THE INFLATIONARY COSTS OF EXTREME WEATHER: EVIDENCE FROM THE
Transcription
THE INFLATIONARY COSTS OF EXTREME WEATHER: EVIDENCE FROM THE
THE INFLATIONARY COSTS OF EXTREME WEATHER: EVIDENCE FROM THE CARIBBEAN Andreas Heinen Universite Cergy-Pontoise Jeetendra Khadan International Development Bank Eric Strobl Ecole Polytechnique & SALISES INTRODUCTION Extreme weather: nearly US$3 trillion damages globally since 1980 Caribbean: 9% loss of annual GDP by 2030 (CCRIF,2010) Examples: o Hurricane Ivan (2004) – 300 % of Grenada’s GDP o 2013 Xmas Floods – 15% of St. Vincent & the Grenadines’ GDP Literature on natural disasters focuses on long-term (GDP growth) However, the short-term adjustment will determine the extent of the long-term impact INTRODUCTION Natural disaster→ shortage of goods & services → prices ↑ Understanding this process can be important for policymakers Only one study of short-term impact on prices - impact This Study: a. Estimates the inflationary costs of floods and hurricanes for the Caribbean b. Calculates expected welfare costs using case study of Jamaica DATA Constructed data for: (i) Hurricane destruction: use storm track data, a wind field model, and local exposure measure (ii) Flood destruction: use rainfall data, intensity duration model, and local exposure measure (iii) Prices: monthly data on CPI and sub-categories → nearly-balanced monthly panel of 15 Caribbean countries/territories over 2001-2012 SUMMARY STATISTICS (i) Hurricane Destruction: In any month there is a 6.3 % chance of hurricane damages (ii) Flood Destruction: In any month there is a 30 % of flood damages SUMMARY OF ESTIMATION RESULTS Estimation Results: 1. Hurricanes: contemporary and lagged inflationary impact on aggregate, food, housing & utilities, and other goods & services 2. Floods: contemporary inflationary impact on aggregate, food and other goods and services, but not on housing and utilities SUMMARY OF ECONOMETRIC RESULTS Observed Impacts (% pts): 1. Across all price categories hurricanes cause on average about a 40% increase in monthly prices; floods cause on average about 20 % increase in monthly prices 2. The really large observed events caused prices to increase multi- fold, particularly for hurricanes EXPECTED WELFARE COSTS Expected welfare costs of ‘inflationary’ extreme weather? Need two components: (i) Welfare cost: compensating variation – amount of additional money needed to keep a household at the same level of ‘happiness’ (ii) Probability: bivariate peak over threshold modeling of hurricane & floods EXPECTED WELFARE COSTS Case study of Jamaica (JSLC 2012) - calculated goods’ shares (food, h&u, other) and estimated price elasticities Results: Mean Compensating Variation (CV) as % of Household Income: Event (yrs): CV (%): 1 0.22 5 10 50 1.57 4.14 41.03 EXPECTED WELFARE COSTS .41 .4 .39 .38 Compensating Varation .42 50 Year Event – CV (%) 0 20000 40000 60000 Consumption per Capita 80000 100000 CONCLUSION Investigated the inflationary impact of extreme weather in the Caribbean → non-negligible Using case study of Jamaica showed that expected welfare costs can be substantial, especially for the poor Policy makers may want to take this into account in disaster management planning