Quantifying urban street configuration for improvements in air
Transcription
Quantifying urban street configuration for improvements in air
Atmospheric Environment 72 (2013) 1e9 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Atmospheric Environment journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/atmosenv Quantifying urban street configuration for improvements in air pollution models Marloes Eeftens a, *, Johan Beekhuizen a, Rob Beelen a, Meng Wang a, Roel Vermeulen a, b, Bert Brunekreef a, b, Anke Huss a, Gerard Hoek a a b Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80178, 3508 TD Utrecht, The Netherlands Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands h i g h l i g h t s < Air pollution models struggle to accurately predict concentrations in street canyons. < We developed an automated GIS-based method to derive quantitative canyon indicators. < Our approach is based on 3-D building data, which are increasingly available. < The derived indicators may be used in both land use regression and dispersion models. < The canyon indicators helped explain pollution contrasts of NO2 in the Netherlands. a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: Received 16 October 2012 Received in revised form 21 January 2013 Accepted 5 February 2013 In many built-up urban areas, tall buildings along narrow streets obstruct the free flow of air, resulting in higher pollution levels. Input data to account for street configuration in models are difficult to obtain for large numbers of streets. We describe an approach to calculate indicators of this “urban canyon effect” using 3-dimensional building data and evaluated whether these indicators improved spatially resolved land use regression (LUR) models. Concentrations of NO2 and NOx were available from 132 sites in the Netherlands. We calculated four indicators for canyon effects at each site: (1) the maximum aspect ratio (building height/width of the street) between buildings on opposite sides of the street, (2) the mean building angle, which is the angle between the horizontal street level and the line of sight to the top of surrounding buildings, (3) median building angle and (4) “SkyView Factor” (SVF), a measure of the total fraction of visible sky. Basic LUR models were computed for both pollutants using common predictors such as household density, landuse and nearby traffic intensity. We added each of the four canyon indicators to the basic LUR models and evaluated whether they improved the model. The calculated aspect ratio agreed well (R2 ¼ 0.49) with aspect ratios calculated from field observations. Explained variance (R2) of the basic LUR models without canyon indicators was 80% for NO2 and 76% for NOx, and increased to 82% and 78% respectively if SVF was included. Despite this small increase in R2, contrasts in SVF (10the90th percentile) resulted in substantial concentration differences of 5.56 mg m3 in NO2 and 10.9 mg m3 in NOx. We demonstrated a GIS based approach to quantify the obstruction of free air flow by buildings, applicable for large numbers of streets. Canyon indicators could be valuable to consider in air pollution models, especially in areas with low- and high-rise canyons. Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Street configuration Aspect ratio Urban morphometry Land use regression Air pollution Geographic information systems Canyon Nitrogen oxides 1. Introduction Abbreviations: AR, Aspect Ratio; GIS, Geographic information system; LUR, Land use regression; SVF, SkyView Factor. * Corresponding author. Tel.: þ31 30 253 94 96; fax: þ31 30 253 94 99. E-mail address: [email protected] (M. Eeftens). 1352-2310/$ e see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.02.007 In recent years, the predictive ability of urban air pollution models has improved substantially with the increasing use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and common availability of accurate digital geographical data (Hoek et al., 2008; Jerrett et al., 2005a). While early air pollution studies compared concentration 2 M. Eeftens et al. / Atmospheric Environment 72 (2013) 1e9 levels between cities (Dockery et al., 1993; Pope et al., 2002; Götschi et al., 2005), focus has recently shifted towards exploring intra-urban spatial contrasts in greater detail (Beelen et al., 2007; Hoek et al., 2002; Jerrett et al., 2005b). Despite these efforts, estimating air pollutant concentrations in urban built-up areas remains challenging, as many individual sources of pollution, meteorological conditions and different micro-environments may each affect concentrations independently, as well as interacting with each other (Vardoulakis et al., 2003). In built-up urban environments, local meteorology is largely affected by buildings which cause turbulence and alter airflow (Vardoulakis et al., 2003). Several studies have used field observations and models to explore the behaviour of air pollutants in street canyons; narrow streets lined by tall buildings on either side (Solazzo et al., 2009; Eliasson et al., 2006). In street canyons, pollutants emitted by road traffic are trapped in a vortex formed within the canyon, limiting vertical air exchange with the atmosphere above the buildings (Vardoulakis et al., 2003). This results in high local pollutant concentrations which often do not comply