The world in 2050

The world in 2050:
expectations and forecasts
Astana, 2015
THE WORLD IN 2050: HSBC Bank Global
Research FORECASTS
AUTHORS
FORECAST PERIOD
Main
characteristi
cs
2011- 2050
CUSTOMER
HSBC Bank
Global Research
HSBC Bank
KEY CONCLUSIONS
DEMOGRAPHY
GLOBAL ECONOMY
19 of 30 advanced economies in
2050 will be among the
expanding economies

47%
Expanding
economies

Others
53%
 Global GDP growth will

average 3%
Expanding markets will be the
main drivers of growth: their
contribution to world GDP is
higher than that of developed
countries doubled

Demographic changes will
largely determine the
opportunities for economic
growth (+/- 2.5% GDP
growth)
The recession of labor is
typical for Japan (37%),
Korea (32%), Singapore,
China, Russia and several
European countries
The growth will occur in
Saudi Arabia and Egypt
(70%), as well as in Malaysia,
India, Indonesia.
MEGATRENDS



By 2050, the influence of
the East will increase due to
the significant
development of China and
India
China will become the
number one economy in
the world, India takes third
place of leading
economies of the world
Demographic changes
(aging of population) in
Europe will lead to a
significant recession in
Sweden, Belgium, Austria,
Denmark and Norway
(come out of the 30
developed countries)
THE WORLD IN 2050
Main
characteristi
cs
AUTHORS
FORECAST PERIOD
2050
RELEASE DATE
John Andrews,
The Economist
2012
KEY CONCLUSIONS
DEMOGRAPHY
GLOBAL ECONOMY


To the next 10 years the
developing countries will
grow at a faster pace,
China will lead in terms of
economy. However, in
2050 China's GDP growth
will be 2.5%
Most developing region to
the next 40 years will be
Asia (4.7%) that is followed
by sub-Saharan Africa
(4.4%), the Middle East
and North Africa (3.9%).





The world's population will
reach 9 billion, and the
numbers continue to grow
The most significant growth will
show Africa (increased by 3
times).
India will become the most
populous country in 2050 (1.7
billion).
The "Demographic dividend"
from the growth of the
employable population will
be0.5 - 1% of GDP
By 2050, per100 persons of
employable population will
have 58 dependents.
MEGATRENDS



2050 will be the era of Asia:
China and India will
become the first and third
world economies
By 2050, the world will be at
70% urbanized, which leads
to the appearance of 30
cities with a population of
not less than 10 million
Over the next 40 years, the
world will witness the
emergence of a "global
middle class"
THE WORLD IN 2050: BRICS countries: perspectives,
challenges and opportunities
Main
characteristi
cs
FORECAST PERIOD
2050
AUTHORS
RELEASE DATE
PwC
2013
КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ
KEY CONCLUSIONS
ВЫВОДЫ
Risks and opportunities
GLOBAL ECONOMY




The average annual
growth of the global
economy will be 3%
China will surpass the
United States in 2017 in
purchasing power parity
India will be the third
"world giant" in 2050
China's economy begins
to cool down after 2020.
Due to the aging of the
employable population
Risks


Ecological risks
Demographic changes:
an aging population
Opportunities
Opportunities for:

Retailers working with the
franchise

Owners of major global
brands (Apple, Zara, Ikea,
etc.)

Creative Industries

Service providers in the field
of health and education
China's contribution to global
GDP will be the most
significant in 2050
20%
China
USA
India
EU
17%
14%
12%
100 VIABLE CITIES
1913: 10%
of the world's
population lived in
cities
2013: 50%
of the world
population live in
cities
2050: 75%
of the world's
population will live in
cities
The Rockefeller Foundation researches shows that the process of urbanization will occur
everywhere. By 2050, three-quarters of the population will live in cities, which will contribute
to the development of the urban economy.
UN FORECASTS
URBANIZATION
2 of 10 people of Earth
lived in cities
4 of 10 people of Earth
lived in cities
5 of 10 people of Earth
live in cities
6 of 10 people of Earth
will live in cities
7 of 10 people of Earth
will live in cities
Calculations of UN-HABITAT considering million-strong cities
USAID FORECASTS
1987: 5 billion
people
1999: 6 billion
people
2011: 7 billion
people
2011: 9 billion
people
Due to the growth of the world population, the needs of food
production will increase by
70%