Pictet Quality Global Equities - e

Transcription

Pictet Quality Global Equities
Laurent NGUYEN
22.04.2015
Vienna
Pictet Asset Management | For professional investors only | Pictet Quality Global Equities
Executive summary
›
Why Quality ?
− Invest in companies having competitive and sustainable business advantage
− Attractive risk-adjusted performance over a full market cycle
− Down-markets resilience
›
Why Pictet ?
− An unique blend of judgmental, quantitative and technical skills
− Proprietary framework with four diversifying dimensions
− Research results vindicated by last two years performance
›
Why Now ?
− Next market phase likely to be supportive for Quality companies in light of low expected growth,
deflation scares and sideways markets
2
1
Why Quality ?
3
Defining Quality
High and stable return businesses
that are resilient to economic cycles
and reasonably priced
The economic rationale for Quality
High return businesses…
Reasonably priced businesses…
Profitable companies are less-likely to take short-term,
potentially counter-productive, measures due to market
pressures.
For a given stream of long-term future cash flows, the
higher the price, the lower the expected return and the
higher the riskiness (i.e. duration) of the asset.
The comfort of a wide economic moat should translate in
better strategic, value-enhancing, decisions in the long-run.
Moreover, stocks with high expectations baked in the price
are more likely to disappoint than otherwise.
Stable return businesses…
Resilient businesses…
High financial leverage and aggressive M&A policies are
double-edged swords.
Companies having demonstrated their ability to better
navigate the economic cycle tend to provide down-market
protection which is in-line with our conviction that in the
long-run, to gain more, you have to start by losing less.
Prudent companies should be less vulnerable than their
reckless peers during and after the unavoidable “hangover”
phase.
5
A proprietary framework : the 4P’s of Quality
High return
• Gross, Operating and Net
margins
• Asset efficiency
• Special items
• ROCE, ROE
• Long term averages and
trend
Stable return
• Equity / Assets
• Debt/EV
• Cash flows /Interest costs
• Debt/Cash Flows
• 5 yr Asset Growth
Profitability
Price
Reasonably priced
• Price/Book
• Price/Sales
• Price/Cash Flow
• Price/Earnings
• EV/EBITDA
• Dividend Yield
QUALITY
COMPANIES
Prudence
Protection
Resilient
• Volatility
• Beta
• Correlation
• Drawdowns
Source : For illustration purposes only.
6
Nestlé (in portfolio)
Global player in food & beverages with market Cap of $250bn and $100bn annual sales
Profitability
Annualised return:
Nestlé :13%
MSCI World : 7%
Prudence
Price
Protection
Final Rank
Profitability
Prudence
Protection
Price
•
Beta 0.5 vs. MSCI World.
•
Volatility: 18%
Source: Bloomberg, Worldscope, Pictet Asset Management. Figures are shown in US Dollars, as at February 28, 2015.
The metrics shown are only for illustrative purposes and do not reflect the comprehensive list of metrics used to build the Pictet Quality portfolio.
Pictet Asset Management Ltd has not acquired any rights or license to reproduce the trademarks, logos or images set out in this document except that it holds the rights to use any entity of the Pictet group
trademarks. The trademarks, logos and images set out in this document are used only for the purpose of this presentation.
7
L’Oréal(in portfolio)
Global cosmetics company with market Cap of $93bn and $22bn annual sales
Profitability
Annualised return:
L’Oreal :12%
MSCI World : 7%
Prudence
Price
Protection
Final Rank
Profitability
Prudence
Protection
Price
•
•
Volatility: 24%
Source: Bloomberg, Worldscope, Pictet Asset Management. Figures are shown in US Dollars, as at February 28, 2015..
8
ThyssenKrupp (not in portfolio)
European steel manufacturer with market Cap of $15bn and $56bn annual sales
Profitability
Annualised return:
ThyssenKrupp :6%
MSCI World : 7%
Prudence
Price
Protection
Final Rank
Profitability
Prudence
Protection
Price
•
•
Volatility: 39%
Source: Bloomberg, Worldscope, Pictet Asset Management. Figures are shown in US Dollars, as at February 28, 2015..
9
A robust historical evidence
Historical risk/reward of high and low quality companies
14%
12%
Low Price
Top 25% Quality
Annualized Return
10%
High Protection
High Profitability
8%
High Prudence
MSCI World
6%
Low Prudence
4%
Low Profitability
2%
Low Protection
High Price
Bottom 25% Quality
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Annualized Volatility
25%
30%
Portfolio s simulated following our Quality investment process on a global equities universe. Portfolio rebalanced every 3 months.
