THE WEEK AHEAD - CIBC World Markets

Transcription

The Week Ahead
June 15-19, 2015
The Fed Should Not Listen to the IMF
by Benjamin Tal
Ditto for the Fed’s hiking moves during these
cycles. In early 1994 the Fed started hiking
in an environment of decelerating core
inflation (left Chart). In 1999 the Fed again
elected to start tightening despite the fact
that core inflation was basically trendless
(middle Chart).
http://research.
cibcwm.com/res/Eco/
EcoResearch.html
The 1999 Experience
5.0
4.0
4.0
Fed Funds Target Rate
PCE Core: Y/Y
Jan-06
0.0
May-99
1.0
0.0
Feb-99
1.0
Aug-98
2.0
Nov-98
Oct-94
May-94
Jul-93
Dec-93
PCE Core: Y/Y
2.0
Jul-05
3.0
3.0
%
5.0
Jan-05
6.0
The 2004 Experience
6.0
%
Jul-04
7.0
%
Feb-93
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jan-04
The 1994 Experience
Sep-92
“When you chase
a lagging indicator
you overshoot.”
The Fed wants to move very slowly during
the upcoming tightening cycle. In order to
do that, Yellen will have to fire the first bullet
prior to any notable acceleration in inflation.
Jul-03
Nick Exarhos
(416) 956-6527
[email protected]
Jan-03
Royce Mendes
(416) 594-7354
[email protected]
In mid-1989, the Fed started cutting rates
while still facing a relatively high rate of
inflation. Between mid-1989 and early
1991, the Fed eased policy by no less than
200 basis points. During that period, core
inflation accelerated by 0.7 percentage
points. Similarly in late 2000, the Fed
initiated an easing cycle despite the fact
that inflation was not showing any signs of
softening.
May-00
Andrew Grantham
(416) 956-3219
[email protected]
No doubt that when Chair Yellen says that
she will not repeat past mistakes, she does
not refer to the above episodes but rather
to the 2004 experience (right Chart). In
retrospect, one could claim that Greenspan
waited way too long before he started hiking
in June 2004. Note that back then inflation
was already on a clear accelerating path with
core PCE rising from 1.3% in September
2003 to 2% in June 2004. That is, the Fed
waited for core inflation to reach its target
before moving. By then it was clearly too
late. When you chase a lagging indicator
you overshoot.
Feb-00
Benjamin Tal
(416) 956-3698
[email protected]
Aug-99
Avery Shenfeld
(416) 594-7356
[email protected]
What triggered these courageous monetary
acts was the understanding that inflation is
essentially a lagging indicator. A robotic Fed
would have kept rates unchanged until core
inflation was clearly on the move. But past
experience suggests that the Fed possesses
the wisdom to deliver a rate change before
the price adjustment process is completed.
The IMF wants the Fed to wait until inflation
is closer to its target. If things were so easy,
then you might as well replace the FOMC
with a computer program. Luckily, despite
many monetary policy slips over the decades,
the Fed deserves some credit for realizing
that, as opposed to media headlines, its
job description really entails focusing on
medium-term inflation risks and not on the
CPI du jour.