with environmental standards (Vardoulakis et al., 2007). Local monitoring networks are often not dense enough to capture the strong spatial gradients around urban canyons, and often overlook these pollution hotspots (Vardoulakis et al., 2011). Street canyons are commonly defined by the aspect ratio (AR); the ratio between building height (H) and street width (W). The aspect ratio is an indicator of the amount of interference with synoptic wind patterns, and notably affects the strength and number of vortices inside the canyon (Vardoulakis et al., 2003). Most case studies focussed on relatively deep canyons (AR > 1.3), which are uncommon in the Netherlands. The trapping properties of low-rise canyons (w0.5 AR 1) have largely been overlooked while these are more typical for medium-size (European) cities (Vardoulakis et al., 2007). 1.1. Canyons in land use regression Land-use regression (LUR) models have become an increasingly used method to assess spatial contrasts in air pollution levels (Hoek et al., 2008; Jerrett et al., 2005a). An increasing number of epidemiological studies use LUR models for estimating individual exposure levels for non-network locations, such as the addresses of cohort subjects (e.g. (Morgenstern et al., 2007; Beelen et al., 2008)). LUR models use a spatially dense network of measured pollution concentrations. Each monitoring site is characterized by a set of potential predictors, such as population density, land use, physical geography and various traffic-related variables, obtained through a GIS. Stochastic modelling is used to determine which predictors best explain the pollution concentrations (Hoek et al., 2008). Several LUR studies have identified difficulties to model the increased level of pollutants in street canyons. Beelen et al. (2007) concluded that it was impossible to predict extremely high concentrations of NO and black smoke at a moderate-traffic monitoring site located in a street canyon. In the TRAPCA study (1999e2000), LUR models improved in both Munich and Stockholm if an indicator variable for canyon was included (Brauer et al., 2003). However, the canyon indicator was obtained through manual classification, which made it unfeasible to use this predictor for estimating exposure for large cohorts. A study by Su et al. (2008) was the first to use GIS-derived ARs in a LUR model for downtown Vancouver, using high-resolution satellite (ETMþ) photographs to identify buildings and their shadows to estimate building height and calculate aspect ratios. LUR models improved from 56% to 67% for NO2 and from 72% to 85% for NO after inclusion of the aspect ratio predictor variables (Su et al., 2008). This approach is however not easily applicable in cities with irregular street patterns, such as most European cities. 1.2. Canyons in dispersion modelling While only few LUR studies have incorporated street configuration in their models, it is a common variable used in dispersion modelling (Vardoulakis et al., 2007). Examples include the OSPM (Operational Street Pollution Model) (Hertel and Berkowicz, 1989) and the Dutch CAR II (Calculation of Air pollution from Road traffic) model (Eerens et al., 1993). A major limitation is that input data on street configuration are obtained through manual characterization. 1.3. Quantifying the canyon effect Although air pollution models benefit from including canyon indicator variables (Brauer et al., 2003) or aspect ratios (Su et al., 2008), these metrics cannot take into account other important characteristics such as the length of the canyon, (a)symmetry of building heights, and whether or not the building rows are interrupted. Air pollution models may benefit from taking a 3dimensional approach in characterizing all shelter from surrounding buildings, assuming that all obstacles to vertical air exchange are indicative of pollution trapping. In this paper we present a novel approach to quantitatively derive different indicators of pollution trapping using 3dimensional building data available in a GIS. Besides the aspect ratio, we derive three other proxies for vertical air exchange by incorporating all building obstruction in a 360-degree circle around each site. One of those is the SkyView Factor (SVF), described previously by Souza and Rodrigues (2003); Souza et al., (2003), and shown to be a good proxy for vertical air exchange (Gál et al., 2009). The SVF was originally developed for estimation of urban heat island effects: the rise of temperatures in urban environments compared to relatively natural surroundings. We tested whether these “canyon indicators” improve the prediction of measured air pollutant concentrations, using land use regression (LUR) modelling. 2. Methods We derived all canyon indicators for a monitoring network of 144 sites, spread over the Netherlands, including large and medium-size Dutch cities (Eeftens et al., 2011). The original network included 26 regional background sites, 78 urban background sites and 40 sites close to major roads. The network included street sites in canyons, as well as wider streets lined by fewer buildings. 