third edition, March 2009

Transcription

Asset | Econometrics Magazine
Volume 17, third edition, March 2009
It is an honour!
Interview honorary member Pieter Ruys
The Economatrixxx
Lustrum special
Still a beautiful mind?
Special: John Nash
ekst
e k st r e c o r d e q u a l ise d !
prefa c e
COLOP HON
NIBC
Nekst is the quar ter ly magazine
of Asset | Econometr ics ©2009
Corresp ondence
T ilburg Universit y
R o om E 110
P.O. B ox 90153
5000 LE T ilburg
Telephone: 013 466 27 47
info@Asset-Econometr ics.nl
www.Asset-Econometr ics.nl
Editorial staff
M ar leen B alver t
Tess B euk ers
S er vaas van B ilsen
T im B o onen
T imo D eist
Emile van E len
M irjam G ro ote Schaarsb erg
Whitney Pattinaja
B as Ver heul
Linda Vos
Contributions
M ar ije Alblas
Ir is B lank ers
H ettie B o onman
Er ic van Damme
Frans Fonville
S o esja G rundel
B as Hamers
D ennis Jaheruddin
M athijs Jansen
Lina J in
Ar noud K lep
R oy Lindelauf
R o el M ehlk opf
T im van der M olen Kuip ers
J ob Pr ince
Hans R eijnierse
B ar t van Schupp en
Tycho Sp eek enbr ink
T im Thijssen
Sjo erd T immer mans
J or is van To or
Freder ic Ver meulen
M arcel van Vuuren
M ar nix Zoutenbier
As editor-in-chief, it is my job to inform you about the contents of Nekst.
Although I realise many of you prefer quality above quantity, I would like to
stress the number of pages of the third edition of the seventeenth volume,
which happens to be this edition.
Seventy two pages to be precise. Hopefully, you will consider it a blessing in disguise if
the content is just as interesting as it normally is. Seems like most of our readers were
right in the first place: quality does matter. Of course, I am well aware of that, which is
the reason why I contemplated (whilst trying to catch some sleep in my springy bed) on
how we managed to equalise this notorious yet striking record. After some thought it felt
as though my thoughts were converging to a tenable answer, so it was time to try and
compare it with a current daily life occurrence, just in case people might approach me
to discuss this noteworthy matter. I know it is a bit tedious, but I really saw a comparison
with the current credit crunch: the record number of pages is a highly unlikely happening
that occured only because of other coinciding occurrences that are all unlikely to happen
individually.
The rather obvious – yours sincerely likes to find causal connections – next question is
what those coinciding occurrences actually are. In other words, what made this edition
so thick? Luckily for me, this question matches the actual intention of this preface, as
described in the first sentence. Are you ready for the answer? For intelligibility I will
introduce a new paragraph.
Asset | Econometrics just survived the celebration of its sixth lustrum. Hence, many pages,
recognisable by the lay-out in the theme of the lustrum, are devoted to this unforgettable
week. Also, the interview with honorary member Pieter Ruys, the guest column by
former editor-in-chief Tim Thijssen, an additional page with remarkable quotes, a report
about the National Econometricians Day, the Orientation & Information Day, the second
freshmen activity, the General Members Meeting and the two specials about the history
of probability theory and John Nash, make this edition record equalising. Please enjoy!
E nglish language correc tor
Nikk i Idema
Printing
D rukk er ij O ffset S er vice
Circulation
650
Emile van Elen
Editor-in-chief
Nekst 3 - March 2009
a b l e o f C o ntents
01
Preface
05
From the board
07
Chairmen of Asset associations
08
Interview Pieter Ruys
13
Opinion poll
14
Business interview CBS
16
Freshmen activity
17
Column Roel Mehlkopf
18
Living in lodges
21
Orientation & Information Day
22
Special: another introduction to probability theory
24
The passion of Frank van Dijk
27
Column Frederic Vermeulen
28
Scientific article CQM
31
Committee profile
32
The teacher: Edwin van Dam
34
Business interview AEGON
39
Drink and activity
40
Exchange report
42
National Econometricians Day
44
Lustrum: Quiz and Almanac
45
Lustrum: Sports afternoon
47
Lustrum: Gala
48
Lustrum: Company day
49
Lustrum: Party
52
Practical report
57
Guest column Tim Thijssen
58
Trie-angle
62
Special: John Nash
65
General members meeting and drink
66
Cooking with the committee
68
Puzzle
70
Quatsch and Rectifications
72
Graduates and Planning
Advertisements
NIBC
cover
Eneco
04
Aon
06
All Options
10
Ernst & Young
12
Flow Traders
20
IMC
26
Symposium
30
ORTEC
38
Charity: Pure for Kids
46
PGGM
54
KPMG
56
Rabobank
60
Watson Wyatt
64
PricewaterhouseCoopers
67
AEGON
cover
SNS REAAL
cover
t hi r ( s ) t y ?
from the board
Eneco
Dear members, after a well deserved Christmas break, we were ready for 2009. A year we had certainly been
looking forward to. After months of anticipation, we would finally get to celebrate our association’s sixth
lustrum. Excited about all the ideas that had been put forward by the lustrum committee and the amazing
creativity of the Almanac committee, we simply could not wait to see the result. But first we had to survive
the General Members Meeting.
It was not the meeting itself that some of us
were worried about. It was the drink afterwards.
Because the GMM was scheduled on a Thursday
and most of us had to get up quite early, we were
not that excited about having to stay for drinks
until the bar closed at 4.00 hours. Somehow
that thought vanished as soon as we got to the
bar. It was not that crowded and most people
went home quite early. This left the board
and a handful of members at the bar with an
unfinished free barrel of beer. The challenge of
emptying it before closing time turned out to be
a mission impossible, but it sure made it one of
the most memorable drinks of our board year.
After another successful edition of the
Orientation and Information Day, it was finally
time to start the celebration of our sixth lustrum.
After winning the pub quiz at the pre-lustrum
event earlier on in the year, we had good hopes
for the quiz that we would participate in during
the opening of the lustrum. Unfortunately, this
time Emile was busy preparing the presentation
of the Almanac and we had to do without him
and his shocking knowledge of uninteresting
facts mentioned in the previous edition of
Nekst. Luckily, our defeat was soon forgotten as
the evening continued with the presentation of
the Almanac. We had not seen the introductory
movie or the Almanac yet, so we were as stunned
by the work of the Almanac committee as the
other visitors were.
The lustrum celebrations continued with the
sports afternoon, a gala on Valentine’s Day
and a company day in Utrecht. The highlight
of the gala was certainly the salsa workshop.
Although some people had trouble with their
aching muscles from the sports afternoon and
preferred to stay near the bar, most had a blast
showing off their dance moves. Looking at the
other board members, I was fairly certain that if
dance moves were a selection criterion for the
board, we would all be studying this year, but
that certainly did not spoil the fun.
Time flies when you’re having fun, is a saying that
certainly applied to the lustrum celebrations. On
Tuesday, it was already time for the final party,
which was kicked-off by a Beer Thirty. Just before
the beginning of the Beer Thirty, the Lustrum
committee had a pleasant surprise for us. Instead
of helping out the committee as scheduled, we
could participate. The Beer Thirty was a great
start to a great party. Halfway through the party,
the board of 2007-2008 surprised us with a nice
present for the association, in honour of the
sixth lustrum. A lustrum seems to be a good time
to honour the association’s traditions. Therefore,
we were not at all surprised when, at the end of
the party, none of us knew anything about the
whereabouts of the present.
Shortly after the lustrum celebration it was
time for yet another major event, the National
Econometricians Day. Even though we had to
travel all the way to Groningen to participate,
the interesting day and fun evening made it all
totally worth it. The celebration of our lustrum,
carnival and the fun we had in Groningen
turned out to be just a bit too much for my
voice. I was barely able to speak for two days,
resulting in one of the more memorable board
meetings till so far. The five of us spent the entire
meeting whispering to each other. It is things
like these that make a year on the board of Asset
| Econometrics an unforgettable experience.
Name:
Marije Alblas
Position:
Chairman
Asset | Econometrics
Board 2008-2009
On behalf of the Asset | Econometrics board,
Marije Alblas
Chairman Asset | Econometrics
AON
hai r men o f asset
ass o c iati o ns
an introdu c tion
Asset | Econometrics is not the only association affiliated with the Faculty of Economics and Business Administration
at Tilburg University. Part of faculty association Asset are six associations that focus on a specific field of Economics
and Business Administration. Nekst asked the chairmen of the faculty association and the other five Asset
associations to introduce themselves and elaborate on the differences between their and our association.
In my opinion differences between Asset
and Asset│Econometrics are negligible. I
mean, in the end all study associations do
more or less the same: create surplus value
for its members by organising formal and
informal activities. Furthermore Asset and
Asset│Econometrics are part of the same
Faculty Association. Maybe there is a small
difference in active members. Compared
to Asset│Econometrics, whereas active
members are with the association during
their whole studies, the lapse in active
members is bigger by Asset.
A quick inquiry amongst our active
members about the topic on hand,
differences between Asset | TOP-DOWN
– study association for strategy and
logistics – and Asset | Econometrics,
resulted in some spicy remarks. Apart
from our dissimilar specialism’s, more
daring quotes insinuated different roles
in causing and solving the credit crunch,
or having to work for money versus
swimming in it. But in the end there is at
least one thing in which we find common
ground: doing our utter best to serve the
Tilburg University student.
Fabian Jacobs
Asset
Luuk te Grotenhuis
Asset | TOP-DOWN
The differences between Asset |
Econometrics and Asset | FIRST
International, are mainly represented
by the different types of students. Our
student group are internationally oriented
business and economics students, mostly
seeking a career that is internationally
oriented. The semester abroad and the
great number of international students
in our programmes contribute to this
international environment, which is the
Wouter Bauhuis
main difference between Asset | FIRST
Asset | FIRST International International and Asset | Econometrics.
Thom Rommens
Asset | MA-Tilburg
The difference between Asset | SBIT and
Asset | Econometrics? Never hoped I
would have to say it, but maybe there
are not that many differences! We both
have a blue logo. We are the only Asset
associations with its own bachelor and
master programme and we both deal
with a serious image problem. So I guess
the only difference is that SBIT’ers are
wrongfully accused of being nerds.
Maarten J. van Strien
Asset | SBIT
Koen van de Wiel
Asset | Accounting &
Finance
Although most of the marketers of Asset
| Marketing Association Tilburg loose
themselves into creativity and promotions,
they definitely could use people of Asset
| Econometrics to forecast and evaluate
the effects of it with a fancy econometric
model. Whereas the type of study is really
different, the two associations really
match on sociability within a great group
of members. Apart from their great formal
activities, they prove to be sporty too,
when I became inspired by a volleyball
team of “tristen”!
As the board of a study association you
are at the top of a professional and
dynamic organisation. This counts for
both Asset | Accounting & Finance and
Asset | Econometrics. But what is the exact
difference between the associations?
Maybe this difference can be found in
the fact that econometrics students have
their own place from their first year on.
Our members are students who made
their choice for a specific field of interest.
These fields are Accountancy, Controlling,
Finance, and Investment Theory.
t is an h o n o u r !
interview honorary member
For the third edition of this years’ Nekst, we thought it would be nice to give our readers some insight into the
life of one of our honorary members. Pieter Ruys has been an honorary member of Asset | Econometrics since
2002 and he is very enthusiastic about this. We met a man who has done and still does a lot in his life.
Name:
Pieter Ruys
Membership:
Honorary member
Education
After gaining his gymnasium diploma in 1956,
Pieter Ruys started his course in Economics
at the Katholieke Hogeschool Tilburg, now
known as Tilburg University. He followed
some extra mathematics and econometrics
courses and learned more about mathematics
in the job he did following his education.
When Mr Ruys was at university, things were
not the same as they are today, he says: “The
management of the university was very
different then. There was a senate, consisting
of the professors of the university. Because
of this, the professors also had management
responsibilities.” As a result, there was not a
lot of innovation within the university. During
States, he was just a beginner. He worked
with great economists. There he learned how
to carry out research. He also got to know a
different working atmosphere than he was
used to in the Netherlands. Back then, Dutch
professors were not too enthusiastic about
publishing articles in international journals
and criticising each other in seminars,
contrary to those in the United States. Pieter:
“Fortunately, things have now changed for
the better in the Netherlands, too.” Mr Ruys
thinks it’s a really good idea to study abroad
for a year, because you not only improve your
English, but also learn about different ways
of working.
“Mathematics is the basis
of the growth of all other
sciences.”
the period Pieter was studying, the Law on
University Administration (Dutch: Wet op
het Universitair Bestuur) was accepted. This
meant that a new management structure was
introduced, comparable to the Dutch City
Council. Each council consisted for one third
of professors, one third of supportive staff
and one third of students. Because Pieter was
an assistant-professor at the time, he became
a member of the Council of the Faculty of
Economics.
After his graduation, Mr Ruys went to New York
to gain a PhD degree from the University of
Rochester. At home, he thought he was quite
something, having completed his education
with a drs. degree. But at Rochester University,
one of the best universities in the United
Career
Pieter Ruys’ CV is pretty impressive. He has had
a position on numerous boards and councils.
To mention a few, he has been a member of
the City Council of Tilburg, on the board of
several health care institutes, and a member
of the university council. He was also the first
chairman of the board of the Tilburg section
of the political party D66.
As a scientist, Pieter Ruys also wrote a lot of
articles during his time at university. One of
his favourite topics is the difference between
profit and non-profit organisations and how
to run a non-profit organisation. “Every value
in life has to be managed,” Mr Ruys elaborates.
“When you go on holiday, you have to
arrange a lot of things, like which sunshine
destination you want to go to, but also
who will take care of your mail and who
will water your plants. This belongs to
the management of your holiday and
needs effort. If you do something just
for yourself, like going on holiday, you
only need the effort and money from
yourself. For social or public goods you
need cooperation from others and the
power to raise money or taxes from
the people.” It is in situations like this
that our honorary member discovered
one of the differences between profit
and non-profit organisations. Mr Ruys:
“Profit organisations process private
goods and values. They only need
private power for their organisation.
Non-profit organisations also need
social effort, that is the help of others
to exist or to reach their goals.”
“When you run an organisation,
you have a task. A company always
knows what its task is, because of
the principle of demand and supply.
All companies and consumers are
independent, so they will do what
is best for them and the size of the
production will be given,” Pieter Ruys
explains. Furthermore, he says that it
is not always clear what a non-profit
organisation should do, as it is not
easy for them to find out what people
want. That is why the privatisation of,
for example medical care, might be a
good idea when it concerns marketable
or private services.
Pieter thinks that the biggest difference
for an individual employee between
profit and non-profit organisations
is the difference in satisfaction.
Pieter: “People who work for a profit
organisation eventually value their
jobs by the amount of money they
earn. People who work for the public
good are usually getting additional
satisfaction out of the work they do.”
Honour
Pieter Ruys has been chairman of
the Wim Bogers Stichting ( WBS) for
six years. Therefore, he was granted
honorary membership in 2002. He
always liked being on the board of
the WBS. One of the things he liked
most was seeing the members of the
board of Asset | Econometrics grow
during their year on the board. “At the
beginning of their year on the board,
they were shy young people. But at the
end of the year, they left as confident
men and women.” Pieter Ruys’ task
was to support them and prevent
huge mistakes during their time on
the board. In turn the board members
greatly valued Pieter’s input and hence
he was granted honorary membership.
The fact that Pieter received honorary
membership from people he worked
with so closely, makes him such an
enthusiastic honorary member.
He also says his job has become even
nicer, since he now has the opportunity
to do things he wants to do. He does
not have to spend time on teaching if
he does not want to. This suits him fine
as his favourite part of the job is doing
research.
Despite the fact that he has more
freedom in his work now, Pieter Ruys
still has to write a certain number
of articles in scientific magazines.
He informs us about an article he
is currently working on: sector
governance. In every organisation
there is some form of hierarchy. At the
top, you find the CEO and below, his
managers and below the managers,
other managers. And finally, at the
“Deal with the things you
learn critically.”
Honorary membership of Asset |
Econometrics is not the only reward
Pieter received. In 2005, Mr Ruys
received a Royal distinction from the
hands of the mayor of Tilburg. As a
result, Pieter is now an Officer in the
Order of Oranje-Nassau. The reason for
Pieter being an Officer in this Order is
his contribution to society in terms of
having a position on so many boards
and in councils and the significant
work he has done in the field of
economics.
Retirement
Mr Ruys is seventy years old, which
means he is already retired. However,
Pieter cannot let go of the scientific
world, as he still works at Tilburg
University for two days a week. Pieter:
”Officially it is one day, but in practice
I spend more days on the job.” Pieter
says he is addicted to his work and
that is why he is still active in his work.
bottom of the hierarchy, you find
people in front positions who perform
the services in interaction with the
service receivers, for example the
nurses and doctors in a hospital in
interaction with the patients. They
create the interaction value of the
organisation. Managers at the top
occupy themselves with the money
transactions for the continuity of a
company, while the employees in front
positions supply the real interaction
value, as Mr Ruys calls it. The focus
in an organisation is mostly on
transactions. But, according to Pieter:
“The focus should be on the valuecreating interactions, because after
all, that determines the quality and is
what the organisation was set up for in
the first place.
Mr Ruys further explains: ”Another
result of the focus on the transactions
is a phenomenon we have all heard
of by now: the credit crunch. People
All Options
Apart from working at Tilburg
University, Pieter Ruys also teaches
part-time students at Tias, and
together with his brothers and sister,
he is the owner of a family company, a
combination of a hotel and a theatre.
Of course, Pieter does not only just
work. Every Monday, he goes cycling
with the cycling club. They meet each
other around twelve o’clock and start
off with chatting. Then they start their
tour of forty kilometres through the
countryside of Brabant, with a short
pause for a light lunch. When they
arrive at their destination, they drink
another beer together. Pieter really
enjoys “the culture of Brabant”, as he
calls it. He likes Brabant and does not
want to move back to Zeist, where he
was born, partly because he and his
wife have a lot of friends here and
enjoy their house and its garden.
Since his retirement, Pieter has more
spare time, so he also does some
odd jobs in the house. He and his
wife regularly visit their children and
grandchildren in Amsterdam.
A royal decoration
always thought the market was a free
gift from heaven, and that it would
work anyway.” Pieter says that the
market is a man-made and costly
artefact, which requires special rules of
behaviour, something to which all have
to contribute if they want the system to
survive. “You can compare this with the
survival of the species of ants. In each
colony, there is one queen ant who
lays the eggs, although other female
worker ants are also capable of doing
so. It might be evolutionary profitable
for an individual female to lay eggs,
too, because then she can pass on
her genes. But if she and other worker
ants do so, the colony will fall apart. So
the individual rationality contradicts
the rationality of the species, the socalled rule-rationality. That is why any
worker ant that lays eggs is thrown out
of the colony and the species of ants
has been evolutionary successful for
some 150 million years,” our honorary
member explains.
According to Pieter, the market works
in the same way. It only works if
everyone behaves according to the
rules: that is why a market regulator
is needed. When the CEO’s act only
to receive huge salaries and bonuses,
individual rationality prevails over rulerationality and the system collapses.
Loans were being contracted where
they should not be and the confidence
among banks evaporated. This led to
the credit crunch. Thus, the market
does not work if we only do what is
good for ourselves.