Nov-99
Economics
PCE Core: Y/Y
CIBC World Markets Inc. • PO Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 • Bloomberg @ CIBC • (416) 594-7000
C I B C W o r l d M a r k e t s C o r p • 3 0 0 M a d i s o n A v e n u e , N e w Yo r k , N Y 1 0 0 1 7 • ( 2 1 2 ) 8 5 6 - 4 0 0 0 , ( 8 0 0 ) 9 9 9 - 6 7 2 6
Friday
June 19
Thursday
June 18
Wednesday
June 17
Tuesday
June 16
Monday
June 15
`
(May) (L)
9:00 AM
EXISTING HOME SALES
-1.2%
CIBC
(Apr)
(Apr)
(May)
(May)
(May)
(May)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(Apr) (M)
(Apr) (M)
1.1%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.8%
2.2%
0.5%
H, M, L = High, Medium or Low Significance
8:30 AM
RETAIL TRADE TOTAL M/M
RETAIL TRADE EX-AUTO M/M
CPI M/M
CPI M/M (Bank of Canada core)
CPI Y/Y
CPI Y/Y (Bank of Canada core)
8:30 AM
WHOLESALE TRADE M/M
8:30 AM
INT'L. SEC. TRANSACTIONS
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $5.0B, 6-M BILLS $2.0B, 1-YR BILLS $2.0B
CASH MANAGEMENT BUYBACK (Feb'16 - Sep'16) - $1.0B
(Apr) (M)
8:30 AM
MANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS M/M
CANADA
0.5%
0.2%
0.5%
0.3%
0.8%
2.1%
0.3%
-0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
-0.1%
0.1%
0.8%
2.3%
0.8%
$22.5B
0.0%
2.9%
Prior
(Jun)
(Apr)
10:00 AM
NAHB HOUSING INDEX
4:00 PM
NET CAPITAL INFLOWS (TICS)
10:00 AM
LEADING INDICATORS M/M
PHILADELPHIA FED
8:30 AM
CONTINUING CLAIMS
INITIAL CLAIMS
CURRENT ACCOUNT
CPI M/M
CPI M/M (core)
CPI Y/Y
CPI Y/Y (core)
2:00 PM
FED RATE ANNOUNCEMENT
7:00 AM
MBA-APPLICATIONS
8:30 AM
HOUSING STARTS SAAR
BUILDING PERMITS SAAR
(May)
(Jun)
(Jun 6)
(Jun 13)
(Q1)
(May)
(May)
(May)
(May)
(Jun)
(Jun 12)
(May)
(May)
(May)
(May)
9:15 AM
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M
CAPACITY UTILIZATION
AUCTION: 4-WEEK BILLS $35B (prev)
(Jun)
8:30 AM
NEW YORK FED (EMPIRE)
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $24B, 6-M BILLS $24B
UNITED STATES
(M)
(M)
(L)
(L)
(L)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(L)
(M)
(H)
(L)
(L)
(H)
(M)
(M)
0.25%
1111K
1120K
0.3%
78.3%
CIBC
-$116.7B
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
1.8%
Speaker: 12:00 PM Loretta Mester (Cleveland)
SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Consensus Source: Bloomberg
Consensus
0.4%
8.0
2200K
275K
-$116.4B
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
1.8%
0.25%
1100K
1100K
#N/A N/AB
56
0.3%
78.4%
6.0
Consensus
0.7%
6.7
2265K
279K
-$113.5B
0.1%
0.3%
-0.2%
1.8%
0.25%
8.4%
1135K
1140K
$17.6B
54
-0.3%
78.2%
3.1
Prior
Week Ahead Calendar And Forecast
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 15-19, 2015
Week Ahead’s Market Call
by Nick Exarhos and Andrew Grantham
We’re going to start the week off on the wrong foot, but we’ll feel a bit better on the
Canadian outlook by the end of it. Influenced by the poor trade data last week, we’re
looking for a greater than 1% drop in manufacturing shipments on Monday. Wholesale trade
should make some of that up with a modest gain to be reported mid-week. A strong retail
sales report on Friday should leave us with a decent—if not overly impressive—GDP outlook
for April. Inflation data due out at the end of the week should see headline hold steady at
still-low levels, while we should see core slip a tick to 2.2%.
In the US, the Fed will likely sound more confident that the first quarter slowdown was
indeed “transitory”, although the updated “dot plot” projections for interest rates have
a greater chance of moving markets if they differ materially from March. CPI figures could
continue to look a little firmer, while housing and industrial production data should be
supportive of forecasts for a strong rebound in Q2 growth.
3
Week Ahead’s Key Canadian Number:
Consumer Price Index—May
5
(Friday, 8:30 a.m.)