Source: Pictet Asset Management, Datastream, MSCI. Performance presented gross of trading and tax cost, total return in USD. Non GIPS compliant. Dividends reinvested.
Date: 31.12.1991-30.11.2012. Simulated past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Total return performance in USD of cap-weighted top/bottom quartiles.
10
A defensive investment style outperforming in low growth environments
Simulated Pictet Quality strategy vs. MSCI World
Simulated Strategy
Annualized 5Y rolling monthly performance
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
MSCI World: Annualized 5Y rolling monthly performance
Portfolio simulated following our Quality investment process on a global equities universe. Portfolio rebalanced every 3 months.
Date: 31.12.1991-30.11.2012. Simulated past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
11
2
Why Pictet ?
›
›
›
›
›
Philosophy
People
Process
Performance
Portfolio
12
Philosophy : What are we convinced of ?
(Human + Machine + Process) > Machine > Human1
Leveraging the skills of traditionally opposed investment
schools within a well-defined and robust process is key to
long-term success.
Fundamental intuition and knowledge coupled with
quantitative rigor and risk culture result in portfolios
delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme2
Investment process must be research-led and evidencebased.
Constant collaborative research between judgmental and
quantitative analysts help us recognize and adapt to
changing or unusual market conditions.
An inability to be guided by a "healthy fear"
of bad consequences is a disastrous flaw3
Everybody makes mistakes. Thoughtful portfolio
construction helps minimize the cost of those future,
unknowable, un-forecastable and un-plannable errors.
Moreover, the fact that this “healthy fear” is in short supply
among markets participants is a key reason why quality
companies outperform through time.
1 Inspired by Gary Kasparov
2 Mark Twain
3 Daniel Kahneman
13
People : A diversified set of skills
Portfolio Manager
Laurent Nguyen
Fundamental Research Analysts
D Tsang (Tech)
Marc Booty (Healthcare)
J Bryon (Consumer)
S Nora (Financials)
A Sinclair (Insurance)
K Osafo Maafo (Materials)
Quant Research Analysts
Stéphane Daul
Olivier Monti
Rémy Cottet
ADDITIONAL INVESTMENT
RESEARCH
Quantitative Analysts
Reda Jürg Messikh
Ola Obanubi
Fundamental Analyst
Geetu Sharma
IT Analysts
Fabien Grossetête
Odorico von Susani
Product Specialist
Habib Nasrallah
CORE TEAM
Index team
Stéphane Cornet
David Billaux
Samuel Gorgerat
Roland Riat
Jean-Michel Piuz
Uy-Liem Guillaume Douçot
Geoffrey Aspeele
Benjamin Katlama
TRADING & OPERATIONAL
SUPPORT
As at December 31, 2014.
14
Process : A no-nonsense, scalable process
c. 650
c. 2,700
1
QUALITY ASSESMENT
› Data cleaning & validation
› Application of the 4Ps
framework
› Top 25% selected
companies
companies
2
INVESTIBLE
UNIVERSE
RESEARCH
UNIVERSE
c. 150 - 200
c. 350
companies
companies1
3
ELIGIBLE
COMPANIES
FUNDAMENTAL VALIDATION
› Judgemental review
› Active selection
› Elimination of false positives
FINAL
PORTFOLIO
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
› Max. 1.5% weight per stock
› Size and liquidity constraints
› No small cap bias
› Low transaction costs
QUARTERLY REBALANCING TO ENSURE THAT RANKING IS DRIVEN BY LATEST FUNDAMENTAL DATA
1 Global companies with a float above USD 2 bio
15
Process : analyze, validate & optimize
›
›
›
Quality analysis
−
4Ps Framework applied to each company to create an aggregate score
−
Quality rank is the equally-weighted sum of the rank of our individual quality factors
−
Stocks scoring in the top 25% qualify for the next step
Fundamental validation
−
Judgmental review of hard to quantify elements (goodwill, intangibles, forward looking statements, change in
accounting rules, etc… ) using fundamental analysis, market intelligence and PAM-wide industry expertise
−
Eliminate stocks screening poorly on individual metrics even if the aggregate rank is favorable.
Portfolio construction
−
Track cap-weighted portfolio of eligible quality companies with the following constraints :
- Maximum weight per company : 1.5%
›
- No small-cap bias
Rebalancing rules
−
Main rebalancing occur on a quarterly basis driven by earnings reporting frequency (Nov, Feb, May, Aug)
−
Ad-hoc rebalancing on a monthly basis driven by change in valuation and risk (Price & Protection)
16
Value-added of a risk-controlled portfolio construction
Historical risk/reward of high and low quality companies
12%
Low Price
Optimized Quality
Top 25% Quality
Annualized Return
10%
High Profitability
High Protection
High Prudence
8%
MSCI World
6%
10%
13%
15%
18%
Portfolio simulated following our Quality investment process on a global equities universe. Portfolio rebalanced every 3 months.
