Economic Bulletin - Italchamber | Suomalais

Transcription

Economic
Bulletin
2015 Q2
Quarterly Economic Publication
The Economic Bulletin 2015 is published by Italchamber- Finland within
the activities of the Editorial Board of Italchamber Finland.
Pierre Collura
Head of the Editorial Board
SUOMALAIS-ITALIALAINEN KAUPPAKAMARIYHDISTYS RY
ITALCHAMBER – FINLAND
Copyright © 2015
By Italchamber Finland
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means,
electronic, mechanical, photocopying, or otherwise without the prior
consent of Italchamber Finland.
The Economic Bulletin is available at:
www.italchamber.fi
© ITALCHAMBER Finland
2
Table of Contents
Economic Snapshot: Finland ...........................................................................................................................4
Gross Domestic Product ...........................................................................................................................5
Inflation Rate .................................................................................................................................................6
Unemployment Rate....................................................................................................................................7
Balance of Trade...........................................................................................................................................8
Economic Snapshot: Italy ................................................................................................................................9
Gross Domestic Product ........................................................................................................................ 10
Inflation Rate .............................................................................................................................................. 11
Unemployment Rate................................................................................................................................. 12
Balance of Trade........................................................................................................................................ 13
Introduction to Crowdfunding ................................................................................................................... 14
2014: a record year for Finnish venture capital investments ............................................................... 17
Bankitalia: “The access to funds has increased, however more needs to be done for SMEs” ..... 19
Helsinki Messukeskus: Event Calendar ..................................................................................................... 21
Fiera Milano: Event Calendar ...................................................................................................................... 22
3
Economic Snapshot:
Finland
4
Gross Domestic Product
According to Statistics Finland's preliminary data, the volume of Finland’s gross domestic
product decreased from October to December by 0.2 per cent from the previous quarter.
Compared with the fourth quarter of 2013, GDP adjusted for working days also contracted by
0.2 per cent.
In the whole of 2014, gross domestic product decreased by 0.1 per cent.
Revisions put the change in the volume of GDP in the third quarter of 2014 at 0.1 per cent
from the previous quarter (was 0.2%) and at 0.0 per cent from twelve months back (was 0.1%).
In the fourth quarter, the volume of exports contracted by one per cent from the previous
quarter but grew by 0.4 per cent from twelve months back.
Imports decreased by 0.8 per cent from the previous quarter and by one per cent year-on-year.
In the fourth quarter, the volume of private consumption diminished by 0.5 per cent from the
previous quarter and by 0.3 per cent from twelve months back.
Gross fixed capital formation diminished by 2.6 per cent from the previous quarter and by 5.7
per cent year-on-year.
SOURCE: http://tilastokeskus.fi/til/ntp/2014/04/ntp_2014_04_2015-03-02_tie_001_en.html
5
Inflation Rate
The year-on-year change in consumer prices calculated by Statistics Finland was -0.1 per cent in
February. In January, inflation stood at -0.2 per cent. Inflation remained negative particularly as a
result of lower prices of liquid fuels, owner-occupied dwellings, dairy products, cheese and eggs
compared to February 2014.
In February, consumer prices were pushed up most by increases in rents, retail prices of
tobacco products, and price increases in maintenance services of blocks of flats. The rising of
consumer prices was curbed in February most by reductions in the prices of liquid fuels,
owner-occupied housing and dairy products from the year before. From January to February,
consumer prices rose by 0.3 per cent, which was primarily caused by higher prices of air
transport, package tours and liquid fuels. From January to February, consumer prices decreased
mainly due to cheaper bread, meat and dairy products.
SOURCE: http://tilastokeskus.fi/til/khi/2015/02/khi_2015_02_2015-03-13_tie_001_en.html
6
Unemployment Rate
According to Statistics Finland’s Labour Force Survey, the number of unemployed persons in
February 2015 was 268,000, which was 27,000 higher than one year ago. The unemployment
rate was 10.1 per cent, having been 9.1 per cent in February of the year before. There were
13,000 fewer employed persons than in February of the previous year. The number of persons
in the inactive population was 5,000 fewer than one year earlier.
In February 2015, the number of employed persons was 2,392,000, which was 13,000 lower
than a year earlier (margin of error ±32,000). The number of employed persons decreased in
the private sector and grew in the public sector compared to February 2014.