Some advice
At the end of the interview, we asked
Mr Ruys whether he had any good
advice for students. He immediately
mentions: “Deal with the things you
learn critically. Mathematics is really
important for all sciences, because
it builds up a hard core in the body
of knowledge, so we can stand on
the shoulders of our predecessors. It
brings a kind of democracy to science,
because any researcher can add partly
– but possibly deep – insights into
a science that fit into a whole body
of knowledge. So when you start
something, someone else can take it
over the next day and still understand
what you were doing. That is why
mathematics is at the basis of the
growth of most other sciences.” [MB]
11
p r o v i d ing mate r ia l f o r
y o u r st u d ents
opinion poll
At primary school, you had a headmaster who you probably knew well. At secondary school, you may have
known the name of your headmaster and have seen him or her once in a while. Tilburg University also has its
own principal, known as a Rector Magnificus. Philip Eijlander is the Rector Magnificus of Tilburg University.
Ernst & Young
The Rector Magnificus is the most prominent member of the board, responsible for the scientific agenda of
the university. Nekst asked a few of its readers what they would do if they were Rector Magnificus of Tilburg
University.
Dennis Jaheruddin [second year student]
If I were Rector Magnificus of Tilburg University, I would use
any means necessary to realise the ultimate goal: making
all trains stop at Tilburg West again. Obviously, until now
any attempt has failed miserably, therefore it is time for an
entirely new approach, in which several faculties need to
cooperate in order to succeed.
First of all, the Faculty of Law needs to ensure that all the
heat will be taken off the University and all the blame is
put on the Netherlands Railways. When that is taken care
of, the Faculty of Economics and Business Administration is
put to work to provide an optimal sacrifice pattern that will
minimise the time it will take to persuade the Netherlands
Railways. Then the Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences
organises a public event near the station to attract as much
media as possible. And last but not least, the Faculty of
Catholic Theology supplies voluntary martyrs to slow the
trains down by blocking their path. This way the Netherlands
Railways will be under so much social pressure that within a
week, all the trains will stop at Tilburg West again.
Tim van der Molen Kuipers [freshman]
If I were Rector Magnificus of Tilburg University, I would
improve the accessibility of the university. It is great that
there is a cycle path between the city and the university, but
it would be better if it didn’t have any potholes.
It took me a while to come up with something that I would
do if I were Rector Magnificus. Of course, this question is
quite hard to answer when you have only been a student
for six months. But something else I thought about is more
relaxed working spaces. This is a thing that companies are
also working on. So no office chairs and desks and deadly
silence, but more comfortable chairs and rooms with a more
modern look. There are a lot of universities that are working
on this, so I wonder why Tilburg isn’t. Companies think that
these kinds of working spaces improve the creativity of their
employees, so I think that it would also be a big improvement
for the university.
Whitney Pattinaja [second year student]
If I were Rector Magnificus, I would provide enough areas in
which to study. Before an exam period, a lot of students study
in the library and in the Cobbenhagen building. I often hear
students complaining that it is too crowded in some study
areas. Consequently, it is much harder to concentrate and
this can eventually affect study results. As Rector Magnificus,
you want the best for all your students and most of all, you
want Tilburg University to have a good name. Therefore, I
would build more areas where students can study quietly or
assign places where this is possible. I know it will take a lot of
effort to achieve this goal, but it will bring the university a lot
of benefits. You will satisfy the students and they will work
and study with more pleasure at the university. Eventually,
Tilburg University will be seen as a university that upholds
the statement: students first. Is that not what you want as a
Rector Magnificus? |
13
r a b the o pp o r t u nit y
t o l ea r n
B usiness interview c bs
For this business interview we travelled by train and the new Randstad shuttle to get to our destination: the
brand new building of Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) in The Hague. Here we were introduced to
Michael Polder, Statistical Researcher at CBS. He told us about his studies, his career and his work at Statistics
Netherlands.
Name:
Michael Polder
Statistics Netherlands, known as the CBS in the
Netherlands, was founded in 1899. From that
moment the CBS grew enormously, starting
with five employees and having about 1000
employees in 1941. After two world wars
and an economic crisis in the thirties, the
demand for statistical data increased and the
institute became more and more important
for the Netherlands. Nowadays, the CBS has
a staff of about 2500 people and has offices
in The Hague and Heerlen. The company has
the task to collect and develop data with the
intention of publishing statistics that can be
useful in, for example, the fields of science
and policy-making in politics.
Michael Polder started working at the CBS in
April, 2005. At the time he was finishing his
PhD research and became acquainted with
Age:
the CBS through one of his promoters, who
worked there. The CBS was the first company
31
to offer Michael the certainty of a job he liked
and a good salary, and he obviously feels
Position:
happy with his job, as he has been there for
Statistical Researcher almost four years now.
From econometrician to PhD to…
As a child, it is highly unlikely you would say
you wanted to become an econometrician.
At secondary school, Michael Polder did not
know what he wanted to study. He chose
to study Econometrics because it included
the two subjects he was most interested in:
mathematics and economics. Already living
in Rotterdam, he decided to study there, too.
He started his Econometrics course at the
Erasmus University in 1995 and tells us that
it was a good decision: “I am glad I studied
Econometrics. You learn to develop a certain
way of thinking, to describe and analyse
data.” In addition to studying, he was an
active member of the student association
‘Econometrisch Dispuut’, the association for
econometricians from Rotterdam, where he
was responsible for the lay-out of the Medium
Econometrische Toepassingen (a magazine
for econometricians in Rotterdam).
After his graduation in 2000, Michael
specialised in econometric methods. He also
applied these in his PhD thesis, written whilst
at the University of Maastricht. In the course
of analysing investments and a company’s
demand for labour, he saw some resemblance
between the processes of the two variables.
In his thesis, which is called ‘Non-linear
investment and labour demand dynamics’, he
researched the relationship between these
two variables. In 2005, he gained his title as
Doctor of Philosophy and started working
at the CBS. Looking back on his student
life, Michael gives us the following advice:
“Whatever you can learn whilst you are
student, grab the opportunity and learn it.”
Statistical Researcher at the CBS
The CBS is a well-known institute with a lot
of career opportunities. The backgrounds of
the people who work there vary enormously.
However, Michael thinks that the majority of
the employees are economists. His position
as statistical researcher at the CBS is quite
exceptional. Michael Polder: “Most of my
work involves doing quantitative research.
Together with a group of colleagues, I try to
find causal links between different variables.”
He tells us that the research is divided into
different stages, the first stage being a study
of the literature about the variables. In the
second stage the research group decides on
an appropriate model. Then they apply data
to estimate the model and try to interpret the
estimates. The result is then reported to the
institute that requested the research.
14
Michael has done a lot of research in
the four years he has been working for
Statistics Netherlands. At the moment
he is working at the department of
Science and Technology, on an analysis
concerning the productivity of firms.
The aim of his research is to try to find a
relationship between the productivity
of a firm and, for example, its Research
& Development, IT and innovation,
the last of which entails using new
methods. In order to develop a proper
model and estimate it, Michael uses
a lot of econometric methods and
regression analysis. Therefore, he
uses programmes such as SPSS and
Microsoft Excel, but he personally
prefers Stata, which is a generic tool.
Michael about his experiences at the
CBS: “I have learned a lot over the
past four years. However, the ability
to produce concrete results in a short
period of time is the most important
thing I have learned at the CBS.”
The CBS has two offices and they are
both located in the Netherlands, but
the company has an international
character as well. Michael tells us
that once every few months he goes
abroad for a meeting. Recently he was
in Paris for a meeting about similar
research that had been carried out in
the countries that are a member of
the ‘Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’ (OECD).
During the meetings, the researchers
of OECD discuss whether or not the
same trends can be discerned in
these countries. Colleagues of Michael
often visit Luxemburg for meetings
concerning Eurostat. This is the CBS
for Europe, as it were. During these
meetings, the methods of collecting
and developing data are discussed:
“We answer the following question:
Are we using the same methods for
measuring and collecting data in all
the European countries? If not, then
we cannot issue correct statements
about the statistics of Europe.”
Working at the Central Statistical
Office
As a statistical researcher you have a
36 hour working week. This does not
mean you have to be at the office all
the time. There is the possibility of
working at home and getting your
work done in 36 hours or less. So the
length of a working week can differ.
According to Michael: “It is about
making enough progression. There
are tasks that have to be fulfilled
within a week and when you plan
your work well, getting the tasks done
within 36 hours is achievable.” Besides
one’s regular work, it is also possible
to follow some courses at the CBS,
for example, there is one about the
National Accounts. This is the official
overview of all the statistics in the
Dutch economy. If you want to take any
other courses necessary for your job,
you can discuss the possibilities with
your manager. “For an econometrician
it is, for example, a good idea to follow
a management course. During your
econometrics course you do not learn
much about management, but I can
recommend it to every student who is
looking to combine management with
econometrics.”
Starting at CBS after your time as a
student
When you start at a company having
left university, it is like going to a
new school all over again. You are in
a different environment, with strange
people that you call your colleagues.
To make your start at the CBS more
comfortable, the CBS offers newcomers
the possibility to join activities
organised by the so-called Introstiek.
“It can be compared to what a student
association does for students. Introstiek
organises activities for employees who
have been working at the CBS for less
than four years. Paintball, drinks and
visits to other companies are examples
of these activities. It is a good way to
get to know not only the colleagues
that you work with, but also the people
that work at different departments.”
Another way to increase the interaction
between the staff is the new building,
in which the CBS has been housed
since August, 2008. Michael Polder: “I
experience it positively.” The building
does not have closed offices like the
old one, but every department has
open-plan offices. “Now you have
direct contact with the people who
work at the same department you
do and in my opinion this benefits
the working atmosphere.” After the
interview we walked through the new
building, decorated with a lot art, and
we saw that there were also several
coffee corners, where everyone has
the opportunity to meet one another.
Michael: “It is all designed to increase
interaction.”
Michael Polder in the future
Looking at his future, Michael Polder
does not really know where he will
work in the future. “What I hope is
that I will be able to keep working on
interesting subjects with a scientific
character. Whether this will be as a
project manager, leading the research,
or still as a researcher, I do not know
yet.” What he does know is that he
wants to do research, the result of
which can be used for policy making.
“This could be at an institute more
directed to policy making, but also
working at a university again is an
option in the future.” However, he also
keeps in mind the possibility that he
might still be working for the CBS.
Michael concludes the interview with
the following comment: “I like my job
as a statistical researcher. Besides, the
CBS offers a lot of opportunities. Even
working at a different department is
like having a new job!” [WP]
15
u es , g r een ta b l es an d
coloured balls
w h y is the r e n o n o b e l p r i z e in
mathemati c s ?
F reshmen a c tivity
c olumn
Wednesday 3 December, 2008, the day a new freshmen activity was organised by the Freshmen committee
of Asset | Econometrics. It was the second integration activity, especially for freshmen and second year
students.
Since I had been living in Tilburg for several
weeks, this was an excellent opportunity to
participate in this pool tournament and in
this way get to know other econometrics
students better.
Name:
Joris van Toor
Age:
19
Begin studies:
2007
After I had picked up Mark van Doorn at
Tilburg Central Station, we headed for the
pool centre 4Friends. We arrived at the
centre fifteen minutes late, but since the
tournament had not yet begun it did not
matter. After subscribing and receiving
drinks tokens, we started looking for some
cues and a pool table, which we found rather
fast for obvious reasons, to prepare ourselves
for the tournament. At first I was surprised by
the way I was playing. I actually saw the balls
disappear into the black holes! So for the first
half an hour of the evening my confidence
level soared.
With this feeling of confidence I was, together
with the other participants, asked to gather
around the committee who had organised
the evening. They told us about the way the
evening had been planned and we were all
linked to another student to form teams. The
committee tried to link us in such a way that
each freshman was linked to a second year
student. The committee linked me to Frank
(if I remember correctly), who seemed to me
to be a decent player. My gut feeling was
right as he immediately outperformed our
opponents. Unfortunately, after some lucky
balls the other couple managed to defeat
us, resulting in our first loss. Sadly but true,
this match was to be our best match of the
evening.
In the next round, we faced two other
Econometrics students. Frank and I were
confident we would defeat them. The
opposite, however, was true. As compensation,
we allowed ourselves to take a small break
and treated ourselves to a drink to regain our
courage. We had to play our last game at ‘the
losers table’. Despite the drink and the nice
chat we had had, it didn’t work out. We played
the worst game of the evening and we lost all
our games: true losers we are! We concluded
that we did not have the talent we had hoped
for. We jealously watched the final, which was
an interesting game. The winning team won a
bottle of Tilburg’s finest: Schrobbeler.
The evening came to an end and I made
up the balance. One goal, winning the pool
tournament, turned out to be an impossible
mission. The other goal, getting to know other
econometric students in an informal way, was
successfully fulfilled. Despite the frustration
of my own playing, it was a pleasant and
enjoyable evening. I will certainly participate
in any activities organised by Asset |
Econometrics in the future, as long as they
have nothing to do with cues, green tables
and coloured balls! |
Alfred Nobel is not a friend of us: there is neither a Nobel Prize in Mathematics nor in Economics. Was Alfred
Nobel a fool?
Alfred Nobel was a Swedish chemist
who invented dynamite. The idea of the
endowment for the famous prizes came to
Nobel when he read an erroneous publication
in 1888 of a premature obituary of Nobel by
a French newspaper. The obituary stated
“Le marchand de la mort est mort” (“The
merchant of death is dead”) and went on to
say, “Dr. Alfred Nobel, who became rich by
finding ways to kill more people faster than
ever before, died yesterday”. Trying to prevent
that this would be the way he was going to
be remembered by future generations, Alfred
Nobel established his famous prize.
There are Nobel Prizes in five specific
disciplines: Physics, Chemistry, Physiology
or Medicine, and Literature. That means
Mathematicians, Geoscientists, Bioscientists,
Astronomers,
Economists,
Sociologists,
Psychologists and others are left with empty
hands. Economists were smart (and rich)
enough to establish the ‘Sveriges Riksbank
Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of
Alfred Nobel’. Given that it is such a mouthful
of words, everyone simply calls it the ‘Nobel
Prize in Economics’. And that is exactly
what Economists have been hoping for: the
prestige of the Nobel Prize in Economics is
derived from its association with the actual
Nobel Prizes. Many people, such as greatgrandnephew Peter Nobel, are mad about
it and advocate that the Prize in Economics
should be abolished.
Now it is perfectly understandable that Alfred
Nobel did not endow a prize to Economists.
To quote Ronald Reagan, Economists are the
sort of people who see something works
in practice and wonder if it would work in
theory. Not the kind of scientists that deserve
such an important prize. Alfred Nobel did not
understand too much of Economics anyway:
he insisted that his capital should be fully
invested in safe securities. Clearly, that is not
the optimal investment strategy given the
long investment horizon of his endowment.
The endowment would have been a multiple
of the current one had it been invested in
a diversified stock portfolio rather than in
government bonds.
But why did Alfred Nobel not award a prize
to Mathematicians? Well, your columnist
conducted some research and found some
juicy gossip: there is a woman involved in
that story (see: John E. Morrill, “Nobel Prize
in Mathematics”, American Mathematical
Monthly, December 1995). The persistent
rumor, based on somewhat weak evidence,
is that Alfred Nobel did not endow a prize in
mathematics because his mistress also had
an affair with a mathematician, Gösta MittagLeffler. Nobel was well known for hating
Mittag-Leffler, and wanted to prevent at all
costs that Mittag Leffler would receive any of
his money through a prize in Mathematics.
Name:
Roel Mehlkopf
Position:
PhD student
So, that is the sad story of the Nobel prize
in Mathematics. It never got there because
of ordinary jealousy. And the woman they
were quarreling over was not even pretty.
The poetic mathematician William Dunham
ended his poem ‘For whom Nobel tolls’ with
the words:
Now, Nobel’s behavior may be a disgrace
Yet wouldn’t the world be an even worse place
Had his lover’s purported tryst
Been, instead, with a … pacifist? |
The winning team
16
17
o ng l i v e the pi z z a !
living in lodges
The Nekst committee’s eye fell on a freshman again for this edition, as we wanted to know what Anouk van
doubtful about her answer. Anouk: “I
like the freedom and responsibilities I
have as a student, but I also enjoyed
the stress-free life I had at secondary
school, without all the pressure. When
we ask Anouk about Tilburg, she thinks
her room is well-located because
the neighbourhood is quiet and the
Westermarkt shopping centre and
University are close by. “It would be
nice if Vidar were closer to home “, says
Anouk. The main complaint about her
way of life in Almere is that she had
to cycle a long way get into town. The
reason she chose Tilburg is that she
wanted to live in digs. This is almost
impossible in Amsterdam, where most
of her secondary school friends went.
Asking about the future, she says she
is pleased a good friend is coming to
live at her house. Hence, she does not
have plans to leave her room in the
near future.
Spanje’s life is like here in Tilburg, having left her roots in Almere (instead of Spain, which is what we initially
thought) in August 2008. So we decided to pay her a visit and have dinner with this busy student who lives
in the Hieronymusstraat.
We arrived at Anouk’s home around
dinner time. We immediately noticed that
her house is located above a pub and in
the neighbourhood of several fast-food
restaurants. Anouk tells us she quite often
orders from these restaurants, mainly because
she is so busy and has such an active social
life here in Tilburg.
Name:
Anouk van Spanje
Begin studies:
2008
Address:
Hieronymusstraat 1
Surface:
15 m 2
Monthly rent:
295 euros
Another thing we immediately noticed is that
she lives in a multi-cultural student’s house:
two of her housemates come from abroad.
One is from Venezuela and one is from the
Dutch-Indies. Interesting note; Anouk herself
is quarter-part Indonesian. There are also two
Dutch students living in her house. Anouk
likes living where she is at the moment. To
start with she found it difficult to live in a
painted it. A large window makes the room
very light.
Anouk rarely eats together with her
housemates because she does not have much
time; perhaps once a week. She also told us
that she prefers to let other people cook for
her (despite the fact she is on the Cookery
Committee of the students’ association Vidar).
Her weekly meal schedule is already half
organised as she eats with some of her fellowstudents every Monday and with her friends
from Vidar every Tuesday. On other days her
main aim is to keep it simple. We immediately
notice what her choice of favourite dishes is.
Her favourites are, namely, pasta and oven
dishes. Hence, it was not surprising that
we were served a delicious oven dish. She
“Sponge cakes are also ver y
handy and taste great!”
house where the main language is English,
but now she’s used to it and enjoys it. About
her housemates; Anouk could not think of
anything at all that annoyed her. Even when
she arrived back late from a party once
and adopted her cute grin, nothing really
annoying happened.
When we arrived at her house, we also noticed
that there is a large joint roof terrace, which
is great in the summer. We entered her room
and saw that is was surprisingly clean. Anouk
immediately forbids us to call the colour of
her room orange, as it is salmon coloured
and she should know because she recently
concludes the conversation on this subject
with a very student-like one-liner: “Long live
pizza!”
We also learned some special student-like
tricks for breakfasts. Anouk: “Eating bread
takes too long and I prefer to sleep as long
as possible.” Instead of bread, rice waffles
with peanut butter is quicker and tastier,
according to Anouk. “Sponge cakes are also
very handy and taste great”, Anouk adds.