17
Performance : Outperformed the MSCI World by +3.4% in 2014
›
5th percentile among global
equity managers
Annual performance since inception
30%
26.68%
›
25%
Results in-line with our
research
23.46%
20%
15.8%
15%
15.3%
10%
8.55%
5%
0%
2013
4.94%
2013
2014
2014
Pictet-Quality Global Equities-I USD
2015
2013-2014
2015
2016
MSCI World NR USD
Source : Pictet. Pictet Quality Global Equities – I Share in USD. Net dividend reinvested. Net of fees
18
The advantages of a diversified framework
Risk/reward of high and low quality companies in 2014
12%
Top 25% Quality
High Profitability
10%
High Protection
Annualized Return
8%
High Prudence
6%
High Price
MSCI World
4%
Low Prudence
2%
Low Price
Low Profitability
0%
Low Protection
Bottom 25% Quality
-2%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
Portfolios simulated following our Quality investment process on a global equities universe. Portfolio rebalanced every 3 months.
13%
14%
Source
19
The dispersion among “Price” indicators
Risk/reward of price metrics in 2014
6%
MSCI World
5%
Low EV/EBITDA
Annualized Return
4%
Low P/E
3%
2%
LOW PRICE
1%
Low Price/Sales
Low Price/Dividend
Low Price/CF
0%
Low P/B
-1%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
Source
20
Since inception risk/return characteristics in-line with expectations
›
Defensive stance
RISK/RETURN STATISTICS SINCE INCEPTION
›
Performance in-line with
benchmark
Quality Equities
Beta
›
Better risk-adjusted
performance
MSCI World
Relative
0.83
1.00
-0.17
Annualized Return
14.8%
15.0%
-0.2%
Annualized Volatility / TE
8.5%
9.7%
2.9%
Sharpe / IR
1.75
1.54
-0.06
-7.5%
-9.3%
-6.0%
From
03.07.2014
03.07.2014
17.04.2013
To
16.10.2014
16.10.2014
19.01.2014
Maximum Drawdown
Source : Pictet, MSCI. Before fees in USD. From 30.11.2012 to 31.03.2015
21
Portfolio characteristics
Sector exposures
Biggest country deviations
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
-10%
Energy
Switzerland
Materials
United States
Industrials
United Kingdom
Consumer Discretionary
Singapore
Consumer Staples
Israel
Health Care
Italy
Financials
Australia
Information Technology
France
Telecommunications Services
Canada
Utilities
Germany
Portfolio
Benchmark
Active
Source : Pictet, MSCI. As of 31.03.2015
Pictet Asset Management | For internal purposes only | Quality Global Equities - Monthly Report
0%
10%
Portfolio
20%
Benchmark
30%
40%
50%
60%
Active
Source: Pictet, MSCI. As of 31.03.2015
22
Portfolio characteristics
PORTFOLIO CHARACTERISTICS
TOP 10 OVERWEIGHT
Portfolio
MSCI World
Active Share
77%
Tracking Error
3.6%
Beta
0.78
1.0
10.7%
15.2%
181
1633
Median Market Cap (USD)
16.3B
11B
P/E
18.2x
22.3x
Dividend Yield
3.0%
2.3%
ROE
21.0%
17.5%
Volatility
Number of Positions
Source : Pictet, MSCI, APT, Factset. Risk figures on an ex-ante basis. As of 31.03.2015
Company
Conocophillips Co
Mcdonald's Corp
Royal Dutch Shell Plc (nl)
Bp Plc
Qualcomm Inc
Cisco Systems Inc
United Parcel Service Inc
International Business Machines Corp
Intel Corp
Wal-mart Stores Inc
Portfolio
1.52%
1.51%
1.52%
1.53%
1.50%
1.52%
1.28%
1.52%
1.52%
1.45%
MSCI World
0.23%
0.28%
0.35%
0.35%
0.34%
0.42%
0.20%
0.45%
0.45%
0.39%
Difference
1.29%
1.23%
1.18%
1.17%
1.15%
1.10%
1.08%
1.07%
1.07%
1.06%
TOP 10 UNDERWEIGHT
Company
Google Inc
Wells Fargo & Co
Apple Inc
Jpmorgan Chase & Co
Verizon Communications Inc
At&t Inc
Walt Disney Co (holding Company)
Berkshire Hathaway Inc
Facebook Inc
Merck & Co Inc
Portfolio
0.00%
0.00%
1.49%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
MSCI World
0.94%
0.80%
2.17%
0.67%
0.60%
0.50%
0.50%
0.50%
0.49%
0.49%
Difference
-0.94%
-0.80%
-0.68%
-0.67%
-0.60%
-0.50%
-0.50%
-0.50%
-0.49%
-0.49%
Pictet Asset Management | For internal purposes only | Quality Global Equities - Monthly Report
23
3
Why Now ?