In February 2015, the employment rate, that is, the proportion of the employed among persons
aged 15 to 64, stood at 66.6 per cent, having been 66.9 per cent one year earlier. The
employment rate for men fell by 0.6 percentage point from last year’s February to 66.7 per
cent. Women’s employment rate was almost unchanged from February 2014 and stood at 66.6
per cent. Adjusted for seasonal and random variation, the trend of the employment rate was
68.2 per cent.
SOURCE: http://tilastokeskus.fi/til/tyti/2015//02/tyti_2015_02_2015-03-24_tie_001_en.html
7
Balance of Trade
According to the preliminary statistics of foreign trade of goods provided by Finnish Customs,
the value of Finnish exports decreased by 11 per cent and the value of imports decreased by 14
per cent in January compared with the year before. The value of Finnish exports in January was
3.9 billion Euros and the value of imports was under 4.2 billion Euros. The trade balance
showed a deficit of 285 million Euros in January. In 2014 the trade balance for January showed a
deficit of 525 million Euros.
Exports to EU member states decreased by 11 per cent in January while exports to non-EU
countries decreased by ten per cent. Imports from EU-countries decreased by 11 per cent
while imports from non-EU countries decreased by 19 per cent.
SOURCE:
http://www.tulli.fi/en/releases/ulkomaankauppatilastot/tilastot/ennakko/201501/index.html?bc=5
555
8
Economic Snapshot:
Italy
9
Gross Domestic Product
410000
405000
400000
395000
390000
385000
GDP
380000
375000
370000
In the fourth quarter of 2014 the seasonally and calendar adjusted, chained volume measure of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged with respect to the third quarter of 2014
and decreased by 0.5 per cent in comparison with the fourth quarter of 2013.
Compared to the third quarter of 2014, final consumption expenditure increased by 0.2 per
cent, gross fixed capital formation by 0.2 per cent; imports by 0.3 per cent and exports by 1.6
per cent.
With respect to the fourth quarter of 2013, final consumption expenditure decreased by 0.3
per cent, gross fixed capital formation by -3.0 per cent and imports by 2.0 per cent, while
exports increased by 3.8 per cent.
SOURCE: http://www.istat.it/en/archive/151840
10
Inflation Rate
121
120
119
118
117
116
115
Inlation
114
113
112
111
In February 2015, the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) rose by 0.4%
compared with the previous month and declined by 0.1% (flash estimate was equal to -0.2%)
with respect to February 2014 (the annual rate was -0.6% in January 2015).
The lower decline on annual basis of the All items index was mainly due to the marked
recovery of Fresh Vegetables prices (+10.8%, up from -1.7% in January 2015); other
contributions derived from the speed-up of the annual growth of prices of Services related to
transport (+1.4%, from +0.3% in the previous month), from the reversal of trend of Tobacco
prices (+3.7%, from -0.4% in January 2015) and from the partial reduction of the annual
decrease of prices of Non-regulated energy products (-12.8%, from -14.0% in the previous
month).
Excluding energy and unprocessed food, core inflation was 0.6% (up from +0.3% in the previous
month); excluding energy, the inflation was 0.7% (0.4 higher than in January 2015).
11
Unemployment Rate
13.4
13.2
13
12.8
12.6
rate
12.4
12.2
12
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
01
2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Istat estimates that 22,4 million persons were employed in the 4th quarter 2014, rising up 0.7%
(+156 thousands) from 4th quarter 2013. The employment rate increased to 56% (+0.3
percentage points). Unemployment rise to 3.4 million (+208 thousands persons), while the
unemployment rate increase to 13.3%. The inactivity rate decreased to 35.3%.
In January 2015 22.320 million persons were employed, essentially unchanged over December
2014. Unemployed were 3.221 million, -0.6% with respect to the previous month.
SOURCE:
http://www.istat.it/en/archive/151164
http://www.istat.it/en/archive/151151
12
Balance of Trade
40000
38000
36000
34000
32000
30000
import - value (millions of euro)
28000
export - value (millions of euro)
26000
24000
22000
Mar-2012
May-2012
Jul-2012
Sep-2012
Nov-2012
Jan-2013
Mar-2013
May-2013
Jul-2013
Sep-2013
Nov-2013
Jan-2014
Mar-2014
May-2014
Jul-2014
Sep-2014
Nov-2014
Jan-2015
20000
In January 2015 seasonally-adjusted data, compared to December 2014, decreased by 2.5% for
outgoing flows and increased by 1.0% for incoming flows. Exports decreased for both areas: 2.6% for EU countries and -2.4% for non EU countries. The increase of imports is the result of
an increase for EU countries (+2.0%) and a drop for non EU countries (-0.4%). Over the last
three months, seasonally-adjusted data, in comparison with the previous three months, showed
a growth of 0.5% for exports and a fall of 1.2% for imports.