Talking about reasons why she does not cook
very often, we found out that Anouk has
several hobbies. As mentioned before, she is
18
A n o u k ’s r o o m
member of Vidar. Although Anouk is the
youngest member, she acts as interim
praeses (chairman) of the introductory
club of this association. This club, that
was founded this academic year, is
called ‘Lieve Lust’. We found out that
she started the club together with
twelve fellow members from her first
year at Vidar. Anouk also told us that
she spends every Tuesday evening
with the members of this society, in
their hangout ‘Slagroom’, which can
be found on Piusplein. Of course,
the female members occasionally
undertake some additional special
activities together.
Dutch championships. In the past, she
practiced gymnastics approximately
sixteen hours a week. However, partly
due to an injury, she does not practice
quite so much anymore. Nevertheless,
gymnastics is one of the main reasons
that Anouk goes back to her parents’
house in Almere every weekend:
every Friday she herself trains and
every Saturday she teaches a class
of gymnasts in the selection. Anouk
also teaches in additional classes for
secondary school students called
‘Ready to school’. She spends two to
four hours a week doing this and really
enjoys it.
Another of her main hobbies Anouk
told us about is gymnastics. When
she was only fifteen years old, she
came third in her age group at the
When we asked Anouk whether she
prefers studying in Tilburg or her
life as a pupil at secondary school
in Almere, she definitely seemed
Of course, as an Econometrics’ student,
we asked Anouk about her experiences
with the course so far. Anouk went
through a period when she doubted
whether she would continue her
course, but she has now decided she is
will finish it. She thought about other
courses, but has no idea what else she
could do. She likes the econometrics
course and also most of the students
who are on it. As mentioned, she is a
member of a nice club with her friends
from her course. Coincidentally, they
were all in her TIK group.
Concluding the interview, we want to
add that the house Anouk lives in is
a very pleasant place to be. We had a
fun evening and a nice dinner there,
so we want to thank Anouk for her
hospitality! [ TB]
19
w H A T T O DO A S A FUtUR E
E CO N O M E T R I C I A N ?
o R I E N TAT I O N & i N F O R M AT I O N D AY
When starting a course in Econometrics, the expectation of what a future job will hold for you is at best vague.
Therefore, Asset | Econometrics organises events like the Orientation & Information Day (OID). A day in which,
Flow Traders
as a freshman, you witness two company presentations, an orientation debate between several companies, an
information session and as if that is not enough, a case study presented by Ruud Hendrickx.
The day started with opening speeches by
both the chairman of the OID Committee and
the guest speaker, Goos Kant. After these I
attended a presentation by SNS REAAL, which
I experienced as being very enlightening. The
speakers elaborated on the beginning of the
current financial crisis: the housing market in the
United States. Furthermore they clarified some of
the problems within the banking industry. This
made it clear that, for example, the price of risk
had been miscalculated. The odd thing about this
is that the models that were designed and used
by econometricians give the wrong information
and are thus virtually useless. This will give us a
whole new opportunity to develop models. After
all, was it not the great depression that led to the
Keynesian idea of the economy? An idea that is
largely followed by politicians in the present-day
crisis.
The second presentation I attended was given
by a representative of TNO. TNO is an instate
that works on several projects. Examples are the
introduction of the ‘chipknip’, a credit card for
public transportation and the implementation of
glass fibre. The latter was especially highlighted
in the presentation, in which it was explained that
the difficulty with the implementation of glass
fibre lies in balancing both the long term cost
(after all, it is more costly to implement glass fibre
on different occasions) and the short term cost,
because ‘consumers’ will not pay for something
they are not going to use. TNO is specialised in
consultancy for companies, thus resulting in a
high level of interaction with direct clients.
In the orientation debate, presented by Henk
Norde, we really gained insight in the prospects
of working as an econometrician. There
were representatives of several areas within
Econometrics, the economic models, finance and
logistic areas. The different companies answered
several questions; an interesting question was the
question about the amount of money spent on IT.
The answer to this question was that, especially
as a starter, you can easily spend as much as 90
percent of your time working on the computer.
Another question that rose was whether any of
the participants regretted their choice to study
Econometrics. Even though the answer to this
question is probably biased, after all they are
active in the field of Econometrics, they were
very positive. One interesting comment was that
there is a lack of a broad business perspective
within the courses of Econometrics.
After attending the orientation debate, students
were divided according to the year they started
their courses, to participate in a workshop that
included networking and soft skill training. You
could also attend either a master’s or a bachelor’s
information meeting. The information about the
bachelor was presented by Henk Norde. In this
presentation we were given an overview of the
course years to follow and told that these would
focus more and more on different sectors within
Econometrics.
Name:
Tycho Speekenbrink
Begin studies:
2008
As freshmen we ended with the case presentation,
presented by Ruud Hendrickx. The case was
about the Settlers of Tilburg, where the objective
was to gain as much money as possible. Prior to
the case, several mechanisms were explained. As
a result, different actions could be undertaken:
descending, ascending, closed bid, closed bid
where the winner had to pay the bid of the second
highest bidder and bidding where everyone
had to pay the amount they had as a closed bid
(which, by the way, resulted in everybody making
an bid of zero). Since we all started with the same
amount of capital, one group’s gain was the loss
of another’s.
This was the first time I had attended an event
like this and I am glad I went: as a freshman, it
gives you an opportunity to get a better view of
what you can do as an econometrician. A day like
this makes the things you learn more concrete
and therefore, perhaps, even more interesting! |
21
o w sh o u l d we d ete r mine
our future?
S pe c ial : another introdu c tion to probability theory
By the time this magazine arrives in your mailbox, all the freshmen will probably have taken their exam in
the more interesting. Around 1725,
mathematicians were trying to set up
proper tables with life expectancies
and the financial structures of
companies and governments also
changed completely. For example, the
British government financed itself by
selling life annuities.
Not much later, normal distribution
was introduced by Adam de Moivre,
together with the concept of standard
deviation.
the course ‘Introduction to probability theory’ and all the other students will most definitely remember the
course Statistics for EOR (Dutch: Schatten & Toetsen). Some of you might have thought:“why do I have to learn
this?” or “who makes such distributions?.” This article will introduce you to a different angle of approach to
probability theory and statistics, but contrary to your courses and teachers, it will not explain the subject,
but will answer your other question: why?
Part of the answer to this why lies in
human nature. Since the beginning of
time we have been interested in our
future, in predicting it or even trying to
influence future events. Think of the old
Greeks and Romans with their oracles,
gods and sacrifices. Up till today, there
are still several religions that claim
that there is some sort of power or
god that influences your faith. Science
does not question any of these beliefs
and is often unable to produce other
explanations. As you have learned from
your courses in statistics: it is not easy
to predict the future for single events,
people or life (your expectations are
not reliable), but for big events or
numbers of people, your predictions
might be pretty accurate, think of the
weather, for example. Since we all are
curious as to what is going to happen
next, we use the techniques we have at
our disposal to determine our future
(within a certain confidence interval).
Faith, luck or chance?
Of course, you would like to know where
those techniques come from. Another
part of the answer can be found in an
ancient and famous leisure activity:
the mystery of gambling. Evidence has
been found that in Classical Antiquity,
the Romans had their own kind of
gambling games. However, it was not
until the Enlightenment that scientists
found the first answer to one of the
many questions about gambling,
besides “It is the will of God!” You
might even say that we needed to be
in a period of Enlightenment before
we could think of any other kinds of
answers. We had already invented the
art of printing, how to build aqueducts
and we have all heard of Pythagoras
and Archimedes.
In order to develop probability
theories, we needed more ratios in
our civilisation and culture. After
the Middle Ages people had more
individual responsibility and had to
make more complex decisions over
longer periods of time (think of the
global trade). In the seventeenth
century, it was Chevalier de Méré, a
French nobleman who loved both
maths and gambling, who challenged
the French mathematician, Blaise
Pascal, to solve a puzzle (in 1654, to
be precise). The question was: how
to divide the stakes of an unfinished
game of chance between two players,
when one of them is ahead? Pascal
started to correspond with his friend,
Pierre de Fermat, about his puzzle.
They found an answer and, moreover, it
was the basis of what you are learning
in your classes and what you use if
you try to analyse a gambling game.
The starting point for Pascal and De
Fermat was that the division should
not depend so much on the history of
the part of the interrupted game that
actually took place, as on the possible
22
ways the game might have continued,
had it not been interrupted. They used
combinatorics and expectation values
for a number of players, in order to
divide the stakes.
Beyond gambling
The concepts of Pascal and De Fermat
implied that people – when making
decisions – could take the risk into
account. In Classical Antiquity people
managed to make complex decisions,
but did not yet understand the
concept of risk. In fact, the word ‘risk’
comes from the Italian word risicare,
which means ‘to dare’. So thanks to
Pierre de Fermat
Blaise Pascal
Pascal and De Fermat, we can now
decide whether we dare to make a
certain decision. As result, in the 1630s
we already had some form of stock
exchange in Amsterdam and were also
known for our tulip bubble, which burst
as a result of the issuing of options,
the essential features of which were
identical to the sophisticated financial
instruments in use today (Bernstein,
1996).
Luckily, history does not stop with
Pascal and De Fermat. By 1703, Jacob
Bernoulli had come up with the Law
of Large Numbers and methods of
statistical sampling. This law was
actually the result of a comment made
by Godfried von Leibnitz. He told
Bernoulli that “nature has established
patterns originating in the return of
events, but only for the most part...”
These final words actually incorporate
the concept of risk and variability; there
is some part in life and events that you
cannot predict and this makes it all
Decision Making
Then another Bernoulli arrived on the
statistical playground, Jacob’s nephew,
Daniel Bernoulli. Instead of coming
up with some sort of distribution or
another numbers law, he defined a
systematic process by which most
people tend to make choices. One
of his influential ideas was that “the
satisfaction resulting from any small
increase in wealth will be inversely
proportionate to the quantity of goods
previously possessed.” In other words,
Bernoulli explained why people are
risk-averse and why prices must drop
if customers are to be persuaded to
buy more.
We mentioned that the British
government financed themselves
through selling life annuities. This
was introduced by a minister who was
very good at maths and working with
numbers, Thomas Baynes. He has shown
us how to combine old numbers and
information to make new information
and how to adjust our judgment if new
events occur.
Francis Galton’s regression to the
mean, from 1875. This regression to the
mean implies that one makes decisions
based on the expectation that things
will return to normal. He also includes
Harry Markowitz’ contribution from
1952. He showed why you should
spread your risks and why you should
not put all your eggs into one basket.
Continuity
Most of these theories take into account
discrete events and variables. We had
to wait until the twentieth century
before statistics really incorporated
continuous variables and combined
these with stochastic processes. The
foundations were laid by Andrey
Nikolaevich Kolmogorov, who used the
sample space and measure theory for
an axiom system. We still use his results,
like for example in the probability that
you will pass your exams for Statistics
for EOR or Modelling in Practice (Dutch:
Zelfstandig Modelleren) is the sum
of the probability that you will pass
Statistics for EOR and the probability
that you will pass Modelling in Practice,
minus the probability that you will pass
both courses. Another reasoning that
followed from the Axiom system is the
probability that you will not continue
reading this issue of Nekst is one
minus the probability that you will. Of
course, we will hope you will continue
reading and we would like to add that
our introduction to the probability
theory is far from complete, but we
hope to have answered some of your
questions. [MGS]
Sources
The developments we describe above
all took place in time span of a century
and are, according to Peter Bernstein,
the basis for the risk management and
analysis of decision making we know
today. He does, however, add two more
developments. First of all, he mentions
Peter Bernstein (1996), Against the Gods
Stichting Histos, http://www.stichtinghistos.nl/
23
l l in !
the passion of frank van dijk
Some may think that econometricians spend their precious time on earth studying things that are of no use
since Frank bases most of his success
on it: “read lots of books about poker
theory and strategy, especially the
chances of your drawing hands.”
whatsoever. But Frank Steenbergen proves them wrong. He applies his analytical skills, acquired during his
three years as a student of Econometrics, to poker and he thinks that these really give players an advantage
in the card game.
One may reply now that it is all about chance.
Many people would agree, including the
Dutch government. That is why online poker
is restricted to play money. Casinos are the
only organisation legislated to organise
poker games, but these are controlled by the
government.
Name:
Frank van Dijk 1
Age:
21
Begin studies:
2006
Research carried out by
professor Van
der Genugten and others supports Frank’s
view on poker. They have focused their
experiments at Tilburg University on finding
the answer to whether poker is only about
chance or whether other factors also play a
role. Since they need experienced players for
their research, Frank was asked to contribute
his knowledge to their models to make them
more realistic. Ranking all possible pre-flop
hands was one of the problems he had to
face and as one can imagine, this takes an
enormous amount of time (possibilities). For
anyone who is interested in details, a good
article about this research can be found in the
recently published Economatrixxx Almanac.
Like most of us, Frank started playing poker
for fun with a couple of friends in 2006. When
some of them received their first prizes after
winning free online poker tournaments, Frank
followed their call and entered the online
community, which has grown enormously in
the past years: the total revenue of online
poker rose from $34 million in 2003 to $100
million in 2006.
Online, Frank improved his skills and
developed a passion for poker. Contrary
to other card games, there is no repetition
and each round is completely different: “No
one knows the opponents’ hands. What are
my chances? How will they react to my bet?
What will flop?” Frank was interested in the
challenge and so he began to explore the
world of poker. Up till now, he has won several
tournaments online and has also tried his
skill in the casino. However, Frank says: “In the
casino a player is faced with problems that
differ from the ones encountered online.” In
front of a screen you can bite off all your nails
and be very emotional, but when you are faceto-face with other players this gives away
too much information. So the psychological
component gains more importance and he
is not very experienced in this yet. Frank
normally fixes his eyes on one point of the
table so that opponents can’t see what he’s
thinking. In contrast to this he has certainly
mastered online poker.
10% Rule:
When your drawing hand is a
pair, there is a chance of 10%
that you will get a three of a
kind in the end.
Pre-flop is already a routine for him:
considering his position (his seat with
regard to the dealer button, which is very
important), his hand and the opponents’ bets
are natural things for him to do. Once there
is a flop, he starts his analysis. At that point,
his experience comes in very handy: Frank
compares the hand he is holding with past
hands that were either the same or at least
very similar and considers the way in which
he and his opponents reacted. Since he has
already spent quite a bit of time online,
he knows some of the players and their
behaviour. (Nice gimmick: ”Online, you can
add notes to opponents so that you do not
have to remember things yourself.”) Beginners
soon give themselves away, although no one
A showdown between two players
knows in advance that they are ‘raw
meat’. In a casino, other opponents
often know this by your appearance
and your behaviour. In online poker
you have to look for different things.
Frank has observed that opponents
seem to love flushes (five cards of
the same kind) and that they only
bet if they have high cards, although
he thinks that low drawing hands in
particular can be very profitable in the
end: “who would expect you to have a
street of 3 to 7, when the flop is 3, 5,
7 unsuited (not the same colour) and
you put in a high raise?” Players tend to
suspect you of bluffing and try to beat
you with their weak hands. Contrary to
what everyone thinks, beginners are
not always free lunch for advanced
players. Frank says that he often
has difficulties understanding their
strategies, since low-skilled players
are very unpredictable and irrational.
Nevertheless, one can say that players
like Frank are of course more successful.
They normally squeeze more profit
out of their good hands and lose less
with their bad hands. For instance,
beginners usually want to see the flop
and Frank knows when it is best to
1
24
drop out. Furthermore, he has become
more familiar with so-called “bankroll
management”. He knows how much he
can afford to bet in a round (most of
the time the current bet is based on
the stack, which is the money that has
already been bet), how much of the
last prize he won he can spend on new
games and when he should stop. This
knowledge is crucial when it comes
to real money –especially for poker
games with high blinds (starting bet).
Frank’s reading
recommendation for
beginners:
- Poker for Dummies
- The Complete Idiot’s Guide
to Poker
For all the beginners among us, Frank
has some very important advice. “Start
with low blind games and only slowly
increase as you get to know the game
better. Never get too excited when
you have a lucky streak (it may end
faster than you expect) and do not
overestimate yourself.” Furthermore,
Even Frank still needs to improve. He
admits that he is too curious and often
just calls bets only to find out what
the opponent’s hand is. He is never
very happy when he loses, especially
if it is to a bad drawing hand. He then
he tries to make up for his loss and
bluffs a lot. This is one of the things
everyone should be aware of: never
be too emotional when playing poker
and always base your decisions on
facts rather than on emotions. It is also
important to control the amount of
time you spend on poker and whether
it is for fun or whether it is becoming
obsessive. Frank experienced a
situation like this a year ago when
he was on the verge of addiction. He
realised that he became angrier about
losing than happy about winning. He
only played poker to kill time, but it
barely excited him. Then he did what
everyone should do in that kind of
situation: he stopped playing until he
was sure that he could play reasonably.
Frank has always been convinced that
meeting friends and going out is more
fun, so it was not hard for him to quit,
but not everyone is that lucky.
In general, he says that poker will
never be more than a hobby for him.
Of course, professionals win millions in
international competitions, but it is a
zero-sum game and not productive at
all. Frank wants to create, not just take
from others – that is why he studies
Econometrics. [ TD]
Due to privacy reasons Frank van Dijk is not the real name of the person interviewed.
25
“
he r e d o p r o f ess o r s
c o me f r o m ? ”
Column
IMC
Each year the American Economic Association organises a massive
job market for economists. The demand side of this market consists
of the numerous economics and finance departments that have vacant positions. To give you an idea, in 2007 about 1900 vacancies
were posted at the organising website. Most of the departments
that are recruiting are American, from top places like Harvard or
No, it are not storks Chicago
who bring
them. places
Unlessinyou
big birdsOnly
that
are flying in people from over the
to smaller
the mean
middlethe
of nowhere.
a small
number of European universities are involved. As you may have exTilburg
is in the
game. quite an important share of FEB-members are not Dutch. Time
world. Indeed, as youpected,
may have
noticed
already,
The supply side of the job market consists of fresh PhD economists
to reveal some insidewho
information
are desperately
on the
seeking
wayfor
in an
which
academic
manyjob.
ofIyour
couldjunior
not findprofessors
an
have been selected.
exact number for the supply side, but it must be large given that in
Each year the Americanthe
Economic
US aloneAssociation
about 1000 PhD’s
in theare
USgranted
in early January.
each year.
This And
year, it
a delegation
are not of
organises a massive job market
The
fourteen
FEB-recruiters
was sent to Bush’s no go area
only for
US economists.
trained economists
that enter
the market.
demand side of this market Since
consistsstrategic
of the numerous
interactions
Sanamong
Francisco.
multiple
Quite a players
wonderfulare
experience
involved,
by the
economics and finance departments
the whole
thatjunior
have vacant
job market
way,
can
given
be that
considered
it was onlyasa fortnight
a gigantic
before
game.
Obama’s
positions. To give you an idea,
2007 about
1900complex
inauguration.
It is in
moreover
a very
one because it involves a lot of uncervacancies were posted at tainty
the organising
and private
website.
information. Departments can never be sure that
Most of the departments that are recruiting are
American, from top places like Harvard or Chicago to
smaller places in the middle of nowhere. Only a small
number of European universities are involved. As you
may have expected, Tilburg is in the game.
