27 and $2.45.
Maintained f2016/f2017 EPS and CFPS estimates of $0.75/$0.95 and $3.10/$3.53 respectively.
Reports Q1 f2015 on April 29th. CS forecasts Q1 CFPS of $0.51, above consensus estimate of $0.48.
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)




Maintained Outperform rating and increased target price to $45.00 from $43.00 previously.
Increased f2015/f2016/f2017 EPS estimates to $0.58/$2.13/$2.83 from $0.41/$1.92/$2.58.
Maintained f2015 CFPS of $5.63 and increased f2016/f2017 CFPS to $7.55/$8.61 from $7.49/$8.44.
Reports Q1 f2015 on May 7th. CS forecasts Q1 CFPS of $1.07, below consensus estimate of $1.15.
Crescent Point Energy (CPG)




Maintained Neutral rating and lowered target price to $31.00 from $32.00 previously.
Lowered f2015/f2016/f2017 EPS estimates to $0.29/$0.49/$0.52 from $0.35/$0.53/$0.55.
Lowered f2015/f2016/f2017 CFPS estimates to $4.41/$4.78/$4.90 from $4.65/$4.99/$5.09.
Reports Q1 f2015 on May 7th. CS forecasts Q1 CFPS of $0.99, in line with consensus.
Materials (Market Weight)
Credit Suisse: CS revised its metals and mining commodity prices. It also downgraded its CAD/USD FX
forecasts to 0.75 long-term, from 0.85. Incorporating revised metal price and F/X assumptions, target prices for
Canadian gold equities under coverage decreased an average of 2%, and Canadian base metal equities
decreased 4%.
 Gold – CS maintains its forecast for US$1,250/oz long term, potential for a near term rally: CS is
constructive on the gold price until the beginning of June on typical seasonal strength from the India
wedding season, combined with the potential for an improvement in long positioning on the Comex
following recent weak US economic data. CS becomes more bearish again in June due to lack of
physical buying along with potential renewed anticipation of a Fed rate hike. Long term, on balance it
sees potential for a stronger USD offset by continued strong physical demand from Asia, Central Bank
purchases and tapering mine supply. CS forecasts a gold market deficit by 2016.

Base metals: with positive fundamentals, CS is constructive on copper through 2015 but more
negative for 2016/2017. CS forecasts a copper price recovery to US$3/lb in 2Q15 from Q1's $2.65/lb
average price. Near term, copper prices could be supported by a modest market deficit due to mine
disruptions on the supply side and a bolstered demand outlook from China's State Grid. CS’ 2016-2017
copper price forecast is reduced to US$2.71/US$2.49/lb (from US$3.01/US$3.00/lb) in the face of a
growing market surplus. Zinc and lead look positive on mine shortages, although the zinc deficit should
slow from the 500kt shortfall exhibited in 2014 now that China's refining capacity has picked up.
Agnico Eagle Mines: (AEM)
CS maintained its Outperform rating on Agnico Eagle Mines and the company remains one of its top picks in the
gold space for its lower cost assets, operational consistency, strong FCF and organic exploration/growth
opportunities.
CS significantly increased its f2015/f2016 EPS estimates to US$0.46/US$0.93/US$1.06 from
US$0.61/US$0.65/US$0.81 (+98%/+49%/+31%); and increased its NAV by 16% to US$26.363 (from
US$23.02). CS increased its target price by 11% to US$42.00 (from US$38.00). The new target price is based
on a 60%/40% weighting of its US$43 OpCFa valuation and US$41 NAV valuation. CS’ OpCFa valuation is
based on 19x (was 18.0x) its FY15/16E average OpCFa of US$2.24. Its NAV valuation is based on 1.45x (was
1.60x) its DCF of $31.79, and it deducts net debt and corporate adjustments of US$5.16 at par.