In January 2015, compared with the same month of the previous year, trade decreased by 4.2%
for both flows: exports and imports. Outgoing flows decreased by 4.7 for EU countries and 3.5
for non EU countries. Incoming flows fell by 0.5 for EU area and 8.5 for non EU area. The trade
balance in January amounted to +219 million Euros (+452 million Euros for EU area and -233
million Euros for non EU countries).
13
Introduction to Crowdfunding
A powerful alternative financing solution for SMEs and creative projects
OUR ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EVOLVING. Some people talk about recovery while
others continue with their lament of despair. In this environment, one of the greatest difficulties
for organizations – notably SMEs – is the access to funds. Regardless of the challenges, some
extremely interesting solutions have surfaced, and crowdfunding is among the most successful
ones.
A definition for crowdfunding
Crowdfunding has been defined as the practice of funding a project or venture by raising many
small amounts of money from a large number of people, typically via the Internet. The goal of
this practice is to create a source of funds for entrepreneurs and small businesses lacking access
to traditional financing solutions offered by banking institutions and related organizations. Due
to the success produced by this solution, crowdfunding has become an extremely effective
option for all types of companies.
14
The concepts on which crowdfunding is based on have been around for quite a while; already
during the renaissance artists used similar methods to obtain financing for their projects. In our
information age, we have combined the powerful features of digital technologies with these
time-tested concepts to create an extremely effective solution that can deliver valuable benefits
to all stakeholders.
Crowdsourcing solutions can be classified in four categories: donation, reward, equity and debt.
Donation-based is a category of crowdfunding in which money is asked for a project in a purely
philanthropist spirit. Reward-based crowdfunding includes an actual reward in return for the
money that is given to the project; the reward can range from a mention of the contributor to
some exclusive merchandise/service. Debt-based and equity-based crowdfunding have similar
structures to the traditional debt and equity financial instruments.
The evolution of the industry
The industry has grown exponentially over the years, and the numbers show that. According to
Neste’s report, over the past years in the United Kingdom alone this new financial industry has
more than doubled; by the end of 2014 it stood at GBP 1,75 bn (EUR 2,41 bn).
There are various crowdfunding platforms investors and seekers of funds can opt for based on
the type of crowdfunding solutions they prefer. For example Kickstarter is known for creative
ideas and projects that result in a finished product, while Indiegogo has a more general target.
Both organizations have been extremely successful. As an example through Kickstarter, after
the launch on April 28, 2009, over USD 1,6 billion has been pledged by more than 8,2 million
people, funding more than 80,000 creative projects.
Also both Finland and Italy have been active in this industry. In Finland we find established
equity-based crowdfunding platforms like Investdor and FoundedbyMe, and the new player on
the block called Innovestor. On the other hand, in Italy there are platforms that have been
online since 2009 - 2012 like Kapipal, Eppela and Starteed.
The challenges
Although the future of this industry seems bright there are several challenges ahead. The
projects that raise funds through these platforms do not always deliver on their promises.
Among these cases we find products such as the high-tech glasses ZionEyez on Kickstarter, or
the waterproof, voice activated smartwatch Kreyos Meteor on Indiegogo. These events
brought to the public’s attention issues such as the imperative need for transparency and
understanding of the crowdfunding process.
Some organizations perform an in depth screening and due diligence process before allowing a
project to be posted on the platform, while others adopt a less rigorous approach.
Transparency is essential in order to build a trust relationship between all the parties involved
in a transaction: the seekers of funds, the crowdfunding platform and the backers of the
projects. All parties must be informed on the benefits and risks associated with the involvement
in these projects.
15
On the other hand crowdfunding – as we have discussed before – can take different forms. For
example through Kickstarter backers are “betting” for the success of an idea that can
potentially turn into a product. With this model backers face the risk that some ideas, that
seem extremely interesting in the inception phase, may face insurmountable challenges and
might never be developed. On the contrary, platforms like Investdor or Innovestor provide
equity investments; therefore adopt a more structured due diligence and information disclosure
approach.