The supply side of the job market consists of fresh
PhD economists who are desperately seeking for an
academic job. I could not find an exact number for the
supply side, but it must be large given that in the US
alone about 1000 PhD’s are granted each year. And
it are not only US trained economists that enter the
market. Since strategic interactions among multiple
players are involved, the whole junior job market can
be considered as a gigantic game. It is moreover a very
complex one because it involves a lot of uncertainty
and private information. Departments can never
be sure that a promising candidate will eventually
succeed in publishing papers in the academic top
journals. Candidates may view Europe as a hidden
fall-back position in case the US does not work out.
Or they may have a secret boy- or girlfriend which
interferes with their academic preferences.
Part of the uncertainty involved is removed in the
first round of the job market process. Candidates
send in their file to the departments in which they
are potentially interested. This file consists of a CV, a
hopefully polished job market paper and a number
of reference letters that try to convince the recruiters
that the candidate is an only once in a lifetime catch.
This year, the Departments of Economics, Finance
and Econometrics & OR of Tilburg University received
367 files for a handful of positions. All these files had
to be carefully screened by different recruitment
committees to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Per vacant position about fifteen candidates were
selected for a second round. This second round
consists of an interview during the annual meeting of
the Allied Social Science Associations that takes place
Together with Otilia Boldea and Tobias Klein, we had
to interview 31 candidates for at most two positions
in microeconometrics. Having interviews from 08.00
hours until 18.30 hours is quite fatiguing. Though
also exciting, at least if you are on the good side of
the table. You see quite some interesting species
passing by, ranging from extremely self-confident
candidates who are not impressive at all to nicely
dressed up frantic ones who seem to undergo the
most horrific experience in their life. It is fair to say
that most of these talks were nice and cosy. Especially
if you realise that they take place in a spacious suite
with a dramatic view on the bay of San Francisco on
the top floor of a centrally located hotel. With two
flat screens and a George Clooney machine. What
else. Oh, yes, the king size bed allowed to smoothly
recover from the hard day. Based upon the interviews,
six microeconometricians were invited for a fly out
to Tilburg (with comparable numbers for the other
recruiting departments). Such a campus visit consists
of a pretty dense programme stuffed with talks with
faculty members, a job market seminar which makes
it hot for the candidate and a dinner which is the
ultimate test for the fitness of an applicant.
Name:
Frederic Vermeulen
Position:
Associate professor
After the fly outs, the whole process is coming to an
end. On the basis of the information gathered thus
far, a definitive ranking of the remaining candidates
is made and offers are sent out. There is no guarantee
that an offer is accepted by the applicant, remember
the uncertainty issue. Since I am running out of words
allocated to this column, I have to remain silent on
how one can convince an applicant to accept an offer.
As good old William wrote earlier though: all’s well
that ends well. In this case this means that the Tilburg
positions are now filled up with pretty promising
and ambitious people. But spare them a bit next year
when you see them in class: these heroes are the sole
survivors of a fierce battle. |
27
mp r o v ing d e c isi o n ma k ing
in l o gisti c s
s c ientifi c arti c le c qm
In logistics, simulation is a valuable and commonly used method to support decision making. However,
simulation has a number of drawbacks like large running times and high development cost. Alternative
modeling approaches are available but less well known. Using the appropriate approach may improve the
quality of decision making dramatically.
Name:
Marcel van Vuuren
Position:
Consultant CQM
Name:
Marnix Zoutenbier
Position:
Senior consultant
CQM
Many decisions in logistics are based on
knowledge of the decision makers combined
with the output from supporting models.
However, in our daily work, we see a class
of decisions for which models are not
adequately used which leads to suboptimal
decisions. Examples of decisions in which
models are commonly used are investing in
new equipment, relocating warehouses and
production facilities, ordering policies in
inventory management, assigning production
orders to production lines, determining the
setup of a production facility, and determining
an easy-to-use rule to open or close a teller at
the local super market.
In this paper, we discuss simulation as a
modeling approach in logistical decision
making and discuss
the
limitations
of this approach in terms of decision
support. Further, we discuss two possible
alternatives to simulation, namely Analytical
Approximations and Design and Analysis of
Computer Experiments.
Simulation as modeling approach
Simulation is commonly used as the modeling
approach in most of the examples above. In
short, a process map is made, and for each
sub process the main characteristics are used
as input. These main characteristics could be
the arrival rate of products and customers,
the service rate, the capacity of each sub
process and priority rules to determine the
order in which jobs are executed. Output is
in terms of waiting times, throughput times,
lost orders or other important characteristics.
These characteristics can be translated to
cost and profit if necessary. A large class of
situations can be modeled in this way.
The main reason why simulation is chosen
as modeling approach is that it gives the
opportunity to mimic the relevant reality quite
close. A second reason is that it is a flexible
approach that is generally applicable and the
model can be visualised in a very appealing
way. A more academic reason is that for all
relevant practical situations exact analytical
expressions can not be determined because
mathematical models are too complicated
and are not expected to be solved in the near
future.
Although modeling a process with simulation
can be attractive, many important questions
cannot be answered with a simulation model.
If, nevertheless, in this case the simulation
approach is chosen, a fancy model is
developed but the important decisions can
not be supported with it. This is typically
the case when the decision space is very
large, which means that many alternative
decisions should be considered. Examples are
a minimal cost setup of the factory, a minimal
cost network of production and warehouse
facilities, and a maximal throughput setup of
a production facility. In case of an investment
decision the decision space might be very
small: to invest or not to invest, in which case
a simulation model can be a very powerful to
support the decision.
The main problem with a simulation model
is that executing a simulation is quite
time consuming and with a large class of
potentially optimal solutions, it is impossible
to simulate all solutions and choose the best
one. Another problem with simulation is that
sensitivity analysis is practically impossible
because for sensitivity analysis typically also
many simulation runs with high accuracy have
28
to be executed which also consumes
much time.
Because real decision support in
practice often means discussing
possible solutions from various
points of view with multiple people,
information from models can only be
useful if it can be extracted real time in
direct contact with the decision makers.
In this context, most simulation models
can not be used. Below, we describe
two alternative modeling approaches
that can tackle the disadvantages of
simulation models.
most simulation models. Note that a
simulation model is not necessary to
develop AA models, but combining the
strengths of these worlds potentially
gives even better results.
Design and Analysis of Computer
Experiments
The second alternative for simulation
that we discuss is Design and Analysis
of Computer Experiments (DACE), an
approach widely used in product and
process development. This approach
“ Time is ripe for two ‘new ’
modelling approaches.”
Analytical Approximations
In the last decade big steps are made
in the development of analytical
approximations (AA), see for example
[1]. With the AA approach a process is
modeled with easy to use analytical
approximations that are tailor made
for the specific question that has
to be answered. Also, more and
more standard AA models are being
developed lately. This means that the
scope of the resulting model is small,
but specifically usable for the question
to be answered. Usually, these models
execute a lot faster (up to a factor
10000) than simulation models and
are much easier to use for sensitivity
analysis at the cost of a little bit
precision.
uses an intelligently chosen set of
experiments with their outcomes
from a simulation model as input and
gives a relatively easy to optimise
expression as an output. In the field
of product and process development,
input often comes from simulation
packages based on the laws of physics
in which often many partial differential
equations are numerically solved using
the finite element method. Here, the
necessity of DACE results from the fact
that simulation runs might take hours
or even days and physical experiments
are not possible (which resembles
the situation in logistics). Some
applications are in the development of
shavers, flight motors, and integrated
circuits.
AA models give the opportunity to
search a large decision space for the
best solutions. One can use techniques
from
combinatorial
optimisation,
like heuristic search methods, to find
the best or near-best solution for the
decision. This is not possible with
Applying
DACE
in
a
logistic
environment means that a specific
subset of simulations (or AA’s) is
carried out and the results of these
simulations are translated to a
compact model. Models often used
in this context are regression models,
splines, and Kriging models. All of
them suitable for specific classes of
underlying simulation models and
all of them result in a closed form
expression in which optimisation and
sensitivity analysis can be performed
easily and directly. This implies that
DACE is also an appealing approach
in decision problems in which many
alternatives have to be considered.
For both classes of models, like for all
models, it is essential that it is verified
that the model fits reality well enough.
Model validation is therefore an
essential part of the modeling process
and various techniques can be used. In
the DACE approach this is especially
important because in general the
compact model is validated against
the simulation model which is already
an approximation of reality.
Concluding remarks
Simulation is a very well known
modeling approach in logistics.
Although practically all processes
can be modeled with simulation, it is
often not the best modeling approach
to support the specific decisions that
have to be made.
Decision making in logistics can be
improved by using different modeling
approaches next to simulation. In
our opinion, time is ripe for two
‘new’ approaches. On the one hand,
recent developments in analytical
approximations make them powerful
enough to serve as an alternative or
supplement for simulation to be able to
find better solutions in large decision
spaces. On the other hand, Design and
Analysis of Computer Experiments
may be used as a supplement for
simulation to make a compact model
from a relatively small set of simulation
experiments. This compact model may
then be easily optimised. |
[1] Vuuren, Marcel van, Performance Analysis of Manufacturing Systems, 2007
29
T he en d o f q u antitati v e
f inan c e ?
Committee profile
Symposium
Since the Asset structure was introduced, the goal of Asset | Econometrics is to organise two symposiums each
year, instead of one conference. This ensures that light will be shed on all the major fields of Econometrics at
Tilburg University. The last symposium about revenue management was a great success. For us, the committee
organising the follow-up to this symposium, it will be very difficult to at least equal the successes of the last
committee, but we will of course give it our best try!
Subject
Our committee is chaired by Nicole van
Reij. Tim van der Molen Kuipers is secretary,
Linda Vos treasurer and Emile van Elen, Iris
Blankers and Yvonne van de Meerendonk
focus on public relations. After we had had
a few talks with lecturers, there seemed only
to be one logical subject for this symposium:
the consequences of the credit crunch. We
decided to sub-divide this subject into: the
consequences for banks, insurers, pension
funds, the government and the consequences
for the whole financial world. Mr Nijman, a
professor affiliated with Netspar, the pension’s
institute at Tilburg University, wondered
whether the credit crunch would mean the
end of Quantitative Finance (QF). Of course,
it is not, but it is certain that some changes
need to be made in the financial world. We
must try not to make the same mistakes, in
order to minimise the risk of another financial
crisis. How is this done? Partly by less financial
innovation. Does this imply the possible end
of QF? At least you don’t have to worry about
job opportunities as a future econometrician.
In this new financial world especially, a lot of
people will be needed who are able to quantify
and work with risks.
Speakers
I will leave a further explanation of the subject
to the experts. At the moment of writing, we
are still looking for some speakers. However,
I am sure this will work out just fine and that
we will be able to present some great speakers
on 14 May, the day the symposium will take
place. As for top speakers, we are happy to
announce that Henk Brouwer, director of
De Nederlandsche Bank (a Dutch institute
that tries to ensure financial stability in the
Netherlands), will give a lecture. As you can
imagine, Mr Brouwer and his colleagues
are very busy at the moment, therefore, we
are very glad he is able to contribute to our
symposium by giving a lecture. Furthermore,
Mr de Boo, a representative of the CBS (Central
Statistical Office), will also give a lecture. Mr de
Boo might be familiar to you from television,
as he always sits on the podium during any
press releases that concern the CBS. Mr Riemen
will focus on the consequences of the crunch
for the pension world, as he is director of the
‘Vereniging voor Bedrijfstakpensioenfondsen’.
Also, CEO of ORTEC Finance, Mr van Welie
will give a lecture. The chairman of the day
will be Mr Beck, who has recently joined the
Department of Economics as a professor. His
research focuses on the question of which
policies are needed to build a sound and
effective financial system. He has worked in a
very international environment and we look
forward to his opening lecture.
Set-up
We will start the day with a reception. After the
introduction by Nicole and the chairman of the
day, Mr Beck, there will be two lectures. Then,
after a break, you will have the opportunity
to choose between lectures or a workshop
provided by All Options. Here you will have
the opportunity to act as a trader and to react
as such to a certain scenario. After the parallel
sessions, we will all come together again in
the auditorium for a closing lecture. Naturally,
the day will end with drinks.
Name:
Iris Blankers
Age:
22
Begin studies:
2004
The symposium is titled: ‘A New Financial
World: the Day after the Credit Crunch’ and
will take place on Thursday 14 May. So please
mark this date in your diary and come and
enjoy this symposium. The whole day will be
in English. Furthermore, we will try to keep the
level of the talks accessible for all students
of Econometrics. In addition, we will try to
reschedule all the lectures that day. So there is
really nothing to prevent you from coming! |
31
athemati c a l M o t o r M a d ness
T he tea c her
Who is Edwin van Dam? Most people know him from lectures, as the teacher with a ponytail. So, time for an
interview in which we will go from mathematics to rankings to a great hobby: Edwin’s story.
Name:
Edwin van Dam
Position:
Full Professor
From sports to mathematics
Almost everybody knows what he wants to be
in the future when he is young. When Edwin was
about fifteen years old he wanted to become
a sports instructor. He especially liked football
and tennis. Unfortunately his knees did not
function as good as they should, so becoming a
sports instructor was not an option. But during
his time at secondary school he found out that
he liked mathematics and natural sciences as
well. So when he passed his exams in 1986, he
decided to study Technical Mathematics at
the Eindhoven University of Technology. The
programme included mathematics combined
with some technical courses like coding theory
and signal processing.
Edwin was a member of the student association
GEWIS during his student days. This association
catered for the students of two programmes:
Technical Mathematics and Computer Science.
He became a board member in the third year
of his programme. As a board member, he was
responsible for the ‘special’ activities such
as sports activities and parties. His student
association also organised other activities like
symposia and had a magazine, just like Asset |
Econometrics has, though according to Edwin,
Asset | Econometrics is more professional
than his student association was. He also told
us that only a small group of truly devoted
members participated in the activities that his
association organised.
Working days
After his graduation in 1992, Edwin applied
for a PhD position in various projects. Finally,
Tilburg University decided they could use a
mathematician in their projects at CentER. We
wondered if his studies were a good starting
point for his PhD at CentER, because he was
a mathematician and not an econometrician.
Edwin told us that the mathematics he learned
was a good basis for this doctoral research
and that he picked up some economics and
operations research during his further career.
Edwin still works for Tilburg University, but he
has had one break where he worked in Canada
instead of the Netherlands.
In 1997, Edwin packed his bags and moved
to Canada to work at Queen’s University
in Kingston. He enjoyed the cooperation
with his colleagues and he really liked the
university there. That year was, except for
the very cold winter (with an infamous ice
storm), a great success. The cold winter was
the only big difference between Canada and
the Netherlands. Edwin says that Canada is a
social country and that the people are almost
the same as in the Netherlands. He moved back
to Holland after a year. Despite the fact that he
enjoyed his time in Canada, his girlfriend and
a job back in Holland were more important to
him.
Back in the Netherlands Edwin continued
to work for Tilburg University as a university
lecturer. He stayed in Tilburg because he likes
the university and his colleagues. He also
likes the work he does, especially because he
gets enough time for research. “And that is
important, because there are so many things
to discover,” according to Edwin. Edwin likes
to publish articles and he is particularly proud
of one article he published together with his
colleague Jack Koolen, called “A new family
of distance-regular graphs with unbounded
diameter.” Publishing good articles is also
one of the reasons why Edwin was placed
eighteenth in the ranking for Dutch economists
in 2000. The only way to be mentioned on this
list, is to publish a lot of high quality articles in
the right magazines.
But publishing is not everything Edwin does.
Normally he starts his working day around
eight or nine o’clock in the morning by
32
dolorem velesequat estie dolobor se
delesse
Nowquamet
we know
ver si.a bit more about Edwin’s
cum veliquis nos eugait nosto conuleril utat vent nullandre del dignim
Equat.
career,
Ut utpat.
we wondered
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at, Econometrics
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looking pratue
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Nekst x
3 - Maand
March 2009
jaar
33
c o n o met r i c s in p r a c ti c e
business interview aegon
Nekst was surprised to hear that the business interview would take place with a former board member of
‘TEV’, currently known as Asset | Econometrics. After a trip by train to The Hague, we arrived at AEGON’s head
office, where we were welcomed by Yvette Vermaes, who is now an actuary at this firm. She tells us all about
her work and her daily life as an actuary.
Name:
Yvette Vermaes
Age:
28
Yvette’s life
Prior to our meeting, we waited in the brightly
decorated lobby of the building where a lot
of small coloured balls hung from the ceiling.
After a brief wait, we were welcomed by
Yvette. She guided us through the building
looking for an office where the interview
could take place. We sat down together and
our first question was why she had chosen to
study Econometrics in Tilburg. Yvette answers
by telling us she was fond of mathematics
and economics, so Econometrics seemed
to be a logical choice. During her life as a
student she was an active member of Asset
| Econometrics: she was a member of the
Business Research Programme Committee
twice and joined the board in 2000.
which is highly focused on the liabilities of
the pension fund. However, since 2007 the
law states that the solvency criteria are more
strict and that they should be based on more
details of the investment mix. She decided
she would like to look at the asset side of the
balance sheet in more detail. In order to get
a better understanding of the pension fund
assets she decided to make the transition
from Aon to AEGON.
Working at AEGON
AEGON is one of the world’s largest providers
of life-insurance, pensions, long-term savings
and investment products. AEGON is a very
diverse company with a variety of services
and products. Yvette works for the division
“I like the activities of the actuar y profession,
because almost ever yone has a pension plan.”
Position:
Yvette Vermaes studied for five years at
Consultant
Investment Solutions Tilburg University, where she was mainly
interested in the field of quantitative finance.
She mentioned that the courses back then
focussed less on the actuarial sciences.
Nevertheless, she managed to graduate on
an actuarial topic, which dealt with sharing
technical profits, profits resulting from
mortality or disability. At AEGON she uses a lot
of concepts that were dealt with in the third
year course Risk Theory. After graduating,
she decided she wanted to work with the
actuarial advisory group of Aon and she did
this for three years. During her first year of
employment, she went on a six-month trip
to South-East Asia with her boyfriend, where
she travelled from Jakarta to Beijing. At Aon
her job consisted mainly of consultancy work,
of investment solutions, as a part of the
asset management department. The question
why she chose to work for AEGON and not
for another financial company is a difficult
question for her. She explains that she likes the
diversity of her work: consulting clients and
product development. The team she works
with currently greatly appeals to her: “I have
a lot of experienced colleagues and I am very
eager to learn.” Furthermore, she argues, one
of her main tasks is to maintain the current
asset-liability management (ALM) model. A
lot of techniques and methods learnt during
your studies can be applied, like modelling
inflation risk or modelling the term structure
of an interest rate. This means that you are a
model-developer and consequently you visit
clients every now and then. “In principle, the
34
sales department visits our clients and
we only join them if our clients need
technical advice or help.”
AEGON can present an ALM study to
its clients (mostly to the boards of
pension funds) in order to support
them in defining their policy. These
studies illustrate the effects of the
pension fund’s policy on their assets
and liabilities. AEGON also presents
some alternative investment solutions.