4
Cdn Consumer Price Index
y/y % chg
BoC Target
3
Nick Exarhos (416) 956-6527
2
1
CPI m/m NSA
CPI yr/yr
Ex 8 volatile items m/m NSA
Ex 8 volatile items yr/yr
0
CIBC MktPrior
-1
May-12
0.5% 0.5% -0.1%
0.8%0.8%0.8%
0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
2.2% 2.1% 2.3%
May-13
All Items
May-14
May-15F
Ex. 8 volatile & indirect taxes
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
Forecast Implications—The last of 2014’s strong
monthly gains are set to drop out of the annual
calculation in June, which should also coincide with lows
we’re likely to see in headline inflation. Core will see a bit
more softness beyond that, as the slack which is opening
in the first half of 2015 is felt in the quarters ahead.
Headline prices slid a bit more than the street was
expecting in April, but May should see overall inflation
hold steady, albeit at the relatively muted 0.8% level.
That stability will be driven by a firming in gas prices,
along with food inflation holding near its almost 4% yr/yr
pace. On a month-on-month basis, the 0.5% NSA gain
will translate into a 0.3% seasonally adjusted advance.
Market Impact—We’re on consensus for headline’s year/
year rate but slightly above it for core. That shouldn’t be
enough to move markets.
Core prices were also tame in April, the adjusted monthly
gain of 0.1% coming in under the recent trend. May
should see core regain its 0.2% seasonally adjusted
pace (0.4% NSA), though that will still mean that on an
annual basis, the Bank of Canada’s preferred metric will
moderate once again by a tick to 2.2%.
Other Canadian Releases:
Retail Trade—April
(Friday, 8:30 a.m.)
Manufacturing Shipments—April
(Monday, 8:30 a.m.)
There’s no denying that last week’s trade report
didn’t provide much reason for optimism in April’s
manufacturing outlook. The weakness was widespread,
with essentially all categories registering declines on
the month. Auto-related shipments were up modestly,
and we’re hopeful that the production figures there will
show even more strength. That should limit the decline
in manufacturing to 1.2%, in what will still be a soft
data point for April GDP. Offsetting that somewhat will
be wholesaling results due on Wednesday, which should
show a 0.5% gain.
Autos will also lend a hand to the retailing results,
where we expect a 1.1% gain in headline sales. After
decelerating from stronger readings at the tail end of
2014, auto sales appear to be gaining momentum again.
There’s also reason to believe that if consumers felt good
enough to accelerate auto-related purchases, they likely
had the confidence to continue spending on other items
as well. As a result, look for the figure ex-autos to come
in at 0.6%, leaving the April GDP outlook looking decent
by the end of the week.
4
Week Ahead’s Key US Number:
Consumer Price Index—May
1.0
(Thursday, 8:30 a.m.)
US Consumer Price Index
y/y % chg
m/m % chg
3
0.5
Andrew Grantham (416) 956-3219
4
2
0.0
Headline CPI m/m
Headline CPI yr/yr
Core CPI m/m
Core CPI yr/yr
CIBC
0.6%
0.1%
0.2%
1.8%
1
Mkt
Prior
0.5% 0.1%
0.0% -0.2%
0.2% 0.3%
1.8% 1.8%
-0.5
-1.0
May-13
CPI (L)
CPI y-o-y (R)
CPI ex Food & Energy y-o-y (R)
Jan-14
Sep-14
0
-1
May-15F
Forecast Implications—Although core CPI is unlikely
to have climbed higher in May, it won’t take much in
terms of monthly gains for the annual rate to finish the
year above 2%. Firmer CPI prints will ensure that the Fed
is “reasonably confident” that inflation is on the path
back to its target before September, which remains our
prediction for the first rate hike.