*OpCFa= adjusted operating cash flow per share
Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN)
Credit Suisse: CS significantly lowered its f2015/f2016/f2017 EPS estimates to US$0.42/US$0.46/US$0.32
from US$0.61/US$0.65/US$0.61 (-32%/-29%/-48%) respectively. CS maintained its Outperform rating and
lowered its target price by C$1.00 to C$7.00. The target price is based on 50/50 weighting of 1.0x its base case
net asset value per share (NAVPS) of C$7.57 (was C$6.71) and 4.0x FY15/16 EV/EBITDA (adjusted for the
Tenke Fungurume Mine). NAVPS is based on Credit Suisse long-term copper, zinc, and nickel price
assumptions.
NBF: NBF reiterated its Outperform rating and C$6.75 target price on Lundin after the company announced a
revised reserve update at Candelaria including a maiden reserve estimate at two additional deposits (Susana
and Damiana). Overall copper reserves are up 12% and after adjusting for mining depletion and refined
economic parameters, open pit reserves are up ~24% from the previous reserve estimate dated December 31,
2013. Overall, NBF is impressed with the magnitude of reserve addition given the relatively short time span
since the acquisition of Candelaria (closed on November 3, 2014). Updated reserves have the potential to
extend the current mine life beyond 2034 (NBF Estimates) and may have the added benefit of modestly
improving operating costs. However, NBF willl wait until release of the company’s updated resource estimate in
July and a revised mine plan at Candelaria in Q3 before revising its long-term operating assumptions.
NBF continues to view Lundin as a lower-risk (operationally) and financially stable alternative within the base
metals sector. The shares are currently trading at a discounted 0.81x NAV compared to multi-mine peers at
0.89x and 4.1x EV/2015E CF, compared to NBF peers at 8.5x.
Financials (Market Weight)
Manulife Financial (MFC)
NBF: Manulife announced that DBS Bank Ltd. has selected MFC to be the exclusive provider of bancassurance
solutions to DBS customers in Singapore, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and China. MFC will make an initial payment
of US$1.2 billion to DBS, which will be funded through internal resources. MFC will also make continuing,
variable payments to DBS based on the success of the partnership. NBF understands from MFC that these
payments will not be material. MFC states that the initial payment will reduce its MCCSR by 10 points, but
expects the transaction to be accretive to MFC’s Core EPS by f2017. The agreement will be effective on
January 1, 2016 and will last for 15 years.
Subsequent to the DBS announcement NBF published its Canadian Lifecos 1Q f2015 earnings preview. NBF
decided to change its approach for earnings forecasts for the Life Insurance sector. It permanently shelved its
forecasts of each life insurer’s own definitions of “core” or “operating” earnings. Instead NBF will forecast IFRS
net income to common shareholders (on a per share basis) and make that its primary EPS forecast item. NBF
will also forecast its definition of core earnings (expected profit, strain from new business and earnings on
surplus from the Sources of Earnings statement). In addition, NBF also places a greater emphasis on
movements in the shareholders’ equity account to understand each company’s relative effectiveness in
returning capital to shareholders and growing book value. Taken in total, NBF considers this approach to
provide the most comprehensive and consistent means to value Canadian life insurance companies.
MFC reports Q1 f2015 results on May 7th. NBF forecasts book value per share will rise $1.15 q/q to $17.57 and
EPS (excluding market impacts) of $0.43. It lowered its estimated IFRS EPS to $2.04 from $2.09 in f2015, to
$2.38 from $2.45 in f2016 and it introduced its f2017 estimate of $2.71. MFC was the least generous Canadian
life insurer in returning capital to shareholders in f2014. In fact, one of the reasons NBF favours MFC stems
from the company’s latent financial flexibility to return more capital to common shareholders in coming years.
NBF sees MFC as one of the Canadian large-cap financial institutions most geared to an accelerating U.S.
recovery – approximately half of the company’s balance sheet and earnings are related to its U.S. businesses.
In particular, it believes MFC’s focus on U.S. wealth management will underpin MFC’s outperformance relative
to peers as, and if, the U.S. economy picks up momentum. MFC is NBF’s top pick in Life Insurance companies
and is rated Outperform with a $26.00 target price.