Topics that play a central role in
these ALM studies are, for instance:
what are the effects on the pension’s
fund solvability if the fund invests
more in stocks or what happens if
the pension fund does not hedge its
interest rate risk? In answer to the
question whether she would like to
continue this work in the near future,
she says that she would like to focus
on the international pension market as
well, which is also possible and even
encouraged at AEGON. Recently a
French colleague has joined the Dutch
team, providing a good opportunity to
explore the French pension market.
Besides this, there is another
international development taking
place. AEGON Worldwide would like
to merge the asset management
departments of various countries.
These asset management departments
should form a separate entity within
the organisation. This globalisation
process will have a great impact on,
for instance, AEGON’s balance sheet.
Currently, AEGON is investigating
ways in which to cope with such an
enormous process.
Besides her regular job, Yvette studied
to become an actuary and completed
her course halfway through 2008.
At present, she is a member of the
actuarial community (Actuaris AAG).
“I like the activities of the actuary
profession, because almost everyone
has a pension plan.“ Besides being
actuaries, some of her colleagues are
chartered financial analysts. This is
an international professional title
awarded to financial analysts who
pass a series of three examinations,
following a two-year course. In Yvette’s
case, becoming a financial analyst is a
realistic option.
Credit Crunch
Nekst would also like to shed some
light on the credit crunch. Therefore
we asked Yvette a few questions
about this topic. Firstly, she would
like to mention that there are two
different pension schemes: defined
contribution and defined benefit. Most
employees have a defined benefit
scheme, which specifies the benefit
that participants will receive during
retirement, for example, a fraction of
the middle or final wage as annuity.
All investment risks are covered by the
pension fund or future generations
that are participants of that fund. In
comparison, defined contribution
schemes specify the contribution of
the employer, but leave all choices and
risks with the participant. With regard
to the pension funds, Yvette indicates
that less indexation in the future can be
one of the results of the credit crunch.
Pension funds have different ways to
cope with the credit crunch at their
disposal: for example, they could either
increase premium income or lower
indexation. Nevertheless, our former
board member of Asset | Econometrics
is not too pessimistic about the future.
These are challenging times for pension
funds, which might trigger ‘out of the
box’ solutions and moreover deliver
a very interesting playing field. After
all, changing situations always lead to
new opportunities.
days in one week and four days in the
other week and she has a contract for
36 hours. Normally, she works from
8.00 am to 5.30 pm. At home she has
to read some literature related to the
actuary profession in order to remain
up-to-date. The company organises
informal drinks once a month and a
skiing holiday once a year. Yvette says
that this leaves her with enough time
left to have hobbies. As a matter of fact,
she is a very fanatic tennis player. She
plays tennis three times a week at level
3, formerly known as B1, which implies
you know how to handle a tennis
racket! With one final comment, Yvette
wants to advise the econometricians
at Tilburg University that they should
take time to look around and orient
themselves before starting to work for
a company. With this imprinted on our
memories, we end the interview, say
goodbye to the coloured balls, leave
the building and take the train back to
Tilburg. [SvB]
Working conditions
Nekst is also interested in the working
conditions at AEGON. Yvette works five
35
Mathijs Jansen
Marije Alblas
Bas Verheul
Committees
Active Members Day
Finance Expedition
Linda Vos
Paul Peters
Kathinka de Veer
Mendy van Helvoirt
Sjoerd Timmermans
Maikel Hommel
Linda Vos
Thomas-Jelle van Tienhoven
Koen Nijland
Active Members Weekend
Rik van Beers
Stéphanie van Breda
Paul Peters
Emile van Elen
Freshmen
Lars van Heijst
Plom van Rooij
Tess Beukers
Pauline Geertman
Linda Vos
Tianxin Huang
Almanac
Emile van Elen
Mathijs Jansen
Harold van Heijst
Josine Janus
Hettie Boonman
Bas Hamers
Active Members Day
OR symposium
BRP 2009
Finance Expedition
Board
Linda Vos
Mathijs Jansen
Emile van Elen
Stefan Damen
Marije Alblas
Book of Faces
Linda Vos
Manon Geertsen
Guido Hendrikx
Ramon van Schaik
Nekst
Almanac
Board
Whitney Pattinaja
Marleen Balvert
Tess Beukers
Linda Vos
Mirjam Groote Schaarsberg
Tim Boonen
Timo Matthias Deist
Servaas van Bilsen
Bas Verheul
Emile van Elen
Lustrum
Business Research
Programme 2008
Manon Geersten
Thomas Zelders
Mathijs Jansen
Tim Thijssen
Nicole van Reij
Business Research
Programme 2009
Promotion
Orientation & Information
Day
Active members weekend
Linda Vos
Dori van Hulst
Tessa Bakkers
Anouk Rennen
Stefan Damen
Thomas Geelen
Frank Steenbergen
OID
Sjoerd Timmermans
Yvonne Blom
Stefan Damen
Yoni Simons
Guido Hendrikx
Drinks and Activities
Promotion
Petra Kleven
Dennis Jaheruddin
Katinka de Veer
Claudia Rommens
Emy van der Wielen
Stefan Damen
EBT
Stefan Damen
Pascal Heuijerjans
Inge Pulles
Elske Leenaars
Timo Matthias Deist
Book of Faces
Nekst
BRP 2008
Drinks and Activities
OR symposium
Inge Pulles
Marije Alblas
Mathijs Jansen
Chantal van der Helm
Yvonne Blom
Bram Steenhoek
Tim Hoevenaars
Robin van der Vooren
Sander van der Ploeg
Michel Cijsouw
Ben Boschker
Jeroen Medema
Finance symposium
Education
Iris Blankers
Chantal van der Helm
Harmen Boersma
Lustrum
Frans Fonville
Mathijs Jansen
Evelien Kerkmeijer
Sjoerd Timmermans
Ramon van Schaik
Marieke van der Ven
Manon Geertsen
Freshmen
EBT
Finance symposium
Education
Iris Blankers
Yvonne van de Meerendonk
Tim van der Molen Kuipers
Nicole van Reij
Linda Vos
Emile van Elen
s m o k ing t y r es an d sh o o ting
D rink and a c tivity
ORTEC
The second Asset | Econometrics activity in two weeks time. After the great pool tournament for freshmen
and second year students, on Tuesday 9 December the Drinks & Activities committee organised an activity for
all members of Asset | Econometrics. We could choose whether we wanted to feel like Michael Schumacher in
a go-kart, or to join a laser game.
De Voltage
One could tell from the subscription list that
a lot of racing-drivers would be disappointed,
as there were many more students who
wanted to go go-karting than who wanted to
go laser-gaming. Nevertheless, we decided to
tick the column headed “go-karting”.
bad manoeuvres caused a crash behind me,
and one of the drivers (also a freshman) had
to quit the race because of it. Fortunately, he
was not injured. In the end, I finished seventh,
a reasonable result if you ask me, although
I had told everyone I would definitely end
first.
So we went to ‘De Voltage’, where the
activities would take place. Fortunately, the
guy I cycled with had drawn a map on the
back of his hand, so we would not get lost
in Tilburg-South. After about a ten minute
ride from the train station, we arrived at
‘the largest indoor entertainment centre
in the Netherlands’. But actually, it did not
really look like that. It was situated right in
the middle of a residential area and looked
more like an old factory building. Although it
was already seven o’clock, there were only a
few bicycles outside. We wondered whether
we were at the right place, but decided to
go inside anyway. Once we were in, we soon
recognised some familiar faces.
The second part
It was time to go to “our favourite pub”, Café
Babbus. First there would be a presentation
provided by AEGON, followed by drinks. On
our way to the bar, we decided to stop at
McDonalds to use up the discount tickets we
had received during the TIK week. So, a bit
too late, we arrived at café Babbus, where the
presentation already started. As quietly as
possible we found somewhere to sit, trying
not to disturb the presentation, which was
about credit crunch. The representatives of
AEGON elaborated on some facts about the
company, its position in the market, and the
consequences that the crunch might have, or
already has had, on the company. I recognised
some of the things they mentioned from what
I had seen and read on television and in the
newspapers.
Go-Karting and Laser gaming
Although it seemed during class that there
were too many people who wanted to go
karting, at first only two of them had to be
disappointed. Fortunately for them, however,
not all of the people who subscribed showed
up, so everybody could do what he or she
wanted to do. Since there were still lots of
econometricians who preferred go-karting,
there were three karting heats altogether.
I was in the last group, so after waiting for
about half an hour, I was finally able to put
my racing skills to the test. I started way too
confidently and during the first laps I made
some mistakes at the corners. One of those
Name:
Bart van Schuppen
Age:
19
Begin studies:
2008
After the presentation AEGON was so kind as
to give away a free barrel of beer, much to our
delight. The D&A-committee gave everyone a
nice Santa hat and before we realised it, the
free barrel had run dry, so we had to pay for
our beers again. Then the Lustrum committee
showed a matrix-related movie about the
Lustrum and gave away another barrel of
beer! It was a great night, but at two o’clock
in the morning, after the two barrels and a bit
more...the bartender turned on the light and
kindly asked to leave. |
39
t u d y ing a b r o a d in
the nethe r l an d s
e x c hange report
Studying abroad has been one of the biggest dreams of every ambitious Chinese student since the Reform
and Open-up Policy has been implemented in China. To us, the outside world was a mystery, ruled by a system
that we regarded as the origin of crime. The world characterised by a mixture of prosperity and sin, which was
probably just as the outside world described China.
Although Europe was never open to us until
almost the beginning of this century, we
were familiar with the Netherlands, with its
unparalleled dams and the mad gifted Van
Gogh. My step to go to the Netherlands
resulted, just as that of many others did, from
weighing the pros and cons of all the aspects
we could think of like our major, the language,
the tuition fee, etcetera.
Name:
Lina Jin
Begin studies:
2006
Nationality:
Chinese
I would immediately think of our canteen. In
the Netherlands, we are more or less forced
to cook for ourselves, which means that we
have to go shopping; we have to find the
right oil, salt, sauce and vinegar that will
make an edible dinner. Some people enjoy
doing these things and others complain. As
for me, I still miss a line up of 50 to almost 100
metres of all kinds of delicious food.
“I had never heard of the word
‘assignment’ as a law student
in China.”
Throughout years of study in Tilburg, I think
every Chinese student has felt the dramatic
change in our student life. First of all, we
become more independent, not only in terms
of how we study, but also how we live. At
the beginning of each semester, we need to
deal with a pile of administrative issues on
our own, which would otherwise be done
by the supervisor of each class in China.
There we are treated as a whole and not as
an individual, therefore the only person you
need to turn to is your supervisor, instead of a
central student desk, an international office, a
study advisor or a coordinator. It sounds easy,
doesn’t it? Unfortunately, it might lead to you
becoming lazy when dealing with practical
issues, instead of taking the initiative to do
something. In this sense, an easy life or an
active one, the one that is more interesting
and meaningful, is your own choice. If I were
asked a question concerning the biggest
convenience of my student life in China, then
We Chinese often say: ‘happy with life, then
happy with work’. After settling down in the
Netherlands, we begin to adjust ourselves to
the type of education here. The first things
that make us feel awful are the courses, but
these are at the same time attractive due to
the assignments. I had never heard of the
word ‘assignment’ as a law student in China.
When I see my classmate doing his defence
or a case study, I always feel sorry for him and
meanwhile feel guilty and pitiful for my life
ever edified by those divine terms. While I
believe the assignments are very useful, not
only because they function as a warming
up for the final exams and improve the
understanding of the content, they also help
to sharpen the questions we need to answer
and enhance independent thinking through
discussions and cooperating with each
other. If this can be seen as a sort of active
learning style, then traditional education in
China is relatively passive. More emphasis
40
Chinese Wall
is put on the principles and citation
of the principles. Fortunately, China
is reforming due to influences of the
West and those who have been abroad
themselves.
As students, sometimes the ‘holy
question’ for us is whether we are able
to pass the exam or not. I can ensure you
that this is one thing you don’t need to
worry about in China, but you do have
to worry a little about if you are in the
Netherlands. Our country follows a well
known policy ‘difficult to enter, easy to
leave’. Taking the entry exam might be
the toughest time for every student
in his or her lifetime. Once he or she
enters university, graduation is almost
a certainty if you continue to work on
your studies. On the other hand, here
you sometimes really need to work
hard to pass your course in four years.
In general the Chinese students here
feel that the exams are relatively more
difficult to pass in the Netherlands
than they are in China, although the
level of the lectures is the same with
regard to content and difficulty. ‘Easy
to pass’ has nothing to do with not
learning anything. In another sense, we
also have more freedom to choose the
literature we feel is most interesting.
It was whilst making this choice that
I discovered the continental legal
system. The freedom to do and think
most likely plays the same role in
China as doing assignments does here
in the Netherlands.
Apart
from
studying,
another
important reason to want to go abroad
is to gain some work experience in an
international environment. China is
opening itself to the world, the world
has its interests in China. Working in
an international company helps us to
understand how Europeans think and
behave. Quite a few of my friends work
in Europe or in China and act as a bridge
linking the West and China. Speaking
two or more languages, working
independently as representatives of
the companies, dealing with people
from different cultures; they have taken
full advantage of their experience
abroad and gradually become quite
successful in their careers. Similarly,
some European students adopt the
same strategy, first studying in China,
then working in China and in that way
building their own futures.
Although studying and working are
important, we shall never forget to
enjoy life in Europe. If anyone has
ever lingered in the streets of Paris, I
am sure they will never feel the urge
to see the Shanghai Bund. From the
splendid Palaces to the picturesque
landscape, Europe vividly exposes itself
to us. It is so easy to travel through the
continent. In a few hours, you are in
another foreign country. Talking with
the locals, planning to visit the next
scenic spot and regretting that we are
almost running out of time, all these
add flavour to our Dutch student life.
Having been in the Netherlands for
a while, we also attend events like
Carnival parties, a dinner with all the
international students or a Bible study
gathering with other Christians. In a
word, gradually, we are merging into
this society. If you were in China, a
travel plan would undoubtedly be one
of the first things to be carried out. By
the way, you would probably like to go
to Karaoke regularly, too. You would
have a lot of fun in addition to studying.
Another very important tip is that you
never need to worry about when to go
shopping, because the shops are open
seven days a week, until 11pm.
This article might give you an idea of
why we come here, how we foreign
students feel about the Netherlands
and Europe and how we survive our
student life. I also hope you might
consider stepping out of this European
circle and going abroad to an Eastern
country like China. We enjoy our stay
here and so would you if you were in
China. |
41
r o ningen v e r s u s ein d h o v en :
the sh o w d o wn
N ational e c onometri c ians day
With this year’s National Econometricians Day (NED), I completed the cycle. I have been to every major city
As we were finishing our last beer at the information market we looked to our left and saw employees of The
where econometrics is taught, to get to know my future employers and enjoy the entire day. Since I have
Boston Consulting Group already packing up their stuff. A friend of mine who goes to the Free University and
been to these activities, I would like to compare this year’s NED (organised by VESTING from Groningen) to
I looked around and were unable to find any other students. Also, half of the companies had already left. We
the previous NED, organised by Asset | Econometrics. I will do this based on three different criteria: location,
realised that it was probably time for us to go, too!
organisation and programme.
Name:
Mathijs Jansen
Age:
23
Begin studies:
2004
Last year’s NED was held at the Evoluon in
Eindhoven. This UFO-like building is really
nice to see compared to the rather simple
Martiniplaza. But since you cannot judge
a book by its cover, we also need to look at
the inside of the buildings. Here again, the
Evoluon looks futuristic and abstract, whereas
the Martiniplaza is more practical. During the
NED in Eindhoven, there were some problems
with noise because the presentation ‘rooms’
where made using screens. In Groningen, there
was no problem with noise because all the
rooms where actual rooms. So both locations
have their advantages and disadvantages.
The Martiniplaza is more practical and the
Evoluon more attractive. Therefore, I will take
the dinner location into consideration. In this
case, the NED 2009 wins hands down, since
the dinner was held in the Martini church
(it seems that in Groningen every building
should have ‘Martini’ in its name, since there
is also a Martini tower and probably other
buildings that satisfy this criteria). The dinner
of the NED 2008 was held at the Evoluon,
which is nice, but not as creative as dining in
a church. 1-0 for the NED 2009.
Next up is the organisation. In Eindhoven
I had the opportunity to have a little peek
in the kitchen and hopefully I can review
the organisation thoroughly. Here I have to
give my compliments to both organising
committees. The NEDs of 2008 and 2009 were
both very well-organised and during the day,
nothing really went wrong. There were a lot
of volunteers available on location to show
everybody where to go and answer all their
questions. But for this review one of the
committees has to come out on top. Here
the award goes to the organisation of ‘our’
NED, because it was promoted better. The
organising committee visited every student
association for Econometrics to give lecture
talks and they even attended several drinks
organised by these associations. Because
of this enthusiasm, the NED 2008 was fully
booked. For the review it is a tie; 1-1.
On our way to the buses we were given a
present: a homemade, brand-new LED 2009
towel, which would come in handy for the next
morning at the youth hostel. We arrived at the
bus that would take us to the dinner location,
the Martinikerk, just in the nick of time.
Last but not least the programme. Since the
NED only changes slightly every edition, I
will only discuss the ‘common’ part briefly.
The NED 2009 started with a lecture by
Professor Jaap van Duijn. He talked about the
importance of broadening your horizon, by
studying abroad, or attending courses from
other study directions. After this there were
two company presentation rounds followed
by a finger-licking lunch. After lunch we could
get to know the companies better by working
on a case for them. In Eindhoven, a similar
approach was chosen with one big difference.
The day in Eindhoven was concluded with
a fake speech by Professor H. Beckman. He
presented himself as a brilliant professor of
the London School of Economics, but actually
he was just a brilliant entertainer. This lighthearted lecture at the end of the ‘official’ part
of the day was a really nice start to the dinner
and party. Unfortunately for VESTING, I have
to award Asset | Econometrics the victory
of this final showdown. This boils down to a
final score of 1-2. So it was close but no cigar
for Groningen. I would like to conclude that I
really enjoyed the National Econometricians
Day 2009 and give the organisation a pat on
the back for this well-organised day.
Arriving there, we were overwhelmed from the
beginning. The church was really nice from the
inside and dining in it would hopefully be a very
pleasant experience. I was sitting at the SAS
table with a student from Erasmus University
next to me. I was rather happy that at this point
the formal part was over. All I had to do for the
next two hours was drink wine and eat dinner.
Luckily, the guy next to me had the exact same
thoughts. Dinner was good, but the wine was
even better.
Dinner came to an end and on our way out we
received a bracelet that was our ticket to the
party.
The idea was now to take a quick shower at the
hostel and then go to the party. Unfortunately,
this took much longer than we hoped so we did
not arrive at the party until around half past
eleven. Here the next problem arose, as I had
lost my bracelet (probably under the shower).