Reflation rather than deflation is the talk of the town at
the moment. With oil and gasoline prices well off the
lows earlier in the year, readings for headline CPI will
start to look a lot firmer in the months ahead. Indeed,
we could be looking at a 0.6% month-on-month gain
in May (easily the strongest reading in more than two
years), which would be enough to drag the annual rate
out of negative territory.
Market Impact—We are a little above consensus for
headline inflation which could be mildly supportive for
the US$ and negative for fixed income. However, market
reaction is likely to be stronger if there’s any miss relative
to consensus on the core CPI print.
But it’s the trend in core CPI that will have the greatest
implications for monetary policy. Stronger recent readings
have edged the year-over-year rate up to 1.8%—a level
it’s likely to hold at in May. Medical service costs, which
were a source of strength last month, and shelter costs
could be drivers of core inflation again this month.
Other US Releases:
Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization—May
Housing Starts—May
(Monday, 9:15 a.m.)
(Tuesday, 8:30 a.m.)
The ISM manufacturing index firmed a little in May, the
decline in core capital goods orders appears to have
levelled off and hours worked were up modestly. However,
those aren’t enough for us to expect a particularly strong
industrial production print. A 0.3% increase would only
just offset the decline in the previous month, and would
be reliant in part on a bounce-back in utilities.
Starts surged in April, but so too did permit applications
which makes us more confident that the strength in
homebuilding wasn’t just a flash in the pan. While starts
may have eased a little in May from those elevated
levels, we’re a bit more confident than the consensus—
expecting a 1,111K rate. Longer term, recent increases in
household formation and better job prospects for younger
American’s should support stronger homebuilding.
5
Equity Insights
Nick Exarhos
A Longer Road to Crude Market Balance
Even More U.S. Production (L),
Pushing Out Oil Market Equilibrium (R)
Oil Market Excess Supply
(mn bbl/d)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
June
16Q3
16Q1
15Q3
15Q1
0.0
14Q1
9.8
9.6
9.4
9.2
9.0
8.8
8.6
8.4
8.2
8.0
US Crude Production
(mn bbl/day)
14Q3
Crude prices continue to trade within a narrow range
as the market digests sometimes countervailing pieces
of information. US crude inventories are starting to be
drawn down, and not in an insignificant fashion. But
there’s been somewhat bearish news elsewhere. The
US EIA revised its production estimates for the first
quarter of 2015, and in the process lifted the profile for
US production for this year by 240K bbl/day. And Saudi
Arabia continued to produce more than 10.3 mn bbl/
day through April which has helped drive total OPEC
production a million barrels per day above the official
30 mn bbl/day quota. Using the IEA’s data, the road to
balance in the oil market appears a more distant prospect.
May
-0.5
15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4
March
May
May+IEA Revs
Source: EIA, IEA, CIBC
An Eye on REITs
Commercial Property Yield
Over Nominal 10Yr GoC (%)
120
1.4
1.8
2.2
3.0
4.0
3.5
115
3.0
110
2.5
105
2.6
4.5
2.0
1.5
100
1.0
95
0.5
0.0
10yr Yield (L, Inv.)
REIT Index* ('14=100, R)
end of cycle
125
start of tightening cycle
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
May-14
1.0
Jan-14
REITs Trading With Rates (L),
But Premium Contracted Last Time We Tightened (R)
REITs are some of the more yield-sensitive equity products
trading on the TSX today, with the total market cap for
CIBC’s coverage universe trading almost in lockstep with
rates on Canadian government bonds. But could REITs
still be an attractive investment even if we’re likely to see
higher rates in the next year or two? History suggests
that the current cushion could compensate investors
for an increase in longer term rates. Yield premiums on
real estate investments came in by roughly 2 percentage
points from the start of the last tightening to the end
of it. A similar move this time around would more than
offset the expected increase in 10-year yields we’re
forecasting in the coming cycle, meaning that overreaction could present value.