Credit Suisse: Credit Suisse reiterated its Outperform rating and target Price of $26.00. MFC is Credit Suisse
Top lifeco pick. The deal with DBS Bank further supports Credit Suisse’s view of stronger relative earnings
growth due to higher contribution from faster growing markets such as Asia.
Element Financial Corp. (EFN)
Credit Suisse: EFN recently revised its 2015 outlook for finance assets & operating leases upwards by $2.6
billion or 21% and now projects it will finish the year with $16.9 billion in total assets. Credit Suisse believes the
updated outlook reflects EFN's increased confidence in its ability to execute on acquisition based growth in the
coming quarters. Credit Suisse reiterated its Outperform rating and raised its target price to $20.00 from $17.50.
It remains positive on EFN for the following reasons: 1) management's ability to execute on organic / inorganic
growth opportunities; 2) improving financial performance with ROE expected to increase by 310 bps by end of
2015; 3) favourable geographic mix with 75% of 2015E originations expected to come from the faster growing
U.S. economy.
Industrials (Market Weight)
WestJet Airlines Ltd (WJA)
NBF: NBF maintained its Outperform rating on WestJet, but trimmed its target to $37.00 from $38.00 as it takes
a slightly more conservative view on RASM trends in 2015. It believes that the company will benefit from (1)
materially lower fuel prices that more than offset f/x headwinds and potential RASM weakness, (2) ongoing
market share gains from the growth of Encore, and (3) revenue improvements stemming from the maturation of
WestJet’s Plus product and the introduction of first bag fees.
Source: NBF Research, Veritas Research, Credit Suisse Research, Bloomberg, Thomson One
NBF STRATEGIC LIST
NBF Strategic List (April 10, 2015)
WEIGHT* (%)
Ticker
Consumer Discretionary
Gildan Activewear
GIL
Thomson Reuters Corp.
TRI
Consumer Staples
Empire Company Ltd.
EMP'A
George Weston Ltd.
WN
Energy
AltaGas Ltd.
ALA
ARC Resources Ltd.
ARX
Can. Natural Resources Ltd.
CNQ
Crescent Point Energy Corp.
CPG
Enbridge Inc.
ENB
Inter Pipeline Ltd.
IPL
Financials
Bank of Montreal
BMO
Cdn. Apartment Properties REITCAR.un
Element Financial Corp.
EFN
H&R REIT
HR.un
Manulife Financial Corp.
MFC
Royal Bank of Canada
RY
Toronto Dominion Bank
TD
Health Care
Industrials
TransForce Inc.
TFI
WestJet Airlines Ltd.
WJA
Information Technology
CGI Group Inc.
GIB.A
DH Corp.
DH
Materials
Agnico Eagle Resources Ltd.
AEM
Lundin Mining Corp.
LUN
Telecom Services
Rogers Communications
RCI'B
TELUS Corp
T
Utilities
Canadian Utilities Ltd.
CU
Northland Power Inc.
NPI
ADDITION ADDITION
DATE
PRICE
21-May-14 $
27-Feb-14 $
29.09
38.31
1-Apr-15
31-Jul-12
$
$
90.80
59.25
30-Oct-13
17-Dec-14
31-Jul-12
3-Oct-12
21-Jan-15
5-Jun-13
$
$
$
$
$
$
38.19
26.82
27.35
43.00
59.87
23.71
4-Mar-15
11-Feb-15
3-Sep-14
20-Aug-14
26-Mar-14
19-Jun-13
31-Jul-12
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
76.27
26.97
14.10
23.36
21.42
60.69
39.46
11-Feb-15 $
22-Oct-14 $
29.36
30.65
22-Aug-12 $
4-Feb-15 $
25.83
38.64
17-Dec-14 $
17-Dec-14 $
27.00
5.35
27-Nov-14 $
31-Jul-12 $
45.84
31.31
31-Jul-12
8-May-13
35.00
19.43
$
$
LAST
YIELD
Strategic
PRICE
(%)
BETA
List
6.3
EQY_DVD_YLD