Luckily, a person from the committee showed
up and guaranteed my entrance. &ZO was a
very nice location and most of the people that
were at the National Econometricians Day were
also at the party. We drunk, danced, and chatted
etc. until we were kicked out at three o’ clock
in the morning. Of course, it was too early to
sleep so we searched for a bar to continue
the evening. Our search ended at ‘de Blauwe
Engel’, where we stood on a spinning bar. We
stayed there for half an hour and then went to
another bar, “de Negende Cirkel”. Both bars fell
short of our expectations and by the time we
arrived at “de Tapperij”, the same bar as we had
visited on Monday, everything was closed. A bit
of a disappointing end, but on the whole, the
National Econometricians Day was great! |
Name:
Job Prince
Age:
20
Begin studies:
2006
Some participants during the final party
42
43
It has begun; the celebration of the sixth lustrum of Asset | Econometrics! The evening of 12 February, 2009
On 14 February I woke up aching all over. The reason for my stiffness was a very, very active sports afternoon
marked the beginning of the celebration of the past thirty years of the association. A quiz and the presentation
that had taken place the day before. The day started when we were given a lunchbox and our very own green
of the Almanac by the Almanac Committee were a very promising introduction to the lustrum week.
lustrum sports shirt. So when everyone had changed, they all looked a bit greenish. Following an introduction
on the programme for the day, we came into action.
The evening started with a brief
meeting, during which the board
opened the sixth lustrum. Following
this, a short film based on the topic
of the lustrum, Economatrixxx, was
shown to open the lustrum. In this the
chairman of the lustrum committee
showed off her acting skills. The
evening continued with a quiz, hosted
by the comical duo Willem Haemers
and Henk Norde, perhaps familiar to
you from the courses Applied Linear
Algebra and Analysis, respectively. In
this quiz, the skills and knowledge of
the contestants were tested in sixty
tricky questions on different subjects.
These questions were divided into six
different categories: history, sports,
geography, film & music, culture and
nature. Everybody in the room was
divided into four groups: females, males,
board members and professionals.
Each group was distinguished by its
own colour fluorescent bracelet. The
groups competed against each other
in the quiz to find out which group
was the most intelligent (and of course
which group performed worst).
The results of the quiz showed that the
total group average was just enough
(as is usually the case for students).
The professionals performed best with
a final average mark of 6.4. They were
closely followed by the male students
with an average mark of 6.3. The
individual participant that performed
best was third year student Frank van
Steenbergen, as he won the quiz with
an average of 7.5. Well done!
After the quiz, the Almanac Committee
very creatively presented the Almanac,
on which they had worked for almost a
year. The Almanac contains interesting
facts, interviews and photographs that
tell us all about the past five years of
the association. Because of the theme,
the Almanac is designed wholly in
matrix style and it was introduced
using an inventive film inspired by
the matrix. All the members of the
Almanac committee had a part to
play in the film. It was about how
the Almanac got from the Asset |
Econometrics room to the lecture-hall
were the presentation took place. After
the film, the first Almanac was handed
over to our honorary member, Pieter
Ruys. He gave a brief speech about
the first years of Asset | Econometrics
and the changes that had taken place
within the association throughout its
history. After this interesting speech,
the Almanac was distributed amongst
everyone present and they were also
given a DVD that went with it. The DVD
includes numerous high resolution
photographs, an interview about
econometricians and a secret part.
The evening closed with a reception
that gave us the opportunity to have a
drink and a chat with students, former
active members, business people and
teachers. [ TB]
We could play table tennis, but not as
you normally would: you were allowed
to use anything but an ordinary table
tennis bat. So we had to bring our own
book, coaster, tray, frying pan, dinner
plate or cutting board to play with and
just in case you had forgotten to bring
your ‘bat’ you always had your shoe, of
course!
Another sport that could be played
was foam-stick hockey. The name is
self-explanatory as you play it with a
sort of hockey stick with a large bit of
foam attached to the end. The foam on
the end of the stick makes it possible to
hit the ball very hard without causing
damage to the stick.
To my surprise, another activity (I
would rather not call it a sport) was
Stef stunt-pilot. In this game you have
to protect your chickens from the
crazy Stef stunt-pilot. You win if the
other team loses all their chickens.
There is also another rule that applies:
if you still have all your chickens left
and the other team has lost all theirs,
they have to crawl underneath the
table. And so it was that after a few
games, some people got down on their
knees in order to comply to the abovementioned rule.
The main attraction of the sports
afternoon was a sport called ‘bossaball’.
This game is very similar to volleyball,
however, it is not played on a regular
volleyball pitch. Instead, you play on
a large inflatable cushion with two
trampolines in the middle, one for each
of the two teams. The advantage of the
trampoline is that you can jump really
high in order to hit the ball and do
somersaults, too. After some practice
and several failed attempts, someone
even managed to serve the ball whilst
doing a perfect backward somersault.
In between all the activities, we also
had time to eat our picnic lunch. But not
for long, because there was a surprise
waiting for us: the great lustrum song,
sung to the melody of Viva Hollandia,
by Wolter Kroes. And as dedicated
members of Asset | Econometrics,
everybody
wholeheartedly
sung
along! [ TeB]
The winner of the quiz and the hosts
Bossaball
44
45
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location with the Four Season’s Mansion and a fully pumped-up audience of econometricians dying to deenergise via a really good once-in-a-lifetime party.
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After arriving at the location, the evening’s
dress code appeared to be fully embraced by
the audience. Men all were impeccably tied
up in the inevitable penguin outfit, women
in a wide variety of dresses, some of which
simplifying Amor’s mission of directing
Valentine arrows at a woman’s heart. Other
must-have gala characteristics were also
accounted for: the glass of Champaign upon
entrance and the classical gala portrait photo
shoot.
Name:
Arnoud Klep
Position:
Chairman
1999-2000
After the commonly and gratefully enjoyed
gala dinner, people were all starting to get
in the mood for the party. As an additional
appetiser for the audience, a true salsa
workshop had been arranged for. It must
be said: since the average econometrician
would classify as rhythmically disabled,
the organising committee took a huge risk
in having the audience vigorously try to
experience the elegance of salsa moves.
However, after some practicing, most of the
couples managed to loosen-up their hips
and proudly demonstrated ‘pyramids’ and
‘setentas’ on the swinging music of the salsa
band.
Meanwhile other attendants -among them a
fair concentration of former active memberswere monitoring this metamorphosis from
the back, having drinks and conversations on
the long standing traditions and honourable
history of our student association, commonly
known
as
Tilburgse
Econometristen
Vereniging. ( The author still experiences
some difficulties in recalling its current name).
There also were some rumours of people
signalling remnants of a dinosaur claiming to
attend its third TEV lustrum gala.
After the salsa experience and some alcohol
had had their inevitable impact, the evening
quickly degenerated into an outstanding and
pretty ‘chanceless’ party: the crowd enjoyed
the DJ music, sieged the stage and revealed
their real non-Latin roots with their more
typical econometric dance moves. Speeches
by mastodons Bas and Joris were memorable.
Annerieke, desperately engaging to meet a
romantic Mister Valentine this night, decided
to stall any further activities after a brief
encounter with a first-grader that bluntly
deployed a one-liner about translating as “Are
you ‘arrangeable’ tonight?”. (Unfortunately
the “Dutch-English Van Dale” converter did
not offer me a more suitable alternative for
translation). The committee was invited to
perform the official Economatrixxx lustrum
song, which triggered the author and Tijn to
share with the audience some long dusted
phrases of respectively the fourth and fifth
lustrum song.
Some things never change. An exponent of
this adagio is closing times. At half past two,
a remarkably sober organising committee
diligently accompanied any remaining sticky
audience towards the exit. Recruitment
activities for an after-party started. Initially
there was gossip on the TEV credit card
decreasing hurdle rates, but in the end
the out-of-pocket spending pattern of our
association also proved something that
apparently never changes.
I would like to conclude by expressing words
of gratitude to the association’s board and
lustrum committee for organising an event
that indeed proved to be one of the TEVhighlights (oops, there I go again) of the past
five years. |
47
16 February, 11.45 am, Tilburg Central Station.The Lustrum committee is already present. Only fifteen minutes
And then… on 17 February we were supposed to exit the Economatrixxx. After four days of activities and
before the first students arrive. Lunch packages, folders, badges, everything is ready. A little stress because
parties, the influence of our red pills should end and we should get back to our daily econometrics, but not
of two cancellations. Nevertheless, the committee managed to create a new feasible schedule. Everybody is
without a final party!
present. We leave for Utrecht.
Name:
Sjoerd Timmermans
Age:
21
Begin studies:
2005
For today, rain is forecasted. Will the weather
spoil our day? After all, we have to take three
short walks. The first time we are lucky. No
rain at all. All the students arrive at Café
Broers completely dry. Inside, cake, coffee and
tea are waiting for us. Everybody can have a
bite to eat and a drink before the day opens
with the speed-dating session. Speed-dating,
a new activity for most students and business
people. Will it be a success? After the first
rounds, the first opinions were voiced. ‘Five
minutes is way too little time’, ‘Wow, really
nice, I was so fed up with always listening to
boring company presentations, ‘Glad I only
had to talk to her for five minutes’. Overall, the
opinions were good. That was the first part of
the company day... on to the next activity.
Some rain drops, but not too bad. Painting
will be the afternoon activity. Quite a lot of
rumours had spread before the actual day.
Actually, nobody knew exactly what was
going to happen. Arriving at SJU Jazz, we
found paint, canvas and brushes waiting for
us. Every group had to do two paintings.
On the first one, we had to express the first
thirty years of our association, on the other,
the coming thirty years. The results varied.
Let’s say that some groups were far more
artistically inclined than others! Windmills, a
bear, planes and rockets, we’ve seen it all. The
painting workshop was a good opportunity
to meet the participating companies in an
informal setting. Time flew... another two
hours gone.
The last short walk. It was raining slightly, but
not hard enough to spoil our day. For the last
activity of the day we went to Huize Molenaar
to enjoy a luxurious dinner. The location was
astonishing, both outside and in. A tablet on
the façade of the house proudly announced
that Huize Molenaar is purveyor to Her Majesty
the Queen. The dinner was served in a chic,
old-fashioned room. Between courses the
students switched places and sat with other
companies. The menu was daring. Where the
starter was quite average, the main course
consisted of, among other things, thymus
and calves’ cheek. While some liked it, others
pushed it to the side of their plate and didn’t
touch it again. After dessert, we all went to
the Garden Room. Here we enjoyed cake and
chocolates together with coffee and tea and
this was a wonderful opportunity to evaluate
the day. Everyone had enjoyed themselves
and praised the informal activities. The day
was more unusual than other recruitment
activities.
To end this story, I would like to say that it
might be a good idea to take umbrellas next
time. Just to rule out the uncertainty caused
by the weather! |
Speeddate session in progress
48
This party started with a so-called Beer Thirty. About fifty
Asset | Economatrixxx members dressed in black and green
celebrated the thirty years of their association with a shot
of beer for every year. The music helped us remember every
one of those thirty years. The Lustrum Committee hurried
around the room with watering cans – or in this case
‘beering’ cans – to make sure everybody had a shot of beer
per minute! For every lustrum year ,some extra energy or
spirit was pumped into everybody.
Now the party really could get started and we could all see
that the Beer Thirty had paid off. The Economatrixxx section
of Café Philip was filled with happy and energetic students.
The board was even happier when they got their present,
the Asset | Econometrics Road. It was carried across Café
Philip’s with enormous pride. Unfortunately, we were forced
to leave the Economatrixxx at 2 am. Although I do not think
the effect of the red pill had stopped by then, I do think its
impact will last quite a while, at least, the pictures you will
find on these pages and on www.economatrixxx.nl will help.
[MGS]
e e k in o n e
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o
t
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“ The Lustrum was quite
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- Stan van Workum
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“ T h ir t y y e a r s p t s m y h e a d w a s p o u n d in g !”
a f t e r t h ir t y s h oe n n is J a h e r u d d in
D
“ The lustrum was the unforgettable closing of thir t y years
of TE V and an unsurpassable k ick-off for the nex t thir t y
years of A sset | Econometrics. ” - Marieke van der Ven
49
photopage lustrum
ptimisati o n app r o a c h f o r a
m u lti - hea d S M T ma c hine
P ra c ti c al report
The topic of my Master’s thesis is in the field of Operations Research and focuses on the optimisation of
to set the priorities of optimisation.
This analysis showed that the toolbit
exchanges are most time consuming,
followed by the number of tours. The
distance traversed by the xy-Robot is
of minor importance.
a multi-headed surface mounting machine. I have designed a new optimisation approach for one type of
machine, developed by Assembléon. Assembléon develops, assembles, markets and distributes a diverse
range of Surface Mount Technology (SMT) placement.
Customers
are
manufacturers
using
Assembléon machines to place electronic
components on Printed Circuit Boards
(PCBs). PCBs are used in almost all modern
electronic
applications,
like
mobile
telephones, computers and consumer and
automotive electronics. During my internship
at Assembléon, I have experienced where
technicians apply OR-methods in practical
settings.
Name:
Soesja Grundel
Age:
26
Begin studies:
2004
Typically the xy-Robot will move from the left
to the right side of the feederbank, during
one picking sequence. It is most beneficial
to store all components close to the camera.
However, 10–50 different feeders should be
stored in the feederbank and it also depends
on the used placement head which feeder is
most optimal for each component type.
“ The field of research is broad
and I learned a lot in only a
shor t notice of time.”
The concerned machine is a so-called fine
pitch pick-and-place machine. It is a very
accurate machine, often used to place large
components and components which require
high accuracy. This machine is equipped with
fixed feederbank, fixed printed circuit board
table, conveyable xy-Robot (for instance a
robot that is moveable in both X and Y axes
simultaneously), alignment camera and a
toolbit exchange unit. Figure 1 provides an
overview of the machine. The xy-Robot is
equipped with two arms, each containing
two placement heads.
Core Actions during Production
The production of a PCB starts with positioning
the empty PCB on the working table like
outlined. Next the xy-Robot moves to the
feederbank to pick components. This picking
sequence is the blue-dotted line in figure 2.
Each placement head can pick at most one
component per tour. Each component type is
stored in one of the feeders in the feederbank.
After the pick-actions the robot moves to
the camera and waits for picture intake. This
picture is used to compute the corrections
needed to place the component on the exact
location. If not all components are placed
correctly, the PCB is useless.
When all corrections are calculated, the xyRobot moves to the PCB and sequentially
places all components held by the placement
heads. This placing sequence is the thick red
line in figure 2. Then, the next tour is started
to place the next (at most four) components.
On average, a PCB contains about 10–50
components, which makes that 3–13 tours
are needed to place all components.
Still, the problem is more complicated due
to the toolbits mounted on the placement
heads. Each placement head is equipped with
a certain toolbit which is needed to pick-andplace the components. But not each toolbit
can handle each component. Each component
52
Figure 1: Lay-out of the SMT-machine
is of a certain package type, and the
package type determines the set of
toolbits which can be used to place
the component. Therefore, it might be
necessary that during production, the
placement head exchanges his toolbit,
such that during the remaining tours,
it can handle other components.
This exchange of toolbit is very time
consuming and is performed in the
Toolbit Exchange Unit ( TEU). On
average, the components on a single
PCB are of 1–15 different package
types which can be placed with 1–5
different toolbit types.
To make the problem even more
complicated, it holds that the
combination of package type – toolbit
type also determines the speed of the
xy-Robot. Some package types can be
handled with several toolbit types, but
with a different speed. The optimisation
itself should make the trade-off
between an extra toolbit exchange, or
a lower speed during movement of the
xy-Robot. This problem is considered
in my thesis, but will not be discussed
in this article.
Problem Definition
The current optimisation uses a
set of greedy heuristics. It appears
that this optimisation can easily be
improved by some manual adjustment.
Therefore, Assembléon has given
me the opportunity to design a
new optimisation approach for this
machine. During optimisation, the
production planning is computed
which refers to the sequence the
machine produces the concerned PCB.
Per tour, the following information is
provided by this planning:
1. the components assigned to each placement head
2. the sequence the components are placed onto the PCB
3. the toolbit type assigned to each placement head
The objective of optimisation of the
production process is three-fold. First,
the number of toolbit exchanges is
minimised since this action is very
time consuming. Second, the number
of tours is minimised, because each
extra tour requires additional time for
movement, picture intake, etcetera. At
last, the optimisation minimises the
distance traversed by the xy-Robot
during production.
The setup of feeders in the feederbank
is not considered in my master’s
thesis.
Strategy
By describing the production process,
I recognised that the optimisation
knows several objectives which may
be conflicting. Therefore, I started with
analysing the timing model of the
process, identifying the actions in the
production process which are most
time consuming. This way, I was able
Next, I reviewed the literature on
the topic with an emphasis on
the fundamental structure of the
mathematical models and on the
algorithmic and heuristic approaches
providing suitable solutions for these
models. I adjusted the models used
in the literature for the concerned
machine.
New Optimisation Approach
For scheduling the placements, a
three-stage approach is presented.
For all stages a mathematical model
is formulated. The first stage is
formulated in a set-packing problem
which is solved to predefine the
number of toolbit exchanges. During
this stage the set of superior toolbit
types is determined. Each toolbit type
is superior if it outperforms other
types with respect to the number of
components it can handle and by the
speed of each combination. This stage
also determines the minimum number
of toolbit types which is required for
a feasible solution. This automatically
results in the minimum number of
toolbit exchanges for a certain PCB. For
instance, if five different toolbit types
are required to place all components, at
least one toolbit exchange is necessary
at one of the four placement heads.
The next two stages of optimisation
are performed in case of using 0, 1, 2 or
3 additional toolbit exchanges. Thus,
the optimisation is performed for four
different scenarios.
The second stage is formulated as
an integer linear programming (ILP)
model. This ILP is solved to balance
the workload of placement heads of
the xy-Robot, in terms of number of
components. This way, the number of
53
PGGM
should be made between an extra
toolbit exchange and an extra tour.
In this example, it turns out that the
solution with twelve tours and only
two toolbit exchanges (the second
one mentioned) performs the shortest
cycle time. In the new approach, the
optimisation itself performs this tradeoff.
The third stage consists of a heuristic
algorithm. This algorithm determines
the final toolbit assignment, clusters
of components and placing sequence
for the production planning. This
stage is primarily concerned with the
minimisation of the traversed distance,
given the outcomes of the first two
stages.
F i g u r e 2 : d e f i n i t i o n o f P i c k a n d P l a c e To u r s
tours is minimised given the number
of toolbit exchanges. Consider the
example PCB with 40 components,
requiring at least five different
toolbit types. In the first scenario
(zero additional exchanges), the
optimisation assigns the components
to the toolbit types as follows: [18 10
5 4 3]. This means that the first toolbit
is used to place 18 components, the
second 10 components etcetera. The
toolbits are assigned to the placement
heads such that the workload of the
four placement heads is determined
to be: [18 10 5 7]. Thus, in this example,
the xy-Robot performs 18 tours and
one toolbit exchange is performed
at the fourth placement head (since
toolbit types four and five are both
assigned to this placement head).
During five tours, all placement heads
are used and four components are
placed. During two tours, only three
placement heads are used. During
three tours, two placement heads are
used. And during eight tours, only one
placement head is used. This solution
may not be optimal, since the xy-Robot
is used very inefficient.
Next, the optimisation is allowed to
used one additional toolbit exchange.
This way, the workload of components
to placement head may be [9 9 10
12] using two toolbit exchanges in
twelve tours. Still not an optimal
balancing between placement heads,
but a major improvement compared
to the previous solution. By allowing
two additional toolbit exchanges (so
three exchanges in total), the optimal
balancing [10 10 10 10] is obtained.
Now ten tours are performed using
three toolbit exchanges and each
tour all placement heads are used.