2.1. Estimation of canyon indicators 2.1.1. Reconstruction of building heights Detailed data on buildings were available from the TOP10 vector map for the year 2009, produced by the Dutch National Mapping Agency (Kadaster). In total, 2,996,212 building blocks were available with an accuracy of 2 m (http://www.gdmc.nl/oosterom/ sdh98.pdf). No polygons were available for the towns of Heerlen and Sibbe-Ijzeren, therefore we excluded the 4 monitoring sites in these towns from the analysis, leaving 140 sites. Building block polygons had no attribute of height attached, so we estimated building height from a 5 5m height grid available at a national level (Actueel Hoogtebestand Nederland, AHN). Data for this grid were collected between 1996 and 2003. We used the geoprocessing capabilities of Python 2,5 (Python Software Foundation) and ArcGIS 9.3.1 (Esri Redlands, CA, USA) to determine the height of each M. Eeftens et al. / Atmospheric Environment 72 (2013) 1e9 building block based on the height grid. First, we intersected the building block outlines with the height grid and recorded the heights of the grid cells that fell within each building. Taking the average of these heights would underestimate the true building height, as sometimes the building blocks included an enclosed garden of lower height. Taking the maximum height however, could result in overestimation of the building height as small onroof obstacles (e.g. elevator shafts, towers and antennas) are also included in the height grid. We therefore used the 90th percentile as the building height. Next, we calculated the surface height around the building. While differences in altitude are small in the Netherlands (between 7 and 323 m), they become important when determining the height of a building relative to its surroundings. We created a 10 m buffer around each building block polygon, and set the surface height to the 10th percentile of grid cell heights within this buffer. Finally, the height of the building relative to the ground was calculated by subtracting the surface height from the building height. Final building heights were validated using 3Dbuilding data from EUROSENSE (Wemmel, Belgium) available for the city of Amsterdam only. The overall agreement was moderate (R2 ¼ 0.35), see Online Supplement A. For 19 out of 140 sites, the heights of surrounding buildings could not be calculated, because of missing building height information, either due to outdated height data (for 7 sites, buildings were constructed after the creation of the height grid) or due to flattening of the terrain (for 12 sites, buildings in rural environments were filtered in order to represent terrain height). We chose to impute the missing building heights rather than exclude the sites which were among buildings of unknown height, as this would mean selectively excluding many regional sites with little sky obstruction. Typical Dutch family homes have 2 to 3 stories. In rural areas, high-rise buildings over three stories are uncommon. We decided to use a cut-off of 2.0 m below which to set the building height to 2.0 m, because the distribution plot suggested a natural break between the “signal” and “noise” (Online Supplement B). In a sensitivity analysis, we set all missing building heights to 6.0 m (the median height of buildings when excluding building s < 2.0 m), see Online Supplement C. 2.1.2. Positioning of the measurement sites We manually checked if all measurement sites were positioned correctly relative to building polygons and road segments using the digital maps. Most samplers were placed at 30 cm distance from the façade of a building. Eight points were excluded from the analyses, because they were situated in back gardens, behind buildings and were not in direct contact with the pollution source, leaving 132 sites. The height at which a measurement took place (usually 1.5 m above ground) was registered as an attribute (Zi) for each site i. Seven background sites were situated on rooftops. For those sites, the Zi-value was set to the height of the building þ 1 m (the height of the equipment support stand). 2.1.3. Calculation of 360 skyview obstructions for each site We selected subsets of all buildings within 200 m around each on-road site, assuming that buildings further than 200 m away did not obstruct the air flow around that site. From each subset, we further eliminated buildings which were lower than Zi (the height at which the measurement took place), as these would not obstruct the skyview around site i. We then searched for buildings in horizontal direction for each site in 360 steps of 1, registering search angle (a), height of each building (H) and the distance to the building (D). The building angle b was then calculated from the building height and distance, using Equation (1). All results are stored in a “SkyView Table”. An example can be found in Online 3 Supplement D. Fig. 1 illustrates a search for the nearest building for a moderate canyon site (A) and a wider street lined by separated buildings (B). ba;i ¼ tan1 Ha;i =Da;i (1) Because buildings have different heights, the nearest building is not necessarily the one causing the largest skyview obstruction, as illustrated by Fig. 2. If more than one building was found for a specific search angle a, the building with the largest building angle b was selected, so only the height, distance and building angle of the building forming the highest obstruction were included in the SkyView Table. Fig. 3 gives a 3-D impression of the statistics calculated in the SkyView Table for several search angles. 