EQY_BETA
$ 38.78
0.8
1.0
3.2
$ 52.75
3.2
0.8
3.2
3.7
$ 93.91
1.2
0.5
1.9
$ 106.29
1.6
0.7
1.9
24.8
$ 41.84
4.2
0.8
4.1
$ 22.49
5.3
1.2
4.1
$ 40.72
2.3
1.6
4.1
$ 30.59
9.0
1.2
4.1
$ 62.80
3.0
0.8
4.1
$ 31.05
4.7
0.8
4.1
35.2
$ 78.13
4.1
0.8
5.0
$ 29.96
3.9
0.6
5.0
$ 17.58
0.0
0.9
5.0
$ 23.61
5.7
0.7
5.0
$ 22.18
2.8
1.4
5.0
$ 79.32
3.9
0.9
5.0
$ 55.23
3.7
0.9
5.0
8.5
$ 30.57
2.2
1.0
4.3
$ 27.01
2.1
0.8
4.3
3.6
$ 55.98
0.0
0.8
1.8
$ 42.38
3.0
0.8
1.8
11.4
$ 37.58
1.1
1.1
5.7
$
5.10
0.0
2.0
5.7
4.4
$ 43.30
4.4
0.7
2.2
$ 43.21
3.7
0.7
2.2
2.1
$ 40.53
2.9
0.7
1.1
$ 17.40
6.2
0.7
1.1
SPTSX NOTES**
6.5
3.8
21.4
34.6
4.9
8.4
2.4
11.0
4.7
2.2
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson One (Priced April 10, 2015 at 10:30 am EDT)
* Individual position weights reflect an adjustment for Health Care. The Health Care weighting has been reallocated to sectors rated "overweight"
with any remaining weight reallocated proportionally to the remaining sectors. As such, the individual position weights will exceed the total sector
weights and may not sum to 1
**R = Restricted Stocks - Stocks placed under restriction while on The NBF Strategic List will remain on the list, but noted as Restricted in
accordance with compliance requirements
WEEK AHEAD
THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR
U.S. Indicators
Date
Time
Release
14-Apr
14-Apr
14-Apr
14-Apr
14-Apr
14-Apr
14-Apr
14-Apr
14-Apr
14-Apr
14-Apr
14-Apr
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
09:00
10:00
Retail Sales Advance MoM
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas
Retail Sales Control Group
PPI Final Demand MoM
PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM
PPI Final Demand YoY
PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY
NFIB Small Business Optimism
Business Inventories
15-Apr
15-Apr
15-Apr
15-Apr
15-Apr
15-Apr
07:00
08:30
09:15
09:15
09:15
10:00
MBA Mortgage Applications
Empire Manufacturing
Industrial Production MoM
Capacity Utilization
Manufacturing (SIC) Production
NAHB Housing Market Index
15-Apr
15-Apr
15-Apr
14:00
16:00
16:00
U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
Net Long-term TIC Flows
Total Net TIC Flows
16-Apr
16-Apr
16-Apr
16-Apr
16-Apr
16-Apr
16-Apr
16-Apr
16-Apr
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
09:45
09:45
10:00
Housing Starts
Housing Starts MoM
Building Permits
Building Permits MoM
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Bloomberg Economic Expectations
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
10:00
10:00
10:00
10:00
10:00
10:00
CPI MoM
CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
CPI YoY
CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
CPI Index NSA
CPI Core Index SA
Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY
U. of Mich. Sentiment
U. of Mich. Current Conditions
U. of Mich. Expectations
U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation
U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation
Leading Index
Period
Previous
Consensus
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Feb
-0.60%
-0.10%
-0.20%
0.00%
-0.50%
-0.50%
0.00%
-0.60%
1.00%
0.70%
98
0.00%
1.00%
0.70%
0.70%
0.40%
0.20%
0.10%
--0.90%
1.00%
-98.2
0.30%
Apr 10
Apr