2004/06
Now
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
*Total Market of REITs in CIBC’s coverage universe
U.S. Consumers: Like They Never Left
Back on track? More like never off of it when it comes
to the US consumer after the winter lull. Investors—
and economists—could be forgiven for doubting
the underlying strength in consumer spending,
and the broader economic recovery, after receiving
underwhelming retail sales reports in recent releases.
But this week’s data put those fears to bed, with
revisions helping bring the underlying pace in consumer
spending back in line with what prevailed before the Q1
slowdown. Stronger spending patterns powered by a
still-healthy pace in payrolls should continue to benefit
consumer-related stocks. In particular, we prefer names
related to household purchases, where spending has
been depressed since the recession, but should now also
benefit from positive trends in household formation.
Revisions (L) Help Lift U.S. Consumer Spending Profile (R)
0.2
0.0
2 Rel.
Ago
Mar
6
1 Rel.
Ago
Now
Apr
May
May-15
0.4
Mar-15
0.6
Jan-15
0.8
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
3-mo Annualized Pace
in Core Sales (%)
Nov-14
Core Retail Sales
(M/M % Chg)
Sep-14
1.0
Source: US Census, CIBC
Currency Currents
Andrew Grantham
Oil Not the Only Headache for C$
Weighting of Commodity Price Index Shifts to Non-Energy (L),
But Ex-Energy Prices Are Also Lower on Aggregate (R)
100
2014
2015
90
30
70
20
60
10
50
0
Energy
Energy
Ex-Energy
Non-Energy
Apr-15
80
Jan-15
40
Oct-14
50
Jul-14
60
Commodity Price
Index (Jul'14 = 100)
110
Commodity Price
Index Weights (%)
Apr-14
70
Jan-14
The slump in oil price has resulted in a sharp widening
in the Canadian trade deficit, and a slump in business
investment severe enough to drive Q1 GDP into negative
territory. However, it isn’t the only commodity weighing
on Canada’s external trade recently. Ex-energy export
prices are also down by 10% since mid-2014, led by
declines in metals and lumber prices. And while we’re
relatively upbeat on the latter, metals prices could see a
slower recovery. The impact of softer commodity prices on
Canadian trade should keep the C$ closer to the 80-cent
mark, suggesting the recent rally is unlikely to continue.
Source: BoC, CIBC
A JOLT Coming for the Greenback?
Job Opening Rate Overtakes Hires For First Time
There’s been plenty of good news for the US economy
recently, including the strong payrolls and retail
sales figures. One that’s gone relatively unnoticed
by comparison is the job opening figures. Openings
continued to surge in April, to such an extent that the
rate rose above the hire rate for the first time in the
series history. That could mean employers are getting
pickier about who they employ, but could also point to
skills shortages. The latter would suggest that further
wage pressures may be in the pipeline, which would
keep policymakers on track to start hiking interest rates
in September. And it’s another reason to remain bullish
on the US$ in the near-term.
5.0
Difference
Job Opening Rate
Hire Rate
%
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Feb-15
Apr-14
Jun-13
Aug-12
Oct-11
Feb-10
Dec-10
Apr-09
Jun-08
Oct-06
Aug-07
Feb-05
Dec-05
Jun-03
Apr-04
Oct-01
Aug-02
Dec-00
-1.0
Source: BLS, CIBC
Yen Real Effective Exchange Rate Already at Very Low Levels
Getting Real on the Yen
200
One currency which the US$ may struggle to strengthen
against is the yen. While further stimulus from the
BoJ could well be on the cards, policymakers in Japan
appear much less concerned about weakening the
currency further to generate export performance. In fact,
Governor Kuroda noted that a further weakening of the
yen was “unlikely”, pointing out that the real effective
exchange rate was already at extremely low levels.
Indeed, by that measure the currency is at levels not seen
since the early 1980’s. So while there could be a little
more downside against a resurgent US$, the yen may not
underperform on other crosses as previously expected.