2.1.4. Calculation of the aspect ratio We defined the aspect ratio (AR) as the average height (H) of the buildings on opposite sides of the street, divided by the sum of the distances to the buildings on either side (D) (Equation (2). The AR was calculated for all sites and search angles a between 0 and 179 . The highest AR was then selected for each site. On a street lined on both sides by buildings with uniform height, the maximum AR is found for search angles perpendicular to the street. AR ¼ ðHa þ Haþ180 Þ=2 Da þ Daþ180 (2) 2.1.5. Mean and median building angle The mean and median of the building angles b for the 360 search angles were calculated. 2.1.6. Calculation of the SkyView Factor The SkyView Factor (SVF) is a measure of the fraction of visible sky from the position of an observer on the ground, inside the street canyon. Following (Gál et al., 2009), the SVF was calculated as follows (Equation (3): SVF ¼ 1 359 X a¼0 sin2 ba *ð1=360Þ (3) 2.2. Validation of aspect ratio calculations All sampling locations were characterized on-site following the CAR II classification (Eerens et al., 1993), registering width of the street, height of buildings on both sides of the street, separation of the buildings and street type. We compared the ARs computed in ArcGIS to the ARs calculated when determining street width and building height at the actual measurement sites. Even though building heights and street widths were determined on-site, these were rough approximations: it was not feasible to directly measure the height of a building, so often the number of floors was counted as a proxy. The width of the street was determined by the number of steps it took to cross the road. Differences between the on-site and the GIS determined ARs are therefore caused by errors in both measures. 2.3. Sensitivity of canyon indicators to distance to the façade The indicators are derived to assess the pollution trapping properties of the street and should not change with the site’s position closer to or further away from the building façade. Online Supplement E illustrates that especially for points which are positioned very close (<0.50 m) to the façade, the derived canyon indicators are sensitive to slight positioning differences. This is less of an issue for points which are situated in the middle of the street 4 M. Eeftens et al. / Atmospheric Environment 72 (2013) 1e9 Fig. 1. A&B: Bird’s-eye views of the search angles in GIS, and radar plots of the building angles and SkyView Factor for a low street canyon (A) and a wider street lined with separated buildings of varying height (B). canyon. To investigate the potential impact of the position, we automatically determined the nearest point on a road for each site, using the “Near (analysis)” Tool in ArcGIS. The median distance between the original point and its on-road location was 10.0 m (range 2.4 me62.3 m). Only 7 out of 132 points were further than 25 m from a road. In a sensitivity analysis we calculated the canyon indicators for these on-road points, and compared them to those derived for the original points (Online Supplement E). 2.4. Air pollution measurements Measured air pollution data were available from the TRACHEA (Traffic Related Air pollution & Children’s respiratory HEalth and Allergies) study (Eeftens et al., 2011). Briefly, NO2 and NOx measurements were taken at 144 sites using Ogawa badges, a passive sampler which collects nitrogen oxides through diffusion on a precoated filter (http://www.ogawausa.com). All 144 sites were Fig. 2. Calculation of the largest building angle. In this situation, the nearest building has a building angle of 36.9 . However, a taller building further away has a building angle of 48.0 . For this search angle, the height, distance and building angle of the taller building are selected for the SkyView Table. Fig. 3 gives a 3-D impression of the statistics calculated in the SkyView Table. M. Eeftens et al. / Atmospheric Environment 72 (2013) 1e9 5 Fig. 3. Calculation of the different elements of the SkyView Table. Illustration of the statistics stored in the SkyView Table: the height of the buildings at a search angle of 210 and 270 , the distance to the buildings at search angles of 270 , 300 and 330 , and the building angles calculated from search angles of 90 , 120 and 150 . The highest AR is calculated along the green lines (from search angle a ¼ 90 and opposite angle of 270 ). (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.) measured simultaneously during four periods of a week in different seasons of 2007. As mentioned earlier, a total of 12 sites were excluded (4 sites because there were no building polygons available, 8 because samplers were situated in back gardens), leaving 132 sites for the analyses. 