However, one cannot state beforehand
which of these solutions is best, since
the trade-off concerning cycle time,
Results
The algorithms and heuristics have
been implemented and applied to a
sample of fifteen test circuit boards to
analyse their performance. The results
are compared with the heuristic that
is currently in use by Assembléon. This
case study shows an improvement
in cycle time during placements up
to 32%, using the new optimisation
approach. Major pitfall occurs by the
scheduling of components having
different speeds. Certain combinations
of component – toolbit type force the
xy-Robot to move slowly. A further
reduction of placement time can be
achieved by clustering the components
with respect to this speed.
I had a great time during my internship
at Assembléon. The topic was both
interesting and challenging. The field
of research is broad and I learned a
lot in only a short notice of time. I am
grateful to my supervisors for their
support and the opportunity they gave
me. The fact that the new optimisation
is implemented in the software of the
machine has been a great motivation
for me. |
55
KPMG
T e l e v isi o n h o sts as tea c he r s ?
guest c olumn
What if Dutch TV people would provide lectures in English? Would they use the same typical style of speaking
as they do in Dutch? And what would it be like if it were lectures for us econometricians in Tilburg? Let us see
how for example Mathijs van Nieuwkerk and Ivo Niehe would teach us.
Mathijs van Nieuwkerk: “Exercise 1, exercise 4,
homework assignment 1 and theorem 2.1: this
is the tutorial analysis 2! (...) Harold, may I ask
you, you are working at home on exercise 1, it
is weekend, it is Sunday, you want to do other
things than studying. What do you think? Do
you think ‘I want to play football’, do you feel
the desire to watch TV, do you want to go to
your friends? What do you think?
(...) Okay thanks Harold, we continue with
Paul. Paul, you are solving theorem 2.1, the
difficult one. x*y=0, that is what you have to
prove, how will you start? I’ll try to imagine
- and it may sound somewhat wiseacre -, but
will you use x=0 or x≠0? What will be your
approach?”
After this anthology of Van Nieuwkerk’s
multiple-choice tutorial I will guide you to
Ivo Niehe’s lecture.
Ivo Niehe: “And then now, what started with
a few theorems and a rough guideline for
statistics to be used in the continuation
of the study, is now considered to be one
of the most difficult subjects within the
Ivo Niehe
study Econometrics and OR, here … at
Tilburg University. I talk about Statistics for
Econometrics, or Schatten & Toetsen, the old
Dutch name, and from your own point of
view, does that not sound somewhat more
famíliar and perhaps somewhat more cosy
than that also not to underestimate - in terms
of beautiful simple words - English name?
Today it contains not only the inváriance
property, the famous Cramer-Rao lower
bound and asymptótic efficiency, but also
the factorisation criterion and Rao-Blackwell,
and as if it is not enough we conclude
with Lehmann-Scheffe, perhaps the most
useful theorem of all, though that might be
somewhat dangerous to say, because yóu are
as acute… as always.
The best way of teaching might be that you
all have a look at the sheets - those sheets
that are an art on itself, with those beautiful
formulas and exténsive sentences - and that I
will officiate as a recognisable voiceover. If you
- and I see you are from all parts of the world
- have any questions, please let me know,
because… only then I can help you. What do
you feel most comfortable with, stating your
questions in English, en Español, auf Deutsch,
‫ةيبرعلا يف‬, in het Nederlands, 中文, or just
in ordinary Français, that beautiful language,
la langue d’amour as the French themselves
like to call it somewhat chauvinistically,
that language that unfortunately is spoken
fluently, by fewer and fewer Dutchmen or in
Italiano?”
Name:
Tim Thijssen
Age:
22
Begin studies:
2004
After this imagenary experiment we can
conclude that we cannot be anything else
than happy with the people that teach us
now, with their very own style and good
knowledge of the subject, despite their
language skills do not exceed Ivo Niehe’s.
But we are grateful that their speed does not
exceed Mathijs van Nieuwkerk’s. |
57
n c o v e r t netw o r k s
T rie - angle
Networks are everywhere. From neurobiology to the internet, many insights have been obtained by using
mathematical techniques to uncover and dissect properties of entities engaged in stable patterns of
relationships. A totally different domain however – the domain of terrorism and irregular warfare – has been
mostly neglected by network scientists. It appears that ‘terrorism-experts’ differ widely in their opinions of
what their science is about. This article contributes to the confusion by presenting yet another vantage point.
Name:
Roy Lindelauf
Position:
PhD-student
The last couple of years have shown an
enormous increase in research concerning
covert networks. The tragedy of 9-11 and the
subsequent attacks in Madrid and London
undoubtedly provided a great stimulus in
(re-)focusing the attention of scholars on
the issue of terrorism and irregular warfare.
Such terrorist and insurgent phenomena
are traditionally studied by historians,
sociologists and political scientists. Among
others they study root-causes for terrorism,
the influence of religion on ideology, the role
of the media on popular support and many
other factors. One of the findings in recent
years is the organisational transformation
many terrorist networks are said to have
gone through. Prior to 9-11 Al-Qaeda’s
organisational structure was pretty well
known: a hierarchical organisation, led by
a core group of ideologists, consisting of
several subcommittees dealing with issues
such as media affairs, religion and military
operations. However, as events unfolded the
organisation morphed from this hierarchical
structure into a decentralised, cellular-like
organisation. It is well known that one of
Al Qaeda’s leading strategic architects was
well aware of the need to explicitly consider
which organisational structure to adopt.
More generally it is recognised that covert
organisations such as terrorist, insurgent or
criminal organisations, increasingly operate
in a networked fashion. Unfortunately this
was highlighted by the recent 26 November
Mumbai attack. During this event tactical
commanders and team members used
satellite and cell phones to communicate and
direct each other as the attacks progressed.
Considering such a wide range of
organisations operating covertly, it is
important to understand, analyse and predict
their topologies. In the remainder of this
article I present a model that is a first step in
this endeavour.
Figure 1 Example of a star
graph of order five
Secrecy, information and optimal network
structures
A distinguishing factor between covert
and overt organisations is the constant
dilemma these organisations face between
operating efficiently while maintaining
secrecy. Baker and Faulkner recognised that
“every secret organisation has to solve a
fundamental dilemma: how to stay secret
and at the same time ensure the necessary
coordination and control of its members.” 1
One way to deal with this dilemma is to
consider the communication structure the
organisation will adopt. Not doing so might
result in disastrous consequences as the CIA
soon discovered when trying to set up an
underground armed resistance group
in East Berlin during the 1950’s: as soon
as the Soviets discovered a member of
the network, structured as a complete
graph, they quickly identified and
arrested all other members. 2
We developed a model that explicitly
considers the above mentioned
dilemma by modelling individuals
in a covert organisation as a graph. 3
Thus, a vertex can be interpreted as
either an individual, a terrorist cell
or military unit. An edge between
individuals (cells, units) represents
exchange of information between the
corresponding individuals. Given a
certain amount of individuals in the
organisation a secrecy and information
measure were defined for every
possible communication structure
among these individuals.
Since the time delay for sending
information from one individual to
another is assumed to be proportional
to the number of edges the information
must travel, the average performance
I(g), of a network g Є G n in the sense of
information is defined by
n(n-1)
I(g) =
T(g)
The total distance in the graph g, is
denoted by T(g) and equals the sum
of the distances of each vertex to all
others, summed over all vertices. It
follows that 0 ≤ I(g) ≤ 1. If I(g) > I(g*)
then it is easier in an average sense to
send information around in network g
than in network g*. Second a secrecy
performance measure, S(g), is defined
by taking into account two key factors.
First, there is a certain probability
α i(g) that individual i will be exposed
as member of the network. Second, if
i is detected he will expose a fraction
of the network which we represent by
1 – u i(g). The secrecy measure then is
defined by S(g) = ∑ α i(g)u i(g) .
Since u i reflects the fraction of the
network that remains unexposed when
i is detected the secrecy measure can
be seen to represent the expected
fraction of the network that ‘survives’
upon detection of individual i.
An organisation, when setting up a
covert operation, is thus confronted with
conflicting objectives. Most important
are the objectives of minimising the
danger of exposure and the need
to ensure sufficient communication
possibilities between members. Such
multiple conflicting objectives often
arise in other real-world optimisation
problems. Solutions to these kinds of
problems consist of looking at a certain
subset of the design space, often the
Pareto set. In analysing the covert
organisation’s
balanced
trade-off
dilemma the design set corresponds to
all possible communication structures
the covert organisation can adopt.
By only considering communication
structures that are members of the
Pareto set (with regard to secrecy
and information), the design set is
reduced. This set can be reduced even
further by requiring the solution to
satisfy certain properties additional
to Pareto optimality, inspired by finite
Nash bargaining theory. 4 In the setting
of optimal covert network structures
the balanced bargaining solution will
lead to those graphs that maximise the
product of secrecy and information
measure, that is:
argmax {μ(g) = S(g)I(g) | g Є G n}.
Depending on the choices for α and
u it thus becomes interesting which
networks actually maximise the
product of information and secrecy. For
instance, assuming uniform probability
of exposure, i.e. α i = 1/n, and additionally
assuming that upon exposure of an
individual all his neighbours in the
network are exposed, it can be shown
that the optimal network in sense of
Nash bargaining equals that of a star
graph (see figure 1).
The star graph communication
structure was actually adopted during
the Cold War in the Netherlands. A
clandestine organisation with the
purpose of conducting subversive
Figure 2 Optimal graphs, average
performance, random walk exposure
information
measure
iЄV
1
Baker, W.E. and Faulkner, R. (1993). The Social Organization of Conspiracy: Illegal Networks in the Heavy Electrical Equipment
Industry. American Sociological Review 58(12): 837-860.
2
Weiner, T. (2007). Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA. Random House, Inc., New York.
58
3
Lindelauf, R.H.A., Borm, P.E.M. en Hamers, H.J.M. The Influence of Secrecy on the Communication Structure of Covert Networks. Social Networks, to appear 2009.
4
For details on finite Nash bargaining see for instance Mariotti, M. (1998). Nash bargaining Theory when the Number of Alternatives can be Finite. Social Choice and
Welfare 15(3): 413-421.
59
Rabobank
measure that captures worst-case performance. Additionally
organisations that consider a non-balanced trade-off with
regard to the secrecy vs. information dilemma were analysed.
Another aspect that can be accommodated for is the fact that
some interactions provide a higher risk to the organisation
than others. 8
I presented a short overview of the modelling of covert
networks by analysing the secrecy versus information
dilemma such organisations face. Ideas from game theory
and graph theory complement the more traditional mode
of analysis found in the political science domain. Being able
to divulge oneself into such mathematics while at the same
time studying terrorism and political violence is interesting
and I hope others will be stimulated to do so. As my boss
at the Netherlands Defence Academy likes to remind me
there is also a more serious side to this: some ages forgive
mediocrity. This is no such age. |
Figure 3: Approximate optimal graph, order
40 graph, random walk exposure.
References
Baker, W.E. and Faulkner, R. (1993). The Social Organization of Conspiracy: Illegal
activities in case of a Soviet invasion was created by the
allied forces. This so-called ‘stay-behind’ organisation
existed as a secret army in Italy and other countries across
Western Europe that were part of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization. 5 The Dutch branch of this army consisted of
two groups. One group consisted of single agents in contact
with a clandestine base (the hub of the star) 6. As operations
progressed, individuals that were very active would be
more likely to be exposed. Therefore we considered another
scenario in which the probability of exposure was set equal
to the equilibrium distribution of a random walk on the
graph. 7 This because the equilibrium distribution reflects
the centrality of individuals with regard to the exchange
of information in the network. Given such a scenario it was
shown that optimal network structures for low order graphs
are as shown in figure 2 below. In addition, higher order
networks were approximated by computer simulation, such
as the order 40 graph shown in figure 2.
Networks in the Heavy Electrical Equipment Industry. American Sociological
The model presented here is only a first approach in analysing
covert networks. Robustness of the model was checked
by analysing the results when applying an information
Weiner, T. (2007). Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA. Random House, Inc.,
Review 58(12): 837-860.
Engelen, D. (2005). De Nederlandse stay behind- organisatie in de Koude
Oorlog, 1945-1992. Den Haag, Pivot-rapport nr. 166.
Ganser, D. (2005). NATO’s Secret Armies, Operation Gladio and Terrorism in
Western Europe. Frank Cass: New York.
Lindelauf, R.H.A., Borm, P.E.M. en Hamers, H.J.M. The Influence of Secrecy on
the Communication Structure of Covert Networks. Social Networks, to appear
2009.
Lindelauf, R.H.A., Borm, P.E.M., Hamers, H.J.M. Mathematical Methods in
Counter-terrorism. In Memon, N.; Farley, J.D.; Hicks, D.L.; Rosenorn, T. (Eds.). On
Heterogeneous Covert Networks. Springer-Verlag to appear feb. 2009.
Mariotti, M. (1998). Nash bargaining Theory when the Number of Alternatives
can be Finite. Social Choice and Welfare 15(3): 413-421.
New York.
5
Ganser, D. (2005). NATO’s Secret Armies, Operation Gladio and Terrorism in Western Europe. Frank Cass: New York.
6
Engelen, D. (2005). De Nederlandse stay behind- organisatie in de Koude Oorlog, 1945-1992. Den Haag, Pivot-rapport nr. 166.
7
See footnote 3.
8
Lindelauf, R.H.A., Borm, P.E.M., Hamers, H.J.M. Mathematical Methods in Counter-terrorism. In Memon, N.; Farley, J.D.; Hicks, D.L.; Rosenorn, T. (Eds.). On Heterogeneous
Covert Networks. Springer-Verlag to appear feb. 2009.
61
ti l l a b ea u ti f u l min d ?
spe c ial : john nash
At the age of 21, John Forbes Nash wrote his 27-page dissertation outlining Nash Equilibriums. The Nash
Equilibrium is a solution concept in non-cooperative game theory, in which each player has no incentive
to deviate unilaterally from his or her own strategy. A lot of daily-life situations can be modelled as a noncooperative game.
Nash was very surprised when
his ideas about non-cooperative
games were rejected by John von
Neumann, one of the founders of
game theory. He told Nash that his
result was trivial, no more, no less. A
lot of mathematicians admire Nash’s
work more for the pure mathematics
rather than his contributions to game
theory. Specifically, they admire his
two embedding theorems, important
results in abstract mathematics. In 1958,
Nash hoped to win the Fields Medal
(Nobel Prize for mathematicians), but
unfortunately he was not awarded the
prize. This disappointment triggered
schizophrenia in Nash and he suffered
from it for a long time. Nash says that
his brain was not working very well
during that period. In the mid-eighties,
his schizophrenia slowly disappeared.
According to him, he rejected all
irrational thoughts.
Nowadays, Nash is working on a new
economic theory. He would like to have
a standard unit for money, like watt
as a standard unit for power. He says
there is too much uncertainty: if you
lend out some money for a long time,
then you do not know whether or not
the money will be worthless when it is
returned. If you could base the value
of money on underlying commodities
then there would be less risk. Nash
stresses that you should base the value
of money not only on one material,
but on many materials. If, for instance,
a technological breakthrough makes
it possible to mine such a material
more easily, then the value of money
becomes worthless.
The committee asked professor Eric
van Damme to shed some light on the
life of John Nash. Is John Nash still a
beautiful mind? What does he think of
Nash’ new theories as a reaction to the
credit crunch? [SvB]
Reference: NRC Handelsblad 12-20-2008: “Nog
John Nash
altijd een schitterend brein”
Eric van Damme [Full Professor]
Although John Nash and I had already met a
few times before, I only got to better know him
on the occasion of the festivities associated
with the award of the Nobel Prize in Economics
in December 1994, which John shared with
John Harsanyi and Reinhard Selten. It is
tradition that all Nobel Prize Winners come
to Sweden for an entire week, among others
to give seminars and speeches. John had
recovered from his illness not long before and
he did not feel confident to participate in the
academic programme. The Nobel committee,
therefore, decided to organise a workshop in
his honour, in which Harsanyi, Selten and two
younger game theorists would comment on his
work. I was one of the latter and was fortunate
to spend the entire week with the Nobel Prize
winners in Stockholm.
One night during dinner, I asked Nash how
Von Neumann had reacted when Nash told
him about his equilibrium concept and the
existence proof. Nash’s eyes started to twinkle,
and he mumbled something like “I finally have
beaten him”. A very competitive spirit emerged.
It became clear to me that, at the time, people
at Princeton had only one goal in mind -to be
the best scientist/mathematician, and that Von
Neumann must have been almost like God.
Von Neumann classified Nash’s discovery as
something trivial, but, in fact, he was simply
envious of not having made the discovery
himself. Ex post, the equilibrium concept is
obvious, but it requires a true genius to discover
it.
I also asked Nash how Morgenstern, the
economist and co-founder of game theory, had
responded. I was particularly anxious, since
in his earlier work Morgenstern had grappled
with the same idea, but had not found it, and
had even claimed that equilibrium would not
always exist. Nash responded: “Why would
Morgenstern think differently than Von
Neumann?” I did not immediately understand
1
62
that answer. Subsequent discussion made two
things clear. According to Nash, Morgenstern
would never have dissented from Von
Neumann’s opinion. Secondly, as Morgenstern
was ‘only’ an economist, his opinion was only of
marginal importance to Nash.
I have continued to interact with Nash since
then. One time, students from Rotterdam
invited him over to award him a prize, and I
served as host for John and his (former) wife
Alicia. I also acted as a taxi driver, bringing
the pair to Tilburg, where John would give a
seminar, and showing them some tourist spots
along the way. In the car, I learned a lot about
homo economicus and about the difference
between a rational conversation and what the
Dutch call a “gezellig gesprek”.
Since 1994, I have attended lectures of Nash
on three topics: Einstein’s relativity theory,
the theory of ideal money, and bargaining
theory. I did not understand anything about
the first topic. Concerning the second, I was not
convinced by Nash’s ideas. I view the approach
taken in the paper of Kiyotaki and Wright, which
builds on Nash’s bargaining theory, to be more
promising1. The third project aims to extend
Nash’s two-person variable threat bargaining
game to the general n-person case. If successful,
that could be another break-through. I know
that game theorists of my generation are
working with Nash on this project. I believe
they are only making slow progress.
Name:
Eric van Damme
Position:
Full Professor
The answer to the question from the title?
John Nash was born in 1928; Johan Cruijff, the
famous Dutch football player only in 1947.
Johan does no longer play in the Eredivisie,
nor in the Dutch national team. It is inevitable;
abilities decay with time. So it is with Nash,
but this does not make his past achievements
any less significant. They are still a source of
inspiration and a joy to read, also for students
from this generation. |
“On Money as a Medium of Exchange”, Journal of Political Economy 97 (1989), 927-54
63
l o ts o f c he r r y t u r n o v e r s
G eneral members meeting and drink at babbus
Watson Wyatt
I can vividly remember the first General Members Meeting (GMM) of this academic year, in which the quorum was
not reached because of only two members. My girlfriend and I were too late for this meeting and we therefore
failed to reach the quorum in a long period of time. Having in mind the consequences of being late, we were forced
to leave the dishes on the kitchen table and to rush to the Gallery, where the third GMM was about to begin.
Arriving at this cosy location with all kinds of jars and
pots on the shelves, we were welcomed by the staff
in English! At 7.25 pm, after everyone had finished
his or her drink, the board of Asset | Econometrics
silently sat down at the table facing all its active
members. Marije Alblas struck the hammer with a
noise that resounded in the room for a few seconds.