There is no right answer. Whatever solution backers may opt for, it is imperative that they
understand the type of investment being offered.
A bright future
Crowdfunding can be extremely powerful. In fact, all the parties involved in this industry are
working hard towards the creation of a sustainable ecosystem. Governments, institutions and
people need information and knowledge regarding the opportunities and risks involved due to
the fact that the success of this industry depends on transparency, trust and accountability.
Crowdfunding can be a solution for overcoming the financial challenges that have affected both
the Italian and the Finnish economy over the past several years.
16
2014: a record year for Finnish venture capital
investments
Finland is known internationally for having one of the best ecosystems for startups. A
fundamental component to the sustainability of this environment is the accessibility of seed and
growth funds from private and institutional investors. In regards of this aspect Finland has
produced an outstanding performance in 2014.
The total amount invested in Finnish early stage companies in 2014 was 206 million Euros. The
statistics include Finnish venture capital investments (73 M€), direct foreign investments (89
M€), business angel investments (33 M€) and other sources of financing including crowdfunding
(11 M€). The all-time investment record of 279 M€ in 2013 was partly due to Supercell’s
100M€ funding round.
17
Finnish business angels invested a record amount - 21 M€ (11M€ 2013) - in 238 individual
potential high-growth companies (164 companies 2013). In addition to the FiBAN statistics, 12
M€ was invested by business angels together with the Finnish public investment institute.
The sector-based investments are the following: CleanTech 14%, Mobile 21% (of which
investments in mobile games 17%), and HealthTech that decreased to 5%.
The aforementioned investments not only provided support to the growing number of highgrowth companies but also created a large number of employment opportunities - during year
2014 over 1.200 new jobs were created.
A shortage of investments by companies has been the Achilles tendon that impeded the fast
growth of the Finnish national economy. However, the attitude and interest displayed by angel
investors and venture capitalists seems to be against the general trend.
Venture capitalists in Finland have a unique characteristic. According to Marika af Enehjelm, the
managing director at FVCA (Finnish Venture Capitalists Association): “Venture Capitalists are
owners who can afford to put money in growth”.
The growth of the angel investing and venture capital industry could be fueled by the increase
of general obstacles and challenges that companies need to overcome in order to secure
financing from a traditional source – such as traditional credit institutions. According to Jaakko
Salminen, the chairman at Fiban (Finnish Business Angels Network), the tendency of companies
to turn to investors is partly due to higher barriers of access to credit, caused by changes in
creditworthiness policies in the banking industry.
The peculiar characteristic of business angel investors and venture capitalist firms is their risk
appetite. Compared to traditional credit institutions investors generally have a much higher
tolerance towards the risks involved with any investment. In addition, business angels and
venture capitalists look at investments from a long-term perspective – some investors are
prepared to exit their positions after 5 to 10 years.
The overall increase in investments towards startups and growth companies can be attributed
to the stimulating startup ecosystem and entrepreneurial culture. The odds for the future seem
positive. Let us hope that this ecosystem continues to grow and prosper.
18
Bankitalia: “The access to funds has increased,
however more needs to be done for SMEs”
WE ARE WITNESSING A SMALL RECOVERY. The financial industry, notably credit
institutions, needs to contribute to the recovery of the Italian economy. These words
summarize the message of the Vice-president of Bankitalia, Fabio Panetta, to all Italian credit
institutions. In a conference in Perugia he has emphasized that the recovery will depend upon a
“healthy performance of the credit market and the availability of an adequate volume of
financing towards the real economy”. In this landscape, the issue of access to credit for SMEs
still persists.
The normalization of the credit market is still incomplete
In short, according to the Deputy Director of Via Nazionale, there was a positive
"improvement in the availability of loans," however "the normalization of the credit market is
not complete," with "the increase of flows for large businesses with a substantial market
capitalization," while "smaller sized companies, notably those affected by fragility of the
19
economic and balance sheet, continue to display difficulties in accessing external funding”. “The
increase in credit flows was recorded in regards the less risky borrowers, such as large
businesses. However smaller companies are not included in this positive increase”.
Banking system crucial for the growth of the production system
In the report of Bankitalia Transition to a more stable financial system, shown at the conference on
Strategy for the Italian banking industry, organized by the Association for the Development of
Banking and Stock Exchange Studies in collaboration with the Università Cattolica del Sacro
Cuore in Milan, Panetta insisted that the role of banks in this particular economic situation
should revolve around the financial support to the real economy. The financial system "cannot
solve problems of real nature, such as low competitiveness and insufficient productivity levels."