160
Yen Effective Exchange Rate
Index Jan'90 = 100
120
80
Nominal
Real
40
7
Nov-13
Jun-11
Jan-09
Aug-06
Mar-04
Oct-01
May-99
Dec-96
Jul-94
Feb-92
Sep-89
Apr-87
Nov-84
Jun-82
Jan-80
0
Source: BIS, BoJ, CIBC
CANADIAN RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
June/July 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
8
WEDNESDAY
9
THURSDAY
10
NEW HOUSING PRICE
INDEX
8:30 AM
Bank of Canada
Governor Poloz & Sr Dep
Gov speak after Financial
System Review
@ 11:15 AM ET
Bank of Canada
Sr. Dep. Governor Wilkins
speaks in Montreal
at 4:15 PM ET
22
12
CAPACITY UTILIZATION
8:30 AM
LEVEL (%)
TOTALMANUF.
14:Q383.3 83.6
14:Q483.5 83.7
15:Q182.7 82.9
BUILDING PERMITS ($)
8:30 AM M
M
(RES)(NON-RES)
FEB
2.2-5.0
MAR 8.124.8
APR
1.230.2
SURVEY OF
MANUFACTURING
8:30 AM
SHIPMENTS
M
Y
FEB -2.2-2.4
MAR 2.90.3
APR
11
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
SURVEY
8:30 AM
HOUSING STARTS
8:15 AM
000’s (AR)
TOTAL SINGLES
MAR190 52
APR183 59
MAY202 59
15
FRIDAY
16
INT’L TRANSACTIONS
IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET
8:30 AM
BONDS MONEY S
TOCKSTOT
MARKET
FEB
9.9
-2.21.69.4
MAR21.0 -5.3
6.8 22.5
APR
17
18
WHOLESALE TRADE
8:30 AM
19
RETAIL TRADE
8:30 AM (Current$)
MY
FEB 1.52.4
MAR 0.73.1
APR
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
MAR
0.71.2
APR
-0.10.8
MAY
23
24
25
26
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT,
EARNINGS & HOURS
8:30 AM
29
INDUSTRIAL PRICES
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
MAR 0.2-1.8
APR -0.9-2.4
MAY
6
INTERNATIONAL
RESERVES
8:15 AM
$BN
$BN
CHANGELEVEL
APR 0.16277.8
MAY-0.574 77.3
JUN
30
GDP BY INDUSTRY
8:30 AM
(2002$)
GDPIND.PROD.
MM
FEB-0.1-0.7
MAR-0.2 -1.2
APR
2
1
3
CANADA DAY
(HOLIDAY)
(Markets Closed)
7
8
MERCHANDISE TRADE
8:30 AM
$MN
12 MO.
BALANCE
MAR -3,853-4,624
APR -2,974-7,725
MAY
BUILDING PERMITS ($)
8:30 AM M
M
(RES)(NON-RES)
MAR 8.124.8
APR
1.230.2
MAY
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
SURVEY
8:30 AM
9
HOUSING STARTS
8:15 AM
000’s (AR)
TOTAL SINGLES
APR183 59
MAY202 59
JUN
NEW HOUSING PRICE
INDEX
8:30 AM
10
LABOUR
FORCE SURVEY
8:30 AM
AVG
EMPLOYUNEMP HRLY
(HSHOLD) RATEEARN
MY%Y
APR
-0.10.8 6.82.4
MAY
0.31.1 6.82.9
JUN
IVEY PURCHASING
MANAGERS’ INDEX
10:00 AM
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets Inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Human Resources Development Canada and the Bank of Canada.
8
U.S. RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
June/July 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
WEDNESDAY
9
8
THURSDAY
3-Yr NOTE AUCTION
10-Yr NOTE AUCTION
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
15
CAPACITY UTIL/
IND. PROD.