Mar
Mar
Mar
Apr
0.40%
6.9
0.10%
78.90%
-0.20%
53
-6.5
-0.20%
78.70%
0.00%
56
Feb
Feb
-$27.2B
$88.3B
---
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Apr 11
Apr 4
Apr 12
Apr
Apr
897K
-17.00%
1092K
3.00%
281K
2304K
47.9
51.5
5
1040K
15.90%
1080K
-2.00%
----5
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Apr P
Apr P
Apr P
Apr P
Apr P
Mar
0.20%
0.20%
0.00%
1.70%
234.722
240.247
2.60%
93
105
85.3
3.00%
2.80%
0.20%
0.20%
0.20%
0.10%
1.70%
---93.9
----0.30%
Period
Previous
Consensus
Apr 10
55
--
Mar
Mar
Mar
0.10%
4.40%
167.52
0.00%
---
Feb
Mar
Apr 15
-1.70%
1.00%
0.75%
--0.75%
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Feb
Feb
Feb
0.90%
1.00%
125.4
0.60%
2.10%
0.20%
0.10%
-1.70%
-1.80%
5.73B
0.50%
1.00%
-0.30%
2.10%
------
Canadian Indicators
Date
Time
13-Apr
10:00
Bloomberg Nanos Confidence
14-Apr
14-Apr
14-Apr
08:30
08:30
08:30
Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM
Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY
Teranet/National Bank HP Index
15-Apr
15-Apr
15-Apr
08:30
09:00
10:00
15-Apr
10:00
Manufacturing Sales MoM
Existing Home Sales MoM
Bank of Canada Rate Decision
Bank of Canada Releases Monetary Policy
Report
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
17-Apr
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
CPI NSA MoM
CPI YoY
Consumer Price Index
CPI Core MoM
CPI Core YoY
CPI SA MoM
CPI Core SA MoM
Retail Sales MoM
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
Int'l Securities Transactions
Source : Bloomberg
Release
S&P/TSX QUARTERLY EARNINGS CALENDAR
th
None
th
COMPANY*
Shaw Communications Inc
Performance Sports Group Ltd
SYMBOL
SJR.b
PSG
th
None
th
None
th
None
*Companies of the S&P/TSX index expected to report. Stocks from the Strategic List are in Bold.
EPS ESTIMATE
0.39
0.098
S&P500 INDEX QUARTERLY EARNINGS CALENDAR
th
None
th
COMPANY*
CSX Corp
Fastenal Co
Intel Corp
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase & Co
Linear Technology Corp
M&T Bank Corp
Wells Fargo & Co
SYMBOL
CSX
FAST
INTC
JNJ
JPM
LLTC
MTB
WFC
EPS ESTIMATE
0.447
0.42
0.405
1.539
1.41
0.529
1.769
0.977
SYMBOL
BAC
SCHW
DAL
NFLX
PNC
PGR
SNDK
USB
EPS ESTIMATE
0.297
0.231
0.477
0.633
1.713
0.426
0.712
0.763
SYMBOL
ADS
AXP
BLK
C
GS
KEY
KMI
MAT
PBCT
PM
PPG
SLB
SHW
UNH
GWW
EPS ESTIMATE
3.423
1.364
4.536
1.394
4.215
0.265
0.231
-0.091
0.199
1.016
2.344
0.922
1.44
1.346
3.152
th
COMPANY*
Bank of America Corp
Charles Schwab Corp/The
Delta Air Lines Inc
Netflix Inc
PNC Financial Services Group Inc/The
Progressive Corp/The
SanDisk Corp
US Bancorp/MN
th
COMPANY*
Alliance Data Systems Corp
American Express Co
BlackRock Inc
Citigroup Inc
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The
KeyCorp
Kinder Morgan Inc/DE
Mattel Inc
People's United Financial Inc
Philip Morris International Inc
PPG Industries Inc
Schlumberger Ltd
Sherwin-Williams Co/The
UnitedHealth Group Inc
WW Grainger Inc
th
COMPANY*
Comerica Inc
General Electric Co
Honeywell International Inc
Seagate Technology PLC
SYMBOL
CMA
GE
HON
STX
EPS ESTIMATE
0.729
0.302
1.394
1.055
* Companies of the S&P500 index expected to report. Stocks from the Credit Suisse U.S. Focus List are in Bold.

The Week at a Glance

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