24
What we know
We are in an aging bull market…
fuelled by low-rates …
and unprecedented liquidity injections…
offering very asymmetric risk-reward…
to yield-hungry investors
Pictet Asset Management | For professional investors only | Pictet-Quality Global Equities
25
What we expect
Next market phase likely to be supportive for Quality
Simulated Pictet Quality strategy vs. MSCI World
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
?
0%
-5%
Simulated Strategy
Annualized 5Y rolling monthly performance
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
MSCI World annualized 5Y return
Source : MSCI. MSCI World Total Return in USD. As of 31.12.2014.
12.2015
12.2014
12.2013
12.2012
12.2011
12.2010
12.2009
12.2008
12.2007
12.2006
12.2005
12.2004
12.2003
12.2002
12.2001
12.2000
12.1999
12.1998
12.1997
12.1996
-10%
-5%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
MSCI World: Annualized 5Y rolling monthly performance
Portfolio simulated following our Quality investment process on a global equities universe.
Portfolio rebalanced every 3 months.
Source: Pictet Asset Management, Datastream, MSCI.
Performance presented gross of trading and tax cost, total return in USD. Non GIPS compliant. Dividends reinvested.
Date: 31.12.1991-30.11.2012. Simulated past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
26
Conclusion
› A systematic strategy investing in high and stable return businesses that are
resilient to economic cycles and attractively priced
› A unique process leveraging fundamental and quantitative insights backed by indepth research over several market cycles
› Attractive strategy in an era of low growth and elevated macro risks
27
Appendix
28
2014 : Market review & performance attribution
Sector relative performance
Sector performance attribution
-0.5%
-20% -15% -10% -5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Energy (-)
Energy
Materials (-)
Materials
Industrials (-)
Industrials
Consumer Discretionary (+)
Cons. Discr.
Consumer Staples (+)
Cons. Staples
Health Care (+)
Health Care
Financials (-)
Financials
Information Technology (-)
IT
Telecommunications Services (+)
Telecom
Utilities (+)
Utilities
MSCI World YTD = 4.94%
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg. Between 31.12.2013 and 31.12.2014
Portfolio Active Contribution (+4.38%)
-Selection Effect (+3.65%)
-Allocation Effect (+0.72%)
Source : Pictet, Datastream, MSCI. Between 31.12.2013 and 31.12.2014
29
2014 : Market review & performance attribution
Region relative performance
-15%
Region performance attribution
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
-0.5%
10%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
United States (-)
Japan (+)
MSCI North America
Germany (-)
Canada (+)
MSCI Europe
France (-)
Switzerland (+)
Belgium (-)
MSCI Japan
Sweden (-)
Hong Kong (+)
MSCI Pacific Ex-Japan
United Kingdom (+)
Portfolio Active Contribution (+4.38%)
MSCI World YTD = 4.94%
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg. Between 31.12.2013 and 31.12.2014
-Selection Effect (+3.96%)
-Allocation Effect (+0.41%)
Source : Pictet, Datastream, MSCI. Between 31.12.2013 and 31.12.2014
30
2014 : Detailed performance attribution
TOP/BOTTOM THREE BY SECTOR/REGION
POSITIVE
Allocation
Selection
TOTAL
TOP/BOTTOM TEN CONTRIBUTORS
Companies
NEGATIVE
Contribution
Home Depot Inc (+)
29
Util-North America (+)
+58 Finance-North America (-)
-44
Intel Corp (+)
23
Finance-Europe Ex-UK (-)
+34 Infotech-North America (-)
-23