2.5. Predictors for land-use regression models Besides the urban canyon indicators, a total of 44 potential predictor variables were generated for model development. As “background” predictors we collected data on land use, population, home address density and regional variability. Land use variables were obtained from the CORINE 2000 database in buffers of 100, 300, 500, 1000 and 5000 m for the four land use categories residential, industry, ports and urban green/natural land. The population and home address density within 100, 300, 500, 1000 and 5000 m buffers were calculated, using a national 100 100 m grid obtained from the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment. Because of the large geographical size of the study area, the LUR models had to account for regional variation, which could not be captured by any of the GIS variables because of a maximum range of 5000 m. An inverse distance weighted concentration measured at regional background sites was used to represent regional variation. As “local” predictors, we calculated the total traffic load in vehicle m, defined as the length of a road segment * the traffic intensity on that road segment. The traffic load was computed for buffers of 25, 50, 100, 300, 500 and 1000 m. Traffic and road data were obtained from a National Road Database with linked traffic intensities from the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment. From these 7 traffic predictors, the 50 m traffic load buffer was selected for further model development as it showed the highest correlation with total traffic intensity within the adjacent street (R2 ¼ 0.98). We selected the buffer sizes for land-use, population and households to reflect known distances of pollutant dispersion, taking into account the resolution of the available maps. The same buffer sizes and variables were used in the Dutch LUR modelling for the ESCAPE project (Eeftens et al., 2012). An overview of all variables and their distribution can be found in Online Supplement F. 2.6. Land use regression (LUR) models We first developed LUR models without the canyon indicators, based on 132 sites. We then added each canyon indicator separately to these basic LUR models to evaluate the additional predictive value of the four canyon indicators. The basic LUR model was developed in two steps. First, a model for the background was developed for NO2 and NOx using the 37 available background predictors. Each potential predictor was first evaluated individually, and the one giving the highest adjusted R2 was selected. Additional predictors were selected in a stepwise process if they added more than 1% to the adjusted R2 of the previous model. New variables were only included if their direction of effect was specified a priori (e.g. positive for traffic intensity, negative for urban green and natural land use), and if their addition did not change the direction of effect of previously included variables. Second, traffic load in a 50 m buffer was added to the background models as a variable representing the additional pollution caused by traffic in the street in which the sampling site was located. We specifically added this traffic variable to the model as we also characterized the street configuration of this street and the hypothesis was that including street configuration in addition to the traffic load would improve the model. We then added the 4 different canyon variables to the basic background þ traffic models one at a time, and evaluated their significance, contribution to the explained variability and direction of effect. In a sensitivity analysis, we evaluated this for the on-road points also (Online Supplement E). We also evaluated the SkyView Factor in classes, and the aspect ratio as determined in the field. We further explored if there was evidence of interaction effects between traffic load in a 50 m buffer and the significant canyon indicators, because poor dispersion related to canyons may be more important in high traffic streets. We evaluated interactions using the product of the linear terms “traffic intensity in a 50 m buffer” and the product of traffic intensity and SVF classified in quartiles. 2.7. Model validation In addition to assessing the contribution of canyon indicators to the model R2, we also assessed whether they improved validation 6 M. Eeftens et al. / Atmospheric Environment 72 (2013) 1e9 Table 1 Distribution of derived canyon indicators (n ¼ 132). Variable Mean Minimum 10th percentile 25th percentile Median 75th percentile 90th percentile Maximum Aspect ratio Mean building angle ( ) Median building angle ( ) SkyView Factor (SVF) 0.296 18.4 17.7 0.841 0 0 0 0.472 0.0748 1.69 1.06 0.619 0.144 11.5 7.08 0.772 0.253 17.9 16.3 0.871 0.387 25.3 26.9 0.946 0.598 34.7 37.5 0.999 0.933 45.9 56.4 1.00 statistics. All models were primarily validated using leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV), successively leaving out one site and estimating the concentration at this site using models based on the other 131 sites. The correlation (R2) and root mean squared error (RMSE) between the measured and estimated concentrations were recorded for each model. Although this approach is often used in the LUR literature (Hoek et al., 2008), we found that LOOCV R2 gives an overestimation of the accuracy with which we can predict concentration at locations not used in fitting the LUR model (Basagaña et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2012). Using an independent “hold-out” validation set may give a more realistic estimate of the model accuracy (Wang et al., 2012). Therefore, in an additional analysis, we also assessed whether canyon indicator improved hold-out validation statistics. We fitted the models on a randomly selected “training” subset of 66 sites (50% of the total 132 sites), keeping the model structure the same and varying only the coefficients. The random selection was stratified by site type to ensure that regional background, urban background and street sites were equally represented in both training and test dataset. Similar to the original (132-site) models, we cross-validated the 66-site models and recorded the LOOCV R2. We then predicted concentrations for the complementary 66 sites which were not used to fit the model (“test” subset), and calculated the correlation (R2) with the measured concentrations. This process was repeated 10 times for different random selections. We calculated the average and range of the 66-site model R2’s, training subset LOOCV R2’s and the test subset hold-out validation. 