Despite our efforts, the quorum was not reached, so
the next GMM was to take place in a few minutes.
And so it would be. After a few minutes, a total of
13 members witnessed the second installation of
the board on the opposite side of the table. Dennis
received the honour of being voting commissioner
and Marije started with a clear description of the
board’s focus points for this year.
One of these points of focus is to organise activities
for large groups. Because of the increase in the
number of students in Econometrics and Operations
Research, it is not possible to organise activities with
a small capacity, such as go-kart racing. The Drinks
and Activities Committee solved this problem by
offering a laser game activity in addition to the gokart racing in January. In my opinion, this worked
out very well! The board extrapolated the figures
considering the increase and concluded that the
number of active members would soon reach a
level beyond what the committees were able to
deal with. The board still needs to find a solution to
this problem, but a lot of good ideas were proposed
during the meeting.
Another goal is the integration of new freshmen,
both Dutch and foreign. The board wants to realise
this by means of an introductory activity at the
beginning of the academic year. The board expects
that this will improve the relationship among
freshmen. As I already suspected, the underlying
reason is that at the same time they also get to
know the association and as a result take part in
a lot of the activities organised! And as I foresaw,
this subject caused a huge discussion and after a
lot of suggestions to improve this activity, we were
ready for the next agenda items. Emile presented
the activities of the first semester and after this we
took a short break with delicious cherry turnovers
combined with beer.
The meeting continued with the presentation
of the activities for the second semester. Stefan
literally made sure that every word about the
upcoming activities was said! Then the budget was
extensively discussed. A few critical questions were
asked considering the financing of LOES. Although
the funding would be favourable for the board, they
promised to look into it again. Another subject of
discord was the depreciation of the website and the
book-keeping for the lustrum. Fortunately, all these
problems have been reviewed and will be solved.
Asset | Econometrics should be proud of its (former
active) members for being so critical and helpful at
the same time.
The GMM concluded with reports from the advisory
organs and a discussion about the protection of
the flag of the association. The last items were,
surprisingly, discussed in Dutch instead of English,
like the other items on the agenda. Up till then the
whole meeting had been in English, even though
there were no foreign members present at all! After
the discharge of Dennis as voting commissioner
(luckily for him, there was no voting during this
GMM), the final strike of the hammer and my
second cherry turnover, we went to café Babbus for
drinks and some peanuts. There was no theme for
the drinks, but the lustrum committee illustrated
its promotional skills by hanging up some posters
presenting the lustrum week that was to take place
in February. I would like to thank Elske for celebrating
her birthday during the drinks, since we all received
a slice of cake. However, being threatened by one
of my closest friends, I will not give a detailed
description of the drinks. My conclusion is that
serving free beers until the end of the night is not
a responsible decision! Luckily, the DJ was kind
enough to play all the requests and everyone could
go home with their minds at rest. For those still
interested in the details: visit the website for the
pictures and don’t forget to write the next date for
drinks in your diaries! |
Name:
Frans Fonville
Age:
20
Begin studies:
2007
65
eat d ish with c h o r i z o
PricewaterhouseCoopers
c ooking with the c ommittee
The Almanac Committee surprised the Nekst Committee with this culinary tour de force. Hettie Boonman,
secretary of the Almanac Committee, was so kind and brave as to feed the hungry mouths of her fellow
committee members and pass on the recipe. The meal was positively received, as we can tell by the average
grade of 7.6 mailed to us. The meal costs around three Euros per person.
Pour the cream over the top and finish by sprinkling the dish
with cheese. By now your oven will be hot enough, so put
the dish in and wait for about twenty minutes. Your meal is
ready now, enjoy!
Variation: You might like to use salami instead of chorizo.
The final result
Shopping list
five persons
9 leeks
200 gram chorizo
e 0 spoon olive oil
5 2 gram butter
e 0 kilo mince
2 spoons chopped coriander
900 gram pre-cooked potato slices
200 gram grated cheese
5/2 dl cream
5 dl cream
2 packets of meringues (in Dutch, ‘schuimkoekjes’)
1 packet of ‘klop-klop’ (there are two bags in it, you will need
both of them)
Nougatine
Round cake tin with a diameter of 24 cm
Recipe for the meat dish with chorizo
Preheat the oven to 180˚C. Slice the leeks and cut the chorizo
into small cubes. Heat the oil and butter, add the leeks and
stir for a minute or two. Add the mince and chorizo. Fry the
meat until cooked and most of the fluid has evaporated. Then
finely chop the coriander (if not already done) and add this
to the mince and leeks. Make sure you have a large dish to
put in the oven. Layer half of the potatoes on the bottom of
the dish, then spoon the meat mixture over the potatoes in
the dish. Cover the mince with the rest of the potatoes.
Recipe for the ice cake
Find a bowl; put both the cream and the contents of both
bags of ‘klop-klop’ into it. Whisk until it becomes whipped
cream (make sure you stop whisking in time, otherwise you
will have sweet butter instead of whipped cream!). Crumble
about ¼ of the packet of meringues with your hands and
sprinkle them over the bottom of the cake tin, then crumble
the rest and carefully stir them into the whipped cream. Pour
the mixture on top of the crumbled meringues in the cake tin.
Now, all you have to do is put the cake into your refrigerator
and wait for a day.
Reaction from the eaters
When I entered the kitchen, everything had already been
prepared and a nice oven dish was being cooked. The
meal looked really good, and tasted even better. With the
combination of potatoes, meat and some vegetables, it was
actually healthy. To make up for this healthy main course, the
dessert was slightly less healthy. With a cake of frozen cream
and peanuts, Hettie proved she really is a kitchen princess.
We had a great evening with the committee and I would like
to thank Hettie for the hospitality and her time and effort.
[Mathijs Jansen]
We as the Almanac Committee were invited to Hettie’s
house to enjoy a homemade dinner. I expected Hettie to
serve mussels, because her roots lie in the Dutch province
of Zeeland. But after a very long trip to the North of Tilburg
she surprised me with a potato, mince meat, chorizo and
leek casserole. After some bread and butter we were finally
allowed to taste the deliciously smelling meal. And it tasted
at least as good as it smelled. The dessert was the climax of
the evening. Hettie made an ice-cream cake out of whipped
cream, meringue and nuts. Altogether it was a great meal!
[Bas Hamers]
For the next ‘Cooking with the Committee’ the cherf will be a
member of the Promotion committee.
66
wan t o m l o o p
puzzle
Being invited to take care of this puzzle column, I would like to take the opportunity to draw your attention
to Kwon Tom Loop puzzles. The rules are readily given and the level of diculty ranges from trivial to diabolic.
A Kwon Tom Loop puzzle consists of a
rectangular grid of dots. Some squares
formed by the dots contain a clue. The
goal is to find a closed loop of horizontal
and vertical edges, such that each square
containing a clue reveals how many of its
sides are edges of the loop. Not every node
need to be visited by the loop. That is all.
Here is an example and its solution:
On the Internet there is a possibility to join
a daily puzzle competition. The following
Kwon Tom Loop might be the easiest puzzle
of the competition since it has the shortest
solving time of all: 25 seconds! This might
be hard to believe at first sight, it is already
hard to produce the loop in such a short
time, even when the solution is known. On
the other hand, the world record solving
Rubik’s cube is 7.08 seconds ...
one. Of course your chances are best if
you submit two correct solutions.
White’s last move cannot have been cxd8R
because black does not have a last move
before that. Only Ne6-d8 is possible, but
illegal because white would have been
in check. Now consider cxb8R. The only
black piece left to take is Ra8. As the pawn
should have taken another piece to get
to c7, this is not possible. Ra8xb8, taking
the rook on b8 also leaves black without
a last move, so the only possible solution
is a7xb8R. Black’s last move was Ra8-b8 or
Ra8xb8.
Name:
Hans Reijnierse
Position:
Associate Professor
Since I would like to contribute a puzzle of
my own, I have chosen to conclude with
the liar catcher you see on the right.
Liar catchers have the same format as Kwon
Tom Loop puzzles. Again a closed loop has
to be found. The difference is that all clues
inside the loop must be false, all clues
outside the loop must be true. Hence, the
loop catches all lying clues. Squares not
containing clues are allowed to be situated
both on the inside and on the outside. On
the next page, there is an example and its
solution:
68
leaves four black pieces for the captures,
which are: two knights, the queen and the
promoted a-pawn.
Like always there is a crate of beer or a ‘vlaai’
to win. Since there are two puzzles and only
one prize the following procedure will be
followed. If we receive correct solutions of
both puzzles, first we toss which puzzle
will be used to choose the prize winner. As
a consequence, submitting the solution
of the most difficult puzzle gives a better
chance to win than submitting the other
Solution last puzzle
The right solution is: axb8R.
Proof:
As c7-c6 makes the position illegal, white
must have taken a black piece on his last
move. There are four options:
Ra8xb8, a7xb8R (This means, pawn a7
takes a piece on b8 and, promotes to a
rook), c7xb8R and c7xd8R.
Given the bishop on c8 and the black
pawns, the white rooks on d8 and e8 are
both promoted pawns. For this, there
were 4 pawn captures required: bxc7,
dxc7 and twice cxd8R. As there are pawns
on g7 and e7, the black f8 bishop has
never moved. Also the h8-rook cannot
have been captured on d8, as this would
have involved leapfrogging the white
king. Notice that the a8 rook cannot have
been captured on either c7 or d8. This
The Nekst committee only received two
correct submissions. Therefore, we had to
choose a winner at random. That winner
is Dennis Jaheruddin. He can pick up
his crate of beer or a ‘vlaai’ at the Astrics
room.
Prior puzzle
69
u ats c h !
remarkable quotes
Fortunately, the editorial staff of Nekst received many quotes that relate to the study of Econometrics and
to the activities organised by Asset | Econometrics. Therefore, a very well-filled page with some striking and
sensational quotes! Please mail all remarkable quotes you have heard to [email protected]!
English quotes
Mr Ten Raa during APSE:
“Who thinks it is a clockwise movement?” (No hands rise)
“Who thinks it is a counterclockwise movement?” (About ten
hands rise; about thirty people did not raise their hands)
Ten Raa (laughing): “The rest is neutral?”
Ten Raa: “Well, in this case democracy is right.”
Freerk Post: “So the movement is neutral?”
Stefan Damen vraagt aan een werknemer van ORTEC Finance
of hij de case gaat verzorgen op de OID, waarop de werknemer
in kwestie antwoordt: “Nee, ik ben de CEO.”
Lars van Heijst tijdens de Active Members Meeting: “Een
weekendje Berlijn. Dat is als de Hart-van-Brabant loop, maar
dan in Berlijn en zonder de loop.”
Inge Pulles boven op de piste: “Ik kies Groen Links”.
Mr Ashayeri about companies who have other companies
that transport their commodities:
“It is like a marriage, you cannot just go to another partner
every day. You have to stick to each other for at least a couple
of years.”
At the OID during the case of the Settlers of Tilburg, Sanne
van Helvert tries to trade some money for cards with her
boyfriend Remco van Laak.
Remco: “I will trade them for 1500.”
Sanne: “I only want to pay 1000, otherwise I will break up
with you.”
Dolf Talman during Micro Economics: “L always goes in front
of K, as it does in the alphabet!”
Dutch quotes
Stéphanie van Breda vraagt aan Rik van Beers: “Hee, heb je
een nieuwe telefoon?” Rik: “Nee, dat is mijn MP3-speler.”
Marije Alblas op de vooravond van de borrel van de
Smeetskring: “Hee, hoe laat gaan we naar de smorrel van de
Beetskring?”
Servaas van Bilsen tijdens een Nekst vergadering: “Kroketten
zijn serieus gezond, want er zit vitamine C in!”
Pascal Heuijerjans tijdens de Active Members Meeting: “In
het Engels haal ik altijd namen door elkaar.”
Pascal tijdens dezelfde avond: “Op zich leuk zo’n congres,
maar het moet wel iets zijn.”
Frank Steenbergen over de wapenwet in de Verenigde Staten:
“Ik zou me niet veiliger voelen met die wapenlegitimatie
daar.”
Tijdens de tweede halve finale Bossaball zegt Frank
Steenbergen tegen Nelleke van Boxtel: “Heb je net onze
halve finale gezien?”
Nelleke: “Nee, maar welke wedstrijd is dit dan?”
Frank: “Dit is de andere halve finale.”
Nelleke: “De anderhalve finale, wat is dat nou weer?”
Tim Thijssen speelt Stef Stunt Piloot en probeert zijn verlies
te rechtvaardigen: “Wat een slecht materiaal! Is dit de
kinderversie ofzo?!”
Ramon tegen Evelien: “Ey, meneer de voorzitter!”
Ramon van Schaijk over de quiz: “Wat is je geslacht: rood,
zwart of blauw?”
Gelach… “Ik bedoelde de knopjes hoor!”
Harold van Heijst zoekt op de iPod van Harmen Boersma een
foto van Harmens zusje:
Harold: “Ik heb er een! Kijk!”
Harmen: “Dat is mijn broertje.”
Marieke: “Ik weet echt niet wanneer een bal buitenspel is.”
Manon Geertsen: “Initials, dat zijn toch tussenvoegsels?”
Sjoerd: “Een logo op de borst van je overhemd: alsof je op
een bouwmarkt werkt.”
Sjoerd: “Er zijn ook kunstacademie-meisjes bij de painting
workshop.”
Ramon: “Staan die ook model?”
Marieke van der Ven: “Tijdens het versieren van de zaal van
het gala zakt je haar uit!”
Evelien Kerkmeijer: “Dus geen zware dingen tillen, Manon.”
Sjoerd: “Heb je dat gehoord Frans? Och, anders lees je het
wel na in de notulen!” (Frans is secretaris van de betreffende
commissie, red.)
Ben van der Genugten tijdens een college regressieanalyse:
“Een vrouw is een lineaire combinatie van een constante en
een man.”
Marieke van der Ven tijdens het afsluitend diner van de
lustrumcommissie: “Is de fish and chips ook met frietjes?”
Yorick Stoepker bij Auctions and Public Sector Economics:
“Evelien sms’te of ik naar APSE kom. Wat is dat eigenlijk?”
Stefan tijdens een bestuursvergadering wanneer de activiteit
‘bowlen’ besproken wordt: “Dan word ik wéér uitgelachen als
ik die bal weer eens in de gootsteen gooi.”
Tijdens een vergadering van de OID kijkt Tessa Bakkers tien
seconden lang op haar telefoon.
Frank Steenbergen en Linda Vos: “Ja, da’s trakteren he!”
Tessa: “Ik keek alleen hoe laat het was!”
Frank: “Jaja, zolang.... Hoe laat was het eigenlijk?”
Tessa:”... eeh…”
Linda Vos tijdens een vergadering van de Nekst: “Jongens,
we worden in het bootje genomen!” (In het ootje genomen,
red.)
Marije tegen haar bestuursgenoten op het centraal station
van Nijmegen: “Laatst zat ik echt in een prettige trein.”
Stefan: “Wat voor een trein was dat dan?”
Marije: “Ehm, ja een gele.”
Herbert Hamers stelt zich voor bij het eerste college van
Graphs & Games: “My name is Herbert Hamers. I live here at
the university and sometimes I go home.”
Sjoerd
Timmermans
luttele
minuten
na
een
lustrumvergadering tijdens het vernietigen van een zojuist
gemaakt notitievel: “Ben ik nou mijn actiepunten aan het
shredderen?!”
e c ti f i c ati o ns
c on c erning c ontent
Where people work, errors are made. Therefore, some errors concerning contents showed up in the prior
edition of Nekst. In this section we rectify these errors.
In the colophon, Marije Alblas was missing. She should be in
it, because she wrote the article on behalf of the board.
On page 56, an error was made in the recipe. four eggs
should be used instead of 22. Although 22 eggs might be an
interesting variation, the Nekst committee used only four. |
On page number 29 two errors were made in the interview
with Roger Laeven. Roger Laeven prefers Amsterdam over
Tilburg and prefers wine over beer.
Stefan, Linda en Marije zitten samen brak te zijn op de kamer
de dag na de biercantus.
Marije staat op en zegt: “Jongens, ik ben even naar de
coffeeshop.” (copyshop, red.)
70
71
r a d u ates
Congratulations !
Over the past months, the following econometricians obtained their Master’s degree. Asset |
Econometrics would like to congratulate:
Name
Title
Supervisors : Mr. G. den Heijer (Master) QF/AS
: Evaluation of the performance of the Lee-
Carter model in the Baltic States
: Prof. dr. B. Melenberg, Dr. M. Salm
Name
Title
Supervisors
: Mr. M.P. Nuijsenburg (Master) ME/EM
: Consumermodule WoOON2006: An application of demand and preferences in the Dutch housing market
: Dr. O. Boldea, R. van Oest, Drs. T. Luijten
Name
Title
Supervisors
: Mr. S.B. Wienbelt (Master) QF/AS
: Market Risk Measurement for Non Diversified Portfolios: Empirical Applications and Sensitivity Analysis
: Dr.ir. G.W.P. Charlier, Dr. F.C. Drost, Drs. H.J.W.M. Staal
l anning
to c on c lude
Tuesday, 31 March
Cycling dinner
On this day you will visit the homes of your fellow students to
enjoy a meal there. At each home you will prepare or eat a part of
the dinner. Afterwards we will meet each other in the city centre
for a drink.
Monday, 30 March until Thursday, 9 April
Economic Business Week Tilburg (EBT)
This year the eleventh edition of the EBT will take place. The EBT
has something to offer for each student. It is a good opportunity
to get in touch with the participating companies and to find out
more about what you can do after your studies. Furthermore, you
can develop your skills during the Training Day and the Assessment
Centre. During the Case Day, Robeco will provide a case especially
for econometricians. For further information about the EBT please
visit www.ebtilburg.nl.
Tuesday, 21 April
Freshmen Activity & Drink
The Freshmen committee is busy organising its final event for this
academic year. This activity is accessible to all freshmen. There is
also a drink on this evening which will take place in Café Babbus.
Friday, 24 April until Sunday 26 April
Active Members Weekend (AMW)
The AMW committee is busy organising an unforgettable weekend
for all active members. According to Asset | Econometrics traditions,
nobody but the organising committee knows where the weekend
will take place and what we will do. It is a weekend that you cannot
miss as an active member, so sign up if you have not done this
yet!
Tuesday, 28 April
Beer Cantus
The seventh COdE Beer Cantus will take place at La Vida. The
evening consists of singing songs and drinking beer (or ‘ranja’).
Anyone you ask about this activity will confirm that. Tickets can
be bought at the Astrics room (E 110) in the weeks prior to the
cantus.
Thursday, 14 May
Symposium
This day the symposium titled: ‘A new Financial World: the Day after
the Credit Crunch’ will take place. On this day light will be shed on
several fields, like governmental policy, pensions and companies.
Big speakers like Mr Brouwer (Director DNB), Mr Riemen (Executive
Director VVB) and Mr Van Welie (CEO ORTEC Finance) will provide a
lecture. Professor Beck is the chairman of the day. More information
can be found on www.aNewFinancialWorld.nl.
72
Aegon
SNS reaal

third edition, March 2009

Transcription

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