Tim Hortons Inc (+)
20
Consstap-North America (+)
+33 Telecom-Japan (+)
-18
Bristol-myers Squibb Co (+)
19
+56 Energy-North America (-)
-34
Union Pacific Corp (+)
18
Altria Group Inc (+)
17
Consdisc-North America (+)
+51 Consstap-United Kingdom (+)
-34
Kroger Co (+)
16
Energy-Europe Ex-UK (-)
+47 Energy-United Kingdom (+)
-19
Schlumberger Nv (-)
16
+89 Consstap-United Kingdom (+)
-52
Cisco Systems Inc (+)
15
Util-North America (+)
+72 Finance-North America (-)
-45
Statoil Asa (+)
15
Consdisc-North America (+)
+60 Energy-United Kingdom (+)
-23
Tesco Plc (+)
-13
Wells Fargo & Co (-)
-13
Yahoo Japan Corp, Tokyo (+)
-13
Conocophillips Co (+)
-16
Royal Dutch Shell Plc (nl) (+)
-16
Morrison Wm. Supermarkets Plc (+)
-16
Apple Inc (-)
-18
Glaxosmithkline Plc (+)
-18
Occidental Petroleum Corp (+)
-21
Bp Plc (+)
-28
Source : Pictet, Datastream, MSCI. Between 31.12.2013 and 31.12.2014. Figures in basis points
Source : Pictet, Datastream, MSCI. Between 31.12.2013 and 31.12.2014. Figures in basis points
31
Monthly 4P’s performance decomposition
4P’s monthly performance since inception
Long-Short Portfolios (Long=Top 25%, Short=Bottom 25%)
Date
12.2012
01.2013
02.2013
03.2013
04.2013
05.2013
06.2013
07.2013
08.2013
09.2013
10.2013
11.2013
12.2013
01.2014
02.2014
03.2014
04.2014
05.2014
06.2014
07.2014
08.2014
09.2014
10.2014
11.2014
12.2014
01.2015
02.2015
03.2015
MSCI World (TR)
1.9%
5.1%
0.2%
2.4%
3.2%
0.1%
-2.4%
5.3%
-2.1%
5.0%
3.9%
1.8%
2.2%
-3.7%
5.1%
0.2%
1.1%
2.1%
1.8%
-1.6%
2.2%
-2.7%
0.7%
2.1%
-1.6%
-1.8%
5.9%
-1.5%
PROFITABILITY
PRUDENCE
-3.9%
-1.5%
0.2%
0.7%
-2.9%
1.2%
-0.4%
-1.4%
0.0%
-2.4%
-0.4%
1.5%
0.8%
-1.5%
0.9%
0.7%
1.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.1%
1.5%
0.9%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
1.5%
-0.7%
-1.6%
PRICE
-1.6%
0.8%
0.2%
1.3%
-1.0%
1.3%
1.0%
-0.7%
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
1.0%
0.3%
2.3%
-2.0%
1.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
-0.4%
1.2%
-0.7%
1.3%
1.3%
1.8%
-0.7%
1.3%
PROTECTION
1.8%
-0.1%
-1.9%
-2.2%
1.8%
-3.3%
-1.3%
0.4%
0.0%
-1.0%
0.8%
-1.6%
-0.8%
-2.7%
0.1%
4.4%
4.0%
-1.7%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-2.0%
-1.7%
-1.0%
-1.7%
-1.1%
-1.2%
-1.1%
-2.1%
QUALITY
-5.2%
-1.3%
5.2%
6.3%
1.0%
-6.9%
5.8%
-5.3%
-2.3%
-3.7%
-0.7%
-0.4%
-1.2%
-1.3%
-1.5%
1.6%
1.2%
0.2%
-0.2%
0.6%
0.8%
2.0%
3.4%
0.3%
2.1%
1.5%
-4.7%
1.0%
-3.6%
-0.4%
1.8%
2.5%
-0.9%
-3.5%
2.0%
-2.7%
-0.6%
-2.9%
0.1%
0.4%
-0.2%
-1.6%
0.8%
2.5%
2.8%
0.0%
-0.2%
0.0%
-0.1%
1.4%
2.3%
1.2%
1.8%
2.5%
-3.0%
-0.6%
Source : Pictet, Datastream, Worldscope, MSCI. Total return in USD. Before fees.
32
Pictet Asset Management
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www.pictet.com
www.pictetfunds.com
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investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested.
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In Canada Pictet AM Inc is a regulated Investment Adviser authorized to conduct marketing activities on behalf of Pictet AM Ltd and Pictet AM SA. In the USA, Pictet AM Inc's activities are
conducted in full compliance with the SEC rules applicable to the marketing of affiliate entities as prescribed in the Adviser Act of 1940 ref. 17CFR275.206(4)-3.
Pictet Asset Management | For professional investors only | Pictet-Quality Global Equities
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Pictet Quality Global Equities - e

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