9:15 AM LEV
M
Y
MAR 78.6-0.3 2.3
APR 78.2-0.3 1.9
MAY
16
17
HOUSING
STARTS
8:30 AMMIL (AR)
M
MAR0.944 4.9
APR 1.13520.2
MAY
CPI
M(SA)
(NSA)
MAR0.2
APR
0.1
MAY
18
Y
19
-0.1
1.2
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX
10:00 PM
Fed Chair Yellen speaks
23
DURABLE
GOODS ORDERS
8:30 AM
M
Y
MAR 5.1-0.7
APR -0.5-2.3
MAY
24
GDP
8:30 AM (AR)
REAL IMPLICIT
GDPDEFLATOR
14:Q4(F)2.2
0.2
15:Q1(P)-0.7
-0.1
15:Q1(F)
CORPORATE PROFITS
8:30 AM
2-Yr NOTE AUCTION
5-Yr NOTE AUCTION
2,5,7-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
1
ISM MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM COMP.
PRICES
INDEXINDEX
APR
MAY
JUN
51.540.5
52.849.5
LIGHT VEHICLES
SALES MIL (AR)
Y
APR
16.4583.1
MAY
17.7146.3
JUN
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (F)
9:55 AM
2
EMPLOY. SITUATION
8:30 AM
NON- CIVAVG
FARMUNEMP HRLY
PAYROLL RATE EARN
(000s)M
%
Y
APR
2215.41.9
MAY
2805.52.0
JUN
FACTORY ORDERS
10:00 AM M(SA)
Y(NSA)
MAR 2.2-5.2
APR -0.4-6.4
MAY
3
INDEPENDENCE DAY OBSERVED
(HOLIDAY)
(Markets Closed, Banks Open)
3, 10-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
3-Yr BOND ANNOUNCEMENT
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
7
GOODS &
SERV. BALANCE (BOP) $B
8:30 AM GDS SERV TOT
MAR -70.0 19.4-50.6
APR -60.7 19.8-40.9
MAY
26
7-Yr NOTE AUCTION
ADP SURVEY
8:15 AM
CONSUMER CREDIT
3:00 PM
25
PERS. INC & OUT.
8:30 AM SAVING
INCOMECONS RATE
M MAR
MAR
0.00.55.2
APR0.40.05.6
MAY
30
S&P/CASE-SHILLER
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
9:00 AM
CHICAGO PMI
9:45 AM
2,5,7-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
ISM NON-MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P)
9:55 AM
(NSA)
-0.8
-1.3
-1.0
LEADING INDICATOR
10:00 AM
NEW HOME SALES
10:00 AM
6
BUSINESS INVENTORIES
10:00 AM
30-Yr BOND AUCTION
8:30 AM
29
PPI
8:30 AM M (SA)
Y
MAR0.2
APR-0.4
MAY0.5
CURRENT ACCOUNT BAL.
8:30 AM
NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TICS
4:00 PM
EXISTING HOME SALES
10:00 AM
12
RETAIL SALES
8:30 AM
M
Y
MAR 1.52.1
APR 0.21.5
MAY 1.22.7
FOMC Rate Decision
22
11
10
TREASURY BUDGET
2:00 PM
FRIDAY
8
9
10
FOMC Minutes
CONSUMER CREDIT
3:00 PM
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Federal Reserve Board.
9
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Exchange and a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund, (b) in the United Kingdom, CIBC World Markets plc, which is regulated by the Financial Services Authority, and (c) in Australia, CIBC Australia
Limited, a member of the Australian Stock Exchange and regulated by the ASIC (collectively, “CIBC”) and (d) in the United States either by (i) CIBC World Markets Inc. for distribution only to U.S. Major Institutional
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The information and any statistical data contained herein were obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that they are accurate or complete, and they should not be relied upon
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This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, Internet web sites. CIBC has not reviewed the linked Internet web site of any third party and takes no responsibility for the contents thereof. Each such
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in prosecution.
10

THE WEEK AHEAD - CIBC World Markets

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