3.2. Air pollution measurements Distributions of NO2 and NOx concentrations are shown in Fig. 5 for all 132 sites. Substantial variation was present, partly related to differences between regional background, urban background and street sites. 3.3. Land use regression models 3.3.1. Basic land use regression models The basic LUR model is presented in Table 3. The same three background predictors (regional background estimate, industry in a 5000 m buffer and household density in a 500 m buffer) were selected for NO2 and NOx, in addition to traffic load in a 50 m buffer. These basic models explained 79% of the spatial variation for NO2 and 75% for NOx. 3.3.2. Basic models with canyon indicators Mean building angle and SkyView Factor variables contributed significantly to the NO2 and NOx LUR models. All effects were in the expected direction, adding between 1 and 2% to the explained variance (Table 4). The SVF was evaluated both as a continuous and a class variable (with 4 classes made up of quartiles). SVF quantiles were only significant for NO2. The difference between the 10th and 90th percentile of the mean building angle was equivalent to a difference in concentration of 4.63 mg m3 of NO2 and 8.66 mg m3 3. Results 3.1. Estimation of canyon indicators Estimates of canyon indicators were calculated for all 132 sites, and showed clear contrasts between moderate canyons and wider streets (Table 1; Fig. 1). Busier streets had significantly higher aspect ratios (p ¼ 0.0009), higher mean (p < 0.0001) and median (p ¼ 0.0007) building angles and lower SkyView Factors (p < 0.0001), but the correlations between traffic load and each of these predictors were very low (with R2’s of 0.08, 0.17, 0.08 and 0.18, respectively). The correlations between the different indicators were moderate to high, especially between the mean building angle and SkyView Factor (SVF) (Table 2). Maximum aspect ratios estimated by GIS agreed well with those from on-site observations (R2 ¼ 0.49) (Fig. 4). Table 2 Correlation between the different canyon indicators, R2-values (n ¼ 132). Aspect ratio Mean building angle Median building angle SkyView Factor (SVF) Aspect ratio Mean building angle Median building angle SkyView Factor (SVF) e 0.73 e 0.90 0.73 e 0.68 0.95 0.63 e Fig. 4. Comparison between aspect ratios obtained from field observations and those calculated from GIS (R2 ¼ 0.49, n ¼ 132). If we do not consider the points which were among buildings of imputed height (grey squares), the agreement between the methods improves and R2 increases to 0.53. M. Eeftens et al. / Atmospheric Environment 72 (2013) 1e9 7 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 TOTAL RB UB ST Fig. 5. Adjusted mean NO2 and NOx concentrations for the 132 sites, stratified for 25 regional background (RB), 68 urban background (UB) and 39 street sites (ST). Median, and inter quartile ranges are shown in the box, whiskers indicate 10th and 90th percentiles and individual outliers are shown as points. of NOx. The difference between the 10th and 90th percentile of the SkyView Factor was equivalent to a decrease of 5.56 mg m3 of NO2 and a decrease of 10.9 mg m3 of NOx. The maximum aspect ratio and median building angle did not improve the LUR models, and neither did the aspect ratio as derived from field observations (Table 4). In a sensitivity analysis, canyon indicators derived for the onroad points were highly correlated to those derived for the original points (Online Supplement E). Improvement of model performance was also virtually the same for the original and on-road points (Online Supplement E). Interactions between traffic and canyon indicators were evaluated for those canyon indicators for which the main effects were significant (mean building angle, SVF and SVF class for NO2). Model and cross-validation R2 did not improve and the interaction terms were not significant (Online Supplement G). We also performed hold-out validation to test the hypothesis that a model identified with canyon indicators reflects physical reality better and therefore can be transferred better to sites not used in model development. The average hold-out validation R2 for NO2 was higher for LUR models with a continuous SkyView factor (R2 ¼ 0.79) than for the basic model (R2 ¼ 0.78) (Online Supplement H). For the other canyon indicators hold-out validation was not better than for the basic model. 