But it has an indirect role "facilitating the processes of transformation and growth of the
production system."
The role of monetary policy and the EU
The most recent data - Panetta explains - show an improvement in the availability of loans.
Financial intermediaries signal a loosening in the creditworthiness criteria. The share of
companies that complain about lack of funding is shrinking and the contraction of loans towards
businesses is slackening. A major contribution to such improvements was played by a decisive
intervention in regards to the monetary policy, in particular the quantitative easing program
which provides massive purchases of government bonds and other assets.
20
Helsinki Messukeskus: Event Calendar
APRIL
Name
Schedule
American Car Show 2015
3/6 APR 2015
Digital Wellness Services for Young Elderly
8/8 APR 2014
Kädentaito 2015 kevät
10/12 APR 2015
Lapsimessut 2015
10/12 APR 2016
Model Expo 2015
10/12 APR 2017
OutletExpo 2015 kevät
10/12 APR 2018
GSW pro kevät 2015
11/12 APR 2015
PetExpo 2015
11/12 APR 2016
Taloyhtiö 2015
15/15 APR 2015
Diabeteshoitajien valtakunnalliset koulutuspäivät
16/17 APR 2015
Prosessipäivät
22/23 APR 2015
MAY
Name
Schedule
Riskit palveluketjuissa, aamiaisseminaari
06/06 MAY 2015
Stop+Go Vaasa
06/07 MAY 2015
NBC 2015 SYMPOSIUM
18/21 MAY 2015
Tietämyksenhallinta
21/21 MAY 2015
Helsinki Chemicals Forum 2015
28/29 MAY 2015
JUNE
Name
Schedule
Automaatio & ICT
Taksinäyttely 2015
Logistiikka - Kuljetus 2015
Tulevaisuuden atl-päivä
03/03 JUN 2015
09/10 JUN 2015
11/13 JUN 2015
16/16 JUN 2015
21
Fiera Milano: Event Calendar
APRIL
Name
Schedule
SOLAREXPO - THE INNOVATION CLOUD
MIART
EUROLUCE
SALONEUFFICIO
SALONE INTERNAZIONALE DEL MOBILE
SALONE INTERNAZIONALE DEL COMPLEMENTO D'ARREDO
08/10 APR 2015
10/12 APR 2015
14/19 APR 2015
14/19 APR 2015
14/19 APR 2015
14/19 APR 2015
MAY
Name
Schedule
VENDITALIA
TUTTOFOOD
PLAST
FARMACISTAPIU'
CONVERFLEX
DAIRYTECH
IPACK-IMA
INTRALOGISTICA ITALIA
MEAT TECH
FRUIT INNOVATION FROM HARVEST TO CONSUMER
MADE IN STEEL
SI' SPOSAITALIA COLLEZIONI
CHIBIMART
03/06 MAY 2015
03/06 MAY 2015
05/09 MAY 2015
08/10 MAY 2015
19/23 MAY 2015
19/23 MAY 2015
19/23 MAY 2015
19/23 MAY 2015
19/23 MAY 2015
20/22 MAY 2015
20/22 MAY 2015
22/25 MAY 2015
22/25 MAY 2015
JUNE
Name
Schedule
EXPO TRAINING
ESPOSIZIONE MONDIALE CANINA
03/05 JUN 2015
10/14 JUN 2015
22
SUOMALAIS-ITALIALAINEN
KAUPPAKAMARIYHDISTYS RY
ITALCHAMBER – FINLAND
DARIO ALESSI
President
[email protected]
+358 40 5783647
ANNALISA FLORE
Secretary General
[email protected]
+358 40 4810855
Temppelikatu 4A
00100 Helsinki
Finland
Business ID: 1525267-3
VAT No: FI15252673
VITO RAVO
Public Relations
[email protected]
+358 40 7725737
Reg. No: 84.240
PIERRE COLLURA
Head of the Editorial Board
[email protected]
Fax. +358 9 494 113
PETTERI VILJAKAINEN
VicePresident
[email protected]
email: [email protected]
Tel. +358 9 4281 7000
Mobile +358 40 4810855
www.italchamber.fi
MARKUS HAKALA
VicePresident
[email protected]
23

Economic Bulletin - Italchamber | Suomalais

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