4. Discussion We demonstrated a novel approach to estimate the extent of pollution trapping by urban street canyons in a quantitative way, using 3-dimensional building data. Digital building data are becoming more widely available in GIS environments, creating possibilities for those who develop air pollution models to consider the aspect of pollution trapping. Aspect ratios derived from our GIS calculations were comparable to those from in-field observations. Our approach does not require manual classification of roads by time-consuming site visits, and can therefore also be applied to extract canyon indicators for large numbers of non-monitoring locations (e.g. cohort subjects). This method may be used in epidemiological research to better characterize individual exposure to air pollutants. Furthermore, the presented canyon indicators may also be applied in dispersion modelling. In contrast to the -commonly used- aspect ratio, which is calculated only from buildings on opposite sides of the street, our canyon indicators mean/median building angle and SkyView Factor consider the obstruction by all surrounding buildings. While our basic LUR models explained a large amount of spatial contrast without including canyon indicators, we found that the inclusion of the SkyView Factor or the mean building angle added significantly to the models. Effects are consistent and in the expected direction. We Table 3 Model description of NO2 and NOx models. NO2 Adj R2 ¼ 0.79 RMSE ¼ 4.55 R2 ¼ 0.80 LOOCV Adj R2 ¼ 0.77 LOOCV RMSE ¼ 4.80 LOOCV R2 ¼ 0.77 Variable Coefficient Standard error Coefficienta (90the10th percentile) Intercept Regional background NO2 Industry 5000 m Household density 500 m Traffic load 50 m 0.636 0.903 0.000000808 0.00150 0.00000572 1.87 0.0987 0.000000171 0.000294 0.000000512 e 9.93 5.78 5.47 9.20 NOX Adj R2 ¼ 0.75 RMSE ¼ 10.5 R2 ¼ 0.76 LOOCV Adj R2 ¼ 0.72 LOOCV RMSE ¼ 11.1 LOOCV R2 ¼ 0.73 Variable Coefficient Standard error Coefficienta (90the10th percentile) Intercept Regional background NOX Industry 5000 m Household density 500 m Traffic load 50 m 4.02 0.949 0.00000161 0.00285 0.0000136 4.14 0.161 0.000000398 0.000679 0.00000118 e 14.2 11.5 10.4 21.9 a Coefficients and standard errors were multiplied by the difference of the 10th and 90th percentile of the predictors. 8 M. Eeftens et al. / Atmospheric Environment 72 (2013) 1e9 Table 4 LUR model performance with and without canyon indicators. Coefficient (standard error) NO2 No canyon indicators Aspect ratio Mean building angle Median building angle SVF SVF classc Aspect ratio from field observations NOx No canyon indicators Aspect ratio Mean building angle Median building angle SVF SVF classc Aspect ratio from field observations a b c Model LOOCV a R2 Adj R2 R2 Adj R2 e 1.82 (1.29) 4.63 (1.47) b 1.13 (1.33) 5.56 (1.45) b Q2: 2.12 (1.29) Q3: 2.74 (1.36)b Q4: 3.25 (1.47)b 1.46 (1.19) 0.80 0.80 0.82 0.80 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.79 0.81 0.80 0.77 0.77 0.79 0.77 0.79 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.77 0.79 0.77 0.80 0.79 0.76 0.76 e 1.85 (3.01) 8.66 (3.46) b 0.930 (3.10) 10.9 (3.41) b Q2: 3.92 (3.00) Q3: 5.17 (3.18) Q4: 5.99 (3.42) 1.46 (2.83) 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.76 0.78 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.75 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.73 0.72 0.74 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.72 0.74 0.72 0.76 0.75 0.70 0.70 Coefficients and standard errors were multiplied by the difference of the 10th and 90th percentile of the predictors. Canyon indicator significant (p < 0.05). Class 1 (lowest SkyView Factor) is the reference class. did not find an improvement of the LUR model using the aspect ratio used in previous studies, suggesting that it is worthwhile to also derive indicators such as mean building angle and SkyView Factor. SVF has been used to represent urban heat island effects and may better reflect the impact of multiple buildings (Souza and Rodrigues, 2003). The lack of model improvement using aspect ratio is in contrast to a study in Vancouver, which found improvements of R2 of LUR models from 72 to 85% for NO and from 56 to 67% for NO2 by including aspect ratios derived from satellite data (Su et al., 2008). This difference could be due to the presence of more and deeper canyons in the Vancouver study. In our study, all aspect ratios were below 1 (Table 1), indicating low to moderate canyons only. Buildings in many Dutch city centres date from the 17th century and have 4 or 5 stories at most. Consequently, the layout of streets has remained largely unchanged for centuries. In more recently built residential neighbourhoods, most homes have 2 or 3 stories. High-rise apartments and office buildings were mainly built in the 20th and 21st century and are usually not built close to each other. Better assessment of the aspect ratio is an unlikely explanation, as the Vancouver paper reports a correlation (R) of 0.41 for aspect ratios derived from satellites and field observations, compared to an R2 of 0.49 in our study. The higher R2 of our basic models may also have contributed to a lower opportunity for increase in R2. Finally, our study area was larger than the Vancouver urban area as smaller towns were also included. Brauer et al. (2003) reported increases in R2 of 4% and 6% by adding canyon indicators derived from direct field observations to basic LUR models for PM2.5 absorbance (a marker for soot) for Munich and Stockholm, but no improvement in the Netherlands. The basic LUR models for PM2.5 were improved by 7% for Munich and 13% for Stockholm (Brauer et al., 2003). Munich and Stockholm also included significantly deeper (AR 1.5) canyons than discussed in this paper and both Stockholm and Munich included more of them (21% of sites in Stockholm and 20% in Munich) than the Dutch study area (only 5% of sites). Despite the small increase in model R2, the difference of 5.56 mg m3 in NO2 and 10.9 mg m3 in NOx between moderate canyons and open streets was substantial and comparable to the predictor variables industry and household density in the basic model (Table 3). The presence of other sources of variation (e.g. urban-rural, regional variation) in this national dataset may have contributed to the small increase in R2. The estimates were comparable to predictions of the widely used CAR-II dispersion model for the traffic related contribution to air pollution in the Netherlands (Eerens et al., 1993). A recent monitoring study in the Netherlands found differences of more than 10 mg m3 in annual average NO2 concentration between two canyon type streets and more open streets with similar traffic intensity (Boogaard et al., 2011). Several factors may explain the small improvement in model R2. Other variables like household density (which is generally higher in built-up areas) may have accounted for some of the canyon effect in the basic model. The need to estimate building heights in our study may have decreased the predictive value of our indicators. In cities with detailed building height data, indicators may results in more improvement. Furthermore, there were limitations in the building heights available for regional areas, resulting in a large number of buildings for which the height was imputed. Since most of our monitoring sites were in urban areas (where contrast in pollution is highest), this only affected 19 out of 132 sites, and there were small differences in the results depending on whether the missing building heights were imputed at 2 m, or at 6 m (Online Supplement C). Thus, the model improvement in terms of explained variance by including canyon indicators differs per study area. As canyon indicators may be time-consuming to obtain, the potential merit of adding them should be carefully assessed. Studies which are conducted in a small area (e.g. single city) including streets with a large variation in street configurations, deep canyons, may benefit most from including canyon indicators. We did not consider the effects of other obstacles than buildings on vertical air exchange. It has been suggested in literature that trees can either trap pollution or increase turbulence, enhance deposition and even absorb some pollutants (Baldauf et al., 2008, 2009) and that noise barriers and parked vehicles could trap pollution on the roadway, while acting as a shield and reducing pollution levels on the footpath (Baldauf et al., 2008; Gallagher et al., 2011). M. Eeftens et al. / Atmospheric Environment 72 (2013) 1e9 Most case studies of street canyons so far have focused on “ideal” canyon settings of deep canyons, sided by uninterrupted lines of equally high buildings on both sides, without side streets (Vardoulakis et al., 2007). Many of these studies of street canyons have considered prevailing wind direction, atmospheric stability, orientation of the street and the placement of the monitor on the windward versus the leeward side. While these issues could affect pollution concentrations inside the canyon on the short term, we expect that on average, on the long term, more pollutants will accumulate at sites with low vertical air exchange. Wind direction and speed in the Netherlands is highly variable, as observed during the measurement periods for this study (Online Supplement I). In this paper, we evaluate the effect of urban morphology on longterm average air pollution, and therefore have not considered these factors in the current study design. Our study also deals with real-life settings which are more difficult to model, particularly in combination with site-specific factors such as traffic induced turbulence, on which no data are available. We have shown that on the long term there are higher levels of air pollution in streets where buildings obstruct vertical air exchange, implying that pollution generated by on-road traffic is indeed trapped by surrounding buildings. 5. Conclusion We demonstrated a GIS-based method to derive quantitative indicators for pollution trapping by buildings. Digital building data are increasingly available, and could be used to incorporate pollution trapping by buildings in both dispersion and land use regression air pollution models. In addition to the classical aspect ratio, our approach also derives three indicators which consider all surrounding buildings: the mean and median building angle and the SkyView Factor. The mean building angle and SkyView Factor accounted for substantial concentration differences in NO2 and NOx in a LUR model including moderate canyons in the Netherlands. 6. Competing interest The authors declare they have no competing financial interest. Appendix A. Supplementary data Supplementary data related to this article can be found at http:// dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.02.007. References Baldauf, R., Watkins, N., Heist, D., Bailey, C., Rowley, P., Shores, R., 2009. 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